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At least 307 records · Page 17

Impact of Limited Degree of Freedom Drag Coefficients on a Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Simulation

The worldwide effort to design and commission floating offshore wind turbines (FOWT) is motivating the need for reliable numerical models that adequately represent their physical behavior under realistic sea states. However, properly representing the hydrodynamic quadratic damping for FOWT remains uncertain, because of its dependency on the choice of drag coefficients (dimensionless or not). It is hypothesized that the limited degree of freedom (DoF) drag coefficient formulation that uses only translational drag coefficients causes mischaracterization of the rotational DoF drag, leading to underestimation of FOWT global loads, such as tower base fore-aft shear. To address these hydrodynamic modeling uncertainties, different quadratic drag models implemented in the open-source mid-fidelity simulation tool, OpenFAST, were investigated and compared with the experimental data from the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation (OC5) project. The tower base fore-aft shear and up-wave mooring line tension were compared under an irregular wave loading condition to demonstrate the effects of the different damping models. Two types of hydrodynamic quadratic drag formulations were considered: (1) member-based dimensionless drag coefficients applied only at the translational DoF (namely limited-DoF drag model) and (2) quadratic drag matrix model (in dimensional form). Based on the results, the former consistently underestimated the 95th percentile peak loads and spectral responses when compared to the OC5 experimental data. In contrast, the drag matrix models reduced errors in estimates of the tower base shear peak load by 7–10% compared to the limited-DoF drag model. The underestimation in the tower base fore-aft shear was thus inferred be related to mischaracterization of the rotational pitch drag and the heave motion/drag by the limited-DoF model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation for surface and hub-height wind climatology over North America

Assessing the availability of key wind resources requires augmenting observations to support the implementation of wind energy infrastructure. However, observations are limited, necessitating the development of high-resolution, long-term gridded datasets. This study presents a robust, dynamically downscaled climatological dataset, offering 20 years of hourly wind data at a 4 km spatial resolution across North America, and evaluates its performance against observations, including meteorological towers and automated surface-observing system (ASOS) stations, as well as coarse-resolution reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis version 5 (ERA5)). Results demonstrate that the downscaled high-resolution wind data outperform ERA5 in regions of complex terrain and coastal areas, with improved overlap coefficients for wind data distributions and reduced root mean square errors (RMSEs) for hub-height and near-surface diurnal wind patterns. The downscaled simulation also captures the synoptic drivers of seasonal wind direction patterns reasonably well, indicated by high wind rose similarity indices. This study also provides an analysis of interannual variability, utilizing the dataset's full 20-year period, and model uncertainty, generated by varying model initial conditions and physics parameterizations across 1-year ensemble members, which are key considerations for wind resource assessment in wind farm development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Induction of models under uncertainty

This paper outlines a procedure for performing induction under uncertainty. This procedure uses a probabilistic representation and uses Bayes' theorem to decide between alternative hypotheses (theories). This procedure is illustrated by a robot with no prior world experience performing induction on data it has gathered about the world. The particular inductive problem is the formation of class descriptions both for the tutored and untutored cases. The resulting class definitions are inherently probabilistic and so do not have any sharply defined membership criterion. This robot example raises some fundamental problems about induction; particularly, it is shown that inductively formed theories are not the best way to make predictions. Another difficulty is the need to provide prior probabilities for the set of possible theories. The main criterion for such priors is a pragmatic one aimed at keeping the theory structure as simple as possible, while still reflecting any structure discovered in the data.

Cheeseman, Peter↗

A Study on the Requirements for Fast Active Turbine Tip Clearance Control Systems

This paper addresses the requirements of a control system for active turbine tip clearance control in a generic commercial turbofan engine through design and analysis. The control objective is to articulate the shroud in the high pressure turbine section in order to maintain a certain clearance set point given several possible engine transient events. The system must also exhibit reasonable robustness to modeling uncertainties and reasonable noise rejection properties. Two actuators were chosen to fulfill such a requirement, both of which possess different levels of technological readiness: electrohydraulic servovalves and piezoelectric stacks. Identification of design constraints, desired actuator parameters, and actuator limitations are addressed in depth; all of which are intimately tied with the hardware and controller design process. Analytical demonstrations of the performance and robustness characteristics of the two axisymmetric LQG clearance control systems are presented. Takeoff simulation results show that both actuators are capable of maintaining the clearance within acceptable bounds and demonstrate robustness to parameter uncertainty. The present model-based control strategy was employed to demonstrate the tradeoff between performance, control effort, and robustness and to implement optimal state estimation in a noisy engine environment with intent to eliminate ad hoc methods for designing reliable control systems.

DeCastro, Jonathan A.↗

Model Calibration Efforts for the International Space Station's Solar Array Mast

The International Space Station (ISS) relies on sixteen solar-voltaic blankets to provide electrical power to the station. Each pair of blankets is supported by a deployable boom called the Folding Articulated Square Truss Mast (FAST Mast). At certain ISS attitudes, the solar arrays can be positioned in such a way that shadowing of either one or three longerons causes an unexpected asymmetric thermal loading that if unchecked can exceed the operational stability limits of the mast. Work in this paper documents part of an independent NASA Engineering and Safety Center effort to assess the existing operational limits. Because of the complexity of the system, the problem is being worked using a building-block progression from components (longerons), to units (single or multiple bays), to assembly (full mast). The paper presents results from efforts to calibrate the longeron components. The work includes experimental testing of two types of longerons (straight and tapered), development of Finite Element (FE) models, development of parameter uncertainty models, and the establishment of a calibration and validation process to demonstrate adequacy of the models. Models in the context of this paper refer to both FE model and probabilistic parameter models. Results from model calibration of the straight longerons show that the model is capable of predicting the mean load, axial strain, and bending strain. For validation, parameter values obtained from calibration of straight longerons are used to validate experimental results for the tapered longerons.

Elliott, Kenny B.↗

Uncertainty in Model Predictions of Vibrio Vulnificus Response to Climate Variability and Change: A Chesapeake Bay Case Study

The effect that climate change and variability will have on waterborne bacteria is a topic of increasing concern for coastal ecosystems, including the Chesapeake Bay. Surface water temperature trends in the Bay indicate a warming pattern of roughly 0.3-0.4 C per decade over the past 30 years. It is unclear what impact future warming will have on pathogens currently found in the Bay, including Vibrio spp. Using historical environmental data, combined with three different statistical models of Vibrio vulnificus probability, we explore the relationship between environmental change and predicted Vibrio vulnificus presence in the upper Chesapeake Bay. We find that the predicted response of V. vulnificus probability to high temperatures in the Bay differs systematically between models of differing structure. As existing publicly available datasets are inadequate to determine which model structure is most appropriate, the impact of climatic change on the probability of V. vulnificus presence in the Chesapeake Bay remains uncertain. This result points to the challenge of characterizing climate sensitivity of ecological systems in which data are sparse and only statistical models of ecological sensitivity exist.

model predictions↗

Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Climate impacts↗