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At least 307 records · Page 17

SHIELDS Final Technical Report

Predicting variations in the near-Earth space environment that can lead to spacecraft damage and failure, i.e. “space weather”, remains a big space physics challenge. A new capability was developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) to understand, model, and predict Space Hazards Induced near Earth by Large Dynamic Storms, the SHIELDS framework. This framework simulates the dynamics of the Surface Charging Environment (SCE), the hot (keV) electrons representing the source and seed populations for the radiation belts, on both macro- and micro-scale. In addition to using physics-based models (like RAM-SCB, BATS-R-US, and iPIC3D), new data assimilation techniques employing data from LANL instruments on the Van Allen Probes and geosynchronous satellites were developed. An order of magnitude improvement in the accuracy in the simulation of the spacecraft surface charging environment was thus obtained. SHIELDS also includes a post-processing tool designed to calculate the surface charging for specific spacecraft geometry using the Curvilinear Particle-In-Cell (CPIC) code and to evaluate anomalies' relation to SCE dynamics. Such diagnostics is critically important when performing forensic analyses of space-system failures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Three-dimensional dynamics of vortex-induced reconnection and comparison with THEMIS observations

The entry of solar wind into the magnetosphere is strongly influenced by kinetic-scale boundary layers where the rapid variation in the magnetic field and/or velocity can drive transport. In current layers with strong Alfvénic velocity shear, the generation of vortices from the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability can drive magnetic reconnection even in broader current sheets by locally compressing these layers as the vortices develop. Previous two-dimensional (2-D) fully kinetic simulations of this vortex-induced reconnection process have demonstrated the copious formation of magnetic islands in regions of strongly compressed current between the vortices. Here we describe the first three-dimensional (3-D) fully kinetic simulations of this process and demonstrate that the compressed current sheets give rise to magnetic flux ropes over a range of oblique angles and along the entire extent of the compressed current layer around the periphery of the vortex. These flux ropes propagate with the shear flow and eventually merge with the vortex. Over longer time scales, this basic scenario is repeated as the vortices drive new compressed current sheets. In the final stage, the vortices undergo a merging process that drives new compressed current sheets and flux ropes. Based on these simulations, a simple model is proposed that predicts the size of these flux ropes relative to their parent vortex. Both the relative sizes as well as the structure of the profiles across the vortex are in reasonable agreement with Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions (THEMIS) observations at the Earth's low-latitude magnetopause.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Generation of extremely low frequency chorus in Van Allen radiation belts: ELF CHORUS GENERATION

Recent studies have shown that chorus can efficiently accelerate the outer radiation belt electrons to relativistic energies. Chorus, previously often observed above 0.1 equatorial electron gyrofrequency f ce , was generated by energetic electrons originating from Earth's plasmasheet. Chorus below 0.1 f ce has seldom been reported until the recent data from Van Allen Probes but its origin has not been revealed so far. Because electron resonant energy can approach the relativistic level at extremely low frequency relativistic effects should be considered in the formula for whistler-mode wave growth rate. Here we report high-resolution observations during the 14 October 2014 small storm and firstly demonstrate, using a fully relativistic simulation, that electrons with the high energy tail population and relativistic pitch angle anisotropy can provide free energy sufficient for generating chorus below 0.1 f ce . The simulated wave growth displays a very similar pattern to the observations. Finally, the current results can be applied to Jupiter, Saturn and other magnetized planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Global Positioning System constellation as a space weather monitor. Comparison of electron measurements with Van Allen Probes data

Energetic electron observations in Earth's radiation belts are typically sparse, and multipoint studies often rely on serendipitous conjunctions. This paper establishes the scientific utility of the Combined X-ray Dosimeter (CXD), currently flown on 19 satellites in the Global Positioning System (GPS) constellation, by cross-calibrating energetic electron measurements against data from the Van Allen Probes. By breaking our cross calibration into two parts—one that removes any spectral assumptions from the CXD flux calculation and one that compares the energy spectra—we first validate the modeled instrument response functions, then the calculated electron fluxes. Unlike previous forward modeling of energetic electron spectra, we use a combination of four distributions that together capture a wide range of observed spectral shapes. Moreover, our two-step approach allowed us to identify, and correct for, small systematic offsets between block IIR and IIF satellites. Using the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer and Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope on Van Allen Probes as a “gold standard,” here we demonstrate that the CXD instruments are well understood. A robust statistical analysis shows that CXD and Van Allen Probes fluxes are similar and the measured fluxes from CXD are typically within a factor of 2 of Van Allen Probes at energies inline image4 MeV. Our team present data from 17 CXD-equipped GPS satellites covering the 2015 “St. Patrick's Day” geomagnetic storm to illustrate the scientific applications of such a high data density satellite constellation and therefore demonstrate that the GPS constellation is positioned to enable new insights in inner magnetospheric physics and space weather forecasting.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Forecasting and remote sensing outer belt relativistic electrons from low Earth orbit

Our study demonstrates the feasibility and reliability of using observations from low Earth orbit (LEO) to forecast and nowcast relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt. Furthermore, we first report a high cross-energy, cross-pitch-angle coherence discovered between the trapped MeV electrons and precipitating approximately hundreds (~100s) of keV electrons—observed by satellites with very different altitudes—with correlation coefficients as high as ≳ 0.85. We then tested the feasibility of applying linear prediction filters to LEO data to predict the arrival of new MeV electrons during geomagnetic storms, as well as their evolving distributions afterward, based on the coherence. Reliability of these predictive filters is quantified by the performance efficiency with values as high as 0.74 when driven merely by LEO observations (or up to 0.94 with the inclusion of in situ MeV electron measurements). Finally, a hypothesis based upon the wave-particle resonance theory is proposed to explain the coherence, and a first-principle electron tracing model yields supporting evidence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Medium Energy Electron Flux in Earth's Outer Radiation Belt (MERLIN): A Machine Learning Model

The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120–600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The integrated miniaturized electrostatic analyzer: A space plasma environment sensor

The integrated Miniaturized Electrostatic Analyzer (iMESA) was a satellite-based ionospheric sensor that operated on NASA’s Space Test Program Satellite (STPSat-3) from December 2013 to July 2019. The instrument’s scientific objective was to (1) measure the plasma density in low Earth orbit, (2) measure the plasma temperature in low Earth orbit, and (3) quantify the spacecraft potential with respect to the ambient plasma potential in the ionosphere. iMESA sampled the ionosphere every 10 s by measuring the ion current density through the ESA as a result of the motion of the spacecraft through the plasma. Current density spectra were transmitted to the ground where they were post-processed into ion density spectra and then analyzed numerically to determine the ion density, ion temperature, and spacecraft potential. This article discusses the instrument design and simulation, the determination of a geometric factor, and data processing procedures and evaluates the final data product with regard to the mission success criteria. Here, the ion density and ion temperature captured by the iMESA instrument are on the same order and range as the values predicted in the literature. The spacecraft potential was also quantified. The conclusion after the evaluation of the instrument’s data product is that the scientific mission is successful on all three points.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Roles of hot electrons in generating upper-hybrid waves in the earth's radiation belt

Electrostatic fluctuations near upper-hybrid frequency, which are sometimes accompanied by multiple-harmonic electron cyclotron frequency bands above and below the upper-hybrid frequency, are common occurrences in the Earth's radiation belt, as revealed through the twin Van Allen Probe spacecrafts. It is customary to use the upper-hybrid emissions for estimating the background electron density, which in turn can be used to determine the plasmapause locations, but the role of hot electrons in generating such fluctuations has not been discussed in detail. The present paper carries out detailed analyses of data from the Waves instrument, which is part of the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science suite onboard the Van Allen Probes. Combined with the theoretical calculation, it is shown that the peak intensity associated with the upper-hybrid fluctuations might be predominantly determined by tenuous but hot electrons and that denser cold background electrons do not seem to contribute much to the peak intensity. This finding shows that upper-hybrid fluctuations detected during quiet time are not only useful for the determination of the background cold electron density but also contain information on the ambient hot electrons population as well.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Electron-scale current sheets and energy dissipation in 3D kinetic-scale plasma turbulence with low electron beta

ABSTRACT Three-dimensional kinetic-scale turbulence is studied numerically in the regime where electrons are strongly magnetized (the ratio of plasma species pressure to magnetic pressure is βe = 0.1 for electrons and βi = 1 for ions). Such a regime is relevant in the vicinity of the solar corona, the Earth’s magnetosheath, and other astrophysical systems. The simulations, performed using the fluid-kinetic spectral plasma solver (sps) code, demonstrate that the turbulent cascade in such regimes can reach scales smaller than the electron inertial scale, and results in the formation of electron-scale current sheets (ESCS). Statistical analysis of the geometrical properties of the detected ESCS is performed using an algorithm based on the medial axis transform. A typical half-thickness of the current sheets is found to be on the order of electron inertial length or below, while their half-length falls between the electron and ion inertial length. The pressure–strain interaction, used as a measure of energy dissipation, exhibits high intermittency, with the majority of the total energy exchange occurring in current structures occupying approximately 20 per cent of the total volume. Some of the current sheets corresponding to the largest pressure–strain interaction are found to be associated with Alfvénic electron jets and magnetic configurations typical of reconnection. These reconnection candidates represent about 1 per cent of all the current sheets identified.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Rapid Loss of Radiation Belt Relativistic Electrons by EMIC Waves

How relativistic electrons are lost is an important question surrounding the complex dynamics of the Earth's outer radiation belt. Radial loss to the magnetopause and local loss to the atmosphere are two main competing paradigms. Here on the basis of the analysis of a radiation belt storm event on 27 February 2014, we present new evidence for the electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave-driven local precipitation loss of relativistic electrons in the heart of the outer radiation belt. During the main phase of this storm, the radial profile of relativistic electron phase space density was quasi-monotonic, qualitatively inconsistent with the prediction of radial loss theory. The local loss at low L shells was required to prevent the development of phase space density peak resulting from the radial loss process at high L shells. The rapid loss of relativistic electrons in the heart of outer radiation belt was observed as a dip structure of the electron flux temporal profile closely related to intense EMIC waves. Our simulations further confirm that the observed EMIC waves within a quite limited longitudinal region were able to reduce the off-equatorially mirroring relativistic electron fluxes by up to 2 orders of magnitude within about 1.5 h.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Transport and Loss of Ring Current Electrons Inside Geosynchronous Orbit During the 17 March 2013 Storm

Ring current electrons (1–100 keV) have received significant attention in recent decades, but many questions regarding their major transport and loss mechanisms remain open. In this study, we use the four-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt code to model the enhancement of phase space density that occurred during the 17 March 2013 storm. Our model includes global convection, radial diffusion, and scattering into the Earth's atmosphere driven by whistler-mode hiss and chorus waves. We study the sensitivity of the model to the boundary conditions, global electric field, the electric field associated with subauroral polarization streams, electron loss rates, and radial diffusion coefficients. The results of the code are almost insensitive to the model parameters above 4.5 R E R E , which indicates that the general dynamics of the electrons between 4.5 R E and the geostationary orbit can be explained by global convection. We found that the major discrepancies between the model and data can stem from the inaccurate electric field model and uncertainties in lifetimes. We show that additional mechanisms that are responsible for radial transport are required to explain the dynamics of ≥40-keV electrons, and the inclusion of the radial diffusion rates that are typically assumed in radiation belt studies leads to a better agreement with the data. The overall effect of subauroral polarization streams on the electron phase space density profiles seems to be smaller than the uncertainties in other input parameters. This study is an initial step toward understanding the dynamics of these particles inside the geostationary orbit.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Prompt enhancement of the Earth's outer radiation belt due to substorm electron injections

Here, we present multipoint simultaneous observations of the near-Earth magnetotail and outer radiation belt during the substorm electron injection event on 16 August 2013. Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms A in the near-Earth magnetotail observed flux-enhanced electrons of 300 keV during the magnetic field dipolarization. Geosynchronous orbit satellites also observed the intensive electron injections. Located in the outer radiation belt, RBSP-A observed enhancements of MeV electrons accompanied by substorm dipolarization. The phase space density (PSD) of MeV electrons at L* ~5.4 increased by 1 order of magnitude in 1 h, resulting in a local PSD peak of MeV electrons, which was caused by the direct effect of substorm injections. We also detected an enhanced MeV electrons in the heart of the outer radiation belt within 2 h, which may be associated with intensive substorm electron injections and subsequent local acceleration by chorus waves. Multipoint observations have shown that substorm electron injections not only can be the external source of MeV electrons at the outer edge of the outer radiation belt (L* ~5.4) but also can provide the intensive seed populations in the outer radiation belt. These initial higher-energy electrons from injection can reach relativistic energy much faster. Furthermore, these observations also provide evidence that enhanced substorm electron injections can explain rapid enhancements of MeV electrons in the outer radiation belt.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Model evaluation guidelines for geomagnetic index predictions

Geomagnetic indices are convenient quantities that distill the complicated physics of some region or aspect of near–Earth space into a single parameter. Most of the best–known indices are calculated from ground–based magnetometer data sets, such as Dst, SYM–H, Kp, AE, AL, and PC. Many models have been created that predict the values of these indices, often using solar wind measurements upstream from Earth as the input variables to the calculation. This document reviews the current state of models that predict geomagnetic indices and the methods used to assess their ability to reproduce the target index time series. These existing methods are synthesized into a baseline collection of metrics for benchmarking a new or updated geomagnetic index prediction model. These methods fall into two categories: (1) fit performance metrics such as root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) that are applied to a time–series comparison of model output and observations; and (2) event detection performance metrics such as Heidke Skill Score and probability of detection (POD) that are derived from a contingency table that compares model and observation values exceeding (or not) a threshold value. Furthermore, a few examples of codes being used with this set of metrics are presented, and other aspects of metrics assessment best practices, limitations, and uncertainties are discussed, including several caveats to consider when using geomagnetic indices.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Investigating the source of near-relativistic and relativistic electrons in Earth's inner radiation belt

Using observations from NASA's Van Allen Probes, we study the role of sudden particle enhancements at low L shells (SPELLS) as a source of inner radiation belt electrons. SPELLS events are characterized by electron intensity enhancements of approximately an order of magnitude or more in less than 1 day at L < 3. During quiet and average geomagnetic conditions, the phase space density radial distributions for fixed first and second adiabatic invariants are peaked at 2 < L < 3 for electrons ranging in energy from ~50 keV to ~1 MeV, indicating that slow inward radial diffusion is not the dominant source of inner belt electrons under quiet/average conditions. During SPELLS events, the evolution of electron distributions reveals an enhancement of phase space density that can exceed 3 orders of magnitude in the slot region and continues into the inner radiation belt, which is evidence that these events are an important—and potentially dominant—source of inner belt electrons. Electron fluxes from September 2012 through February 2016 reveal that SPELLS occur frequently (~2.5/month at 200 keV), but the number of observed events decreases exponentially with increasing electron energy for ≥100 keV. After SPELLS events, the slot region reforms due to slow energy-dependent decay over several day time scales, consistent with losses due to interactions with plasmaspheric hiss. Altogether, these results indicate that the peaked phase space density distributions in the inner electron radiation belt result from an “on/off,” geomagnetic-activity-dependent source from higher radial distances.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Do Impulsive Solar-Energetic-Electron (SEE) Events Drive High-Voltage Charging Events on the Nightside of the Moon?

When the Earth’s moon is in the supersonic solar wind, the darkside of the Moon and the lunar plasma wake can be very dangerous charging environments. In the absence of photoelectron emission (dark) and in the absence of cool plasma (wake), the emission or collection of charge to reduce electrical potentials is difficult. Unique extreme charging events may occur during impulsive solar-energetic-electron (SEE) events when the lunar wake is dominated by relativistic electrons, with the potential to charge and differentially charge objects on and above the lunar surface to very-high negative electrical potentials. In this report the geometry of the magnetic connections from the Sun to the lunar nightside are explored; these magnetic connections are the pathways for SEEs from the Sun. Rudimentary charging calculations for objects in the relativistic-electron environment of the lunar wake are performed. To enable these charging calculations, secondary-electron yields for impacts by relativistic electrons are derived. Needed lunar electrical-grounding precautions for SEE events are discussed. Calls are made 1) for future dynamic simulations of the plasma wake in the presence of time-varying SEE-event relativistic electrons and time-varying solar-wind magnetic-field orientations and 2) for future charging calculations in the relativistic-electron wake environment and on the darkside lunar surface.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dual-spacecraft reconstruction of a three-dimensional magnetic flux rope at the Earth's magnetopause

We present the first results of a data analysis method, developed by Sonnerup and Hasegawa (2011), for reconstructing three-dimensional (3-D), magnetohydrostatic structures from data taken as two closely spaced satellites traverse the structures. The method is applied to a magnetic flux transfer event (FTE), which was encountered on 27 June 2007 by at least three (TH-C, TH-D, and TH-E) of the five THEMIS probes near the subsolar magnetopause. The FTE was sandwiched between two oppositely directed reconnection jets under a southward interplanetary magnetic field condition, consistent with its generation by multiple X-line reconnection. The recovered 3-D field indicates that a magnetic flux rope with a diameter of ~ 3000 km was embedded in the magnetopause. The FTE flux rope had a significant 3-D structure, because the 3-D field reconstructed from the data from TH-C and TH-D (separated by ~ 390 km) better predicts magnetic field variations actually measured along the TH-E path than does the 2-D Grad–Shafranov reconstruction using the data from TH-C (which was closer to TH-E than TH-D and was at ~ 1250 km from TH-E). Such a 3-D nature suggests that the field lines reconnected at the two X-lines on both sides of the flux rope are entangled in a complicated way through their interaction with each other. The generation process of the observed 3-D flux rope is discussed on the basis of the reconstruction results and the pitch-angle distribution of electrons observed in and around the FTE.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Evidence of Alfvenic Poynting Flux as the Primary Driver of Auroral Motion During a Geomagnetic Substorm

Geomagnetic substorms are major energy transfer events where energy stored in the Earth's magnetotail is released into the ionosphere. Substorm phenomena, including auroral activities, earthward Poynting flux, magnetic field dipolarization, etc, have been extensively studied. However, the complex interplay among them is not fully understood. In a fortuitous event on June 7, 2013, the twin Van Allen Probes (separated by 0.4 h in local time) observed bursts of earthward Alfvenic Poynting flux in the vicinity of the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL). The Poynting flux bursts correlate with enhancements of auroral brightness around the footpoints of both spacecraft. This indicates a temporal and spatial correlation between the auroral brightening and Poynting flux bursts, and that the auroral motion is directly linked to the perpendicular expansion of the Alfven wave. These observations suggest that the Alfvenic Poynting flux is a primary driver for the auroral electron acceleration. Furthermore, around the time of auroral brightening, a dipolarization was seen to propagate more than 4 h in local time during a 20 min period. The azimuthal phase speed of this dipolarization (2 deg/min) is too small to explain the azimuthal motion of the aurora (13.6 deg/min), but the dipolarization could be related to the generation of the Alfvenic Poynting flux through phase mixing at strong density gradients like those in the PSBL.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Prediction of MeV electron fluxes throughout the outer radiation belt using multivariate autoregressive models

The Van Allen radiation belts surrounding the Earth are filled with MeV-energy electrons. This region poses ionizing radiation risks for spacecraft that operate within it, including those in geostationary orbit (GEO) and medium Earth orbit. In order to provide alerts of electron flux enhancements, 16 prediction models of the electron log-flux variation throughout the equatorial outer radiation belt as a function of the McIlwain L parameter were developed using the multivariate autoregressive model and Kalman filter. Measurements of omnidirectional 2.3 MeV electron flux from the Van Allen Probes mission as well as >2 MeV electrons from the GOES 15 spacecraft were used as the predictors. Furthermore, we selected model explanatory parameters from solar wind parameters, the electron log-flux at GEO, and geomagnetic indices. For the innermost region of the outer radiation belt, the electron flux is best predicted by using the Dst index as the sole input parameter. For the central to outermost regions, at L≥4.8 and L ≥5.6, the electron flux is predicted most accurately by including also the solar wind velocity and then the dynamic pressure, respectively. The Dst index is the best overall single parameter for predicting at 3 ≤ L ≤ 6, while for the GEO flux prediction, the K P index is better than Dst. Finally, a test calculation demonstrates that the model successfully predicts the timing and location of the flux maximum as much as 2 days in advance and that the electron flux decreases faster with time at higher L values, both model features consistent with the actually observed behavior.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗