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At least 307 records · Page 17

2025 Geothermal Drilling Cost Curves Update: Preprint

Drilling activities account for 30% to 57% of the cost to develop and install a geothermal plant. Therefore, an accurate representation of the cost to drill a well is paramount in techno-economic analysis to determine the feasibility of a geothermal power project. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) endeavored to revise the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) GeoVision baseline drilling cost curves due to extensive improvement in drilling rates at the Utah Frontier Observatory Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) demonstration site. That effort did not culminate in the recommendation of new curves because the actual project costs did not match the reported performance improvements and were at or above the GeoVision baseline. The need for another iteration of this analysis has arisen from industry record drilling performance reported by recent commercial field-scale and demonstration projects, including Fervo Energy’s Cape Station, the Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32 demonstration and the Geysers Power Company’s GDC-36 demonstration. Therefore, in this work, we have estimated the resulting industry average rate of penetration (ROP) and bit life and applied these parameters as inputs to the Well Cost Simplified model used in the GeoVision analysis. The resulting revised cost curves show a significant decline from the GeoVision baseline. For vertical wells, the magnitude of cost decline ranges between 12% and 24% while for deviated wells, cost reductions between 18% and 26% are estimated. The revised cost curves are in good agreement with actual cost data and therefore, quantify the economic impact of the utilization of (and advances in) polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bit technology and the application of physics-based methodologies that optimize mechanical specific energy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Neural network acceleration of large-scale structure theory calculations

Here, we make use of neural networks to accelerate the calculation of power spectra required for the analysis of galaxy clustering and weak gravitational lensing data. For modern perturbation theory codes, evaluation time for a single cosmology and redshift can take on the order of two seconds. In combination with the comparable time required to compute linear predictions using a Boltzmann solver, these calculations are the bottleneck for many contemporary large-scale structure analyses. Here, we construct neural network-based surrogate models for Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT) predictions of matter power spectra, real and redshift space galaxy power spectra, and galaxy-matter cross power spectra that attain ~ 0.1% (at one sigma) accuracy over a broad range of scales in a ωCDM parameter space. The neural network surrogates can be evaluated in approximately one millisecond, a factor of 1000 times faster than the full Boltzmann code and LPT computations. In a simulated full-shape redshift space galaxy power spectrum analysis, we demonstrate that the posteriors obtained using our surrogates are accurate compared to those obtained using the full LPT model. We make our surrogate models public at https://github.com/sfschen/EmulateLSS, so that others may take advantage of the speed gains they provide to enable rapid iteration on analysis settings, something that is essential in complex contemporary large-scale structure analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

HyKKT: a hybrid direct-iterative method for solving KKT linear systems

Here, we propose a solution strategy for the large indefinite linear systems arising in interior methods for nonlinear optimization. The method is suitable for implementation on hardware accelerators such as graphical processing units (GPUs). The current gold standard for sparse indefinite systems is the LBLT factorization where L is a lower triangular matrix and B is 1×1 or 2×2 block diagonal. However, this requires pivoting, which substantially increases communication cost and degrades performance on GPUs. Our approach solves a large indefinite system by solving multiple smaller positive definite systems, using an iterative solver on the Schur complement and an inner direct solve (via Cholesky factorization) within each iteration. Cholesky is stable without pivoting, thereby reducing communication and allowing reuse of the symbolic factorization. We demonstrate the practicality of our approach on large optimal power flow problems and show that it can efficiently utilize GPUs and outperform LBL T factorization of the full system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impact of shape on pedestal characteristics in the wide pedestal quiescent H-mode in the DIII-D tokamak

Experiments on the DIII-D tokamak have advanced the operational limits of wide pedestal quiescent H-mode (WPQH) plasmas towards increased ITER relevance by simultaneously demonstrating well-matched plasma shape and net zero injected torque. Wide pedestal QHmodes are a compelling candidate regime for a future power producing device because they maintain a stationary pedestal without ELMs via additional edge transport. The pedestal is wider than what would be predicted from kinetic ballooning mode physics due to enhanced edge transport generated by broadband turbulence, a limit cycle oscillation, or some combination thereof. Here, compared to the double null shape, the lower single null shape is observed to have a lower density, narrower pedestal width, larger density fluctuations over a broad range of wavenumber, and operates closer to the peeling-ballooning instability boundary calculated from the simple pedestal scaling, Δ ψΝ , which is still observed to be wider than the EPED prediction.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Framework for Error-Bounded Approximate Computing, with an Application to Dot Products

Approximate computing techniques, which trade off the computation accuracy of an algorithm for better performance and energy efficiency, have been successful in reducing computation and power costs in several domains. However, error sensitive applications in high-performance computing are unable to benefit from existing approximate computing strategies that are not developed with guaranteed error bounds. While approximate computing techniques can be developed for individual high-performance computing applications by domain specialists, this often requires additional theoretical analysis and potentially extensive software modification. Hence, the development of low-level error-bounded approximate computing strategies that can be introduced into any high-performance computing application without requiring additional analysis or significant software alterations is desirable. In this paper, we provide a contribution in this direction by proposing a general framework for designing error-bounded approximate computing strategies and apply it to the dot product kernel to develop \bf qdot---an error-bounded approximate dot product kernel. Following the introduction of qdot, here we perform a theoretical analysis that yields a deterministic bound on the relative approximation error introduced by qdot. Empirical tests are performed to illustrate the tightness of the derived error bound and to demonstrate the effectiveness of qdot on a synthetic dataset, as well as two scientific benchmarks---the conjugate gradient (CG) and power methods. In some instances, using qdot for the dot products in CG can result in many components being quantized to half precision without increasing the iteration count required for convergence to the same solution as CG using a double precision dot product.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

High gas throughput SOLPS-ITER simulations extending the ITER database to strong detachment

Abstract SOLPS-ITER simulations performed for Q DT = 10, P SOL = 100 MW burning plasmas on ITER extend the existing database to high values of separatrix averaged neon impurity concentration (⟨ c Ne ⟩ ≈ 6%) and divertor neutral pressure (⟨ p div ⟩ > 25 Pa) in order to determine the heat flux mitigation capability of these scenarios and whether strongly detached states are accessible. In the existing database of ITER simulations, the level of detachment was limited to cases where the integral ion flux to the outer target was greater than 80% of the value at rollover, with the impurity radiation localized near the target. With the possibility of narrow heat flux channels and increased deposited power due to tile shaping, it is important to explore operation at a higher degree of detachment. Two series of simulations were explored to extend the database of SOLPS simulations. By increasing the deuterium and neon puff rates proportionally, the peak divertor energy flux ( q ⊥,max ) is decreased from 5 to 3 MW m −2 while ⟨ p div ⟩ increased from 11 to 27 Pa. By increasing only the neon puff, q ⊥, max can be reduced to <1MW m −2 while ⟨ p div ⟩ is maintained at ∼ 11 Pa. As the neon puff level is increased, the position of the impurity radiation peak is shifted towards the X-point. At the highest neon puff levels with steady-state solutions, the electron temperature is reduced below 1 eV across 50 cm of each divertor target. The new cases extend previously observed tight relationships in power and momentum loss factors to low electron temperature improving their utility for highly detached regimes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The benefits of CMB delensing

The effects of gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) have been measured at high significance with existing data and will be measured even more precisely in future surveys. Reversing the effects of lensing on the observed CMB temperature and polarization maps provides a variety of benefits. Delensed CMB spectra have sharper acoustic peaks and more prominent damping tails, allowing for improved inferences of cosmological parameters that impact those features. Delensing reduces B-mode power, aiding the search for primordial gravitational waves and allowing for lower variance reconstruction of lensing and other sources of secondary CMB anisotropies. Lensing-induced power spectrum covariances are reduced by delensing, simplifying analyses and improving constraints on primordial non-Gaussianities. Biases that result from incorrectly modeling nonlinear and baryonic feedback effects on the lensing power spectrum are mitigated by delensing. All of these benefits are possible without any changes to experimental or survey design. Here, we develop a self-consistent, iterative, all-orders treatment of CMB delensing on the curved sky and demonstrate the impact that delensing will have with future surveys.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Review and Gap Analysis of Heliostat Components and Controls

This investigation provides a comprehensive literature review pertaining to heliostat components and controls as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Heliostat Consortium (Heliocon) program. Here, this work presents a detailed assessment of subcomponents, controls and wireless communications elements that comprise various designs of helisotats within concentrating solar power (CSP) installations. Additionally, this work also provides the results of an industry survey, intended to compliment the literature discussion, to provide a gap analysis of the primary technology and cost areas that need to be addressed to help improved to spur concentrating solar power (CSP) bankability. Although the results of the study determined several key areas for development, three strategic areas identified were: (1) the use of advanced composite materials to replace a need for expensive steel within the structure and mirror substrate, (2) employment of closed-loop controls for automated calibration, reduction of commissioning time and O&M hours, reduction of drive requirements, as well as overall cost reduction, and (3) the need for more Heliostat-centric codes and standards to facilitate engineering confidence in the development of new features, cost reductions, or other design iterations to be seamlessly introduced without optical performance problems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

High fusion performance in Super H-mode experiments on Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D

The ‘Super H-Mode’ regime is predicted to enable pedestal height and fusion performance substantially higher than standard H-Mode operation. This regime exists due to a bifurcation of the pedestal pressure, as a function of density, that is predicted by the EPED model to occur in strongly shaped plasmas above a critical pedestal density. Experiments on Alcator C-Mod and DIII-D have achieved access to the Super H-Mode (and Near Super H) regime, and obtained very high pedestal pressure, including the highest achieved on a tokamak (pped ~ 80 kPa) in C-Mod experiments operating near the ITER magnetic field. DIII-D Super H experiments have demonstrated strong performance, including the highest stored energy in the present configuration of DIII-D (W ~ 2.2–3.2 MJ), while utilizing only about half of the available heating power (Pheat ~ 7–12 MW). These DIII-D experiments have obtained the highest value of peak fusion gain, QDT,equiv ~ 0.5, achieved on a medium scale (R < 2 m) tokamak. Sustained high performance operation (βN ~ 2.9, H98 ~ 1.6) has been achieved utilizing n = 3 magnetic perturbations for density and impurity control. Pedestal and global confinement has been maintained in the presence of deuterium and nitrogen gas puffing, which enables a more radiative divertor condition. A pair of simple performance metrics is developed to assess and compare regimes. Super H-Mode access is predicted for ITER and expected, based on both theoretical prediction and observed normalized performance, to allow ITER to achieve its goals (Q = 10) at Ip < 15 MA, and to potentially enable more compact, cost effective pilot plant and reactor designs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Fast Proton Insertion in Layered H 2 W 2 O 7 via Selective Etching of an Aurivillius Phase

H 2 W 2 O 7 , a metastable material synthesized via selective etching of the Aurivillius-related Bi 2 W 2 O 9 , is shown as an electrode for high power proton-based energy storage. Comprehensive structural characterization is performed to obtain a high-fidelity crystal structure of H 2 W 2 O 7 using an iterative approach that combines X-ray diffraction, neutron pair distribution function, scanning transmission electron microscopy, Raman spectroscopy, and density functional theory modeling. Electrochemical characterization shows a capacity retention of ≈80% at 1000 mV s –1 (1.5-s charge/discharge time) as compared to 1 mV s –1 (≈16-min charge/discharge time) with cyclability for over 100 000 cycles. Energetics from density functional theory calculations indicate that proton storage occurs at the terminal oxygen sites within the hydrated interlayer. Last, optical micrographs collected during in situ Raman spectroscopy show reversible, multicolor electrochromism, with color changes from pale yellow to blue, purple, and last, orange as a function of proton content. These results highlight the use of selective etching of layered perovskites for the synthesis of metastable transition metal oxide materials and the use of H 2 W 2 O 7 as an anode material for proton-based energy storage or electrochromic applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Spatial‐Uniformity–Driven Bayesian Optimization for Rapid Development of Printed Perovskite Solar Cells

Printed metal halide perovskites can enable rapid, roll-to-roll manufacturing of a broad class of optoelectronics—flexible solar cells and imagers among them—while promising cost and speed advantages over incumbent silicon. However, though current methods offer high throughput and patterning capabilities, perovskite films’ spatial heterogeneity remains a challenge for large-area devices. Here, a spatial-uniformity-driven Bayesian optimization (BO) approach is leveraged to accelerate the development of printed perovskite solar cells and improve large-area device performance. Using a BO surrogate model, a 6D design space of ink chemistry and printing physics is explored via extensive iterative experimentation (≈100) informed by an objective function capturing spatial photoluminescence (PL) variance. It is discovered that optimizing for uniformity drives rapid advances in photovoltaic performance, yielding ≈20% power conversion efficiency (PCE) for small area (0.134 cm 2 ) devices and > 16% for large area (1 cm 2 ) devices. This machine-learning approach simultaneously enables rheological comparison of ink formulations that accelerate the leveling of Saffman-Taylor artifacts and improve film uniformity. Here, this showcases uniformity-driven BO as an efficient approach for uncovering the key printing physics and mitigating spatial heterogeneity to enable device scaling beyond small cell areas.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

In-pixel automatic threshold calibration for the CMS Endcap Timing Layer readout chip

We present the implementation and verification of an in-pixel automatic threshold calibration circuit for the CMS Endcap Timing Layer (ETL) in the High-Luminosity LHC upgrade. The discriminator threshold of the ETL readout chip (ETROC) needs to be calibrated regularly to mitigate the circuit baseline change. Traditional methods need a lot of communication through a slow control system hence are time-consuming. This paper describes an in-pixel automatic scheme with improvements in operating time and usability. In this scheme, a sample-accumulation circuit is used to measure the average discriminator output. A binary successive approximation and linear combination scan are applied to find the equivalent baseline. The actual calibration procedure has been first implemented in FPGA firmware and tested with the ETROC front-end prototype chip (ETROC0). The calibration circuit has been implemented with Triple Modular Redundancy (TMR) and verified with Single Event Effects (SEEs) simulation. A complete calibration process lasts 35 ms with a 40 MHz clock. In the worst case, the dynamic and static power consumption are estimated to be 300 uW and 10.4 uW, respectively. The circuit design, implemented in a 65 CMOS technology, will be integrated into ETROC2, the next iteration of the ETROC with a 16 x16 pixel matrix.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Lowering the reactor breakeven requirements for proton–boron 11 fusion

Recently, it has been shown that altering the natural collisional power flow of the proton–boron 11 (pB11) fusion reaction can significantly reduce the Lawson product of ion density and confinement time required to achieve ignition. However, these products are still onerous—on the order of 7×1015 cm−3 s under the most optimistic scenarios. Fortunately, a breakeven fusion power plant does not require an igniting plasma, but rather a reactor that produces more electrical power than it consumes. Here, we extend the existing 0D power balance analysis to check the conditions on power plant breakeven. We find that even for the base thermonuclear reaction, modern high-efficiency thermal engines should reduce the Lawson product to 1.2×1015 cm−3 s. We then explore the impact of several potential improvements, including fast proton heating, alpha power capture, direct conversion, and efficient heating. We find that such improvements could reduce the required Lawson product by a further order of magnitude, bringing aneutronic fusion to target ITER ion densities and confinement times.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Long plasma duration operation analyses with an international multi-machine (tokamaks and stellarators) database

Combined high-fusion performance and long-pulse operation is one of the key integration challenges for fusion energy development in magnetic devices. Addressing these challenges requires an integrated vision of physics and engineering aspects with the purpose of simultaneously increasing time duration and fusion performance. Significant progress has been made in tokamaks and stellarators, including very recent achievement in duration and/or performance. This progress is reviewed by analyzing the experimental data (109 plasma pulses with a total of 3200 data points, i.e. on average 29 data per pulse) provided by ten tokamaks (in alphabetical order: Axially Symmetric Divertor Experiment Upgrade, DIII-D, Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak, Joint European Torus, JT-60 Upgrade, Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research, tokamak à configuration variable, Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor, Tore Supra, W Environment in Steady-State Tokamak) and two stellarators (Large Helical Device and Wendelstein 7-X) expanding the pioneering work of Kikuchi (Kikuchi M. and Azumi M. 2015 Frontiers in Fusion Research II: Introduction to Modern Tokamak Physics (Springer)). Data have been gathered up to January 2022 and coordination has been provided by the recently created International Energy Agency-International Atomic Energy Agency international Coordination on International Challenges on Long duration OPeration group. By exploiting the multi-machine international database, recent progress in terms of injected energies (e.g. 1730 MJ in L-mode, 425 MJ in H-mode), durations (1056 s in L-mode, 101 s in H-mode), injected powers, and sustained performance will be reviewed. Progress has been made to sustain long-pulse operation in tokamaks and stellarators with superconducting coils, actively cooled components, and/or with metallic walls. The graph of the fusion triple products as a function of duration shows a dramatic reduction of, at least two orders of magnitude when increasing the plasma duration from less than 1 s to 100 s. Indeed, long-pulse operation is usually reached in dominant electron-heating modes at reduced density (current drive optimization) but with low ion temperatures ranging from 1 to 3 keV for discharges above 100 s. Difficulties in extending the duration may arise from coupling high heating powers over long durations and the evolving plasma-wall interaction towards an unstable operational domain. Possible causes limiting the duration and critical issues to be addressed prior to ITER operation and DEMO design are reported and analyzed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Red Noise–based False Alarm Thresholds for Astrophysical Periodograms via Whittle’s Approximation to the Likelihood

Astronomers who search for periodic signals using Lomb–Scargle periodograms rely on false alarm level (FAL) estimates to identify statistically significant peaks. Although FALs are often calculated from white noise models, many astronomical time series suffer from red noise. Prewhitening is a statistical technique in which a continuum model is subtracted from the log power spectrum estimate, after which the observer can proceed with a white-noise treatment. Here we present a prewhitening-based method of calculating frequency-dependent FALs. We fit power laws and autoregressive models of order 1 to each Lomb–Scargle periodogram by minimizing the Whittle approximation to the negative log-likelihood (NLL), then calculate FALs based on the best-fit model power spectrum. Our technique is a novel extension of the Whittle NLL to datasets with uneven time sampling. We demonstrate FAL calculations using observations of α Cen B, GJ 581, HD 192310, synthetic data from the radial velocity (RV) fitting challenge, and Kepler observations of a differential rotator. The Kepler data analysis shows that only true rotation signals are detected by red noise FALs, while white noise FALs suggest all spurious peaks in the low-frequency range are significant. A high-frequency sinusoid injected into α Cen B logR$'$ HK observations exceeds the 1% red noise FAL despite having only 8.9% of the power of the dominant rotation signal. In a periodogram of HD 192310 RVs, peaks associated with differential rotation and planets are detected against the 5% red noise FAL without iterative model fitting or subtraction. The software for calculating red noise–based FALs is available on GitHub.

Astrostatistics (1882)↗

Reassessing energy deposition for the ITER 5 MA vertical displacement event with an improved DINA model

The beryllium (Be) main chamber wall interaction during a 5 MA/1.8 T upward, unmitigated VDE scenario, first analysed in [J. Coburn et al., Phys. Scr. T171 (2020) 014076] for ITER, has been re-evaluated using the latest energy deposition analysis software. Updates to the DINA disruption model are summarized, including an improved numerical convergence for the 0D power balance, limitations on the safety factor within the plasma core, and the choice to maintain a constant plasma +halo poloidal cross-section. Such updates result in a broad halo region and higher radiated power fractions compared to previous models. The new scenario lasts for ~75 ms and deposits ~29 MJ of energy, with the radial distribution of parallel heat flux q‖(r)resembling an exponential falloff with an effective λ_q=75-198 mm. A maximum halo width w_h of 0.52 m at the outboard midplane is observed. SMITER field line tracing and energy deposition simulations calculate a q_{⊥,max} of ~83 MW/m^2 on the upper first wall panels (FWP). Heat transfer calculations with the MEMOS-U code show that the FWP surface temperature reaches ~1000 K, well below the Be melt threshold. Variations of this 5 MA scenario with Be im-purity densities from 0 to 3∙10^19 m^-3 also remain below the melt threshold despite differences in energy deposition and duration. These results are in contrast to the early study which predicted melt damage to the first wall [J. Coburn et al., Phys. Scr. T171 (2020) 014076], and emphasize the importance of accurate models for the halo width w_h and the heat flux distribution q‖(r)within that halo width. The 2020 halo model in DINA has been compared with halo current experiments on COMPASS, JET, and Alcator C-Mod, and the preliminary results build confidence in the broad halo width predictions. Results for the 5 MA VDE are compared with those for a 15 MA equivalent, generated using the new DINA model. At the higher current, significant melting of the upper FWP is to be expected.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Analysis of the inter-species power balance in JET plasmas

Most auxiliary heating methods provide heating to more than one particle species (electrons, ions, impurities) in a fusion plasma. This can lead to substantial temperature differences between species, depending on conditions such as heating power to the different species and collisionality, with temperature differences between species limited by inter-species thermal equipartition and transport. The analysis of the steady-state electron-ion and impurity-ion power balances presented in this paper are used for consistency-checking experimental ion and electron temperature measurements and for inferring the main ion temperature from measured impurity temperatures. As ion temperature measurements by charge exchange spectroscopy (CXS) based on impurity ions have become more difficult and time-consuming since the installation of the ITER-like wall (ILW) with Be and W PFC's, knowing the maximum sustainable temperature difference between ions and electrons, |T i -T e | allows rejecting erroneous measurements. It also obviates the need for an ion temperature measurement, if an electron temperature measurement is available and |T i - T e | cannot be larger than the combined errors of the underlying measurements. A power balance analysis is also required for estimating the errors of the ion and electron heat fluxes prior to any species-resolved transport analysis. The ion-impurity temperature differences are usually found to be small due to strong thermal equipartition between ion species. However, they can approach 10% in JET-ILW low density, high power discharges, such the ones under development for a future JET deuterium–tritium campaign (Joffrin et al 2019 Nucl. Fusion). This has a generally small, but not always negligible effect on the calculation of fusion reaction rates, which depend on main ion temperatures. An important outcome of this analysis is that temperature differences between impurity species are always much smaller than between the impurities and hydrogenic species and can usually be neglected. The article presents two methods for calculating the impurity-to-main ion temperature ratio. Finally, this analysis leads to a method for the reconstruction ion temperature profiles from ion temperature data available at only one or a small number of spatial locations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗