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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Km‐Scale Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems Over South America—A Feature Tracker Intercomparison

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are clusters of thunderstorms that are important in Earth's water and energy cycle. Additionally, they are responsible for extreme events such as large hail, strong winds, and extreme precipitation. Automated object-based analyses that track MCSs have become popular since they allow us to identify and follow MCSs over their entire life cycle in a Lagrangian framework. This rise in popularity was accompanied by an increasing number of MCS tracking algorithms, however, little is known about how sensitive analyses are concerning the MCS tracker formulation. Here, we assess differences between six MCS tracking algorithms on South American MCS characteristics and evaluate MCSs in kilometer-scale simulations with observational-based MCSs over 3 years. All trackers are run with a common set of MCS classification criteria to isolate tracker formulation differences. The tracker formulation substantially impacts MCS characteristics such as frequency, size, duration, and contribution to total precipitation. The evaluation of simulated MCS characteristics is less sensitive to the tracker formulation and all trackers agree that the model can capture MCS characteristics well across different South American climate zones. Dominant sources of uncertainty are the segmentation of cloud systems in space and time and the treatment of how MCSs are linked in time. Our results highlight that comparing MCS analyses that use different tracking algorithms is challenging. We provide general guidelines on how MCS characteristics compare between trackers to facilitate a more robust assessment of MCS statistics in future studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Compositing and Characterization of SE Quadrant Waste Exemplars

This report outlines the experimental investigation and characterization of transport properties in Hanford SE quadrant High-Level Waste (HLW). The goal of the study was to establish baseline behaviors of bulk composite rheology and settling characteristics to facilitate waste treatment process design for the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) and avoid waste conditions and properties favorable to bubble cascade gas release events. The study focused on two major objectives: 1) identifying, obtaining, and preparing relevant Hanford tank waste samples for evaluation and 2) quantifying the “as-received” rheology and transport properties of the samples. Twenty-three centrifuged core segments originating from tanks AN-101, AN-106, and AW-105 were selected based on compositional relevance to SE quadrant PUREX cladding waste. These materials were composited into five waste composites enriched with target analytes: aluminum (Al), iron (Fe), phosphate (PO 4 ), uranium (U), and zirconium (Zr). Physical property and transport testing examined particle size distributions, bulk densities, settling behaviors, rheological properties, shear strengths, and just-suspended mixing speeds (NJS). Testing revealed two distinct composite classifications based on rheological characteristics: non-Newtonian composites (Fe and PO 4 ) and Newtonian composites (Al, U, and Zr). The Fe and PO 4 composites exhibited slow settling rates and reduced mobilization proclivity, attributable to strong particle-particle interactions and the formation of yield structures within non-Newtonian slurries. In contrast, the Al, U, and Zr composites displayed rapid settling and dense compaction behaviors, indicative of minimal structuring and interactions. Shear strengths for all composites were generally low relative to prior studies of SE quadrant waste, with only the U composite showing elevated strength approaching values reported in previous literature. Repeat shear strength measurements revealed contributions from dense granular material in the U composite and stronger cohesive properties in the Al composite. Settling data highlighted hindered settling behavior, with rates falling more than one order of magnitude below estimates based on Stokes’ law and rate decreasing as composite UDS content increased. NJS testing demonstrated different mobilization behaviors between cohesive and granular composites. The Fe composite required the highest mixing rate for resuspension, while the Al composite was the easiest to resuspend. Comparison of measured NJS against predictions made using the Zwietering correlation suggests non-Newtonian behavior alters resuspension mechanics, rendering non-Newtonian systems more stable against resuspension lift forces relative to their granular counterparts.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regime Characterization of Offshore Wind Resource Using Unsupervised Learning

Predictability of wind resource conditions is critical for offshore wind design and operations. While many studies of extreme wind conditions focus on specific events such as low-level jets or ramps, these rely on threshold definitions that limit generality. Here we present a data-driven framework that combines principal component analysis (PCA), self-organizing maps (SOM), and k-means clustering to classify wind resource conditions as typical and anomalous from climatological data. Anomalies are defined not by fixed thresholds but by flagging samples located far from SOM node centers inside the baseline SOM structure. This reframes extremes as rare ebents and hence, likely difficult to anticipate by numerical weather prediction models. We applied this approach to 23 years (2000–2022) of hourly profiles from the NOW-23 hindcast model at the Humboldt Wind Energy Area. Classification is conducted on a feature space consisting of 10 m wind speed and direction, bulk shear and veer across 30–270 m, and a low-level jet index. Dimensionality reduction is achieved through PC. A 2 × 3 OM lattice trained on the PCA vectors identified six baseline regimes spanning weak to strong flow states. High quantization-error profiles are identified and re-clustered into four anomalous regimes. The baseline regimes exhibited clear seasonal and diurnal cycles. Meanwhile, the anomalous regimes represented <10 % of all hours but showed distinct combinations of speed, shear, and veer, when compared to the baseline regimes. Anomalous regimes are typically short-lived (~few hours), yet their transitions can lead to hub-height wind changes of −18 to +9 m s -1 . For a representative 15 MW turbine, these shifts imply rapid swings in capacity factor from near-full output to negligible generation. Validation with lidar buoy data showed 51% agreement in SOM labels across ~6,000 overlapping hours, with most mismatches confined to adjacent speed classes. HRRR comparisons further revealed that anomalous regimes were disproportionately associated with forecast biases exceeding 5 m s -1 . Together, these results reframe extremes in offshore wind from absolute maxima or minima to weather states that are difficult to anticipate from models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Smart Methane Emission Detection System Development (Final Report)

Working with the Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory, Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®) developed a system to identify methane leaks reliably, accurately, and autonomously at critical midstream sections of the natural gas distribution network in real-time for the purpose of mitigating methane emissions using Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) cameras. SwRI's Smart Leak Detection – Methane (SLED/M) adds a high degree of automation to the process of methane leak detection to minimize sources of human error, minimize response time to a leak event, and maximize midstream visibility. Furthermore, SwRI has been working towards integrating Quantitative OGI (QOGI) capabilities into this existing technology. By leveraging Deep Learning, SwRI now has the capability to estimate fugitive emission leak rates quickly and reliably, which allows operators to detect emissions, quantify leak rate, prioritize repairs, and validate the repairs in a single instrument. The next generation QOGI technology leverages the same cameras used in Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) programs, with improvements in safety and speed for traditional quantification-based repairs, ultimately leading to less overhead cost for the operators. The goals for this research were to develop two types of models with the following goals: Run in real-time on the edge (≥ 12 Hz), Classification: Achieve less than 5% false positive detection, Classification: Achieve ≥ 95% methane plume detection rate, Regression: achieve ≤ 10 standard cubic feet per hour (scfh) prediction > 70% of the time. In order to achieve these results, multiple infrared (IR) and other sensors were investigated in tandem with the midwave IR (MWIR) OGI to provide additional information to train the underlying models. Information on atmospheric conditions including humidity, temperature, pressure, and solar radiation was provided by a weather station. Several machine learning and deep learning architectures and methods, including looking at quantized classification networks and regressions networks, were explored. As further data was collected, curated, and labeled, it allowed for more refined regressive networks to be adequately trained, leading to better insight into the true flow rates being observed. An important valuable deliverable of this research effort was the development of an advanced network which underwent multiple iterations capable of giving a continuous output. The current network has a predicted mean average percentage error (MAPE) of 12.3% just outside our target goal of 10.00%, but an accuracy of 97.78% at ±50 scfh, well within the overall goal for the Department of Energy (DOE) program. Upon closer inspection, it was observed that more than 10% of datapoints contributing to the MAPE predictions were the result of low flow rate predictions and are beyond the sensitivity of instrument measurement as a result of normal operational variation and noise.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

“Thought I’d Share First” and Other Conspiracy Theory Tweets from the COVID-19 Infodemic: Exploratory Study

Background: The COVID-19 outbreak has left many people isolated within their homes; these people are turning to social media for news and social connection, which leaves them vulnerable to believing and sharing misinformation. Health-related misinformation threatens adherence to public health messaging, and monitoring its spread on social media is critical to understanding the evolution of ideas that have potentially negative public health impacts. Objective: The aim of this study is to use Twitter data to explore methods to characterize and classify four COVID-19 conspiracy theories and to provide context for each of these conspiracy theories through the first 5 months of the pandemic. Methods: We began with a corpus of COVID-19 tweets (approximately 120 million) spanning late January to early May 2020. We first filtered tweets using regular expressions (n=1.8 million) and used random forest classification models to identify tweets related to four conspiracy theories. Our classified data sets were then used in downstream sentiment analysis and dynamic topic modeling to characterize the linguistic features of COVID-19 conspiracy theories as they evolve over time. Results: Analysis using model-labeled data was beneficial for increasing the proportion of data matching misinformation indicators. Random forest classifier metrics varied across the four conspiracy theories considered (F1 scores between 0.347 and 0.857); this performance increased as the given conspiracy theory was more narrowly defined. We showed that misinformation tweets demonstrate more negative sentiment when compared to non-misinformation tweets and that theories evolve over time, incorporating details from unrelated conspiracy theories as well as real-world events. Conclusions: Although we focus here on health-related misinformation, this combination of approaches is not specific to public health and is valuable for characterizing misinformation in general, which is an important first step in creating targeted messaging to counteract its spread. Initial messaging should aim to preempt generalized misinformation before it becomes widespread, while later messaging will

5g↗
DOE OSTI2021

Smart Methane Emission Detection System Development (Final Report)

Working with the Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®) developed a system to identify methane leaks reliably, accurately, and autonomously at critical midstream sections of the natural gas distribution network in real- time for the purpose of mitigating methane emissions using Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) cameras. SwRI’s Smart Leak Detection – Methane (SLED/M) adds a high degree of automation to the process of methane leak detection to minimize sources of human error, minimize response time to a leak event, and maximize midstream visibility. Furthermore, SwRI has been working towards integrating Quantitative OGI (QOGI) capabilities into this existing technology. By leveraging Deep Learning, SwRI now has the capability to estimate fugitive emission leak rates quickly and reliably, which allows operators to detect emissions, quantify leak rate, prioritize repairs, and validate the repairs in a single instrument. The next generation QOGI technology leverages the same cameras used in Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) programs, with improvements in safety and speed for traditional quantification-based repairs, ultimately leading to less overhead cost for the operators. The goals for this research were to develop two types of models with the following goals: 1. Run in real-time on the edge (≥ 12 Hz) 2. Classification: Achieve less than 5% false positive detection 3. Classification: Achieve ≥ 95% methane plume detection rate 4. Regression: achieve ≤ 10 standard cubic feet per hour (scfh) prediction > 70% of the time In order to achieve these results, multiple infrared (IR) and other sensors were investigated in tandem with the midwave IR (MWIR) OGI to provide additional information to train the underlying models. Information on atmospheric conditions including humidity, temperature, pressure, and solar radiation was provided by a weather station. Several machine learning and deep learning architectures and methods, including looking at quantized classification networks and regressions networks, were explored. As further data was collected, curated, and labeled, it allowed for more refined regressive networks to be adequately trained, leading to better insight into the true flow rates being observed. An important valuable deliverable of this research effort was the development of an advanced network which underwent multiple iterations capable of giving a continuous output. The current network has a predicted mean average percentage error (MAPE) of 12.3% just outside our target goal of 10.00%, but an accuracy of 97.78% at ±50 scfh, well within the overall goal for the Department of Energy (DOE) program. Upon closer inspection, it was observed that more than 10% of datapoints contributing to the MAPE predictions were the result of low flow rate predictions and are beyond the sensitivity of instrument measurement as a result of normal operational variation and noise.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Track Seeding and Labelling with Embedded-space Graph Neural Networks

To address the unprecedented scale of HL-LHC data, the Exa.TrkX project is investigating a variety of machine learning approaches to particle track reconstruction. The most promising of these solutions, graph neural networks (GNN), process the event as a graph that connects track measurements (detector hits corresponding to nodes) with candidate line segments between the hits (corresponding to edges). Detector information can be associated with nodes and edges, enabling a GNN to propagate the embedded parameters around the graph and predict node-, edge- and graph-level observables. Previously, message-passing GNNs have shown success in predicting doublet likelihood, and we here report updates on the state-of-the-art architectures for this task. In addition, the Exa.TrkX project has investigated innovations in both graph construction, and embedded representations, in an effort to achieve fully learned end-to-end track finding. Hence, we present a suite of extensions to the original model, with encouraging results for hitgraph classification. In addition, we explore increased performance by constructing graphs from learned representations which contain non-linear metric structure, allowing for efficient clustering and neighborhood queries of data points. We demonstrate how this framework fits in with both traditional clustering pipelines, and GNN approaches. The embedded graphs feed into high-accuracy doublet and triplet classifiers, or can be used as an end-to-end track classifier by clustering in an embedded space. A set of post-processing methods improve performance with knowledge of the detector physics. Finally, we present numerical results on the TrackML particle tracking challenge dataset, where our framework shows favorable results in both seeding and track finding.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time Series Classification for Locating Forced Oscillation Sources

Here, this article presents a machine learning based time-series classification method for using synchrophasor measurements to locate the source of forced oscillation (FO) for fast disturbance removal. First, multivariate time series (MTS) matrices are constructed by the most informative measurements selected by sequential feature selection from each power plant. Then, the Mahalanobis matrix is trained such that the Mahalanobis distance between the MTSs from the same class (i.e., with the same FO source location) are minimized and from different classes (i.e., with different FO source locations) are maximized. This allows MTSs to be classified by classifiers with class membership corresponding to the location of each FO source. To meet the runtime requirements of online matching, class templates are constructed to reduce data size and improve matching efficiency. To account for uncertainty in identifying the exact beginning of an FO event, dynamic time warping is used to align the out-of-sync MTSs. IEEE 39bus and WECC 179bus systems are used for algorithm development and validation. Simulation results demonstrate that the algorithm meets online operation runtime requirement with high accuracy using misaligned data sets.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neutrino interaction vertex reconstruction in DUNE with Pandora deep learning

The Pandora Software Development Kit and algorithm libraries perform reconstruction of neutrino interactions in liquid argon time projection chamber detectors. Pandora is the primary event reconstruction software used at the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment, which will operate four large-scale liquid argon time projection chambers at the far detector site in South Dakota, producing high-resolution images of charged particles emerging from neutrino interactions. While these high-resolution images provide excellent opportunities for physics, the complex topologies require sophisticated pattern recognition capabilities to interpret signals from the detectors as physically meaningful objects that form the inputs to physics analyses. A critical component is the identification of the neutrino interaction vertex. Subsequent reconstruction algorithms use this location to identify the individual primary particles and ensure they each result in a separate reconstructed particle. A new vertex-finding procedure described in this article integrates a U-ResNet neural network performing hit-level classification into the multi-algorithm approach used by Pandora to identify the neutrino interaction vertex. The machine learning solution is seamlessly integrated into a chain of pattern-recognition algorithms. The technique substantially outperforms the previous BDT-based solution, with a more than 20% increase in the efficiency of sub-1 cm vertex reconstruction across all neutrino flavours.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Graph theory inspired anomaly detection at the LHC

Designing model-independent anomaly detection algorithms for analyzing LHC data remains a central challenge in the search for new physics, due to the high dimensionality of collider events. In this work, we develop a graph autoencoder as an unsupervised, model-agnostic tool for anomaly detection, using the LHC Olympics dataset as a benchmark. By representing jet constituents as a graph, we introduce a method to systematically control the information available to the model through sparse graph constructions that serve as physically motivated inductive biases. Specifically, (1) we construct graph autoencoders based on locally rigid Laman graphs and globally rigid unique graphs, and (2) we explore the clustering of jet constituents into subjets to interpolate between high- and low-level input representations. We obtain the best performance, measured in terms of the Significance Improvement Characteristic curve for an intermediate level of subjet clustering and certain sparse unique graph constructions. We further investigate the role of graph connectivity in jet classification tasks. Our results demonstrate the potential of leveraging graph-theoretic insights to refine and increase the interpretability of machine learning tools for collider experiments.

Automation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identifying Different Classes of Seismic Noise Signals Using Unsupervised Learning

Abstract Proper classification of nontectonic seismic signals is critical for detecting microearthquakes and developing an improved understanding of ongoing weak ground motions. We use unsupervised machine learning to label five classes of nonstationary seismic noise common in continuous waveforms. Temporal and spectral features describing the data are clustered to identify separable types of emergent and impulsive waveforms. The trained clustering model is used to classify every 1 s of continuous seismic records from a dense seismic array with 10–30 m station spacing. We show that dominate noise signals can be highly localized and vary on length scales of hundreds of meters. The methodology demonstrates the complexity of weak ground motions and improves the standard of analyzing seismic waveforms with a low signal‐to‐noise ratio. Application of this technique will improve the ability to detect genuine microseismic events in noisy environments where seismic sensors record earthquake‐like signals originating from nontectonic sources.

Johnson, Christopher W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

What Machine Learning Can and Cannot Do for Inertial Confinement Fusion

Machine learning methodologies have played remarkable roles in solving complex systems with large data, well-defined input–output pairs, and clearly definable goals and metrics. The methodologies are effective in image analysis, classification, and systems without long chains of logic. Recently, machine-learning methodologies have been widely applied to inertial confinement fusion (ICF) capsules and the design optimization of OMEGA (Omega Laser Facility) capsule implosion and NIF (National Ignition Facility) ignition capsules, leading to significant progress. As machine learning is being increasingly applied, concerns arise regarding its capabilities and limitations in the context of ICF. ICF is a complicated physical system that relies on physics knowledge and human judgment to guide machine learning. Additionally, the experimental database for ICF ignition is not large enough to provide credible training data. Most researchers in the field of ICF use simulations, or a mix of simulations and experimental results, instead of real data to train machine learning models and related tools. They then use the trained learning model to predict future events. This methodology can be successful, subject to a careful choice of data and simulations. However, because of the extreme sensitivity of the neutron yield to the input implosion parameters, physics-guided machine learning for ICF is extremely important and necessary, especially when the database is small, the uncertain-domain knowledge is large, and the physical capabilities of the learning models are still being developed. In this work, we identify problems in ICF that are suitable for machine learning and circumstances where machine learning is less likely to be successful. This study investigates the applications of machine learning and highlights fundamental research challenges and directions associated with machine learning in ICF.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Phylogenomics and the first higher taxonomy of Placozoa, an ancient and enigmatic animal phylum

Placozoa is an ancient phylum of extraordinarily unusual animals: miniscule, ameboid creatures that lack most fundamental animal features. Despite high genetic diversity, only recently have the second and third species been named. While prior genomic studies suffer from incomplete placozoan taxon sampling, we more than double the count with protein sequences from seven key genomes and produce the first nuclear phylogenomic reconstruction of all major placozoan lineages. This leads us to the first complete Linnaean taxonomic classification of Placozoa, over a century after its discovery: This may be the only time in the 21st century when an entire higher taxonomy for a whole animal phylum is formalized. Our classification establishes 2 new classes, 4 new orders, 3 new families, 1 new genus, and 1 new species, namely classes Polyplacotomia and Uniplacotomia; orders Polyplacotomea, Trichoplacea, Cladhexea, and Hoilungea; families Polyplacotomidae, Cladtertiidae, and Hoilungidae; and genus Cladtertia with species Cladtertia collaboinventa, nov. Our likelihood and gene content tree topologies refine the relationships determined in previous studies. Adding morphological data into our phylogenomic matrices suggests sponges (Porifera) as the sister to other animals, indicating that modest data addition shifts this node away from comb jellies (Ctenophora). Furthermore, by adding the first genomic protein data of the exceptionally distinct and branching Polyplacotoma mediterranea , we solidify its position as sister to all other placozoans; a divergence we estimate to be over 400 million years old. Yet even this deep split sits on a long branch to other animals, suggesting a bottleneck event followed by diversification. Ancestral state reconstructions indicate large shifts in gene content within Placozoa, with Hoilungia hongkongensis and its closest relatives having the most unique genetics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Failure diagnosis and trend‐based performance losses routines for the detection and classification of incidents in large‐scale photovoltaic systems

Abstract Fault detection and classification in photovoltaic (PV) systems through real‐time monitoring is a fundamental task that ensures quality of operation and significantly improves the performance and reliability of operating systems. Different statistical and comparative approaches have already been proposed in the literature for fault detection; however, accurate classification of fault and loss incidents based on PV performance time series remains a key challenge. Failure diagnosis and trend‐based performance loss routines were developed in this work for detecting PV underperformance and accurately identifying the different fault types and loss mechanisms. The proposed routines focus mainly on the differentiation of failures (e.g., inverter faults) from irreversible (e.g., degradation) and reversible (e.g., snow and soiling) performance loss factors based on statistical analysis. The proposed routines were benchmarked using historical inverter data obtained from a 1.8 MWp PV power plant. The results demonstrated the effectiveness of the routines for detecting failures and loss mechanisms and the capability of the pipeline for distinguishing underperformance issues using anomaly detection and change‐point (CP) models. Finally, a CP model was used to extract significant changes in time series data, to detect soiling and cleaning events and to estimate both the performance loss and degradation rates of fielded PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recovered supernova Ia rate from simulated LSST images

Aims.TheVera C. RubinObservatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will revolutionize time-domain astronomy by detecting millions of different transients. In particular, it is expected to increase the number of known type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) by a factor of 100 compared to existing samples up to redshift ∼1.2. Such a high number of events will dramatically reduce statistical uncertainties in the analysis of the properties and rates of these objects. However, the impact of all other sources of uncertainty on the measurement of the SN Ia rate must still be evaluated. The comprehension and reduction of such uncertainties will be fundamental both for cosmology and stellar evolution studies, as measuring the SN Ia rate can put constraints on the evolutionary scenarios of different SN Ia progenitors. Methods.We used simulated data from the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) Data Challenge 2 (DC2) and LSST Data Preview 0 to measure the SN Ia rate on a 15 deg 2 region of the “wide-fast-deep” area. We selected a sample of SN candidates detected in difference images, associated them to the host galaxy with a specially developed algorithm, and retrieved their photometric redshifts. We then tested different light-curve classification methods, with and without redshift priors (albeit ignoring contamination from other transients, as DC2 contains only SN Ia). We discuss how the distribution in redshift measured for the SN candidates changes according to the selected host galaxy and redshift estimate. Results.We measured the SN Ia rate, analyzing the impact of uncertainties due to photometric redshift, host-galaxy association and classification on the distribution in redshift of the starting sample. We find that we are missing 17% of the SN Ia, on average, with respect to the simulated sample. As 10% of the mismatch is due to the uncertainty on the photometric redshift alone (which also affects classification when used as a prior), we conclude that this parameter is the major source of uncertainty. We discuss possible reduction of the errors in the measurement of the SN Ia rate, including synergies with other surveys, which may help us to use the rate to discriminate different progenitor models.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

AT2025ulz and S250818k: Zooming in with the Hubble Space Telescope

AT2025ulz is an optical/near-infrared transient discovered during follow-up of the candidate gravitational wave (GW) event S250818k. Its young age (≲1 day), rapid decline, and strong color evolution over the first 48 hr classify it as a potential kilonova candidate. In this work, we present the results of our observing campaign, carried out with the Gran Telescopio Canarias and the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Although the early time evolution of AT2025ulz resembles some aspects of a kilonova, its rapid onset (∼3 hr after the GW trigger) and luminosity (a factor of ∼5 brighter than AT2017gfo in g band) are difficult to reproduce. Only a small subset of our kilonova models matches its multicolor light curve, and the inferred ejecta mass is uncomfortably large given the low chirp mass (≲0.87 M ⊙ ) of the GW candidate. HST observations place the transient within a nearby (z = 0.08489) spiral galaxy with ongoing star formation and measure a color (F336W − F160W ≈ 1.4 mag) that is too blue to match with a kilonova. Our data support the classification of AT2025ulz as a supernova, initially undergoing a shock-cooling phase and later entering its photospheric phase and spectroscopically identified via its broad absorption features.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Occultation of a Large Star by the Large Plutino (28978) Ixion on 2020 October 13 UTC

We observed the occultation of the star Gaia DR2 4056440205544338944 by (28978) Ixion. The event was observed from two Lowell Observatory sites, using the 4.3 m Lowell Discovery Telescope (LDT), near Happy Jack, AZ, USA, and a 0.32 m telescope co-mounted with the Titan Monitoring telescope on Lowell’s Mars Hill campus in Flagstaff, AZ. The LDT chord, at 44.86 s, was roughly 30% longer than the longest predicted possible chord. Under the assumption of a spherical body, Ixion’s fitted diameter D = 709.6 ± 0.2 km. The LDT light-curve profile was used to place an upper limit on the surface pressure P < 2 μbar on any possible atmosphere of Ixion. At the distance of Ixion, the occulted star had a fitted projected diameter of 19.25 ± 0.3 km assuming uniform disk illumination, giving a stellar angular diameter of 0.675 ± 0.010 mas. Using the Gaia EDR3 parallax of 0.565 mas, the stellar radius is 130{sub −17}{sup +20} R{sub ⊙}. The measured size is consistent with prior spectral classification of this star as a reddened mid-M giant. This is one of only a modest number of M5 III stars to have a directly measured diameter, and is more distant than most.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Macro-physical Properties of Shallow Cumulus from Integrated ARM Observations (Final Report)

Fair-weather shallow cumuli (ShCu) play an important role in many climate-related processes. Irregular geometry of ShCu and their strong temporal and spatial variability make it challenging to observe ShCu holistically and to represent them correctly in climate models. To improve ShCu parameterizations, information on both vertically and horizontally resolved cloud properties is required. Commonly, the vertically resolved cloud properties are provided by zenith pointing lidar-radar observations with a very narrow field of view (FOV). Thus, these “pencil-beam” properties may not be representative of a larger surrounding area. Limited number of areal-averaged cloud properties, such as fractional sky cover (FSC), are offered typically by wide-FOV observations. The main goal of our project was to integrate advantages of the narrow-FOV (vertical structure of clouds) and wide-FOV (spatial arrangement of clouds) observations for an improved characterization of single-layer ShCu observed at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site for an 18-yr period (2000-2017). There are four major accomplishments of our project, First, an updated operational cloud classification for days with ShCu has been suggested and evaluated through a detailed comparison with the manually curated records. Our classification extends successfully the latest ARM cloud type Value Added Product (VAP) based on the Active Remote Sensing of Clouds (ARSCL) cloud product by incorporating both cloud fraction (CF) provided by narrow-FOV ceilometer data and FSC from wide-FOV images offered by a Total Sky Imager (TSI). Moreover, our classification allows one to identify impact of instrumentation changes at the SGP site, namely the transition to KAZRARSCL with the updated cloud radar, on the identification of periods with single-layer ShCu. Second, a new approach that resolves cloud area distributions for a given region (up to 4x4 km 2 ) has been suggested and cloud equivalent diameters (CEDs) have been estimated for the first time. These estimations have been performed over a wide range of cloud sizes (about 0.01–3.5 km) with high temporal resolution (30s) using wide-FOV TSI images and cloud base height (CBH) provided by complementary narrow-FOV lidar measurements. Our simple and computationally inexpensive approach offers a previously unavailable dataset for process studies in the convective boundary layer and evaluation of ShCu parameterizations in cloud-resolving models. Third, a long-term integrated record of ShCu macrophysical properties has been developed. The developed record represents the longest available compilation of events with ShCu and includes (i) a novel visualization of the spatial variability in cloud cover both along- and across-wind directions, (ii) updated estimates of narrow-FOV CF and wide-FOV FSC, (iii) updated narrow-FOV CBH, and (iv) complementary data, such as wind speed and direction from the 915-MHz Radar Wind Profiler (RWP) data. The developed record has been used successfully to assess conventional observational estimates of cloud cover and their sensitivity to the following two factors: (i) instrument-dependent cloud detection and data merging criteria and (ii) FOV configuration. Fourth, co-variability of the ShCu macrophysical properties and environmental parameters has been analyzed for a 3-yr period (2016-2018). Our initial analysis includes diurnal changes of FSCs obtained for clouds with small, moderate and large CEDs and several environmental parameters, such as lifted condensation level (LCL) and mixed layer height (zi). Preliminary results of our analysis suggest that the horizontal extent of ShCu is controlled substantially by the sign and magnitude of difference between these two parameters (zi-LCL): the CED tends to grow with increase of this difference (zi exceeds LCL). We have initiated relationships between the ShCu and key atmospheric parameters that control both the development and evolution of ShCu using our new data product, which combines effectively the advantages of narrow-FOV data offered by zenith pointing cloud radars and lidars and wide-FOV TSI images. While the latest instrumentation at the ARM sites may address these challenging relationships in the future, we believe that the historical ARM data at the SGP site has not yet been fully utilized. Overall, our data product can be used by researchers working on a wide range of climate-related projects. These projects may include (i) a comprehensive evaluation of outputs from the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) and single-column models for their future improvement, (ii) the representativeness of “short-period” results obtained from the previous model and observational studies and (iii) the planning of future field campaigns with focus on improved understanding of the diurnal cycle of cumulus convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗