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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2023

Symmetric Kondo Lattice States in Doped Strained Twisted Bilayer Graphene

We use the topological heavy fermion (THF) model and its Kondo lattice (KL) formulation to study the possibility of a symmetric Kondo (SK) state in twisted bilayer graphene. Via a large-N approximation, we find a SK state in the KL model at fillings v = 0,±1,±2 where a KL model can be constructed. In the SK state, all symmetries are preserved and the local moments are Kondo screened by the conduction electrons. At the mean-field level of the THF model at v = 0,±1,±2,±3 we also find a similar symmetric state that is adiabatically connected to the symmetric Kondo state. We study the stability of the symmetric state by comparing its energy with the ordered (symmetry-breaking) states found in [H. Hu et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 131, 026502 (2023)., Z.-D. Song and B. A. Bernevig, Phys. Rev. Lett. 129, 047601 (2022).] and find the ordered states to have lower energy at v = 0,±1,±2. However, moving away from integer fillings by doping the light bands, our mean-field calculations find the energy difference between the ordered state and the symmetric state to be reduced, which suggests the loss of ordering and a tendency toward Kondo screening. In order to include many-body effects beyond the mean-field approximation, we also performed dynamical mean-field theory calculations on the THF model in the nonordered phase. The spin susceptibility follows a Curie behavior at v = 0,±1,±2 down to ~2 K where the onset of screening of the local moment becomes visible. This hints to very low Kondo temperatures at these fillings, in agreement with the outcome of our mean-field calculations. At noninteger filling v = ±0.5,±0.8,±1.2 dynamical mean-field theory shows deviations from a 1/T susceptibility at much higher temperatures, suggesting a more effective screening of local moments with doping. Lastly, we study the effect of a C 3⁢z -rotational-symmetry-breaking strain via mean-field approaches and find that a symmetric phase (that only breaks C 3⁢z symmetry) can be stabilized at sufficiently large strain at v = 0,±1,±2. Our results suggest that a symmetric Kondo phase is strongly suppressed at integer fillings, but could be stabilized either at noninteger fillings or by applying strain.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Association between optically identified galaxy clusters and the underlying dark matter halos

Clusters of galaxies trace massive dark matter halos in the Universe, but they can include multiple halos projected along lines of sight. Here, we study the halos contributing to clusters using the Cardinal simulation, which mimics the Dark Energy Survey data. We use the red-sequence-based cluster finding algorithm redMaPPer as a case study. For each cluster, we identify the halos hosting its member galaxies, and we define the main halo as the one contributing the most to the cluster's richness ($λ$, the estimated number of member galaxies). At $z=0.3$, for clusters with $λ> 60$, the main halo typically contributes to $92\%$ of the richness, and this fraction drops to $67\%$ for $λ\approx 20$. Defining "clean" clusters as those with $\geq50\%$ of the richness contributed by the main halo, we find that $100\%$ of the $λ> 60$ clusters are clean, while $73\%$ of the $λ\approx 20$ clusters are clean. Three halos can usually account for more than $80\%$ of the richness of a cluster. The main halos associated with redMaPPer clusters have a completeness ranging from $98\%$ at virial mass $10^{14.6}~h^{-1}M_{\odot}$ to $64\%$ at $10^{14}~h^{-1}M_{\odot}$. In addition, we compare the inferred cluster centers with true halo centers, finding that $30\%$ of the clusters are miscentered with a mean offset $40\%$ of the cluster radii, in agreement with recent X-ray studies. These systematics worsen as redshift increases, but we expect that upcoming surveys extending to longer wavelengths will improve the cluster finding at high redshifts. Our results affirm the robustness of the redMaPPer algorithm and provide a framework for benchmarking other cluster-finding strategies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraints on neutrino physics from DESI DR2 BAO and DR1 full shape

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Collaboration has obtained robust measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations in the redshift range 0.1 < 𝑧 < 4.2, based on the Lyman-𝛼 forest and galaxies from data release 2. We combine these measurements with cosmic microwave background (CMB) data from Planck and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope to place our tightest constraints yet on the sum of neutrino masses. Assuming the cosmological Λ⁢ CDM model and three degenerate neutrino states, we find ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.0642 eV (95%) with a marginalized error of 𝜎⁡(∑𝑚 𝜈 ) = 0.020 eV. We also constrain the effective number of neutrino species, finding 𝑁 eff = 3.2⁢3$^{+0.35}_{−0.34}$ (95%), in line with the Standard Model prediction. When accounting for neutrino oscillation constraints, we find a preference for the normal mass ordering and an upper limit on the lightest neutrino mass of 𝑚 𝑙 < 0.023 eV (95%). However, we determine using frequentist and Bayesian methods that our constraints are in tension with the lower limits derived from neutrino oscillations. Correcting for the physical boundary at zero mass, we report a 95% Feldman-Cousins upper limit of ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.053 eV, breaching the lower limit from neutrino oscillations. Considering a more general Bayesian analysis with an effective cosmological neutrino mass parameter, ∑𝑚 𝜈,eff , that allows for negative energy densities and removes unsatisfactory prior weight effects, we derive constraints that are in 3⁢𝜎 tension with the same oscillation limit, while the error rises to 𝜎⁡(∑𝑚 𝜈,eff ) = 0.053 eV. In the absence of unknown systematics, this finding could be interpreted as a hint of new physics not necessarily related to neutrinos. The preference of DESI and CMB data for an evolving dark energy model offers one possible solution. In the 𝑤 0 ⁢𝑤 𝑎 ⁢CDM model, we find ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.163 eV (95%), relaxing the neutrino tension. These constraints all rely on the effects of neutrinos on the cosmic expansion history. Using full-shape power spectrum measurements of data release 1 galaxies, we place complementary constraints that rely on neutrino free streaming. Our strongest such limit in Λ ⁢CDM, using selected CMB priors, is ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.193 eV (95%).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A previously uncharacterized divisome-associated lipoprotein, DalA, is needed for normal cell division in Rhodobacterales

ABSTRACT The bacterial cell envelope is a key subcellular compartment with important roles in antibiotic resistance, nutrient acquisition, and cell morphology. We seek to gain a better understanding of proteins that contribute to the function of the cell envelope in Alphaproteobacteria . Using Rhodobacter sphaeroides , we show that a previously uncharacterized protein, RSP_1200, is an outer membrane (OM) lipoprotein that non-covalently binds peptidoglycan (PG). Using a fluorescently tagged version of this protein, we find that RSP_1200 undergoes a dynamic repositioning during the cell cycle and is enriched at the septum during cell division. We show that the position of RSP_1200 mirrors the location of FtsZ rings, leading us to propose that RSP_1200 is a newly identified component of the R. sphaeroides ’ divisome. Additional support for this hypothesis includes the co-precipitation of RSP_1200 with FtsZ, the Pal protein, and several predicted PG L,D-transpeptidases. We also find that a ∆ RSP_1200 mutation leads to defects in cell division, sensitivity to PG-active antibiotics, and results in the formation of OM protrusions at the septum during cell division. Based on these results, we propose to name RSP_1200 DalA (for division-associated lipoprotein A) and postulate that DalA serves as a scaffold to position or modulate the activity of PG transpeptidases that are needed to form envelope invaginations during cell division. We find that DalA homologs are present in members of the Rhodobacterales order within Alphaproteobacteria . Therefore, we propose that further analysis of this and related proteins will increase our understanding of the macromolecular machinery and proteins that participate in cell division in Gram-negative bacteria. IMPORTANCE Multi-protein complexes of the bacterial cell envelope orchestrate key processes like growth, division, biofilm formation, antimicrobial resistance, and production of valuable compounds. The subunits of these protein complexes are well studied in some bacteria, and differences in their composition and function are linked to variations in cell envelope composition, shape, and proliferation. However, some envelope protein complex subunits have no known homologs across the bacterial phylogeny. We find that Rhodobacter sphaeroides RSP_1200 is a newly identified lipoprotein (DalA) and that loss of this protein causes defects in cell division and changes the sensitivity to compounds, affecting cell envelope synthesis and function. We find that DalA forms a complex with proteins needed for cell division, binds the cell envelope polymer peptidoglycan, and colocalizes with enzymes involved in the assembly of this macromolecule. The analysis of DalA provides new information on the cell division machinery in this and possibly other Alphaproteobacteria.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global Trends of ASME "N-Stamp" Certifications for Nuclear Component Vendors

Historically, nuclear component manufacturing vendors, from small businesses through large conglomerates, have felt compelled to obtain an American Society for Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Nuclear Certification, known colloquially as an "N-stamp", to assure supply chain quality standards that will be acceptable to regulators and safety concerns. Since the N-stamp quality standard is a U.S.-origin code, combined with the apparent decline in the U.S. nuclear industry alongside the growth of the Asian nuclear industry, there is the question of whether the rest of the world, including new entrants to the nuclear industry, also regard N-stamp as a needed certification. This study addresses this question through analysis of the entire N-stamp database of holders, and former holders, of N-stamp certificates of all types and for all regions worldwide from 1989-2020 (the dates available in the database). From this 30 years of data, we find that actually U.S.-based vendors still consistently obtain the largest number of N-stamps worldwide over all time periods, but also find that the countries participating in the N-stamp certification process has broadly expanded beyond just North America, Japan, S. Korea and Western Europe (the primary N-stamp recipients before the mid-2000's). We produced global heats maps and bar charts to illustrate our findings, as well as further investigation into why the data shows changes over time and region. We note that nuclear entities involved with Soviet-type reactors do not participate in the N-stamp process, but instead pursue the Russian version PNAE, which is substantially similar to the ASME code. We conclude that at least from the N-stamp database, the United States nuclear component manufacturing industry is alive and well, although there have been some consolidations, and that the ASME N-stamp appears to still be a valued certificate worldwide, including in China which now ranks second only to the United States in obtaining N-stamp certificates in recent years. We further note that the vendors of new reactor types, in particular High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), are actively engaged with ASME (and other U.S.-based nuclear standards bodies such as the American Nuclear Society and Nuclear Energy Institute) to coordinate updates to the ASME N-Stamp criteria to ensure applicability of the code for these new designs. Implications of these findings include the following: The global use of the U.S.-origin N-stamp certification supports the view that, despite the decline of the U.S. nuclear industry, the United States remains an esteemed global leader in the area of nuclear safety. As the U.S. Government works to revitalize the U.S. nuclear industry, especially in the area of exports, it may be beneficial to leverage the global standing of the N-stamp certification. The findings indicate that the N-stamp database would be a useful tool for the U.S. Government to use to track the growth of the civil nuclear industry in foreign countries, under certain circumstances. The Excel-format N-stamp database produced as part of this study may be a useful tool for this purpose. N-stamp data may be a useful tool for foreign governments to use to identify nuclear manufacturers within their own country, especially to identify "targets" for outreach on nuclear export control compliance. The U.S. Government could carry this message to foreign partners during bilateral engagements or as part of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) discussions on industry outreach.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Calculation fo the Reflection and Transmission Coefficients for Gradual Tapered Waveguide Structures

It is required to find the reflection and transmission coefficients for a tapered waveguide. It is assumed that the taper is very long and gradual such that no higher order modes are excited from the discontinuity of the waveguide. Three different methods are presented for finding the reflection coefficient and two methods are presented for finding the transmission coefficient. A traditional differential equation method which finds only the reflection coefficient is presented. An additional set of differential equations are presented which finds both the reflection and transmission coefficients. A FEM (finite element method), which solves for both the reflection and transmission coefficients, is presented with its limitations. An example of a tapered coaxial line and waveguide is presented with the different methods compared and contrasted.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Light Water Sustainability Program: Optimizing Information Automation Using a New Method Based on System-Theoretic Process Analysis

This report describes the interim progress for research supporting the design and optimization of information automation systems for nuclear power plants. Much of the domestic nuclear fleet is currently focused on modernizing technologies and processes, including transitioning toward digitalization in the control room and elsewhere throughout the plant, along with a greater use of automation, artificial intelligence, robotics, and other emerging technologies. While there are significant opportunities to apply these technologies toward greater plant safety, efficiency, and overall cost-effectiveness, optimizing their design and avoiding potential safety and performance risks depends on ensuring that human-performance-related organizational and technical design issues are identified and addressed. This report describes modeling tools and techniques, based on sociotechnical system theory, to support these design goals and their application in the current research effort. The report is intended for senior nuclear energy stakeholders, including regulators, corporate management, and senior plant management. We have developed and employed a method to design an optimized information automation ecosystem (IAE) based on the systems-theoretic constructs underlying sociotechnical systems theory in general and the Systems-Theoretic Accident Modeling and Processes (STAMP) approach in particular. We argue that an IAE can be modeled as an interactive information control system whose behavior can be understood in terms of dynamic control and feedback relationships amongst the system’s technical and organizational components. Up to this point, we have employed a Causal Analysis based on STAMP (CAST) technique to examine a performance- and safety-related incident at an industry partner’s plant that involved the unintentional activation of an emergency diesel generator. This analysis provided insight into the behavior of the plant’s current information control structure within the context of a specific, significant event. Our ongoing analysis is focused on identifying near-term process improvements and longer-term design requirements for an optimized IAE system. The latter analyses will employ a second STAMP-derived technique, System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA). STPA is a useful modeling tool for generating and analyzing actual or potential information control structures. Finally, we have begun modeling plantwide organizational relationships and processes. Organizational system modeling will supplement our CAST and STPA findings and provide a basis for mapping out a plantwide information control architecture. CAST analysis findings indicate an important underlying contributor to the incident under investigation, and a significant risk to information automation system performance, was perceived schedule pressure, which exposed weaknesses in interdepartmental coordination between and within responsible plant organizations and challenged the resilience of established plant processes, until a human caused the initiating event. These findings are discussed in terms of their risk to overall system performance and their implications for information automation system resilience and brittleness. We present two preliminary information automation models. The proactive issue resolution model is a test case of an information automation concept with significant near-term potential for application and subsequent reduction in significant plant events. The IAE model is a more general representation of a broader, plantwide information automation system. From our results, we have generated a set of preliminary system-level requirements and safety constraints. These requirements will be further developed over the remainder of our project in collaboration with nuclear industry subject matter experts and specialists in the technical systems under consideration. Additionally, we will continue to pursue the system analyses initiated in the first part of our effort, with a particular emphasis on STPA as the main tool to identify weak or weakening control structures that affect the resilience of organizations and programs. Our intent is to broaden the scope of the analysis from an individual use case to a related set of use cases (e.g., maintenance tasks, compliance tasks) with similar human-system performance challenges. This will enable more generalized findings to refine the Proactive Issue Resolution and IAE models, as well as their system-level requirements and safety constraints. We will use organizational system modeling analyses to supplement STPA findings and model development. We conclude the report with a set of summary recommendations and an initial draft list of system-level requirements and safety constraints for optimized information automation systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Third-Party Aggregation Rulemaking in MISO and SPP Footprints

The report highlights key considerations for retail regulators in the footprints of the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) or Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) in states that previously opted out of allowing third-party aggregation participation under FERC Order 719 and that may want to explore reversing the decision due to a changing policy environment under new FERC orders (i.e., 2222) and/or tightening resource adequacy constraints. Through a document review and a series of 27 interviews with regulators, aggregators, and other industry professionals, this document provides a high-level policy overview of the retail regulator’s role in a selection of processes, rules, and regulations to better understand how states have treated and/or integrated aggregators into wholesale markets. The report summarizes findings in two sections: General Findings and Specific Policy Findings. The General Findings offer high level takeaways such as the fact that 17 of the 20 states in MISO and SPP footprints opted out of third party aggregations following Order 719. Additionally, there is only one state that is fully restructured in the MISO and SPP footprints whereas the rest are vertically integrated, and the majority of third-party aggregations in the U.S. take place in restructured states outside of these footprints. Even so, third-party aggregations do take place in MISO and SPP albeit in small numbers and in an ad hoc regulatory environment. The specific policy findings delve deeper into specific examples of state actions on the topics of jurisdiction, registration and licensing, data governance, dual participation, and dispute resolution. Tables in each category organize state actions into Tiers I-III, which roughly correspond to the possible level of involvement or possible change necessary by state regulators and/or legislators to implement these actions. The tier level does not indicate any value judgement, as each state has respective regulatory limitations and each decision comes with various tradeoffs. One main tradeoff is between simplicity and quick implementation versus comprehensive and prolonged implementation. In many cases, actions in Tier I could be implemented without significant changes by relying on the use of existing processes for an aggregator context. On the other hand, many actions in Tier III are more narrowly designed to address aggregators specifically, but often require more significant changes including the involvement of additional parties through stakeholder engagement or legislative action. In some cases, these tiers are discrete. However, state regulators may also choose to progress through these various tiers sequentially as they phase in aggregators while learning from their experience. With the ability to stack bulk system level services, distributed energy resource aggregations in MISO and SPP could provide various private benefits (e.g., increased value streams to the owner) as well as societally beneficial grid services (e.g., peaking capacity, ancillary services, and other services that increase the grid’s overall operational efficiency). In deciding how to best to enable these benefits, states and retail regulators must weigh various tradeoffs if considering reversing a previous opt out.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spitzer Variability Properties of Low-gravity L Dwarfs

We present Spitzer Space Telescope variability monitoring observations of three low-gravity L dwarfs with previous detections of variability in the near-IR: 2MASS J0045+16, 2MASS J0501–00, and 2MASS J1425–36. We detect significant periodic variability in two of our targets, 2MASS J0045+16 and 2MASS J0501–00. We do not detect variability in 2MASS J1425–36. Combining our new rotation periods with rotational velocities, we calculate inclination angles of 22° ± 1°, 60{sub -8}{sup +13°}, and 52{sub -13}{sup +19°} for 2MASS J0045+16, 2MASS J0501–00, and 2MASS J1425–36, respectively. Our three new objects are consistent with the tentative relations between inclination, amplitude, and color anomaly previously reported. Objects with the highest variability amplitudes are inclined equator on, while the maximum observed amplitude decreases as the inclination angle decreases. We also find a correlation between the inclination angle and (J–K){sub 2MASS} color anomaly for the sample of objects with measured inclinations. Compiling the entire sample of brown dwarfs with Spitzer variability detections, we find no enhancement in amplitude for young, early-L dwarfs compared to the field dwarf population. We find a possible enhancement in amplitude of low-gravity late-L dwarfs at 4.5 μm. We do not find a correlation between amplitude ratio and spectral type for field dwarfs or for the young population. Finally, we compile the rotation periods of a large sample of brown dwarfs with ages 1 Myr–1 Gyr and compare the rotation rates predicted by evolutionary models assuming angular momentum conservation. We find that the rotation rates of the current sample of brown dwarfs fall within the expected range set by evolutionary models and breakup limits.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long-term variability in immersion-mode marine ice-nucleating particles from climate model simulations and observations

Abstract. Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in the Southern Ocean (SO) atmosphere have significant impacts on cloud radiative and microphysical properties. Yet, INP prediction skill in climate models remains poorly understood, in part because of the lack of long-term measurements. Here we show, for the first time, how model-simulated INP concentrations compare with year-round INP measurements during the Macquarie Island Cloud Radiation Experiment (MICRE) campaign from 2017–2018. We simulate immersion-mode INP concentrations using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) by combining simulated aerosols with recently developed deterministic INP parameterizations and the native classical nucleation theory (CNT) for mineral dust in E3SMv1. Because MICRE did not collect aerosol measurements of super-micron particles, which are more effective ice nucleators, we evaluate the model's aerosol fields at other high-latitude sites using long-term in situ observations of dust and sea spray aerosol. We find that the model underestimates dust and overestimates sea spray aerosol concentrations by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude for most of the high-latitude sites in the Southern Hemisphere. We next compare predicted INP concentrations with concentrations of INPs collected on filter samples (typically for 2 or 3 d) and processed offline using the Colorado State University ice spectrometer (IS) in immersion freezing mode. We find that when deterministic parameterizations for both dust and sea spray INPs are used, simulated INPs are within a factor of 10 of observed INPs more than 60 % of the time during summer. Our results also indicate that the E3SM's current treatment of mineral dust immersion freezing in the SO is impacted by compensating biases – an underprediction of dust amount was compensated by an overprediction of its effectiveness as INPs. We also perform idealized droplet freezing experiments to quantify the implications of the time-dependent behavior assumed by the E3SM's CNT-parameterization and compare with the ice spectrometer observations. We find that the E3SM CNT 10 s diagnostic used in this study is a reasonable approximation of the exact formulation of CNT, when applied to ice spectrometer measurements in low-INP conditions similar to Macquarie Island. However, the linearized 10 s diagnostic underestimates the exact formula by an order of magnitude or more in places with high-INP conditions like the Sahara. Overall, our findings suggest that it is important to correct the biases in E3SM's simulated dust life cycle and update E3SM's INP parameterizations. INP prediction errors of 2 to 3 orders of magnitude can have considerable impacts on the simulated cloud and radiative properties in global climate models. On comparing INP concentrations during MICRE against ship-based campaigns, Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) and Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition (ACE), we find that INPs from the latter are significantly higher only in regions closer to Macquarie Island. This alludes to the fact that physical, chemical and biological processes affecting INP concentrations as stimulated by the island could be partly responsible for the high INP concentrations observed at Macquarie Island during the MICRE campaign. Therefore, improvements to both aerosol simulation and INP parameterizations are required to adequately simulate INPs and their cloud impacts in E3SM. It will be helpful to include a parallel measurement of the size-resolved aerosol composition and explore opportunities for long-term measurement platforms in future field campaigns studying INP sources in remote marine regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018

In this study, we analyse the role of climate change in the forestfires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of 2018 from ameteorological perspective. This is done by studying the Canadian FireWeather Index (FWI) based on sub-daily data, both in reanalysis data sets(ERA-Interim, ERA5, the Japanese 55 year Reanalysis, JRA-55, and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2, MERRA-2) and three large-ensemble climatemodels (EC-Earth, weather@home, W@H, and Community Earth System Model, CESM) simulations. The FWI, based on reanalysis, correlates well with the observed burnt area in summer (r=0.6 to 0.8). We find that the maximum FWI in July 2018 had return times of ~24 years (90 % CI, confidence interval, > 10 years) for southern and northern Sweden. Furthermore, we find a negative trend of the FWI for southern Sweden over the 1979 to 2017 time period in the reanalyses, yielding a non-significant reduced probability of such an event. However, the short observational record, large uncertainty between the reanalysis products and large natural variability of the FWI give a large confidence interval around this number that easily includes no change, so we cannot draw robust conclusions from reanalysis data. The three large-ensembles with climate models point to a roughly 1.1 (0.9 to 1.4) times increased probability (non-significant) for such events in the current climate relative to preindustrial climate. For a future climate (2 °C warming), we find a roughly 2 (1.5 to 3) times increased probability for such events relative to the preindustrial climate. The increased fire weather risk is mainly attributed to the increase intemperature. The other main factor, i.e. precipitation during summer months, isprojected to increase for northern Sweden and decrease for southern Sweden. We, however, do not find a clear change in prolonged dry periods in summer months that could explain the increased fire weather risk in the climate models. In summary, we find a (non-significant) reduced probability of such eventsbased on reanalyses, a small (non-significant) increased probability due to global warming up to now and a more robust (significant) increase in the risk for such events in the future based on the climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Meltwater runoff and glacier mass balance in the high Arctic: 1991–2022 simulations for Svalbard

The Arctic is undergoing increased warming compared to the global mean, which has major implications for freshwater runoff into the oceans from seasonal snow and glaciers. Here, we present high-resolution (2.5 km) simulations of glacier mass balance, runoff, and snow conditions on Svalbard from 1991–2022, one of the fastest warming regions in the world. The simulations are created using the CryoGrid community model forced by Copernicus Arctic Regional ReAnalysis (CARRA) (1991–2021) and AROME-ARCTIC forecasts (2016–2022). Updates to the water percolation and runoff schemes are implemented in the CryoGrid model for the simulations. In situ observations available for Svalbard, including automatic weather station data, stake measurements, and discharge observations, are used to carefully evaluate the quality of the simulations and model forcing. We find a slightly negative climatic mass balance (CMB) over the simulation period of -0.08 mw.e.yr -1 but with no statistically significant trend. The most negative annual CMB is found for Nordenskiöldland (-0.73 mw.e.yr -1 ), with a significant negative trend of -0.27 mw.e. per decade for the region. Although there is no trend in the annual CMB, we do find a significant increasing trend in the runoff from glaciers of 0.14 mw.e. per decade. The average runoff was found to be 0.8 mw.e.yr -1 . We also find a significant negative trend in the refreezing of -0.13 mw.e. per decade. Using AROME-ARCTIC forcing, we find that 2021/22 has the most negative CMB and highest runoff over the 1991–2022 simulation period investigated in this study. We find the simulated climatic mass balance and runoff using CARRA and AROME-ARCTIC forcing are similar and differ by only 0.1 mw.e.yr -1 in climatic mass balance and by 0.2 mw.e.yr -1 in glacier runoff when averaged over all of Svalbard. There is, however, a clear difference over Nordenskiöldland, where AROME-ARCTIC simulates significantly higher mass balance and significantly lower runoff. This indicates that AROME-ARCTIC may provide similar high-quality predictions of the total mass balance of Svalbard as CARRA, but regional uncertainties should be taken into consideration. The simulations produced for this study are made publicly available at a daily and monthly resolution, and these high-resolution simulations may be re-used in a wide range of applications including studies on glacial runoff, ocean currents, and ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncovering the Size-dependent Thermal Solid Transformation of Akaganéite

Investigating the structural evolution and phase transformation of iron oxides is crucial for gaining a deeper understanding of geological changes on diverse planets and preparing oxide materials suitable for industrial applications. In this study, we employed in-situ heating techniques in conjunction with transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observations and ex-situ characterization to thoroughly analyze the thermal solid-phase transformation of akaganéite one-dimensional (1D) nanostructures with varying diameters. Our findings offer compelling evidence for a size-dependent morphology evolution in akaganéite 1D nanostructures, which can be attributed to the transformation from akaganéite to maghemite (?-Fe2O3) and subsequent crystal growth. Specifically, we observed that akaganéite nanorods with a diameter of around 50 nm transformed into hollow polycrystalline maghemite nanorods, which demonstrated remarkable stability without arresting crystal growth under continuous heating. In contrast, smaller akaganéite nanoneedles or nanowires with a diameter ranging from 20 to 8 nm displayed a propensity for forming single-crystal nanoneedles or nanowires through phase transformation and densification. By manipulating the size of the precursors, we have developed a straightforward method for the synthesis of single-crystal and polycrystalline maghemite nanowires through solid-phase transformation. These significant findings provide new insights into the size-dependent structural evolution and phase transformation of iron oxides at the nanoscale.

Wang, Xiang↗
DOE OSTI2022

An independent analysis of bias sources and variability in wind plant pre-construction energy yield estimation methods

The wind resource assessment community has long had the goal of reducing the bias between wind plant pre-construction energy yield assessment (EYA) and the observed annual energy production (AEP). This comparison is typically made between the 50% probability of exceedance (P50) value of the EYA and the long-term corrected operational AEP (hereafter OA P50), and is known as the P50 bias. The industry has critically lacked an independent analysis of bias reduction investigated across multiple consultants to identify the greatest sources of uncertainty and variance in the EYA process and the best opportunities for uncertainty reduction. The present study addresses this gap by benchmarking consultant methodologies against each other and against operational data at a scale not seen before in industry collaborations. We consider data from 10 wind plants and evaluate discrepancies between eight consultancies in the steps taken from estimates of gross to net energy. Consultants tend to overestimate the gross energy produced at the turbines and then compensate by further overestimating downstream losses, leading to a mean P50 bias near zero, still with significant variability among the individual wind plants. Within our data sample, we find that consultant estimates of all loss categories, except environmental losses, tend to reduce the project-to-project variability of the P50 bias. The disagreement between consultants, however, remains flat throughout the addition of losses. Finally, we find that differences in consultants’ estimates of project performance can lead to differences up to $10/MWh in the levelized cost of energy for a wind plant.

Todd, Austin C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Island for gravitationally prepared state and pseudo entanglement wedge

We consider spacetime initiated by a finite-sized initial boundary as a generalization of the Hartle-Hawking no-boundary state. We study entanglement entropy of matter state prepared by such spacetime. We find that the entanglement entropy for large subregion is given either by the initial state entanglement or the entanglement island, preventing the entropy to grow arbitrarily large. Consequently, the entanglement entropy is always bounded from above by the boundary area of the island, leading to an entropy bound in terms of the island. The island I is located in the analytically continued spacetime, either at the bra or the ket part of the spacetime in Schwinger-Keldysh formalism. The entanglement entropy is given by an average of complex pseudo generalized entropy for each entanglement island. We find a necessary condition of the initial state to be consistent with the strong sub-additivity, which requires that any probe degrees of freedom are thermally entangled with the rest of the system. We then find a large parameter region where the spacetime with finite-sized initial boundary, which does not have the factorization puzzle at leading order, dominates over the Hartle-Hawking no-boundary state or the bra ket wormhole. Due to the absence of a moment of time reflection symmetry, the island in our setup is a generalization of the entanglement wedge, called pseudo entanglement wedge. In pseudo entanglement wedge reconstruction, we consider reconstructing the bulk matter transition matrix on A ∪ I, from a fine-grained state on A. The bulk transition matrix is given by a thermofield double state with a projection by the initial state. We also provide an AdS/BCFT model by considering EOW branes with corners. We also find the exponential hardness of such reconstruction task using a generalization of Python’s lunch conjecture to pseudo generalized entropy.

2D gravity↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven wind turbine wake modeling via probabilistic machine learning

Wind farm design primarily depends on the variability of the wind turbine wake flows to the atmospheric wind conditions and the interaction between wakes. Physics-based models that capture the wake flow field with high-fidelity are computationally very expensive to perform layout optimization of wind farms, and, thus, data-driven reduced-order models can represent an efficient alternative for simulating wind farms. In this work, we use real-world light detection and ranging (LiDAR) measurements of wind-turbine wakes to construct predictive surrogate models using machine learning. Specifically, we first demonstrate the use of deep autoencoders to find a low-dimensional latent space that gives a computationally tractable approximation of the wake LiDAR measurements. Then, we learn the mapping between the parameter space and the (latent space) wake flow fields using a deep neural network. Additionally, we also demonstrate the use of a probabilistic machine learning technique, namely, Gaussian process modeling, to learn the parameter-space-latent-space mapping in addition to the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty in the data. Finally, to cope with training large datasets, we demonstrate the use of variational Gaussian process models that provide a tractable alternative to the conventional Gaussian process models for large datasets. Furthermore, we introduce the use of active learning to adaptively build and improve a conventional Gaussian process model predictive capability. Overall, we find that our approach provides accurate approximations of the wind-turbine wake flow field that can be queried at an orders-of-magnitude cheaper cost than those generated with high-fidelity physics-based simulations.

Deep neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bioenergy Technologies in Long-Run Climate Change Mitigation: Results from the EMF-33 Study

Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in long-run climate change mitigation strategies as highlighted by many integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios. These scenarios, however, also show a very wide range of results, with uncertainty about bioenergy conversion technology deployment and biomass feedstock supply. To date, the underlying differences in model assumptions and parameters for the range of results have not been conveyed. Here we explore the models and results of the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum to elucidate and explore bioenergy technology specifications and constraints that underlie projected bioenergy outcomes. We first develop and report consistent bioenergy technology characterizations and modeling details. We evaluate the bioenergy technology specifications through a series of analyses—comparison with the literature, model intercomparison, and an assessment of bioenergy technology projected deployments. We find that bioenergy technology coverage and characterization varies substantially across models, spanning different conversion routes, carbon capture and storage opportunities, and technology deployment constraints. Still, the range of technology specification assumptions is largely in line with bottom-up engineering estimates. We then find that variation in bioenergy deployment across models cannot be understood from technology costs alone. Important additional determinants include biomass feedstock costs, the availability and costs of alternative mitigation options in and across end-uses, the availability of carbon dioxide removal possibilities, the speed with which large scale changes in the makeup of energy conversion facilities and integration can take place, and the relative demand for different energy services.

bioenergy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chapter 4 - Recent Advances in Identification of Differential Equations from Noisy Data: IDENT Review

Differential equations and numerical methods are extensively used to model various real-world phenomena in science and engineering. With modern developments, we aim to find the underlying differential equation from a single observation of time-dependent data. If we assume that the differential equation is a linear combination of various linear and nonlinear differential terms, then the identification problem can be formulated as solving a linear system. The goal then reduces to finding the optimal coefficient vector that best represents the time derivative of the given data. We review some recent works on the identification of differential equations. We find some common themes for the improved accuracy: (i) The formulation of linear system with proper denoising is important, (ii) how to utilize sparsity and model selection to find the correct coefficient support needs careful attention, and (iii) there are ways to improve the coefficient recovery. We present an overview and analysis of recent developments on the topic.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗