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At least 307 records · Page 17

A Perspective on Coupled Multiscale Simulation and Validation in Nuclear Materials

The field of nuclear materials encompasses numerous opportunities to address and ultimately solve longstanding industrial problems by improving the fundamental understanding of materials through the integration of experiments with multiscale modeling and high-performance simulation. A particularly noteworthy example is an ongoing study of axial power distortions in a nuclear reactor induced by corrosion deposits, known as CRUD (Chalk River unidentified deposits). We describe how progress is being made toward achieving scientific advances and technological solutions on two fronts. Specifically, the study of thermal conductivity of CRUD phases has augmented missing data as well as revealed new mechanisms. Additionally, the development of a multiscale simulation framework shows potential for the validation of a new capability to predict the power distribution of a reactor, in effect direct evidence of technological impact. The material- and system-level challenges identified in the study of CRUD are similar to other well-known vexing problems in nuclear materials, such as irradiation accelerated corrosion, stress corrosion cracking, and void swelling; they all involve connecting materials science fundamentals at the atomistic- and mesoscales to technology challenges at the macroscale.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Structure Learning and Statistical Estimation in Distribution Networks - Part II

Limited placement of real-time monitoring devices in the distribution grid, recent trends notwithstanding, has prevented the easy implementation of demand-response and other smart grid applications. Part I of this paper discusses the problem of learning the operational structure of the grid from nodal voltage measurements. In this work (Part II), the learning of the operational radial structure is coupled with the problem of estimating nodal consumption statistics and inferring the line parameters in the grid. Based on a Linear-Coupled(LC) approximation of AC power flows equations, polynomial time algorithms are designed to identify the structure and estimate nodal load characteristics and/or line parameters in the grid using the available nodal voltage measurements. Then the structure learning algorithm is extended to cases with missing data, where available observations are limited to a fraction of the grid nodes. The efficacy of the presented algorithms are demonstrated through simulations on several distribution test cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Review of Quantitative Monitoring Methodologies for Emissions Verification and Accounting for Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage for California’s Greenhouse Gas Cap-and-Trade and Low-Carbon Fuel Standard Programs

The Cap-and-Trade and Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) programs being administered by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) include Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) as a potential means to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, there is currently no universal standard approach that quantifies GHG emissions reductions for CCS and that is suitable for the quantitative needs of the Cap-and-Trade and LCFS programs. CCS involves emissions related to the capture (e.g., arising from increased energy needed to separate carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from a flue gas and compress it for transport), transport (e.g., by pipeline), and storage of CO 2 (e.g., due to leakage to the atmosphere from geologic CO 2 storage sites). In this project, we reviewed and compared monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) protocols for CCS from around the world by focusing on protocols specific to the geologic storage part of CCS. In addition to presenting the review of these protocols, we highlight in this report those storage-related MVA protocols that we believe are particularly appropriate for CCS in California. We find that none of the existing protocols is completely appropriate for California, but various elements of all of them could be adopted and/or augmented to develop a rigorous, defensible, and practical surface leakage MVA protocol for California. The key features of a suitable surface leakage MVA plan for California are that it: (1) informs and validates the leakage risk assessment, (2) specifies use of the most effective monitoring strategies while still being flexible enough to accommodate special or site-specific conditions, (3) quantifies stored CO 2 , and (4) offers defensible estimates of uncertainty in monitored properties. California’s surface leakage MVA protocol needs to be applicable to the main CO 2 storage opportunities (in California and in other states with entities participating in California’s Cap-and-Trade or LCFS programs), specifically CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR), CO 2 injection into depleted gas reservoirs (with or without CO 2 -enhanced gas recovery (CO 2 -EGR)), as well as deep saline storage. Regarding the elements of an effective surface leakage MVA protocol, our recommendations for California are that: (1) both CO 2 and methane (CH 4 ) surface leakage should be monitored, especially for enhanced recovery scenarios, (2) emissions from all sources not directly related to injection and geologic storage (e.g., from capture, or pipeline transport) should be monitored and reported under a plan separate from the surface leakage MVA plan that is included as another component of the quantification methodology (QM), (3) the primary objective of the surface leakage MVA plan should be to quantify surface leakage of CO 2 and CH 4 and its uncertainty, with consideration of best-practices and state-of-the-art approaches to monitoring including attribution assessment, (4) effort should be made to monitor CO 2 storage and migration in the subsurface to anticipate future surface leakage monitoring needs, (5) detailed descriptions of specific monitoring technologies and approaches should be provided in the MVA plan, (6) the main purpose of the CO 2 injection project (CO 2 -EOR, CO 2 -EGR, or pure geologic carbon sequestration (GCS)) needs to be stated up front, (7) approaches to dealing with missing data and quantifying uncertainty need to be described, and (8) post-injection monitoring should go on for a period consistent with or longer than that prescribed by the U.S. EPA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Final Report: Quantification of Uncertainty in Extreme Scale Computations (QUEST)

QUEST (\url{www.quest-scidac.org}) is a SciDAC Institute that is focused on uncertainty quantification (UQ) in large-scale scientific computations. Our goals are to (1) advance the state of the art in UQ mathematics, algorithms, and software; and (2) provide modeling, algorithmic, and general UQ expertise, together with software tools, to other SciDAC projects, thereby enabling and guiding a broad range of UQ activities in their respective contexts. QUEST is a collaboration among six institutions (Sandia National Laboratories, Los Alamos National Laboratory, the University of Southern California, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the University of Texas at Austin, and Duke University) with a history of joint UQ research. Our vision encompasses all aspects of UQ in leadership-class computing. This includes the well-founded setup of UQ problems; characterization of the input space given available data/information; local and global sensitivity analysis; adaptive dimensionality and order reduction; forward and inverse propagation of uncertainty; handling of application code failures, missing data, and hardware/software fault tolerance; and model inadequacy, comparison, validation, selection, and averaging. The nature of the UQ problem requires the seamless combination of data, models, and information across this landscape in a manner that provides a self-consistent quantification of requisite uncertainties in predictions from computational models. Accordingly, our UQ methods and tools span an interdisciplinary space across applied math, information theory, and statistics. The MIT QUEST effort centers on statistical inference and methods for surrogate or reduced-order modeling. MIT personnel have been responsible for the development of adaptive sampling methods, methods for approximating computationally intensive models, and software for both forward uncertainty propagation and statistical inverse problems. A key software product of the MIT QUEST effort is the MIT Uncertainty Quantification library, called MUQ (\url{muq.mit.edu}).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Application of NEAMS Multiphysics Framework for Species Tracking in Molten Salt Reactors

This report from Idaho National Laboratory (INL) summarizes the key modeling and simulation activities conducted under the Department of Energy (DOE) Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) Campaign during the Fiscal Year 2023 (FY23). The focus of the work was to leverage state-of-the-art modeling capabilities from the DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) codes to enable novel multiphysics and multiscale modeling and simulation of MSRs. Through collaboration with NEAMS code developers, advanced multiphysics analysis capabilities for MSR systems were demonstrated by coupling depletion, thermal-hydraulics, and thermochemistry into an innovative framework for chemical species transport in MSRs. As a result, the framework can track nuclides throughout their lifetimes in the core, from production (depletion) to advection throughout the salt volume (thermal-hydraulics) and off-gassing or precipitation outside of the salt (thermochemistry). This work supports the near-term deployment of MSRs by integrating the synergistic efforts between the DOE’s MSR Campaign and NEAMS program. The resulting framework will help better connect system design modelers with experimentalists to better understand and predict complex physical behaviors in MSRs. Researchers and MSR developers alike can now leverage these new modeling and simulation capabilities to perform novel analyses with applications including: • MSR dynamics during normal operational transients and accident scenarios • Off-gas system design and performance for fuel cycle and depletion analysis • Corrosion and active chemistry control for reactor component health and lifetime determination • Source term, decay heat and activity determination in accident scenarios • Special nuclear material accountancy and chemical forensic analysis for safeguards • Digital twin development of experiments and experimental reactor demonstrations • Measurement requirements for instrumentation and control design • Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of missing data to inform future experimental data collection.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Developing a Lightning All-Clear Signal for the Savannah River Site

Lightning safety is a major concern at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Notifications are provided when 3-strikes occur onsite within a 15-minute period. It is generally left up to individual contractors at SRS to determine when it is safe for workers to return to outside work, generally following a 3-hour period of no lightning, after the last lightning strike occurs. This work tries to improve safe return to work decisions by developing a reliable all-clear signal using an electric field mill. The best signal used thresholds from multiple electric field values to provide an average delay for return to work of 2 hours and 13 minutes. This average was heavily influenced by lingering storms in the area or missing data from power or network outages. One event out of 98 signaled the all-clear prior to another event occurring less than 60 minutes later. Regardless, 62% of the all clear signals had delay times less than the mean and 72% had delay times less than the current 3-hour delay after the last strike. This provides better worker safety for returning to work than 30 minutes after the last lightning strike (e.g. OSHA Lightning Safety) and improves the delay time from the current 3-hour delay.

Noble, Stephen [Savannah River National Laboratory↗

Bayesian Characterization of Main-sequence Binaries in the Old Open Cluster NGC 188

The binary fractions of open and globular clusters yield powerful constraints on their dynamical state and evolutionary history. We apply publicly available Bayesian analysis tools to a UBV RIJHK {sub S} photometric catalog of the open cluster NGC 188 to detect and characterize photometric binaries along the cluster main sequence. This technique has the advantage of self-consistently handling photometric errors, missing data in various bandpasses, and star-by-star prior constraints on cluster membership. Simulations are used to verify uncertainties and quantify selection biases in our analysis, illustrating that among binaries with mass ratios >0.5, we recover the binary fraction to better than 7% in the mean, with no significant dependence on binary fraction and a mild dependence on assumed mass-ratio distribution. Using our photometric catalog, we recover the majority (65% ± 11%) of spectroscopically identified main-sequence binaries, including eight of the nine with spectroscopically measured mass ratios. Accounting for incompleteness and systematics, we derive a mass-ratio distribution that rises toward lower mass ratios (within our q > 0.5 analysis domain). We observe a raw binary fraction for solar-type main-sequence stars with mass ratios q > 0.5 of 42% ± 4%, independent of the assumed mass-ratio distribution to within its uncertainties, consistent with literature values for old open clusters but significantly higher than the field solar-type binary fraction. We confirm that the binaries identified by our method are more concentrated than single stars, in agreement with previous studies, and we demonstrate that the binary nature of those candidates that remain unidentified spectroscopically is strongly supported by photometry from Gaia DR2.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A New Precision Measurement of the Small-scale Line-of-sight Power Spectrum of the Ly α Forest

We present a new measurement of the Lyα forest power spectrum at 1.8 < z < 3.4 using 74 Keck/HIRES and VLT/UVES high-resolution, high-signal-to-noise-ratio quasar spectra. We developed a custom pipeline to measure the power spectrum and its uncertainty, which fully accounts for finite resolution and noise and corrects for the bias induced by masking missing data, damped Lyα absorption systems, and metal absorption lines. Our measurement results in unprecedented precision on the small-scale modes $k\gt 0.02\,{\rm{s}}\,{\mathrm{km}}^{-1}$, inaccessible to previous SDSS/BOSS analyses. It is well known that these high-k modes are highly sensitive to the thermal state of the intergalactic medium, but contamination by narrow metal lines is a significant concern. We quantify the effect of metals on the small-scale power and find a modest effect on modes with $k\lt 0.1\,{\rm{s}}\,{\mathrm{km}}^{-1}$. As a result, by masking metals and restricting to $k\lt 0.1\,{\rm{s}}\,{\mathrm{km}}^{-1}$, their impact is completely mitigated. We present an end-to-end Bayesian forward-modeling framework whereby mock spectra with the same noise, resolution, and masking as our data are generated from Lyα forest simulations. These mock spectra are used to build a custom emulator, enabling us to interpolate between a sparse grid of models and perform Markov chain Monte Carlo fits. Our results agree well with BOSS on scales $k\lt 0.02\,{\rm{s}}\,{\mathrm{km}}^{-1}$, where the measurements overlap. The combination of the percent-level low-k precision of BOSS with our 5%–15% high-k measurements results in a powerful new data set for precisely constraining the thermal history of the intergalactic medium, cosmological parameters, and the nature of dark matter. Lastly, the power spectra and their covariance matrices are provided as electronic tables.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Systematic errors in Hadamard transform optics

Error sources encountered in Hadamard transform optical instruments are discussed. Such errors are caused by factors including moving masks, incorrect mask alignment, defects in mask fabrication, missing data, drifts in background level, and diffraction. Techniques for error reduction and/or elimination are described for each of the cases considered. It is noted that the errors described occur in singly encoded spectrometers and imagers.

Sloane, N. J. A.↗

On the stellar rotation-activity connection

The relationship between rotation rates and surface activity in late-type dwarf stars is explored in a survey of recent theoretical and observational studies. Current theoretical models of stellar-magnetic-field production and coronal activity are examined, including linear kinematic dynamo theory, nonlinear dynamos using approximations, and full numerical simulations of the MHD equations; and some typical results are presented graphically. The limitations of the modeling procedures and the constraints imposed by the physics are indicated. The statistical techniques used in establishing correlations between various observational parameters are analyzed critically, and the methods developed for quasar luminosity functions by Avni et al. (1980) are used to evaluate the effects of upper detection bounds, incomplete samples, and missing data for the case of rotation and X-ray flux data.

Rosner, R.↗

Structure and evolution of the large scale solar and heliospheric magnetic fields

Structure and evolution of large scale photospheric and coronal magnetic fields in the interval 1976-1983 were studied using observations from the Stanford Solar Observatory and a potential field model. The solar wind in the heliosphere is organized into large regions in which the magnetic field has a componenet either toward or away from the sun. The model predicts the location of the current sheet separating these regions. Near solar minimum, in 1976, the current sheet lay within a few degrees of the solar equator having two extensions north and south of the equator. Soon after minimum the latitudinal extent began to increase. The sheet reached to at least 50 deg from 1978 through 1983. The complex structure near maximum occasionally included multiple current sheets. Large scale structures persist for up to two years during the entire interval. To minimize errors in determining the structure of the heliospheric field particular attention was paid to decreasing the distorting effects of rapid field evolution, finding the optimum source surface radius, determining the correction to the sun's polar field, and handling missing data. The predicted structure agrees with direct interplanetary field measurements taken near the ecliptic and with coronameter and interplanetary scintillation measurements which infer the three dimensional interplanetary magnetic structure. During most of the solar cycle the heliospheric field cannot be adequately described as a dipole.

Hoeksema, J. T.↗

An evidential approach to problem solving when a large number of knowledge systems is available

Some recent problems are no longer formulated in terms of imprecise facts, missing data or inadequate measuring devices. Instead, questions pertaining to knowledge and information itself arise and can be phrased independently of any particular area of knowledge. The problem considered in the present work is how to model a problem solver that is trying to find the answer to some query. The problem solver has access to a large number of knowledge systems that specialize in diverse features. In this context, feature means an indicator of what the possibilities for the answer are. The knowledge systems should not be accessed more than once, in order to have truly independent sources of information. Moreover, these systems are allowed to run in parallel. Since access might be expensive, it is necessary to construct a management policy for accessing these knowledge systems. To help in the access policy, some control knowledge systems are available. Control knowledge systems have knowledge about the performance parameters status of the knowledge systems. In order to carry out the double goal of estimating what units to access and to answer the given query, diverse pieces of evidence must be fused. The Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence is used to pool the knowledge bases.

Dekorvin, Andre↗

Empirical orthogonal function analysis of cloud-containing coastal zone color scanner images of northeastern North American coastal waters

Empirical-orthogonal-function (EOF) analyses were carried out on 36 images of the Mid-Atlantic Bight and the Gulf of Maine, obtained by the CZCS aboard Nimbus 7 for the time period from February 28 through July 9, 1979, with the purpose of determining pigment concentrations in coastal waters. The EOF procedure was modified so as to include images with significant portions of data missing due to cloud obstruction, making it possible to estimate pigment values in areas beneath clouds. The results of image analyses explained observed variances in pigment concentrations and showed a south-to-north pattern corresponding to an April Mid-Atlantic Bight bloom and a June bloom over Nantucket Shoals and Platts Bank.

Eslinger, David L.↗

ECLIPS at LMD: Preliminary results of phase 2

The LMD (Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique) ground-based backscatter lidar station (48 degrees 4 N, 02 degrees 0 E) near Paris was operated daily during the phase 2 of the Experimental Closed Lidar Pilot Study (ECLIPS) from May 22 to June 19, 1991 simultaneously with a radiometric equipment recording the downward short wavelength (SW) and long wavelength (LW) fluxes. A day-by-day summary of the field measurement as a function of universal time (UT) is given. Considering a 5 days week, there are only two days of missing data (05/31 and 06/06) in our record. The nearby meteorological station (10 km away) provides rawindsounding at 00UT and 12UT. During two days, the French airborne lidar LEANDRE was flown over the ground-based station. The airborne equipment looked down while the ground based equipment looked up. The two lidars were operated at 532 nm, and the on-board radiometers were identical to the ones on the ground. The measurements were synchronized with Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHIRR) overpasses as required. We also indicate the Meteosat data corresponding to the period of measurements. Two examples of simultaneous ground-based lidar, pygeometer and pyranometer data are displayed.

Valentin, R.↗

An improved conscan algorithm based on a Kalman filter

Conscan is commonly used by DSN antennas to allow adaptive tracking of a target whose position is not precisely known. This article describes an algorithm that is based on a Kalman filter and is proposed to replace the existing fast Fourier transform based (FFT-based) algorithm for conscan. Advantages of this algorithm include better pointing accuracy, continuous update information, and accommodation of missing data. Additionally, a strategy for adaptive selection of the conscan radius is proposed. The performance of the algorithm is illustrated through computer simulations and compared to the FFT algorithm. The results show that the Kalman filter algorithm is consistently superior.

Eldred, D. B.↗

Reducing Noise in the MSU Daily Lower-Tropospheric Global Temperature Dataset

The daily global-mean values of the lower-tropospheric temperature determined from microwave emissions measured by satellites are examined in terms of their signal, noise, and signal-to-noise ratio. Daily and 30-day average noise estimates are reduced by, almost 50% and 35%, respectively, by analyzing and adjusting (if necessary) for errors due to (1) missing data, (2) residual harmonics of the annual cycle unique to particular satellites, (3) lack of filtering, and (4) spurious trends. After adjustments, the decadal trend of the lower-tropospheric global temperature from January 1979 through February 1994 becomes -0.058 C, or about 0.03 C per decade cooler than previously calculated.

Christy, John R.↗

Reducing Noise in the MSU Daily Lower-Tropospheric Global Temperature Dataset

The daily global-mean values of the lower-tropospheric temperature determined from microwave emissions measured by satellites are examined in terms of their signal, noise, and signal-to-noise ratio. Daily and 30-day average noise estimates are reduced by almost 50% and 35%. respectively, by analyzing and adjusting (if necessary) for errors due to 1) missing data, 2) residual harmonics of the annual cycle unique to particular satellites, 3) lack of filtering, and 4) spurious trends. After adjustments, the decadal trend of the lower-tropospheric global temperature from January 1979 through February 1994 becomes -0.058 C. or about 0.03 C per decade cooler than previously calculated.

Christy, John R.↗

Validation and Improvement of SRTM Performance over Rugged Terrain

We have previously reported work related to basic technique development in phase unwrapping and generation of digital elevation models (DEM). In the final year of this work we have applied our technique work to the improvement of DEM's produced by SRTM. In particular, we have developed a rigorous mathematical algorithm and means to fill in missing data over rough terrain from other data sets. We illustrate this method by using a higher resolution, but globally less accurate, DEM produced by the TOPSAR airborne instrument over the Galapagos Islands to augment the SRTM data set in this area, We combine this data set with SRTM to use each set to fill in holes left over by the other imaging system. The infilling is done by first interpolating each data set using a prediction error filter that reproduces the same statistical characterization as exhibited by the entire data set within the interpolated region. After this procedure is implemented on each data set, the two are combined on a point by point basis with weights that reflect the accuracy of each data point in its original image. In areas that are better covered by SRTM, TOPSAR data are weighted down but still retain TOPSAR statistics. The reverse is true for regions better covered by TOPSAR. The resulting DEM passes statistical tests and appears quite feasible to the eye, but as this DEM is the best available for the region we cannot fully veri@ its accuracy. Spot checks with GPS points show that locally the technique results in a more comprehensive and accurate map than either data set alone.

Zebker, Howard A.↗