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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Ab initio modeling of transport and thermodynamic stability for hafnia memristive devices

HfO 2 -based memristive switching devices are currently under intensive investigation due to their high performance and mature fabrication techniques. However, several critical issues have to be addressed to bring them from lab to market. We have recently looked into two important issues with the use of density functional theory methods. One is the wide distribution of device resistance in off-states. We have modeled the switching process of a Pt-HfO 2 -Pt structure for which quantized conductance was observed. Oxygen atoms moving inside a conductive oxygen vacancy filament divide the filament into several quantum wells. Device conductance changes exponentially when one oxygen atom moves away from interface into filament. We propose that the high sensitivity of device conductance to the position of oxygen atoms results in the large variation of device off-state resistance. Another issue that we have recently addressed is the poor switching performance of devices based on a TiN-HfO 2 -TiN structure. While recent experiments have shown that by inserting an "oxygen scavenger" metal between positive electrode and oxide significantly improves device performance, the fundamental understanding of the improvement is lacking.We provide detailed understanding how scavenger layers improve device performance. First, we show that Ta insertion facilitates formation of on-states by reducing the formation energy. Second, the inserted Ta layer reduces the Schottky barrier height in the off-states by changing interface electric dipole at the oxide electrode interface. Nevertheless, the device maintains a high on/off resistance ratio. Finally, with Ta insertion the on-state conductance becomes much less sensitive to the specific location from which the oxygen was removed from the oxide. In conclusion, our studies provide fundamental understanding needed for enabling realization of a non-volatile memory technology with reduced energy consumption.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

WISE-CASING: Containment and Monitoring Institute (CaMI), Calgary, Canada FEM-DC Model

For the model calculation we applied EM3D using completion diagram of CaMI site and a background resistivity consistent with the borehole logs. It was also important to use the accurate position of the return electrode. We note that for the data fit the code also incorporated well casings for well INJ and the other observation well, either OB1 or OB2, in the calculation. In summary, we demonstrate here, for this particular case, that the DC results may be a reasonable approximation to the low frequency EM data collected at CaMI. If this approximation continues to hold, then the extreme computational efficiency offered by the hierarchical modeling used in the DC simulations will permit us to explore far more model complexity, especially the pervasive and troublesome data artifacts that arise when doing EM surveys in mature, culturally developed sites. In Brief, both the low frequency and DC simulation codes provided very consistent results that match the field data really well, indicating their capability to help monitoring borehole integrity with the low frequency EM method.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Perennial rhizomatous grasses as bioenergy feedstock in SWAT: parameter development and model improvement

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is increasingly used to quantify hydrologic and water quality impacts of bioenergy production, but crop-growth parameters for candidate perennial rhizomatous grasses (PRG) Miscanthus × giganteus and upland ecotypes of Panicum virgatum (switchgrass) are limited by the availability of field data. Crop-growth parameter ranges and suggested values were developed in this study using agronomic and weather data collected at the Purdue University Water Quality Field Station in northwestern Indiana. During the process of parameterization, the comparison of measured data with conceptual representation of PRG growth in the model led to three changes in the SWAT 2009 code: the harvest algorithm was modified to maintain belowground biomass over winter, plant respiration was extended via modified-DLAI to better reflect maturity and leaf senescence, and nutrient uptake algorithms were revised to respond to temperature, water, and nutrient stress. Parameter values and changes to the model resulted in simulated biomass yield and leaf area index consistent with reported values for the region. Code changes in the SWAT model improved nutrient storage during dormancy period and nitrogen and phosphorus uptake by both switchgrass and Miscanthus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The JmjC-domain protein NO66/RIOX-1 affects the balance between proliferation and maturation in acute myeloid leukemia

Highlights: • NO66/RIOX1 is not expressed in the AML cell line KG1a regarded as a “stem cell-like” model system. • NO66/RIOX1 is not expressed in primary HSC-enriched CD34{sup +}/CD38{sup -} cells of healthy donors. • Ectopic expression of NO66/RIOX1 in KG1a cells inhibits proliferation and rDNA transcription. • NO66/RIOX1 impacts on the transition from stem cells to progenitors by regulation of gene expression. As epigenetic regulators are frequently dysregulated in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) we determined expression levels of the JmjC-protein NO66 in AML cell lines and sub fractions of healthy human hematopoietic cells. NO66 is absent in the AML cell lines KG1/KG1a which consist of cells with the immature CD34{sup +}/CD38{sup -} phenotype and is regarded as a “stem cell-like” model system. Similarly, NO66 is not detectable in CD34{sup +}/CD38{sup -} cells purified from healthy donors but is clearly expressed in the more committed CD34{sup +}/CD38{sup +} cell population. Loss of NO66 expression in KG1/KG1a cells is due to hyper-methylation of its promoter and is released by DNA-methyltransferase inhibitors. In KG1a cells stably expressing exogenous wild type (KG1a66wt) or enzymatically inactive mutant (KG1a66mut) NO66, respectively, the wild type protein inhibited proliferation and rDNA transcription. Gene expression profiling revealed that the expression of NO66 induces a transcriptional program enriched for genes with roles in proliferation and maturation (e.g.EPDR1, FCER1A, CD247, MYCN, SNORD13). Genes important for the maintenance of stem cell properties are downregulated (e.g. SIRPA, Lin28B, JAML). Our results indicate that NO66 induces lineage commitment towards myeloid progenitor cell fate and suggest that NO66 contributes to loss of stem cell properties.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Application of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling to Predict Acetaminophen Metabolism and Pharmacokinetics in Children

Acetaminophen (APAP) is a widely used analgesic and antipyretic drug that undergoes extensive phase I and II metabolism. To better understand the kinetics of this process and to characterize the dynamic changes in metabolism and pharmacokinetics (PK) between children and adults, we developed a physiologically based PK (PBPK) model for APAP integrating in silico, in vitro, and in vivo PK data into a single model. The model was developed and qualified for adults and subsequently expanded for application in children by accounting for maturational changes from birth. Once developed and qualified, it was able to predict clinical PK data in neonates (0–28 days), infants (29 days to <2 years), children (2 to <12 years), and adolescents (12–17 years) following intravenous and orally administered APAP. This approach represents a general strategy for projecting drug exposure in children, in the absence of pediatric PK information, using previous drug- and system-specific information of adults and children through PBPK modeling.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Elastic thermobarometry on metapelites across the crustal section of the Famatinian Arc, Argentina

We applied elastic thermobarometry on garnet-bearing migmatites along two transects through the crustal section at Sierra Valle Fértil-La Huerta, Argentina. We performed quartz-in-garnet barometry and zircon-in-garnet thermometry on metapelites from different paleo-depths across the crustal section. Our work recovers entrapment pressures ranging from 240 to 1330 MPa and entrapment temperatures between 691 and 1574 °C. The entrapment conditions are broadly consistent with anticipated pressures and temperatures along the crustal section derived previously using conventional, thermodynamic thermobarometers. The quartz-in-garnet barometer reproduces those conventionally established entrapment conditions when samples only experienced conditions within the alpha-quartz stability field. Raman-derived pressures for samples that experienced beta-quartz reference conditions are commonly much higher than those established by conventional barometry. Samples that preserve compressive (positive) residual pressures best reproduce reference entrapment pressures. Entrapment temperatures show high variability and overestimation of temperature conditions compared to conventional results. These results indicate elastic thermobarometry over- or under-estimates crystallization conditions in rocks crystallized at high temperatures, as is common in the Famatinian Arc deep-crust. We suggest that modeling quartz behavior across the alpha–beta transition may present challenges, as does shape maturation, viscous deformation, and radiation damage in zircon.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

Generalized equation of state for cold superfluid neutron stars

Mature neutron stars are expected to contain various kinds of superfluids in their interiors. Modeling such stars requires the knowledge of the mutual entrainment couplings between the different condensates. We present a unified equation of state describing the different regions of a neutron star with superfluid neutrons and superconducting protons in its core.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Biomass market dynamics supporting the large‐scale deployment of high‐octane fuel production in the United States

Abstract US Department of Energy research aimed at co‐optimizing fuels and engine performance identified several bioblendstocks that can improve fuel economy including an aromatic‐rich hydrocarbon derived from woody biomass. This work supports an analysis of its large‐scale deployment implying a production target of approximately 15 billion liters of bioblendstock for the supply of 57 billion liters of high‐octane fuel by 2050. It simulates potential transition pathways to lignocellulosic feedstock market structures capable of supplying a mature biorefining industry at this scale. In the present absence of biorefineries, transitions are modeled via nonbiofuel feedstock markets, so‐called companion markets. The resource distribution across several demand industries is simulated to determine biomass availability and price dynamics over time. Results indicate that the wood supply base is mainly influenced by traditional markets including housing and pulp and paper. The selected companion market of wood pellet combustion for heat and electricity generation is found to positively stimulate biomass mobilization, especially in the initial absence of biorefineries. Eventually, biorefineries are found to be able to out‐compete the companion market. As such, they directly benefit from the processing (i.e., pelleting) capacity established to produce commodity‐type intermediates for the companion market. We conclude that the amount of bioblendstock produced is directly related to the size of the companion market (and its pelleting capacity). An initially larger companion market generates up to 20 million dry tonnes of additional feedstock, equivalent to 27 commercial‐scale biorefineries, or an additional production of 5 billion liters by 2050. Distinguishing between industry‐specific feedstock preferences based on average biomass quality characteristics, this analysis goes beyond past research efforts that assume automatic fungibility across different feedstocks. Improving engine performance is a key driver for the promotion of low‐carbon fuels derived from bioblendstocks. This analysis portrays feedstock market transition pathways for their large‐scale deployment.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2019

The flagella of ‘ Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’ and its movement in planta

Summary Citrus huanglongbing (HLB) is the most devastating citrus disease worldwide. ‘ Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’ (Las) is the most prevalent HLB causal agent that is yet to be cultured. Here, we analysed the flagellar genes of Las and Rhizobiaceae and observed two characteristics unique to the flagellar proteins of Las: (i) a shorter primary structure of the rod capping protein FlgJ than other Rhizobiaceae bacteria and (ii) Las contains only one flagellin‐encoding gene flaA (CLIBASIA_02090), whereas other Rhizobiaceae species carry at least three flagellin‐encoding genes. Only flgJ Atu but not flgJ Las restored the swimming motility of Agrobacterium tumefaciens flgJ mutant. Pull‐down assays demonstrated that FlgJ Las interacts with FlgB but not with FliE. Ectopic expression of flaA Las in A. tumefaciens mutants restored the swimming motility of ∆ flaA mutant and ∆ flaAD mutant, but not that of the null mutant ∆ flaABCD . No flagellum was observed for Las in citrus and dodder. The expression of flagellar genes was higher in psyllids than in planta . In addition, western blotting using flagellin‐specific antibody indicates that Las expresses flagellin protein in psyllids, but not in planta . The flagellar features of Las in planta suggest that Las movement in the phloem is not mediated by flagella. We also characterized the movement of Las after psyllid transmission into young flush. Our data support a model that Las remains inside young flush after psyllid transmission and before the flush matures. The delayed movement of Las out of young flush after psyllid transmission provides opportunities for targeted treatment of young flush for HLB control.

Andrade, Maxuel O.↗
DOE OSTI2022

In-Situ Spatial Mapping of Hydrogen in Yttrium Hydrides at LANSCE

This report summarizes the neutron imaging techniques and experimental activities performed at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) with the main goal of measuring temperature driven hydrogen diffusion within bulk-yttrium hydride (YH x ) materials. The experimental results and technique developments reported herein support the US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s (DOE-NE) Microreactor Program under Technology Maturation. In particular, the critical need to experimentally validate and verify hydrogen-diffusion models of metal hydrides used in hightemperature microreactor designs is addressed by means of high-spatial-resolution neutron imaging coupled with custom-built and application-specific furnaces. These capabilities were designed to apply large temperature gradients across centimeter-sized YH x pellets to simulate conditions faced in the microreactor environment. Neutron imaging, combined with in-situ sample heating, enables near real-time tracking of hydrogen diffusion in YH x on the sub-millimeter scale. In this report, an overview of neutron imaging methodology and technologies are given in the context of recent spatial measures of hydrogen concentrations in similar metals hydrides. Additionally, the commissioning and operation of a custom-built compact dual-zone furnace is given along with details on the first two in-situ heating measurements of YH x performed over the 2020 and 2021 LANSCE operation cycles. In parallel with in-situ heating measurements, neutron computed tomography scans were performed to visualize hydrogen aggregates in post-heated YH x samples. Analysis and results from these neutron imaging measurements are given along with outlooks and plans for improving future hydrogen diffusion measurements at LANSCE.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2016

Modeling of drug-mediated CYP3A4 induction by using human iPS cell-derived enterocyte-like cells

Many drugs have potential to induce the expression of drug-metabolizing enzymes, particularly cytochrome P450 3A4 (CYP3A4), in small intestinal enterocytes. Therefore, a model that can accurately evaluate drug-mediated CYP3A4 induction is urgently needed. In this study, we overlaid Matrigel on the human induced pluripotent stem cells-derived enterocyte-like cells (hiPS-ELCs) to generate the mature hiPS-ELCs that could be applied to drug-mediated CYP3A4 induction test. By overlaying Matrigel in the maturation process of enterocyte-like cells, the gene expression levels of intestinal markers (VILLIN, sucrase-isomaltase, intestine-specific homeobox, caudal type homeobox 2, and intestinal fatty acid-binding protein) were enhanced suggesting that the enterocyte-like cells were maturated by Matrigel overlay. The percentage of VILLIN-positive cells in the hiPS-ELCs found to be approximately 55.6%. To examine the CYP3A4 induction potential, the hiPS-ELCs were treated with various drugs. Treatment with dexamethasone, phenobarbital, rifampicin, or 1α,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 resulted in 5.8-fold, 13.4-fold, 9.8-fold, or 95.0-fold induction of CYP3A4 expression relative to that in the untreated controls, respectively. These results suggest that our hiPS-ELCs would be a useful model for CYP3A4 induction test. - Highlights: • The hiPS-ELCs were matured by Matrigel overlay. • The hiPS-ELCs expressed intestinal nuclear receptors, such as PXR, GR and VDR. • The hiPS-ELC is a useful model for the drug-mediated CYP3A4 induction test.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Biophysical study of human induced Pluripotent Stem Cell-Derived cardiomyocyte structural maturation during long-term culture

Highlights: • hiPSC-CM structural maturation was quantified at multiple stages during 120 days. • User friendly custom-written software platform to quantify sarcomere length. • hiPSC-CMs with significant growth in cardiac fiber density and sarcomere length. • Peak of 40% multinucleated hiPSC-CMs observed at day 90. • CM content in microtissues matured to 22%, similar to adult left ventricle tissues. Human induced Pluripotent Stem Cell-derived cardiomyocytes (hiPSC-CMs) have an enormous potential for the development of drug screening and modeling cardiac disease platforms. However, early hiPSC-CMs usually exhibit low structural development, precluding the applicability of these cells. Here, we follow during 120 days the progressive structural maturation of hiPSC-CM microtissues obtained using the Wnt signaling modulation protocol. For this purpose, we designed a user friendly custom-written program to quantify cardiac fiber alignment and sarcomere length. Cardiomyocyte shape, cardiac fiber density and multinucleation were also analyzed. Derived cardiomyocytes showed significant progression in cardiomyocyte fiber density and sarcomere length during the long-term culture, with a peak at day 90 of 40% multinucleated cells. In addition, cardiomyocyte microtissues remained functional with progressive maturation leading to a decrease in the percentage of cTnT positive cells from 59% to 22% at day 120, a value similar to the content present in tissues of the adult left ventricle. These data and the framework that we provide to quantify cardiomyocyte structural features can be important to set new metrics to develop applications for drug screening and disease modeling.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The background model of the CUPID-Mo $0\nu\beta\beta$ experiment

CUPID-Mo, located in the Laboratoire Souterrain de Modane (France), was a demonstrator for the next generation 0vββ decay experiment, CUPID. It consisted of an array of 20 enriched Li 2 100 MoO 4 bolometers and 20 Ge light detectors and has demonstrated that the technology of scintillating bolometers with particle identification capabilities is mature. Furthermore, CUPID-Mo can inform and validate the background prediction for CUPID. In this paper, we present a detailed model of the CUPID-Mo backgrounds. This model is able to describe well the features of the experimental data and enables studies of the 2vββ decay and other processes with high precision. We also measure the radio-purity of the Li 2 100 MoO 4 crystals which are found to be sufficient for the CUPID goals. Finally, we also obtain a background index in the region of interest of 3.7 $^{+0.9}_{-0.8}$ (stat) $^{+1.5}_{-0.7}$ (syst) x 10 -3 counts/ ΔE FWHM / mol iso / year the lowest in a bolometric Ovββ decay experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model-based, in-situ, non-destructive qualification and certification of parts made by autonomous additive manufacturing

To address the significant productivity challenges associated with the qualification and certification (Q&C) tasks of additively manufactured (AM) parts, which have traditionally relied on rigorous post‐build inspection and testing, we propose an integrated framework that combines model‐based qualification and certification (MBQ&C) with autonomous additive manufacturing (AAM). MBQ&C employs high‐fidelity predictive models, developed within the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) paradigm, to simulate process–structure–property–performance relationships for assessing a part’s fitness for use. Since predictive models are commonly machine learning (ML)-based or reduced-order surrogates of validated physics models, they run efficiently, enabling timely inference. In parallel, the self-driving AAM utilises ML-based adaptive, closed‐loop control strategies to avoid, mitigate, or repair defects and anomalies during fabrication, thereby increasing the likelihood of producing acceptable parts. A key feature of the combined AAM-MBQ&C framework is that predictive models explicitly incorporate defects or anomalies that persist after the build, using instance-specific data captured via in-situ sensing. This customisation enables a build‐specific assessment of fitness for use, rather than relying on nominal or generic parameters. Such individualised evaluation provides a robust basis for Q&C-related acceptance decisions relating to each build. Additionally, the rapid solution capabilities of ML or reduced-order models enable the determination of a part’s suitability for service shortly after build completion. As the framework matures, it has the potential to substantially reduce reliance on conventional point‐design approaches—such as time‐consuming post‐build computed tomography scanning and costly destructive testing. Thus, the AAM-MBQ&C framework represents a transformative, scalable strategy for quality assurance of AM components, as parts produced within a stable, validated, and certified envelope can be certified with reduced testing. Key benefits include: (1) significant gains in Q&C productivity through efficient, model-centric assessment; (2) performance-based classification of defects into critical and non-critical categories; (3) the ability to predict potential deviations in the performance of parts affected by real-time, adaptive process control interventions relative to those produced under a certified process, and (4) the enabling of virtual Q&C for service environments that are difficult, hazardous, or impractical to access or reproduce experimentally. Collectively, these capabilities strengthen the business case for AM, particularly for high‐consequence and mission‐critical applications. Finally, although this work focuses on powder-based AM, the proposed techniques could be extended to AM processes employing alternative feedstock forms.

Gunasegaram, Dayalan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Computational studies of impurity migration during induction stirring of molten uranium

Understanding and controlling impurity behavior in actinide metal casting processes are foundational for efficient part production yet remain major challenges for researchers and industry. To help provide insight regarding impurity distribution during actinide metal casting, we have developed computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for a laboratory-scale system using commercial and open-source code. Multiple simulation frameworks allow for improved confidence in the resulting outputs, while taking advantage of the maturity and convenience offered by commercial platforms and simultaneously maintaining the transparency and flexibility often provided by open-source software. Here, we describe multiple experiment-informed models designed to simulate a specific laboratory system in which uranium melt, containing a known starting concentration of carbon impurity, is electromagnetically stirred in an induction furnace. Here, the goal of the simulations is to predict the motion of uranium carbide microparticles in the velocity field of the melt. Prior to simulating the uranium-carbon system, numerical models were validated using a previously published nonradioactive experimental system. Effects of the size and shape of impurity particles in the models were investigated and agree with experimental findings. Simulation of smaller particles (< 50 µm) shows more homogenous distribution throughout the stirred melt. With increased particle size (100 µm), the body forces, which include the buoyancy force, dominate over the drag force, causing larger particles to move toward the crucible walls and upward in the system.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Proliferated Resilient Economical Half-Meter Aperture Space Telescopes (PREEMPT)

The PREEMPT LDRD was motivated by a major national need for better space-based imaging systems that are both high performing and affordable for the US Government. Current optical payloads for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and space domain awareness (SDA) missions can cost hundreds of millions of dollars and take years to develop, which makes it difficult to build the large constellations required for persistent, world-wide coverage. To address this, the team aimed to advance a different kind of large-aperture (>25 cm) telescope, called a monolithic telescope, in which key optical surfaces are built into a single piece of fused silica. This design greatly reduces payload and spacecraft complexity, the need for precision focus actuators, improves mechanical and thermal robustness, and lowers cost when compared with traditional Cassegrain telescopes that rely on many precisely aligned components. The project focused on five primary thrusts. The first thrust was to advance the concept of a V10, 25 cm, monolithic telescope forward from optical design to flight-ready stage. This was accomplished in partnership with Optimax, who delivered the first test unit in the early stages of the LDRD. The team developed several technologies necessary for this optic to be integrated into a flight demonstration. These include carbon fiber housings, highly detailed structural and thermal models and stress-reducing elastic averaging Hirth groove designs. These technologies resulted in a successful maturation of the optic, which is now slated to fly in late 2026/early 2027 for a demonstration mission. The second thrust was to advance the manufacturability of these optics. In collaboration with NIF’s optical manufacturing shop, we reduced polishing time from 480 hours to 65 hours through the implementation of optimized processes and new tools. The NIF team utilized a conceptual V8 (18 cm) optic to demonstrate this optimization, though it can be applied to the rest of the monolithic optic portfolio. Third, the team developed the first conceptual V20 (50 cm) payload, which is slated to be the next generation of LLNL optical payload systems. A set of structural, dynamic and thermal simulations were performed to identify potential challenges in the future development of this payload. Early-stage simulations suggest the payload is feasible, though thermal management will be the key focus area to maintain optimal performance. Fourth, a non-linear model of Viton was developed, to further enhance the reliability of our structural and dynamic models for future payloads. Viton acts as the primary interface material between the optic and its housing. Lastly, the team focused on successfully displaying the feasibility of using additively manufactured metal composites for optical space payloads. The team successfully demonstrated layer by layer deposition of Al-SiC composites, which have highly tunable structural and coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) properties. These are crucial for optical payloads because CTE mismatch is one of the causes for degraded optical performance for telescopes in orbit. Overall, the work showed that monolithic telescopes could become a practical, lower-cost path to high-resolution space imaging for both national security and scientific missions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

US alternative jet fuel deployment scenario analyses identifying key drivers and geospatial patterns for the first billion gallons ,

The aviation sector's commitments to carbon-neutral growth in international aviation starting in 2020, and the desire to improve supply surety, price stability, and the environmental performance of aviation fuels, have led to broad interest in sustainable alternative jet fuels. Here, we use the system-dynamics-based biomass scenario model (BSM), focused on alternative jet fuel production capacity evolution, and the geospatially explicit Freight and Fuel Transportation Optimization Tool (FTOT), focused on optimal feedstock and fuel flows over the transportation system, to explore the incentive effects on alternative jet fuel production capacity trajectories and potential geospatial patterns of production and delivery in the USA. Scenarios presented here focus on readily available waste feedstocks (waste fats, oils and greases, municipal solid waste, and crop and forestry residues) and conversion technologies included in the ASTM D7566 synthesized aviation turbine fuels specification. The BSM modeling of possible deployment trajectories from 2015 to 2045 suggests that up to 8 billion gallons may be available by 2045 depending on the policies and incentives implemented. Both approaches suggest that 200 million to 1 billion gallons per year of alternative jet fuel production are possible in 2030 given multiple incentives and a favorable investment climate, and that capital costs and technology maturation rates will affect deployment of different fuel production technologies, and therefore the feedstocks needed. Further collaboration on these modeling approaches would reduce methodological blind spots while providing insights into future industry trajectories.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗