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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Pricing and Energy Trading in Peer-to-Peer Zero Marginal-Cost Microgrids

Efforts to utilize 100% renewable energy in community microgrids require new approaches to energy markets and transactions to efficiently address periods of scarce energy supply. In this paper we contribute to the promising approach of peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading in two main ways: analysis of a centralized, welfare-maximizing economic dispatch that characterizes optimal price and allocations, and a novel P2P system for negotiating energy trades that yields physically feasible and at least weakly Pareto-optimal outcomes. Our main results are 1) that optimal pricing is insufficient to induce agents with batteries to take optimal actions, 2) a novel P2P algorithm to addresses this while keeping private information, 3) a formal proof that this algorithm converges to the centralized solution in the case of two agents negotiating for a single period, and 4) numerical simulations of the P2P algorithm performance with up to 10 agents and 24 periods that show it converges on average to total welfare within 0.1% of the social optimum in on the order of 10s to 100s of iterations, increasing with the number of agents, time periods, and total storage capacity.

batteries↗
DOE OSTI2022

A New Evaluation Metric for Demand Response-Driven Real-Time Price Prediction Towards Sustainable Manufacturing

Abstract The increasing industry energy demand highlights the urgency of demand response management, while the emerging smart manufacturing technologies pave the way for the implementation of real-time price (RTP)-based demand response management towards sustainable manufacturing. The demand response management requires scheduling of manufacturing systems based on RTP predictions, and thus the prediction quality can directly alter the effectiveness of demand response. However, since the general price prediction algorithms and prediction evaluation metrics are not specifically designed for RTP in demand response problems, a good RTP prediction obtained and evaluated by these algorithms and metrics may not be suitable for demand response scheduling. Therefore, in this study, the relationships between the effectiveness of demand response for manufacturing systems and evaluation results from six commonly used metrics are investigated. Meanwhile, a new metric called k-peak distance (KPD), considering the characteristics of the demand response problem, is proposed and compared with the other six metrics. Furthermore, an encoder-decoder long short-term memory recurrent neural network with KPD is proposed to provide better RTP prediction for manufacturing demand response problems. The case studies indicate that the proposed KPD metric shows a 1.8–3.6 times higher correlation with the demand response effectiveness compared to the other metrics. In addition, the production schedule based on the RTP prediction obtained from the proposed algorithm can improve the effectiveness of demand response by 23.4% on average.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

ambrosia: An R package for calculating and analyzing food demand that is responsive to changing incomes and prices

The ambrosia R package was developed to calculate food demand for staples and non-staple commodities that is responsive to changing levels of incomes and prices. ambrosia implements the framework to quantify food demand as established by Edmonds et al. (Edmonds et al. 2017) and allows the user to explore and estimate different variables related to the food demand system. Currently ambrosia provides 3 main functions: (1) calculation of food demand for any given set of parameters including income levels and prices (2) estimation of parameters within a given a dataset. Note: ambrosia is used to calculate parameters for the food demand model implemented in the Global Change Analysis Model(GCAM) (3) exploration and preparation of raw data before starting a parameter estimation

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2012

Recovery Act: Electrochromic Glazing Technology: Improved Performance, Lower Price (Final Report)

The growing dependency of the US on energy imports and anticipated further increases in energy prices reinforce the concerns about meeting the energy demand in the future and one element of a secure energy future is conservation. It is estimated that the buildings sector represents 40% of the US's total energy consumption. And buildings produce as much as one third of the greenhouse gas emissions primarily through fossil fuel usage during their operational phase. A significant fraction of this energy usage is simply due to inefficient window technology. Electrochromic (EC) windows allow electronic control of their optical properties so that the transparency to light can be adjusted from clear to dark. This ability to control the amount of solar energy allowed into the building can be advantageously used to minimize lighting, heating and air conditioning costs. Currently, the penetration of EC windows into the marketplace is extremely small, and consequently there is a huge opportunity for energy savings if this market can be expanded. In order to increase the potential energy savings it is necessary to increase the quantity of EC windows in operation. Additionally, any incremental improvement in the energy performance of each window will add to the potential energy savings. The overall goals of this project were therefore to improve the energy performance and lower the cost of dynamic (EC) smart windows for residential and commercial building applications. This project is obviously of benefit to the public by addressing two major areas: lowering the cost and improving the energy performance of EC glazings. The high level goals for these activities were: (i) to improve the range between the clear and the tinted state, (ii) reduce the price of EC windows by utilizing lower cost materials, (iii) lowering the U-Value, and (iv) ensure the proposed changes have no detrimental effect to the proven durability of the window. SAGE Electrochromics Inc. is the only company in the US which has a track record of producing EC windows, and presently has a small operational factory in Faribault MN which is shipping products throughout the world. There is a much larger factory currently under construction close by. This project was targeted specifically to address the issues outlined above, with a view to implementation on the new high volume manufacturing facility. Each of the Tasks which were addressed in this project is relatively straightforward to implement in this new facility and so the benefits of the work will be realized quickly. The research described here has helped to understand and provide solutions to several interesting and previously unresolved issues of the technology as well as make progress in areas which will have a significant impact on energy saving. In particular several materials improvements have been made, and tasks related to throughput and yield improvements have been completed. All of this has been accomplished without any detrimental effect on the proven durability of the SageGlass EC device. The project was divided into four main areas: 1. Improvement of the Properties of the EC device by material enhancements (Task 2); 2. Reduce the cost of production by improving the efficiency and yields of some key manufacturing processes (Task 3); 3. Further reduce the cost by significant modifications to the structure of the device (Task 4); 4. Ensure the durability of the EC device is not affected by any of the changes resulting from these activities (Task 5). A detailed description of the activities carried out in these areas is given in the following report, along with the aims and goals of the work. We will see that we have completed Tasks 2 and 3 fully, and the durability of the resulting device structure has been unaffected. Some of Task 4 was not carried out because of difficulties with integrating the installation of the required targets into the production coater due to external constraints not related to this project. We will also see that the durability of the devices produced as a result of this work was largely unaffected by the changes made here, and so we can conclude that the objectives of Task 5 have also been fulfilled. As a result, the future production of EC windows has benefited greatly from this work. We anticipate higher volumes and better yields for devices with an improved EC performance from the new high volume manufacturing facility currently under construction at SAGE.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2014

AEP Ohio gridSMART Demonstration Project Real-Time Pricing Demonstration Analysis

This report contributes initial findings from an analysis of significant aspects of the gridSMART® Real-Time Pricing (RTP) – Double Auction demonstration project. Over the course of four years, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) worked with American Electric Power (AEP), Ohio and Battelle Memorial Institute to design, build, and operate an innovative system to engage residential consumers and their end-use resources in a participatory approach to electric system operations, an incentive-based approach that has the promise of providing greater efficiency under normal operating conditions and greater flexibility to react under situations of system stress. The material contained in this report supplements the findings documented by AEP Ohio in the main body of the gridSMART report. It delves into three main areas: impacts on system operations, impacts on households, and observations about the sensitivity of load to price changes.

Widergren, Steven E.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Fundamental Drivers of the Cost and Price of Operating Reserves

Operating reserves impose a cost on the electric power system by forcing system operators to keep partially loaded spinning generators available for responding to system contingencies variable demand. In many regions of the United States, thermal power plants provide a large fraction of the operating reserve requirement. Alternative sources of operating reserves, such as demand response and energy storage, may provide more efficient sources of these reserves. However, to estimate the potential value of these services, the cost of reserve services under various grid conditions must first be established. This analysis used a commercial grid simulation tool to evaluate the cost and price of several operating reserve services, including spinning contingency reserves and upward regulation reserves. These reserve products were evaluated in a utility system in the western United States, considering different system flexibilities, renewable energy penetration, and other sensitivities. The analysis demonstrates that the price of operating reserves depend highly on many assumptions regarding the operational flexibility of the generation fleet, including ramp rates and the fraction of fleet available to provide reserves.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2015

Tracking the Sun VIII. The Installed Price of Residential and Non-Residential Photovoltaic Systems in the United States

Now in its eighth edition, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)’s Tracking the Sun report series is dedicated to summarizing trends in the installed price of grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. The present report focuses on residential and nonresidential systems installed through year-end 2014, with preliminary trends for the first half of 2015. As noted in the text box below, this year’s report incorporates a number of important changes and enhancements. Among those changes, this year's report focuses solely on residential and nonresidential PV systems; data on utility-scale PV are reported in LBNL’s companion Utility-Scale Solar report series. Installed pricing trends presented within this report derive primarily from project-level data reported to state agencies and utilities that administer PV incentive programs, solar renewable energy credit (SREC) registration systems, or interconnection processes. In total, data were collected for roughly 400,000 individual PV systems, representing 81% of all U.S. residential and non-residential PV capacity installed through 2014 and 62% of capacity installed in 2014, though a smaller subset of this data were used in analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Utility-Scale Solar 2014. An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States

Other than the nine Solar Energy Generation Systems (“SEGS”) parabolic trough projects built in the 1980s, virtually no large-scale or “utility-scale” solar projects – defined here to include any groundmounted photovoltaic (“PV”), concentrating photovoltaic (“CPV”), or concentrating solar thermal power (“CSP”) project larger than 5 MW AC – existed in the United States prior to 2007. By 2012 – just five years later – utility-scale had become the largest sector of the overall PV market in the United States, a distinction that was repeated in both 2013 and 2014 and that is expected to continue for at least the next few years. Over this same short period, CSP also experienced a bit of a renaissance in the United States, with a number of large new parabolic trough and power tower systems – some including thermal storage – achieving commercial operation. With this critical mass of new utility-scale projects now online and in some cases having operated for a number of years (generating not only electricity, but also empirical data that can be mined), the rapidly growing utility-scale sector is ripe for analysis. This report, the third edition in an ongoing annual series, meets this need through in-depth, annually updated, data-driven analysis of not just installed project costs or prices – i.e., the traditional realm of solar economics analyses – but also operating costs, capacity factors, and power purchase agreement (“PPA”) prices from a large sample of utility-scale solar projects in the United States. Given its current dominance in the market, utility-scale PV also dominates much of this report, though data from CPV and CSP projects are presented where appropriate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Utility-Scale Solar 2015: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States

The utility-scale solar sector—defined here to include any ground-mounted photovoltaic (“PV”), concentrating photovoltaic (“CPV”), or concentrating solar power (“CSP”) project that is larger than 5 MWAC in capacity—has led the overall U.S. solar market in terms of installed capacity since 2012. It is expected to maintain its market-leading position for at least another five years, driven in part by December 2015’s three-year extension of the 30% federal investment tax credit (“ITC”) through 2019 (coupled with a favorable switch to a “start construction” rather than a “placed in service” eligibility requirement, and a gradual phase down of the credit to 10% by 2022). In fact, in 2016 alone, the utility-scale sector is projected to install more than twice as much new capacity as it ever has previously in a single year. This unprecedented boom makes it difficult, yet more important than ever, to stay abreast of the latest utility-scale market developments and trends. This report—the fourth edition in an ongoing annual series—is intended to help meet this need, by providing in-depth, annually updated, data-driven analysis of the utility-scale solar project fleet in the United States. Drawing on empirical project-level data from a wide range of sources, this report analyzes not just installed project costs or prices—i.e., the traditional realm of most solar economic analyses—but also operating costs, capacity factors, and power purchase agreement (“PPA”) prices from a large sample of utility-scale solar projects throughout the United States. Given its current dominance in the market, utility-scale PV also dominates much of this report, though data from CPV and CSP projects are also presented where appropriate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Predicting Baseline for Analysis of Electricity Pricing

To understand the impact of new pricing structure on residential electricity demands, we need a baseline model that captures every factor other than the new price. The standard baseline is a randomized control group, however, a good control group is hard to design. This motivates us to devlop data-driven approaches. We explored many techniques and designed a strategy, named LTAP, that could predict the hourly usage years ahead. The key challenge in this process is that the daily cycle of electricity demand peaks a few hours after the temperature reaching its peak. Existing methods rely on the lagged variables of recent past usages to enforce this daily cycle. These methods have trouble making predictions years ahead. LTAP avoids this trouble by assuming the daily usage profile is determined by temperature and other factors. In a comparison against a well-designed control group, LTAP is found to produce accurate predictions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Impacts of Variable Renewable Energy on Bulk Power System Assets, Pricing, and Costs

We synthesize available literature, data, and analysis on the degree to which growth in variable renewable energy (VRE) has impacted to date or might in the future impact bulk power system assets, pricing, and costs. We do not analyze impacts on specific power plants, instead focusing on national and regional system-level trends. The issues addressed are highly context dependent—affected by the underlying generation mix of the system, the amount of wind and solar penetration, and the design and structure of the bulk power system in each region. Moreover, analyzing the impacts of VRE on the bulk power system is a complex area of research and there is much more to be done to increase understanding of how VRE impacts the dynamics of current and future electricity markets. While more analysis is warranted, including additional location-specific assessments, several high-level findings emerge from this synthesis: -VRE Is Already Impacting the Bulk Power Market -VRE Impacts on Average Wholesale Prices Have Been Modest -VRE Impacts on Power Plant Retirements Have So Far Been Limited -VRE Impacts on the Bulk Power Market will Grow with Penetration -The ’System Value’ of VRE will Decline with Penetration -Power System Flexibility Can Reduce the Rate of VRE Value Decline All generation types are unique in some respect—bringing benefits and challenges to the power system—and wholesale markets, industry investments, and operational procedures have evolved over time to manage the characteristics of a changing generation fleet. With increased VRE penetrations, power system planners, operators, regulators, and policymakers will continue to be challenged to develop methods to smoothly and cost-effectively manage the reliable integration of these new and growing sources of electricity supply.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Nuclear Technology R&D Strategies in an Era of Energy Price Uncertainty

This project assessed technology strategies for nuclear power plants that could improve economic competitiveness in uncertain future electricity markets. Heat storage is a promising class of technologies that would allow reactors to produce steam at maximum power while giving the plant operator the flexibility to sell more electricity at higher prices. We used the Texas (ERCOT) and New England (ISO-NE) electricity markets to evaluate future market scenarios for heat storage. Hourly unit commitment and capacity change models were used to model short- and long-term market dynamics. Three heat storage technologies were identified as the most promising for nearterm deployment with existing light-water reactors: steam accumulators, twotank molten salt storage, and high-temperature-compatible concrete. We developed technoeconomic models for each of these technologies to estimate direct, overnight capital costs based on the output power [MW], energy storage capacity [MWh or GJ th ], and heat loss rate [%/hr]. Our modeling results found that adding heat storage to a nuclear power plant could increase net revenue in some cases. The greatest improvements were seen when increasing the heat storage power output with a separate steam turbine. Increasing energy storage capacity was beneficial through 12 hours of full-output storage time, but there was little to no benefit for higher energy/ power ratios. High natural gas prices as well as increasing amounts of solar PV and wind were both beneficial to storage economics, while high demand and load growth and a carbon tax were helpful in some scenarios. We recommend that heat storage systems for nuclear power plants be developed with multiple future markets in mind, namely electricity generation, operating reserves, long-term capacity, and industrial heat. Heat storage system Integration risk should be mitigated early in the development process to accelerate deployments.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States - 2019 Edition

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)’s annual Tracking the Sun report summarizes installed prices and other trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. This edition focuses on systems installed through year-end 2018, with preliminary trends for the first half of 2019. As in years past, the primary emphasis is on describing changes in installed prices over time and variation across projects. This year’s report also includes an expanded discussion of other key technology and market trends, along with several other new features, as noted in the text box below.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Utility-Scale Solar: Empirical Trends in Project Technology, Cost, Performance, and PPA Pricing in the United States (2019 Ed.)

The utility-scale solar sector has led the overall U.S. solar market in terms of installed capacity since 2012. In 2018, the utility-scale sector accounted for nearly 60% of all new solar capacity, and is expected to maintain its market-leading position for at least another six years. More than three-quarters of all states, representing all regions of the country, are now home to one or more utility-scale solar projects. This report—the seventh in an ongoing annual series—provides in-depth data-driven analysis of the utility-scale solar project fleet in the United States. Drawing on empirical project-level data from a wide range of sources, this report analyzes technology trends, installed project prices, operating costs, capacity factors, power purchase agreement (“PPA”) prices, the levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), and the market value of solar. The report also includes data and observations about completed or recently announced solar+storage projects. Given its current preeminence in the market, utility-scale PV also dominates much of this report, though data from CPV and CSP projects are also presented where appropriate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

2018 Energy Storage Pricing Survey

Since grid energy storage is still a nascent industry, it is often difficult to obtain capital costs for various energy storage technologies. This type of information is required to perform an initial cost-benefit analysis related to a potential energy storage deployment, as well as to compare different energy storage technology options. The goal of this report is to summarize energy storage capital costs that were obtained from industry pricing surveys. The methodology breaks down the cost of an energy storage system into the following categories: the storage module; the balance of system; the power conversion system; the energy management system; and the engineering, procurement, and construction costs. Pricing data is presented for the following technologies: pumped hydro storage; compressed air energy storage; sodium battery storage; zinc battery storage; long duration flywheels; short duration flywheels; vanadium flow batteries; zinc bromide flow batteries; iron flow batteries; nickel batteries; lithium ion energy batteries; lithium ion power batteries; lead acid batteries; and advanced lead carbon batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

2019 Energy Storage Pricing Survey

Since grid energy storage is still evolving rapidly, it is often difficult to obtain project specific capital costs for various energy storage technologies. This information is necessary to evaluate the profitability of the facility, as well as comparing different energy storage technology options. The goal of this report is to summarize energy storage capital costs that were obtained from industry pricing surveys. The methodology breaks down the cost of an energy storage system into the following component categories: the storage module; the balance of system; the power conversion system; the energy management system; and the engineering, procurement, and construction costs. By evaluating each of the different component costs separately, a synthetic system cost can be developed that provides internal pricing consistency between different project sizes using the same technology, as well as between different technologies that utilize similar components.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Modeling Electric Generation Capital Costs with Uncertain Future CO 2 Pricing

As new environmental regulations are reevaluated and various tax subsidies begin to expire, the outlook for investors in power generation may be more uncertain than ever. There are many electric power generation studies and forecasts published by a wide array of entities from private consulting firms to government agencies and national labs. These studies show which power generation technologies are favored to be constructed under the assumptions within each future scenario, and many people in businesses and government use these studies for planning purposes and decision-making. One common need for assumptions in these studies is the rate of return investors will require for constructing new generation. It is shown in this paper that for each one percent added to the cost of capital (CoC) above a base level, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) increases by 1-to-4 percent for generation with a 30-year life and debt term, a length commonly used for conventional generation. Therefore, if analysts make a distinction in the CoC for different technologies without quantitative support, it could result in misleading technologies being chosen as favored when facing regulatory uncertainty. The practice of adding a penalty (percentage adder) to the CoC was initially discovered in the Annual Energy Outlook, published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This paper presents the framework typically used in scenario analysis for selecting a CoC, consistent with the practice in long-range planning models that seek to identify the best future generation technologies for meeting electricity demand. Examples are provided on why full specification and consistency is necessary to obtain accurate results for any scenario. It is also shown in this paper how the mischaracterization of regulatory uncertainty to address the uncertainty about CO2 mitigation in a scenario can lead to a misleading outcome when applying a risk penalty to the CoC. The analysis presented shows that applying a 3-percentage penalty to the CoC for fossil generation implies a different price per ton for each generation technology, which suggests the uncertainty about CO2 regulations would best be addressed through pricing sensitivity analyses rather than penalties added to the CoC.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scrap Supply Chains and Residual Impacts: Benchmarking Price Implications Today and Into the Future

This presentation introduces the effort to benchmark the relationship between the portion of residuals in scrap (principally copper) and prices for select steel grades. It updates a Yalamanchili et al. 1999 paper that was one of the first to offer a quantitative metric for this relationship. It relies principally on a literature review and interviews with scrap suppliers and steelmakers; it will also contain original analysis on how residual quantities in the scrap supply chain and scrap prices could change into the future given certain trends.

Scrap steel, copper residuals, copper tolerance, s↗