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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A New Vision and A More Rational Process Will Advance Space Life Support Through Better Projects

Many space life support assumptions are obviously mistaken but they are generally accepted because they mutually support each other and because they advance a mistaken futuristic vision of closed human ecosystems in space. Many projects have been mistakenly selected to increase life support system closure or reduce launch mass in order to implement this impractical vision. Project members rarely challenge their project’s assumptions and guiding vision. Systems engineering including cost, reliability, risk, and system trade-offs has been very strongly discouraged to prevent rational criticism of these dubious assumptions, the projects, and the ecosystem vision. A more realistic vision can define better near term life support goals and future aspirations that will improve mission support and increase public interest. Given more realistic goals, it will be possible to develop effective technical alternatives, use open rational project selection methods, conduct professional project management, and make swifter progress in the inevitable human advance into space. The current unworkable human space settlement scenario involves moon visits and permanent bases, zero gravity trips to Mars, Mars visits and bases, all leading to extensive human settlements on the moon and Mars. This is unrealistic because the moon and Mars have less than Earth normal gravity and high radiation that can seriously damage human health. A better alternative would use rotating space colonies that produce Earth gravity and are radiation shielded. The attractive fantasy of reproducing terrestrial ecology in space should be replaced by the idea of building a closed system based on advancing technology such as artificial photosynthesis. Past mistaken projects include growing plants for food to replicate terrestrial food sources, recovering small amounts of water from difficult to process waste to achieve high system closure, and using newly designed, lighter, but unreliable hardware to reduce launch mass. The political process supporting the false assumptions, projects, and vision has deliberately prevented the usual systems engineering and cost-benefit analysis. We are going to do much better.

Harry W. Jones↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Next Generation Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator Project - Overview and Progress Status

The Next Generation Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (Next Gen RTG) Project is a spaceflight system project within NASA’s Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program. The project, in partnership with the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) / Battelle Energy Alliance (BEA), will build and deliver an unfueled, flight qualified Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (RTG) system based on RPS Program needs. The Next Gen RTG Project aims to assure the availability of high-power, vacuum-rated RTGs to enable future deep space missions. The Project team is developing that capability through a multi-phase effort that leverages the heritage General Purpose Heat Source - RTG (GPHS-RTG) design and available legacy hardware. The Project’s primary aim is to re-establish the capability to manufacture a silicon germanium (SiGe) unicouple based thermoelectric converter and associated hardware with minimal changes to the heritage GPHS-RTG design. The project will also refurbish the GPHS-RTG Flight Unit #5 (F-5) located at INL and verify its compliance with heritage GPHS-RTG requirements. This paper will detail the project’s plans for the development of these systems. Management approaches, technical challenges, and risks will also be discussed.

Radioisotope↗

DOE OSTI2020

Systematic Analysis of Drivers and Barriers of Cross-Sectorial Learning Between Nuclear and Oil and Gas Decommissioning Projects - 20139

Project and megaproject management in the energy sector have historically focused on the planning and delivery of the construction of infrastructure. Therefore, policies are predominantly oriented to support the construction of infrastructure rather than its decommissioning. However, globally, several facilities have reached (or will soon reach) their end-of-life and need to be decommissioned. These facilities span across the energy sector, including nuclear power plants and oil and gas rigs, whose decommissioning present unprecedented techno-socio-economic challenges. Moreover, globally, their decommissioning cost is estimated to reach hundreds of billions of US dollars and this budget keeps increasing, with limited knowledge-transfer across industries to mitigate the spiraling increase of this figure. Cross-sectorial knowledge-transfer is a way to tackle this matter and improve the planning and delivery of decommissioning and waste management projects. The aim of this research is to build a road-map based on cross-sectorial industrial experience, designed to promote the sharing of good practices between projects both within and across industries dealing with major decommissioning and waste management challenges. To reach this aim, the tacit knowledge of senior practitioners on several large scale nuclear and oil and gas decommissioning projects is made explicit by the means of semi-structured interviews, systematically analyzed through directed content analysis. The results of this analysis include a list of good practices that could and should be transferred to nuclear decommissioning projects, including the need to promote the adoption of incentives explicitly linked to the project deliverables, and to develop long-term plans to support smooth transition from operations to decommissioning. Suggestions about how the knowledge-transfer can be promoted within and across organizations are also discussed. In this way, this research provides practical guidance for project managers and policymakers on how to support the planning and delivery of projects with improved performance. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding uncertainties in projections of western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis

Reliable projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activities in the western North Pacific (WNP) are crucial for climate policy-making in densely-populated coastal Asia. Existing projections, however, exhibit considerable uncertainties with unclear sources. Here, based on future projections by the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate models, we identify a new and prevailing source of uncertainty arising from different TC identification schemes. Notable differences in projections of detected TCs and empirical genesis potential indices are found to be caused by inconsistent changes in dynamic and thermodynamic environmental factors affecting TC formations. While model uncertainty holds the secondary importance, we show large potential in reducing it through improved model simulations of present-day TC characteristics. Internal variability noticeably impacts near-term projections of the WNP tropical cyclogenesis, while the relative contribution of scenario uncertainty remains small. Our findings provide valuable insights into model development and TC projections, thereby aiding in adaptation decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Going South: Warnings from the Largest Project Engineering Failure in Modern History

NASA’s successful conduct of the Apollo Program greatly enhanced the prestige of the United States and remains broadly accepted as America’s gift “for all Mankind.” NASA’s Artemis Program to return humanity to the Moon promises to again reveal America’s leadership in this field. In preparation for the initiation of Artemis and its predecessor project Constellation, NASA thoroughly examined space program precedents. There remains, however, another relevant precedent which has not been examined in this context. Though this project involved technology radically different from that managed by NASA, its scope and environment in many ways parallel NASA’s large programs. This project was initiated by a private sector team that had, ten years before, successfully completed an effort that, at a cost of $275 billion (in 2021 USD), had stimulated new technology, had brought economic growth, had established their country as the world leader in engineering innovation, and, though it was a commercial success, had been broadly accepted as their nation’s gift “to all Mankind.” The new project was inspired by popular belief that private capital could again be marshalled to enhance national prestige and make yet another major contribution to the progress of Humanity. This new effort was predicted to require eight years and $258 billion. However, after the passage of nine years, achievement of only 45% complete on the baseline design, and expenditures 96% beyond the baseline cost, the project collapsed amid bankruptcy, political scandal, and criminal prosecution. While the private sector team that carried out this project was exceptionally well educated and experienced in the field, their efforts resulted in what remains (in terms of the money wasted) the largest project engineering failure in modern history. This paper examines what went wrong.

Project Management↗

DOE OSTI2025

Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future

Climate assessments consolidate our understanding of possible future climate conditions as represented by climate projections, which are largely based on the output of global climate models. Over the past 30 years, the scientific insights gained from climate projections have been refined through model structural improvements, emerging constraints on climate feedbacks, and increased computational efficiency. Within the same period, the process of assessing and evaluating information from climate projections has become more defined and targeted to inform users. As the size and audience of climate assessments has expanded, the framing, relevancy, and accessibility of projections has become increasingly important. This paper reviews the use of climate projections in national climate assessments (NCA) while highlighting challenges and opportunities that have emerged over time. Reflections and lessons learned address the continuous process to understand the broadening assessment audience and evolving user needs. Insights for future NCA development include (1) identifying benchmarks and standards for evaluating downscaled datasets, (2) expanding efforts to gather research gaps and user needs to inform how climate projections are presented in the assessment (3) providing practitioner guidance on the use, interpretation, and reporting of climate projections and uncertainty to better inform decision-making.

Assessment↗

DOE OSTI2021

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. In this work, we find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Energy Options Analysis Project (Final Report)

This Bear River Band of Rohnerville Rancheria (BRB) Energy Options Analysis Project provides a rigorous and comprehensive near-term renewable energy implementation plan that aligns with the BRB’s long term strategic vision of “zero net annual utility energy consumption.” Final recommendations were arrived at by following four key project phases:A gas and electricity load assessment was conducted for all existing buildings using historic consumption data, and projected loads of new or anticipated buildings using building designs. A renewable energy resource assessment was conducted that estimated the gross generation potential of solar and wind, constrained to areas that could potentially be developed. Other renewable generation technologies were not considered feasible to meet the loads of the BRB. Demand-side efficiency and fuel switching opportunities were identified that can reduce electrical and gas consumption. These opportunities were not integrated into the load assessment in order to provide a conservative implementation plan, but are recommended to be pursued in order to cost-optimize projects during a feasibility assessment. A strategic vision advisory committee was organized and consulted when iterating on the viability of possible projects. These project phases resulted in finalizing the following three solar PV projects for the near term, which also lay the foundation for a future community-scale or multiple-facility microgrid for added resiliency. Additional solar PV on the hillside south of the Tish-Non Community Center. Solar plus battery storage microgrid at the Pump & Play fuel station. Solar PV at the Casino.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2022

The Importance of Internal Climate Variability in Climate Impact Projections

Uncertainty in climate projections is driven by three components: scenario uncertainty, intermodel uncertainty, and internal variability. Although socioeconomic climate impact studies increasingly take into account the first two components, little attention has been paid to the role of internal variability, although underestimating this uncertainty may lead to underestimating the socioeconomic costs of climate change. Using large ensembles from seven coupled general circulation models with a total of 414 model runs, we partition the climate uncertainty in classic dose–response models relating county-level corn yield, mortality, and per-capita gross domestic product to temperature in the continental United States. The partitioning of uncertainty depends on the time frame of projection, the impact model, and the geographic region. Internal variability represents more than 50% of the total climate uncertainty in certain projections, including mortality projections for the early 21st century, although its relative influence decreases over time. We recommend including uncertainty due to internal variability for many projections of temperature-driven impacts, including early-century and midcentury projections, projections in regions with high internal variability such as the Upper Midwest United States, and impacts driven by nonlinear relationships.

climate impacts↗

DOE OSTI2021

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Advanced Catalyst Synthesis and Characterization (ACSC) Project WBS 2.5.4.304; 303; 305

The Advanced Catalyst Synthesis and Characterization (ACSC) project, in close collaboration with the Chemical Catalysis for Bioenergy (ChemCatBio) Consortium enabling projects, CatCost, and the Engineering of Catalyst Scale-Up project, (1) provides fundamental insight into working catalysts leading to actionable recommendations for all of the ChemCatBio catalysis projects, (2) addresses overarching catalysis challenges central to the ChemCatBio Consortium, and (3) adapts and applies new synthesis methodologies and in situ/operando characterization capabilities to meet the evolving needs of the catalysis projects. The outcome is a transition from empirical catalyst development to rational design through the prediction of materials with targeted properties based on advanced characterization combined with computational modeling, and the synthesis of next generation catalysts with predicted structures that yield demonstrated improvements in catalytic performance. In FY18, the ACSC helped to demonstrate the utility of the complete catalyst and process development cycle for dimethyl ether to high-octane gasoline over metal-modified zeolite catalysts for the Upgrading of C1 Building Blocks project, and in FY21 will leverage capabilities, expertise, and computational models established for this effort to target next-generation catalysts for ethanol to distillates for the Upgrading of C2 Intermediates project with enhanced performance in half the time.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States (U.S.), Central America and the Caribbean. The changes are computed using an ensemble of 31 models for three future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 ensemble reproduces the observed annual cycle and distribution of mean annual temperature and precipitation with biases between – 0.93 and 1.27 °C and – 37.90 to 58.45%, respectively, for most of the region. However, modeled precipitation is too large over the western and Midwestern U.S. during winter and spring and over the North American monsoon region in summer, while too small over southern Central America. Temperature is projected to increase over the entire domain under all three SSPs, by as much as 6 °C under SSP5-8.5, and with more pronounced increases in the northern latitudes over the regions that receive snow in the present climate. Annual precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century have more uncertainty, as expected, and exhibit a meridional dipole-like pattern, with precipitation increasing by 10–30% over much of the U.S. and decreasing by 10–40% over Central America and the Caribbean, especially over the monsoon region. Seasonally, precipitation over the eastern and central subregions is projected to increase during winter and spring and decrease during summer and autumn. Over the monsoon region and Central America, precipitation is projected to decrease in all seasons except autumn. The analysis was repeated on a subset of 9 models with the best performance in the reference period; however, no significant difference was found, suggesting that model bias is not strongly influencing the projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Costs of mitigating the environmental impacts of hydropower projects in the United States

Developers are required to mitigate the environmental impacts of hydropower projects in the United States (U.S.) but there is very little accessible information on the associated costs. This work compiles and analyses a dataset of environmental impacts mitigation costs for 182 hydropower projects based on documents obtained from the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The analysis shows that environmental costs vary wildly across hydropower project classes and mitigation measures, even when normalized by plant capacity. Capital costs per kilowatt are generally higher for relicensed conventional hydropower plants, and lower for new and relicensed pumped storage hydropower plants, relative to other project classes. Smaller plants tend to spend a higher share of total project costs on mitigating environmental impacts than larger plants, and measures related to Aquatic Species, Project Operations, and Recreation have the highest capital cost per kilowatt. These findings mean that environmental costs could become a key decision variable for new hydropower developments in the U.S. due to the small scale of most of the remaining potential and the increasing stringency of environmental requirements. Therefore, technologies to reduce the environmental impacts and costs of hydropower would be important for future project developments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Enhanced Reservoir Evaporation Losses From CMIP6‐Based Future Projections in the Contiguous United States

Abstract Enhanced reservoir evaporation has become an emerging concern regarding water loss, especially when compounded with the ever‐increasing water demand. In this study, we evaluated the evaporation rates and losses for 678 major reservoirs (representing nearly 90% of total storage capacity) in the Contiguous United States over historical baseline (1980–2019), near‐term (2020–2039), and mid‐term (2040–2059) future periods. The evaporation rate was estimated using the Lake Evaporation Model (LEM), an advanced lake evaporation model that addresses both heat storage and fetch effects, driven by multi‐ensemble downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects 6 (CMIP6) projections under the SSP585 emission scenario. The results project that the evaporation loss may increase by 2.5 × 10 7 m 3 /yr through the research period (1980–2059). Among all regions, the Rio Grande is projected to have the largest increasing rate in the near‐term and mid‐term future, with values of 7.11% of 10.25%, respectively. At the seasonal scale, the most significant increase in the evaporation rate is projected during the fall. The evaporation is projected to increase faster than the streamflow over many of the regions in the southwestern US during the summer/fall, suggesting that the shortage of water will be further exacerbated. The climate models contribute the most to the variance, as compared to the other components related to the projection of evaporation losses (e.g., hydrological model, downscaling method, and historical meteorological data set). These findings demonstrate the need to consider accelerated water loss through open water evaporation in long‐term water resources planning across various spatiotemporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Historical evaluation and future projections of compound heatwave and drought extremes over the conterminous United States in CMIP6 *

Abstract Independently, both droughts and heatwaves can induce severe impacts on human and natural systems. However, when these two climate extremes occur concurrently in a given region, their compound impacts are often more pronounced. With the improvement in both the spatiotemporal resolution and representation of complex climate processes in the global climate models (GCMs), they are increasingly used to study future changes in these extremes and associated regional impacts. However, GCM selection for such impact assessments is generally based on historical performance and/or future mean changes, without considering individual or compound extremes. In contrast, this study evaluates historical performance and projected changes in heatwaves, droughts, and compound heatwave-droughts using an ensemble of GCMs from the latest Phase 6 of Coupled Models Intercomparison Project at a regional scale across the conterminous United States. Additionally, we explore the inter-model differences in the projected changes that are associated with various characteristics of extremes and the choice of drought indices. Our analysis reveals considerable variation among the GCMs, as well as substantial differences in the projected changes based on the choice of drought indices and region of interest. For example, the projected increases in both the frequency and intensity of drought and associated compound extreme days, based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index far exceed those derived from the standard precipitation index. Further, the largest changes in the frequency of compound extremes are projected over the Southwest, South Central, and parts of the Southeast while the smallest changes are projected over the Northeast. Overall, this study provides important insights for the interpretation and selection of GCMs for future assessment studies that are crucial for the development of regional adaptation strategies in the face of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part II: Statistical Downscaling

Abstract Capacity factors (CFs) derived from daily expected power at 22 operating wind farms in different regions of North America are used as predictands to train statistical downscaling algorithms using output from ERA5. The statistical downscaling models are then used to make CF projections for a suite of CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs). Downscaling is performed using a hybrid statistical approach that employs synoptic types derived using k -means clustering applied to sea level pressure fields with variance corrections applied as a function of the pressure gradient intensity. ESMs exhibit marked variability in terms of the skill with which the frequency of synoptic types and pressure gradients are reproduced relative to ERA5, and that differential skill is used to infer differential credibility in the associated CF projections. Projections of median annual mean CF [P50(CF)] in each 20-yr period from 1980 to 2099 show evidence of declines at most wind farms except in parts of the southern Great Plains, although the magnitude of the changes is strongly dependent on the ESM. For example, P50(CF) in 2080–99 deviate from those in 1980–99 by from −3.1 to +0.2 percentage points in the Northeast. The largest-magnitude declines in P50(CF) ranging from −3.9 to −2 percentage points are projected for the southern West Coast. CF trends exhibit marked seasonality and are strongly linked to changes in the relative intensity of future synoptic patterns, with much less impact from shifts in the occurrence of synoptic types over time. Internal climate modes continue to play a significant role in inducing interannual variability in wind power production, even under high radiative forcing scenarios. Significance Statement We describe how future climate changes may affect wind resources and wind power generation. Near-term changes in projected wind power electricity generation potential at operating wind farms over North America are small, but by the end of the current century electricity production is projected to decrease in many areas but may increase in parts of the southern Great Plains. The amount of change in projected wind power production is a strong function of the Earth system model that is downscaled and also depends on the continued presence of internally forced climate variability. An additional dependence on the amount of greenhouse gas–induced global warming indicates the transition of the energy sector to low-carbon sources may assist in maintaining the abundant U.S. wind resource.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

(SPT-)LSM theorems from projective non-invertible symmetries

Projective symmetries are ubiquitous in quantum lattice models and can be leveraged to constrain their phase diagram and entanglement structure. In this paper, we investigate the consequences of projective algebras formed by non-invertible symmetries and lattice translations in a generalized 1+1 1 + 1 D quantum XY model based on group-valued qudits. This model is specified by a finite group G G and enjoys a projective \mathsf{Rep}(G)× Z(G) 𝖱 𝖾 𝗉 ( G ) × Z ( G ) and translation symmetry, where symmetry operators obey a projective algebra in the presence of symmetry defects. For invertible symmetries, such projective algebras imply Lieb-Schultz-Mattis (LSM) anomalies. However, this is not generally true for non-invertible symmetries, and we derive a condition on G G for the existence of an LSM anomaly. When this condition is not met, we prove an SPT-LSM theorem: any unique and gapped ground state is necessarily a non-invertible weak symmetry protected topological (SPT) state with non-trivial entanglement, for which we construct an example fixed-point Hamiltonian. The projectivity also affects the dual symmetries after gauging \mathsf{Rep}(G)× Z(G) 𝖱 𝖾 𝗉 ( G ) × Z ( G ) sub-symmetries, giving rise to non-Abelian and non-invertible dipole symmetries, as well as non-invertible translations. We complement our analysis with the SymTFT, where the projectivity causes it to be a topological order non-trivially enriched by translations. Throughout the paper, we develop techniques for gauging \mathsf{Rep}(G) 𝖱 𝖾 𝗉 ( G ) symmetry and inserting its symmetry defects on the lattice, which are applicable to other non-invertible symmetries.

Pace, Salvatore D. (ORCID:0000000306093335)↗

DOE OSTI2019

AOI2 - Initial Engineering, Testing, and Design of a Commercial-Scale Postcombustion CO 2 Capture System on an Existing Coal-Fired Generating Unit (Project Carbon)

The continued long-term use of North Dakota lignite is likely dependent on creating a business case for carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) that also addresses society’s desire to reduce carbon emissions. CCUS coupled with enhanced oil recovery appears to be the most feasible option for utilities to sustain and grow the lignite industry. Establishing a market where lignite-powered utilities provide carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to oil producers depends upon having a cost-effective method to capture CO 2 . The application of CO 2 capture technology to lignite-fired flue gas has challenges in addition to the cost of capture, including the effects of the buildup of heat-stable salts, aerosol formation, degradation of solvents or solid sorbents, or subsequent solvent loss. Lignite, especially North Dakota lignite, presents its own set of challenges that include the combination of high sodium, sulfur, and ash contents; NO x reduction; and footprint limitations. Project Carbon was designed to address these technical barriers and provide pre-FEED (preliminary front-end engineering and design) information necessary for additional commercial demonstrations to move forward. A long-term pilot-scale evaluation of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ (MHI’s) KS-1™ solvent at Minnkota Power Cooperative’s lignite-fired Milton R. Young Station Unit 2 (MRY2) was a major objective of the project. The purpose of the test was to demonstrate the technology’s compatibility with MRY2’s flue gas over an extended period of time. During the long-term test, aerosol sampling and measurement were performed, and a pilot-scale baghouse was tested to determine the effect of bag material and operation on aerosol concentrations in the flue gas. Project engineering and design work were performed to support the other major project objective: a pre-FEED study of CO 2 capture at MRY2. Finally, a techno-economic assessment (TEA) of the application of CO 2 capture to MRY2 was performed. This project was performed over a period of 28 months, with a total budget of $12,700,000. The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Energy Technology Laboratory, through the Energy & Environmental Research Center’s (EERC’s) Cooperative Agreement, the North Dakota Industrial Commission, and industry partners ALLETE and Minnkota Power Cooperative, funded the project. The pilot-scale test system at MRY2 performed very well for the continuous test period of 83 days. The CO 2 capture plant achieved stable operation while utilizing MHI’s KS-1™ solvent and the MHI amine emission reduction unit. No major concerns were encountered when capturing CO 2 from lignite-fired flue gas. Challenges were encountered because the cooling water temperature was warmer than needed for the capture system to operate efficiently. This affected the ability of the solvent to capture CO 2 and promoted solvent loss through solvent entrainment caused by high CO 2 gas temperature within a cyclone separator. The KS-1™ solvent and the lignite-derived flue gas were analyzed during the long-term test. Analysis of the solvent indicates that, although some metals and heat-stable salts increased over the course of the long-term test, they were at levels that can be treated with filtration and reclaiming and do not pose a concern for effective solvent operation. Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometry was successfully used to determine the composition of the lignite-derived flue gas as well as concentrations of select components of the flue gas at various locations within the EERC’s CO 2 capture system. The formation of aerosols during the capture process is of interest, as are approaches for their reduction, especially in a baghouse. Testing of aerosol removal was performed using the EERC’s portable baghouse. It was found that both Ryton and polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) membrane bags were effective at reducing the level of aerosols during steady-state operation. During backpulse events, however, the amount of aerosols passing through the bags was an order of magnitude lower for the Ryton bags than the PTFE membrane bags. The testing showed that proper design of the baghouse air-to-cloth ratio as well as minimization of backpulsing can dramatically reduce the amount of aerosols that pass through the bags and remain in the flue gas stream exiting a baghouse system. A technology maturation plan (TMP) was performed to enable successful development of the Kansai Mitsubishi Carbon Dioxide Recovery® (KM CDR®) Process for application to a combustion flue gas for which the process has not yet been demonstrated. In the TMP, new challenges to the MHI CO 2 capture technology during its application to MRY2 were identified. These challenges included capture from lignite-fired (as opposed to subbituminous coal-fired) flue gas, a larger scope than previous applications of the technology, and implementation in a colder climate that could affect process and equipment operability. Because MRY2 is located where stack icing in the winter could be problematic, a rime icing study was performed. Rime icing modeling indicated that, under both 100% and 50% operating loads, there is a potential for many icing events during any given part of the year in which below-freezing weather conditions exist. The models showed that a critical amount of rime ice could be formed at the stack top during two or more events per year. CO 2 capture plant stack height and location will need to be determined in order to minimize the formation of rime ice. It was found that the integration of the MHI CO 2 capture process into the normal operation of the MRY2 steam turbine is a viable alternative to a cogeneration facility to provide steam and power for the carbon capture facility. The research performed under this project showed that CO 2 capture at a lignite-fired power plant can successfully be performed. No known fatal flaws that would prevent the continued development of the MRY2 CO 2 capture facility were identified during the pre-FEED study. A TEA performed following DOE methodology shows that applying capture technology to MRY2 may not only meet but exceed the DOE-recognized state-of-the-art baseline.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

2020 Mitigation and Monitoring Report for the Arroyo Las Positas Management Project

This report describes maintenance, monitoring, and mitigation conducted in 2020 as part of the Arroyo Las Positas Management Project (the project) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL’s) Livermore Site. The purpose of this project is to enhance habitat value for the California red-legged frog (Rana draytonii) within the LLNL reach of Arroyo Las Positas and protect LLNL facilities from flooding. The project description, in addition to the monitoring and mitigation requirements for this project are described in the October 2015 Revised Mitigation and Monitoring Plan for the Arroyo Las Positas Management Project (MMP) and the Formal Consultation on the Proposed Arroyo Maintenance Project on Arroyo Las Positas at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (biological opinion; Service File Numbers 1-1-97-F-173 and 1-1-98-I-1562).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗