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At least 307 records · Page 17

Techno-Economic Case Study: Fermentation Cost Impacts from Selected Critical Material Attributes

This report summarizes analysis conducted to support a case study under the Feedstock-Conversion Interface Consortium (FCIC) focused on techno-economic analysis (TEA) modeling to quantify the economic implications of biomass hydrolysate substrate variability on fermentation performance and resultant biorefinery fuel yields. It is known that fermentation inhibitors or byproducts, as may either come from constituents in the biomass feedstock or imparted through biorefinery processing operations, can detrimentally impact fermentation rates and yields. However, it is often difficult to isolate fermentation impacts to individual components given the complex nature of biomass varying simultaneously in multiple attributes from one lot to another. For this study, we worked with FCIC researchers to obtain data on key fermentation performance metrics, namely productivity rates and conversion yields, across a number of material attribute species previously selected by the researchers as "critical" attributes which may be found in hydrolysate used as microbial carbon sources during fermentation. These data were run through TEA models to estimate resultant impacts on biorefinery economics, reported as minimum fuel selling price (MFSP). Overall, the trends in MFSP closely followed fuel yields, in turn tied to fermentation process yields and selectivity, with minimal economic impact from variations in fermentation productivity.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The Supercritical Pile GRB Model: The Prompt to Afterglow Evolution

The "Supercritical Pile" is a very economical GRB model that provides for the efficient conversion of the energy stored in the protons of a Relativistic Blast Wave (RBW) into radiation and at the same time produces - in the prompt GRB phase, even in the absence of any particle acceleration - a spectral peak at energy approx. 1 MeV. We extend this model to include the evolution of the RBW Lorentz factor Gamma and thus follow its spectral and temporal features into the early GRB afterglow stage. One of the novel features of the present treatment is the inclusion of the feedback of the GRB produced radiation on the evolution of Gamma with radius. This feedback and the presence of kinematic and dynamic thresholds in the model can be the sources of rich time evolution which we have began to explore. In particular. one can this may obtain afterglow light curves with steep decays followed by the more conventional flatter afterglow slopes, while at the same time preserving the desirable features of the model, i.e. the well defined relativistic electron source and radiative processes that produce the proper peak in the (nu)F(sub nu), spectra. In this note we present the results of a specific set of parameters of this model with emphasis on the multiwavelength prompt emission and transition to the early afterglow.

Mastichiadis, A.↗

A Bulk Comptonization Model for the Prompt GRM Emission

The "Supercritical Pile" is a very economical GRB model that provides for the efficient conversion of the energy stored in the protons of a Relativistic Blast Wave (RBW) into radiation and at the same time produces - in the prompt GRB phase, even in the absence of any particle acceleration - a spectral peak at energy approximately 1 MeV. We extend this model to include the evolution of the RBW Lorentz factor F and thus follow its spectral and temporal features into the early GRB afterglow stage. One of the novel features of the present treatment is the inclusion of the feedback of the GRB produced radiation on the evolution of Gamma with radius. This feedback and the presence of kinematic and dynamic thresholds in the model are sources of potentially very rich time evolution which we have began to explore. In particular, one can this way obtain afterglow light curves with steep decays followed by the more conventional flatter afterglow slopes, while at the same time preserving the desirable features of the model, i.e. the well defined relativistic electron source and radiative processes that produce the proper peak in the nu F(sub nu) spectra. In this note we present the results of a specific set of parameters of this model with emphasis on the multiwavelength prompt emission and transition to the early afterglow.

Kazanas, Demos↗

High Accuracy Coronagraph Flight Model For WFIRST–CGI Raw Contrast Sensitivity Analysis

A high-accuracy high-fidelity flight wavefront control (WFC) model is developed for detailed raw contrast sensitivity analysis of WFIRST-CGI. Built upon features of recently testbed validated model, it is further refined to combine a full Fresnel propagation diffraction model for high accuracy contrast truth evaluation, and an economical compact model for WFC purposes. Extensive individual raw contrast error sensitivities are evaluated systematically, both as known imperfections and as unknown calibration errors, for both spectroscopy mode and wide field-of-view mode with shaped pupil coronagraph. More than 90 distinct error items were identified, including system aberrations, optical misalignment, component manufacturing error, telescope interface related errors, etc. The result forms the basis for raw contrast error budget flow down to a sub-system level, where detailed specifications needed to aid in component design and manufacturing, mechanical alignment and instrument integration, and verification and validation operations. Evaluations are mostly automated, making it relatively easy for repeat runs of revised design or at new desired error quantity. Top error sensitivities and contrast floor contributors are discussed and several observations are noted.

Poberezhskiy, Ilya↗

STREAM: A technology planning and capacity expansion model for the industrial sector

The Strategic Technology Roadmapping and Energy, Environmental, and Economic Analysis Model—STREAM—is an optimization-based modeling tool and analysis framework to assist with strategic planning and technology investments of the industrial sector. This open-source framework is written in Julia using the JuMP package, which enables users to model future “pathways” for incumbent and future production technologies, costs, fuels and energy carriers, and energy and non-energy environmental impacts from industries as they transform in pursuit of a robust and competitive manufacturing sector. The model starts with an initial stock of industrial production technologies and assets at a facility level and then determines pathways that minimize cost, subject to an array of possible constraints on demand, market shares, environmental flows, and other exogenously specified operational considerations such as capacity utilization rates or regional energy costs. Key features of the framework include flexibility to model a wide range of industries and industrial technologies/processes at varying levels of granularity, ability to perform parametric sensitivity analyses, and ability to visualize model results using visualization objects.

capacity expansion↗

The Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and Visualization Framework: A Case Study of Wind Blade Circularity in Texas

Moving the current linear economy toward circularity is expected to have environmental, economic, and social impacts. Various modeling methods, including economic input-output modeling, life cycle assessment, agent-based modeling, and system dynamics, have been used to examine circular supply chains and analyze their impacts. This work describes the newly developed Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and Visualization (CELAVI) framework, which is designed to model how the impacts of supply chains might change as circularity increases. We first establish the framework with a discussion of modeling capabilities that are needed to capture circularity transitions; these capabilities are based on the fact that supply chains moving toward circularity are dynamic and therefore not at steady state, may encompass multiple industrial sectors or other interdependent supply chains and occupy a large spatial area. To demonstrate the capabilities of CELAVI, we present a case study on end-of-life wind turbine blades in the U.S. state of Texas. Our findings show that depending on exact process costs and transportation distances, mechanical recycling could lead to 69% or more of end-of-life turbine blade mass being kept in circulation rather than being landfilled, with only a 7.1% increase in global warming potential over the linear supply chain. We discuss next steps for framework development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Avista’s Shared Energy Economy Model Pilot: A Techno-economic Assessment

As part of the second round of the Washington Clean Energy Fund, Avista Corp received a $3.5 million matching grant in support of a shared energy economy project to test the integration of energy assets–from rooftop solar and battery storage to building energy management systems–that can be shared and used for multiple purposes. The goal of this project is to demonstrate how both the customer and the utility can benefit from this shared energy economy model and demonstrate that the electric grid can become more reliable, efficient, resilient, and flexible. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory was engaged by the U.S. Department of Energy and the Washington State Department of Commerce to work with Avista in assessing the benefits of the shared energy economy model. This report documents the techno-economic assessment of the shared energy economy model, including the definition of use cases and applications, collection and preparation of data and input parameters, development of modeling and optimization methods, and case studies and analysis results.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Visual Modeling for Complex System Valuation: Implementation Guidance

Within the Transactive Systems Program (TSP) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) the need to incorporate a valuation analysis design early within the research process of transactive energy systems led to development of a valuation methodology. This methodology allows the modeling of economic exchanges within a complex system and supports the evaluation of individual stakeholder economic outcomes in addition to systemwide costs and benefits. The use of visual modeling practices enables the research team to reach common understanding and agreement on the analysis design within the complex system. While this methodology was developed for the valuation of transactive energy systems, it can be applied to any complex system where a granular economic analysis is desired. It allows for the inclusion of equity analyses and ties individual activities and microeconomic outcomes with the systemwide macroeconomic impacts. This document serves as implementation guidance for analysts planning to deploy the methodology within a research study. The appendixes provide specific guidance on how this methodology is deployed within the TSP at PNNL for analysts seeking guidance for deployment within that context.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Enabling energy‐efficient manufacturing of pharmaceutical solid oral dosage forms via integrated techno‐economic analysis and advanced process modeling

Abstract The global pharmaceutical industry is a trillion‐dollar market. However, the pharmaceutical sector often lags in manufacturing innovation and automation which limits its potential to maximize energy efficiency. The integration of techno‐economic analysis (TEA) with advanced process models as part of an overarching smart manufacturing platform, can help industries create business models, which can be adapted for manufacturing to reduce energy consumption and operating costs while ensuring product quality which can further enable a more sustainable process operation. In this study, a rational design of experiment on three unit‐operations (wet granulation, drying, and milling) was performed on a batch (case 1) and continuous (case 2) pharmaceutical process to obtain experimental data. Process models for predicting product quality and energy efficiency of each of the three‐unit operations were developed. The experimental data were used to validate the models and good agreement was observed. The energy consumption of each unit operation was calculated using statistical models relating the power consumption and the process parameters. The developed process models and energy models were further integrated into a TEA framework, which quantified the energy and monetary cost of manufacturing for both batch and continuous manufacturing cases. With this integrated framework, energy costs savings of ~33% was obtained in the continuous manufacturing process (case 2) over the batch process (case 1).

Sampat, Chaitanya↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of Synthetic Fuels Pathways Integrated with Light Water Reactors

The purpose of this work is to identify, model, perform techno-economic analysis, and compare two possible synfuel production routes utilizing CO 2 as the feedstock. Heat from an LWR nuclear plant is integrated wherever possible to positively affect the economics of the LWR by converting power to fuels during times of low grid electricity demand. Process and economic modeling for a conceptual synfuel production plant co-located (or in near proximity) with an LWR is presented, including the cost of CO 2 captured from an ethanol plant, compressed, and transported to the LWR hybrid plant, co-electrolysis of the CO 2 with water in a solid oxide electrolyzing cell (SOEC) system to produce syngas, and thermocatalytic conversion of the syngas to transportation fuel. The hybrid LWR/synfuels plant is assumed to be located within 50–150 miles of an ethanol plant (e.g., located in the midwest region of the United States). Performance and nth-plant economics for the co-electrolysis-based processes are evaluated and compared with biomass-gasification-based technology for the synfuel routes considered. Sensitivity analysis around the price of CO 2 and electricity, two of the major cost drivers, is presented for each case. Consideration of a carbon credit is also included in the sensitivity analysis.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Dispatch optimization of a concentrating solar power system under uncertain solar irradiance and energy prices

The integration of thermal energy storage into a concentrating solar power system allows for mitigating some of the risk associated with uncertain solar irradiance and uncertain energy prices. We solve a 48 h dispatch optimization model with continually updated conditional point forecasts of both direct normal irradiance (DNI) and electricity prices with a rolling-horizon scheme at hourly resolution over the course of a year. Joint, conditional forecasts for DNI and prices are formed using an autoregressive moving-average time series model with exogenous weather predictors. We guide dispatch using a mixed-integer programming model, but in order to evaluate performance we use the System Advisor Model (SAM) of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. SAM is a techno-economic simulation model that accounts for plant thermodynamics with higher fidelity. Our conditional DNI forecasts improve annual revenue by 4%–12% over using historical forecasts based on data from previous years. Conditional price forecasts improve annual revenue by 6%–19% in the real-time market over analogous historical forecasts. Updating these forecasts every six hours, rather than every 24 h, further improves annual revenue by 5%–6%. Here, we also investigate a method that values terminal inventory in our dispatch optimization model, again when used in a rolling-horizon scheme.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Economic Analysis of Battery Energy Storage Systems Incorporating Uncertain Battery Model

A high-fidelity battery model is essential for precise economic analysis of battery energy storage systems (BESSs), but these models are computationally intensive. Heuristic models offer computational efficiency but compromise the accuracy of economic analysis results. We assess the impact of errors in heuristic battery models on economic analysis by utilizing open-circuit voltage (OCV) measurements from battery experiments.

Choi, Hyungjin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-↗

Intermountain West Energy Sustainability & Transitions Initiative: CO2 Transport and Geologic Storage Modeling Results

These resources provide the full set of cost modeling results and methods as part of the I-WEST Roadmap Initiative that were used to compile figures as part of the "Pathways to CO2 Utilization and Storage for the Intermountain West Region" chapter. The data were generated from a series of National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) cost models and relate to carbon dioxide (CO2) transport costs, CO2 enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) economics, and saline storage economics. These models were used to analyze various business cases given changes in technical and financial assumptions for the I-WEST region as a means to explore how these assumptions influence CO2 transport and storage costs, as well as to evaluate the effect of changing oil prices on the viability of CO2-EOR and the mass of CO2 stored via CO2-EOR. The accompanying report titled "Intermountain West Energy Sustainability & Transitions Initiative: CO2 Transport and Geologic Storage Modeling Results" provides a detailed overview on the models, assumptions, and parameters used in the modeling, as well as example results..

CO2 EOR costs,CO2 Storage Costs,CO2 transportation↗

Importance of suberin biopolymer in plant function, contributions to soil organic carbon and in the production of bio-derived energy and materials

Abstract Suberin is a hydrophobic biopolymer of significance in the production of biomass-derived materials and in biogeochemical cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we describe suberin structure and biosynthesis, and its importance in biological (i.e., plant bark and roots), ecological (soil organic carbon) and economic (biomass conversion to bioproducts) contexts. Furthermore, we highlight the genomics and analytical approaches currently available and explore opportunities for future technologies to study suberin in quantitative and/or high-throughput platforms in bioenergy crops. A greater understanding of suberin structure and production in lignocellulosic biomass can be leveraged to improve representation in life cycle analysis and techno-economic analysis models and enable performance improvements in plant biosystems as well as informed crop system management to achieve economic and environmental co-benefits.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Geospatial assessment of the economic opportunity for reforestation in Maryland, USA

Afforestation and reforestation have the potential to provide effective climate mitigation through forest carbon sequestration. Strategic reforestation activities, which account for both carbon sequestration potential (CSP) and economic opportunity, can provide attractive options for policymakers who must manage competing social and environmental goals. In particular, forest carbon pricing can incentivize reforestation on private land, but this may require landholders to forego other profits. Here, we utilize an ambitious geospatial approach to quantify economic opportunities for reforestation in the state of Maryland (USA) based on high-resolution remoting sensing, ecosystem modeling, and economic analysis. Our results identify spatially-explicit areas of economic opportunity where the potential revenue from forest carbon outcompetes the expected profit of existing cropland at the hectare scale. Specifically, we find that under a baseline economic scenario of 20 dollars per ton of carbon (5% rental rate) and decadal average crop profitability, a transition to forest on agricultural land would be more profitable than 23.2% of cropland in Maryland under a 20-year land-use commitment. Accounting for variations in carbon and crop pricing, 5.5% to 55.4% of cropland would be immediately outcompeted by expected forest carbon revenue, with the potential for an additional 0.5% to 10.6% of outcompeted cropland within 20 years. Under the baseline economic scenario, an annual allocation of $5.8 million towards a carbon rental program could protect 6.93 Tg C (2.2% of the state’s total CSP) on reforested croplands. This moderate yearly cost is equal to 9.7% of Maryland’s average annual auction proceeds from participation in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (between 2014-2018), and 19.3% of the average annual subsidy payments for corn, soy, and wheat allocated over the same period. This methodological approach may be useful for state governments, not-for-profit organizations, or regional climate initiatives interested in identifying strategic areas for reforestation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

WaterTAP3 Model Input Data for NAWI's Eight Source Water Baseline Analyses

This folder contains the input data for the WaterTAP3 model that was used for the eight NAWI (National Alliance for Water Innovation) source water baselines studies published in the Environmental Science and Technology special issue: Technology Baselines and Innovation Priorities for Water Treatment and Supply. There are also eight other separate DAMS submissions, one per source water, that include the model results for the published studies. In this data submission, all model inputs across the eight baselines are included. The data structure and content are described in a README.txt file. For more details on how to use the data in WaterTAP3 please refer to the model documentation and GitHub site found at "WaterTAP3 Github" linked in the submission resources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Carbon Utilization and Storage Partnership of the Western United States

This technical report documents research conducted under DOE Award No. DE-FE0031837 focused on evaluating the feasibility of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) systems in the central and western United States. The project integrated geologic characterization, reservoir simulation, infrastructure modeling, and economic analysis to assess CO₂ storage potential near industrial sources and develop strategies for transport and sequestration. The work included subsurface modeling, risk assessment, monitoring and verification (MRV) planning, and evaluation of regulatory pathways such as EPA Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI permitting and IRS 45Q tax credit eligibility. Results demonstrate the viability of multiple storage approaches, including saline formations, enhanced coalbed methane recovery, and basalt mineralization, supported by data-driven workflows and regional analyses. The project also produced permitting templates, technology transfer activities, and stakeholder engagement efforts to support deployment readiness. These findings contribute to the development of scalable, economically viable CCUS systems and provide a repeatable framework for future carbon management projects.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗