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NASA NTRS2018

Mars 2020 Surface Mission Modeling Landing Site Thermal Environments

This paper presents work done by the Mars 2020 Mission Planning Team to characterize landing site thermal environments. A process was developed to take in ground temperature simulation data for each landing site and efficiently discretize it into six thermal environment bins. The Mars 2020 Thermal Team then performed detailed heater and energy modeling in each of those environments. The heater modeling results were implemented into a Monte Carlo based surface mission model to understand mission performance impacts. The Mars 2020 Instrument Teams used the results to inform their design and to better understand how the thermal conditions at each landing site affected their instruments.

Lange, Robert D.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Mars 2020 Surface Mission Modeling Landing Site Thermal Environments

Lange, Robert D.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Mars 2020 Surface Mission Modeling: Landing Site Thermal Environments

This paper presents work done by the Mars 2020 Mission Planning Team to characterize landing site thermal environments. A process was developed to take in ground temperature simulation data for each landing site and efficiently discretize it into a handful of thermal bin environments. The Mars 2020 Thermal Team then performed detailed heater and energy modeling in each of those environments. The heater modeling results were implemented into a Monte Carlo based surface mission model to understand mission performance impacts. The Mars 2020 Instrument Teams used the results to inform their design and to better understand how the thermal conditions at each landing site affected their instruments.

Lange, Robert D.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Coupled Neutron Transport for HZETRN

Exposure estimates inside space vehicles, surface habitats, and high altitude aircrafts exposed to space radiation are highly influenced by secondary neutron production. The deterministic transport code HZETRN has been identified as a reliable and efficient tool for such studies, but improvements to the underlying transport models and numerical methods are still necessary. In this paper, the forward-backward (FB) and directionally coupled forward-backward (DC) neutron transport models are derived, numerical methods for the FB model are reviewed, and a computationally efficient numerical solution is presented for the DC model. Both models are compared to the Monte Carlo codes HETC-HEDS, FLUKA, and MCNPX, and the DC model is shown to agree closely with the Monte Carlo results. Finally, it is found in the development of either model that the decoupling of low energy neutrons from the light particle transport procedure adversely affects low energy light ion fluence spectra and exposure quantities. A first order correction is presented to resolve the problem, and it is shown to be both accurate and efficient.

Slaba, Tony C.↗

NASA NTRS1990

An analysis of CCD images of the coma of Comet Halley

The analysis of selected CCD images of the coma of comet P/Halley is presented. The images were taken using specially designed filters that isolate regions of a comet's spectrum such that only sunlight which has been scattered by the dust in the coma is recorded. The modeling analysis objective is to make use of the skills developed in the development of Monte Carlo particle trajectory models for the distributions of gas species in cometary comae and to use those models as a basis for a new dust coma model. This model will include a self-consistant picture of the time-dependent dusty-gas dynamics of the inner coma and the three-dimensional time-dependent trajectories of the dust particles under the influence of solar gravity and solar radiation pressure in the outer coma. The model is intended to be used as a tool to analyze selected images from the two sets of CCD images with the hope that it will help the understanding of the effects of a number of important processes on the spatial morphology of the observed dust coma. The processes of importance to the observed dust coma include: (1) the dust particle size distribution function; (2) the terminal velocities of various sized dust particles in the inner coma; (3) the radiation scattering properties of dust particles, which are important both in terms of the observe scattered radiation and the radiation pressure acceleration on dust particles; (4) the fragmentation and/or vaporization of dust particles; and (5) the relative importance of CHON and silicate dust particles as they contribute both to the dusty-gasdynamics in the inner coma (that produce the dust particle terminal velocities) and to the observed spatial morphology on the outer dust coma.

Combi, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Use of the Satellite Breakup Risk Assessment Model (SBRAM) to Characterize Collision Risk to Manned Spacecraft

NASA uses environment models such as ORDEM96 to characterize the long-term orbital debris collision hazard for spacecraft in LEO. Occasionally, however, there are breakups of satellites or rocket bodies that create enhanced collision hazard for a period of time. This enhanced collision hazard can pose increased risks to space operations - especially those involving manned missions where the tolerance for risk is very low. NASA has developed SBRAM to simulate the enhanced debris environment in the days and weeks that follow such a breakup. This simulation provides the kind of risk probabilities that can be used by mission planners to consider if changes are warranted for the mission. Announcements of breakups come to NASA from US Space Command as soon as they are identified. The pre-breakup orbit and time of breakup are used to determine the initial conditions of the explosion. SBRAM uses the latest explosion models developed at NASA to simulate a debris cloud for the breakup. The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to create a random debris cloud from the probability distributions in the breakup model. Each piece of debris randomly created in the cloud is propagated in a deterministic manner to include the effects of drag and other orbital perturbations. The detailed geometry of each simulated close approach to the target spacecraft is noted and logged and the collision probability is computed using an estimated probability density in down-range and cross-range positions of both the target spacecraft and debris object. The collision probability is computed from the overlap of these probability densities for each close-approach geometry and summed over all computed conjunctions. Cloud propagation runs over the desired time interval are then repeated until the scale of the collision risk can be estimated to a desired precision. This paper presents an overview of the SBRAM model and a number of examples, both real and hypothetical, to demonstrate its use. In addition, a number of different examples are shown how the data can be used by decision makers on issues such as spacecraft orientation and timing of EVAs.

Matney, Mark J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Interpolative modeling of GaAs FET S-parameter data bases for use in Monte Carlo simulations

A statistical interpolation technique is presented for modeling GaAs FET S-parameter measurements for use in the statistical analysis and design of circuits. This is accomplished by interpolating among the measurements in a GaAs FET S-parameter data base in a statistically valid manner.

Campbell, L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Improving Mars-GRAM: Increasing the Accuracy of Sensitivity Studies at Large Optical Depths

Extensively utilized for numerous mission applications, the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model. In a Monte-Carlo mode, Mars-GRAM's perturbation modeling capability is used to perform high fidelity engineering end-to-end simulations for entry, descent, and landing (EDL). Mars-GRAM has been found to be inexact when used during the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) site selection process for sensitivity studies for MapYear=0 and large optical depth values such as tau=3. Mars-GRAM is based on the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) from the surface to 80 km altitude. Mars-GRAM with the MapYear parameter set to 0 utilizes results from a MGCM run with a fixed value of tau=3 at all locations for the entire year. Imprecise atmospheric density and pressure at all altitudes is a consequence of this use of MGCM with tau=3. Density factor values have been determined for tau=0.3, 1 and 3 as a preliminary fix to this pressure-density problem. These factors adjust the input values of MGCM MapYear 0 pressure and density to achieve a better match of Mars-GRAM MapYear 0 with Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) observations for MapYears 1 and 2 at comparable dust loading. These density factors are fixed values for all latitudes and Ls and are included in Mars-GRAM Release 1.3. Work currently being done, to derive better multipliers by including variations with latitude and/or Ls by comparison of MapYear 0 output directly against TES limb data, will be highlighted in the presentation. The TES limb data utilized in this process has been validated by a comparison study between Mars atmospheric density estimates from Mars-GRAM and measurements by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS). This comparison study was undertaken for locations on Mars of varying latitudes, Ls, and LTST. The more precise density factors will be included in Mars-GRAM 2005 Release 1.4 and thus improve the results of future sensitivity studies done for large optical depths.

Justh, Hilary L.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Shuttle vertical fin flowfield by the direct simulation Monte Carlo method

The flow properties in a model flowfield, simulating the shuttle vertical fin, determined using the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo method. The case analyzed corresponds to an orbit height of 225 km with the freestream velocity vector orthogonal to the fin surface. Contour plots of the flowfield distributions of density, temperature, velocity and flow angle are presented. The results also include mean molecular collision frequency (which reaches 1/60 sec near the surface), collision frequency density (approaches 7 x 10 to the 18/cu m sec at the surface) and the mean free path (19 m at the surface).

Hueser, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Analysis of CCD images of the coma of comet P/Halley

The modeling analysis objective of this project is to make use of the skill acquired in the development of Monte Carlo particle trajectory models for the distributions of gas species in cometary comae as a basis for a new dust coma model. This model will include a self-consistent picture of the time-dependent dusty-gas dynamics of the inner coma and the three-dimensional time-dependent trajectories of the dust particles under the influence of solar gravity and solar radiation pressure in the outer coma. Our purpose is to use this model as a tool to analyze selected images from two sets of data of the comet P/Halley with the hope that we can help to understand the effects of a number of important processes on the spatial morphology of the observed dust coma. The study will proceed much in the same way as our study of the spatially extended hydrogen coma where we were able to understand the spatial morphology of the Lyman-alpha coma in terms of the partial thermalization of the hot H atoms produced by the photodissociation of cometary H2O and OH. The processes of importance to the observed dust coma include: (1) the dust particle size distribution function; (2) the terminal velocities of various sized dust particles in the inner coma; (3) the radiation scattering properties of dust particles, which are important both in terms of the observed scattered radiation and the radiation pressure acceleration on dust particles; (4) the fragmentation and/or vaporization of dust particles; (5) the relative importance of CHON and silicate dust particles as they contribute both to the dusty-gas dynamics in the inner coma (that produce the dust particle terminal velocities) and to the observed spatial morphology of the outer dust coma; and (6) the time and direction dependence of the source of dust.

Combi, Michael R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Sleep Disruption Medical Intervention Forecasting (SDMIF) Module for the Integrated Medical Model

The NASA Integrated Medical Model (IMM) assesses the risk, including likelihood and impact of occurrence, of all credible in-flight medical conditions. Fatigue due to sleep disruption is a condition that could lead to operational errors, potentially resulting in loss of mission or crew. Pharmacological consumables are mitigation strategies used to manage the risks associated with sleep deficits. The likelihood of medical intervention due to sleep disruption was estimated with a well validated sleep model and a Monte Carlo computer simulation in an effort to optimize the quantity of consumables. METHODS: The key components of the model are the mission parameter program, the calculation of sleep intensity and the diagnosis and decision module. The mission parameter program was used to create simulated daily sleep/wake schedules for an ISS increment. The hypothetical schedules included critical events such as dockings and extravehicular activities and included actual sleep time and sleep quality. The schedules were used as inputs to the Sleep, Activity, Fatigue and Task Effectiveness (SAFTE) Model (IBR Inc., Baltimore MD), which calculated sleep intensity. Sleep data from an ISS study was used to relate calculated sleep intensity to the probability of sleep medication use, using a generalized linear model for binomial regression. A human yes/no decision process using a binomial random number was also factored into sleep medication use probability. RESULTS: These probability calculations were repeated 5000 times resulting in an estimate of the most likely amount of sleep aids used during an ISS mission and a 95% confidence interval. CONCLUSIONS: These results were transferred to the parent IMM for further weighting and integration with other medical conditions, to help inform operational decisions. This model is a potential planning tool for ensuring adequate sleep during sleep disrupted periods of a mission.

Lewandowski, Beth↗

NASA NTRS2010

Optimizing Medical Kits for Space Flight

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) uses Monte Carlo methodologies to predict the occurrence of medical events, their mitigation, and the resources required during space flight. The model includes two modules that utilize output from a single model simulation to identify an optimized medical kit for a specified mission scenario. This poster describes two flexible optimization routines built into SAS 9.1. The first routine utilizes a systematic process of elimination to maximize (or minimize) outcomes subject to attribute constraints. The second routine uses a search and mutate approach to minimize medical kit attributes given a set of outcome constraints. There are currently 273 unique resources identified that are used to treat at least one of 83 medical conditions currently in the model.

Minard, Charles G.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Monte Carlo calculation of dynamical properties of the two-dimensional Hubbard model

A new method is introduced for analytically continuing imaginary-time data from quantum Monte Carlo calculations to the real-frequency axis. The method is based on a least-squares-fitting procedure with constraints of positivity and smoothness on the real-frequency quantities. Results are shown for the single-particle spectral-weight function and density of states for the half-filled, two-dimensional Hubbard model.

White, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Monte Carlo predictions of DNA fragment-size distributions for large sizes after HZE particle irradiation

DSBs (double-strand breaks) produced by densely ionizing space radiation are not located randomly in the genome: recent data indicate DSB clustering along chromosomes. DSB clustering at large scales, from >100 Mbp down to approximately 2 kbp, is modeled using a Monte-Carlo algorithm. A random-walk model of chromatin is combined with a track model, that predicts the radial distribution of energy from an ion, and the RLC (randomly-located-clusters) formalism, in software called DNAbreak. This model generalizes the random-breakage model, whose broken-stick fragment-size distribution is applicable to low-LET radiation. DSB induction due to track interaction with the DNA volume depends on the radiation quality parameter Q. This dose-independent parameter depends only weakly on LET. Multi-track, high-dose effects depend on the cluster intensity parameter lambda, proportional to fluence as defined by the RLC formalism. After lambda is determined by a numerical experiment, the model reduces to one adjustable parameter Q. The best numerical fits to the experimental data, determining Q, are obtained. The knowledge of lambda and Q allows us to give biophysically based extrapolations of high-dose DNA fragment-size data to low doses or to high LETs.

NASA Center JSC↗

NASA NTRS1977

Thermal radiation model for solid rocket booster plumes

The Monte Carlo method is used to model the thermal radiation field of the plumes for the dual solid rocket boosters astride the Space Shuttle launch configuration. The model accounts for axial and radial variations in radiative properties of the plumes. The plumes are considered to be composed of a dispersion of aluminum oxide (Al2O3) particles immersed in the gaseous products of combustion. The principal emitting gases are taken to be CO, CO2, H2O, and HCl. The thermal model is based on local thermodynamic equilibrium. Scattering of radiant energy by Al2O3 particles may be treated as isotropic or anisotropic. Sample radiant heating rates to the base region of the Space Shuttle are shown. Space Shuttle geometries are simulated as combinations of quadric surfaces.

Watson, G. H.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Direct simulation Monte Carlo with ionization and radiation

Improvements in the modeling of radiation in low density shock waves with Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) are the subject of this study. The physical processes which determine the amount of radiation in a shock wave were investigated and the way in which they were modeled with DSMC was evaluated. Three physical processes were identified for which an improvement in the modeling technique could result in improved radiation predictions. New physical modeling schemes are introduced in this report for the three processes. First a method for determining the electric field and its effect on the flow is introduced. Second, a two step reaction process for electron impact ionization reactions is evaluated. Finally, a new scheme to determine the relaxation collision numbers for excitation of electronic states is proposed. Each new scheme attempts to move the DSMC method toward more accurate physics or more reliance on experimental data. The new schemes are all compared to the current modeling techniques and the differences in the results are evaluated. In all cases the results agree with the available data as well as, or better than the results from earlier schemes.

Carlson, Ann B.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Mars 2020 Surface Mission Performance Modeling: Part 3. Mission Performance Modeling Approach and Results

We have developed a comprehensive model of the Mars 2020 rover surface mission used to identify and evaluate mission productivity and operability challenges and opportunities. The surface mission performance model combines many aspects of rover design, operations approach, system behaviors, and mission constraints into an integrated model of surface mission performance. The surface mission model applies monte-carlo methodologies in order to investigate the key sources of mission performance variability and their effects with respect to overall mission performance. Our modeling efforts aims to investigate and inform engineering design and development efforts, as well as the landing site selection process led by the Mars science community. We believe that an integrated mission performance model such as this is important to aligning engineering and science efforts across the project.

Ono, Masahiro↗

NASA NTRS1981

A radiometric model of an earth radiation budget radiometer optical system with diffuse-specular surfaces

The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) is to fly on NASA's Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) and on NOAA F and NOAA G. Large spatial scale earth energy budget data will be derived primarily from measurements made by the ERBE nonscanning instrument (ERBE-NS). A description is given of a mathematical model capable of simulating the radiometric response of any of the ERBE-NS earth viewing channels. The model uses a Monte Carlo method to accurately account for directional distributions of emission and reflection from optical surfaces which are neither strictly diffuse nor strictly specular. The model computes radiation exchange factors among optical system components, and determines the distribution in the optical system of energy from an outside source. Attention is also given to an approach for implementing the model and results obtained from the implementation.

Luther, M. R.↗