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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA GEOS Composition Forecast System: GEOS-CF

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) produces high-resolution analysis and forecasts for weather, aerosols, and air quality. Since 2019, the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model provides global near-real-time historical estimates and daily 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition to the public at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km) from the surface up to the lower mesosphere. This composition forecast system (“GEOS-CF”) combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module to deliver detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants, including the policy-relevant species such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The GEOS-CF is a tool for scientists and the public health community. This presentation will cover 1) an overview of the GEOS-CF modeling framework compared to the GEOS-5 Nature Run with Chemistry (used in the post-processing to make the TEMPO Proxy Data), 2) description of the file used to support the TEMPO retrieval team, and 3) research and development activities as the GEOS-CF system continues to evolve to include multi-constituent data assimilation.

K. Emma Knowland↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA GEOS Composition Forecast System, GEOS-CF

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) produces high-resolution analysis and forecasts for weather, aerosols, and air quality. Since 2019, the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model provides global near-real-time historical estimates and daily 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition to the public at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km) from the surface up to the lower mesosphere. This composition forecast system (“GEOS-CF”) combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module to deliver detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants, including the policy-relevant species such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The GEOS-CF is a tool for scientists and the public health community. This presentation will cover 1) an overview of the GEOS-CF modeling framework and data/visualization access, 2) examples of current and future applications to support NASA missions (e.g., a priori for trace gas retrievals by TEMPO, ground-based instrument teams and field campaigns), and 3) research and development activities as the GEOS-CF system continues to evolve to include multi-constituent data assimilation, near-real time emission adjustment estimates, down-scaling methods to urban-scale, and data access on Google Earth Engine, Amazon Web Services, and other platforms to integrate our state-of-the-science air quality information onto platforms used by stakeholders, air quality managers, and the public.

K. Emma Knowland↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Near Real Time Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

This presentation provides an overview of NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) high-resolution global forecast and reanalysis products for weather, aerosols, and air quality. The NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model radiatively coupled to GOCART aerosol module assimilates 2-dimensional column-integrated aerosol optical depth (AOD) at one wavelength (550 nm) in order to constrain the model's background AOD in order to have the best historical estimate and forecasts of AOD and particulate matter. Furthermore, the GEOS model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).

K Emma Knowland↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Near Real Time Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

This presentation provides an overview of NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) high-resolution global forecast and reanalysis products for weather, aerosols, and air quality. The NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model radiatively coupled to GOCART aerosol module assimilates 2-dimensional column-integrated aerosol optical depth (AOD) at one wavelength (550 nm) in order to constrain the model's background AOD in order to have the best historical estimate and forecasts of AOD and particulate matter. Furthermore, the GEOS model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).

K Emma Knowland↗
NASA NTRS2014

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS)

Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the planetary boundary layer (PBL) of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface, particularly within weakly-sheared environments such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in land surface and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather over eastern Africa. KMS currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, making use of the NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the KMS-WRF runs on a regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMS for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities through new datasets and tools. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR is providing enhanced, experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMS as part of this collaboration. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMS-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of data interpolated from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) model soil moisture and temperature fields. Additionally, realtime green vegetation fraction (GVF) data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi- NPP) satellite will be incorporated into the KMS-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS). Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMS using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET; Brown et al. 2009) package in conjunction with a dynamic scripting package developed by SPoRT (Zavodsky et al. 2014), to help quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. Furthermore, the transition of these MET tools will enable KMS to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This paper presents preliminary efforts to improve land surface model initialization over eastern Africa in support of operations at KMS. The remainder of this extended abstract is organized as follows: The collaborating organizations involved in the project are described in Section 2; background information on LIS and the configuration for eastern Africa is presented in Section 3; the WRF configuration used in this modeling experiment is described in Section 4; sample experimental WRF output with and without LIS initialization data are given in Section 5; a summary is given in Section 6 followed by acknowledgements and references.

Case, Johnathan L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Requirements for an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) for Improved Regional Weather Prediction and Monitoring of Greenhouse Gases

Hyperspectral infrared atmospheric sounders (e.g., the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on Met Op) provide highly accurate temperature and water vapor profiles in the lower to upper troposphere. These systems are vital operational components of our National Weather Prediction system and the AIRS has demonstrated over 6 hrs of forecast improvement on the 5 day operational forecast. Despite the success in the mid troposphere to lower stratosphere, a reduction in sensitivity and accuracy has been seen in these systems in the boundary layer over land. In this paper we demonstrate the potential improvement associated with higher spatial resolution (1 km vs currently 13.5 km) on the accuracy of boundary layer products with an added consequence of higher yield of cloud free scenes. This latter feature is related to the number of samples that can be assimilated and has also shown to have a significant impact on improving forecast accuracy. We also present a set of frequencies and resolutions that will improve vertical resolution of temperature and water vapor and trace gas species throughout the atmosphere. Development of an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) with these improvements will improve weather forecast at the regional scale and of tropical storms and hurricanes. Improvements are also expected in the accuracy of the water vapor and cloud properties products, enhancing process studies and providing a better match to the resolution of future climate models. The improvements of technology required for the ALS are consistent with the current state of technology as demonstrated in NASA Instrument Incubator Program and NOAA's Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES) formulation phase development programs.

temperature↗
NASA NTRS2014

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Department

Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the boundary layer of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface within weakly-sheared environments, such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in numerical weather prediction models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-end events over east Africa. KMD currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, invoking the Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) dynamical core. They make use of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Weather Service Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the WRF-NMM model runs on a 7-km regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMD for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR will provide experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMD. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMD-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will be run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of interpolated Global Forecast System soil moisture and temperature data. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite will be incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service. Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMD using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) package, in order to quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. The transition of these MET tools will enable KMD to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This presentation will highlight preliminary verification results of WRF runs over east Africa using the LIS land surface initialization.

Case. Jonathan↗
NASA NTRS2020

NASA's High-Resolution GEOS Forecasting and Reanalysis Products: Support for TOLNet

Stratospheric intrusions (SIs) the introduction of ozone-rich stratospheric air into the troposphere – have been the interest of decades of research for their link with surface ozone air quality exceedances, especially at the high elevations in the western USA in springtime; however, the impact of SIs in the remaining seasons and over the rest of the USA is less clear. We can expect MERRA-2 to realistically represent both atmospheric dynamics and composition. The operational GEOS weather forecasting system, GEOS-FP, has a similar ozone observing system to MERRA-2, while NASA's new global high-resolution air quality forecast system, GEOS-CF, combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12), simulating a wide range of additional air pollutants and tracers which strengthens this detailed analysis of the intrusions and the sources for the high ozone concentrations. Using a multitude of observational datasets, including lidar, air craft, ozonesondes and air quality monitoring surface sites, in combination with the GEOS forecast and reanalysis products, we aim to provide the public with tools which are available in near-real time to enhance their capability to identify the impact of stratospheric air on surface ozone concentrations separate from anthropogenic sources. In particular, improved understanding of the connections between large-scale climate variability and local-scale dynamically-driven air quality events may support improved seasonal prediction of SI events.

Knowland, K. Emma↗
NASA NTRS1989

A reduced version of the NMC DERF 2 data set

The National Meterological Center (NMC) Dynamical Extended Range Forecast (DERF 2) data represents a major computational effort to better ascertain the potential for extended range forecasts and to develop a strategy for performing operational extended range forecasts using dynamical models. A major stumbling block for using this data has been the sheer volume of data that must be processed to perform even simple calculations. The product of the data reduction described is a manageable data set that fits comfortably on five magnetic tapes or on one compact disc. The document outlines the data reduction process of the second phase of DERF data. It contains the description of the fields and the resolution of both the original and final fields. In order to assist the users of this data set, maps of selected fields, using both the original truncation at rhomboidal 30 and the truncation of the final data at triangular 20, are displayed.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2019

Near Real-Time Global Composition Forecasts at 25km Horizontal Resolution

We present a new high-resolution global composition forecast system produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) system combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Satellite observations are assimilated into the system for improved representation of weather and smoke.

Knowland, K. Emma↗
NASA NTRS2019

Near Real-Time Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

We present a new high-resolution global composition forecast system produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) system combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Satellite observations are assimilated into the system for improved representation of weather and smoke.

Knowland, K. Emma↗
NASA NTRS2019

Near Real-Time Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

We present a new high-resolution global composition forecast system produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) system combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Satellite observations are assimilated into the system for improved representation of weather and smoke.

Knowland, K. Emma↗
NASA NTRS2019

Air Pollution Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model: A Unified Tool from Local to Global Scales

We present a new high-resolution global composition forecast system produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) system combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Satellite observations are assimilated into the system for improved representation of weather and smoke.

Knowland, K. Emma↗
NASA NTRS1988

Solar proton event forecasts

The United States operates a space weather service to provide information on space hazards including solar proton events to Federal government agencies and other users who operate systems that are affected by disturbances in the upper atmosphere and interplanetary environment. The observation and prediction of solar proton events has been continuous through solar cycle 21 (1976 to 1986), establishing a base of experience that can be used in providing similar support to space operations in the 1990's. The observations, indices, alerts, and forecasts used in the service are described. Also provided is a short summary of the experience obtained from making proton event predictions in solar cycle 21 including the years 1976 to 1986.

Heckman, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multi-Model Subseasonal Prediction Experiment

SubX is a multi-model subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving subseasonal forecasts. Seven global models have produced seventeen years of retrospective (re-) forecasts and more than a year of weekly real-time forecasts. The re-forecasts and forecasts are archived at the Data Library of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, providing a comprehensive database for research on subseasonal to seasonal predictability and predictions. The SubX models show skill for temperature and precipitation three weeks ahead of time in specific regions. The SubX multi-model ensemble mean is more skillful than any individual model overall. Skill in simulating the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), two sources of subseasonal predictability, is also evaluated with skillful predictions of the MJO four weeks in advance and of the NAO 2 weeks in advance. SubX is also able to make useful contributions to operational forecast guidance at the Climate Prediction Center. Additionally, SubX provides information on the potential for extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones which can help emergency management and aid organizations to plan for disasters. (Capsule Summary) A research to operations project in service of developing better operational subseasonal forecasts.

Precipitation↗
NASA NTRS2009

An Operational Perspective of Total Lightning Information

The close and productive collaborations between the NWS Warning and Forecast Office, the Short Term Prediction and Research Transition Center at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama in Huntsville have provided a unique opportunity for science sharing and technology transfer. One significant technology transfer that has provided immediate benefits to NWS forecast and warning operations is the use of data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array. This network consists of ten VHF receivers deployed across northern Alabama and a base station located at the National Space Science and Technology Center. Preliminary investigations done at WFO Huntsville, along with other similar total lightning networks across the country, have shown distinct correlations between the time rate-of-change of total lightning and trends in intensity/severity of the parent convective cell. Since May 2003 when WFO HUN began receiving these data - in conjunction with other more traditional remotely sensed data (radar, satellite, and surface observations) -- have improved the situational awareness of the WFO staff. The use of total lightning information, either from current ground based systems or future space borne instrumentation, may substantially contribute to the NWS mission, by enhancing severe weather warning and decision-making processes. Operational use of the data has been maximized at WFO Huntsville through a process that includes forecaster training, product implementation, and post event analysis and assessments. Since receiving these data, over 50 surveys have been completed highlighting the use of total lightning information during significant events across the Tennessee Valley. In addition, around 150 specific cases of interest have been archived for collaborative post storm analysis. From these datasets, detailed trending information from radar and total lightning can be compared to corresponding damage reports. This presentation will emphasize the effective use of total lightning information in warning decision making along with best practices for implementation of new technologies into operations.

Nadler, David J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

On the impact of the FGGE on tropical forecasts

It has become evident from operational experience that a good forecast requires, in general, a good analysis. This is as true in the tropics as it is in the extratropics. One can find many examples of bad data being accepted by the analysis scheme and significantly degrading the subsequent forecast. Equally, a lack of data may result in a forecast completely missing the early development of, for example, a midlatitude cyclone or tropical depression. Also, single level data may be misinterpreted by an analysis scheme. These problems are compounded in the tropics by our relative ignorance of the dynamics, the necessarily crude descriptions of many important physical processes, and fundamental in analysis. The impact of the FGGE on tropical analysis/forecasting is reviewed.

Heckley, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Cloud Computing Applications in Support of Earth Science Activities at Marshall Space Flight Center

Currently, the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Platform is available to Agency personnel in a pre-release status as the system undergoes a formal operational readiness review. Over the past year, two projects within the Earth Science Office at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have been investigating the performance and value of Nebula s "Infrastructure as a Service", or "IaaS" concept and applying cloud computing concepts to advance their respective mission goals. The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique NASA satellite observations and weather forecasting capabilities for use within the operational forecasting community through partnerships with NOAA s National Weather Service (NWS). SPoRT has evaluated the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on virtual machines deployed within Nebula and used Nebula instances to simulate local forecasts in support of regional forecast studies of interest to select NWS forecast offices. In addition to weather forecasting applications, rapidly deployable Nebula virtual machines have supported the processing of high resolution NASA satellite imagery to support disaster assessment following the historic severe weather and tornado outbreak of April 27, 2011. Other modeling and satellite analysis activities are underway in support of NASA s SERVIR program, which integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor environmental change and improve disaster response in Central America, the Caribbean, Africa, and the Himalayas. Leveraging SPoRT s experience, SERVIR is working to establish a real-time weather forecasting model for Central America. Other modeling efforts include hydrologic forecasts for Kenya, driven by NASA satellite observations and reanalysis data sets provided by the broader meteorological community. Forecast modeling efforts are supplemented by short-term forecasts of convective initiation, determined by geostationary satellite observations processed on virtual machines powered by Nebula.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗