Results for “Dynamic risk assessment” — Page 17

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamics of Intra-Cell Thermal Front Propagation in Lithium-Ion Battery Safety Issues

Thermal runaway (TR), a critical failure mode in lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), poses significant safety risks and hinders wider application of LIBs. TR typically begins at a localized heat source and spreads across the cell. Understanding thermal front propagation (TFP) characteristics, such as front and velocity, is crucial for assessing energy release and temperature distribution for battery hazardous estimation. Recent studies assume that TR within cells propagates at a near-constant velocity, based on the reaction kinetics and thermal properties. Here, in this study, an intra-battery TR model is further proposed and it indicates that TFP velocity stabilizes when the front is distanced from the heat source. Theoretical estimates for propagation velocity and front are developed and validated through numerical simulations and experimental tests from the NREL Battery Failure Databank. The energy release rate during TFP and the impact of preheating based on a point heat source are explored. This work clarifies the long-standing clouds of the thermal font propagation behaviors within the single cell, highlights the power and beauty of mathematics modeling to describe the complicated thermal behaviors, and provides important guidelines for thermal hazardous understanding for next-generation batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Effects of dissolved cations, dissolved organic carbon, and exposure concentrations on per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances bioaccumulation in freshwater algae

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have attracted global attention because of their persistence, toxicity, bioaccumulation potential, and associated adverse effects. As important primary producers, freshwater algae constitute the base of the food web in freshwater aquatic ecosystems. However, the effects of key environmental factors on PFAS uptake and bioaccumulation in freshwater algae have not been thoroughly studied. In this study, three bioaccumulation experiments were conducted to evaluate the influence of dissolved cations, dissolved organic carbon, and exposure concentrations on PFAS bioaccumulation in algae. Among the 14 studied PFAS, seven long-chain PFAS tended to bioaccumulate in algae. Elevated divalent cations (Ca 2+ and Mg 2+ ) and dissolved organic carbon did not significantly change the algal bioconcentration factors (BCFs) of PFAS, suggesting complexity of the interactions among PFAS, environmental factors, and biotic activities. Additionally, increasing exposure concentrations (0.5, 1, 5, and 10 μg/L of each PFAS) increased PFAS concentrations in algae but decreased the BCF values. This indicated that attention should be paid to the application of BCFs in future studies, including ecological risk assessment. Moreover, fluorotelomer sulfonic acids (FTSs) were incompletely recovered, suggesting that biotransformation occurred. Further studies should be conducted to evaluate whether algae play a role in FTSs biotransformation and to determine the mechanisms. In conclusion, studying the impacts of key environmental factors on PFAS bioaccumulation in algae is crucial for understanding the bioaccumulation processes that occur at the lowest trophic level and that eventually affect the dynamics of entire aquatic ecosystems.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

NASA NTRS1985

Electric power - Photovoltaic or solar dynamic?

The design of the power system for supplying the Space Station with insolation-generated electricity is the main Phase B task at NASA-Lewis Center. The advantages and limitations of two types of power systems, the photovoltaic arrays (PV) and the solar dynamic system (SD), are discussed from the points of view of cost, overall systems integration, and growth. Subsystems of each of these options are described, and a sketch of a projected SD system is shown. The PV technology is well developed and proven, but its low efficiency calls for solar arrays of large areas, which affect station dynamics, control, and drag compensation. The SD systems would be less costly to operate than VP, and are more efficient, needing less deployed area. The major drawback of the SD is its infancy. The conservative and forgiving designs for some of its components must still be created and tested, and the development risks assessed.

Thomas, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Trade Space Assessment for Human Exploration Mission Design

Many human space exploration mission architecture assessments have been performed over the years by diverse organizations and individuals. Direct comparison of metrics among these studies is extremely difficult due to widely varying assumptions involving projected technology readiness, mission goals, acceptable risk criteria, and socio-political environments. However, constant over the years have been the physical laws of celestial dynamics and rocket propulsion systems. A finite diverse yet finite architecture trade space should exist which captures methods of human exploration - particularly of the Moon and Mars - by delineating technical trades and cataloging the physically realizable options of each. A particular architectural approach should then have a traceable path through this "trade tree". It should be pointed out that not every permutation of paths will result in a physically realizable mission approach, but cataloging options that have been examined by past studies should help guide future analysis. This effort was undertaken in two phases by multi-center NASA working groups in the spring and summer of 2004 using more than thirty years of past studies to "flesh out" the Moon-Mars human exploration trade space. The results are presented, not as a "trade tree", which would be unwieldy, but as a "menu" of potential technical options as a function of mission phases. This is envisioned as a tool to aid future mission designers by offering guidance to relevant past analyses.

Joosten, B. Kent↗

NASA NTRS1993

Criteria for assessing problem solving and decision making in complex environments

Training crews to cope with unanticipated problems in high-risk, high-stress environments requires models of effective problem solving and decision making. Existing decision theories use the criteria of logical consistency and mathematical optimality to evaluate decision quality. While these approaches are useful under some circumstances, the assumptions underlying these models frequently are not met in dynamic time-pressured operational environments. Also, applying formal decision models is both labor and time intensive, a luxury often lacking in operational environments. Alternate approaches and criteria are needed. Given that operational problem solving and decision making are embedded in ongoing tasks, evaluation criteria must address the relation between those activities and satisfaction of broader task goals. Effectiveness and efficiency become relevant for judging reasoning performance in operational environments. New questions must be addressed: What is the relation between the quality of decisions and overall performance by crews engaged in critical high risk tasks? Are different strategies most effective for different types of decisions? How can various decision types be characterized? A preliminary model of decision types found in air transport environments will be described along with a preliminary performance model based on an analysis of 30 flight crews. The performance analysis examined behaviors that distinguish more and less effective crews (based on performance errors). Implications for training and system design will be discussed.

Orasanu, Judith↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development of a Digital Twin for Hydrogen Dispersion and Safety Assessment in an Electrolyzer Based Hydrogen Production Facility

Digital twin models are virtual representations of physical systems that use real-time data to simulate and optimize performance. This study presents the development and initial implementation of a digital twin (DT) for the electrolyzer-based hydrogen production facility at NREL's Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES), focused on enhancing safety and optimizing sensor placement through physics-based simulations and metadata integration. The DT incorporates detailed facility-specific information, including component layout, leak locations, and controlled release parameters, to model hydrogen dispersion under varying environmental conditions. Using steady-state computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations informed by real meteorological data, such as wind speed, direction, and vertical wind profiles, the DT enables visualization of hydrogen plume behavior and spatial concentration distributions. Comparative analysis between high and low wind speed scenarios illustrates the significant influence of wind dynamics on plume shape and extent, with horizontal momentum dominating dispersion at higher speeds, while buoyancy effects become more prominent under low wind conditions. These simulations generate a rich dataset embedded within the DT, allowing users to assess potential leak outcomes and identify optimal sensor locations based on concentration thresholds. The model supports scenario-based analysis to guide safety strategies and equipment deployment for open-area hydrogen infrastructure. The digital twin thus serves as a dynamic platform for virtual prototyping, providing predictive insight into hydrogen behavior and enhancing risk-informed decision-making. This initial phase establishes a validated foundation for future integration of transient, uncontrolled leak scenarios and real-time sensor feedback, positioning the DT as a critical tool for safety design, operational planning, and adaptive monitoring in hydrogen systems. Overall, the approach demonstrates the value of combining environmental data with digital simulations to inform safer and more efficient deployment of hydrogen technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of a Digital Twin for Hydrogen Dispersion and Safety Assessment in an Electrolyzer-Based Hydrogen Production Facility: Preprint

Digital twin models are virtual representations of physical systems that use real-time data to simulate and optimize performance. This study presents the development and initial implementation of a digital twin (DT) for the electrolyzer-based hydrogen production facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES), focused on enhancing safety and optimizing sensor placement through physics-based simulations and metadata integration. The DT incorporates detailed facility-specific information, including component layout, leak locations, and controlled release parameters, to model hydrogen dispersion under varying environmental conditions. Using steady-state computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations informed by real meteorological data, such as wind speed, direction, and vertical wind profiles, the DT enables visualization of hydrogen plume behavior and spatial concentration distributions. Comparative analysis between high and low wind speed scenarios illustrates the significant influence of wind dynamics on plume shape and extent, with horizontal momentum dominating dispersion at higher speeds, while buoyancy effects become more prominent under low wind conditions. These simulations generate a rich dataset embedded within the DT, allowing users to assess potential leak outcomes and identify optimal sensor locations based on concentration thresholds. The model supports scenario-based analysis to guide safety strategies and equipment deployment for open-area hydrogen infrastructure. The digital twin thus serves as a dynamic platform for virtual prototyping, providing predictive insight into hydrogen behavior and enhancing risk-informed decision-making. This initial phase establishes a validated foundation for future integration of transient, uncontrolled leak scenarios and real-time sensor feedback, positioning the DT as a critical tool for safety design, operational planning, and adaptive monitoring in hydrogen systems. Overall, the approach demonstrates the value of combining environmental data with digital simulations to inform safer and more efficient deployment of hydrogen technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Risk of Disc Heniation Related to Landing Impact Following Long-duration Spacecraft

Previous research has shown that crewmembers returning on the Space Shuttle have an increased incidence of herniated nucleus pulposus after spaceflight. This increased risk is thought to be related to disc volume expansion due to unloading and prolonged exposure to microgravity. Although there is an increased risk of disc herniation in Space Shuttle astronauts, it is unknown if dynamic landing loads further contribute to the risk of herniation. To determine if dynamic loads increase the risk of incidence, data from crewmembers (excluding cosmonauts) returning on the Soyuz spacecraft will be compared to Space Shuttle astronauts. These data will be obtained from the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) Project at NASA. Severity and incidence after spaceflight will be mined from the data, and statistical analyses will be used to determine if Soyuz crewmembers have a higher incidence of disc herniation than Space Shuttle crewmembers. The results are expected to show no difference between Space Shuttle and Soyuz crewmembers, indicating that higher dynamic loads on landing and long-duration spaceflight do not significantly increase the risk of disc herniation. If no difference is shown between the two crewmember populations, then disc volume expansion due to microgravity does not significantly increase the risk of injury due to dynamic loads for deconditioned crewmembers. Any risk associated with deconditioning would be primarily due to bone structure changes and resulting bone strength changes. This study is an important first step in determining whether the spinal disc plays a role in injury due to dynamic loads.

Somers, J. T.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Decision Making in Action: Applying Research to Practice

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment: Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for training will be discussed.

Orasanu, Judith↗

NASA NTRS1994

Decision Making in Action: Applying Research to Practice

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for spaceflight and training for offshore installations will be discussed.

Orasanu, Judith↗

NASA NTRS1994

Decision Making in Action

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for spaceflight and training for offshore installations will be discussed.

Orasanu, Judith↗

NASA NTRS1995

Decision Making in the Airplane

The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking In response to a problem, This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for training will be discussed.

Orasanu, Judith↗

NASA NTRS2016

Coupled CFD-PBE Predictions of Renal Stone Size Distributions in the Nephron in Microgravity

In this paper, a deterministic model is developed to assess the risk of critical renal stone formation for astronauts during space travel. A Population Balance Equation (PBE) model is used to compute the size distribution of a population of nucleating, growing and agglomerating renal calculi as they are transported through different sections of the nephron. The PBE model is coupled to a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model that solves for steady state flow of urine and transport of renal calculi along with the concentrations of ionic species, calcium and oxalate, in the nephron using an Eulerian two-phase mathematical framework. Parametric simulation are performed to study stone size enhancement and steady state volume fraction distributions in the four main sections of the nephron under weightlessness conditions. Contribution of agglomeration to the stone size distribution and effect of wall friction on the stone volume fraction distributions are carefully examined. Case studies using measured astronaut urinary calcium and oxalate concentrations in microgravity as input indicate that under nominal conditions the largest stone sizes developed in Space will be still considerably below the critical range for problematic stone development. However, results also indicate that the highest stone volume fraction occurs next to the tubule and duct walls. This suggests that there is an increased potential for wall adhesion with the possibility of evolution towards critical stone sizes.

Microgravity↗

NASA NTRS2016

Coupled CFD-PBE Predictions of Renal Stone Size Distributions in the Nephron in Microgravity

In this paper, a deterministic model is developed to assess the risk of critical renal stone formation for astronauts during space travel. A Population Balance Equation (PBE) model is used to compute the size distribution of a population of nucleating, growing and agglomerating renal calculi as they are transported through different sections of the nephron. The PBE model is coupled to a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model that solves for steady state flow of urine and transport of renal calculi along with the concentrations of ionic species, calcium and oxalate, in the nephron using an Eulerian two-phase mathematical framework. Parametric simulation are performed to study stone size enhancement and steady state volume fraction distributions in the four main sections of the nephron under weightlessness conditions. Contribution of agglomeration to the stone size distribution and effect of wall friction on the stone volume fraction distributions are carefully examined. Case studies using measured astronaut urinary calcium and oxalate concentrations in microgravity as input indicate that under nominal conditions the largest stone sizes developed in Space will be still considerably below the critical range for problematic stone development. However, results also indicate that the highest stone volume fraction occurs next to the tubule and duct walls. This suggests that there is an increased potential for wall adhesion with the possibility of evolution towards critical stone sizes.

Crystal Growth↗

NASA NTRS2015

Assessing Disparities of Dengue Virus Transmission Risk across the US-Mexican Border Using a Climate Driven Vector-Epidemiological Model

Dengue fever is a mosquito‐borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Although transmission regularly occurs along the border region in Mexico, dengue virus transmission in bordering Arizona has not occurred. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input and Daymet for temperature and supplemental precipitation input, we modeled dengue transmission along a US‐Mexico transect using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Model runs were performed for 5 cities in Sonora, Mexico and southern Arizona. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. For cities with reported dengue case data, the top model simulations that best reproduced dengue case numbers were retained and their parameter values were extracted for comparison. These parameter values were used to run simulations in areas where dengue virus transmission does not occur or where dengue fever case data was unavailable. Additional model runs were performed to reveal how changes in climate or parameter values could alter transmission risk along the transect. The relative influence of climate variability and model parameters on dengue virus transmission is assessed to help public health workers prepare location specific infection prevention strategies.

Morin, Cory↗

DOE OSTI2021

Time-resolved particle image velocimetry

Time-resolved particle image velocimetry (TR-PIV) has become widespread in fluid dynamics. Essentially a velocity field movie, the dynamic content provides temporal as well as spatial information, in contrast to conventional PIV offering only statistical ensembles of flow quantities. From these time series arise further analyses such as accelerometry, space-time correlations, frequency spectra of turbulence including spatial variability, and derivation of pressure fields and forces. The historical development of TR-PIV is chronicled, culminating in an assessment of the current state of technology in high-repetition-rate lasers and high-speed cameras. Commercialization of pulse-burst lasers has expanded TR-PIV into more flows, including the compressible regime, and has achieved MHz rates. Particle response times and peak locking during image interrogation require attention but generally are not impediments to success. Accuracy considerations are discussed, including the risks of noise and aliasing in spectral content. Oversampled TR-PIV measurements allow use of multi-frame image interrogation methods, which improve the precision of the correlation and raise the velocity dynamic range of PIV. In combination with volumetric methods and data assimilation, a full four-dimensional description of a flow is not only achievable but becoming standardized. Lastly, a survey of exemplary applications is followed by a few predictions concerning the future of TR-PIV.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS1982

Dynamics and control of a large space antenna

It is pointed out that large space antennae and other large space structures will play an important role in the coming decades as commercial applications of space become feasible. A investigation is conducted of the structural dynamics and the control properties for a 64-meter diameter center fed antenna. Attention is given to antenna configuration and structural dynamic porperties, the attitude and structural control system, disturbance assessment, hardware sizing, the construction of weighting matrices, and numerical results. It is found that structural uncertainties and model error can cause serious performance deterioration and can even destabilize the controllers. Flight test and in-orbit system identification of critical structural modes will insure performance and reduce risk for large space antenna missions.

Wang, S. J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Error Localization Examples: Looking for a Needle in a Haystack

Finite element models (FEM) are routinely developed and used during fabrication of high dollar-value hardware. NASA, as part of the pre-flight certification of launch vehicles, routinely conducts vibration and static tests to calibrate models used for flight-risk assessments. During model calibration, certain areas of the model are modified, using engineering judgment and sensitivity analysis, to match the test results. Unfortunately, tools to identify problem areas in the FEM using test data directly are scarce and infrequently applied. Over the years, error localization algorithms have been proposed with very limited success. Recently, the Analytical Dynamics Model Improvement (ADMI) algorithm, which computes closed-form mass and stiffness corrections to match the test data exactly, have been shown to be an effective Error Localization Algorithm (ELA). The paper discusses three examples where ELA is used with simulated test data to locate problem areas. To gain confidence in the approach, the exact answer is shown along with ELA results. Results show that ELA is able to identify general problem areas consistent with known problem areas. In all examples, the ELA identified area is larger than the exact problem area. Nonetheless, with proper optimization tools, calibration results using the ELA identified areas provide excellent results.

model calibration↗