Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Probabilistic models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

A Boltzmann machine for the organization of intelligent machines

In the present technological society, there is a major need to build machines that would execute intelligent tasks operating in uncertain environments with minimum interaction with a human operator. Although some designers have built smart robots, utilizing heuristic ideas, there is no systematic approach to design such machines in an engineering manner. Recently, cross-disciplinary research from the fields of computers, systems AI and information theory has served to set the foundations of the emerging area of the design of intelligent machines. Since 1977 Saridis has been developing an approach, defined as Hierarchical Intelligent Control, designed to organize, coordinate and execute anthropomorphic tasks by a machine with minimum interaction with a human operator. This approach utilizes analytical (probabilistic) models to describe and control the various functions of the intelligent machine structured by the intuitively defined principle of Increasing Precision with Decreasing Intelligence (IPDI) (Saridis 1979). This principle, even though resembles the managerial structure of organizational systems (Levis 1988), has been derived on an analytic basis by Saridis (1988). The purpose is to derive analytically a Boltzmann machine suitable for optimal connection of nodes in a neural net (Fahlman, Hinton, Sejnowski, 1985). Then this machine will serve to search for the optimal design of the organization level of an intelligent machine. In order to accomplish this, some mathematical theory of the intelligent machines will be first outlined. Then some definitions of the variables associated with the principle, like machine intelligence, machine knowledge, and precision will be made (Saridis, Valavanis 1988). Then a procedure to establish the Boltzmann machine on an analytic basis will be presented and illustrated by an example in designing the organization level of an Intelligent Machine. A new search technique, the Modified Genetic Algorithm, is presented and proved to converge to the minimum of a cost function. Finally, simulations will show the effectiveness of a variety of search techniques for the intelligent machine.

Moed, Michael C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Optimal dynamic remapping of data parallel computations

A large class of data parallel computations is characterized by a sequence of phases, with phase changes occurring unpredictably. Dynamic remapping of the workload to processors may be required to maintain good performance. The problem considered, for which the utility of remapping and the future behavior of the workload are uncertain, arises when phases exhibit stable execution requirements during a given phase, but requirements change radically between phases. For these situations, a workload assignment generated for one phase may hinder performance during the next phase. This problem is treated formally for a probabilistic model of computation with at most two phases. The authors address the fundamental problem of balancing the expected remapping performance gain against the delay cost, and they derive the optimal remapping decision policy. The promise of the approach is shown by application to multiprocessor implementations of an adaptive gridding fluid dynamics program and to a battlefield simulation program.

Nicol, David M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A probabilistic approach to crack instability

A probabilistic model of brittle fracture is examined with reference to two-dimensional problems. The model is illustrated by using experimental data obtained for 25 macroscopically identical specimens made of short-fiber-reinforced composites. It is shown that the model proposed here provides a predictive formalism for the probability distributions of critical crack depth, critical loads, and crack arrest depths. It also provides similarity criteria for small-scale testing.

Chudnovsky, A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A methodology for evaluating the reliability and risk of structures under complex service environments

The theoretical basis and numerical implementation of NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress), a computer code for probabilistic structural analysis of aerospace components, are described, with an emphasis on the use of NESSUS for reliability and risk assessment. Topics addressed include the structure of probabilistic models of fatigue-crack initiation, risk/cost evaluation, fatigue-fracture analysis, and fatigue-crack initiation. Numerical results from typical applications are presented in graphs and briefly characterized. The usefulness of NESSUS predictions for establishing inspection and retirement schedules and for component certification is indicated.

Shiao, Michael C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A Boltzmann machine for the organization of intelligent machines

A three-tier structure consisting of organization, coordination, and execution levels forms the architecture of an intelligent machine using the principle of increasing precision with decreasing intelligence from a hierarchically intelligent control. This system has been formulated as a probabilistic model, where uncertainty and imprecision can be expressed in terms of entropies. The optimal strategy for decision planning and task execution can be found by minimizing the total entropy in the system. The focus is on the design of the organization level as a Boltzmann machine. Since this level is responsible for planning the actions of the machine, the Boltzmann machine is reformulated to use entropy as the cost function to be minimized. Simulated annealing, expanding subinterval random search, and the genetic algorithm are presented as search techniques to efficiently find the desired action sequence and illustrated with numerical examples.

Moed, Michael C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Computational technology for flight vehicles; Proceedings of the Symposium on Computational Technology on Flight Vehicles, Washington, DC, Nov. 5-7, 1990

The present conference on computational methods for aeronautics applications discusses topics in the fields of parallel computing, multidisciplinary computational methods, grid generation, visualization methods for CFD, probabilistic modeling, numerical simulations and methodologies for different flow regimes, computational strategies and adaptive methods in CFD, and computational strategies and dynamics and control. Attention is given to the MACH system-software kernel, a multidisciplinary approach to aeroelastic analysis, interactive grid generation with control points, interactive flow visualization using stream surfaces, numerical simulations of dynamic/aerodynamic interactions, implicit mathods for the Navier-Stokes equations, and the automatic phase-space analysis of dynamical systems.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗
NASA NTRS1992

NSTS Orbiter auxiliary power unit turbine wheel cracking risk assessment

The present investigation of turbine-wheel cracking problems in the hydrazine-fueled APU turbine wheel of the Space Shuttle Orbiter's Main Engines has indicated the efficacy of systematic probabilistic risk assessment in flight certification and safety resolution. Nevertheless, real crack-initiation and propagation problems do not lend themselves to purely analytical studies. The high-cycle fatigue problem is noted to generally be unsuited to probabilistic modeling, due to its extremely high degree of intrinsic scatter. In the case treated, the cracks appear to trend toward crack arrest in a low cycle fatigue mode, due to a detuning of the resonance model.

Cruse, T. A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Reliability evaluation methodology for NASA applications

Liquid rocket engine technology has been characterized by the development of complex systems containing large number of subsystems, components, and parts. The trend to even larger and more complex system is continuing. The liquid rocket engineers have been focusing mainly on performance driven designs to increase payload delivery of a launch vehicle for a given mission. In otherwords, although the failure of a single inexpensive part or component may cause the failure of the system, reliability in general has not been considered as one of the system parameters like cost or performance. Up till now, quantification of reliability has not been a consideration during system design and development in the liquid rocket industry. Engineers and managers have long been aware of the fact that the reliability of the system increases during development, but no serious attempts have been made to quantify reliability. As a result, a method to quantify reliability during design and development is needed. This includes application of probabilistic models which utilize both engineering analysis and test data. Classical methods require the use of operating data for reliability demonstration. In contrast, the method described in this paper is based on similarity, analysis, and testing combined with Bayesian statistical analysis.

Taneja, Vidya S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Stochastic damage evolution in textile laminates

A probabilistic model utilizing random material characteristics to predict damage evolution in textile laminates is presented. Model is based on a division of each ply into two sublaminas consisting of cells. The probability of cell failure is calculated using stochastic function theory and maximal strain failure criterion. Three modes of failure, i.e. fiber breakage, matrix failure in transverse direction, as well as matrix or interface shear cracking, are taken into account. Computed failure probabilities are utilized in reducing cell stiffness based on the mesovolume concept. A numerical algorithm is developed predicting the damage evolution and deformation history of textile laminates. Effect of scatter of fiber orientation on cell properties is discussed. Weave influence on damage accumulation is illustrated with the help of an example of a Kevlar/epoxy laminate.

Dzenis, Yuris A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Experimental evaluation of the certification-trail method

Certification trails are a recently introduced and promising approach to fault-detection and fault-tolerance. A comprehensive attempt to assess experimentally the performance and overall value of the method is reported. The method is applied to algorithms for the following problems: huffman tree, shortest path, minimum spanning tree, sorting, and convex hull. Our results reveal many cases in which an approach using certification-trails allows for significantly faster overall program execution time than a basic time redundancy-approach. Algorithms for the answer-validation problem for abstract data types were also examined. This kind of problem provides a basis for applying the certification-trail method to wide classes of algorithms. Answer-validation solutions for two types of priority queues were implemented and analyzed. In both cases, the algorithm which performs answer-validation is substantially faster than the original algorithm for computing the answer. Next, a probabilistic model and analysis which enables comparison between the certification-trail method and the time-redundancy approach were presented. The analysis reveals some substantial and sometimes surprising advantages for ther certification-trail method. Finally, the work our group performed on the design and implementation of fault injection testbeds for experimental analysis of the certification trail technique is discussed. This work employs two distinct methodologies, software fault injection (modification of instruction, data, and stack segments of programs on a Sun Sparcstation ELC and on an IBM 386 PC) and hardware fault injection (control, address, and data lines of a Motorola MC68000-based target system pulsed at logical zero/one values). Our results indicate the viability of the certification trail technique. It is also believed that the tools developed provide a solid base for additional exploration.

Sullivan, Gregory F.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Use of common time base for checkpointing and rollback recovery in a distributed system

An approach to checkpointing and rollback recovery in a distributed computing system using a common time base is proposed. A common time base is established in the system using a hardware clock synchronization algorithm. This common time base is coupled with the idea of pseudo-recovery points to develop a checkpointing algorithm that has the following advantages: reduced wait for commitment for establishing recovery lines, fewer messages to be exchanged, and less memory requirement. These advantages are assessed quantitatively by developing a probabilistic model.

Ramanathan, Parameswaran↗
NASA NTRS1995

A Probabilistic Tool that Aids Logistics Engineers in the Establishment of High Confidence Repair Need-Dates at the NASA Shuttle Logistics Depot

The NASA Shuttle Logistics Depot (NSLD) is tasked with the responsibility for repair and manufacture of Line Replaceable Unit (LRU) hardware and components to support the Space Shuttle Orbiter. Due to shrinking budgets, cost effective repair of LRU's becomes a primary objective. To achieve this objective, is imperative that resources be assigned to those LRU's which have the greatest expectation of being needed as a spare. Forecasting the times at which spares are needed requires consideration of many significant factors including: failure rate, flight rate, spares availability, and desired level of support, among others. This paper summarizes the results of the research and development work that has been accomplished in producing an automated tool that assists in the assignment of effective repair start-times for LRU's at the NSLD. This system, called the Repair Start-time Assessment System (RSAS), uses probabilistic modeling technology to calculate a need date for a repair that considers the current repair pipeline status, as well as, serviceable spares and projections of future demands. The output from the system is a date for beginning the repair that has significantly greater confidence (in the sense that a desired probability of support is ensured) than times produced using other techniques. Since an important output of RSAS is the longest repair turn-around time that will ensure a desired probability of support, RSAS has the potential for being applied to operations at any repair depot where spares are on-hand and repair start-times are of interest. In addition, RSAS incorporates tenants of Just-in-Time (JIT) techniques in that the latest repair start-time (i.e., the latest time at which repair resources must be committed) may be calculated for every failed unit This could reduce the spares inventory for certain items, without significantly increasing the risk of unsatisfied demand.

Bullington, J. V.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Self-Directed Cooperative Planetary Rovers

The project is concerned with the development of decision-theoretic techniques to optimize the scientific return of planetary rovers. Planetary rovers are small unmanned vehicles equipped with cameras and a variety of sensors used for scientific experiments. They must operate under tight constraints over such resources as operation time, power, storage capacity, and communication bandwidth. Moreover, the limited computational resources of the rover limit the complexity of on-line planning and scheduling. We have developed a comprehensive solution to this problem that involves high-level tools to describe a mission; a compiler that maps a mission description and additional probabilistic models of the components of the rover into a Markov decision problem; and algorithms for solving the rover control problem that are sensitive to the limited computational resources and high-level of uncertainty in this domain.

Zilberstein, Shlomo↗
NASA NTRS2003

Fundamental space radiobiology

The unique feature of the space radiation environment is the dominance of high-energy charged particles (HZE or high LET radiation) emitted by the Sun and galactic sources, or trapped in the Van Allen radiation belts. These charged particles present a significant hazard to space flight crews, and accelerator-based experiments are underway to quantify the health risks due to unavoidable radiation exposure. There are three principal properties of charged particles that distinguish them from conventional radiation, i.e. gamma rays and x-rays. First, they have a defined range in matter rather than an exponential absorption profile. Second, they undergo nuclear reactions to produce secondary particles. Third, and most important, they deposit their energy along well-defined linear paths or tracks rather than diffuse fields. The structured energy deposition pattern interacts on multiple scales with the biological structures of DNA, cells and tissues to produce correlated patterns of damage that evade repair systems. Traditional concepts of dose and its associated normalization parameter, RBE (relative biological effectiveness), break down under experimental scrutiny, and probabilistic models of risk based on the number of particle traversals per cell may be more appropriate. Unique patterns of DNA damage, gene expression, mobilization of repair proteins, activation of cytokines and remodeling of cellular microenvironment are observed following exposure to high LET radiation. At low levels of exposure the communication of bioactive substances from irradiated to unirradiated "bystander" cells can amplify the damage and cause a significant deviation from linearity in dose vs. response relations. Under some circumstances, there is even a multigenerational delay in the expression of radiation-induced genetic damage (genomic instability) which is not strictly dose dependent. These issues and the experimental evidence derived from ground based experiments at particle accelerators are presented along with speculation about how modified inertial conditions might perturb homeostatic responses to radiation to further complicate risk assessment for space flight.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗
NASA NTRS2002

Classification image analysis: estimation and statistical inference for two-alternative forced-choice experiments

We consider estimation and statistical hypothesis testing on classification images obtained from the two-alternative forced-choice experimental paradigm. We begin with a probabilistic model of task performance for simple forced-choice detection and discrimination tasks. Particular attention is paid to general linear filter models because these models lead to a direct interpretation of the classification image as an estimate of the filter weights. We then describe an estimation procedure for obtaining classification images from observer data. A number of statistical tests are presented for testing various hypotheses from classification images based on some more compact set of features derived from them. As an example of how the methods we describe can be used, we present a case study investigating detection of a Gaussian bump profile.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2005

Using information Theory in Optimal Test Point Selection for Health Management in NASA's Exploration Vehicles

In this paper, we will present a new methodology that measures the "worth" of deploying an additional testing instrument (sensor) in terms of the amount of information that can be retrieved from such measurement. This quantity is obtained using a probabilistic model of RLV's that has been partially developed in the NASA Ames Research Center. A number of correlated attributes are identified and used to obtain the worth of deploying a sensor in a given test point from an information-theoretic viewpoint. Once the information-theoretic worth of sensors is formulated and incorporated into our general model for IHM performance, the problem can be formulated as a constrained optimization problem where reliability and operational safety of the system as a whole is considered. Although this research is conducted specifically for RLV's, the proposed methodology in its generic form can be easily extended to other domains of systems health monitoring.

Mehr, Ali Farhang↗
NASA NTRS2003

Obstacle detection in foliage with ladar and radar

Autonomous off-road navigation is central to several important applications of unmanned ground vehicles. This requires the ability to detect obstacles in vegetation. We examine the prospects for doing so with scanning ladar and with a linear array of 2.2 GHz micro-impulse radar transceivers. For ladar, we summarize our work to date on algorithms for detecting obstacles in tall grass with single-axis ladar, then present a simple probabilistic model of the distance into tall grass that ladar-based obstacle detection is possible.

ladar↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Bayesian Framework for Landing Site Selection During Autonomous Spacecraft Descent

The success of a landed space exploration mission depends largely on the final landing site. Factors influencing site selection include safety, fuel-consumption, and scientific return. This paper addresses the problem of selecting the best available landing site based on these factors in real-time during autonomous spacecraft descent onto a planetary surface. The problem is modeled probabilistically using Bayesian Networks (BNs). BNs provide a means of representing the causal relationships between variables that impact the quality of a landing site. The final landing site is determined via probabilistic reasoning based on terrain safety derived from on-board sensors, available fuel based on spacecraft descent dynamics, and regions of interest defined by mission scientists.

entry, descent, landing (EDL)↗