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DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Model and Multi-Scale Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Controlling Processes of Complex Systems

An environmental model consists of multiple process level sub-models, and each sub-model represents a process that is key to the operation of the simulated system. Global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used to identify important processes for system model development and improvement. The existing methods of global sensitivity analysis only consider parametric uncertainty, and are not capable of handling model uncertainty caused by multiple process models that arise from competing hypotheses about one or more processes. To address this problem, this project develops a new method to probe model output sensitivity to competing process models by integrating model averaging methods with variance-based global sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty in process models and parameters. The new method yields three process sensitivity indices. The first one is called first-order process sensitivity index, and it is derived as a single summary measure of relative process importance. Evaluating the index is computationally expensive, because it relies in a Monte Carlo scheme that requires thousands and even millions of model executions. To reduce computational cost, this project develops a computationally efficient, quasi Monte Carlo method, and this method is presented in Chapter 2 of this report with and a numerical example for demonstration. The numerical example shows that the results of the quasi Monte Carlo method are substantially close to those of the full Monte Carlo method, but the computational cost of the quasi Monte Carlo method is only 0.7% of that of the full Monte Carlo method. The second index is called total-effect process sensitivity index, and it measures interactions between different processes. Therefore, this sensitivity index includes the first-order process sensitivity index, and can be used to identify influential processes. On the other hand, the total-effect process sensitivity index can also be used to screen non-influential processes. This is demonstrated by two numerical examples using the Sobol-G* functions and groundwater flow models that consider recharge process, geological process, and snowmelt process. The numerical examples shows that the total-effect process sensitivity index is more informative than the first-order process sensitivity. The derivation of the process sensitivity index and the numerical examples are discussed in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 presents two computationally efficient methods for screening non-influential processes to exclude them from further investigation. The two methods are the multi-model difference-based sensitivity (MMDS) analysis method, which can be implemented using the Latin Hypercube Sampling. The second one is the implementation of MMDS method using a binning method. The numerical example for the Sobol-G* function indicates the two methods are capable of identifying non-influential models, and the numerical examples for the groundwater flow and reactive transport show that the two methods are effective for groundwater problems. However, it should be noted that the two methods are numerical approximations, and they can only be used for screening non-influential processes, not for ranking importance of system processes. All the sensitivity analysis methods are implemented by developing python codes, and the codes are in a software called SAMMPY: a python package for process sensitivity analysis under multiple models. The SAMMPY design and structure are discussed in Chapter 5, and the package is released to the public for free download.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

High-fidelity multiphysics load following and accidental transient modeling of microreactors using NEAMS tools: Application of NEAMS codes to perform multiphysics modeling analyses of micro-reactor concepts

The feasibility of modeling microreactors using high-fidelity models with the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) tools is investigated in this report. Three overarching questions guided this research: can NEAMS tools readily be applied for high-fidelity multiphysics modeling of different types of transients in microreactor designs; how accurate are the results obtained; and are improvements needed in accuracy or user experience of NEAMS tools, especially considering newly developed capabilities? This work builds upon FY-2022 work, and two microreactor concepts considering heat pipe (HP-MR) and gas-cooled (GC-MR) technologies were further analyzed using high-fidelity multiphysics simulations. The NEAMS tools considered and coupled within the MultiApp environment are Griffin for neutronics, BISON for thermo-mechanics, Sockeye for heat pipe modeling (in HP-MR), SAM for 1D Fluid – 3D solid modeling of coolant channels and system modeling of balance of plant components (in GC-MR), and the SWIFT code for hydrogen redistribution in hydride moderator. The Heat Pipe MicroReactor (HP-MR) concept was further analyzed in FY-2023 to demonstrate the stochastic TRISO failure modeling capability in BISON to check operational limits of the TRISO fuel. A new full-core Gas-Cooled MicroReactor (GC-MR) model was developed based on the initial assembly-model used in Y-2022 and used for steady-state and accidental depressurization transient simulations. Accuracy of the simulations performed was assessed through 1) verification analyses completed on the different physics with code-to-code comparison, and 2) validation of the multiphysics simulations based on modeling of the Kilopower Reactor Using Stirling Technology (KRUSTY) experiment. In FY-2023, the mesh and model of KRUSTY was updated to closely match publicly available data, and the neutronic model was verified and validated against experimental control rod worth measurements. The multiphysics model of KRUSTY was developed and used for steady-state analysis and for modeling reactivity insertion transient. The calculated power increase and stabilization agrees well with experimental data following adjustment in fuel thermal expansion coefficient. As an important component of this project, the ANL team gathered experience with a wide range of NEAMS tools: the MOOSE Mesh System, Griffin, BISON, SWIFT, Sockeye, SAM, Workbench, and the MOOSE MultiApp System, and provided assessment of new capabilities. Noteworthy are the user assessment of the “vapor-only” flow model in Sockeye and development of a multiphysics startup transient in HP-MR unit cell for use as tutorial in Sockeye. The full-core GC-MR model was used for assessment of SAM for balance of plant modeling and for demonstrating the SWIFT code capability for hydrogen redistribution modeling in multiphysics transient analyses. In this process, several bugs/issues were identified and reported to developers. Finally, the assembly GC-MR model developed in FY-2022 coupling Griffin, BISON and SAM through flow blockage and rod ejection transients was published to the National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) Virtual Test Bed (VTB). The Heat Pipe MicroReactor (HP-MR) concept high-fidelity multiphysics coupling of Griffin/BISON/Sockeye in load-following and heat pipe failure transients was also published on the VTB. Those submissions are enabling thorough review of these models as well as wide distribution to industry, regulator, and university users. In this analysis, several new research questions were uncovered, and follow-up analyses are recommended to further improve some models, consider additional transients, and continue development of VTB models.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Limited Impact of Thwaites Ice Shelf on Future Ice Loss From Antarctica

Abstract Thwaites Ice Shelf (TWIS), the floating extension of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, is changing rapidly and may completely disintegrate in the near future. Any buttressing that the ice shelf provides to the upstream grounded Thwaites glacier will then be lost. Previously, it has been argued that this could lead to onset of dynamical instability and the rapid demise of the entire glacier. Here we provide the first systematic quantitative assessment of how strongly the upstream ice is buttressed by TWIS and how its collapse affects future projections. By modeling the stresses acting along the current grounding line, we show that they deviate insignificantly from the stresses after ice shelf collapse. Using three ice‐flow models, we furthermore model the transient evolution of Thwaites Glacier and find that a complete disintegration of the ice shelf will not substantially impact future mass loss over the next 50 years.

Gudmundsson, G. H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Transfer learning of neural surrogates on multifidelity groundwater simulations

Multifidelity data used in the paper published in Advances in Water Resources 206 (2025) 105140, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.105140 The code used to process the data is openly available on GitHub at https://github.com/Model-Reduction-and-UQ-Group/Transfer_Learning_K_reconstruction Computationally inexpensive surrogates of process-based models, such as deep neural networks, enable ensemble-based computations used in risk assessment, data assimilation, etc. However, generation of large datasets required to train a neural network can be as expensive as the ensemble simulations themselves. We ameliorate this challenge by using data from multifidelity (MF) groundwater simulations and transfer learning (TL) to reduce data generation costs while maintaining model accuracy. As a computational example, we train a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to reconstruct permeability fields from saturation maps derived from a multiphase flow model. Starting with very low- and low-fidelity data generated on increasingly coarse meshes, we pretrain the CNN, followed by output-layer training and fine-tuning using only a limited number of high-fidelity samples. We demonstrate the surrogate’s robustness when interpreting low-quality inputs—such as interpolated maps or data affected by noise—which has strong implications for the applicability in practical hydrogeological scenarios. This multilevel MF-TL strategy achieves a favorable trade-off between computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, significantly outperforming high-fidelity-only approaches under the same computational budget.

Chiofalo, Alessia [University of Bologna] (ORCID:0↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Short Survey of Current Reactive Burn Model Capabilities as of Mid-Year 2025

The authors were tasked with writing a concise memo (now a short report) that adequately addresses the current ``state-of-the-art'' in the field of reactive flow modeling and burn models for mid-year 2025, along with identifying some of the modeling gaps. It is assumed that the reader has experience with burn models and running hydrocode simulations, and thus every effort is made to ensure brevity, clarity, and utility, so that this document will serve as a quick and useful reference. Note that “mid-year” was used in the title, as it is possible that advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) may significantly impact the field before the year is over.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2023

Virtual Flow Solver - Geophysics: A 3D Incompressible Navier-Stokes Solver

Virtual Flow Solver - Geophysics (VFS-Geophysics) is a three-dimensional (3D) incompressible Navier-Stokes solver based on the Curvilinear Immersed Boundary (CURVIB) method. The CURVIB is a sharp interface type of immersed boundary (IB) method that enables the simulation of fluid flows in the presence of geometrically complex moving bodies. The CURVIB method can be applied to wind/MHK turbine simulations and energy applications. VFS-Geophysics is the result of many years of research work by several graduate students, post-docs, and research associates that have been involved in the Computational Hydrodynamics and Biofluids Laboratory directed by Professor Fotis Sotiropoulos. The preparation of the present manual has been supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DE-EE 0005482).

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

Material Control & Accounting Modeling Developments for a Generic TRISO Fuel Fabrication Facility

The Material Protection, Accounting, and Control Technologies (MPACT) program utilizes modeling and simulation to assess Material Control and Accountability (MC&A) concerns for a variety of nuclear facilities. The Sandia National Laboratories (SNL)-developed Fissile Facility Flow Modeler (F3M) and the Material Accountancy Performance Indicator Toolkit (MAPIT) have historically provided MPACT with the capability to analyze MC&A approaches for nuclear facilities to determine that these facilities meet regulatory requirements. In FY25, improvements on the application of the F3M and MAPIT tools to simulate a generic TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel fabrication facility were successfully completed. The generic TRISO fuel fabrication F3M model captures the entire TRISO fuel fabrication process and is adaptable to any final TRISO fuel form, including spherical pebbles and cylindrical compacts loaded into graphite prismatic blocks. Comprehensive F3M/MAPIT functionality for the generic TRISO fuel fabrication model has been demonstrated. This modeling framework can be applied to support the U.S. Department of Energy and domestic nuclear industry stakeholders in developing MC&A approaches for advanced fuel fabrication facilities via statistical tests that demonstrate compliance to regulatory requirements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sockeye Heat Pipe Analysis Code Verification and Validation

Some of the most promising microreactor designs currently under development utilize heat pipe technology to transfer heat from the reactor core to the secondary side heat exchanger, due to the technology’s compactness, efficiency, passivity, and reliability. Sockeye is an engineering-scale heat pipe tool developed under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Program to be used for the design and safety analysis of microreactors. Sockeye’s core capability lies in a 1D, two-phase, compressible flow model, used to simulate the working fluid inside the heat pipe. Sockeye is built on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment framework, which allows for seamless multiphysics coupling with other Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation tools and can thus be used in a full-scale simulation of a microreactor assembly, which can include hundreds of heat pipes. This paper presents some initial verification and validation assessments performed for Sockeye. We demonstrate good agreement between Sockeye’s numerical results and steady-state analytic solutions for velocity and pressure drop, with differences attributable to the underlying assumptions made by the analytic solutions. We also show that Sockeye reproduces analytic predictions of key operational limits, such as the capillary limit and the sonic limit. Finally, we compare Sockeye results to experimental data for the SAFE-30 heat pipe module test.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

OC7 Project Phase II: Code Comparison and Experimental Validation of Hydroelastic Effects and Member-Level Loads in Floating Structures

This paper presents results from Phase II of the OC7 project, focusing on hydroelastic modeling and member-level load prediction for a flexible floating offshore structure. Numerical predictions from 11 academic and industrial partners are validated against experimental measurements obtained from a 1:70-scale test of the VolturnUS-S semisubmersible platform. A comprehensive set of verification and validation cases is examined. The results demonstrate that hydrodynamic added mass has a significant impact on predicted elastic natural frequencies. Under regular wave excitation, the numerical models reproduce platform motions and mooring line tensions with good accuracy. Member-level loads are also predicted with reasonable accuracy. Some discrepancies are observed for potential-flow models not accounting for higher-order effects associated with the instantaneous wetted surface.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tractable Learning in Underexcited Power Grids

Estimating the structure of physical flow networks, such as power grids, is critical to secure delivery of energy. This article discusses statistical structure estimation in power grids in the “underexcited” regime, where a subset of internal nodes has zero injection fluctuations. Prior estimation algorithms based on nodal voltages fail for such grids as the voltage covariance matrix is not invertible. Here, we propose a novel topology learning algorithm for learning underexcited general networks. Our algorithm uses physics-informed conservation laws to first identify the zero-injection buses and their neighbors, and then estimates the remaining edges in the grid. We prove the asymptotic correctness of our algorithm for grids with nonadjacent internal zero-injection nodes. More important, we theoretically analyze our algorithm’s efficacy under noisy measurements, and determine bounds on maximum noise under which asymptotically correct recovery is guaranteed. Our approach is validated through simulations with voltage samples generated on test distribution grids with real injection data and nonlinear power flow models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Liquid lithium divertor analysis using coupled plasma material interaction model

A liquid lithium divertor can improve performance of future fusion devices by creating efficient power exhaust and improving the energy confinement via pumping of the hydrogen isotopes. In addition, significantly higher heat fluxes can be handled if controlled vapor shielding is used to redistribute the divertor heat flux over a wider area. Design and optimization of such a system calls for an analysis model which includes a strong two-way coupling between the plasma and divertor material. The incoming plasma heat and particle flux will affect the divertor surface temperature, which is a defining factor of the lithium evaporative and sputtered flux going into the plasma. Results of the coupled model based on the plasma edge code SOLPS-ITER and the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code ANSYS-CFX will be presented for different configurations. An analytical slab flow model is used as a heat transfer boundary condition for SOLPS, defining particle flux from the wall via calculation of the surface temperature. At the final step, results of the SOLPS analysis are verified using a 3D CFD magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) analysis which uses heat and particle flux from SOLPS as a boundary condition. In addition to plasma heat flux, both analytical and CFD temperature models include several plasma material interaction effects, such as lithium evaporation, condensation and sputtering based on deuterium target flux. New adatom sputtering model based on the available experimental data is presented. Analytical model is expanded to include free surface axisymmetric configurations. Results of parametric studies of the divertor configurations with different lithium inlet temperature and velocity will be presented leading to the optimal design resulting in the lowest possible lithium contamination in the core.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dataset for SIAM MPI23 Project "Model inversion for complex physical systems using low-dimensional surrogates"

Training and testing data for the SIAM MPI23 workshop "Model inversion for complex physical systems using low-dimensional surrogates". The data consists of ensembles of input and output pairs corresponding to queries of a 2D saturated groundwater flow model. The inputs consist of random vectors which map to discretized model parameter fields via a Kosambi-Karhunen-Loève expansion. Output corresponds to discretized pressure fields.

basis adaptation, conditional Karhunen-Loève expan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Graph-Augmented Normalizing Flows for Anomaly Detection of Multiple Time Series

Anomaly detection is a widely studied task for a broad variety of data types; among them, multiple time series appear frequently in applications, including for example, power grids and traffic networks. Detecting anomalies for multiple time series, however, is a challenging subject, owing to the intricate interdependencies among the constituent series. We hypothesize that anomalies occur in low density regions of a distribution and explore the use of normalizing flows for unsupervised anomaly detection, because of their superior quality in density estimation. Moreover, we propose a novel flow model by imposing a Bayesian network among constituent series. A Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) that models causal relationships; it factorizes the joint probability of the series into the product of easy-to-evaluate conditional probabilities. We call such a graph-augmented normalizing flow approach GANF and propose joint estimation of the DAG with flow parameters. We conduct extensive experiments on real-world datasets and demonstrate the effectiveness of GANF for density estimation, anomaly detection, and identification of time series distribution drift.

Dai, Enyan↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Comparative Study of Deep Learning Models for Fracture and Pore Space Segmentation in Synthetic Fractured Digital Rocks

This study focuses on the comparative study of deep learning (DL) models for pore space and discrete fracture networks (DFNs) segmentation in synthetic fractured digital rocks, specifically targeting low-permeability rock formations, such as shale and tight sandstones. Accurate characterization of pore space and DFNs is critical for subsequent property analysis and fluid flow modeling. Four DL models, SegNet, U-Net, U-Net-wide, and nested U-Net (i.e., U-Net++), were trained, validated, and tested using synthetic datasets, including input and label image pairs with varying properties. The model performance was assessed regarding pixel-wise metrics, including the F1 score and pixel-wise difference maps. In addition, the physics-based metrics were considered for further analysis, including sample porosity and absolute permeability. Particularly, We first simulated the permeability of porous media containing only pore space and then simulated the permeability of porous media with DFNs added. The difference between these two values is used to quantify the connectivity of segmented DFNs, which is an important parameter for low-permeability rocks. The pixel-wise metrics showed that the nested U-Net model outperformed the rest of the DL models in pore space and DFNs segmentation, with the SegNet model exhibiting the second-best performance. Particularly, nested U-Net enhanced segmentation accuracy for challenging boundary pixels affected by partial volume effects. The U-Net-wide model achieved improved accuracy compared to the U-Net model, which indicated the influence of parameter numbers. Similarly, nested U-Net has the closest match to the ground truth of physics-based metrics, including the porosity of pore space and DFNs, and the permeability difference quantifying the connectivity of DFNs. The findings highlight the effectiveness of DL models, especially the U-Net++ model with nested architecture and redesigned skip connections, in accurately segmenting pore spaces and DFNs, which are crucial for pore-scale fluid flow and transport simulation in low-permeability rocks.

Wang, Hongsheng↗

DOE OSTI2024

THM: the MOOSE thermal hydraulics module

The MOOSE Thermal Hydraulics Module (THM) is designed to facilitate the development of thermal hydraulic system models. It provides the capability to assemble networks of coupled components such as pipes, junctions, valves, turbomachinery, and heat exchangers. Its library of components supports a single-phase, compressible flow model based on a variable-area formulation of the Euler equations of gas dynamics and discretized using a finite volume scheme. THM offers a flexible system for specifying closures such as friction factors or heat transfer coefficients, allowing the user to choose from built-in correlations or define their own in the input file. A control logic system can be used to control input parameters, necessary for implementing transient scenarios and mirroring real control systems in thermal hydraulic systems. THM can be coupled with other MOOSE-based applications for multiphysics calculations. This talk will give an introduction to the capabilities of THM and provide some examples of its usage and validation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE Thermal-Hydraulics Module - MOOSE workshop

The MOOSE Thermal Hydraulics Module (THM) is designed to facilitate the development of thermal hydraulic system models. It provides the capability to assemble networks of coupled components such as pipes, junctions, valves, turbomachinery, and heat exchangers. Its library of components supports a single-phase, compressible flow model based on a variable-area formulation of the Euler equations of gas dynamics and discretized using a finite volume scheme. THM offers a flexible system for specifying closures such as friction factors or heat transfer coefficients, allowing the user to choose from built-in correlations or define their own in the input file. A control logic system can be used to control input parameters, necessary for implementing transient scenarios and mirroring real control systems in thermal hydraulic systems. THM can be coupled with other MOOSE-based applications for multiphysics calculations. This training will give an introduction to the capabilities of THM and provide some examples of its usage and validation.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing Impacts of Dry Coal Feeding in High Pressure Oxy-Coal Combustion Systems

Reaction Engineering International (REI) has managed a team of experts from the University of Utah, Southeast University (SEU) in Nanjing, China, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Corrosion Management Ltd. (C-M), Praxair, and Brigham Young University (BYU) to investigate dry pulverized coal feeding for pressurized oxy-coal combustion. Dry feed firing systems for entrained flow, pressurized, oxy-coal combustors have not been well developed, although related technologies have been used in the Shell Gasification Process and for pressurized fluid bed combustion. DOE-funded research recently completed at REI and the University of Utah focused on characterizing impacts of high temperatures and pressures in oxy-coal combustion systems. For high pressure combustion, that research used a coal slurry feed into a 17 bar pressurized combustor. As a consequence of that research, it was identified that fuel feeding and firing system flexibility are challenges that require attention. Based on that experience, the approach of using a coal slurry feed system leads to challenges in producing consistent atomization of the slurry, which causes burnout problems, especially at high pressures. In addition, slurry atomization processes may be difficult to scale to sizes appropriate for practical commercial use. Dry pressurized coal burner systems, on the other hand, have the potential to yield efficiency gains, improve flexibility and facilitate applications at larger scales. Experimental work was conducted at the University of Utah Industrial Combustion and Gasification Research Facility as well as the 100 kW pressurized oxy-coal combustor (POC) facility at Brigham Young University. Mechanism development and CFD-based combustion and dense-phase flow modeling were performed at REI. Successful completion of the project objectives has resulted in the following key deliverables: 1) Design and prototype of a pressurized pulverized coal feeding and oxy-firing system 2) Data from a 100kW, pressurized (15 bar) entrained flow reactor with a dry feeding delivery and burner system that describes flame characteristics, radiative heat flux profiles, carbon burnout, along with characteristics of ash aerosols, fouling, and slagging. 3) Validated and transportable models that describe the relevant conditions in pressurized oxy-combustion systems and that can be used for scale-up and optimization. 4) Principles to guide design of high pressure, pilot-scale and full-scale coal oxy-firing systems. 5) Assessment of pressurized oxy-combustion impacts on key parameters relevant to oxy-coal fired utility boilers such as coal devolatilization, char oxidation, mineral matter transformation, deposition, and corrosion. The experimental data, pressurized oxy-firing system principles, and process mechanisms provided by this work can be used by electric utilities, boiler OEMs, equipment suppliers, design firms, software vendors, consultants and government agencies to assess the use of high temperature and high pressure oxy-combustion in current research and to guide development of new oxy-coal boiler designs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing Impacts of Dry Coal Feeding in High Pressure Oxy-Coal Combustion Systems

pressurized oxy-coal combustion, sub-micron ash ae↗