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NASA NTRS1999

Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station

Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/micrometer), 1 MeV alpha-particles (LET=100 keV/micrometer), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/micrometer) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 micrometer(2). Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10(-2)% (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10(-3)%-0. 514x10(-2)%). For alpha-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence. Probability density functions for high-LET radiation quality and dose-rate may be preferable to conventional risk assessment approaches. Nuclear reactions and track structure effects in tissue may not be properly estimated by existing data using in vitro models for estimating RBEs. The method used here is being extended to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft shielding effectiveness in various space radiation environments.

NASA Center LaRC↗

NASA NTRS2014

Grid2: A Program for Rapid Estimation of the Jovian Radiation Environment: A Numeric Implementation of the GIRE2 Jovian Radiation Model for Estimating Trapped Radiation for Mission Concept Studies

Grid2 is a program that utilizes the Galileo Interim Radiation Electron model 2 (GIRE2) Jovian radiation model to compute fluences and doses for Jupiter missions. (Note: The iterations of these two softwares have been GIRE and GIRE2; likewise Grid and Grid2.) While GIRE2 is an important improvement over the original GIRE radiation model, the GIRE2 model can take as long as a day or more to compute these quantities for a complete mission. Grid2 fits the results of the detailed GIRE2 code with a set of grids in local time and position thereby greatly speeding up the execution of the model--minutes as opposed to days. The Grid2 model covers the time period from 1971 to 2050and distances of 1.03 to 30 Jovian diameters (Rj). It is available as a direct-access database through a FORTRAN interface program. The new database is only slightly larger than the original grid version: 1.5 gigabytes (GB) versus 1.2 GB.

Europa↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Comparison of Model Calculation and Measurement of Absorbed Dose for Proton Irradiation

With the increase in the amount of time spent EVA that is necessary to complete the construction and subsequent maintenance of ISS, it will become increasingly important for ground support personnel to accurately characterize the radiation exposures incurred by EVA crewmembers. Since exposure measurements cannot be taken within the organs of interest, it is necessary to estimate these exposures by calculation. To validate the methods and tools used to develop these estimates, it is necessary to model experiments performed in a controlled environment. This work is such an effort. A human phantom was outfitted with detector equipment and then placed in American EMU and Orlan-M EVA space suits. The suited phantom was irradiated at the LLUPTF with proton beams of known energies. Absorbed dose measurements were made by the spaceflight operational dosimetrist from JSC at multiple sites in the skin, eye, brain, stomach, and small intestine locations in the phantom. These exposures are then modeled using the BRYNTRN radiation transport code developed at the NASA Langley Research Center, and the CAM (computerized anatomical male) human geometry model of Billings and Yucker. Comparisons of absorbed dose calculations with measurements show excellent agreement. This suggests that there is reason to be confident in the ability of both the transport code and the human body model to estimate proton exposure in ground-based laboratory experiments.

Zapp, N.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Microbial Risk Assessment

Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose-response characteristics may be affected by a potentially dysfunctional crew immune system during a mission. In addition, microbial virulence has been shown to change under certain conditions during spaceflight, further complicating dose-response characterization. An initial study of the applicability of microbial risk assessment techniques was performed using Crew Health Care System (CHeCS) operational data from the International Space Station potable water systems. The risk of infection from potable water was selected as the flight systems and microbial ecology are well defined. This initial study confirmed the feasibility of using microbial risk assessment modeling for spaceflight systems. While no immediate threat was detected, the study identified several medically significant microorganisms that could pose a health risk if uncontrolled. The study also identified several specific knowledge gaps in making a risk assessment and noted that filling these knowledge gaps is essential as the risk estimates may change by orders of magnitude depending on the answers. The current phase of the microbial risk assessment studies focuses on the dose-response relationship of specific infectious agents, focusing on Salmonella enterica Typhimurium, Pseudomonas spp., and Escherichia coli, as their evaluation will provide a better baseline for determining the overall hazard characterization. The organisms were chosen as they either have been isolated on spacecraft or have an identified route of infection during a mission. The characterization will utilize dose-response models selected either from the peer-reviewed literature and/or by using statistical approaches. Development of these modeling and risk assessment techniques will help to optimize flight requirements and to protect the safety, health, and performance of the crew.

Ott, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Development and application of a 3-D geometry/mass model for LDEF satellite ionizing radiation assessments

A computer model of the three dimensional geometry and material distributions for the LDEF spacecraft, experiment trays, and, for selected trays, the components of experiments within a tray was developed for use in ionizing radiation assessments. The model is being applied to provide 3-D shielding distributions around radiation dosimeters to aid in data interpretation, particularly in assessing the directional properties of the radiation exposure. Also, the model has been interfaced with radiation transport codes for 3-D dosimetry response predictions and for calculations related to determining the accuracy of trapped proton and cosmic ray environment models. The methodology is described used in developing the 3-D LDEF model and the level of detail incorporated. Currently, the trays modeled in detail are F2, F8, and H12 and H3. Applications of the model which are discussed include the 3-D shielding distributions around various dosimeters, the influence of shielding on dosimetry responses, and comparisons of dose predictions based on the present 3-D model vs those from 1-D geometry model approximations used in initial estimates.

Colborn, B. L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Human exposure to galactic cosmic rays in space

The Langley Research Center GCR (galactic cosmic rays) code (HZETRN) and the computerized Anatomical Man (CAM) model are used to estimate astronaut exposures, from GCR particles, for missions beyond earth's magnetosphere. Conventional risk assessments in terms of total absorbed dose and dose equivalent are made for skin, ocular lens, and bone marrow. For each organ, evaluations are made of relative contributions from incident protons, iron nuclei, and their secondary reaction products.

Townsend, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Problems in Assessment of the UV Penetration into Natural Waters from Space-based Measurements

Satellite instruments currently provide global maps of surface UV (ultraviolet) irradiance by combining backscattered radiance data with radiative transfer models. The models are often limited by uncertainties in physical input parameters of the atmosphere and surface. Global mapping of the underwater UV irradiance creates further challenges for the models. The uncertainties in physical input parameters become more serious because of the presence of absorbing and scattering quantities caused by biological processes within the oceans. In this paper we summarize the problems encountered in the assessment of the underwater UV irradiance from space-based measurements, and propose approaches to resolve the problems. We have developed a radiative transfer scheme for computation of the UV irradiance in the atmosphere-ocean system. The scheme makes use of input parameters derived from satellite instruments such as TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) and SeaWiFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor). The major problem in assessment of the surface UV irradiance is to accurately quantify the effects of clouds. Unlike the standard TOMS UV algorithm, we use the cloud fraction products available from SeaWiFS and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) to calculate instantaneous surface flux at the ocean surface. Daily UV doses can be calculated by assuming a model of constant cloudiness throughout the day. Both SeaWiFS and MODIS provide some estimates of seawater optical properties in the visible. To calculate the underwater UV flux the seawater optical properties must be extrapolated down to shorter wavelengths. Currently, the problem of accurate extrapolation of visible data down to the UV spectral range is not solved completely, and there are few available measurements. The major difficulty is insufficient correlation between photosynthetic and photoprotective pigments of phytoplankton absorbing in the visible and UV respectively. We propose to empirically parameterize seawater absorption in the UV on a basis of available data sets of bio-optical measurements from a variety of ocean waters. Another problem is the lack of reliable data on pure seawater absorption in the UV. Laboratory measurements of the UV absorption of both pure water and pure seawater are required.

Vasilkov, Alexander P.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Mutagenic effects of a single and an exact number of alpha particles in mammalian cells

One of the main uncertainties in risk estimation for environmental radon exposure using lung cancer data from underground miners is the extrapolation from high- to low-dose exposure where multiple traversal is extremely rare. The biological effects of a single alpha particle are currently unknown. Using the recently available microbeam source at the Radiological Research Accelerator Facility at Columbia University, we examined the frequencies and molecular spectrum of S1- mutants induced in human-hamster hybrid (A(L)) cells by either a single or an exact number of alpha particles. Exponentially growing cells were stained briefly with a nontoxic concentration of Hoechst dye for image analysis, and the location of individual cells was computer-monitored. The nucleus of each cell was irradiated with either 1,2,4, or 8 alpha particles at a linear energy transfer of 90 keV/microm consistent with the energy spectrum of domestic radon exposure. Although single-particle traversal was only slightly cytotoxic to A(L) cells (survival fraction approximately 0.82), it was highly mutagenic, and the induced mutant fraction averaged 110 mutants per 10(5) survivors. In addition, both toxicity and mutant induction were dose-dependent. Multiplex PCR analysis of mutant DNA showed that the proportion of mutants with multilocus deletions increased with the number of particle traversals. These data provide direct evidence that a single a particle traversing a nucleus will have a high probability of resulting in a mutation and highlight the need for radiation protection at low doses.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS2019

Statistical Modeling of Quiet Sonic Boom Community Response Survey Data

The existing ban on commercial supersonic flight overland is largely due to the effects of loud and startling sonic booms on communities. NASA is planning a nationwide campaign of community response surveys using the experimental X-59 Quiet SuperSonic Technology (X-59 QueSST) aircraft to understand how communities perceive the sounds of quiet supersonic flight. The X-59 community response survey data will be presented to noise regulators, who are considering replacing the ban with a noise-based certification limit so quiet supersonic vehicles can fly over land. In this document, we use pilot community response survey data to explore and assess multiple approaches to statistically model the dose-response relationship between single-event sonic boom sound exposure and human annoyance. The models have two primary functions—estimating two types of quantities that support setting regulations and experimental design of future surveys.

Jasme Lee↗

NASA NTRS2006

Time Serial Analysis of the Induced LEO Environment within the ISS 6A

Anisotropies in the low Earth orbit (LEO) radiation environment were found to influence the thermoluminescence detectors (TLD) dose within the (International Space Station) ISS 7A Service Module. Subsequently, anisotropic environmental models with improved dynamic time extrapolation have been developed including westward and northern drifts using AP8 Min & Max as estimates of the historic spatial distribution of trapped protons in the 1965 and 1970 era, respectively. In addition, a directional dependent geomagnetic cutoff model was derived for geomagnetic field configurations from the 1945 to 2020 time frame. A dynamic neutron albedo model based on our atmospheric radiation studies has likewise been required to explain LEO neutron measurements. The simultaneous measurements of dose and dose rate using four Liulin instruments at various locations in the US LAB and Node 1 has experimentally demonstrated anisotropic effects in ISS 6A and are used herein to evaluate the adequacy of these revised environmental models.

Wilson, John W.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Evaluation of the Emergency Response Dose Assessment System(ERDAS)

The emergency response dose assessment system (ERDAS) is a protype software and hardware system configured to produce routine mesoscale meteorological forecasts and enhanced dispersion estimates on an operational basis for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) region. ERDAS provides emergency response guidance to operations at KSC/CCAS in the case of an accidental hazardous material release or an aborted vehicle launch. This report describes the evaluation of ERDAS including: evaluation of sea breeze predictions, comparison of launch plume location and concentration predictions, case study of a toxic release, evaluation of model sensitivity to varying input parameters, evaluation of the user interface, assessment of ERDA's operational capabilities, and a comparison of ERDAS models to the ocean breeze dry gultch diffusion model.

Evans, Randolph J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Detailed Comparison of Observed Dose-Time Profile of October 19-20, 1989 SPE on Mir with Model Calculations

The dose rate dynamics of the October 19-20,1989 solar energetic particle (SPE) event as observed by the Liulin instrument onboard the Mir orbital station was analyzed in light of new calculations of the geomagnetic cutoff and improved estimates of the less than 100 MeV energy spectra from the GOES satellite instrument. The new calculations were performed using the as-flown Mir orbital trajectory and includes time variations of the cutoff rigidity due to changes in the kappa (sub p) index. Although the agreement of total event integrated calculated dose to the measured dose is good, it results from some measured dose-time profile been higher and some lower than model calculations. They point to the need to include the diurnal variation of the geomagnetic cutoff and modifications of the cutoffs to variations in kappa (sub p) in model calculations. Understanding of such events in light of the upcoming construction of the International Space Station during the period of maximum solar activity needs to be vigorously pursued.

Badhwar, Gautam D.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Ames collaborative study of cosmic ray neutrons

The results of a collaborative study to define both the neutron flux and the spectrum more precisely and to develop a dosimetry package that can be flown quickly to altitude for solar flare events are described. Instrumentation and analysis techniques were used which were developed to measure accelerator-produced radiation. The instruments were flown in the Ames Research Center high altitude aircraft. Neutron instrumentation consisted of Bonner spheres with both active and passive detector elements, threshold detectors of both prompt-counter and activation-element types, a liquid scintillation spectrometer based on pulse-shape discrimination, and a moderated BF3 counter neutron monitor. In addition, charged particles were measured with a Reuter-Stokes ionization chamber system and dose equivalent with another instrument. Preliminary results from the first series of flights at 12.5 km (41,000 ft) are presented, including estimates of total neutron flux intensity and spectral shape and of the variation of intensity with altitude and geomagnetic latitude.

Hewitt, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Evaluations of Risks from the Lunar and Mars Radiation Environments

Protecting astronauts from the space radiation environments requires accurate projections of radiation in future space missions. Characterization of the ionizing radiation environment is challenging because the interplanetary plasma and radiation fields are modulated by solar disturbances and the radiation doses received by astronauts in interplanetary space are likewise influenced. The galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) flux for the next solar cycle was estimated as a function of interplanetary deceleration potential, which has been derived from GCR flux and Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last 4 decades. For the chaotic nature of solar particle event (SPE) occurrence, the mean frequency of SPE at any given proton fluence threshold during a defined mission duration was obtained from a Poisson process model using proton fluence measurements of SPEs during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23). Analytic energy spectra of 34 historically large SPEs were constructed over broad energy ranges extending to GeV. Using an integrated space radiation model (which includes the transport codes HZETRN [1] and BRYNTRN [2], and the quantum nuclear interaction model QMSFRG[3]), the propagation and interaction properties of the energetic nucleons through various media were predicted. Risk assessment from GCR and SPE was evaluated at the specific organs inside a typical spacecraft using CAM [4] model. The representative risk level at each event size and their standard deviation were obtained from the analysis of 34 SPEs. Risks from different event sizes and their frequency of occurrences in a specified mission period were evaluated for the concern of acute health effects especially during extra-vehicular activities (EVA). The results will be useful for the development of an integrated strategy of optimizing radiation protection on the lunar and Mars missions. Keywords: Space Radiation Environments; Galactic Cosmic Radiation; Solar Particle Event; Radiation Risk; Risk Analysis; Radiation Protection.

Kim, Myung-Hee↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimating Sonic Boom Metrics Across a Community Using a Kalman Filter

As part of the Quesst mission, NASA will fly the X‑59 aircraft over selected communities to evaluate community responses to low-intensity sonic booms. The purpose of these community tests is to determine the dose-response relationship between the noise exposure metrics and the community response. The independent variables for the dose-response relationship are the noise exposure metrics experienced by survey respondents within the community. Two sources of noise exposure metrics are available in each community: measurements at sparse locations throughout the community, and calculations from propagation models across the community. Both the measurements and calculations are subject to uncertainty. A Kalman filter is proposed to combine the measured and calculated noise exposure metrics to obtain the best estimate of the true noise exposure metrics across the community. The noise exposure metrics estimated by the Kalman filter have lower uncertainty than either the measured or calculated noise exposure metrics alone. Simulations demonstrate that the Kalman filter produces a more accurate estimate of the true noise exposure metrics than other noise estimation methods.

Sonic boom↗

NASA NTRS1995

Solar Particle Induced Upsets in the TDRS-1 Attitude Control System RAM During the October 1989 Solar Particle Events

The three large solar particle events, beginning on October 19, 1989 and lasting approximately six days, were characterized by high fluences of solar protons and heavy ions at 1 AU. During these events, an abnormally large number of upsets (243) were observed in the random access memory of the attitude control system (ACS) control processing electronics (CPE) on-board the geosynchronous TDRS-1 (Telemetry and Data Relay Satellite). The RAM unit affected was composed of eight Fairchild 93L422 memory chips. The Galileo spacecraft, launched on October 18, 1989 (one day prior to the solar particle events) observed the fluxes of heavy ions experienced by TDRS-1. Two solid-state detector telescopes on-board Galileo, designed to measure heavy ion species and energy, were turned on during time periods within each of the three separate events. The heavy ion data have been modeled and the time history of the events reconstructed to estimate heavy ion fluences. These fluences were converted to effective LET spectra after transport through the estimated shielding distribution around the TDRS-1 ACS system. The number of single event upsets (SEU) expected was calculated by integrating the measured cross section for the Fairchild 93L422 memory chip with average effective LET spectrum. The expected number of heavy ion induced SEU's calculated was 176. GOES-7 proton data, observed during the solar particle events, were used to estimate the number of proton-induced SEU's by integrating the proton fluence spectrum incident on the memory chips, with the two-parameter Bendel cross section for proton SEU'S. The proton fluence spectrum at the device level was gotten by transporting the protons through the estimated shielding distribution. The number of calculated proton-induced SEU's was 72, yielding a total of 248 predicted SEU'S, very dose to the 243 observed SEU'S. These calculations uniquely demonstrate the roles that solar heavy ions and protons played in the production of SEU's during the October 1989 solar particle events.

Croley, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Effect of Sampling Schedule on Pharmacokinetic Parameter Estimates of Promethazine in Astronauts

Six astronauts on the Shuttle Transport System (STS) participated in an investigation on the pharmacokinetics of promethazine (PMZ), a medication used for the treatment of space motion sickness (SMS) during flight. Each crewmember completed the protocol once during flight and repeated thirty days after returned to Earth. Saliva samples were collected at scheduled times for 72 h after PMZ administration; more frequent samples were collected on the ground than during flight owing to schedule constraints in flight. PMZ concentrations in saliva were determined by a liquid chromatographic/mass spectrometric (LC-MS) assay and pharmacokinetic parameters (PKPs) were calculated using actual flight and ground-based data sets and using time-matched sampling schedule on ground to that during flight. Volume of distribution (V(sub c)) and clearance (Cl(sub s),) decreased during flight compared to that from time-matched ground data set; however, Cl(sub s) and V(sub c) estimates were higher for all subjects when partial ground data sets were used for analysis. Area under the curve (AUC) normalized with administered dose was similar in flight and partial ground data; however AUC was significantly lower using time-matched sampling compared with the full data set on ground. Half life (t(sub 1/2)) was longest during flight, shorter with matched-sampling schedule on ground and shortest when complete data set from ground was used. Maximum concentration (C(sub max)), time for C(sub max), (t(sub max)), parameters of drug absorption, depicted a similar trend with lowest and longest respectively, during flight, lower with time-matched ground data and highest and shortest with full ground data.

Boyd, Jason L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

GCR Environmental Models I: Sensitivity Analysis for GCR Environments

Accurate galactic cosmic ray (GCR) models are required to assess crew exposure during long-duration missions to the Moon or Mars. Many of these models have been developed and compared to available measurements, with uncertainty estimates usually stated to be less than 15%. However, when the models are evaluated over a common epoch and propagated through to effective dose, relative differences exceeding 50% are observed. This indicates that the metrics used to communicate GCR model uncertainty can be better tied to exposure quantities of interest for shielding applications. This is the first of three papers focused on addressing this need. In this work, the focus is on quantifying the extent to which each GCR ion and energy group, prior to entering any shielding material or body tissue, contributes to effective dose behind shielding. Results can be used to more accurately calibrate model-free parameters and provide a mechanism for refocusing validation efforts on measurements taken over important energy regions. Results can also be used as references to guide future nuclear cross-section measurements and radiobiology experiments. It is found that GCR with Z>2 and boundary energies below 500 MeV/n induce less than 5% of the total effective dose behind shielding. This finding is important given that most of the GCR models are developed and validated against Advanced Composition Explorer/Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer (ACE/CRIS) measurements taken below 500 MeV/n. It is therefore possible for two models to very accurately reproduce the ACE/CRIS data while inducing very different effective dose values behind shielding.

Slaba, Tony C.↗