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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Power Production, Inter- and Intra-Array Wake Losses from the U.S. East Coast Offshore Wind Energy Lease Areas

There is an urgent need to develop accurate predictions of power production, wake losses and array–array interactions from multi-GW offshore wind farms in order to enable developments that maximize power benefits, minimize levelized cost of energy and reduce investment uncertainty. New, climatologically representative simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are presented and analyzed to address these research needs with a specific focus on offshore wind energy lease areas along the U.S. east coast. These, uniquely detailed, simulations are designed to quantify important sources of wake-loss projection uncertainty. They sample across different wind turbine deployment scenarios and thus span the range of plausible installed capacity densities (ICDs) and also include two wind farm parameterizations (WFPs; Fitch and explicit wake parameterization (EWP)) and consider the precise WRF model release used. System-wide mean capacity factors for ICDs of 3.5 to 6.0 MWkm−2 range from 39 to 45% based on output from Fitch and 50 to 55% from EWP. Wake losses are 27–37% (Fitch) and 11–19% (EWP). The discrepancy in CF and wake losses from the two WFPs derives from two linked effects. First, EWP generates a weaker ‘deep array effect’ within the largest wind farm cluster (area of 3675 km2), though both parameterizations indicate substantial within-array wake losses. If 15 MW wind turbines are deployed at an ICD of 6 MWkm−2 the most heavily waked wind turbines generate an average of only 32–35% of the power of those that experience the freestream (undisturbed) flow. Nevertheless, there is no evidence for saturation of the resource. The wind power density (electrical power generation per unit of surface area) increases with ICD and lies between 2 and 3 Wm−2. Second, EWP also systematically generates smaller whole wind farm wakes. Sampling across all offshore wind energy lease areas and the range of ICD considered, the whole wind farm wake extent for a velocity deficit of 5% is 1.18 to 1.38 times larger in simulations with Fitch. Over three-quarters of the variability in normalized wake extents is attributable to variations in freestream wind speeds, turbulent kinetic energy and boundary layer depth. These dependencies on meteorological parameters allow for the development of computationally efficient emulators of wake extents from Fitch and EWP.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Case of Ozone Depletion

While the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is widely perceived as a space agency, since its inception NASA has had a mission dedicated to the home planet. Initially, this mission involved using space to better observe and predict weather and to enable worldwide communication. Meteorological and communication satellites showed the value of space for earthly endeavors in the 1960s. In 1972, NASA launched Landsat, and the era of earth-resource monitoring began. At the same time, in the late 1960s and early 1970s, the environmental movement swept throughout the United States and most industrialized countries. The first Earth Day event took place in 1970, and the government generally began to pay much more attention to issues of environmental quality. Mitigating pollution became an overriding objective for many agencies. NASA's existing mission to observe planet Earth was augmented in these years and directed more toward environmental quality. In the 1980s, NASA sought to plan and establish a new environmental effort that eventuated in the 1990s with the Earth Observing System (EOS). The Agency was able to make its initial mark via atmospheric monitoring, specifically ozone depletion. An important policy stimulus in many respects, ozone depletion spawned the Montreal Protocol of 1987 (the most significant international environmental treaty then in existence). It also was an issue critical to NASA's history that served as a bridge linking NASA's weather and land-resource satellites to NASA s concern for the global changes affecting the home planet. Significantly, as a global environmental problem, ozone depletion underscored the importance of NASA's ability to observe Earth from space. Moreover, the NASA management team's ability to apply large-scale research efforts and mobilize the talents of other agencies and the private sector illuminated its role as a lead agency capable of crossing organizational boundaries as well as the science-policy divide.

Lambright, W. Henry↗

NASA NTRS2015

Relationships Between Excessive Heat and Daily Mortality over the Coterminous U.S

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. Using National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) meteorological reanalysis data, we have developed several measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. These measures include daily maximum and minimum air temperatures, daily maximum heat indices and a new heat stress variable called Net Daily Heat Stress (NDHS) that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. All output has been created on the NLDAS 1/8 degree (approximately 12 km) grid and aggregated to the county level, which is the preferred geographic scale of analysis for public health researchers. County-level statistics have been made available through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. We have examined the relationship between excessive heat events, as defined in eight different ways from the various daily heat metrics, and heat-related and all-cause mortality defined in CDC's National Center for Health Statistics 'Multiple Causes of Death 1999-2010' dataset. To do this, we linked daily, county-level heat mortality counts with EHE occurrence based on each of the eight EHE definitions by region and nationally for the period 1999-2010. The objectives of this analysis are to determine (1) whether heat-related deaths can be clearly tied to excessive heat events, (2) what time lags are critical for predicting heat-related deaths, and (3) which of the heat metrics correlates best with mortality in each US region. Results show large regional differences in the correlations between heat and mortality. Also, the heat metric that provides the best indicator of mortality varied by region. Results from this research will potentially lead to improvements in our ability to anticipate and mitigate any significant impacts of extreme heat events on health.

heat↗

DOE OSTI2025

A new constraint on galaxy–halo connections of [O ii ] emitters via HOD modelling with angular clustering and luminosity functions from the Subaru HSC survey

ABSTRACT Establishing a robust connection model between emission-line galaxies (ELGs) and their host dark haloes is of paramount importance in anticipation of upcoming redshift surveys. We propose a novel halo occupation distribution (HOD) framework that incorporates galaxy luminosity, a key observable reflecting ELG star-formation activity, into the galaxy occupation model. This innovation enables prediction of galaxy luminosity functions (LFs) and facilitates joint analyses using both angular correlation functions (ACFs) and LFs. Using physical information from luminosity, our model provides more robust constraints on the ELG–halo connection compared to methods relying solely on ACF and number density constraints. Our model was applied to $\rm [O\, {\small II}]$-emitting galaxies observed at two redshift slices at $z=1.193$ and 1.471 from the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam PDR2. Our model effectively reproduces observed ACFs and LFs observed in both redshift slices. Compared to the established Geach et al. HOD model, our approach offers a more nuanced depiction of ELG occupation across halo mass ranges, suggesting a more realistic representation of ELG environments. Our findings suggest that ELGs at $z\sim 1.4$ may evolve into Milky-Way-like galaxies, as their inferred halo masses evolve accordingly based on the extended Press–Schechter formalism, highlighting their role as potential building blocks in galaxy formation scenarios. By incorporating the LF as a constraint linking galaxy luminosity to halo properties, our HOD model provides a more precise understanding of ELG-host halo relationships. Furthermore, this approach facilitates the generation of high-quality ELG mock catalogues for future surveys. As the LF is a fundamental observable, our framework is potentially applicable to diverse galaxy populations, offering a versatile tool for analysing data from next-generation galaxy surveys.

Ishikawa, Shogo (ORCID:0000000221184211)↗

DOE OSTI2022

A New Model for Simulating the Imbibition of a Wetting-Phase Fluid in a Matrix-Fracture Dual Connectivity System

The imbibition experiment is an effective approach for measuring petrophysical properties of porous media, with many such experiments performed over the past decade. Quite some empirical, analytical, and numerical models have been developed to simulate spontaneous imbibition of the wetting phase fluid into porous media, but limitations still exist. In previous studies, the imbibition process has been considered to give a piston-like displacement or the porous medium modeled as multiply-sized pores linked with bonds; both approaches fail to yield comprehensive results due to their neglect of the presence of irregular fractures or nonuniform flow paths through the matrix. By building a numerical model for simulating laboratory-scale experimental data, we performed imbibition tests on several fractured Barnett Shale samples having fractures either parallel ( P ) or transverse ( T ) to the bedding plane and used MATLAB to build a new numerical model by combining the imbibition process in fractures and the matrix using concepts from percolation theory. The experimental data show that the rocks with P -direction fractures have a more steady increase of imbibition rates than the case of T -direction one. As the shale matrix with low pore connectivity hampers the upward water movement, the imbibition rate of shales with T -direction fractures will decrease suddenly after the bottom layer in contact with water is saturated during the initial period. This wetting phase movement (WPM) model can simulate 3D porous media with 2D fractures. The rate of imbibition by fractured porous media is associated with physical parameters such as porosity and fracture distribution (e.g., the number and angle of fractures). Using Monte Carlo methods, we examined fracture parameters and predicted elapsed time and cumulative water imbibition, for the Barnett Shale samples. The results show that the rate of imbibed water mass is sensitive to the number of fractures directly connected to water source, and the connectivity between two neighboring grid cells is a key parameter for the wetting-front progression. The findings of this study can help to better understand the imbibition process with multiple influencing processes and factors in fractured-matrix rocks. Although the experiments, data simulation, and prediction results are based only on Barnett Shale samples, the model is readily applicable to imbibition tests of other fractured rocks to show the spatial and temporal behavior during a dynamic imbibition process that are not easily captured experimentally.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2004

A LEO Hyperspectral Mission Implementation for Global Carbon Cycle Observations

For both terrestrial and ocean carbon cycle science objectives, high resolution (less than l0 nm) imaging spectrometers capable of acquiring multiple regional to global scale observations per day should enable the development of new remote sensing measurements for important but as yet unobservable variables, with the overall goal of linking both terrestrial and ocean carbon cycle processes to climate variability. For terrestrial research, accurate estimates of carbon, water and energy (CWE) exchange between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere a needed to id- the geographical locations and temporal dynamics of carbon sources/sinks and to improve regional climate models and climate change assessments. It is an enormous challenge to estimate CWE exchange from the infrequent temporal coverage and sparse spectral information provided by most single polar-orbiting, earth-looking satellite. The available satellite observations lack a sufficient number of well-placed narrow bands from which to derive spectral indices that capture vegetation responses to stress conditions associated with down-regulation of photosynthesis. Physiological status can best be assessed with spectral indices based on continuous, narrow bands in the visible/near infrared spectra, as can seasonal and annual terrestrial productivity. For coastal and ocean constituents, narrow-band observations in the ultraviolet and visible are essential to investigate the variability, dynamics and biogeochemical cycles of the world's coastal and open ocean regions, which will in turn help in measuring ocean productivity and predicting the variability of ocean carbon uptake and its role in climate change.

Gervin, Janette C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nutrient and stress tolerance traits linked to fungal responses to global change: Four case studies

In this case study analysis, we identified fungal traits that were associated with the responses of taxa to 4 global change factors: elevated CO2, warming and drying, increased precipitation, and nitrogen (N) enrichment. We developed a trait-based framework predicting that as global change increases limitation of a given nutrient, fungal taxa with traits that target that nutrient will represent a larger proportion of the community (and vice versa). In addition, we expected that warming and drying and N enrichment would generate environmental stress for fungi and may select for stress tolerance traits. We tested the framework by analyzing fungal community data from previously published field manipulations and linking taxa to functional gene traits from the MycoCosm Fungal Portal. Altogether, fungal genera tended to respond similarly to 3 elements of global change: increased precipitation, N enrichment, and warming and drying. The genera that proliferated under these changes also tended to possess functional genes for stress tolerance, which suggests that these global changes—even increases in precipitation—could have caused environmental stress that selected for certain taxa. In addition, these genera did not exhibit a strong capacity for C breakdown or P acquisition, so soil C turnover may slow down or remain unchanged following shifts in fungal community composition under global change. Since we did not find strong evidence that changes in nutrient limitation select for taxa with traits that target the more limiting nutrient, we revised our trait-based framework. The new framework sorts fungal taxa into Stress Tolerating versus C and P Targeting groups, with the global change elements of increased precipitation, warming and drying, and N enrichment selecting for the stress tolerators.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2002

A provisional regulatory gene network for specification of endomesoderm in the sea urchin embryo

We present the current form of a provisional DNA sequence-based regulatory gene network that explains in outline how endomesodermal specification in the sea urchin embryo is controlled. The model of the network is in a continuous process of revision and growth as new genes are added and new experimental results become available; see http://www.its.caltech.edu/~mirsky/endomeso.htm (End-mes Gene Network Update) for the latest version. The network contains over 40 genes at present, many newly uncovered in the course of this work, and most encoding DNA-binding transcriptional regulatory factors. The architecture of the network was approached initially by construction of a logic model that integrated the extensive experimental evidence now available on endomesoderm specification. The internal linkages between genes in the network have been determined functionally, by measurement of the effects of regulatory perturbations on the expression of all relevant genes in the network. Five kinds of perturbation have been applied: (1) use of morpholino antisense oligonucleotides targeted to many of the key regulatory genes in the network; (2) transformation of other regulatory factors into dominant repressors by construction of Engrailed repressor domain fusions; (3) ectopic expression of given regulatory factors, from genetic expression constructs and from injected mRNAs; (4) blockade of the beta-catenin/Tcf pathway by introduction of mRNA encoding the intracellular domain of cadherin; and (5) blockade of the Notch signaling pathway by introduction of mRNA encoding the extracellular domain of the Notch receptor. The network model predicts the cis-regulatory inputs that link each gene into the network. Therefore, its architecture is testable by cis-regulatory analysis. Strongylocentrotus purpuratus and Lytechinus variegatus genomic BAC recombinants that include a large number of the genes in the network have been sequenced and annotated. Tests of the cis-regulatory predictions of the model are greatly facilitated by interspecific computational sequence comparison, which affords a rapid identification of likely cis-regulatory elements in advance of experimental analysis. The network specifies genomically encoded regulatory processes between early cleavage and gastrula stages. These control the specification of the micromere lineage and of the initial veg(2) endomesodermal domain; the blastula-stage separation of the central veg(2) mesodermal domain (i.e., the secondary mesenchyme progenitor field) from the peripheral veg(2) endodermal domain; the stabilization of specification state within these domains; and activation of some downstream differentiation genes. Each of the temporal-spatial phases of specification is represented in a subelement of the network model, that treats regulatory events within the relevant embryonic nuclei at particular stages. (c) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2021

Linking habitat suitability with a longleaf pine-hardwood model: Building a species-predictive fire-land management framework

Active management of fire-dependent ecosystems for specific species leads to complex tradeoffs, which affect conservation outcomes to other species. Therefore a multi-species evaluation of management actions is required. Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs) can help in predicting the likelihood of species occurrence using corresponding environmental variables and empirical relationships that link occurrence with specific environmental conditions. Incorporating multiple species into HSMs and relating them to habitat dynamics is crucial for ecosystems that require active management with prescribed fire. To address this issue, we developed multi-species HSM driven within an existing population model of the longleaf pine-hardwood ecosystem to assess the suitability of an ecosystem given different fire management strategies and environmental conditions. The population model used in this study provides spatial and temporal changes of longleaf pine-hardwood habitat structure in response to fire. These habitat values are used by the HSM to calculate habitat suitability for three threatened and endangered faunal species of this ecosystem, which all thrive with frequent fire, but have unique habitat requirements. Transient habitat conditions are traced to predict longleaf pine ecosystem trajectories under various management strategies, thereby evaluating current land management actions, such as thinning or prescribed fire frequencies. We tested a suite of environmental conditions to emphasize the sensitivity of the species to different fire management actions. The results of our modeling suggest that maximum suitable habitat for all three species can be achieved with fire frequency occurring at approximately once every three years. The modeling results support current management actions and provide a new habitat assessment tool that incorporates ecological factors for multiple species, thus providing for habitat optimization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development Of Thermodynamic and Kinetic Simulation Tools and Testing Procedures for Enhanced Durability of Concrete Containing Industrial By-Products

This project developed screening tools that enable evaluation of alternative cementitious binders that create concretes to significantly reduce energy and emissions while remaining cost competitive on both initial and long-term costs. The team began with the viewpoint that acceptance of new cementitious binder products has a substantially greater chance of successful implementation when capital investment is not excessive and the end product has customers that have experience and resources to use this. As such, a binder system that is based on portland cement with blended using industrial by-products (alternative cementitious materials) has the potential for dramatic and meaningful impact. The team has focused on developing implementable solutions in specifications and current practice. This however requires three main factors: 1) ability to screen byproducts and alternative materials for success, 2) ability to ‘treat’ materials chemically to enhance kinetics, and 3) ability to provide predictions of performance of both binders and concrete from first principles. The project developed/refined a state of the art and scientifically based screening test for SCM called the pozzolanic reactivity test. The team developed kinetic models to simulate these materials as well as experimental approaches to alter selected reactions. Simulation tools were developed that enable the performance of concrete to be predicted based on the chemistry and reactivity of the cement and alternative SCM. Specifically, this project: • enhanced the kinetic reactivity models for use in multi-scale computational programs that use thermodynamics to predict reaction products. 2 • developed scaling models to extend thermodynamic modeling to link these models with pore structure. This enables strength, transport property, and coupled transport prediction. • developed tools to predict performance of cementitious materials using the pozzolanic reactivity test and chemical composition. The predicted properties are consistent with AASHTO R101 and the CEB-FIP model code and can be measured using associated test procedures. • demonstrated mechanical and fracture based modeling tools that thermodynamic predictions and inputs to predict concrete service life. These results have been used to demonstrate the value of enabling specifications to include ASTM C 595 cement as well ASTM C150 cement. In addition, these products are being used to expedite the evaluation of alternative SCM to aide in determining which materials have potential value and what ‘compositions’ of blended cements merit further investment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scaling up carboxylic acid production from cheese whey and brewery wastewater via methane-arrested anaerobic digestion

In a circular economy, organic waste streams are valuable resources for sustainably producing chemicals and fuels. This study investigates a new methane-arrested anaerobic digestion (MAAD) process that converts high-strength cheese whey and brewery wastewater into carboxylic acids. The process was developed and optimized under various bench-scale semi-continuous (fed-batch) operating conditions (e.g., retention time, organic loading rate, pH, and feed/harvest frequency). The MAAD responses to various control-failure scenarios were also systematically investigated. The highest total acid productivity was 26g/(L liq ·d) with a substrate conversion of 0.79g COD digested /g COD fed at a hydraulic retention time (HRT) of approximately 2 d in a 14-L digester. The most stable conditions for digester operation (HRT 3 d at pH 6.0 and 40°C) were selected for process scale-up to 100gal (~380 L). Semi-continuous, pilot-scale MAAD successfully produced a total acid concentration of 40.6+/-1.1 g/L with 8.1% acetic acid, 45.1% butyric acid, and 44.5% lactic acid. The links between wastewater characteristics, operation mode, digester scale, and microbial community structure were statistically analyzed. The results show genera Sporolactobacillus and Clostridium positively correlate with butyric acid production (Pearson correlation coefficient>0.5). Moreover, four kinetic models were developed and fit to batch MAAD experimental datasets (R 2 >95%) and were successfully applied to predict the total acid production in both bench-and pilot-scale semi-continuous MAADs. In conclusion, this study shows MAAD has the potential for industrial-scale applications and is a robust platform to valorize low- or negative-value waste streams into high-value bioproducts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2019

Challenges and Opportunities For Ensuring Entry System Technology Readiness For Ice Giants Probe Missions

The Ice Giants represent a distinct class of planets within our solar system, and appear to be similar to most exoplanets that have been detected thus far. Exploring Ice Giants in our Solar System would allow us to better understand their formation and evolution processes, and thus help establish scientific links to exoplanets. In situ exploration using probes similar to Galileo, along with an orbiter or a relay spacecraft, will require entry followed by deployment of the descent probe containing science instruments into Uranus or Neptune atmosphere. The challenge is not in the deployment of the probe, but in the atmospheric entry prior to deployment. The entry system has to have a capable, robust and efficient ablative thermal protection system (TPS) designed to protect the descent probe from the thermal and mechanical entry loads. Although entries into Ice Giants may not be as demanding as the Galileo entry at Jupiter, the entry environments will be more severe than environments for Mars, Sample Return missions, and Venus, and will therefore require robust TPS. While Galileo Probe’s success, nearly 25 years ago, should give us confidence, the recession data from the Galileo entry informs us that the entry environment was under predicted and the design thickness was barely adequate. The lesson learned from Galileo probe for future Ice Giant missions will require us to be cautious and demand a more robust design. The TPS technology used on Galileo entry system no longer exists due to atrophy of manufacturing processes. Instead of attempting to revive Galileo-legacy TPS technology, NASA invested in a new and innovative TPS called HEEET (Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology). HEEET has been matured, and is now ready to support future missions not only to the Ice Giants but also for Venus, high-speed sample return, and Saturn probe missions. This lead talk, intended for the technology section of the workshop, will cover entry, descent, and deployment (EDD), with an emphasis on entry. A brief history of the TPS challenges for extreme entry missions will be given along with a quick overview of the concept of operations for EDD. The development and maturation of HEEET system capability will be described. Data gathered in ground-test facilities in the US will be highlighted to show that the technology is mature and ready for Ice Giant missions. All thermal protection systems carry some risk as a result of ground test limitations and Ice Giant missions present some unique challenges. These challenges are not only technical, but also due to limitations in the currently established manufacturing and integration. In addition, the concerns that arise due to potential for atrophy for future Ice Giant mission a decade or more from now will be analyzed. Plausible avenues for mitigation will be presented. There are two companion planned presentations by Dr. Prabhu and Dr. Hwang will dive deeper in the challenges and opportunities. This intended talk will set the stage for their presentations.

Venkatapathy, Ethiraj↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tendon-Actuated Lightweight In-Space MANipulator (TALISMAN) Hinge Joint Structural Performance

The Tendon Actuated Lightweight In-Space MANipulator (TALISMAN), invented and initially developed under the Space Technology Mission Directorate Human Robotics Systems program, is a tendon-actuated robot that established a new structural architecture for long-reach space manipulators. The TALISMAN is designed to have significant stiffness and strength in the plane of the tendons or cables, and operations are designed such that all primary loads are applied in that same plane. However, during normal operations it is possible for out-of-plane forces to be applied on the TALISMAN when secondary loads are imparted by a tool or action at the wrist. These secondary loading conditions will induce out-of-plane bending loads in the TALISMAN hinge joints. The TALISMAN hinge joints must be designed for these out-of-plane loads, to ensure no failure of the joint occurs during operations. A series hinge joint out-of-plane stiffness tests were conducted at five different joint angles; at three cable pre-loads from 25-lbf to 100-lbf; up to an equivalent out-of-plane tip load of 27.28-lbf at the end of a 51-in. long distal link. The objective of the tests was to provide an initial set of deflection, cable load, and strain data to inform accurate modeling of the hinge joint out-of-plane stiffness. The test objective was achieved by developing an FEM of the hinge joint able to predict tip displacement to within 10% of values measured in tests. The hinge joint FEM may now be implemented into a full-scale analysis model of the TALISMAN V2.0 to provide predictions of out-of-plane displacement under different load and joint angle conditions.

Matthew K Mahlin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predictability of the Minimum Sea Ice Extent from Late Winter Fram Strait Ice Export: Model vs Observations

Late winter coastal divergence along the Eurasian coastline (referred to as the ice factory) – or the Fram Strait ice export, a proxy for coastal divergence in the ice factory – is a skillful predictor of the minimum sea ice extent (Williams et al., 2016; Brunette et al., 2018; Sesternikov and, 1979). Coastal divergence leads to the formation of coastal polynya where new ice grows but to a thickness that is not large enough to survive the following summer melt. This signal is then amplified by the ice albedo feedback and leads to more open water at the end of the summer melt season. In this thesis project, we will identify if this source of predictive skill in the seasonal forecast of the minimum sea ice extent is present in General Circulation Models, more precisely in the CESM2-LE, GISS-E2.1-G, GFDL FLOR-LE, CNRM-CM6-1 and the CanESM5. Since even small biases in the large-scale atmospheric circulation simulated by a model can short circuit this coupling between dominant modes of atmospheric variability (NAO and AO), coastal divergence along the Eurasian coastline, Fram Strait ice export and therefore seasonal forecasting skill of the model, failure to reproduce this coupling observed in the real Arctic will be used to identify biases in GCM. Preliminary results show that subtle changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation leads to opposite statistical relationship between Fram Strait ice area export, coastal divergence along the Eurasian coastline, and seasonal predictability of the minimum sea ice extent both in the CESM2-LE and the GISS-E2.1-G models. Differences are linked with the partitioning between recirculation within the Beaufort Gyre, ice exported through Fram Strait and ridging north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

Sea ice↗

NASA NTRS2010

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 m and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 m.

Xu, Y.-L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version . ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 micron and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 micron.

Xu, Y.-L.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Challenges and Opportunities for Ensuring Entry System Technology Readiness for Ice Giants Probe Missions

The Ice Giants represent a distinct class of planets within our solar system, and appear to be similar to most exoplanets that have been detected thus far. Exploring Ice Giants in our Solar System would allow us to better understand their formation and evolution processes, and thus help establish scientific links to exoplanets. In situ exploration using probes similar to Galileo, along with an orbiter or a relay spacecraft, will require entry followed by deployment of the descent probe containing science instruments into Uranus or Neptune atmosphere. The challenge is not in the deployment of the probe, but in the atmospheric entry prior to deployment. The entry system has to have a capable, robust and efficient ablative thermal protection system (TPS) designed to protect the descent probe from the thermal and mechanical entry loads. Although entries into Ice Giants may not be as demanding as the Galileo entry at Jupiter, the entry environments will be more severe than environments for Mars, Sample Return missions, and Venus, and will therefore require robust TPS. While Galileo Probe’s success, nearly 25 years ago, should give us confidence, the recession data from the Galileo entry informs us that the entry environment was under-predicted and the design thickness was barely adequate. The lesson learned from the Galileo probe for future Ice Giant missions will require us to be cautious and demand a more robust design. The TPS technology used on the Galileo entry system no longer exists due to atrophy of manufacturing processes. Instead of attempting to revive Galileo-legacy TPS technology, NASA invested in a new and innovative TPS called HEEET (Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology). HEEET has been matured, and is now ready to support future missions not only to the Ice Giants but also for Venus, high-speed sample return, and Saturn probe missions. This lead talk, intended for the technology section of the workshop, will cover entry, descent, and deployment (EDD), with an emphasis on entry. A brief history of the TPS challenges for extreme entry missions will be given, along with a quick overview of the concept of operations for EDD. The development and maturation of HEEET system capability will be described. Data gathered in ground-test facilities in the US will be highlighted to show that the technology is mature and ready for Ice Giant missions. All thermal protection systems carry some risk as a result of ground test limitations and Ice Giant missions present some unique challenges. These challenges are not only technical, but also due to limitations in the currently established manufacturing and integration. In addition, the concerns that arise due to the potential for atrophy for future Ice Giant missions a decade or more from now will be analyzed. Plausible avenues for mitigation will be presented. There are two planned companion presentations by Dr. Prabhu and Dr. Hwang that will dive deeper into the challenges and opportunities. This intended talk will set the stage for their presentations.

Venkatapathy, Ethiraj↗

NASA NTRS2018

Evapotranspiration-Based Irrigation Scheduling in Cool-Season Vegetables

Crop evapotranspiration (ETc) is strongly linked with photosynthetically active vegetation fraction (Fc). Estimation of ETc may support efficiency gains in irrigation water management, which in turn can mitigate nitrate leaching, promote water supply sustainability, and reduce energy costs associated with water pumping or transport. The University of California Cooperative Extension operates the CropManage (CM) model as a freely-available web-application for growers and consultants to support irrigation and nitrogen scheduling decisions. CM accounts for the rapid growth and typically brief cycle of cool-season vegetables, where Fc and crop coefficient (fraction of reference ET) can change daily during canopy development. Daily weather conditions are inherently accounted for by use of grass reference ETo data imported from the California Dept. Water Resources. Crop water requirement calculations are output in terms of irrigation system runtime. Empirical equations are used to estimate daily Fc time-series for a given crop type, primarily as a function of planting date and expected harvest. An applications programming interface (API) enables CM to import satellite-based Fc observations from NASA's Satellite Irrigation Management Support, which uses Landsat imagery to monitor about eight million irrigation acres statewide. The API is intended to provide a check on internal CM predictions of Fc and to facilitate expansion of the web-app to new crops and regions. A replicated irrigation trial was performed on cauliflower during spring/summer 2018 at the USDA Agricultural Research Station in Salinas, CA. The crop was established by sprinkler irrigation, and CropManage was then used to guide a series of drip irrigation treatments at 50%, 75%, 100%, and 150% of ETc replacement levels. Results will be presented with respect to water use efficiency, nitrogen use efficiency, biomass yield, and marketable yield. Additional findings will be presented for a celery trial harvested during autumn 2018.

Johnson, Lee↗