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At least 307 records · Page 17

Short Haul Civil Tiltrotor Study in MIDAS: Auto versus Manual Nacelle Procedures for Commanded Go-Around

Tiltrotor aircraft combine the speed and range of a turboprop performance with the ability to take off and land in a vertical mode like a helicopter. These aircraft will transport passengers from city center to city center and from satellite airports to major hub airports to make connections to long range travel. The Short Haul Civil Tiltrotor (SH(CT)) being studied by NASA is a concept 40 passenger civil tiltrotor (CTR) transport. The Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) was used to evaluate human performance in terms of crew procedures and pilot workload for a simulated 40 passenger Civil Tiltrotor Transport on a steep approach to a vertiport. The scenario for the simulation was a normal approach to the vertiport that is interrupted by a commanded go-around at the landing decision point. The simulation contrasted an automated discrete nacelle mode control with a fully manual nacelle control mode for the go-around. The MIDAS simulation showed that the pilot task loading during approach and for the commanded go-around is high and that pilot workload is near capacity throughout. The go-around in manual nacelle mode was most demanding, resulting in additional time requirements to complete necessary tasks.

Atencio, Adolph, Jr.↗

The Conference Proceedings of the 1999 Air Transport Research Group (ATRG) of the WCTR Society

Issues around direct flights across Taiwan Strait are always one of the hottest topics in eastern Asia transport market. Although the direct links have not been connected yet, they are still highly concerned by different disciplines of politics, laws, and management. Airlines and related business also watch closely to these issues for policy changes will easily affect their interests in Chinese market which the future of the air transportation in eastern Asia is heavily depending on. In the past decades, Hong Kong was the most important hub in this market; it will still be an important one in the future. It is proved, however, traffic on the link between Hong Kong and Taiwan can be shifted to the link between Macau and Taiwan, so can it be shifted to the links across Taiwan Strait. Moreover, outgoing passengers from China transferred in Hong Kong can also find transit services in Taiwan. These movements will possibly cause a big change in eastern Asian air transport system for there are millions of passengers travelling in this area. The uncertainties of direct links across Taiwan Strait are still leaving, some problems unsolved. Whether the direct links will be defined as international routes or domestic' routes are not clear; the selection of hubs and airlines to provide direct services are not yet made; even the type of freedoms and bilateral agreements can also change the market and network quite a lot. A much bigger volume of passengers can also be found if further travelling deregulation for Chinese to travel across Taiwan Strait can be made. All these variables are making issues around direct flights worthy of continuous observant.

Zhang, Anming↗

Alternative Perspectives on Risk

The goal of the commercial air transport system is to provide air transportation to the flying public at an acceptable cost with minimal risk. in an ideal situation these three goals would support each other. In fact, it is sometimes the case that the goals conflict: getting passengers to their destinations on time may conflict with fixing a minor mechanical malfunction that may or may not impact safety; flying a route that will avoid turbulence, thereby providing passengers with a more comfortable ride, may consume more fuel; managing traffic density may mean aircraft are delayed or must use an approach that will result in a long taxi to their gates, costing time and fuel. Various players in the system--pilots, dispatchers, controllers, as well as managers in the airline carriers and traffic management system--make decisions every day that involve trade-offs of benefits and costs. The prospect of revisions in the air traffic management system, with shifts in responsibilities from controllers to users, including airline operations center personnel and pilots, means that individuals may be performing either new jobs or old jobs under new guidance. It will be essential to know how the various players (a) perceive the risks and benefits associated with the decisions they will make under the old and new control structures, and (b) how much risk they are willing to accept in making decisions. Risk is here defined as the probability and magnitude of negative events (after Slovic, 1987). Of primary interest are risks associated with traffic, weather, and operational factors such as schedule, fuel consumption, and passenger service. Previous research has documented differences between groups in perceptions of risks associated with both everyday and aviation related situations. Risk perception varies as a function of familiarity with the situation, degree to which one is potentially affected by the risk, the level of control one has over the situation, and one's level of experience and responsibility in the situation. In our presentation we will consider several factors that may influence differences in risk perception, risk tolerance and risk management among the three major categories of participants in the aviation system (pilots, dispatchers, and controllers). Primary factors that may affect risk attitudes (the collective term we will use for the three components of risk) include: expertise or job-specific knowledge or training, personal involvement or vulnerability to consequences, goals, time horizon (imminence of consequences), span of control and type of control, and information or technology support. These will be considered in the context of five different types of risk (physical threat, economic, social, legal, and ethical). A study designed to study differences between pilots and controllers in their perceptions and responses to traffic risks under the present and a user-preferred control situation will be described. Future studies involving dispatchers' risk perceptions regarding various types of risk will be discussed.

Davison, Jeannie↗

A Supersonic Business-Jet Concept Designed for Low Sonic Boom

Ongoing human-response studies of sonic-boom noise indicated that a previous level of 1.0 psf might still be too annoying. This led to studies of a Supersonic Business Jet (SBJ), which might generate lower, more acceptable ground overpressures. To determine whether methods for designing a High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) could be successfully applied, a SBJ concept was designed at the langley Research Center. It would cruise at Mach 2, carry 10 passengers for 4000 nautical miles, and generate a 0.50 psf or less on the ground under the flight path at start of cruise. Results indicated that a 10-passenger, low-boom SBJ design was just as technically demanding as a 300-passenger, low-boom HSCT design. In this report, the sources of these technical problems are identified, and ideas for addressing them are discussed.

Mack, Robert J.↗

Meeting Air Transportation Demand in 2025 by Using Larger Aircraft and Alternative Routing to Complement NextGen Operational Improvements

A study was performed that investigates the use of larger aircraft and alternative routing to complement the capacity benefits expected from the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) in 2025. National Airspace System (NAS) delays for the 2025 demand projected by the Transportation Systems Analysis Models (TSAM) were assessed using NASA s Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES). The shift in demand from commercial airline to automobile and from one airline route to another was investigated by adding the route delays determined from the ACES simulation to the travel times used in the TSAM and re-generating new flight scenarios. The ACES simulation results from this study determined that NextGen Operational Improvements alone do not provide sufficient airport capacity to meet the projected demand for passenger air travel in 2025 without significant system delays. Using larger aircraft with more seats on high-demand routes and introducing new direct routes, where demand warrants, significantly reduces delays, complementing NextGen improvements. Another significant finding of this study is that the adaptive behavior of passengers to avoid congested airline-routes is an important factor when projecting demand for transportation systems. Passengers will choose an alternative mode of transportation or alternative airline routes to avoid congested routes, thereby reducing delays to acceptable levels for the 2025 scenario; the penalty being that alternative routes and the option to drive increases overall trip time by 0.4% and may be less convenient than the first-choice route.

Smith, Jeremy C.↗

Aircraft System Analysis of Technology Benefits to Civil Transport Rotorcraft

An aircraft systems analysis was conducted to evaluate the net benefits of advanced technologies on two conceptual civil transport rotorcraft, to quantify the potential of future civil rotorcraft to become operationally viable and economically competitive, with the ultimate goal of alleviating congestion in our airways, runways and terminals. These questions are three of many that must be resolved for the successful introduction of civil transport rotorcraft: 1) Can civil transport rotorcraft actually relieve current airport congestion and improve overall air traffic and passenger throughput at busy hub airports? What is that operational scenario? 2) Can advanced technology make future civil rotorcraft economically competitive in scheduled passenger transport? What are those enabling technologies? 3) What level of investment is necessary to mature the key enabling technologies? This study addresses the first two questions, and several others, by applying a systems analysis approach to a broad spectrum of potential advanced technologies at a conceptual level of design. The method was to identify those advanced technologies that showed the most promise and to quantify their benefits to the design, development, production, and operation of future civil rotorcraft. Adjustments are made to sizing data by subject matter experts to reflect the introduction of new technologies that offer improved performance, reduced weight, reduced maintenance, or reduced cost. This study used projected benefits from new, advanced technologies, generally based on research results, analysis, or small-scale test data. The technologies are identified, categorized and quantified in the report. The net benefit of selected advanced technologies is quantified for two civil transport rotorcraft concepts, a Single Main Rotor Compound (SMRC) helicopter designed for 250 ktas cruise airspeed and a Civil Tilt Rotor (CTR) designed for 350 ktas cruise airspeed. A baseline design of each concept was sized for a representative civil passenger transport mission, using current technology. Individual advanced technologies are quantified and applied to resize the aircraft, thereby quantifying the net benefit of that technology to the rotorcraft. Estimates of development cost, production cost and operating and support costs are made with a commercial cost estimating program, calibrated to Boeing products with adjustments for future civil production processes. A cost metric of cash direct operating cost per available seat-mile (DOC ASM) is used to compare the cost benefit of the technologies. The same metric is used to compare results with turboprop operating costs. Reduced engine SFC was the most advantageous advanced technology for both rotorcraft concepts. Structural weight reduction was the second most beneficial technology, followed by advanced drive systems and then by technology for rotorcraft performance. Most of the technologies evaluated in this report should apply similarly to conventional helicopters. The implicit assumption is that resources will become available to mature the technologies for fullscale production aircraft. That assumption is certainly the weak link in any forecast of future possibilities. The analysis serves the purpose of identifying which technologies offer the most potential benefit, and thus the ones that should receive the highest priority for continued development. This study directly addressed the following NASA Subsonic Rotary Wing (SRW) subtopics: SR W.4.8.I.J Establish capability for rotorcraft system analysis and SRW. 4.8.I.4 Conduct limited technology benefit assessment on baseline rotorcraft configurations.

Wilkerson, Joseph B.↗

Hybrid Wing Body Configuration Scaling Study

The Hybrid Wing Body (HWB) configuration is a subsonic transport aircraft concept with the potential to simultaneously reduce fuel burn, noise and emissions compared to conventional concepts. Initial studies focused on very large applications with capacities for up to 800 passengers. More recent studies have focused on the large, twin-aisle class with passenger capacities in the 300-450 range. Efficiently scaling this concept down to the single aisle or smaller size is challenging due to geometric constraints, potentially reducing the desirability of this concept for applications in the 100-200 passenger capacity range or less. In order to quantify this scaling challenge, five advanced conventional (tube-and-wing layout) concepts were developed, along with equivalent (payload/range/technology) HWB concepts, and their fuel burn performance compared. The comparison showed that the HWB concepts have fuel burn advantages over advanced tube-and-wing concepts in the larger payload/range classes (roughly 767-sized and larger). Although noise performance was not quantified in this study, the HWB concept has distinct noise advantages over the conventional tube-and-wing configuration due to the inherent noise shielding features of the HWB. NASA s Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project will continue to investigate advanced configurations, such as the HWB, due to their potential to simultaneously reduce fuel burn, noise and emissions.

Nickol, Craig L.↗

Agent Based Modeling of Air Carrier Behavior for Evaluation of Technology Equipage and Adoption

As part of ongoing research, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and LMI developed a research framework to assist policymakers in identifying impacts on the U.S. air transportation system (ATS) of potential policies and technology related to the implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). This framework, called the Air Transportation System Evolutionary Simulation (ATS-EVOS), integrates multiple models into a single process flow to best simulate responses by U.S. commercial airlines and other ATS stakeholders to NextGen-related policies, and in turn, how those responses impact the ATS. Development of this framework required NASA and LMI to create an agent-based model of airline and passenger behavior. This Airline Evolutionary Simulation (AIRLINE-EVOS) models airline decisions about tactical airfare and schedule adjustments, and strategic decisions related to fleet assignments, market prices, and equipage. AIRLINE-EVOS models its own heterogeneous population of passenger agents that interact with airlines; this interaction allows the model to simulate the cycle of action-reaction as airlines compete with each other and engage passengers. We validated a baseline configuration of AIRLINE-EVOS against Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) data and subject matter expert opinion, and we verified the ATS-EVOS framework and agent behavior logic through scenario-based experiments. These experiments demonstrated AIRLINE-EVOS's capabilities in responding to an input price shock in fuel prices, and to equipage challenges in a series of analyses based on potential incentive policies for best equipped best served, optimal-wind routing, and traffic management initiative exemption concepts..

Horio, Brant M.↗

Tiltrotor Conceptual Design

This year end progress report summarizes our engineering study of a large, VTOL civil transport that we began in August 2015. The task has been to follow up on work reported in Reference 1, which described a NASA, 2005 design study showing that a 120 passenger, tiltrotor aircraft capable of cruising at 350 knots at 30,000 feet was quite feasible. The objective of our task this year has been to investigate the feasibility of a 120 passenger, tiltrotor aircraft capable of cruising at 425 to 450 knots at altitude and having VSTOL capability at Denver (i.e., 5,000 feet) with an outside air temperature (OAT) of 95°F. A corollary to our work has been to examine the suitability of the engineering tools available to conduct the concept design study we have begun. We have relegated two key pieces of corollary work to an appendix and used the body of this report to transmit progress in our preliminary performance trend studies. By way of background, in January of 2016, Mr. Harris presented a paper titled The VSTOL Performance Gap at the AHS Technical Meeting on Aeromechanics Design for Vertical Lift. This presentation is included in this year end report as Appendix A. A key concluding chart in that presentation is repeated here as Fig. 1. The Rotorcraft Branch at NASA Ames was already studying a tiltrotor suited for the regional carrier routes, but no effort beyond the 2005 results reported in Ref. 1 was going on. Therefore, we took on the task of extending the 350 knot, 120 passenger tiltrotor studies up to speeds associated with major airline routes.

Conceptual Design↗

Urban Air Mobility Network and Vehicle Type - Modeling and Assessment

This paper describes exploratory modeling of an on-demand urban air mobility (UAM) network and sizing of vehicles to operate within that network. UAM seeks to improve the movement of goods and people around a metropolitan area by utilizing the airspace for transport. Aircraft sizing and overall network performance results are presented that include comparisons of battery-electric and various hybrid-electric vehicles that are fueled with diesel, jet fuel, compressed natural gas, and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Hybrid-electric propulsion systems consisting of internal combustion engine-generators, turbine-generators, and solid oxide fuel cells are explored. Ultimately, the "performance" of the UAM network over a day for each of the different vehicle types, propulsion systems, and stored energy sources is described in four parameters: 1) the average cost per seat-kilometer, which considers the costs of the energy/fuel, vehicle acquisition, insurance, maintenance, pilot, and battery replacement costs, 2) carbon dioxide emission rates associated with vehicle operations, 3) the average passenger wait time, and 4) the average load factor, i.e., the total number of seats filled with paying passengers divided by the total number of available seats. Results indicate that the "dispatch model," which determines when and where aircraft are flown around the UAM network, is critical in determining the overall network performance. This is due to the often-conflicting desires to allow passengers to depart with minimal wait time while still maintaining a high load factor to reduce operating costs. Additionally, regardless of the dispatch model, hybrid-electric aircraft powered by internal combustion engines fueled with diesel or LNG are consistently the lowest cost per seat-kilometer. Battery-electric and future technology LNG/solid oxide fuel cell aircraft produce the lowest emissions (assuming the California grid) with LNG-fueled internal combustion engine-powered hybrids producing only slightly more carbon dioxide.

Assessment↗

An Analysis of COVID-19’s Impact on U.S. Aviation

To better understand the effects of COVID-19 and prepare for crises in the future, the changes in the aviation industry during the pandemic were analyzed. Data was gathered on airlines’ economic status, passenger travel, air cargo, avionics manufacturing, and the environment. It was found that passenger air travel was severely depressed, dropping 96% in April 2020 compared to April 2019 [1]. Air cargo and manufacturing also felt the effects of the decrease in air traffic. In comparison to the previous year, air cargo capacity in July 2020 was down 28% [2], and manufacturing companies, such as Boeing, have seen more than a 10% decrease in revenue [3]. Many companies have adapted to the pandemic with new protocols and procedures, such as social distancing guidelines and using passenger planes as cargo planes. Based on these actions taken guidelines were created for future crises. The objective is to facilitate a faster recovery and a more prepared airspace system. Lastly, health guidelines and areas of research that are relevant after a global pandemic are outlined.

Trishala Jain↗

An Analysis of COVID-19’s Impact on U.S. Aviation

To better understand the effects of COVID-19 and prepare for crises in the future, the changes in the aviation industry during the pandemic were analyzed. Data was gathered on airlines’ economic status, passenger travel, air cargo, avionics manufacturing, and the environment. It was found that passenger air travel was severely depressed, dropping 96% in April 2020 compared to April 2019. Air cargo and manufacturing also felt the effects of the decrease in air traffic. In comparison to the previous year, air cargo capacity in July 2020 was down 28%, and manufacturing companies, such as Boeing, have seen more than a 10% decrease in revenue. Many companies have adapted to the pandemic with new protocols and procedures, such as social distancing guidelines and using passenger planes as cargo planes. Based on these actions taken guidelines were created for future crises. The objective is to facilitate a faster recovery and a more prepared airspace system. Lastly, health guidelines and areas of research that are relevant after a global pandemic are outlined.

Trishala Madhu Jain↗

Impact of COVID-19 on Aviation in America

To better understand the effects of COVID-19 and prepare for crises in the future, the changes in the aviation industry during the pandemic were analyzed. Data was gathered on airlines’ economic status, passenger travel, air cargo, avionics manufacturing, and the environment. It was found that passenger air travel was severely depressed, dropping 96% in April 2020 compared to April 2019 [1]. Air cargo and manufacturing also felt the effects of the decrease in air traffic. In comparison to the previous year, air cargo capacity in July 2020 was down 28% [2], and manufacturing companies, such as Boeing, have seen more than a 10% decrease in revenue [3]. Many companies have adapted to the pandemic with new protocols and procedures, such as social distancing guidelines and using passenger planes as cargo planes. Based on these actions taken guidelines were created for future crises. The objective is to facilitate a faster recovery and a more prepared airspace system. Lastly, health guidelines and areas of research that are relevant after a global pandemic are outlined.

Trishala Jain↗

Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study

At the request of NASA, Deloitte conducted an independent market study to provide an independent assessment on the economic viability of hypersonic and supersonic air transportation to inform ongoing strategic planning of research areas within the government and industry and to focus on the areas for technology development and vehicle design requirements. The Study was organized into three primary areas of investigation: Defining the Market appetite for high speed air transport, Defining the business cases; and Assessing Barriers in the environment. The market demand was assessed across a range of Mach numbers from Mach 2 to Mach 6 and ticket price elasticity was determined by surveying potential customers, literature reviews and stakeholder and expert interviews for passenger aircraft, private aircraft and cargo markets. The business case analyses assessed potential business cases across a three-dimensional trade space: flight speed (Mach 2-6), passenger capacity (20-200 passengers) and design range (2500-7500 nmi.). By using the SpaceWorks Rosetta model, we were able to assess each combination in the trade space and to determine the steady state Internal Rate of Return (IRR or profit) was our primary figure of merit and allowed us to rank order the business cases to understand the trends and draw conclusions from the complex trade space. Lastly, we assessed other potential barriers to high speed flight. These were determined through literature review and stakeholder/expert interviews. Once these were compiled, we developed an objective scoring system to allow us to determine overall significance and challenge to aspiring market entrants. The majority of the research was conducted between July and December of 2020 and the results compiled and communicated to NASA in the first quarter of calendar year 2021. This report, along with the companion briefing deck, document the summation of our research and serve as a data repository for use by future researchers in government and industry.

hypersonic aircraft↗

TO36 Hypersonic Study

Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study. At the request of NASA, Deloitte conducted an independent market study to provide an independent assessment on the economic viability of hypersonic and supersonic air transportation to inform ongoing strategic planning of research areas within the government and industry and to focus on the areas for technology development and vehicle design requirements. The Study was organized into three primary areas of investigation: Defining the Market appetite for high speed air transport, Defining the business cases; and Assessing Barriers in the environment. The market demand was assessed across a range of Mach numbers from Mach 2 to Mach 6 and ticket price elasticity was determined by surveying potential customers, literature reviews and stakeholder and expert interviews for passenger aircraft, private aircraft and cargo markets. The business case analyses assessed potential business cases across a three-dimensional trade space: flight speed (Mach 2-6), passenger capacity (20-200 passengers) and design range (2500-7500 nmi.). By using the SpaceWorks Rosetta model, we were able to assess each combination in the trade space and to determine the steady state Internal Rate of Return (IRR or profit) was our primary figure of merit and allowed us to rank order the business cases to understand the trends and draw conclusions from the complex trade space. Lastly, we assessed other potential barriers to high speed flight. These were determined through literature review and stakeholder/expert interviews. Once these were compiled, we developed an objective scoring system to allow us to determine overall significance and challenge to aspiring market entrants. The majority of the research was conducted between July and December of 2020 and the results compiled and communicated to NASA in the first quarter of calendar year 2021. This report, along with the companion briefing deck, document the summation of our research and serve as a data repository for use by future researchers in government and industry.

hypersonic aircraft↗

Advanced 2030 Single Aisle Aircraft Modeling for the Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration Program

The NASA Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration Program is aimed at advancing electrified powertrains for future aircraft platforms through flight demonstrations for various passenger classes and power levels. The objective of this paper is to establish non-electrified reference models for 2030 aircraft with advanced technologies for the large single aisle (150 passenger) and small single aisle (100 passenger) vehicle classes. Current state-of-art aircraft are first identified and modeled using a proprietary design tool called Environmental Design Space. Next, through a comprehensive literature review, engine, airframe and composite material technologies that are expected to be available by 2030 are identified, and their respective benefits are applied to the 2030 vehicles. The engine cycle and the aircraft design are then optimized to provide the maximum fuel burn benefit while meeting all the specified aircraft requirements. While the large single aisle aircraft range requirement is kept the same as the current state-of-art aircraft, the small single aisle aircraft is optimized for a reduced range of 1000 nmi. Expected fuel burn benefit from these technologies along with any propulsive, aerodynamic and weight benefit will be summarized in this paper.

single aisle aircraft↗

A Hybrid Transfer Function Procedure for Broadband Auralization Within Small Flight Vehicle Interiors

Auralization of the sound fields within flight vehicle interiors is of interest to aircraft designers considering crew and passenger ride quality. Computer models can be used to predict the filtering effects that the fuselage structure and interior volume have on the exterior sound field in order to simulate the resulting cabin interior noise. However, this can become expensive when a wide frequency range of analysis suitable for passenger auralization is desired. This is particularly the case when using deterministic modeling methods such as finite element analysis (FEA) wherein prohibitively high levels of detail and finite element discretizations are required to resolve the wavelengths at high frequencies. On the contrary, Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA), while not capturing important modal behaviors at low frequencies, is better suited for higher frequency analyses where structural and interior dynamics exhibit high modal overlap and spatially averaged physical quantities suffice. For this reason, a hybrid procedure is considered here that utilizes FE modal solutions at lower frequencies and SEA results at higher frequencies. A transfer function dataset containing the exterior to interior vibroacoustic filtering effect is calculated accordingly and subsequently stored to be used for a variety of exterior dynamic load cases. At low frequencies, the transfer function dataset detail is related to the level of FE model refinement whereas at high frequencies it functions as an equalizer array with a level of detail corresponding to the SEA subsystem partitioning scheme. The above procedure is described herein and demonstrated on a six passenger flight vehicle with eight propulsors in a hover flight condition.

auralization↗

Market Analysis of the Subsonic Single Aft Engine (SUSAN) Transport Aircraft Concept

This paper presents a detailed market analysis of the U.S. domestic aviation market in support of the NASA subsonic single aft engine (SUSAN) regional aircraft concept. The current scoping of the SUSAN concept is intended to compete in the medium to large (160-180 seats) narrow body market, with range capabilities of up to 2,500 nautical miles, and expected fuel burn reduction up to 40% relative to conventional 2 engine aircraft. Recent historical trends suggest growth in aviation passenger demand will continue to be met by the narrow body fleet of aircraft; however, a comprehensive review is required to understand how these current fleet trends could evolve in the future. Moreover, estimating and forecasting the potential market size is the critical first step when developing a new aircraft concept to determine commercial viability. To assist in the trade space exploration of the SUSAN concept, a generalized traffic and fleet forecast of the U.S. aviation market is conducted. Using publicly available aviation data from the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and passenger demand forecasts from FAA, a multinomial logit model is estimated to predict the composition of the future fleet by aircraft size. These fleet forecasts are then used as inputs for a fleet evolution model to provide required operational forecasts at the aircraft specific level. Forecast scenarios with and without the SUSAN concept are compared, and a breakeven analysis is performed to evaluate the commercial viability of the SUSAN aircraft from an operating cost perspective. Results from the multinomial logit fleet forecast indicate the narrow body size category of 150+ seats dominating the market, comprising 87% of the future revenue passenger miles market share in 2050 (up from 60% in 2019). Forecast scenarios with the SUSAN concept see a maximum cumulative decline in fuel cost of 20% by 2050, while a breakeven analysis shows competitive advantage of the SUSAN aircraft, due to expected fuel burn reduction, at moderate levels of increased maintenance and capital costs.

Jacob M. Wishart↗