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Analysis and modeling of summertime convective cloud and precipitation structure over the southeastern United States

Described is work performed under NASA Grant NAG8-654 for the period 15 March to 15 September 1988. This work entails primarily data analysis and numerical modeling efforts related to the 1986 Satellite Precipitation and Cloud Experiment (SPACE). In the following, the SPACE acronym is used along with the acronym COHMEX, which represents the encompassing Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment. Progress made during the second half of the first year of the study included: (1) installation and testing of the RAMS numerical Modeling system on the Alabama CRAY X-MP/24; (2) a start on the analysis of the mesoscale convection system (MCS) of 13 July 1986 COHMEX case; and (3) a cursory examination of a small MCS that formed over the COHMEX region on 15 July 1986. Details of each of these individual tasks are given.

Knupp, Kevin R.↗

Structure and Growth of the Marine Boundary Layer

LANDSAT visible imagery and a one-dimensional Lagrangian boundary layer model were used to hypothesize the nature and the development of the marine boundary layer during a winter episode of strong seaward cold air advection. Over-water heating and moistening of the cold, dry continental air is estimable from linear relations involving horizontal gradients of the near-surface air temperature and humidity. A line of enhanced convection paralleling the Atlantic U.S. coast from south of New York Bay to the vicinity of Virginia Beach, VA was attributed to stronger convergence at low levels. This feature was characterized as a mesoscale front. With the assistance of a three-dimensional mesoscale boundary layer model, initialized with data obtained from the MASEX, the marine boundary layer can be mapped over the entire Atlantic coastal domain and the evolution of the boundary layer can be studied as a function of different characteristics of important surface level forcings. The effects on boundary layer growth due to the magnitude and pattern of sea surface temperature, to the shape of the coastline, and to atmospheric conditions, such as the orientation of the prevailing wind are examined.

Mccumber, M.↗

Stochastic-Dynamical Modeling of Space Time Rainfall

The focus of this research work is the elucidation of the physical origins of the observed extreme-rainfall variability over tropical oceans. The quantitative results of this work may be used to establish links between deterministic models of the mesoscale and synoptic scale with statistical descriptions of the temporal variability of local tropical oceanic rainfall. In addition, they may be used to quantify the influence of measurement error in large-scale forcing and cloud scale observations on the accuracy of local rainfall variability inferences, important for hydrologic studies. A simple statistical-dynamical model, suitable for use in repetitive Monte Carlo experiments, is formulated as a diagnostic tool for this purpose. Stochastic processes with temporal structure and parameters estimated from observed large-scale data represent large-scale forcing.

Georgankakos, Konstantine P.↗

Distribution of Reynolds stress carried by mesoscale variability in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

Satellite altimeter data collected by the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission were used to investigate turbulent stress resulting from the variability of surface geostrophic currents in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The altimeter measured sea level along the subsatellite track. The variability of the along-track slope of sea level is directly proportional to the variability of surface geostrophic currents in the cross-track direction. Because the grid of crossover points is dense at high latitudes, the satellite data could be used for mapping the temporal and spatial variability of the current. Two and a half years of data were used to compute the statistical structure of the variability. The statistics included the probability distribution functions for each component of the current, the time-lagged autocorrelation functions of the variability, and the Reynolds stress produced by the variability. The results demonstrate that stress is correlated with bathymetry. In some areas the distribution of negative stress indicate that eddies contribute to an acceleration of the mean flow, strengthening the hypothesis that baroclinic instability makes important contributions to strong oceanic currents.

Johnson, Thomas J.↗

High resolution atmospheric and surface variability from combined MAMS and VAS radiances

Measuring of the variation of atmospheric and surface quantities such as moisture and stability at small scales is an important step to monitoring, understanding and forecasting mesoscale processes. For instance, moisture and stability products from the geostationary platform VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) exhibit interesting detail at the meso B (20-200 km) level (Chesters et al., 1986; Smith et al., 1985). However, variations at the meso C scale (2-20 km) and at the lower end of the meso B scale (20-100 km) suffer from the effects of noise. Noise can be greatly reduced by using a high resolution data collection system. The Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS), with its 100-m resolution over a 36km swath, is well suited to provide high resolution mesoscale information about the atmosphere and surface of the earth. A more complete depiction of the atmospheric state at the smaller scales is possible through the combination of the high horizontal resolution MAMS data with the vertical sounding data of the VAS. This paper demonstrates a procedure for combining MAMS and VAS data in a physical retrieval to produce high resolution derived products of precipitable water (PW), lifted index (LI), and skin temperature (TS). The variability of these products is evaluated in a structure function analysis similar to that of Hillger and Vonder Haar (1979). Results for 19 June 1986 from the Cooperative Hunstville Meteorological Experiment (COHMEX) are presented.

Moeller, Christopher C.↗

On the Long-Term Variability of Jupiter's Winds and Brightness as Observed from Hubble

Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 imaging data of Jupiter were combined with wind profiles from Voyager and Cassini data to study long-term variability in Jupiter's winds and cloud brightness. Searches for evidence of wind velocity periodicity yielded a few latitudes with potential variability; the most significant periods were found nearly symmetrically about the equator at 0 deg., 10-12 deg. N, and 14-18 deg. S planetographic latitude. The low to mid-latitude signals have components consistent with the measured stratospheric temperature Quasi-Quadrennial Oscillation (QQO) period of-5 years, while the equatorial signal is approximately seasonal and could be tied to mesoscale wave formation, robustness tests indicate that a constant or continuously varying periodic signal near 4.5 years would appear with high significance in the data periodograms as long as uncertainties or noise in the data are not of greater magnitude. However, the lack of a consistent signal over many latitudes makes it difficult to interpret as a QQO-related change. In addition, further analyses of calibrated 410-nm and 953-nm brightness scans found few corresponding changes in troposphere haze and cloud structure on QQO timescales. However, stratospheric haze reflectance at 255-nm did appear to vary on seasonal timescales, though the data do not have enough temporal coverage or photometric accuracy to be conclusive. Sufficient temporal coverage and spacing, as well as data quality, are critical to this type of search.

Simon-Miller, Amy A.↗

Scientific goals of the Cooperative Multiscale Experiment (CME)

Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) form the focus of CME. Recent developments in global climate models, the urgent need to improve the representation of the physics of convection, radiation, the boundary layer, and orography, and the surge of interest in coupling hydrologic, chemistry, and atmospheric models of various scales, have emphasized the need for a broad interdisciplinary and multi-scale approach to understanding and predicting MCS's and their interactions with processes at other scales. The role of mesoscale systems in the large-scale atmospheric circulation, the representation of organized convection and other mesoscale flux sources in terms of bulk properties, and the mutually consistent treatment of water vapor, clouds, radiation, and precipitation, are all key scientific issues concerning which CME will seek to increase understanding. The manner in which convective, mesoscale, and larger scale processes interact to produce and organize MCS's, the moisture cycling properties of MCS's, and the use of coupled cloud/mesoscale models to better understand these processes, are also major objectives of CME. Particular emphasis will be placed on the multi-scale role of MCS's in the hydrological cycle and in the production and transport of chemical trace constituents. The scientific goals of the CME consist of the following: understand how the large and small scales of motion influence the location, structure, intensity, and life cycles of MCS's; understand processes and conditions that determine the relative roles of balanced (slow manifold) and unbalanced (fast manifold) circulations in the dynamics of MCS's throughout their life cycles; assess the predictability of MCS's and improve the quantitative forecasting of precipitation and severe weather events; quantify the upscale feedback of MCS's to the large-scale environment and determine interrelationships between MCS occurrence and variations in the large-scale flow and surface forcing; provide a data base for initialization and verification of coupled regional, mesoscale/hydrologic, mesoscale/chemistry, and prototype mesoscale/cloud-resolving models for prediction of severe weather, ceilings, and visibility; provide a data base for initialization and validation of cloud-resolving models, and for assisting in the fabrication, calibration, and testing of cloud and MCS parameterization schemes; and provide a data base for validation of four dimensional data assimilation schemes and algorithms for retrieving cloud and state parameters from remote sensing instrumentation.

Cotton, William↗

The Arctic tropopause fold

Analyses of research-aircraft observations, satellite total-columnar-ozone retrievals, and synoptic upper-air soundings are used to describe the structure of Arctic jetstreams and their associated frontal zones and tropopause folds. These analyses document the presence of major tropopause folding events within the Arctic that occur at the flanks of large-scale (about 2000 km) polar vortices. One example shows a solar vortex and its associated tropopause fold and Arctic front that migrated from the high Canadian Arctic southward into midlatitudes over central North America. Total columnar ozone measurements from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer are shown to identify the location of polar vortices and the mesoscale (about 200 km) ozone gradients at the flanks of these vortices, which coincide with regions of Arctic tropopause folding and associated stratospheric-tropospheric exchange processes.

Shapiro, M. A.↗

Combining New Satellite Tools and Models to Examine Role of Mesoscale Interactions in Formation and Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

The objective of this research is to start filling the mesoscale gap to improve understanding and probability forecasts of formation and intensity variations of tropical cyclones. Sampling by aircraft equipped to measure mesoscale processes is expensive, thus confined in place and time. Hence we turn to satellite products. This paper reports preliminary results of a tropical cyclone genesis and early intensification study. We explore the role of mesoscale processes using a combination of products from TRMM, QuikSCAT, AMSU, also SSM/I, geosynchronous and model output. Major emphasis is on the role of merging mesoscale vortices. These initially form in midlevel stratiform cloud. When they form in regions of lowered Rossby radius of deformation (strong background vorticity) the mesoscale vortices can last long enough to interact and merge, with the weaker vortex losing vorticity to the stronger, which can then extend down to the surface. In an earlier cyclongenesis case (Oliver 1993) off Australia, intense deep convection occurred when the stronger vortex reached the surface; this vortex became the storm center while the weaker vortex was sheared out as the major rainband. In our study of Atlantic tropical cyclones originating from African waves, we use QuikSCAT to examine surface winds in the African monsoon trough and in the vortices which move westward off the coast, which may or may not undergo genesis (defined by NHC as reaching TD, or tropical depression, with a west wind to the south of the surface low). We use AMSU mainly to examine development of warm cores. TRMM passive microwave TMI is used with SSM/I to look at the rain structure, which often indicates eye formation, and to look at the ice scattering signatures of deep convection. The TRMM precipitation radar, PR, when available, gives precipitation cross sections. So far we have detailed studies of two African-origin cyclones, one which became severe hurricane Floyd 1999, and the other reached TD2 in June 2000 and then died out. The atmosphere off West African is dry and stable. It becomes less so between June and September, as the SST and convection heat up. QuikSCAT shows the African monsoon trough and shear zone extend westward over the ocean to nearly 30 degrees West. The evidence is strong that the two cyclones had in common multiple midlevel mergers, which extended to the surface keeping the surface vortex strong. These continued until both systems were designated TD's by NHC. In the June 2000 case, the main reason for failure was the lower SST and dry, stable atmosphere. This is shown by the comparison of the equivalent potential temperature maps and profiles with those from pre-Floyd. In the vortex which became Floyd, QuikSCAT shows continuous importation of high theta e (warm, moist) air from the south. From September 2-8, this air flowed around the vortex center, building up a high theta-e pool to the north. Then late on September 9, a 100-km wide jet of high theta-e air penetrated the vortex core, a major convective burst' was observed, and an intensifying, more elevated warm core was seen on AMSU. Rapid pressure fall and wind intensification were underway by 0000 UTC on September 10. Floyd became a Hurricane at 1200 UTC on Sept 10, 1999, with successive convective bursts running the hurricane thermodynamic engine by intensifying the warm core. TD2 was a strong African vortex, sustained by moderate convection (up to about 12.5 km) offshore of Africa. It peaked on June 23, showing an apparent "eye" on passive microwave composites. However, it could not assemble the ingredients for a convective burst. Thus it failed to get the thermodynamic hurricane engine going before it moved too far west of the region of lowered Rossby radius. By June 26, cloud systems were dying out. On June 25, a surface vortex was no longer seen on QuikSCAT, although one continued above the surface on model profiles until June 27. One of our main findings so far is showing the role of the mesoscale vortex interactions in sustaining some African vortices far out in to the mid Atlantic, where under adequate thermal/moisture conditions the hurricane heat engine can sometimes be started. We are working on similar studies of Cindy and Irene 1999. Cindy illustrates a case of wind shear working against an early-stage hurricane heat engine, while Irene formed from a Caribbean wave. An enormous value of combinations of satellite tools is that tropical cyclones can be studied in all parts of the global oceans where they occur. Detailed studies like ours are labor intensive but many statistical studies can be based on physical postulates developed. There are other new tools such as MODIS on TERRA of the Earth Observing System (EOS) which can be used to study the microphysics of tropical cyclones world wide, in particular to investigate the presence of mixed phase and the impact of atmospheric aerosols on the hydrometeor structure and rainfall from tropical cyclones.

Simpson, Joanne↗

Sensitivity of High-Resolution Simulations of Hurricane Bob (1991) to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations

The MM5 mesoscale model is used to simulate Hurricane Bob (1991) using grids nested to high resolution (4 km). Tests are conducted to determine the sensitivity of the simulation to the available planetary boundary layer parameterizations, including the bulk-aerodynamic, Blackadar, Medium-RanGe Forecast (MRF) model, and Burk-Thompson boundary-layer schemes. Significant sensitivity is seen, with minimum central pressures varying by up to 17 mb. The Burk-Thompson and bulk-aerodynamic boundary-layer schemes produced the strongest storms while the MRF scheme produced the weakest storm. Precipitation structure of the simulated hurricanes also varied substantially with the boundary layer parameterizations. Diagnostics of boundary-layer variables indicated that the intensity of the simulated hurricanes generally increased as the ratio of the surface exchange coefficients for heat and momentum, C(sub h)/C(sub M), although the manner in which the vertical mixing takes place was also important. Findings specific to the boundary-layer schemes include: 1) the MRF scheme produces mixing that is too deep and causes drying of the lower boundary layer in the inner-core region of the hurricane; 2) the bulk-aerodynamic scheme produces mixing that is probably too shallow, but results in a strong hurricane because of a large value of C(sub h)/C(sub M) (approximately 1.3); 3) the MRF and Blackadar schemes are weak partly because of smaller surface moisture fluxes that result in a reduced value of C(sub h)/C(sub M) (approximately 0.7); 4) the Burk-Thompson scheme produces a strong storm with C(sub h)/C(sub M) approximately 1; and 5) the formulation of the wind-speed dependence of the surface roughness parameter, z(sub 0), is important for getting appropriate values of the surface exchange coefficients in hurricanes based upon current estimates of these parameters.

Braun, Scott A.↗

Evaluation and Application of Satellite-Based Latent Heating Profile Estimation Methods

In recent years, methods for estimating atmospheric latent heating vertical structure from both passive and active microwave remote sensing have matured to the point where quantitative evaluation of these methods is the next logical step. Two approaches for heating algorithm evaluation are proposed: First, application of heating algorithms to synthetic data, based upon cloud-resolving model simulations, can be used to test the internal consistency of heating estimates in the absence of systematic errors in physical assumptions. Second, comparisons of satellite-retrieved vertical heating structures to independent ground-based estimates, such as rawinsonde-derived analyses of heating, provide an additional test. The two approaches are complementary, since systematic errors in heating indicated by the second approach may be confirmed by the first. A passive microwave and combined passive/active microwave heating retrieval algorithm are evaluated using the described approaches. In general, the passive microwave algorithm heating profile estimates are subject to biases due to the limited vertical heating structure information contained in the passive microwave observations. These biases may be partly overcome by including more environment-specific a priori information into the algorithm s database of candidate solution profiles. The combined passive/active microwave algorithm utilizes the much higher-resolution vertical structure information provided by spaceborne radar data to produce less biased estimates; however, the global spatio-temporal sampling by spaceborne radar is limited. In the present study, the passive/active microwave algorithm is used to construct a more physically-consistent and environment-specific set of candidate solution profiles for the passive microwave algorithm and to help evaluate errors in the passive algorithm s heating estimates. Although satellite estimates of latent heating are based upon instantaneous, footprint- scale data, suppression of random errors requires averaging to at least half-degree resolution. Analysis of mesoscale and larger space-time scale phenomena based upon passive and passive/active microwave heating estimates from TRMM, SSMI, and AMSR data will be presented at the conference.

Olson, William S.↗

Low-level atmospheric flows studied by pulsed Doppler lidar

A pulsed Doppler radar gains a tremendous advantage in studying atmospheric flows when it has the ability to scan. The Wave Propagation Laboratory (WPL) has been operating a scanning, 10.59 micron CO2 system for over 10 years. Recently, the WPL lidar has been a featured instrument in several investigations of mesoscale wind fields in the lowest 3-4 km of the atmosphere. These include four experiments: a study of the initiation and growth of the sea breeze off the coast of California, a study of the snake column of a prescribed forest fire, a study of the nighttime flow over the complex terrain near Rocky Flats, Colorado as it affects the dispersion of atmospheric contaminants, and a study of the wind flow in the Grand Canyon. We have analyzed much data from these experiments, and we have found that the lidar provides new insight into the structure of these flows. Many of these studies took place in rugged or mountainous terrain, thus using one of the major benefits of the lidar: the narrow, 90 microrad beam of the lidar makes it an ideal instrument for studying flow close to topography.

Banta, Robert M.↗

Numerical simulations of a transverse indirect circulation and low-level jet in the exit region of an upper-level jet

A numerical study was performed of a severe weather event (tornado) which occurred on May 10, 1973 in the Ohio region. The situation was modeled with a primitive equation mesoscale dynamic formulation. Account was taken of precipitation, the planetary boundary layer parameters as bulk quantities, the vertical pressure gradient, and lateral boundary conditions based on radiosonde data. Two 12-hr simulations, adiabatic and nondivergent, respectively, were analyzed for relationships between upper and lower level jets. In the adiabatic formulation, a transverse circulation with a low level jet formed at the exit region of the upper level jet. The nondivergent situation led to similar, but weaker, phenomena. Both forms suggest that indirect circulation in the exit zone of an upper level jet is strongly influenced by the initial structure of the jet.

Brill, K. F.↗

Polarimetric and Multi-Doppler Radar Observations of Sprite-producing Storms

Sprites are caused by luminous electrical breakdown of the upper atmosphere, and frequently occur over large mesoscale precipitation systems. Two sprite‐producing storms (on 8 and 25 June) were observed in Colorado during the summer of 2012. Unlike most past studies of sprites, these storms were observed by a polarimetric radar ‐ the CSU‐CHILL facility ‐ which provided both PPI and RHI scans of the cases. Also available were multiple‐Doppler syntheses from CSU‐CHILL, local NEXRAD radars, and the CSU‐Pawnee radar; as well as data from the Colorado Lightning Mapping Array (COLMA), high speed cameras, and other lightning‐detection instrumentation. This unique dataset provided an unprecedented look at the detailed kinematic and microphysical structures of the thunderstorms as they produced sprites, including electrical alignment signatures in the immediate location of the charge layers neutralized by sprite‐parent positive cloud‐to‐ground lightning strokes. One of the sprite‐producing cases (25 June) featured an anomalous charge structure and may serve as a model for how sprites can be produced over convection rather than the more typical stratiform regions. Also to be presented will be evidence for advection of charge into a common stratiform precipitation region (on 8 June), which was then tapped by lightning originating from multiple different convective cores to produce sprites. Depending on the outcome of the 2013 convective season, polarimetric data from additional storms that produce sprites and other transient luminous events (TLEs) may be presented.

Lang, TImothy J.↗

Feedback between ice flow, barotropic flow, and baroclinic flow in the presence of bottom topography

Coupling between externally driven barotropic flow and locally driven baroclinic flow in the presence of an ice cover and topography is studied. The topography is a necessary ingredient in this coupling. This study shows that the observed mesoscale activity of the ice edge seen in satellite imagery does not necessarily reflect the mesoscale baroclinic activity in the ocean. Besides oceanic eddies, the ice cover can trace the topographic changes via the coupling to the barotropic flow. A two-layer ocean model coupled to an ice model is constructed to simulate an ice-ocean system with a varying bottom topography. In the absence of wind, forcing the ice cover reflects the externally driven barotropic ocean response, especially topographically forced Taylor columns by forming ice streamers or meanders. Some of these features propagate (advected with the ocean currents) as a whole downstream, creating an image of eddy propagation even though there is no baroclinic structure underneath. When downwelling favorable winds (ice on the left from the wind direction) are turned on, in addition to this background barotropic flow, the Ekman flow in the ocean (toward the open ocean) will enhance the meandering of the ice edge due to the barotropic flow. During upwelling favorable winds, the ice edge stays rather compact, including the case when a strong baroclinic, cyclonic vortex is developing beneath an ice meander supported by the Taylor column in the ocean.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗

The New Horizons Mission to Pluto and Flyby of Jupiter

New Horizons (NH) is NASA's mission to provide the first in situ reconnaissance of Pluto and its moons Charon, Nix, and Hydra. The NH spacecraft will reach Pluto in July 2015 and will then, if approved for an extended mission phase, continue on to a flyby encounter with one or more Kuiper belt objects (KBOs). NH was launched on 19 January 2006 and received a gravity assist during a flyby encounter with Jupiter (with closest approach at -32 RJ on 28 February 2007) that reduced its flight time to Pluto by 3 years. During the Jupiter flyby, NH collected a trove of multi-wavelength imaging and fields-and-particles measurements. Among the many science results at Jupiter were a detection of planet-wide mesoscale waves, eruptions of atmospheric ammonia clouds, unprecedented views of Io's volcanic plumes and Jupiter's tenuous ring system, a first close-up of the Little Red Spot (LRS), first sightings of polar lightning, and a trip down the tail of the magnetosphere. In 2015, NH will conduct a seven-month investigation of the Pluto system culminating in a closest approach some 12,500 km from Pluto's surface. Planning is presently underway for the Pluto encounter with special emphasis on longidentified science goals of studying the terrain, geology, and composition of the surfaces of Pluto and Charon, examining the composition and structure of Pluto's atmosphere, searching for an atmosphere on Charon, and characterizing Pluto's ionosphere and solar wind interaction. Detailed inspections will also be performed of the newly discovered satellites Nix and Hydra. Additionally, NH will characterize energetic particles in Pluto's environment, refine the bulk properties of Pluto and Charon, and search for additional satellites and rings.

Stern, Alan↗

Vertical Profiles of Latent Heat Release Over the Global Tropics using TRMM Rainfall Products from December 1997 to November 2001

NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2000. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DJF 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs west Pacific, Africa vs S. America) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in stratiform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMEX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM-LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Vertical Profiles of Latent Heat Release over the Global Tropics using TRMM rainfall products from December 1997 to November 2001

NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2001. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DE 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs. west Pacific, Africa vs. S. America) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in strtaiform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMEX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM-LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model.

Tao, W.-K.↗