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At least 307 records · Page 17

MAGIC: M arching Cubes Isosurface Uncertainty Visualization for G auss i an Uncertain Data With Spatial C orrelation

Here, in this paper, we study the propagation of data uncertainty through the marching cubes algorithm for isosurface visualization for correlated uncertain data. Consideration of correlation has been shown paramount for avoiding errors in uncertainty quantification and visualization in multiple prior studies. Although the problem of isosurface uncertainty with spatial data correlation has been previously addressed, there are two major limitations to prior treatments. First, there are no analytical formulations for uncertainty quantification of isosurfaces when the data uncertainty is characterized by a Gaussian distribution with spatial correlation. Second, as a consequence of the lack of analytical formulations,existing techniques resort to a Monte Carlo sampling approach, which is expensive and difficult to integrate into visualization tools. To address these limitations, we present a closed-form framework to efficiently derive uncertainty in marching cubes level-sets for Gaussian uncertain data with spatial correlation (MAGIC). To derive closed-form solutions, we leverage the Hinkley's derivation on the ratio of Gaussian distributions. With our analytical framework, we achieve a significant speed-up and enhanced accuracy of uncertainty quantification over classical Monte Carlo methods. We further accelerate our analytical solutions using many-core processors to achieve speed-ups up to 585× and integrability with production visualization tools for broader impact. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our correlation-aware uncertainty framework through experiments on meteorology, urban flow, and astrophysics simulation datasets.

Gaussian↗

Integration of Control Methods and Digital Twins for Advanced Nuclear Reactors

Advanced nuclear reactors offer a new set of features to energy generation, due to their ability to adapt to variable energy demand, operate autonomously, be deployed in rural locations and monitored remotely, afford compact size and lower power ratings, and rely on novel technologies to achieve safer operations. Thus, a requirement for the success of these reactors is the use of intelligent forms of control to track changing power demands, make autonomous decisions, and reduce the need for human involvement. Regulatory requirements pertaining to control of nuclear reactors could be met via historical means of control; however, these are not expected to enable the level of highly autonomous operations desired in advanced nuclear reactors. Historical control methods rely on both logical and high-performance (HP) control. These two types of control are usually used separately, with a human element being introduced whenever decisions are cascaded from one science to another. AI/ML control, on the other hand, can replace the human element in the current U.S. fleet of nuclear power plants (NPPs) by acting as a supervisory optimizer that understands the plant internal/external variables in order to make control decisions, and can easily handle non-linear and multi-input/multi out (MIMO) decisions—another requirement for advanced nuclear reactors that could be difficult to handle via logical and HP control. Because of the harsh operating environments produced in advanced reactors, resulting in the frequent failure of sensors and other types of equipment, and considering the lack of operating history for advanced nuclear reactors, control of advanced nuclear reactors would necessitate relying on a model that can track and adapt to the actual process (i.e., a digital twin). This digital twin can make approximations when knowledge and data are unavailable and would evolve as more knowledge is gained. The reactor control must also be risk-informed to account for the high-consequence nature of advanced reactors. This report introduces a high-level (i.e., not method- or process-specific) integration of the three different control and digital twinning methods able to meet the requirements for advanced nuclear reactors. These methods could be applied during both the operational and design stages of these reactors. The aim is to demonstrate how each method interfaces with and highlights enabling solutions necessitated by the unique features of advanced nuclear reactors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

Abstract Socio‐economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors. Here, traditional Monte Carlo analysis is paired with scenario discovery techniques to provide a richer portrait of these complexities. Modeled uncertain input variables include costs of advanced energy technologies, energy efficiency trends, fossil fuel resource availability, elasticities of substitution for labor, capital, and energy across economic sectors, population growth, and labor and capital productivity. The sampled values are simulated through a multi‐sector, multi‐region, recursively dynamic model of the world economy to explore a range of possible future outcomes. We find that many patterns of energy and technology development are possible for various long‐term environmental pathways and that sectoral output for most sectors is little affected through 2050 by the long‐term temperature target, but with tight constraints on emissions, emission intensities must fall much more rapidly. Scenario discovery techniques are applied to the large uncertainty ensembles to explore if there are prevailing storylines behind outcomes of interest. An illustrative investigation focused on different levels of economic growth shows many combinations of pathways and no single storyline emerging for a given economic outcome. This method can be extended to other outcomes of interest, exploring the nature of scenarios with both tail and median outcomes. Sampling from a Monte Carlo generated ensemble provides a rich set of scenarios to investigate, and potentially aids in avoiding heuristic biases in less structured scenario approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Distributed, Intelligent Edge-Sensing for a Smarter Grid

The electric grid is undergoing major transformations and developments resulting in unprecedented levels of volatility, uncertainty, and stress on grid infrastructure. Smart sensors and methods aiding in advanced visibility and situational awareness are key for tackling these issues. In this work, a decentralized architecture is proposed, where sensing, local computation and control capability are embedded in the edge devices, communicating with a set of trusted 'data mules' in a 'delay-tolerant' manner, while functioning autonomously. This system has been designed and implemented as an overall platform – called Global Asset Monitoring, Management and Analytics (GAMMA) Platform intended to provide the backbone for a global array of sensors and actuators. Further, as a building block for advanced current sensing solutions, a smart, low-cost ‘clip-on’ current sensor based on PCB-embedded Rogowski coil has been developed. The sensor hosts a novel signal conditioning stage allowing an 'auto-tuning' feature, resulting in a universal current sensor design for measuring a wide range of currents, including faults for smart grid applications. Finally, the research proposes a method to instrument and monitor key parameters for the most common electric utility asset – the pole-top distribution transformer. The work done in this research enables scalable, edge-intelligent sensing solutions for monitoring grid infrastructure, allowing utility operators to gain advanced visibility in an economical way.

Kulkarni, Shreyas Bhalchandra↗

Spectroscopic and theoretical studies of UN and UN +

The low-energy electronic states of UN and UN+ have been examined using high-level electronic structure calculations and two-color photoionization techniques. The experimental measurements provided an accurate ionization energy for UN (IE = 50 802 +/- 5 cm -1 ). Spectra for UN+ yielded ro-vibrational constants and established that the ground state has the electronic angular momentum projection omega = 4. Ab initio calculations were carried out using the spin-orbit state interacting approach with the complete active space second-order perturbation theory method. A series of correlation consistent basis sets were used in conjunction with small-core relativistic pseudopotentials on U to extrapolate to the complete basis set limits. The results for UN correctly obtained an omega = 3.5 ground state and demonstrated a high density of configurationally related excited states with closely similar ro-vibrational constants. Similar results were obtained for UN + , with reduced complexity owing to the smaller number of outer-shell electrons. The calculated IE for UN was in excellent agreement with the measured value. Improved values for the dissociation energies of UN and UN + , as well as their heats of formation, were obtained using the Feller-Peterson-Dixon composite thermochemistry method, including corrections up through coupled cluster singles, doubles, triples and quadruples. An analysis of the ab initio results from the perspective of the ligand field theory shows that the patterns of electronic states for both UN and UN + can be understood in terms of the underlying energy level structure of the atomic metal ion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Niobium coaxial cavities with internal quality factors exceeding 1.4 × 10 9 for circuit quantum electrodynamics

Group-V materials such as niobium and tantalum have become popular choices for extending the performance of circuit quantum electrodynamics (cQED) platforms, allowing for quantum processors and memories with reduced error rates and more modes. The complex surface chemistry of niobium, however, makes identifying the main modes of decoherence difficult at millikelvin temperatures and single-photon powers. We use niobium coaxial quarter-wave cavities to study the impact of etch chemistry, prolonged atmospheric exposure, and the significance of cavity conditions prior to and during cooldown—in particular, niobium hydride evolution—on single-photon coherence. We demonstrate cavities with quality factors Q int ≳ 1.4 × 10 9 in the single-photon regime, a 15-fold improvement over aluminum cavities of the same geometry. We rigorously quantify the sensitivity of our fabrication process to various loss mechanisms and demonstrate a two- to fourfold reduction in the two-level system loss tangent and a three- to fivefold improvement in the residual resistance over traditional buffered chemical polishing etching techniques. Finally, we demonstrate transmon integration and coherent cavity control while maintaining a cavity coherence of 11.3 ms. The accessibility of our method, which can be easily replicated in academic laboratory settings, together with the demonstration of its performance, mark an advancement in three-dimensional cQED.

Oriani, Andrew E. [Chicago U., EFI; Chicago U.] (O↗

A new database of building-space-specific internal loads and load schedules for performance based code compliance modeling of commercial buildings

Building-level loads and load profiles prescribed by current modeling rules save modelers time and avoid gaming during whole building performance modeling. However, recent studies show that they sometimes insufficiently capture the entire building performance due to the varied loads and load profiles for different space types. As a solution to this issue, this paper develops a database of building-space-specific loads and load profiles used in code compliance modeling. The existing sets of loads and load profiles are reviewed and the challenges behind using them for specific research topics are discussed. Then, the proposed method to develop the building-space-specific loads and load profiles is introduced. After that, the database for these building-space-specific loads and load profiles is presented. In addition, one case is studied to demonstrate the applications of these loads and load profiles. In this case study, three methods are used to develop building energy models: space-specific (using knowledge of the distribution and location of space types and applying the space-specific data in the developed database), building-level (assuming a lack of knowledge of the space types and using the building-level data in the developed database), and calculated-ratio (assuming knowledge of the distribution of space types but not their locations and calculating weighted average values based on the space-specific data in the developed database). Finally, the energy results simulated by using these three methods are compared, which show building-level methods can produce energy results up to 20% different than the space-specific methods. Finally, this paper discusses the application scope and maintenance of this new database.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An empirical approach to model selection: weak lensing and intrinsic alignments

ABSTRACT In cosmology, we routinely choose between models to describe our data, and can incur biases due to insufficient models or lose constraining power with overly complex models. In this paper, we propose an empirical approach to model selection that explicitly balances parameter bias against model complexity. Our method uses synthetic data to calibrate the relation between bias and the χ2 difference between models. This allows us to interpret χ2 values obtained from real data (even if catalogues are blinded) and choose a model accordingly. We apply our method to the problem of intrinsic alignments – one of the most significant weak lensing systematics, and a major contributor to the error budget in modern lensing surveys. Specifically, we consider the example of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3), and compare the commonly used non-linear alignment (NLA) and tidal alignment and tidal torque (TATT) models. The models are calibrated against bias in the Ωm–S8 plane. Once noise is accounted for, we find that it is possible to set a threshold Δχ2 that guarantees an analysis using NLA is unbiased at some specified level Nσ and confidence level. By contrast, we find that theoretically defined thresholds (based on, e.g. p-values for χ2) tend to be overly optimistic, and do not reliably rule out cosmological biases up to ∼1–2σ. Considering the real DES Y3 cosmic shear results, based on the reported difference in χ2 from NLA and TATT analyses, we find a roughly $30{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ chance that were NLA to be the fiducial model, the results would be biased (in the Ωm–S8 plane) by more than 0.3σ. More broadly, the method we propose here is simple and general, and requires a relatively low level of resources. We foresee applications to future analyses as a model selection tool in many contexts.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Monte Carlo control loops for cosmic shear cosmology with DES Year 1 data

Weak lensing by large-scale structure is a powerful probe of cosmology and of the dark universe. This cosmic shear technique relies on the accurate measurement of the shapes and redshifts of background galaxies and requires precise control of systematic errors. Monte Carlo control loops (MCCL) is a forward modeling method designed to tackle this problem. It relies on the ultra fast image generator (UFig) to produce simulated images tuned to match the target data statistically, followed by calibrations and tolerance loops. Here, we present the first end-to-end application of this method, on the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 wide field imaging data. We simultaneously measure the shear power spectrum $C_ℓ$ and the redshift distribution $n(z)$ of the background galaxy sample. The method includes maps of the systematic sources, point spread function (PSF), an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference of the simulation model parameters, a shear calibration scheme, and a fast method to estimate the covariance matrix. We find a close statistical agreement between the simulations and the DES Y1 data using an array of diagnostics. In a nontomographic setting, we derive a set of $C_ℓ$ and $n(z)$ curves that encode the cosmic shear measurement, as well as the systematic uncertainty. Following a blinding scheme, we measure the combination of $Ω_m$, $σ_8$, and intrinsic alignment amplitude $A_{IA}$, defined as $S_8D_{IA}=σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}D_{IA}$, where $D_{IA}=1-0.11(A_{IA}-1)$. We find $S_8D_{IA}=0.8954_{-0.039}^{+0.054}$, where systematics are at the level of roughly 60% of the statistical errors. We discuss these results in the context of earlier cosmic shear analyses of the DES Y1 data. Our findings indicate that this method and its fast runtime offer good prospects for cosmic shear measurements with future wide-field surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fracture-based shape optimization built upon the topological derivative

In Silva et al. (2011) and Alidoost et al. (2020), the authors developed an approximation of the energy release rate field associated with a small edge or surface crack at any boundary location and with any orientation using the topological derivative. The approximation is computationally attractive because it requires only a single analysis on the non-cracked domain in contrast with conventional boundary-element and finite-element-based methods, which require a separate and costlier analysis for each crack length-location-orientation combination. Here, a shape optimization scheme for fracture-resistant structures is developed using the energy release rate approximation. In the gradient-based optimization scheme, the domain and its boundary are defined implicitly using level-set functions. The level-set functions of arbitrary geometries are constructed using Boolean operations from the level-set functions of simple primitives. This geometrical representation has the dual advantage of (i) allowing shapes to intersect and/or separate during the optimization and (ii) simplifying the computation of the shape sensitivities.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Integrating risk assessment methods for carbon storage: A case study for the quest carbon capture and storage facility

This paper documents how tools developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) complement the Bowtie risk assessment approach through the demonstration of a risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for the Quest Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) facility near Edmonton, Alberta with the NRAP Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP Open-IAM). The Bowtie risk assessment for the Quest CCS site was developed by Shell Canada Ltd., who operates the asset on behalf of the Athabasca Oil Sand Project — a joint venture, owned by Canadian Natural Resources Ltd, Chevron Canada and Shell Canada Ltd. The Quest Bowtie treats site risk comprehensively – considering a large set of technical and project risks (e.g., operational risks, above ground infrastructure, public perception, etc.). NRAP tools, methods, and analyses are focused on quantitative assessment of subsurface technical risks. NRAP-Open-IAM was used to evaluate potential groundwater impacts at the Quest site, i.e., a sufficient change above background groundwater quality levels to be measurable, should CO 2 and/or brine leak from the reservoir via a faulty and/or compromised wellbore. Our results show there is a low potential for groundwater impact and support a further reduction (from ~460 to 100 km 2 ) to the established AoR for the Quest site. Integrating both approaches early in the site characterization period could significantly benefit commercial-scale projects by drastically reducing the region over which leakage risks (e.g., legacy wells) need to be evaluated, i.e., the AoR. This is especially true for brownfield sites, which could contain hundreds to thousands of legacy wells. Further, basing monitoring network design on those regions where impacts are most likely to occur has the potential to facilitate more efficient deployment of monitoring technologies and improve the likelihood of detecting a leak should one occur.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Deep Neural Network Assisted Distributed Strain and Temperature Fiber Sensor System for Natural Gas Pipeline Monitoring

Natural gas pipeline integrity monitoring is crucial to detect potential leaks, find structural issues, and prevent environmental damage. This article presents a system of natural gas pipeline monitoring that uses a specialized double Brillouin peak sensing fiber along with the Brillouin optical time domain analysis (BOTDAs) technique. The calibrated sensing fiber coefficients for strain and temperature are 41.8 kHz/ με and 0.9 MHz/°C for peak 1; and 47.2 kHz/ με , and 1.11 MHz/°C for peak 2, respectively. Initially, lab tests were performed by installing a short section of double Brillouin peak fiber (DBPF) on a 1-in steel pipe under pressure up to 1000 per square inch (psi) at elevated temperatures. Simultaneous distributed measurements of temperature and pressure-induced hoop strain were successfully measured. Considering the long processing speed to extract Brillouin frequency shift (BFS), we employ a novel probabilistic deep neural network (PDNN) framework for rapid BFS prediction. Additionally, using the Finite Element Method, the effects of the pipeline pressure on hoop strain were modeled and compared to the experimental hoop strain under the same set of pipeline conditions. Finally, an actual 4-in outer diameter steel natural gas pipeline was used for pilot-scale tests, where hoop strain was measured at various pressure levels. Leaks were simulated to demonstrate accurate pipeline integrity monitoring. At an internal pipe pressure of 1000 psi, hoop strain of approximately 300 με was observed, and the sensitivity was calculated as 0.28 με /psi. The results of this pilot-scale study demonstrated that the system is capable of performing distributed monitoring sufficient to detect pipeline pressure and the presence of leaks to ensure the safe operation of gas pipelines in the field.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

A Bayesian Approach for Statistical–Physical Bulk Parameterization of Rain Microphysics. Part I: Scheme Description

A novel framework is proposed for the bulk parameterization of rain microphysics: the Bayesian Observationally Constrained Statistical–Physical Scheme (BOSS). It is designed to facilitate direct constraint by observations using Bayesian inference. BOSS combines existing process-level microphysical knowledge with flexible process rate formulations and parameters constrained by observations within a Bayesian framework. Furthermore, using a raindrop size distribution (DSD) normalization method that relates DSD moments to one another via generalized power series, generalized multivariate power expressions are derived for the microphysical process rates as functions of a set of prognostic DSD moments. The scheme is flexible and can utilize any number and combination of prognostic moments and any number of terms in the process rate formulations. This means that both uncertainty in parameter values and structural uncertainty associated with the process rate formulations can be investigated systematically, which is not possible using traditional schemes. In this paper, BOSS is compared to two- and three-moment versions of a traditional bulk rain microphysics scheme (denoted as MORR). It is demonstrated that some process formulations in MORR are analytically equivalent to the generalized power expressions in BOSS using one or two terms, while others are not. BOSS is able to replicate the behavior of MORR in idealized one-dimensional rainshaft tests, but with a much more flexible and systematic design. Part II of this study describes the application of BOSS to derive rain microphysical process rates and posterior parameter distributions in Bayesian experiments using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling constrained by synthetic observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Exploring the Energy Frontier through Precision Tests and Fast Tracking with the CMS Detector (Final Technical Report)

This Early Career Award supported a research program using the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC to probe physics beyond the Standard Model in the top quark and Higgs boson sectors, alongside detector and trigger developments for the High-Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) upgrade. The program (i) searched for charged lepton flavor violation (LFV) in the top quark sector with the full CMS Run-2 data set, placing the world’s strongest limits to date on the $t → eµq\ (q = u/c)$ branching fraction; (ii) developed preliminary analysis methods toward a boosted $t\bar{t}H(b\bar{b})$ measurement of the top quark Yukawa coupling and its CP properties; (iii) made leading contributions to the hardware-based Level-1 (L1) track finding system for the upgraded CMS detector for HL-LHC; and (iv) developed novel L1 trigger algorithms, notably a displaced vertex trigger enabling new searches for exotic long-lived particles.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Analysis of the Impurity MgOHCl in Molten Chloride Salts Toward its Electrochemical Removal from CSP Plants During Operation

The work presented here is a study of the impurity MgOHCl in molten chloride salts, toward the eventual goal of electrochemically removing it from operational molten-chloride-based concentrating solar power (CSP) plants.1,2 Implementation of molten chloride salts as a heat transfer fluid is among the most promising pathways for decreasing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of CSP systems because its high thermal stability allows higher operating temperatures, and thus, greater efficiency. However, this impurity - formed when MgCl2 salts are exposed to air and moisture - cause significant corrosion of containment alloys.1 Therefore, we have developed and validated in a laboratory setting: 1) a method for the formation of MgOHCl for controlled impurity spike in molten salt for its further sensing, evaluation, and reduction; 2) evaluated its diffusion in the molten salt, and 3) began assessing its electrochemical properties. Our findings allow us to propose solutions for efficiently and instantly removing MgOHCl from an operational CSP plant.

concentrated solar power↗

Accurate Prediction of Algal Biomass Lipid, Protein, and Carbohydrate Composition with Machine Learning Regression Modelling of Near-IR Spectra

During large scale algal biomass cultivation, it is difficult to reliably control relative composition to target levels. Rapid determination of chemical composition is feasible by using near infrared (NIR) spectral data. We sought to build and improve on reliable high-throughput screening prediction method based on partial least squares regression (PLSR) by the application of artificial neural networks (ANN) and associated optimization strategies. The algal biomass sample set was designed and created in an iterative process of culturing in physiologically diverse conditions at the GAI field site, followed by compositional analyses at NREL. The workflow allowed us to identify gaps in compositional space for informing the subsequent cultivation and sampling efforts and generated a high quality set of 210 unique samples with chemical analysis results, spectral scanning data, and cultivation metadata. We observed a significant improvement in the performance of carbohydrate content predictions using an optimized ANN model compared to PLSR, with > 16% reduction in mean absolute percent error (MAPE) when tested on the same set of reserved data. The optimized ANN models for FAME and protein prediction performed exceptionally well with 5.99% and 5.09% MAPE, respectively. Application of these methods to detection and quantification of minor biomass constituents that are relevant to certain product streams has shown positive preliminary results, opening the possibility for extensions to the outputs of this powerful data type. All models are accompanied by prediction uncertainties and unsupervised spectral outlier detection to alert an operator to unreliable spectral data. These tools can be deployed for rapid determination of algal culture status, and cultivation and biomass quality improvement.

algal biofuels↗

Improving Peptide-Level Mass Spectrometry Analysis via Double Competition

A critical statistical task in the analysis of shotgun proteomics data involves controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) among the reported set of discoveries. This task is most commonly solved at the peptide-spectrum match (PSM) level by using target-decoy competition (TDC), in which a set of observed spectra are searched against a database containing a mixture of real (target) and decoy peptides. The PSM-level procedure can be adapted to the peptide level by selecting the top-scoring PSM per peptide prior to FDR estimation. Here, we investigate both PSM-level and peptide-level FDR control methods and come to two conclusions. First, although the TDC procedure is provably correct under certain assumptions, we observe that one of these assumptions - that incorrect PSMs are independent of one another - is frequently violated. Hence, we empirically demonstrate that TDC-based PSM-level FDR estimates can be liberally biased. Further, we propose that researchers avoid PSM-level results and instead focus on peptide-level analysis. Second, we investigate three ways to carry out peptide level TDC and show that the most common method ("PSM-only") offers the lowest statistical power in practice. The most powerful method, peptide-level FDR with PSM competition ("PSM-and-peptide"), carries out competition first at the PSM level and then again at the peptide level. In our experiments, this approach yields an average increase of 17% more discovered peptides at a1% FDR threshold relative to the PSM-only method.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Construction of linearly independent non-orthogonal AGP states

We show how to construct a linearly independent set of antisymmetrized geminal power (AGP) states, which allows us to rewrite our recently introduced geminal replacement models as linear combinations of non-orthogonal AGPs. Furthermore, this greatly simplifies the evaluation of matrix elements and permits us to introduce an AGP-based selective configuration interaction method, which can reach arbitrary excitation levels relative to a reference AGP, balancing accuracy and cost as we see fit.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗