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At least 307 records · Page 17

Northern Hemisphere Snow Drought in Earth System Model Simulations and ERA5‐Land Data in 1980–2014

Abstract Low snow levels over the past few decades and predictions of a low‐to‐no snow future have spurred research into snow droughts, which pose a threat to water security and management. Systematic data‐model comparisons of snow drought have been lacking, hindering our understanding of the drivers of snow drought in the past. To address this gap, we analyzed snow drought events using standardized snow water equivalent index derived from monthly results of four numerical experiments using the E3SM Land Model (ELM) and ERA5‐Land data during the period of 1980–2014. Additionally, we compared snow drought duration calculated from models with those from the ERA5‐Land data during selected El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. The numerical experiments were conducted with ELM driven by two prescribed atmospheric forcings, and with the coupled land‐atmosphere configuration of E3SM with and without plant hydraulics scheme feedback. Analysis reveals that 20%–30% of snow droughts occur due to factors other than above‐normal temperature and low snowfall, such as low soil moisture, warm soil temperature, and low relative humidity, etc., especially in high latitudes (50° North). Furthermore, our study highlights the exacerbating effect of ENSO events on snow drought conditions in various regions, despite some discrepancies between model and ERA5‐Land results. We also identified limitations of the coupled land‐atmosphere models in our current configuration in capturing the spatial patterns of snow droughts. This study underscores the challenge of predicting and mitigating snow drought and the need for a comprehensive understanding of the factors contributing to snow drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) for Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery

Tropical cyclones are an important cause of forest disturbance, and major storms caused severe structural damage and elevated tree mortality in coastal tropical forests. Model capabilities that can be used to understand post-hurricane forest recovery are still limited. We use a vegetation demography model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES) to study the processes and the key factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery. We implemented hurricane-induced forest damage, including defoliation, structural biomass reduction, and tree mortality, performed ensemble model simulations, and used random forest feature importance. For the simulation in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico, we identified factors controlling the post-hurricane forest recovery, and quantified the sensitivity of key model parameters to the post-hurricane forest recovery. The results indicate a tendency for the Bisley forests to shift toward the light demanding plant functional type (PFT) when the pre-hurricane biomass between the light demanding and shade tolerant PFTs is nearly equal and forests experience hurricane disturbance with mortality >60% for both the two PFTs. Under more realistic conditions where the shade tolerant PFT is initially dominant, mortality >80% is required for a shift toward dominance of the light demanding PFT at Bisley. Hurricane mortality and background mortality are the two major factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery in simulations. This research improves understanding of the ELM-FATES model behavior associated with hurricane disturbance and provides guidance for dynamic vegetation model development in representing hurricane induced forest damage with varied intensities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning Driven Sensitivity Analysis of E3SM Land Model Parameters for Wetland Methane Emissions

Methane (CH 4 ) is globally the second most critical greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, contributing to 16%–25% of the observed atmospheric warming. Wetlands are the primary natural source of methane emissions globally. However, wetland methane emission estimates from biogeochemistry models contain considerable uncertainty. One of the main sources of this uncertainty arises from the numerous uncertain model parameters within various physical, biological, and chemical processes that influence methane production, oxidation, and transport. Sensitivity Analysis (SA) can help identify critical parameters for methane emission and achieve reduced biases and uncertainties in future projections. This study performs SA for 19 selected parameters responsible for critical biogeochemical processes in the methane module of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). The impact of these parameters on various CH 4 fluxes is examined at 14 FLUXNET- CH 4 sites with diverse vegetation types. Given the extensive number of model simulations needed for global variance-based SA, we employ a machine learning (ML) algorithm to emulate the complex behavior of ELM methane biogeochemistry. We found that parameters linked to CH 4 production and diffusion generally present the highest sensitivities despite apparent seasonal variation. Comparing simulated emissions from perturbed parameter sets against FLUXNET-CH 4 observations revealed that better performances can be achieved at each site compared to the default parameter values. This presents a scope for further improving simulated emissions using parameter calibration with advanced optimization techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape

Arctic warming is altering vegetation and carbon dynamics with global implications, yet Earth System Model (ESM) predictions in the Arctic remain highly uncertain, in part due to historically limited data for model parameterization and validation. As such, ESMs typically represent Arctic ecosystems in an oversimplified manner. Recently, nine plant functional types (PFTs) designed to realistically represent tundra vegetation were integrated into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) and parameterized using plot-scale observations from a single site. Additional evaluation was needed to determine their transferability across the Arctic. Here, in this study, we evaluated whether refined representation of tundra vegetation improved model accuracy by conducting spatially explicit 100 × 100 m resolution ELM simulations on Alaska's Seward Peninsula. Simulations with the default two-PFT configuration and with the nine Arctic-specific PFTs were benchmarked against observations of net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production, and aboveground biomass from multiple data streams including an eddy covariance flux tower, flux chambers, and aircraft and unoccupied aerial system hyperspectral remote sensing. Evaluation revealed that Arctic-specific PFT simulations produced more realistic landscape-level carbon exchanges, and better captured observed heterogeneity in biomass and productivity, explaining 60%–70% of spatial variance (R 2 = 0.6–0.7) compared to just 12%–18% (R 2 = 0.12–0.18) with the default configuration. However, the refined model failed to reproduce observed aboveground biomass for highly productive alder-willow communities, requiring further evaluation of carbon allocation parameterizations for tall shrubs that are increasingly expanding across tundra landscapes. Our results demonstrate that enhanced representation of vegetation heterogeneity boosts predictive understanding of tundra carbon dynamics, facilitating regional to pan-Arctic model and remote-sensing scaling.

Murphy, Bailey A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗

Tailoring tokamak error fields to control plasma instabilities and transport

A tokamak relies on the axisymmetric magnetic fields to confine fusion plasmas and aims to deliver sustainable and clean energy. However, misalignments arise inevitably in the tokamak construction, leading to small asymmetries in the magnetic field known as error fields (EFs). The EFs have been a major concern in the tokamak approaches because small EFs, even less than 0.1%, can drive a plasma disruption. Meanwhile, the EFs in the tokamak can be favorably used for controlling plasma instabilities, such as edge-localized modes (ELMs). Here we show an optimization that tailors the EFs to maintain an edge 3D response for ELM control with a minimized core 3D response to avoid plasma disruption and unnecessary confinement degradation. We design and demonstrate such an edge-localized 3D response in the KSTAR facility, benefiting from its unique flexibility to change many degrees of freedom in the 3D coil space for the various fusion plasma regimes. This favorable control of the tokamak EF represents a notable advance for designing intrinsically 3D tokamaks to optimize stability and confinement for next-step fusion reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Potential design problems for ITER fusion device

The international thermonuclear experimental reactor (ITER) is a worldwide project currently being built in France for the demonstration of the feasibility of thermonuclear technologies for future realization of successful commercial fusion energy. ITER is of the tokamak based design using strong magnetic fields to confine the very hot plasma needed to induce the fusion reaction. Tokamak devices are currently the front leading designs. Building a successful magnetic fusion device for energy production is of great challenge. A key obstacle to such design is the performance during abnormal events including plasma disruptions and so-called edge-localized modes (ELMs). In these events, a massive and sudden release of energy occurs quickly, due to loss of full or partial plasma confinement, leading to very high transient power loads on the reactor surface boundaries. A successful reactor design should tolerate several of these transient events without serious damages such as melting and vaporization of the structure. This paper highlights, through comprehensive state-of-the-art computer simulation of the entire ITER interior design during such transient events, e.g., ELMs occurring at normal operation and disruptions during abnormal operation, potential serious problems with current plasma facing components (PFCs) design. The HEIGHTS computer package is used in these simulations. The ITER reactor design was simulated in full and exact 3D geometry including all known relevant physical processes involved during these transient events. The current ITER divertor design may not work properly and may requires significant modifications or new innovative design to prevent serious damage and to ensure successful operation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Explainable tokamak-agnostic forecasting of fusion plasma instability via megahertz turbulent fluctuations

Scientific applications of artificial intelligence (AI) often remain limited by device-specific training and unexplained “black-box” approaches, creating fundamental barriers to cross-system generalization. This challenge is critical for nuclear fusion, where future reactors will have limited operational data for AI training. Here, we demonstrate that our neural network, trained solely on megahertz-scale turbulence measurements from one machine (DIII-D), forecasts Type-I edge localized mode (ELM) onsets in a different tokamak (KSTAR) through zero-shot weight transfer following physics-consistent preprocessing without device-specific retraining. Through an explainable AI framework combining gradient-weighted class activation mapping with physics validation, we reveal that our network can internalize physics relationships governing the ELM instabilities rather than memorizing device-specific patterns. The network perceives spatiotemporal features that correlate consistently with independently calculated instability growth rates, magnetohydrodynamic stability limits, and pedestal structure dynamics. Statistical analyses of dimensionally-reduced saliency features reveal the identical triangular features between the saliency representations, instability growth rates, and prediction probability across tokamaks, providing evidence that our forecasting system can show tokamak-agnostic generalization. This work contributes to a foundation for explainable scientific AI systems, where cross-system developments are essential for transcending traditional domain-specific constraints.

AI↗

Time-dependent modeling of coupled plasma-wall dynamics

Effects of dynamic wall outgassing on divertor plasma during an ELM-like heat pulse are modelled using newly coupled edge plasma code UEDGE and all reaction-diffusion code FACE. Different divertor regimes are simulated depending on the degree of the plasma detachment. It is shown that hydrogen outgassing from the divertor target plate induced by ELM pulse in the semi-detached regime can trigger deep plasma detachment. The induced detachment does not spontaneously reverse after the pulse due to ineffective implantation of low energy plasma hydrogen in the target material. Furthermore, we demonstrate that plasma neutrals play essential role in heat transport in a detached divertor. The modelled hydrogen dynamics in the wall material demonstrates that the heat pulse leads to enhanced hydrogen transport toward the wall bulk.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Theory of edge localized mode suppression by static resonant magnetic perturbations in the DIII-D tokamak

According to a recent paper [Hu et al ., Phys. Plasmas 26, 120702 (2019)], mode penetration at the top of the pedestal is a necessary and sufficient condition for the suppression of edge localized modes (ELMs) by a resonant magnetic perturbation (RMPs) in an H-mode tokamak discharge. This paper employs asymptotic matching theory to model a particular DIII-D discharge in which ELMs were suppressed by an externally generated, static, n ¼ 2, RMP whose amplitude was modulated at a frequency of 1 Hz. It is demonstrated that the response of the plasma to the applied RMP, in the immediate vicinities of the rational (i.e., resonant) surfaces, is governed by nonlinear, rather than by linear, physics. This is the case because the magnetic island widths associated with driven reconnection exceed the linear layer widths, even in cases where driven reconnection is strongly suppressed by plasma rotation. The natural frequency at a given rational surface (i.e., the helical frequency at which the locally resonant component of the RMP would need to propagate in order to maximize driven reconnection) is found to be offset from the local E B frame in the ion diamagnetic direction. The size of the offset is mostly determined by neoclassical poloidal rotation. Finally, the predictions of a fully nonlinear plasma response model are found to be broadly consistent with the DIII-D experimental data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Further modeling of q 95 windows for the suppression of edge localized modes by resonant magnetic perturbations in the DIII-D tokamak

An improved resonant plasma response model that more accurately captures the physics of the interaction between a tokamak plasma and a resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) is developed. The model interpolates between the linear and the nonlinear response regimes and takes into account the fact that the slip-frequency is non-zero in the nonlinear regime. The improved model is incorporated into the extended perturbed equilibrium code (EPEC) toroidal asymptotic matching code. The modified EPEC code is used to investigate RMP-induced edge-localized-mode (ELM) suppression in DIII-D H-mode discharge #145380. Somewhat surprisingly, allowing for a finite slip-frequency (i.e., relaxing the so-called no-slip constraint) is found to only slightly facilitate the locking of driven magnetic island chains to the RMP, and, hence, to only slightly facilitate RMP-induced ELM suppression. This is true despite the fact that the nature of non-locked island solutions is radically different when the no-slip constraint is imposed compared to when it is relaxed (in the first case, the widths of the island chains driven at the rational surfaces pulsate, and in the second case, they remain steady). The previously obtained conclusion that the response of a typical H-mode tokamak plasma to an RMP cannot be accurately modeled by linear theory is confirmed. Here, the previously obtained conclusion that the best agreement between theory and observations is achieved by assuming that the natural frequencies of tearing modes, in the absence of the RMP, are determined by the local equilibrium E × B velocity is also confirmed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Pedestal magnetic turbulence measurements in ELMy H-mode DIII-D plasmas by Faraday-effect polarimetry

Internal magnetic fluctuation measurements are utilized to identify turbulence associated with micro-tearing modes (MTM) in the DIII-D Edge-Localized-Mode (ELM)-y H-mode pedestal. Using a Faraday-effect polarimeter, magnetic turbulence (150–500 kHz) is directly observed with a typical line-averaged fluctuation amplitude of ~0.8 G at peak frequency (250 kHz) and ~15 G integrated over the spectrum from 150 to 500 kHz. Frequency, poloidal wavenumber, and propagation direction of the magnetic turbulence all serve to identify as MTM. Magnetic turbulence amplitude non-monotonically correlates with collision frequency, peaks off mid-plane, and correlates with electron temperature gradient evolution between ELMs, consistent with MTM features identified from theory and gyro-kinetic simulation. The magnetic turbulence growth correlates with confinement degradation in ELMy H-mode plasmas during a slow density ramp. In conclusion, these internal measurements provide unique constraints toward developing physics understanding and validating models of the H-mode pedestal for future devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Observation of fully detached divertor integrated with improved core confinement for tokamak fusion plasmas

Integration of divertor detachment with a high-performance (β N ~ 3, β p > 2, H 98 ~ 1.5) core plasma has been demonstrated in DIII-D high-β p (poloidal beta) plasmas associated with a sustained core internal transport barrier (ITB) and an H-mode edge transport barrier (ETB). Such good core-edge integration has been achieved for both neon and nitrogen seeding, for both favorable and unfavorable B-field directions, independently from the impurity puffing locations, though these variations play important roles on divertor characteristics. Compared to the standard H-mode plasmas, the high-β p plasma exhibits a much wider window of detachment compatible with high confinement core. Fully detached divertor plasmas with low plasma temperature (Te < 5 eV), low particle flux, and low heat flux across the entire divertor target plate were obtained by using nitrogen seeding. This detached high-β p plasma is compatible with a newly developed detachment control system which can help optimize the nitrogen gas flow rate. Several features, i.e., the high edge safety factor in the high-β p scenario, impurity injection, closed divertor and reduced heating power requirement due to the high confinement, facilitate the achievement of full divertor detachment at lower density. Instead of degrading global performance, the divertor detachment facilitates the access to an even stronger ITB at large radius with a relatively weak ETB through self-organized synergy between ITB and ETB, leading to sustained high confinement. The strengthening of the large-radius ITB compensates for the ETB degradation associated with divertor detachment. In addition, a weak ETB naturally has smaller edge localized modes (ELMs). In particular, with neon injection, a long-period no-ELM H-mode phase has been achieved simultaneously with high-performance core and partially detached divertor plasmas. Furthermore, these results demonstrate the possibility of integrating excellent core plasma performance with an effective divertor solution, an essential step toward steady-state operation of reactor-grade plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Novel 2D velocity estimation method for large transient events in plasmas

Dynamics of fast transient events are challenging to be analyzed with high time resolution. Such events can occur in fusion plasmas such as the filaments during edge-localized modes (ELMs). Here, we present a robust method—the spatial displacement estimation—for estimating the displacements of structures with fast dynamics from high spatial and time resolution imaging diagnostics [e.g., gas-puff imaging (GPI)] with sampling time temporal resolution. First, a background suppression method is shown, which suppresses the slowly time-evolving and spatially non-uniform background in the signal. In the second step, a two-dimensional polynomial trend subtraction method is presented to tackle the remaining polynomial order trend in the signal. After performing these pre-processing steps, the spatial displacement of the propagating structure is estimated from the two-dimensional spatial cross-correlation coefficient function calculated between consecutive frames. The method is tested for its robustness and accuracy by simulated Gaussian events and spatially displaced random noise. An example application of the method is presented on propagating ELM filaments measured by the GPI system on the National Spherical Torus Experiment spherical tokamak.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Diagnosing the pedestal magnetic field and magnetohydrodynamics radial structure with pedestal–scrape of layer electron cyclotron emission radiation inversion in H-mode plasma (invited)

Forward modeling is used to interpret inversion patterns of the pedestal–Scrape of Layer (SOL) Electron Cyclotron Emission (ECE) in DIII-D H-mode experiments. The modeling not only significantly improves the ECE data interpretation quality but also leads to the potential measurements of (1) the magnetic field strength |B| at the separatrix, (2) the pedestal |B| evolution during an inter-Edge Localized Mode (ELM) period, and (3) the pedestal Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) radial structure. The ECE shine-through effect leads to three types of pedestal–SOL radiation inversions that are discussed in this paper. The first type of inversion is the non-monotonic T e,rad profile with respect to the major radius. Using the ECE frequency at the minimum T e,rad , the inversion can be applied to measure the magnetic field |B| at the separatrix and calibrate the mapping of the ECE channels with respect to the separatrix. The second type of inversion refers to the opposite phase between the radiation fluctuations δT e,rad at the pedestal and SOL. This δT e,rad phase inversion is sensitive to density and temperature fluctuations at the pedestal foot and, thus, can be used to qualitatively measure the MHD radial structure. The third type of inversion appears when the pedestal and SOL T e,rad evolve in an opposite trend, which can be used to infer the pedestal |B| field change during an inter-ELM period. Finally, the bandwidth effect on measuring δT e,rad due to pedestal MHD is also investigated in the radiation modeling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Effect of aspect ratio on plasma response to resonant magnetic perturbations in tokamak devices

A systematic numerical study is carried out, computing and comparing the plasma response to the resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) field, applied for controlling edge localized modes (ELMs), in a series of tokamak plasmas with varying aspect ratio and utilizing the MARS-F code. The aspect ratio is scanned either by varying the plasma major radius at a fixed minor radius or by varying the latter while fixing the former. Both approaches yield similar results when compared in terms of quantities with proper normalizations. In general, a non-monotonic dependence of the resonant response field (normalized by the vacuum counterpart) near the plasma edge is found with varying aspect ratio, indicating that a given ELM control coil current configuration strongly favors plasmas with a certain aspect ratio. This optimal aspect ratio, on the other hand, depends on the toroidal as well as poloidal (i.e., coil phasing) spectra of the applied RMP field. The equilibrium (edge) safety factor, the plasma shape, and the plasma toroidal flow are all fixed to ensure that the effects identified here are predominantly due to the plasma aspect ratio.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Role of edge-localized neoclassical tearing modes in quiescent H-mode plasmas in the DIII-D tokamak

The edge-harmonic oscillations (EHOs) in standard quiescent H-mode (QH-mode) plasmas in DIII-D are consistent with edge-localized neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) based on nonlinear two-fluid MHD simulations. Using kinetic equilibria constrained by edge profile measurements, the MHD simulations show that the n = 1 NTM and its harmonics can be destabilized at the pedestal top of QH-mode plasma by the edge bootstrap current. The simulations further show that the unstable NTMs can saturate either at small (<2% ψ N ) or large (>4% ψ N ) island width depending on the magnitude of the edge bootstrap current, where ψ N is the normalized radius in poloidal flux. The onset of the EHO also results in a prompt decrease in the pedestal width and height, consistent with simulation results for the onset of the NTM at the top of the QH-mode pedestal. This suggests that the avoidance of edge-localized modes (ELMs) in QH-mode can be attributed to the enhanced local transport induced by the NTM that is sufficient to prevent the expansion of the pedestal to an unstable width, analogous to the mechanism explored for ELM suppression by resonant magnetic perturbations. Nonlinear MHD simulations scanning the E × B frequency and the ratio of parallel and perpendicular thermal diffusivity (χ | /χ ⊥ ) at the pedestal top show that edge-localized NTMs are destabilized for conditions of high E × B frequency, high pedestal temperature, and low pedestal density, qualitatively consistent with experimental conditions required for observing the EHO.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Validation of MARS-F modeling of plasma response to RMPs using internal measurements on DIII-D

The linear resistive plasma response model is validated against the plasma internal measurement data from DIII-D edge-localized mode (ELM) control experiments with applied resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP). Considered are DIII-D discharges where the n = 1, 2, and 3 (n is the toroidal mode number) RMP field was applied. Experimental data for the plasma boundary displacement, as well as the three-dimensional (3D) pressure perturbation in the edge pedestal region, are deduced from the vertical Thomson scattering (TS) system and the horizontal charge exchange recombination (CER) system on DIII-D. The linear response model produces results that are in reasonable quantitative agreement with the DIII-D internal measurements. The plasma boundary displacement of up to 15 mm is modeled, with the pedestal pressure perturbation reaching 3 kPa. As an important insight, the larger plasma displacement measured by the vertical TS system, as compared to that measured by the horizontal CER system, is due to the contribution from the tangential component of the plasma displacement to the former. This mixing of displacement components is also found to influence the sensitivity of the CER measurement comparisons. The results of this study provide further confidence in the linear resistive plasma response model for analyzing ELM control experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Impurity transport in the pedestal of H-mode plasmas with resonant magnetic perturbations

Experiments on DIII-D show that resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) reduce the impurity confinement time in the H-mode pedestal below that of naturally ELMy plasmas. STRAHL modeling of discharges with aluminum laser blow off (LBO) injection show increased diffusion in the pedestal of H-mode discharges with RMPs. The increased diffusion from the RMPs provides improved impurity control compared to the naturally ELMy discharges and prevents the buildup of impurities near the edge of the plasma. Tungsten LBO injection into discharges with and without RMPs led to striking differences in the evolution of the discharge. The naturally ELMy discharge became ELM free and showed an increase in edge radiation, leading to the eventual radiative collapse of the plasma. Injecting a similar number ofWparticles into discharges with RMPs, either with or without ELMs, led to a measurable accumulation of core W but did not significantly impact the evolution of the discharge. Furthermore, these results indicate that RMPs are beneficial for controlling the buildup of impurities in the pedestal region of the plasma.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗