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At least 307 records · Page 17

Tool for Rapid Analysis of Monte Carlo Simulations

Designing a spacecraft, or any other complex engineering system, requires extensive simulation and analysis work. Oftentimes, the large amounts of simulation data generated are very di cult and time consuming to analyze, with the added risk of overlooking potentially critical problems in the design. The authors have developed a generic data analysis tool that can quickly sort through large data sets and point an analyst to the areas in the data set that cause specific types of failures. The Tool for Rapid Analysis of Monte Carlo simulations (TRAM) has been used in recent design and analysis work for the Orion vehicle, greatly decreasing the time it takes to evaluate performance requirements. A previous version of this tool was developed to automatically identify driving design variables in Monte Carlo data sets. This paper describes a new, parallel version, of TRAM implemented on a graphical processing unit, and presents analysis results for NASA's Orion Monte Carlo data to demonstrate its capabilities.

Restrepo, Carolina↗

Accelerated Lifetime Testing of Main Shaft Seals for Tidal Turbine Rotors

This document will briefly discuss the observations and results from an NREL conducted accelerated lifetime testing of the main shaft seal for the Verdant Power fifth generation Gen5 underwater Tidal Energy Converter (TEC) turbine, which successfully performed at the RITE project in 2020-2021. In order to evaluate a 5-year Service Interval ( SI) for this component, testing at NREL operated the main shaft seal nearly continuously for over 135 (text says 130 days on page 5 and 125 days on page 7 and 137 days on page 11) days at a rotational velocity of 160 rpm while the test stand recorded water pressure, barrier fluid pressure, temperature, and number of cycles., representing ~ 40% of the SI. An additional separate test was conducted to measure the aging behavior of the rubber drive rings. The water pressure reservoir was held constant as 29 psi. Barrier fluid pressure remained relatively constant throughout the duration of the test but was seen to sink to as low as 10.1 psi. No barrier fluid leakage was observed throughout the test. A sudden failure occurred within the seal after the power to test machine was interrupted for a scheduled building maintenance procedure. Upon restarting, the main shaft seal lost all ability to prevent water ingress. The exact cause is not known but is believed to be either a seal assembly issue or a change in the alignment of the seal components during or following the power outage. Following seal disassembly, significant wear was seen on one of the graphite sealing rings. Based on these results it is recommended that a follow-on TEAMER be conducted to rectify protocol and assembly issues to further evaluate SI of this component. The support and participation of Verdant Power Inc, Dovetail Solutions LLC and Garlock Manufacturing Inc were instrumental in understanding the results. NREL thanks them for their significant effort.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Modeling of the Influence of a Damaged Thermally Grown Oxide (TGO) Layer in an Environmental Barrier Coating System

Environmental barrier coatings (EBC) are an enabling technology for the successful application of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in air-breathing gas turbine engines. EBCs are susceptible to a number of failure modes including oxidation/delamination, recessions, chemical attack and dissolution, thermomechanical degradation, erosion, and foreign object impact damage in a combustion environment. Spallation of environmental barrier coating (EBC), induced by a thermally grown oxide (TGO) layer, is a key EBC failure mode. The TGO layer, resulting from steam oxidation, grows either from a silicon bond coat layer (if present) or from a silicon carbide (SiC) based substrate itself. The TGO layer evolves (i.e., thickness increases with time) as water vapor and oxygen gradually diffuse through the EBC, and the EBC spalls off once the TGO layer reaches some critical thickness. The critical thickness of the TGO layer for failure is in the range of 20-30 microns, but it can vary due to exposure temperature, microstructure etc. Current work at NASA Glenn Research Center, under the Revolutionary Tools and Methods (RTM) subproject is aimed at addressing associated failure modes in EBC systems and developing robust analysis tools to aid in the design/analysis of these systems. The objective of the current work is to conduct a sensitivity study to examine the influence of uniformly and non-uniformly grown oxide layers on the associated driving forces leading to spallation of the EBC when subjected to isothermal loading. The effect of damage in the TGO layer on the resulting stress states is also assessed both in uniform and non-uniform TGO layers.

Mital, Subodh K.↗

Understanding the limits of Li-NMC811 half-cells

As we push the boundaries of state-of-the-art lithium-ion intercalation materials, such as nickel-rich chemistries, the ability to isolate and understand specific degradation and performance limitations is becoming increasingly important. Half-cells, wherein lithium metal is employed as a dual counter and reference electrode, are commonly used in industry and academia for this purpose. However, the high reactivity of lithium metal drives premature electrolyte degradation and limits cell lifetime, bringing into question the reliability and validity of this cell configuration. Here we explore the limitations of half-cell studies of LiNi 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 O 2 (NMC811) electrodes with commercially relevant loading. We identify the failure mechanism of this cell configuration through a combination of electrochemical, chemical, and spectroscopic techniques and show that the Li has a direct detrimental impact on the NMC811 chemistry. Our measurements show that vinylene carbonate is critical for these half-cell studies and underpins the cycle limits. Furthermore, we demonstrate the use of Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 (LTO) as an alternative counter electrode for understanding the performance of NMC positive electrode materials, due to its high coulombic efficiency and low reactivity with the organic carbonates routinely employed in lithium-ion battery cell chemistries. These data confirm that NMC811 electrodes can tolerate high voltages (stressed) conditions and that cell failure is mainly a result of crossover effects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Cyber-Informed Engineering Implementation Guide: Version 1.0 [Slides]

This Implementation Guide describes the principles of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) and outlines questions that engineering teams should consider during each phase of a system's lifecycle to effectively employ these principles. It describes what it means to engineer systems in a cyber-informed way, rather than offering a comprehensive, step-by-step process or procedure for CIE implementation. This guide complements - but does not replace - the application of cybersecurity standards or practices currently in place within an organization. Engineers and technicians that design critical energy infrastructure installations can use this Implementation Guide to integrate the 12 principles of CIE into each phase of the engineering lifecycle, from concept to retirement. The guide is aimed at system or design engineers, rather than software engineers or operational cybersecurity practitioners. The engineers who design, build, operate, and maintain the physical infrastructure are best positioned to leverage a system's engineering design to diminish the severity of cyber attacks or digital technology failures. CIE expands cybersecurity decisions into the engineering space, not by asking engineers to become cyber experts, but by calling on engineers to apply engineering tools and make engineering decisions that improve cybersecurity outcomes. CIE examines the engineering consequences that a sophisticated cyber attacker could achieve and drives engineering changes that may provide deterministic mitigations to limit or eliminate those consequences.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Designing an autonomous environment for mission critical operation of the EUVE satellite

Since the launch of NASA's Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) satellite in 1992, there has only been a handful of occurrences that have warranted manual intervention in the EUVE Science Operations Center (ESOC). So, in an effort to reduce costs, the current environment is being redesigned to utilize a combination of off-the-shelf packages and recently developed artificial intelligence (AI) software to automate the monitoring of the science payload and ground systems. The successful implementation of systemic automation would allow the ESOC to evolve from a seven day/week, three shift operation, to a seven day/week one shift operation. First, it was necessary to identify all areas considered mission critical. These were defined as follows: (1) The telemetry stream must be monitored autonomously and anomalies identified. (2) Duty personnel must be automatically paged and informed of the occurrence of an anomaly. (3) The 'basic' state of the ground system must be assessed. (4) Monitors should check that the systems and processes needed to continue in a 'healthy' operational mode are working at all times. (5) Network loads should be monitored to ensure that they stay within established limits. (6) Connectivity to Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) systems should be monitored as well, not just for connectivity of the network itself but also for the ability to transfer files. (7) All necessary peripheral devices should be monitored. This would include the disks, routers, tape drives, printers, tape carousel, and power supplies. (8) System daemons such as the archival daemon, the Sybase server, the payload monitoring software, and any other necessary processes should be monitored to ensure that they are operational. (9) The monitoring system needs to be redundant so that the failure of a single machine will not paralyze the monitors. (10) Notification should be done by means of looking though a table of the pager numbers for current 'on call' personnel. The software should be capable of dialing out to notify, sending email, and producing error logs. (11) The system should have knowledge of when real-time passes and tape recorder dumps will occur and should know that these passes and data transmissions are successful. Once the design criteria were established, the design team split into two groups: one that addressed the tracking, commanding, and health and safety of the science payload and another group that addressed the ground systems and communications aspects of the overall system.

Abedini, Annadiana↗

Machine Learning Enabled Quantitative Risk Assessment of Aerial Wildfire Response

Aerial wildfire operations are high risk and account for a large number of firefighter deaths. Increasing intensity of wildfires is driving a surge in aerial operations, while simultaneously there is growing interest in improving system safety and performance. In this work, wildfire aviation mishaps documented using the SAFECOM system are analyzed using a previously developed framework for hazard extraction and analysis of trends (HEAT). Hazards and specific failure modes are extracted from the narrative data in SAFECOM forms using natural language processing techniques. Metrics for each hazard are calculated, including frequency, rate, and severity. We examine whether these metrics change over time, and whether they are related to metadata, such as region and aircraft type. The results of the hazard analysis are presented in a risk matrix, identifying the highest and lowest risk hazards based on rate of occurrence and average severity. Results identify jumper operations hazards as high-risk, in addition to bucket drop failures, cargo let down failures, and severe weather as medium risk.

machine learning↗

Machine Learning Enabled Quantitative Risk Assessment of Aerial Wildfire Response

Aerial wildfire operations are high risk and account for a large number of firefighter deaths. Increasing intensity of wildfires is driving a surge in aerial operations, while simultaneously there is growing interest in improving system safety and performance. In this work, wildfire aviation mishaps documented using the SAFECOM system are analyzed using a previously developed framework for hazard extraction and analysis of trends (HEAT). Hazards and specific failure modes are extracted from the narrative data in SAFECOM forms using natural language processing techniques. Metrics for each hazard are calculated, including frequency, rate, and severity. We examine whether these metrics change over time, and whether they are related to metadata, such as region and aircraft type. The results of the hazard analysis are presented in a risk matrix, identifying the highest and lowest risk hazards based on rate of occurrence and average severity. Results identify jumper operations hazards as high-risk, in addition to bucket drop failures, cargo let down failures, and severe weather as medium risk.

machine learning↗

Cyber-Informed Engineering Implementation Guide

This Implementation Guide describes the principles of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) and outlines questions that engineering teams should consider during each phase of a system’s lifecycle to effectively employ these principles. It describes what it means to engineer systems in a cyber-informed way, rather than offering a comprehensive, step-by-step process or procedure for CIE implementation. This guide complements—but does not replace—the application of cybersecurity standards or practices currently in place within an organization. Engineers and technicians that design critical energy infrastructure installations can use this Implementation Guide to integrate the 12 principles of CIE into each phase of the engineering lifecycle, from concept to retirement. The guide is aimed at system or design engineers, rather than software engineers or operational cybersecurity practitioners. The engineers who design, build, operate, and maintain the physical infrastructure are best positioned to leverage a system’s engineering design to diminish the severity of cyber attacks or digital technology failures. CIE expands cybersecurity decisions into the engineering space, not by asking engineers to become cyber experts, but by calling on engineers to apply engineering tools and make engineering decisions that improve cybersecurity outcomes. CIE examines the engineering consequences that a sophisticated cyber attacker could achieve and drives engineering changes that may provide deterministic mitigations to limit or eliminate those consequences.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Chemical Interaction of Palladium in Uranium Oxycarbide Nuclear Fuel Kernel

Chemical Interaction of Palladium in Uranium Oxycarbide Nuclear Fuel Kernel Jana Howard1,3, Guang Yang3, Haiyan Zhao1*, Patrick Warren4, Tiankai Yao3, Steven Cavazos4 Elizabeth Sooby Wood4*, Ching-heng Shiau2 1 University of Idaho, Environmental Science, Idaho Falls, Idaho, USA 2 Boise State University, Microscopy and Characterization Suite, Idaho Falls, Idaho, USA 3 Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, Idaho, USA 4 University of Texas San Antonio, Department of Physics and Astronomy, San Antonio, Texas, USA *Corresponding author: haiyanz@uidaho.edu; elizabeth.soobywood@utsa.edu Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel is the preferred choice for the newest and next-generation high-temperature nuclear reactors due to its robust construction [1]. The fuel design effectively contains fission products inside the particle at extremely high temperatures [2]. However, the effect of transition metal fission products on fuel performance and structural integrity remains largely unknown, creating uncertainties in predicting fuel performance and potential failure mechanisms [2]. For example, palladium (Pd) has a strong tendency to form intermetallic phases with uranium (U). These new phases tend to be hard and brittle which could lead to fracture of fuel kernel during irradiation [3,4]. Pd is not normally produced in high concentrations in normal fission reactions however, driving the production of Pd into the locality of a Uranium Oxycarbide (UCO) nuclear fuel provides an opportunity to closely observe the diffusion and chemical interactions. This study focuses on detailed transmission electron microscopy characterization of the intermetallic phases formed by the interaction between a UCO kernel and a Pd bar after annealing at 1100 °C for 100 hours. Figure 1 provides an overview of the UCO kernel in contact with the Pd bar. The UCO-Pd sample surface was examined using a Focused Ion Beam (FIB) Quanta 3D FEG FEI in VCD detector mode at 10kV, 83pA to reveal surface features. Several key surface features in the interaction region were observed including: (1) a small area with dendritic microstructure, (2) color contrast near the UCO kernel and Pd boundary, and (3) darker and lighter regions throughout the sample surface. To analyze diffusion behavior, FIB was used to prepare lamellae from five different areas of the UCO-Pd sample, as well as one for the as-received sample. These lamellae were examined using a Scanning Transmission Electron Microscope ThermoFisher Spectra 300 (STEM-Spectra). Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy results confirmed the diffusion between the UCO fuel and Pd bar. Figure 2 shows the identified phases of UC, UO2, and Pd dispersed throughout the interaction region. It was also found that the Pd concentration decreases as the radial distance from the UCO-Pd interface increases. The Pd concentration was 36.93% atomic fraction 11µm from the interaction region then decreased to 7.51% atomic fraction at 257 µm away from the interaction region. Figure 3 shows how concentrations of U and Pd vary across the interaction zone, highlighting the extent of diffusion. This study confirms that Pd interacts with surrounding material to form U-Pd phase and diffusion zones. These diffusion zones vary in composition depending on its radial distance from the point of contact with the Pd bar. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the fission product behavior in high temperature nuclear fuels, aiding in the prediction and mitigation of potential fuel degradation mechanisms. A B C Fig. 1. SEM micrographs of UCO fuel kernel in contact with solid Pd bar and the lift out locations. Figure 1A shows UCO fuel kernel in contact with solid Pd bar. Figure 1B shows a higher magnification image of the UCO fuel-Pd interaction zone. Figure 1C shows lift out sites for the lamellae. A B C Fig 2. EDS maps reveal the distribution of U, O, and Pd in location 3. Figure 2A shows the distribution of uranium. Figure 2B shows the distribution of oxygen. Figure 2C shows the distribution of palladium. A B C Fig 3. Palladium and uranium concentration across interaction zone in location 2. Figure 3A shows EDS map of lift out number 2. Figure 3B shows a zoomed in EDS map taken from the interaction zone. Figure 3C shows a line graph of uranium and palladium concentrations across the interaction zone. References: 1. B.E. Wells, N.R. Phillips, K.J. Geelhood. Pacific West Laboratory. (2021). TRISO Fuel: Properties and Failure Modes. https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML2117/ML21175A152.pdf (Accessed January 16, 2025). 2. American Nuclear Society. TRISO Fuel Development Progresses in INL, ORNL. https://www.gen-4.org/gif/upload/docs/application/pdf/2014-03/nov13nn_fuel_reprint.pdf (Accessed January 16, 2025) 3. Clark R.A., M.A. Con

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Chemical Interaction of Palladium in Uranium Oxycarbide Nuclear Fuel Kernel

Chemical Interaction of Palladium in Uranium Oxycarbide Nuclear Fuel Kernel Jana Howard1,3, Guang Yang3, Haiyan Zhao1*, Patrick Warren4, Tiankai Yao3, Steven Cavazos4 Elizabeth Sooby Wood4*, Ching-heng Shiau2 1 University of Idaho, Environmental Science, Idaho Falls, Idaho, USA 2 Boise State University, Microscopy and Characterization Suite, Idaho Falls, Idaho, USA 3 Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, Idaho, USA 4 University of Texas San Antonio, Department of Physics and Astronomy, San Antonio, Texas, USA *Corresponding author: haiyanz@uidaho.edu; elizabeth.soobywood@utsa.edu Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel is the preferred choice for the newest and next-generation high-temperature nuclear reactors due to its robust construction [1]. The fuel design effectively contains fission products inside the particle at extremely high temperatures [2]. However, the effect of transition metal fission products on fuel performance and structural integrity remains largely unknown, creating uncertainties in predicting fuel performance and potential failure mechanisms [2]. For example, palladium (Pd) has a strong tendency to form intermetallic phases with uranium (U). These new phases tend to be hard and brittle which could lead to fracture of fuel kernel during irradiation [3,4]. Pd is not normally produced in high concentrations in normal fission reactions however, driving the production of Pd into the locality of a Uranium Oxycarbide (UCO) nuclear fuel provides an opportunity to closely observe the diffusion and chemical interactions. This study focuses on detailed transmission electron microscopy characterization of the intermetallic phases formed by the interaction between a UCO kernel and a Pd bar after annealing at 1100 °C for 100 hours. Figure 1 provides an overview of the UCO kernel in contact with the Pd bar. The UCO-Pd sample surface was examined using a Focused Ion Beam (FIB) Quanta 3D FEG FEI in VCD detector mode at 10kV, 83pA to reveal surface features. Several key surface features in the interaction region were observed including: (1) a small area with dendritic microstructure, (2) color contrast near the UCO kernel and Pd boundary, and (3) darker and lighter regions throughout the sample surface. To analyze diffusion behavior, FIB was used to prepare lamellae from five different areas of the UCO-Pd sample, as well as one for the as-received sample. These lamellae were examined using a Scanning Transmission Electron Microscope ThermoFisher Spectra 300 (STEM-Spectra). Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy results confirmed the diffusion between the UCO fuel and Pd bar. Figure 2 shows the identified phases of UC, UO2, and Pd dispersed throughout the interaction region. It was also found that the Pd concentration decreases as the radial distance from the UCO-Pd interface increases. The Pd concentration was 36.93% atomic fraction 11µm from the interaction region then decreased to 7.51% atomic fraction at 257 µm away from the interaction region. Figure 3 shows how concentrations of U and Pd vary across the interaction zone, highlighting the extent of diffusion. This study confirms that Pd interacts with surrounding material to form U-Pd phase and diffusion zones. These diffusion zones vary in composition depending on its radial distance from the point of contact with the Pd bar. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the fission product behavior in high temperature nuclear fuels, aiding in the prediction and mitigation of potential fuel degradation mechanisms. A B C Fig. 1. SEM micrographs of UCO fuel kernel in contact with solid Pd bar and the lift out locations. Figure 1A shows UCO fuel kernel in contact with solid Pd bar. Figure 1B shows a higher magnification image of the UCO fuel-Pd interaction zone. Figure 1C shows lift out sites for the lamellae. A B C Fig 2. EDS maps reveal the distribution of U, O, and Pd in location 3. Figure 2A shows the distribution of uranium. Figure 2B shows the distribution of oxygen. Figure 2C shows the distribution of palladium. A B C Fig 3. Palladium and uranium concentration across interaction zone in location 2. Figure 3A shows EDS map of lift out number 2. Figure 3B shows a zoomed in EDS map taken from the interaction zone. Figure 3C shows a line graph of uranium and palladium concentrations across the interaction zone. References: 1. B.E. Wells, N.R. Phillips, K.J. Geelhood. Pacific West Laboratory. (2021). TRISO Fuel: Properties and Failure Modes. https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML2117/ML21175A152.pdf (Accessed January 16, 2025). 2. American Nuclear Society. TRISO Fuel Development Progresses in INL, ORNL. https://www.gen-4.org/gif/upload/docs/application/pdf/2014-03/nov13nn_fuel_reprint.pdf (Accessed January 16, 2025) 3. Clark R.A., M.A. Con

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Vault

This new edition of The Vault is another example of our staff’s relentless drive to produce high-quality products. This is the third year we developed this annual magazine. Each volume of The Vault is a labor of love. We do it because we see this as part of our job as stewards of the Lab’s history — and because failure in this critical role is not an option.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Decision Science for Machine Learning (DeSciML)

The increasing use of machine learning (ML) models to support high-consequence decision making drives a need to increase the rigor of ML-based decision making. Critical problems ranging from climate change to nonproliferation monitoring rely on machine learning for aspects of their analyses. Likewise, future technologies, such as incorporation of data-driven methods into the stockpile surveillance and predictive failure analysis for weapons components, will all rely on decision-making that incorporates the output of machine learning models. In this project, our main focus was the development of decision scientific methods that combine uncertainty estimates for machine learning predictions, with a domain-specific model of error costs. Other focus areas include uncertainty measurement in ML predictions, designing decision rules using multiobjecive optimization, the value of uncertainty reduction, and decision-tailored uncertainty quantification for probability estimates. By laying foundations for rigorous decision making based on the predictions of machine learning models, these approaches are directly relevant to every national security mission that applies, or will apply, machine learning to data, most of which entail some decision context.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

A methodology was established to predict thermal barrier coating life in an environment simulative of that experienced by gas turbine airfoils. Specifically, work is being conducted to determine failure modes of thermal barrier coatings in the aircraft engine environment. Analytical studies coupled with appropriate physical and mechanical property determinations are being employed to derive coating life prediction model(s) on the important failure mode(s). An initial review of experimental and flight service components indicates that the predominant mode of TBC failure involves thermomechanical spallation of the ceramic coating layer. This ceramic spallation involves the formation of a dominant crack in the ceramic coating parallel to and closely adjacent to the metal-ceramic interface. Initial results from a laboratory test program designed to study the influence of various driving forces such as temperature, thermal cycle frequency, environment, and coating thickness, on ceramic coating spalling life suggest that bond coat oxidation damage at the metal-ceramic interface contributes significantly to thermomechanical cracking in the ceramic layer. Low cycle rate furnace testing in air and in argon clearly shows a dramatic increase of spalling life in the non-oxidizing environments.

Sheffler, K. D.↗

Deep Space 1 flight experience: adventures on an ion drive (AAS 02-072)

This paper provides a brief overview of the DSI attitude control subsystem, shares a few lessons-learned, and describes some of the many daunting challenges faced by our tiny flight team during the course of the mission. Special focus will be given to the nuances of flying a spacecraft with ion propulsion, our nick-of-time rewrite of the attitude determination software after the failure of the on-board star tracker in late 1999, and DSl's subsequent successful flyby of comet Borrelly on September 22, 2001.

SEP ion propulsion DS1 flight experience↗

Reliability Improvement by Fault-Tolerant Operation of NPC Inverter for Motor Driving

The high-reliability operation of three-level inverters is crucial to prevent equipment damage, process downtime, and economic losses. This article investigates a three-level neutral-point-clamped inverter under all possible combinations of open-circuit and short-circuit faults and proposes a new postfault operation method without adding extra hardware. This method provides comprehensive solution for operations after single and multiple-device failures, increasing the inverter reliability by 24%. This article classified postfault modulations and uncovered previously unknown fault scenarios that can be addressed using the proposed control method. A new postfault modulation based on space vector modulation with virtual vectors is proposed. The feasibility of the proposed control method is verified by simulation and an experiment for one fault scenario in a three-level neutral-point-clamped inverter with a 3.73 kW motor load. Furthermore, this article contributes to improving the reliability of three-level inverters.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SiC Multi-Chip Power Modules as Power-System Building Blocks

The term "SiC MCPMs" (wherein "MCPM" signifies "multi-chip power module") denotes electronic power-supply modules containing multiple silicon carbide power devices and silicon-on-insulator (SOI) control integrated-circuit chips. SiC MCPMs are being developed as building blocks of advanced expandable, reconfigurable, fault-tolerant power-supply systems. Exploiting the ability of SiC semiconductor devices to operate at temperatures, breakdown voltages, and current densities significantly greater than those of conventional Si devices, the designs of SiC MCPMs and of systems comprising multiple SiC MCPMs are expected to afford a greater degree of miniaturization through stacking of modules with reduced requirements for heat sinking. Moreover, the higher-temperature capabilities of SiC MCPMs could enable operation in environments hotter than Si-based power systems can withstand. The stacked SiC MCPMs in a given system can be electrically connected in series, parallel, or a series/parallel combination to increase the overall power-handling capability of the system. In addition to power connections, the modules have communication connections. The SOI controllers in the modules communicate with each other as nodes of a decentralized control network, in which no single controller exerts overall command of the system. Control functions effected via the network include synchronization of switching of power devices and rapid reconfiguration of power connections to enable the power system to continue to supply power to a load in the event of failure of one of the modules. In addition to serving as building blocks of reliable power-supply systems, SiC MCPMs could be augmented with external control circuitry to make them perform additional power-handling functions as needed for specific applications: typical functions could include regulating voltages, storing energy, and driving motors. Because identical SiC MCPM building blocks could be utilized in a variety of ways, the cost and difficulty of designing new, highly reliable power systems would be reduced considerably. Several prototype DC-to-DC power-converter modules containing SiC power-switching devices were designed and built to demonstrate the feasibility of the SiC MCPM concept. In anticipation of a future need for operation at high temperature, the circuitry in the modules includes high-temperature inductors and capacitors. These modules were designed to be stacked to construct a system of four modules electrically connected in series and/or parallel. The packaging of the modules is designed to satisfy requirements for series and parallel interconnection among modules, high power density, high thermal efficiency, small size, and light weight. Each module includes four output power connectors two for serial and two for parallel output power connections among the modules. Each module also includes two signal connectors, electrically isolated from the power connectors, that afford four zones for signal interconnections among the SOI controllers. Finally, each module includes two input power connectors, through which it receives power from an in-line power bus. This design feature is included in anticipation of a custom-designed power bus incorporating sockets compatible with snap-on type connectors to enable rapid replacement of failed modules.

Lostetter, Alexander↗

Climate and the Global Famine of 1876-78

From 1875 to 1878, concurrent multiyear droughts in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, referred to as the Great Drought, caused widespread crop failures, catalyzing the so-called Global Famine, which had fatalities exceeding 50 million people and long-lasting societal consequences. Observations, paleoclimate reconstructions, and climate model simulations are used 1) to demonstrate the severity and characterize the evolution of drought across different regions, and 2) to investigate the underlying mechanisms driving its multiyear persistence. Severe or record-setting droughts occurred on continents in both hemispheres and in multiple seasons, with the "Monsoon Asia" region being the hardest hit, experiencing the single most intense and the second most expansive drought in the last 800 years. The extreme severity, duration, and extent of this global event is associated with an extraordinary combination of preceding cool tropical Pacific conditions (1870-76), a record-breaking El Nino (1877-78), a record strong Indian Ocean dipole (1877), and record warm North Atlantic Ocean (1878) conditions. Composites of historical analogs and two sets of ensemble simulations - one forced with global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and another forced with tropical Pacific SST - were used to distinguish the role of the extreme conditions in different ocean basins. While the drought in most regions was largely driven by the tropical Pacific SST conditions, an extreme positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole and warm North Atlantic SSTs, both likely aided by the strong El Nino in 1877-78, intensified and prolonged droughts in Australia and Brazil, respectively, and extended the impact to northern and southeastern Africa. Climatic conditions that caused the Great Drought and Global Famine arose from natural variability, and their recurrence, with hydrological impacts intensified by global warming, could again potentially undermine global food security.

multi-year drought↗