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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework to calibrate the runoff-generation scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1

Abstract. Runoff is a critical component of the terrestrial water cycle, and Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study its spatiotemporal variability. Runoff schemes in ESMs typically include many parameters so that model calibration is necessary to improve the accuracy of simulated runoff. However, runoff calibration at a global scale is challenging because of the high computational cost and the lack of reliable observational datasets. In this study, we calibrated 11 runoff relevant parameters in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework. First, the polynomial chaos expansion machinery with Bayesian compressed sensing is used to construct computationally inexpensive surrogate models for ELM-simulated runoff at 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ for 1991–2010. The error metric between the ELM simulations and the benchmark data is selected to construct the surrogates, which facilitates efficient calibration and avoids the more conventional, but challenging, construction of high-dimensional surrogates for the ELM simulated runoff. Second, the Sobol' index sensitivity analysis is performed using the surrogate models to identify the most sensitive parameters, and our results show that, in most regions, ELM-simulated runoff is strongly sensitive to 3 of the 11 uncertain parameters. Third, a Bayesian method is used to infer the optimal values of the most sensitive parameters using an observation-based global runoff dataset as the benchmark. Our results show that model performance is significantly improved with the inferred parameter values. Although the parametric uncertainty of simulated runoff is reduced after the parameter inference, it remains comparable to the multimodel ensemble uncertainty represented by the global hydrological models in ISMIP2a. Additionally, the annual global runoff trend during the simulation period is not well constrained by the inferred parameter values, suggesting the importance of including parametric uncertainty in future runoff projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Candidate Designs and Performance Optimization for an Electric Traction Motor Targeting 50 kW/L Power Density

The continued expansion of the global electric vehicle fleet is accompanied by an unprecedented demand for high power density electric traction motors. With the ambitious U.S. DRIVE 2025 target of 50 kW/L power density and an equally aggressive cost reduction goal, innovative approaches have to be utilized in terms of both the design and manufacturing of electric traction motors. In this paper, six motor options are compared and the best design is picked for each option to investigate the drive and excitation requirements and the weighted power efficiency over multiple load points, with necessary mechanical stress and demagnetization checks. State-of-the-art winding technologies, including high slot fill die compressed windings and hairpin windings, and rotors both with permanent magnet (PM) and PM-free are incorporated. The design of high flux density and low harmonic content magnetic field is also demonstrated.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying and Optimizing the Energy Benefits of Mass Timber Construction

The International Mass Timber Alliance (IMTA) is a global organization of industry leaders, engineers, scientists, and associations dedicated to advancing mass timber construction. Its mission is to generate and disseminate scientific data supporting the development of standardized construction and energy efficient practices that promote the adoption of mass timber worldwide. IMTA collaborated with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to leverage ORNL’s expertise in building envelope modeling and testing to evaluate how mass timber construction can reduce peak heating and cooling demand, lower overall energy use, and improve resilience during power outages. A previous study of 80 mass timber buildings in Finland found measured energy use up to 50% lower than predicted by simulation. This project aimed to validate and extend those findings for U.S. buildings through analytical modeling, laboratory testing, and full-scale building evaluations. The research focused on the thermal performance of low-embodied-energy wall assemblies, such as cross-laminated timber (CLT) panels and log walls, with particular attention to the effects of thermal inertia on indoor comfort and energy performance. While mass timber’s structural and fire-resistance properties are well documented, its whole-building thermal behavior has received limited attention. Field data, simulation results, and resilience testing from this study will inform future modeling practices, design guidelines, and construction practices by quantifying the unique thermal and demand-flexibility benefits of mass timber construction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic machine learning via sigma profiles to build a digital chemical space

This work establishes a different paradigm on digital molecular spaces and their efficient navigation by exploiting sigma profiles. To do so, the remarkable capability of Gaussian processes (GPs), a type of stochastic machine learning model, to correlate and predict physicochemical properties from sigma profiles is demonstrated, outperforming state-of-the-art neural networks previously published. The amount of chemical information encoded in sigma profiles eases the learning burden of machine learning models, permitting the training of GPs on small datasets which, due to their negligible computational cost and ease of implementation, are ideal models to be combined with optimization tools such as gradient search or Bayesian optimization (BO). Gradient search is used to efficiently navigate the sigma profile digital space, quickly converging to local extrema of target physicochemical properties. While this requires the availability of pretrained GP models on existing datasets, such limitations are eliminated with the implementation of BO, which can find global extrema with a limited number of iterations. A remarkable example of this is that of BO toward boiling temperature optimization. Holding no knowledge of chemistry except for the sigma profile and boiling temperature of carbon monoxide (the worst possible initial guess), BO finds the global maximum of the available boiling temperature dataset (over 1,000 molecules encompassing more than 40 families of organic and inorganic compounds) in just 15 iterations (i.e., 15 property measurements), cementing sigma profiles as a powerful digital chemical space for molecular optimization and discovery, particularly when little to no experimental data is initially available.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improving wafer-scale Josephson junction resistance variation in superconducting quantum coherent circuits

Quantum bits, or qubits, are an example of coherent circuits envisioned for next-generation computers and detectors. A robust superconducting qubit with a coherent lifetime of O (100 µs) is the transmon: a Josephson junction functioning as a non-linear inductor shunted with a capacitor to form an anharmonic oscillator. In a complex device with many such transmons, precise control over each qubit frequency is often required, and thus variations of the junction area and tunnel barrier thickness must be sufficiently minimized to achieve optimal performance while avoiding spectral overlap between neighboring circuits. Simply transplanting our recipe optimized for single, stand-alone devices to wafer-scale (producing 64, 1x1 cm dies from a 150 mm wafer) initially resulted in global drifts in room-temperature tunneling resistance of ± 30%. Inferring a critical current variation from this resistance distribution, we present an optimized process developed from a systematic 38 wafer study that results in < 3.5% relative standard deviation (RSD) in critical current ( ) for 3000 Josephson junctions (both single-junctions and asymmetric SQUIDs) across an area of 49 cm 2 . Looking within a 1x1 cm moving window across the substrate gives an estimate of the variation characteristic of a given qubit chip. Our best process, utilizing ultrasonically assisted development, uniform ashing, and dynamic oxidation has shown = 1.8% within 1x1 cm, on average, with a few 1x1 cm areas having < 1.0% (equivalent to < 0.5%). Such stability would drastically improve the yield of multi-junction chips with strict critical current requirements.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Flexible Quasi-Static Mooring Design Optimization Method for Floating Structures

This paper presents a flexible and efficient design method for optimizing the mooring systems of floating structures. Mooring system optimization is challenging because of the strong nonlinearity of mooring system behavior and the many technical constraints that must be satisfied. Furthermore, different mooring configurations can have very different design spaces. While some successful examples of mooring design optimization exist in the literature, developing an optimization approach that can work across various mooring design problems is a larger challenge. We present such a method based on a flexible parameterization that allows a wide variety of mooring designs to be described by a list of variables, a quasi-static mooring model that provides efficient evaluation of a mooring design without directly considering mooring system dynamics, and an optimization framework that generates, evaluates, and adjusts the mooring design while considering user-specified constraints such as offset limits, strength safety factors, and seabed contact limits. We demonstrate the design optimization framework on four mooring design problems, each for a different type of mooring system. We compare the use of different design modes to simplify the optimization problem, showing that they can reduce the computation time by up to 75%. We also compare different optimization algorithms and find that the resulting computational speed can vary by up to 51 times. We perform a sensitivity study on one design and find that the local sensitivity of anchoring radius to water depth has a positive correlation of 0.29, but the global sensitivity shows large nonlinearities. Lastly, we perform a coupled dynamic analysis on one of the optimized designs and find that the predicted mean platform motions and mooring line tensions are within 1% of dynamic results and the extreme motions and tensions are within 14%. Lastly, we show that a DEA-Chain-Polyester mooring configuration is cost-optimal for the given design problem of the demonstrations, which aligns with general industry practice.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-objective optimization of root phenotypes for nutrient capture using evolutionary algorithms

Root phenotypes are avenues to the development of crop cultivars with improved nutrient capture, which is an important goal for global agriculture. The fitness landscape of root phenotypes is highly complex and multidimensional. It is difficult to predict which combinations of traits (phene states) will create the best performing integrated phenotypes in various environments. Brute force methods to map the fitness landscape by simulating millions of phenotypes in multiple environments are computationally challenging. Evolutionary optimization algorithms may provide more efficient avenues to explore high dimensional domains such as the root phenotypic space. We coupled the three-dimensional functional–structural plant model, SimRoot, to the Borg Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm (MOEA) and the evolutionary search over several generations facilitated the identification of optimal root phenotypes balancing trade-offs across nutrient uptake, biomass accumulation, and root carbon costs in environments varying in nutrient availability. Our results show that several combinations of root phenes generate optimal integrated phenotypes where performance in one objective comes at the cost of reduced performance in one or more of the remaining objectives, and such combinations differed for mobile and non-mobile nutrients and for maize (a monocot) and bean (a dicot). Functional–structural plant models can be used with multi-objective optimization to identify optimal root phenotypes under various environments, including future climate scenarios, which will be useful in developing the more resilient, efficient crops urgently needed in global agriculture.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Global Sensitivity Analysis of Three-Phase Distribution System with PVs

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of distribution system with respect to stochastic PV variations plays an important role in designing optimal voltage control schemes. This paper proposes a Kriging, i.e., Gaussian process modeling enabled data-driven GSA method. The key idea is to develop a surrogate model that captures the hidden global relationship between voltage and real and reactive power injections from the historical data. With the surrogate model, the Sobol index can be conveniently calculated to assess the global sensitivity of voltage to various power injection variations. Comparison results with other model-based GSA methods on the IEEE 37-bus feeder, such as the polynomial chaos expansion and the Monte Carlo approaches demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve accurate GSA outcomes while maintaining high computational efficiency.

distribution system analysis↗

DOE OSTI2021

Balanced k -means clustering on an adiabatic quantum computer

Adiabatic quantum computers are a promising platform for efficiently solving challenging optimization problems. Therefore, many are interested in using these computers to train computationally expensive machine learning models. We present a quantum approach to solving the balanced k-means clustering training problem on the D-Wave 2000Q adiabatic quantum computer. In order to do this, we formulate the training problem as a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) problem. Unlike existing classical algorithms, our QUBO formulation targets the global solution to the balanced k-means model. We test our approach on a number of small problems and observe that despite the theoretical benefits of the QUBO formulation, the clustering solution obtained by a modern quantum computer is usually inferior to the solution obtained by the best classical clustering algorithms. Nevertheless, the solutions provided by the quantum computer do exhibit some promising characteristics. We also perform a scalability study to estimate the run time of our approach on large problems using future quantum hardware. Finally, as a final proof of concept, we used the quantum approach to cluster random subsets of the Iris benchmark data set.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

FY19 FES Theory Performance Target (Final Report)

Understanding the relevant turbulent transport mechanisms at the edge of a high-performance tokamak is essential for predicting and optimizing the H-mode pedestal structure in future burning plasma devices. Global electromagnetic gyrokinetic simulations will be performed based on representative experimental pedestal scenarios in order to clarify which instabilities are most important for each of the particle and heat transport channels. Edge transport modeling will be performed in order to estimate and bound the particle and heat sources—e.g., the ionization density source and the atomic energy loss channels due to ionization, charge exchange, and radiation. Comparisons will be made with data from the DIII-D, JET, C-Mod and NSTX or MAST experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

GCAM–GLORY v1.0: representing global reservoir water storage in a multi-sector human–Earth system model

Abstract. Reservoirs play a significant role in modifying the spatiotemporal availability of surface water to meet multi-sector human demands, despite representing a relatively small fraction of the global water budget. Yet the integrated modeling frameworks that explore the interactions among climate, land, energy, water, and socioeconomic systems at a global scale often contain limited representations of water storage dynamics that incorporate feedbacks from other systems. In this study, we implement a representation of water storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to enable the exploration of the future role (e.g., expansion) of reservoir water storage globally in meeting demands for, and evolving in response to interactions with, the climate, land, and energy systems. GCAM represents 235 global water basins, operates at 5-year time steps, and uses supply curves to capture economic competition among renewable water (now including reservoirs), non-renewable groundwater, and desalination. Our approach consists of developing the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model, which uses a linear programming (LP)-based optimization algorithm and dynamically linking GLORY with GCAM. The new coupled GCAM–GLORY approach improves the representation of reservoir water storage in GCAM in several ways. First, the GLORY model identifies the cost of supplying increasing levels of water supply from reservoir storage by considering regional physical and economic factors, such as evolving monthly reservoir inflows and demands, and the leveled cost of constructing additional reservoir storage capacity. Second, by passing those costs to GCAM, GLORY enables the exploration of future regional reservoir expansion pathways and their response to climate and socioeconomic drivers. To guide the model toward reasonable reservoir expansion pathways, GLORY applies a diverse array of feasibility constraints related to protected land, population, water sources, and cropland. Finally, the GLORY–GCAM feedback loop allows evolving water demands from GCAM to inform GLORY, resulting in an updated supply curve at each time step, thus enabling GCAM to establish a more meaningful economic value of water. This study improves our understanding of the sensitivity of reservoir water supply to multiple physical and economic dimensions, such as sub-annual variations in climate conditions and human water demands, especially for basins experiencing socioeconomic droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Collaborative Research: Improved Efficiency and Coupling of the Radiation Code in the ACME Earth System Model. Final Report

This final report details all work performed on the project by both project partners. This project provided support to properly couple RTE+RRTMGP, a high-performance broadband radiation code, within DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). RTE+RRTMGP is a successor to the RRTMG radiation code, which has been widely accepted for its speed and accuracy by the global modeling community, and has been in use in the NCAR CESM for many years and was implemented in the initial version of E3SM. However, the computational cost of RRTMG remains high relative to other components in part due to its complexity and to its inefficient use of modern optimization strategies, issues that were rectified by the development of RTE+RRTMGP. Many of the accomplishment in this project necessitated significant collaboration with the E3SM development team. One focus of the project was to enhance the code’s optimization on the limited number of emerging computing systems on which the model is expected be used, including Many Integrated Core (MIC) architectures and Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) hardware. We also developed additional capabilities for RTE+RRTMGP that E3SM scientists identified as important for the planned applications of the model. The result of our project was optimization of a key physical component (radiative transfer calculations) of E3SM, directly supporting E3SM’s overarching global modeling objectives. More broadly, this project provided overall advancements in the use of radiative transfer calculations in atmospheric modeling and simulation, particularly for climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Phased: Phase-Aware Submodularity-Based Energy Disaggregation

Energy disaggregation is the task of discerning the energy consumption of individual appliances from aggregated measurements, which holds promise for understanding and reducing energy usage. In this paper, we propose PHASED, an optimization approach for energy disaggregation that has two key features: PHASED (i) exploits the structure of power distribution systems to make use of readily available measurements that are neglected by existing methods, and (ii) poses the problem as a minimization of a difference of sub-modular functions. We leverage this form by applying a discrete optimization variant of the majorization-minimization algorithm to iteratively minimize a sequence of global upper bounds of the cost function to obtain high-quality approximate solutions. PHASED improves the disaggregation accuracy of state-of-the-art models by up to 61% and achieves better prediction on heavy load appliances.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Systems Analysis and Optimization of Circular PET Packaging Supply Chains in the United States: Environmental and Socioeconomic Impacts

Many actions are underway at global, national, and local levels to address the plastic waste problem and transition toward a circular economy of plastics. Studies evaluating environmental and socioeconomic impacts of such a transition are lacking. Here, the purpose of this study is to conduct a national systems analysis of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) packaging supply chains in the United States. Material flow data was combined with environmental and socioeconomic indicators to evaluate and compare the sustainability of the linear PET packaging supply chain, current (2019) supply chain, and possible future circular supply chain options in the United States. Environmentally optimal circular US PET packaging material flows showed 31% and 38% savings of GHG emissions and energy demand, respectively, with a circularity of 77% when compared with a linear supply chain. Additionally, the environmentally optimal system showed higher employment (29%) and wages (31%) than a linear system, but with a 5% decrease in revenue generation. A socioeconomically optimal circular PET supply chain showed increased employment (by 52%), wages (by 67%), and revenues (by 1%), with a circularity of 59% when compared with the linear system. However, it showed 14% higher GHG emissions than a linear system, indicating a trade-off between environmentally and socioeconomically optimal circular PET packaging systems. Overall, linear-to-circular material flow transition may not necessarily lead to increased revenues and decreased environmental impacts of the entire system, but it does benefit society due to increased employment and wages. Future systems analysis work should focus on improving data quality for environmental and socioeconomic dimensions.

PET↗

DOE OSTI2026

Implementing a unified solver for nonlinearly constrained optimization

SQP and interior-point methods (also referred to as Lagrange-Newton methods) typically share key algorithmic components, such as strategies for computing descent directions and mechanisms that promote global convergence. Building on this insight, we introduce a unifying framework with eight building blocks that abstracts the workflows of Lagrange-Newton methods. We then present Uno, a modular C++ solver that implements our unifying framework and allows the automatic combination of a wide range of strategies with no programming effort from the user. Uno is meant to (1) organize mathematical optimization strategies into a coherent hierarchy; (2) offer a wide range of efficient and robust methods that can be compared for a given instance; (3) enable researchers to experiment with novel optimization strategies; and (4) reduce the cost of development and maintenance of multiple optimization solvers. Uno’s software design allows user to compose new customized solvers for emerging optimization areas such as robust optimization or optimization problems with complementarity constraints, while building on reliable nonlinear optimization techniques. We demonstrate that Uno is highly competitive against state-of-the-art solvers filterSQP, IPOPT, SNOPT, MINOS, LANCELOT, LOQO, and CONOPT on a subset of 429 small problems from the CUTE collection. Uno is available as open-source software under the MIT license at https://github.com/cvanaret/Uno and via its C, Julia, Python, Fortran, and AMPL interfaces.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Distributed quantum approximate optimization algorithm on a quantum-centric supercomputing architecture

Quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) has shown promise in solving combinatorial optimization problems by providing quantum speedup on near-term gate-based quantum computing systems. However, QAOA faces challenges for high-dimensional problems due to the large number of qubits required and the complexity of deep circuits, limiting its scalability for real-world applications. In this study, we present a distributed QAOA (DQAOA), which leverages distributed computing strategies to decompose a large computational workload into smaller tasks that require fewer qubits and shallower circuits than are necessary to solve the original problem. These sub-problems are processed using a combination of high-performance and quantum computing resources. The global solution is iteratively updated by aggregating sub-solutions, allowing convergence toward the optimal solution. We demonstrate that DQAOA can handle considerably large-scale optimization problems (e.g., 1000-bit problem), achieving a high solution quality and short time-to-solution, outperforming existing strategies. Furthermore, we realize DQAOA on a quantum-centric supercomputing architecture, paving the way for practical applications of gate-based quantum computers in real-world optimization tasks. To extend DQAOA’s applicability to materials science, we further develop an active learning algorithm integrated with our DQAOA (AL-DQAOA), which involves machine learning, DQAOA, and active data production in an iterative loop. We successfully optimize photonic structures using AL-DQAOA, indicating that solving real-world optimization problems using gate-based quantum computing is feasible. We expect the proposed DQAOA to be applicable to a wide range of optimization problems and AL-DQAOA to find broader applications in material design.

Kim, Seongmin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000159063004)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Revolutionizing Energy Storage: AI, Automation, and Advanced Modeling as Catalysts for Next-Generation Breakthroughs

The Presidential Symposium (PRES) at the 2025 Fall Meeting, hosted by the President’s Office and Energy and Fuels Division, American Chemical Society (ACS) in Washington, DC, brought together a diverse group of chemists, engineers, and materials scientists working in battery materials & systems, automation and artificial intelligence from academia, industry, and national laboratories. The accelerating demand for high-performance, scalable, and sustainable energy storage has catalyzed a paradigm shift in how materials are dis-covered, devices are engineered, and systems are optimized. This Presidential Symposium, entitled “Revolutionizing Energy Storage: AI, Automation, and Advanced Modeling Driving Next-Gen Breakthroughs”, brings together global leaders to unveil transformative strategies anchored in the AAA framework: Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Advanced Modeling. Artificial Intelligence is redefining the frontiers of energy storage by enabling predictive design, real-time optimization, and intelligent control across diverse chemistries and architectures. Automation is streamlining the synthesis, characterization, and testing of battery materials, dramatically accelerating innovation cycles and unlocking scalable solutions for grid and mobility applications. Advanced Modeling, spanning atomic to system-level scales, provides unprecedented insight into electrochemical dynamics, degradation pathways, and thermal behavior, particularly when coupled with physics-informed machine learning and digital twin technologies. Digital twins, in turn, leverage the AAA framework by integrating real-time data, physics-based models, and AI predictions into dynamic virtual replicas, enabling proactive diagnostics, optimization, and system resilience. Together, these synergistic pillars are not only re-shaping the scientific landscape but also forging a new era of reproducible, data-driven, and resilient energy storage innovation. In conclusion, this symposium marks a pivotal moment in the convergence of computational intelligence and experimental rigor, charting the course for next-generation breakthroughs in lithium-ion, solid-state, and flow battery technologies.

Artificial Intelligence (AI)↗

DOE OSTI2021

A novel machine learning-based optimization algorithm (ActivO) for accelerating simulation-driven engine design

A novel design optimization approach (ActivO) that employs an ensemble of machine learning algorithms is presented. The proposed approach is a surrogate-based scheme, where the predictions of a weak leaner and a strong learner are utilized within an active learning loop. The weak learner is used to identify promising regions within the design space to explore, while the strong learner is used to determine the exact location of the optimum within promising regions. For each design iteration, exploration is done by randomly selecting evaluation points within regions where the weak learner-predicted fitness is high. The global optimum obtained by using the strong learner as a surrogate is also evaluated to enable rapid convergence once the most promising region has been identified. First, the performance of ActivO was compared against five other optimizers on a cosine mixture function with 25 local optima and one global optimum. In the second problem, the objective was to minimize indicated specific fuel consumption of a compression-ignition internal combustion (IC) engine while adhering to desired constraints associated with in-cylinder pressure and emissions. In this work, the efficacy of the proposed approach is compared to that of a genetic algorithm, which is widely used within the internal combustion engine community for engine optimization, showing that ActivO reduces the number of function evaluations needed to reach the global optimum, and thereby time-to-design by 80%. Furthermore, the optimization of engine design parameters leads to savings of around 1.9% in energy consumption, while maintaining operability and acceptable pollutant emissions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗