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At least 307 records · Page 17

Tuning Neural Network Models for Improved Prediction of Boundary Layer Transition

Boundary layer transition can strongly impact flight vehicle performance as it influences surface skin friction and aerodynamic heating, making accurate transition prediction a key to designing next generation aircraft. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have shown promise toward predicting laminar-turbulent transition based on linear stability correlations. The computational efficiency of ANNs and the substantially reduced user involvement in relation to direct computations based on the linear stability theory (LST) makes them an attractive methodology for integrating the LST based correlations in computational fluid dynamics codes. Tollmien-Schlichting (TS) waves correspond to the dominant transition mechanism in 2D or weakly 3D subsonic boundary layers, such as those encountered in general aviation applications. Improvements to neural network model accuracy in predicting the amplification rates of TS instability waves have been investigated by leveraging recent machine learning developments in conjunction with surrogate optimization techniques and via suitable augmentation of the data used to train the networks. The optimized models trained on the modified dataset reduced the average transition location errors on different airfoils at several flow conditions by 51% of the original manually-tuned network’s errors on the same flow cases. The actual transition locations were derived from the Langley Stability and Transition Analysis Code (LASTRAC).

Machine Learning↗

Assessment of an Unstructured-Grid Method for Predicting 3-D Turbulent Viscous Flows

A method is presented for solving turbulent flow problems on three-dimensional unstructured grids. Spatial discretization is accomplished by a cell-centered finite-volume formulation using an accurate linear reconstruction scheme and upwind flux differencing. Time is advanced by an implicit backward-Euler time-stepping scheme. Flow turbulence effects are modeled by the Spalart-Allmaras one-equation model, which is coupled with a wall function to reduce the number of cells in the sublayer region of the boundary layer. A systematic assessment of the method is presented to devise guidelines for more strategic application of the technology to complex problems. The assessment includes the accuracy in predictions of skin-friction coefficient, law-of-the-wall behavior, and surface pressure for a flat-plate turbulent boundary layer, and for the ONERA M6 wing under a high Reynolds number, transonic, separated flow condition.

Frink, Neal T.↗

Assessment of an Unstructured-Grid Method for Predicting 3-D Turbulent Viscous Flows

A method Is presented for solving turbulent flow problems on three-dimensional unstructured grids. Spatial discretization Is accomplished by a cell-centered finite-volume formulation using an accurate lin- ear reconstruction scheme and upwind flux differencing. Time is advanced by an implicit backward- Euler time-stepping scheme. Flow turbulence effects are modeled by the Spalart-Allmaras one-equation model, which is coupled with a wall function to reduce the number of cells in the sublayer region of the boundary layer. A systematic assessment of the method is presented to devise guidelines for more strategic application of the technology to complex problems. The assessment includes the accuracy In predictions of skin-friction coefficient, law-of-the-wall behavior, and surface pressure for a flat-plate turbulent boundary layer, and for the ONERA M6 wing under a high Reynolds number, transonic, separated flow condition.

Frink, Neal T.↗

Heat transfer on accreting ice surfaces

Based on previous observations of glaze ice accretion on aircraft surfaces, a multizone model with distinct zones of different surface roughness is demonstrated. The use of surface roughness in the LEWICE ice accretion prediction code is examined. It was found that roughness is used in two ways: (1) to determine the laminar to turbulent boundary-layer transition location; and (2) to calculate the convective turbulent heat-transfer coefficient. A two-zone version of the multizone model is implemented in the LEWICE code, and compared with experimental convective heat-transfer coefficient and ice accretion results. The analysis of the boundary-layer transition, surface roughness, and viscous flowfield effects significantly increased the accuracy in predicting heat-transfer coefficients. The multizone model was found to significantly improve the ice accretion prediction for the cases compared.

Yamaguchi, Keiko↗

Accuracy study of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) definitive attitude determination

The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) has two definitive attitude determination requirements: the definitive attitude of the Modular Attitude Control Subsystem (MACS) and the definitive attitude of the gimbaled Solar-Stellar Pointing Platform (SSPP). The onboard computer (OBC) will compute the MACS attitude using a Kalman filter and will transform this attitude solution through the SSPP gimbals to calculate the SSPP attitude. The attitude ground support system (AGSS) will compute the MACS attitude using a batch least-squares differential corrector algorithm and will also transform this solution through the gimbals to obtain the SSPP attitude. This paper reports the results of a prelaunch study to predict the accuracy of the OBC attitude solutions and the accuracy of the AGSS attitude solutions. The OBC and AGSS solution accuracies are then compared to establish the relative quality. The effects of star observability, sensor noise, and sensor misalignment uncertainties on attitude determination accuracy are analyzed for each case.

Snow, Frank↗

Solar activity prediction

A statistical study of formulas for predicting the sunspot number several years in advance is reported. By using a data lineup with cycle maxima coinciding, and by using multiple and nonlinear predictors, a new formula which gives better error estimates than former formulas derived from the work of McNish and Lincoln is obtained. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine which of several mathematical expressions best describes the relationship between 10.7 cm solar flux and Zurich sunspot numbers. Attention is given to the autocorrelation of the observations, and confidence intervals for the derived relationships are presented. The accuracy of predicting a value of 10.7 cm solar flux from a predicted sunspot number is dicussed.

Slutz, R. J.↗

Spacecraft-spacecraft very long baseline interferometry. Part 1: Error modeling and observable accuracy

In Part 1 of this two-part article, an error budget is presented for Earth-based delta differential one-way range (delta DOR) measurements between two spacecraft. Such observations, made between a planetary orbiter (or lander) and another spacecraft approaching that planet, would provide a powerful target-relative angular tracking data type for approach navigation. Accuracies of better than 5 nrad should be possible for a pair of spacecraft with 8.4-GHz downlinks, incorporating 40-MHz DOR tone spacings, while accuracies approaching 1 nrad will be possible if the spacecraft incorporate 32-GHz downlinks with DOR tone spacing on the order of 250 MHz; these accuracies will be available for the last few weeks or months of planetary approach for typical Earth-Mars trajectories. Operational advantages of this data type are discussed, and ground system requirements needed to enable spacecraft-spacecraft delta DOR observations are outlined. This tracking technique could be demonstrated during the final approach phase of the Mars '94 mission, using Mars Observer as the in-orbit reference spacecraft, if the Russian spacecraft includes an 8.4-GHz downlink incorporating DOR tones. Part 2 of this article will present an analysis of predicted targeting accuracy for this scenario.

Edwards, C. D., Jr.↗

Parameter Uncertainty for Aircraft Aerodynamic Modeling using Recursive Least Squares

A real-time method was demonstrated for determining accurate uncertainty levels of stability and control derivatives estimated using recursive least squares and time-domain data. The method uses a recursive formulation of the residual autocorrelation to account for colored residuals, which are routinely encountered in aircraft parameter estimation and change the predicted uncertainties. Simulation data and flight test data for a subscale jet transport aircraft were used to demonstrate the approach. Results showed that the corrected uncertainties matched the observed scatter in the parameter estimates, and did so more accurately than conventional uncertainty estimates that assume white residuals. Only small differences were observed between batch estimates and recursive estimates at the end of the maneuver. It was also demonstrated that the autocorrelation could be reduced to a small number of lags to minimize computation and memory storage requirements without significantly degrading the accuracy of predicted uncertainty levels.

Grauer, Jared A.↗

Mass Inferencing Model Creation and Deployment to the RASSOR Lunar Excavation Robot

The Regolith Advanced Surface Systems Operations Robot (RASSOR) Excavator is a teleoperated mobile robotic platform with a unique space regolith excavation capability. The Intelligent Capabilities Enhanced RASSOR research project developed functionality for inferencing regolith mass ingested during RASSOR operation, enhancing RASSOR’s ability to successfully complete ISRU missions. To teleoperate or run autonomously, it is crucial for the quantity of regolith mass ingested by RASSOR to be available as a system state for efficient operation. For example, during autonomous operation, RASSOR should navigate and move to a processing plant to offload the collected regolith when the drums are full; without knowledge of how much mass is in the drums, this type of high-level planning is not possible. Four distinct modeling approaches were employed in developing a mass inferencing approach that could work on RASSOR. All take in system states, such as arm/drum positions, velocities, currents, voltages, and robot pose, and output a mass prediction for each set of the robot’s bucket drums.1) A neural network model that takes a vector of normalized system states; 2) A model that uses the integrated power consumption of an arm-raise (normalized by velocity); 3) A model that uses average drum current over a variable length interval of the drum disengaged from the surface; and 4) A real-time estimation model that aggregates excavation drum current. The developed models run in real time, outputting predictions for the front and rear drums, timestamp of the last prediction, and total mass in RASSOR’s drums. Further testing is required to validate the arm-raise model (2), though initial tests indicate reasonable performance (<10% mean error) on the hardware. The linear fit of average drum-current model (3) had a front value of r^2=0.99 and a rear value of r^2=0.98 on the validation dataset. This model currently has the best performance on unseen data. The real time model (4) is still in development, though initial results on a small subset of the training data show that it has high accuracy in predicting the increase in mass during excavation. Though work remains to be done with deploying a high-fidelity model to the physical system that makes predictions with error below the desired threshold, the modular architecture for model development allows quick adjustment of parameters to increase model fidelity. This architecture can also be adapted to use lunar excavation data to create models that are reflective of RASSOR’s dynamics when operating on the lunar surface. The results are promising as it has been shown that models can be developed that accurately estimate excavated regolith mass.

rassor↗

Aeroheating Predictions for a Hypersonic, Turbulent Near-Wake

The accuracy of heating predictions using various turbulence models is examined for an axisymmetric near-wake at Mach 6. The CFD predictions are compared with experimental data collected under AGARD Working Group 18 on the wake of a 70-degree sphere-cone. The impact of grid resolution and discretization error is estimated, which allows a comparison of stacked-block and conventional structured meshes. The accuracy of steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models is contrasted with that of a hybrid RANS/Large-Eddy Simulation model. The predictions are made with three different CFD codes (LAURA, FUN3D, and HyperSolve), to demonstrate the code-to-code variation in the results. Steady SST models capture the qualitative nature of the heating in the wake, including the increasing peak heating with increasing Reynolds number. Spalart-Allmaras models, including SA-Catris, under-predicted the peak heating in the wake. Hybrid RANS/LES models improve upon the SA results but have their own modeling difficulties near the shear layer impingement. These results are generally consistent across solvers and grid topologies.

RANS↗

Aeroheating Predictions for a Hypersonic, Turbulent Near-Wake

The accuracy of heating predictions using various turbulence models is examined for an axisymmetric near-wake at Mach 6. The CFD predictions are compared with experimental data collected under AGARD Working Group 18 on the wake of a 70-degree sphere-cone. The impact of grid resolution and discretization error is estimated, which allows a comparison of stacked-block and conventional structured meshes. The accuracy of steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models is contrasted with that of a hybrid RANS/Large-Eddy Simulation model. The predictions are made with three different CFD codes (LAURA, FUN3D, and HyperSolve), to demonstrate the code-to-code variation in the results. Steady SST models capture the qualitative nature of the heating in the wake, including the increasing peak heating with increasing Reynolds number. Spalart-Allmaras models, including SA-Catris, under-predicted the peak heating in the wake. Hybrid RANS/LES models improve upon the SA results but have their own modeling difficulties near the shear layer impingement. These results are generally consistent across solvers and grid topologies.

RANS↗

The Need for Technology Maturity of Any Advanced Capability to Achieve Better Life Cycle Cost (LCC)

Programs such as space transportation systems are developed and deployed only rarely, and they have long development schedules and large development and life cycle costs (LCC). They have not historically had their LCC predicted well and have only had an effort to control the DDT&E phase of the programs. One of the factors driving the predictability, and thus control, of the LCC of a program is the maturity of the technologies incorporated in the program. If the technologies incorporated are less mature (as measured by their Technology Readiness Level - TRL), then the LCC not only increases but the degree of increase is difficult to predict. Consequently, new programs avoid incorporating technologies unless they are quite mature, generally TRL greater than or equal to 7 (system prototype demonstrated in a space environment) to allow better predictability of the DDT&E phase costs unless there is no alternative. On the other hand, technology development programs rarely develop technologies beyond TRL 6 (system/subsystem model or prototype demonstrated in a relevant environment). Currently the lack of development funds beyond TRL 6 and the major funding required for full scale development leave little or no funding available to prototype TRL 6 concepts so that hardware would be in the ready mode for safe, reliable and cost effective incorporation. The net effect is that each new program either incorporates little new technology or has longer development schedules and costs, and higher LCC, than planned. This paper presents methods to ensure that advanced technologies are incorporated into future programs while providing a greater accuracy of predicting their LCC. One method is having a dedicated organization to develop X-series vehicles or separate prototypes carried on other vehicles. The question of whether such an organization should be independent of NASA and/or have an independent funding source is discussed. Other methods are also discussed. How to make the choice of which technologies to pursue to the prototype level is also discussed since, to achieve better LCC, first the selection of the appropriate technologies.

Robinson, John W.↗

Influence of Computational Drop Representation in LES of a Droplet-Laden Mixing Layer

Multiphase turbulent flows are encountered in many practical applications including turbine engines or natural phenomena involving particle dispersion. Numerical computations of multiphase turbulent flows are important because they provide a cheaper alternative to performing experiments during an engine design process or because they can provide predictions of pollutant dispersion, etc. Two-phase flows contain millions and sometimes billions of particles. For flows with volumetrically dilute particle loading, the most accurate method of numerically simulating the flow is based on direct numerical simulation (DNS) of the governing equations in which all scales of the flow including the small scales that are responsible for the overwhelming amount of dissipation are resolved. DNS, however, requires high computational cost and cannot be used in engineering design applications where iterations among several design conditions are necessary. Because of high computational cost, numerical simulations of such flows cannot track all these drops. The objective of this work is to quantify the influence of the number of computational drops and grid spacing on the accuracy of predicted flow statistics, and to possibly identify the minimum number, or, if not possible, the optimal number of computational drops that provide minimal error in flow prediction. For this purpose, several Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of a mixing layer with evaporating drops have been performed by using coarse, medium, and fine grid spacings and computational drops, rather than physical drops. To define computational drops, an integer NR is introduced that represents the ratio of the number of existing physical drops to the desired number of computational drops; for example, if NR=8, this means that a computational drop represents 8 physical drops in the flow field. The desired number of computational drops is determined by the available computational resources; the larger NR is, the less computationally intensive is the simulation. A set of first order and second order flow statistics, and of drop statistics are extracted from LES predictions and are compared to results obtained by filtering a DNS database. First order statistics such as Favre averaged stream-wise velocity, Favre averaged vapor mass fraction, and the drop stream-wise velocity, are predicted accurately independent of the number of computational drops and grid spacing. Second order flow statistics depend both on the number of computational drops and on grid spacing. The scalar variance and turbulent vapor flux are predicted accurately by the fine mesh LES only when NR is less than 32, and by the coarse mesh LES reasonably accurately for all NR values. This is attributed to the fact that when the grid spacing is coarsened, the number of drops in a computational cell must not be significantly lower than that in the DNS.

Bellan, Josette↗

Fluidized bed combustor modeling

A general mathematical model for the prediction of performance of a fluidized bed coal combustor (FBC) is developed. The basic elements of the model consist of: (1) hydrodynamics of gas and solids in the combustor; (2) description of gas and solids contacting pattern; (3) kinetics of combustion; and (4) absorption of SO2 by limestone in the bed. The model is capable of calculating the combustion efficiency, axial bed temperature profile, carbon hold-up in the bed, oxygen and SO2 concentrations in the bubble and emulsion phases, sulfur retention efficiency and particulate carry over by elutriation. The effects of bed geometry, excess air, location of heat transfer coils in the bed, calcium to sulfur ratio in the feeds, etc. are examined. The calculated results are compared with experimental data. Agreement between the calculated results and the observed data are satisfactory in most cases. Recommendations to enhance the accuracy of prediction of the model are suggested.

Horio, M.↗

Relation between West Coastal rainfall and Nimbus 6 SCAMS liquid water data over the northeastern Pacific Ocean

A research study is described in which the application to rainfall prediction of cloud liquid water data obtained from the SCAMS experiment of Nimbus 6 is explored. The study area is the Pacific Northwest coast of the United States, where rainfall is produced by extratropical storms that approach from across the Pacific Ocean. SCAMS data related to cloud liquid water over the ocean, and coastal rainfall data, are analyzed for 20 different storm systems in the northeastern Pacific Ocean; these produced significant rainfall from Washington to central California during the period October 1975-March 1976. Results show that the distribution of storm-cloud water analyzed from the SCAMS data over the ocean foreshadows the distribution of coastal rainfall accumulated from the storm at a later time. It is concluded that passive microwave sensor measurements of cloud water over the ocean, when used in conjunction with numerical and other objective guidance, can be used to enhance the accuracy of predictions of coastal rainfall distribution. Limitations in the SCAMS measurements and in the data analysis and interpretation are noted.

Viezee, W.↗

Relation between west coastal rainfall and Nimbus-6 SCAMS liquid water data over the northeastern Pacific Ocean

The application to rainfall prediction of cloud liquid water data obtained from the SCAMS experiment of Nimbus-6 is explored. The study area is the Pacific Northwest coast of the United States, where rainfall is produced by extratropical storms that approach from across the Pacific Ocean. The SCAMS data related to cloud liquid water over the ocean, and coastal rainfall data, are analyzed for 20 different storm systems in the northeastern Pacific Ocean; these produced significant rainfall from Washington to central California during the period October 1975 through March 1976. Results show that the distribution of storm cloud water analyzed from the SCAMS data over the ocean foreshadows the distribution of coastal rainfall accumulated from the storm at a later time. It is concluded that passive microwave sensor measurements of cloud water over the ocean, when used in conjunction with numerical and other objective guidance, can be used to enhance the accuracy of predictions of coastal rainfall distribution. Limitations in the SCAMS measurements and in the data analysis and interpretation are noted.

Viezee, W.↗

The geopotential at synchronous-orbit altitudes

The earth's gravity potential at synchronous orbit satellite altitudes is studied by analyzing the small effects of the resonant harmonic of gravity in tracking data from eight satellites during 21 distinct drift-free arcs. Results show: (1) absolute accuracy of second degree resonant geopotential coefficients better than three percent and coefficients through fourth degree better than 15 percent; (2) positions of equilibrium points for geostationary satellites better than 1/2 degree; and (3) accuracy in predicting orbits for 24-hour satellites better than 1 degree for periods greater than 2 years.

Wagner, C. A.↗

Relative motion of orbiting satellites

The relative motion problem is analyzed, as a linearized case, and as a numerically determined solution to provide a time history of the geometries representing the motion state. The displacement history and the hodographs for families of solutions are provided, analytically and graphically, to serve as an aid to understanding this problem area. Linearized solutions to relative motion problems of orbiting particles are presented for the impulsive and fixed thrust cases. Second order solutions are described to enhance the accuracy of prediction. A method was developed to obtain accurate, numerical solutions to the intercept and rendezvous problem; and, special situations are examined. A particular problem related to relative motions, where the motion traces develop a cusp, is examined in detail. This phenomenon is found to be dependent on a particular relationship between orbital eccentricity and the inclination between orbital planes. These conditions are determined, and, example situations are presented and discussed.

Eades, J. B., Jr.↗