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At least 307 records · Page 17

Radicals and Reservoirs in the GMI Chemistry and Transport Model: Comparison to Measurements

We have used a three-dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM), developed under the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI), to carry out two simulations of the composition of the stratosphere under changing halogen loading for 1995 through 2030. The two simulations differ only in that one uses meteorological fields from a general circulation model while the other uses meteorological fields from a data assimilation system. A single year's winds and temperatures are repeated for each 36-year simulation. We compare results from these two simulations with an extensive collection of data from satellite and ground-based measurements for 1993-2000. Comparisons of simulated fields with observations of radical and reservoir species for some of the major ozone-destroying compounds are of similar quality for both simulations. Differences in the upper stratosphere, caused by transport of total reactive nitrogen and methane, impact the balance among the ozone loss processes and the sensitivity of the two simulations to the change in composition.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

Empirical Absolute Calibration Model for Multiple Pseudo-Invariant Calibration Sites

This work extends an empirical absolute calibration model initially developed for the Libya 4 Pseudo-Invariant Calibration Site (PICS) to five additional Saharan Desert PICS (Egypt 1, Libya 1, Niger 1, Niger 2, and Sudan 1), and demonstrates the efficacy of the resulting models at predicting sensor top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance. It attempts to generate absolute calibration models for these PICS that have an accuracy and precision comparable to or better than the current Libya 4 model, with the intent of providing additional opportunities for sensor calibration. In addition, this work attempts to validate the general applicability of the model to other sites. The method uses Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) as the reference radiometer and Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) Hyperion image data to provide a representative hyperspectral reflectance profile of the PICS. Data from a region of interest (ROI) in an “optimal region” of 3% temporal, spatial, and spectral stability within the PICS are used for developing the model. The developed models were used to simulate observations of the Landsat 7 (L7) Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 (L8) Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel 2A (S2A) MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) and Sentinel 2B (S2B) MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) from their respective launch date through 2018. The models developed for the Egypt 1, Libya 1 and Sudan 1 PICS have an estimated accuracy of approximately 3% and precision of approximately 2% for the sensors used in the study, comparable to the current Libya 4 model. The models developed for the Niger 1 and Niger 2 sites are significantly less accurate with similar precision.

Raut, Bipin↗

Ground Motion Models (GMMs) Improvements Using Earthquake Simulations on High Performance Computers

A computationally efficient simulation platform was developed that can provide representative synthetic ground motions from crustal earthquakes in the Stable Continental Regions of Central and Eastern US (CEUS), using 3D modeling and high-performance computing. The main objective was to use synthetic ground motion to provide constrains to refinements of exiting ergodic Ground Motion Models (GMMs), for large magnitude earthquakes and near-fault distances, for which these models are less reliable. Physics-based broadband (0-5Hz) ground motion simulations were used to estimate the near-fault ground motion amplitudes and within event and between-event variabilities associated with fault rupture characteristics. As part of a strategy for selecting a reginal velocity model and validation of developed rupture modeling technique, ground motions from the moment magnitude Mw5.0 November 7, 2016, Cushing Oklahoma, and Mw5.8 September 3, 2016, Pawnee Oklahoma earthquakes were simulated. In our simulations we used a 3D regional velocity model that was based on Saikia’s 1D velocity model. Saikia’s model demonstrated better performance in modelling high frequency regional wave propagation for CEUS region. The proposed 3D model includes lateral variations added to the 1D background model using the stochastic scheme of Pitarka and Mellors. Comparisons of the simulations with recordings of both earthquakes demonstrated the reliability of our deterministic simulation approach while emphasizing the importance of including small-scale variability in the regional velocity model needed to reproduce the observed high-frequency wave scattering effects. As part of validation analysis, comparisons with different GMMs for a Mw6.5 earthquake in the CESUS region resulted in a very good match between the simulated and empirical ground motion models. Initial investigations of within-event and between-event ground motion variabilities for Mw6.5 scenario earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, suggest that they are strongly related to spatial slip and slip rate variations, average rupture velocity, rupture area and rupture initiation location. For certain scenarios we found that the ground motion variability observed at near-fault distances (< 5 km) also persists at longer distances. Regardless of the rupture scenario, the simulated ground motion tends to fully saturate at short distances and for all periods. The near-fault saturation has to do with the attenuation of waves propagating along the fault and local rupture radiation pattern that also contribute to stronger ground motion variation at such distances. Analysis of effects of rupture initiation location suggest that the peak ground motion (PGV) and spectral acceleration (SA) can be quite variable due to rupture directivity effects. Such effects are stronger at periods longer than 1s. The effect of the 1D velocity models and surface topography on simulated ground motion were investigated by comparing three component synthetic seismograms computed at selected sites. Effect of surface topography was considered using the ratio between spectral accelerations simulated for two 1D models with flat surface topography and realistic model with surface topography. Overall, the topography slightly amplifies (by ~30%) the ground motion amplitude in the frequency range 1-3Hz. The effect of topography is more visible in the surface and coda waves portion of the seismograms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Constraining Numerical Geodynamo Modeling with Surface Observations

Numerical dynamo solutions have traditionally been generated entirely by a set of self-consistent differential equations that govern the spatial-temporal variation of the magnetic field, velocity field and other fields related to dynamo processes. In particular, those solutions are obtained with parameters very different from those appropriate for the Earth s core. Geophysical application of the numerical results therefore depends on correct understanding of the differences (errors) between the model outputs and the true states (truth) in the outer core. Part of the truth can be observed at the surface in the form of poloidal magnetic field. To understand these differences, or errors, we generate new initial model state (analysis) by assimilating sequentially the model outputs with the surface geomagnetic observations using an optimal interpolation scheme. The time evolution of the core state is then controlled by our MoSST core dynamics model. The final outputs (forecasts) are then compared with the surface observations as a means to test the success of the assimilation. We use the surface geomagnetic data back to year 1900 for our studies, with 5-year forecast and 20-year analysis periods. We intend to use the result; to understand time variation of the errors with the assimilation sequences, and the impact of the assimilation on other unobservable quantities, such as the toroidal field and the fluid velocity in the core.

Kuang, Weijia↗

Sodium Pumping via Condensation within a Non-Wetting Porous Structure

The transfer of liquid sodium from a low-pressure condenser to a high-pressure evaporator is required to complete the thermodynamic cycle of a sodium thermal electrochemical converter (Na-TEC). A unique capillary pump is explored in this work, whereby low-pressure sodium vapor is condensed within a non-wetting (i.e. contact angle > pi/2) stainless steel porous structure. Due to the curvature of the non-wetting liquid-vapor interface, the liquid adjacent to the interface is at a higher pressure than the vapor. This is in contrast to traditional wicks, where the liquid adjacent to the interface has a lower pressure. Conjugate heat transfer techniques are used to model the coupled momentum and thermal transport processes within this non-wetting porous structure. Due to the low mass flowrates in the Na-TEC (< 0.1 mg/s), higher order friction terms are neglected and the classical Darcy’s law is used for the non-isothermal, compressible vapor flow. At lower temperatures, the sodium vapor density becomes sufficiently small and there is a transition from classic Poiseuille flow (Kn < 0.1) to Knudsen flow (Kn > 10). Furthermore, transport due to binary diffusion is also considered for situations where there is a substantial presence of non-condensable argon in the sodium vapor plenum. Initial modeling results showing expected mass flowrates, temperature profiles, and liquid-vapor interface locations are presented for various physical conditions. The main design features of an experimental set-up used to demonstrate this capillary pumping is also described in detail, including the method used to measure the low sodium mass flowrates. Initial experimental results demonstrating sodium pumping for a range of temperatures (800K – 1100K) will be presented and compared against the model predictions. Finally, several of the challenges with this experiment will be discussed, and specific strategies used to address these are presented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

High Temperature Oxidation Lifetime Modeling of Commercial Wrought NiCr

To increase efficiency, a wide range of energy-related applications is pushing components to higher temperatures where environmental degradation can be life limiting. Unlike mechanical properties such as creep, there is no simple degradation parameter to capture the time-temperature-thickness limitations of candidate alloys. An initial model has been proposed and additional work is in progress to validate the model with longer-term exposures at 900°C and modify the model to capture additional service parameters such as cycle frequency and the effect of water vapor. Additional issues are discussed including the minimum data required for a new alloy to be modeled in the proposed manner.

Pint, Bruce↗

The Effect of Transport and Circulation Differences on Stratospheric Ozone Recovery in Two 35-year Three-dimensional Simulations

The NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) has completed two 35-year simulations with WMO future baseline boundary conditions that simulate increasing N2O and CH4 emissions and decreasing organic chlorine and bromine emissions. Simulations were done with the GMI offline chemistry and transport model using 1) 1 year of winds from the Finite-Volume General Circulation Model (FV-GCM), repeated for the 35 years, and 2) 1 year of winds from the Finite-Volume Data Assimilation System (FV-DAS), repeated for 35-years. The simulations have full stratospheric chemistry. To understand differences in simulated ozone recoveries, basic transport and circulation differences between these models are evaluated. The distribution of mean age of stratospheric air in the FV-GCM run agrees well with observations in the lower stratosphere but the FV-DAS ages are generally too low. This implies circulation and mixing differences that will affect the distributions of other trace species such as CH4, NO, and the organic halogens, all of which are responding to changing boundary conditions and are involved in ozone loss. Realism of model transport is evaluated, with particular attention given to regions and seasons where ozone recovery is expected. Preliminary results indicate increasing ozone trends in the lowermost stratosphere in summer and in the Antarctic and Arctic lower stratosphere in winter and spring.

Bhartia, P. K.↗

Alternate Methods of Model Reduction to Avoid Dynamic Modal Truncation Error

Loads analysis is traditionally performed using dynamically reduced models, which provides the benefit to reduce run time. If the reduced model frequency cutoff is not chosen appropriately, the model will lack the dynamic content required to fully represent the response of the non-reduced model. Standard guidance for reduced model frequency content, provided in NASA-STD-5002, is to solve fixed base modes up to a minimum of 1.5x the model frequency content of interest and to employ static modal truncation methods such as residual vectors, the mode acceleration method, and the residual flexibility method to account for the truncated flexibility of the missing modes. Fixed base modes require the selection of a set of degrees of freedom to be constrained which, if not properly selected, may affect the accuracy of the reduced model by excluding some of the dynamic characteristic of the full model. In this case, the standard NASA guidance would be insufficient, but it may not be readily apparent that a portion of the reduced model response is missing. This error was encountered during an independent verification and validation (IV&V) effort, where it was observed that the resulting dynamic response was lower than the inline analysis. In this specific case, despite following the standard NASA model reduction guidelines in the selection of the frequency cutoff, the inline model still did not fully capture the necessary dynamic content. As part of the IV&V, an alternate reduction methodology was employed using an unconstrained mode acceleration method. The original model initially performed a constrained reduction to twice the frequency content of interest before doing a free-free run, employing the mode acceleration method to account for the truncated modes. In contrast in the IV&V, the unconstrained model reduced directly to the needed frequency content of the free-free run, avoiding any interactions between constraints and dynamic content. To verify the model, the original reduction methodology was used to generate a series of Hurty-Craig-Bampton reductions, each with a higher frequency cutoff than the previous. The results were shown to converge once the frequency cutoff increased past eight times the frequency content of interest. At the same frequency cutoff, the results of the Hurty-Craig-Bampton model converged with the results of the unconstrained mode acceleration model. This comparative study provided confidence that the results of the unconstrained modal acceleration reduced model were correct and that the Hurty-Craig-Bampton needed to increase its frequency cutoff to fully capture the dynamic response.

Erin Simmons↗

Alternate Methods of Model Reduction to Avoid Dynamic Modal Truncation Error

Loads analysis is traditionally performed using dynamically reduced models, which provides the benefit to reduce run time. If the reduced model frequency cutoff is not chosen appropriately, the model will lack the dynamic content required to fully represent the response of the non-reduced model. Standard guidance for reduced model frequency content, provided in NASA-STD-5002, is to solve fixed base modes up to a minimum of 1.5x the model frequency content of interest and to employ static modal truncation methods such as residual vectors, the mode acceleration method, and the residual flexibility method to account for the truncated flexibility of the missing modes. Fixed base modes require the selection of a set of degrees of freedom to be constrained which, if not properly selected, may affect the accuracy of the reduced model by excluding some of the dynamic characteristic of the full model. In this case, the standard NASA guidance would be insufficient, but it may not be readily apparent that a portion of the reduced model response is missing. This error was encountered during an independent verification and validation (IV&V) effort, where it was observed that the resulting dynamic response was lower than the inline analysis. In this specific case, despite following the standard NASA model reduction guidelines in the selection of the frequency cutoff, the inline model still did not fully capture the necessary dynamic content. As part of the IV&V, an alternate reduction methodology was employed using an unconstrained mode acceleration method. The original model initially performed a constrained reduction to twice the frequency content of interest before doing a free-free run, employing the mode acceleration method to account for the truncated modes. In contrast in the IV&V, the unconstrained model reduced directly to the needed frequency content of the free-free run, avoiding any interactions between constraints and dynamic content. To verify the model, the original reduction methodology was used to generate a series of Hurty-Craig-Bampton reductions, each with a higher frequency cutoff than the previous. The results were shown to converge once the frequency cutoff increased past eight times the frequency content of interest. At the same frequency cutoff, the results of the Hurty-Craig-Bampton model converged with the results of the unconstrained mode acceleration model. This comparative study provided confidence that the results of the unconstrained modal acceleration reduced model were correct and that the Hurty-Craig-Bampton needed to increase its frequency cutoff to fully capture the dynamic response.

Erin Simmons↗

Atmospheric Dust Modeling from Meso to Global Scales with the Online NMMB/BSC-Dust Model Part 2: Experimental Campaigns in Northern Africa

The new NMMB/BSC-Dust model is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales. It is an online model in which the dust aerosol dynamics and physics are solved at each model time step. The companion paper (Perez et al., 2011) develops the dust model parameterizations and provides daily to annual evaluations of the model for its global and regional configurations. Modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) was evaluated against AERONET Sun photometers over Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe with correlations around 0.6-0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. In this paper we analyze in detail the behavior of the model using data from the Saharan Mineral dUst experiment (SAMUM-1) in 2006 and the Bodele Dust Experiment (BoDEx) in 2005. AOD from satellites and Sun photometers, vertically resolved extinction coefficients from lidars and particle size distributions at the ground and in the troposphere are used, complemented by wind profile data and surface meteorological measurements. All simulations were performed at the regional scale for the Northern African domain at the expected operational horizontal resolution of 25 km. Model results for SAMUM-1 generally show good agreement with satellite data over the most active Saharan dust sources. The model reproduces the AOD from Sun photometers close to sources and after long-range transport, and the dust size spectra at different height levels. At this resolution, the model is not able to reproduce a large haboob that occurred during the campaign. Some deficiencies are found concerning the vertical dust distribution related to the representation of the mixing height in the atmospheric part of the model. For the BoDEx episode, we found the diurnal temperature cycle to be strongly dependant on the soil moisture, which is underestimated in the NCEP analysis used for model initialization. The low level jet (LLJ) and the dust AOD over the Bodélé are well reproduced. The remaining negative AOD bias (due to underestimated surface wind speeds) can be substantially reduced by decreasing the threshold friction velocity in the model.

photometers↗

Fuel Performance Modeling Plan to Support the Advance Gas Reactor Program

This report documents the current status of the fuel performance modeling initiative to support the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification Program in the development of tristructural-isotropic-coated fuel particles. It includes a brief summary of the codes that have been developed to support tristructural isotropic modeling along with a summary of the behavior of fuel particles during irradiation and the modeling used to capture these effects. In addition, this report identifies further modeling and material property needs for further development based on experience from previously performed AGR experiments. In general, the remaining activities to support fuel performance modeling for the AGR program include continued AGR experiment support for AGR-3/4 and AGR-5/6/7 as well as modeling improvements identified throughout the course of the program. These modeling improvements can be summarized as thermomechanical particle behavior and fission product transport. Additional modeling needs may be identified while processing the data collected during the AGR post-irradiation examination campaign and may lead to further improvements that are not included in this report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Building Initial Dynamic System Models for Digital Twins of the Cryogenic Moderator System at the ORNL Spallation Neutron Source

This work describes the initial development of dynamic system models of the cryogenic moderator system (CMS) of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at ORNL as a part of the ORNL LDRD funded project Building TRANSFORM to Accelerate Digital Twin Applications for Nuclear Systems, LOIS 10563. The goal of the work is to start the dynamic system modeling effort with the end goal of using them for real-time applications as digital twins. The CMS is a cryogenic liquid hydrogen flow loop that provides moderation of the neutrons that are generated by the SNS. For optimal neutron production, the CMS needs to maintain a steady and controlled density of cryogenic hydrogen in the moderator section thus requiring precise temperature and pressure control. Due to the varied time scales and system characteristics, control of the system is complex, and diagnostics are also difficult. Difficulty in accessing the flow loop during operations, limited instrumentation and unknown design details of the equipment combine to make the case for having sophisticated digital twin models of the system. Operationally the CMS also provides a strong use case for digital twins due to the constant need of optimization and for troubleshooting/diagnostics. The large amount of data collected which are freely available for using in building the model and verifying and validating the model also makes it a great candidate for a proof-of-concept for digital twins. The project extends ORNL's capacity of development and implementation of the open-source dynamic system modeling tool TRANSFORM for engineering design and digital twin/real-time applications. Specific system configuration data for the CMS have been gathered and an initial dynamic model was created in the TRANSFORM library using Dymola as the solution platform. Models of increasing complexity are created to demonstrate the need for a multi-layered approach in digital twin modeling depending on the scale and phenomena being focused on. The dynamic modeling is shown to bring the dynamic operational aspects to the design process for systems as well as serve as a digital twin to the hardware and allow for models to be tuned and compared against real time operational data. These aims should help to push forward strategic goals of application of digital twins and increase the impact of ORNL systems modeling capabilities with TRANSFORM/Modelica for various advanced energy systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Simulated wind speed and initial conditions over the WFIP2 region: Cold-front (D01)

The purpose of this work is to assess the sensitivity of the forecast for turbine height wind speed to initial condition (IC) uncertainties over the Columbia River Gorge and Columbia River Basin for two typical weather phenomena: a local thermal gradient induced by a marine air intrusion and passage of a cold front. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model data assimilation system (WRFDA) was used to generate ensemble ICs from the North American Regional Analysis (NARR) for the WRF model initialization. The simulated turbine-height wind speeds were categorized into four types using the self-organizing map (SOM) technique. This work advances understanding of IC uncertainties impacts on wind speed forecasts and locates the high-impact regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Simulated wind speed and initial conditions over the WFIP2 region: Cold-front (D02)

The purpose of this work is to assess the sensitivity of the forecast for turbine height wind speed to initial condition (IC) uncertainties over the Columbia River Gorge and Columbia River Basin for two typical weather phenomena: a local thermal gradient induced by a marine air intrusion and passage of a cold front. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model data assimilation system (WRFDA) was used to generate ensemble ICs from the North American Regional Analysis (NARR) for the WRF model initialization. The simulated turbine-height wind speeds were categorized into four types using the self-organizing map (SOM) technique. This work advances understanding of IC uncertainties impacts on wind speed forecasts and locates the high-impact regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Simulated wind speed and initial conditions over the WFIP2 region: Sea-breeze (D01)

The purpose of this work is to assess the sensitivity of the forecast for turbine height wind speed to initial condition (IC) uncertainties over the Columbia River Gorge and Columbia River Basin for two typical weather phenomena: a local thermal gradient induced by a marine air intrusion and passage of a cold front. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model data assimilation system (WRFDA) was used to generate ensemble ICs from the North American Regional Analysis (NARR) for the WRF model initialization. The simulated turbine-height wind speeds were categorized into four types using the self-organizing map (SOM) technique. This work advances understanding of IC uncertainties impacts on wind speed forecasts and locates the high-impact regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Simulated wind speed and initial conditions over the WFIP2 region: Sea-breeze (D02)

The purpose of this work is to assess the sensitivity of the forecast for turbine height wind speed to initial condition (IC) uncertainties over the Columbia River Gorge and Columbia River Basin for two typical weather phenomena: a local thermal gradient induced by a marine air intrusion and passage of a cold front. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model data assimilation system (WRFDA) was used to generate ensemble ICs from the North American Regional Analysis (NARR) for the WRF model initialization. The simulated turbine-height wind speeds were categorized into four types using the self-organizing map (SOM) technique. This work advances understanding of IC uncertainties impacts on wind speed forecasts and locates the high-impact regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Ab-initio molecular dynamics study of eutectic chloride salt: MgCl2–NaCl–KCl

Ionic liquid materials are viable candidates as a heat transfer fluid (HTF) in a wide range of applications, notably within concentrated solar power (CSP) technology and molten salt reactors (MSRs). For next-generation CSP and MSR technologies that strive for higher power generation efficiency, a HTF with wide liquid phase range and energy storage capabilities is crucial. Studies have shown that eutectic chloride salts exhibit thermal stability at high temperatures, high heat storage capacity, and are less expensive than nitrate and carbonate salts. However, the experimental data needed to fully evaluate the potential of eutectic chloride salts as a HTF contender are scarce and entail large uncertainties. Considering the high cost and potential hazards associated with the experimental methods used to determine the properties of ionic liquids, molecular modeling can be used as a viable alternative resource. In this study, the eutectic ternary chloride salt MgCl 2 –NaCl–KCl is modeled using ab-initio molecular dynamics simulations (AIMDs) in the liquid phase. Using the simulated data, the thermophysical and transport properties of eutectic chloride salt can be calculated: density, viscosity, heat capacity, diffusion coefficient, and ionic conductivity. For an initial model validation, experimental pair-distribution function data were obtained from X-ray total scattering techniques and compared to the theoretical pair-distribution function. Additionally, theoretical viscosity values are compared to experimental viscosity values for a similar system. The results provide a starting foundation for a MgCl 2 –NaCl–KCl model that can be extended to predict other fundamental properties.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗