Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “PROBABILITY”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17

Probability of Initiation in Neutron Transport

We discuss the numerical solution of the nonlinear integro-differential equation for the probability of a divergent neutron chain in a stationary system (i.e., the probability of initiation (POI)). We follow the development described in Bell’s classic paper on the stochastic theory of neutron transport. As noted by Bell, the linearized form of this equation resembles the linear adjoint neutron transport equation. A matrix formalism for the discretized steady state (or forward) neutron equation in slab geometry is first developed and is then used to derive the discrete adjoint equation. A main advantage of this discrete development is that the resulting discrete adjoint equation does not depend upon how the multigroup cross sections for the forward problem are obtained. That is, we derive the discrete adjoint directly from the discrete forward equations rather than discretizing directly the adjoint equation. This also guarantees that the discrete adjoint operator is consistent with the inner product used to define the adjoint operator. We discuss three approaches for the numerical solution of the POI equations, and present numerical results on several test problems. The three solution methods are a simple fixed-point iteration, a second approach that is akin to a nonlinear Power iteration, and a third approach which uses a Newton-Krylov nonlinear solver. We also give sufficient conditions to guarantee the existence and uniqueness of nontrivial solutions to our discrete POI equations when the discrete system is supercritical, and that only the trivial solution exists when the discrete system is subcritical. Our approach is modeled after the analysis presented for the continuous POI equations by Mokhtar-Kharroubi and Jarmouni-Idrissi, and by Pazy and Rabinowitz.

42 ENGINEERING↗

CI-MBPT line strengths and atomic probabilities for some transitions of neutral iodine

Iodine is a promising alternative to expensive xenon as a propellant for electric propulsion devices. Iodine optical spectroscopy is a valuable diagnostic tool for optimization of the iodine propellant. Recently, some measurements have been conducted with cells containing iodine plasma, and iodine atomic absorption at several wavelengths (911, 906, 206 and 1315 nm) was measured with a Ti:sapphire laser. Motivated by these experiments and future applications, here we have calculated line strengths and atomic probabilities for the transitions between different types of 5s 2 5p 5 , 5s 2 5p 4 6s, 5s 2 5p 4 6p and 5s 2 5p 4 5d states of atomic iodine, using configuration-interaction many-body perturbation theory. Since experimental transition data for atomic iodine are only available for a relatively small number of transitions, we also performed calculations for the bromine atom, to further validate our approach. We found good agreement between our theory and available experimental data for both elements in most cases. Therefore, we believe that our predicted line strengths and transition probabilities are quite reliable and will be useful for iodine spectroscopy.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

What is the probability that direct detection experiments have observed dark matter?

In Dark Matter direct detection we are facing the situation of some experiments reporting positive signals which are in conflict with limits from other experiments. Such conclusions are subject to large uncertainties introduced by the poorly known local Dark Matter distribution. We present a method to calculate an upper bound on the joint probability of obtaining the outcome of two potentially conflicting experiments under the assumption that the Dark Matter hypothesis is correct, but completely independent of assumptions about the Dark Matter distribution. In this way we can quantify the compatibility of two experiments in an astrophysics independent way. We illustrate our method by testing the compatibility of the hints reported by DAMA and CDMS-Si with the limits from the LUX and SuperCDMS experiments. The method does not require Monte Carlo simulations but is mostly based on using Poisson statistics. In order to deal with signals of few events we introduce the so-called ''signal length'' to take into account energy information. The signal length method provides a simple way to calculate the probability to obtain a given experimental outcome under a specified Dark Matter and background hypothesis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Configuration-interaction many-body perturbation theory for La II electric-dipole transition probabilities

We report that accurate transition probabilities of La II ion are calculated using configuration-interaction many-body perturbation theory with 10 adjustable parameters, seven of which are evaluated from energies of the La III single-valence electron ion. Comparison is given for transitions probabilities and lifetimes with experiments and theories. Close agreement with experiment is observed for most transitions. The theoretical approach can be extended to other divalent atoms and ions with strong valence-core interactions and to more complex atoms. Laslty, the theory will be useful for opacity evaluation and astrophysical applications.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Accurate measurement of the sticking time and sticking probability of Rb atoms on a polydimethylsiloxane coating

We present the results of a systematic study of Knudsen’s flow of Rb atoms in cylindrical capillary cells coated with a polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) compound. The purpose of the investigation is to determine the characterization of the coating in terms of the sticking probability and sticking time of Rb on the two types of coating of high and medium viscosities. We report the measurement of the sticking probability of a Rb atom to the coating equal to 4.3 × 10{sup −5}, which corresponds to the number of bounces 2.3 × 10{sup 4} at room temperature. These parameters are the same for the two kinds of PDMS used. We find that at room temperature, the respective sticking times for high-viscosity and medium-viscosity PDMS are 22 ± 3 μs and 49 ± 6 μs. These sticking times are about million times larger than the sticking time derived from the surface Rb atom adsorption energy and temperature of the coating. A tentative explanation of this surprising result is proposed based on the bulk diffusion of the atoms that collide with the surface and penetrate inside the coating. The results can be important in many resonance cell experiments, such as the efficient magnetooptical trapping of rare elements or radioactive isotopes and in experiments on the light-induced drift effect.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

K{sub β} to K{sub α} X-ray intensity ratios and K to L shell vacancy transfer probabilities of Co, Ni, Cu, and Zn

The K to L shell total vacancy transfer probabilities of low Z elements Co, Ni, Cu, and Zn are estimated by measuring the K{sub β} to K{sub α} intensity ratio adopting the 2π-geometry. The target elements were excited by 32.86 keV barium K-shell X-rays from a weak {sup 137}Cs γ-ray source. The emitted K-shell X-rays were detected using a low energy HPGe X-ray detector coupled to a 16 k MCA. The measured intensity ratios and the total vacancy transfer probabilities are compared with theoretical results and others’ work, establishing a good agreement.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Frequency analysis of uncertain structures using imprecise probability

Two new methods for finite element based frequency analysis of a structure with uncertainty are developed. An imprecise probability formulation based on enveloping p-boxes is used to quantify the uncertainty present in the mechanical characteristics of the structure. For each element, independent variations are considered. Using the two developed methods, P-box Frequency Analysis (PFA) and Interval Monte-Carlo Frequency Analysis (IMFA), sharp bounds on natural circular frequencies at different probability levels are obtained. These methods establish a framework for handling incomplete information in structural dynamics. Numerical example problems are presented that illustrate the capabilities of the new methods along with discussions on their computational efficiency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SE Great Basin Play Fairway Analysis PFA Models and Probability Map

This submission includes a Na/K geothermometer probability greater than 200 deg C map, as well as two play fairway analysis (PFA) models. The probability map acts as a composite risk segment for the PFA models. The PFA models differ in their application of magnetotelluric conductors as composite risk segments. These PFA models map out the geothermal potential in the region of SE Great Basin, Utah.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Clear-Sky Probability for the August 21, 2017, Total Solar Eclipse Using the NREL National Solar Radiation Database

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and collaborators have created a clear-sky probability analysis to help guide viewers of the August 21, 2017, total solar eclipse, the first continent-spanning eclipse in nearly 100 years in the United States. Using cloud and solar data from NREL's National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), the analysis provides cloudless sky probabilities specific to the date and time of the eclipse. Although this paper is not intended to be an eclipse weather forecast, the detailed maps can help guide eclipse enthusiasts to likely optimal viewing locations. Additionally, high-resolution data are presented for the centerline of the path of totality, representing the likelihood for cloudless skies and atmospheric clarity. The NSRDB provides industry, academia, and other stakeholders with high-resolution solar irradiance data to support feasibility analyses for photovoltaic and concentrating solar power generation projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A consistent, Bayesian, approach to the cross section probability distribution in the unresolved resonance region

The cross sections of neutron-induced reactions can be divided into three energy ranges: the resolved resonance region (RRR), the unresolved resonance region (URR), and the fast region. In general, the cross sections in the URR show significant fluctuations that cannot be predicted and cannot be experimentally resolved, thus, it is commonly assumed that the cross section at a specific energy is given by a probability distribution function (PDF) over a range of values that can span several orders of magnitude. The current methodology used to describe such behavior is to construct the PDF by stochastically generating resonance ladders and numerically measuring the PDF. The resonance ladders are sampled using known resonance statistical properties and average resonance widths and spacings extrapolated from the RRR. Although this is a standard and widely used technique, it is computationally very expensive, therefore, an alternative, analytical, approach would be preferable due to the considerable speed up of the computational time in real life applications. Moreover, the current methodology does not take into account existing experimental data, such for total and capture cross sections, that are available for many nuclei. Finally, this approach was developed to be used in reactor-scale applications and it is not suited for use in single-event applications. In this work we will rethink the entire approach to the PDF construction using a Bayesian mindset. This will allow us to provide a different definition of the PDF that allows a much faster calculation of the higher-temperature PDFs and a proper combination of theoretical and experimental PDFs following the probability theory. We will also show that our definition is well suited for single-event applications and we will make an explicit connection between our method and the standard approach. We do this by showing that the central limit theorem applies and our method leads to the same PDF obtained with the standard methodology, for a large number of events per history.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Cross Check of NOvA Oscillation Probabilities

In this note we perform a cross check of the programs used by NOvA to calculate the 3-flavor oscillation probabilities with a independent program using a different method. The comparison is performed at 6 significant figures and the agreement, $|\Delta P|/P$ is better than $10^{-5}$, as good as can be expected with 6 significant figures. In addition, a simple and accurate alternative method to calculate the oscillation probabilities is outlined and compared in the L/E range and matter density relevant for the NOvA experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Probability of cell hits in selected organs and tissues by high-LET particles at the ISS orbit

The fluence of high-LET particles (HLP) with LET infinity H2O greater than 15 keV micrometers-1 in selected organs and tissues were measured with plastic nuclear track detectors using a life-size human phantom on the 9th Shuttle-Mir Mission (STS-91). The planar-track fluence of HLP during the 9.8-day mission ranged from 1.9 x 10(3) n cm-2 (bladder) to 5.1 x 10(3) n cm-2 (brain) by a factor of 2.7. Based on these data, a probability of HLP hits to a matured cell of each organ or tissue was roughly estimated for a 90-day ISS mission. In the calculation, all cells were assumed to be spheres with a geometric cross-sectional area of 500 micrometers2 and the cell-hit frequency from isotropic space radiation can be described by the Poisson-distribution function. As results, the probability of one or more than 1 hit to a single cell by HLP for 90 days ranged from 17% to 38%; that of two or more than 2 hits was estimated to be 1.3-8.2%. c2002 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Simple gain probability functions for large reflector antennas of JPL/NASA

Simple models for the patterns as well as their cumulative gain probability and probability density functions of the Deep Space Network antennas are developed. These are needed for the study and evaluation of interference from unwanted sources such as the emerging terrestrial system, High Density Fixed Service, with the Ka-band receiving antenna systems in Goldstone Station of the Deep Space Network.

large reflector antenna probability density functi↗

Probability Simulations by Non-Lipschitz Chaos

It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-Lipschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices. Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.

classical dynamics classical probabilities probabi↗

Probability Quantization for Multiplication-Free Binary Arithmetic Coding

A method has been developed to improve on Witten's binary arithmetic coding procedure of tracking a high value and a low value. The new method approximates the probability of the less probable symbol, which improves the worst-case coding efficiency.

coding binary arithmetic coding probability quanti↗