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At least 307 records · Page 17

Residual Stress Modeling and Advanced Diffraction Measurements of 347H Steel Weldments

The 347H stainless steel is a primary high-temperature material for many energy and power generation industries. Stress relief cracking (SRC) has been a particular concern in welding of this material. The residual stress induced by welding and its evolution during post-welding heat treatment (PWHT) and subsequent operating and service conditions is one of the primary factors contributing to SRC. The lifetime of welded structure components is also controlled by the precipitation kinetics that accompanies PWHT, stress relaxation process, and long-term aging and complex synergistic factors. Various theories have been proposed in the past to explain SRC. However, a widely accepted approach to predicting the entire damage evolution and the resulting performance reduction is still lacking. This study is to demonstrate a reliable solution for two critical issues that affect the predictions. First, the residual stress distribution obtained from both simulation and neutron diffraction is compared, which increases the accuracy of mechanical analysis simulation model and therefore builds a solid basis for the lifetime prediction model. Second, the generation, evolution, and annihilation of precipitates are monitored by the synchrotron diffraction experiment. Preliminary results demonstrate the critical importance of precipitation kinetics on the residual stress distribution/redistribution during heat treatments.

Yang, Yi↗

Toroidal modeling of runaway electron loss due to 3-D fields in DIII-D and COMPASS

The 3-D field induced relativistic runaway electron (RE) loss has been simulated for DIII-D, COMPASS and ITER plasmas, utilizing the MARS-F code incorporated with the recently developed and updated RE orbit module (REORBIT). Modeling shows effectively 100% loss of a post-disruption, high-current runaway beam in DIII-D, due to the 1 kG level of magnetic field perturbation produced by a fast growing n = 1 resistive kink instability. The RE loss is shown to be independent of the particle energy or the initial location of particles in the configuration space. Applied resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) fields from in-vessel coils are not effective for RE beam mitigation in DIII-D, but do produce finite (>10%) RE loss in COMPASS, consistent with experimental observations in above two devices. The major reasons for this difference in RE control by RMP between these two devices are (i) the coil proximity to the RE beam and (ii) the effective coil current scaling versus the machine size and the toroidal magnetic field. About 10% RE loss fraction is also predicted for an ITER 15 MA scenario with pre-disruption plasma, highlighting the role of the plasma response. Up to 30% loss is computed, however, by artificially scaling the equilibrium pressure to zero. This is due to the more resistive plasma response and stronger resulting field line stochasticity. Distributions of the lost REs to the limiting surface show poloidally peaked profile near the high-field-side in both DIII-D and COMPASS, covering about 100o poloidal angle. Higher perturbation field level and/or higher particle energy also result in REs being lost to the low-field-side of the limiting surface of these two devices, increasing the effective wetted area. Finally, for the modeled ITER plasmas, the applied RMP field, with optimal poloidal spectrum that maximizes the edge localized mode control, leads to REs being lost to the lower divertor region of the limiting surface within a narrow poloidal band.

3-D field↗

Consideration of the Aluminum Distribution in Zeolites in Theoretical and Experimental Catalysis Research

Research efforts in zeolite catalysis have become increasingly cognizant of the diversity in structure and function resulting from the distribution of framework aluminum atoms, through emerging reports of catalytic phenomena that fall outside those recognizable as the shape-selective ones emblematic of its earlier history. Molecular-level descriptions of how active-site distributions affect catalysis are an aspirational goal articulated frequently in experimental and theoretical research, yet they are limited by imprecise knowledge of the structure and behavior of the zeolite materials under interrogation. In experimental research, higher precision can result from more reliable control of structure during synthesis and from more robust and quantitative structural and kinetic characterization probes. In theoretical research, construction of models with specific aluminum locations and distributions seldom capture the heterogeneity inherent to the materials studied by experiment. In this Perspective, we discuss research findings that appropriately frame the challenges in developing more predictive synthesis-structure-function relations for zeolites, highlighting studies on ZSM-5 zeolites that are among the most structurally complex molecular sieve frameworks and the most widely studied because of their versatility in commercial applications. We discuss research directions to address these challenges and forge stronger connections between zeolite structure, composition, and active sites to catalytic function. Such connections promise to aid in bridging the findings of theoretical and experimental catalysis research, and transforming zeolite active site design from an empirical endeavor into a more predictable science founded on validated models.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Large Divergence of Projected High Latitude Vegetation Composition and Productivity Due To Functional Trait Uncertainty

Abstract Vegetation distribution and composition are expected to change in northern high latitudes under rapid warming, which regulates ecosystem functions but remains challenging to predict. Vegetation change arises from the interplay of chronic climate trends such as warming and transient demographic processes of recruitment, growth, competition, and mortality. Most predictive models overlooked the role of demographic dynamics controlled by plant traits. Here, we simulate vegetation dynamics at the Kougarok Hillslope site in Alaska under historical and future climates using the E3SM Land Model coupled to the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Simulator (ELM‐FATES). To evaluate the roles of plant traits, we parameterize the model with 5,265 trait configurations representing diverse physiological and demographic strategies. Results show current modeled biomass, composition, and productivity are most sensitive to traits controlling photosynthetic capacity, carbon allocation, allometry, and phenology. Among all trait configurations, ∼5% reproduce in situ biomass and plant functional type (PFT) composition measured in 2016, that are indistinguishable from these two observed ecosystem states. Notably, these same trait configurations produce diverging biomass, composition, and productivity under future climate, where the uncertainty attributable to traits is twice the change attributable to climate change. The variation of projected productivity arises from emerging PFT composition under novel climate regimes, primarily explained by traits controlling cold‐induced mortality, recruitment, and allometry. Our findings highlight the importance and uncertainty of demographic dynamics and its interaction with climate change in shaping Arctic vegetation change. Improved model predictions will likely benefit from explicit consideration of vegetation demography and better constraints of critical traits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Model Predictive Control Based Generator Start-Up Optimization Strategy for Restoration With Microgrids as Black-Start Resources

Microgrids (MGs) can operate in an islanded mode and serve as black-start resources for power system restoration (PSR). Here, a model predictive control (MPC) based generator start-up optimization strategy for PSR is proposed utilizing MGs as black-start resources. First, the generator start-up sequence (GSUS) optimization is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming. Then, the uncertainties of MG black-start resources (MBSRs) are modeled by discretizing the probability distribution of the forecast errors, and representative scenarios for MBSRs extracted by formulating the probability mass transportation problem. Third, the generator start-up optimization strategy considering MBSRs is proposed utilizing the MPC technique, in which the optimization objective is to maximize the energy capability of the power systems and minimize the load curtailment of the MGs in each looking-ahead interval. Simulations on the IEEE 118 bus system with MGs and Zhejiang provincial power system in China verify that the introduced strategy for PSR can successfully restore the power system and effectively determine the optimal GSUS.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Robust Distribution System Load Restoration With Time-Dependent Cold Load Pickup

Service restoration is one of the critical functions to enable the future self-healing distribution system. To restore the distribution system in a timely and reliable manner, the realistic system operating conditions need to be accurately characterized. Here, two main factors that have great impacts on distribution system restoration (DSR) in practice are investigated. First, cold load pickup (CLPU), generally caused by thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs), is a common phenomenon after an outage and shaped by the outage duration. However, the time-dependent behaviors of CLPU are rarely considered in literature. In this paper, the operating state evolution of TCLs after an outage is analyzed to characterize time-dependent CLPU. And the time-dependent CLPU is analytically embedded in DSR to accurately represent the actual behaviors of the restored loads. Second, it is difficult to predict loads that fluctuate during DSR due to the lack of real-time measurement data. Accordingly, a robust DSR based on the information gap decision theory (IGDT) is proposed to address this challenge, fully considering the uncertainty of CLPU. The proposed models are tested in IEEE 13-node and 123-node test feeders. Simulation results demonstrate that the time-dependent CLPU model and the uncertainty modeling of CLPU can accurately capture the actual behaviors of loads with TCLs after an outage, which greatly improves DSR decisions in practice.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hierarchical Control of Megawatt-Scale Charging Stations for Electric Trucks with Distributed Energy Resources

Electrifying medium- and heavy-duty trucks is critical to decarbonizing the transportation sector. Energy needs of electric trucks will likely require megawatt-scale charging stations, which could significantly stress the electric distribution grid. Distributed energy resources (DER) can alleviate this stress and reduce charging costs with proper management. To that end, this work develops a hierarchical predictive control algorithm for future multi-port megawatt-scale charging stations that can provide real-time energy management for stations, decide charging rates, dispatch energy storage system (ESS), and provide grid voltage support. We integrate three algorithmic components: (i) an energy management optimization (EMO) that provides supervisory control to DER assets and charging loads at minute scale, (ii) a real-time energy management system (RT-EMS) that heuristically compensates for fast disturbances at sub-second scale, and (iii) a model predictive control (MPC)-based battery management system (BMS) that communicates future charging demands to the EMO, to manage the overall megawatt-scale site. Additionally, validation in a controller hardware-in-the-loop (CHIL) environment shows that the hierarchical controller can reduce the total energy consumption from the grid by approximately 28% compared to an uncontrolled case for the station configuration in this paper, without impacting charging time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

RECOVERY ACT: DYNAMIC ENERGY CONSUMPTION MANAGEMENT OF ROUTING TELECOM AND DATA CENTERS THROUGH REAL-TIME OPTIMAL CONTROL (RTOC): Final Scientific/Technical Report

This final scientific report documents the Industrial Technology Program (ITP) Stage 2 Concept Development effort on Data Center Energy Reduction and Management Through Real-Time Optimal Control (RTOC). Society is becoming increasingly dependent on information technology systems, driving exponential growth in demand for data center processing and an insatiable appetite for energy. David Raths noted, 'A 50,000-square-foot data center uses approximately 4 megawatts of power, or the equivalent of 57 barrels of oil a day1.' The problem has become so severe that in some cases, users are giving up raw performance for a better balance between performance and energy efficiency. Historically, power systems for data centers were crudely sized to meet maximum demand. Since many servers operate at 60%-90% of maximum power while only utilizing an average of 5% to 15% of their capability, there are huge inefficiencies in the consumption and delivery of power in these data centers. The goal of the 'Recovery Act: Decreasing Data Center Energy Use through Network and Infrastructure Control' is to develop a state of the art approach for autonomously and intelligently reducing and managing data center power through real-time optimal control. Advances in microelectronics and software are enabling the opportunity to realize significant data center power savings through the implementation of autonomous power management control algorithms. The first step to realizing these savings was addressed in this study through the successful creation of a flexible and scalable mathematical model (equation) for data center behavior and the formulation of an acceptable low technical risk market introduction strategy leveraging commercial hardware and software familiar to the data center market. Follow-on Stage 3 Concept Development efforts include predictive modeling and simulation of algorithm performance, prototype demonstrations with representative data center equipment to verify requisite performance and continued commercial partnering agreement formation to ensure uninterrupted development, and deployment of the real-time optimal control algorithm. As a software implementable technique for reducing power consumption, the RTOC has two very desirable traits supporting rapid prototyping and ultimately widespread dissemination. First, very little capital is required for implementation. No major infrastructure modifications are required and there is no need to purchase expensive capital equipment. Second, the RTOC can be rolled out incrementally. Therefore, the effectiveness can be proven without a large scale initial roll out. Through the use of the Impact Projections Model provided by the DOE, monetary savings in excess of $100M in 2020 and billions by 2040 are predicted. In terms of energy savings, the model predicts a primary energy displacement of 260 trillion BTUs (33 trillion kWh), or a 50% reduction in server power consumption. The model also predicts a corresponding reduction of pollutants such as SO2 and NOx in excess of 100,000 metric tonnes assuming the RTOC is fully deployed. While additional development and prototyping is required to validate these predictions, the relative low cost and ease of implementation compared to large capital projects makes it an ideal candidate for further investigation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Multi-layered Energy Management Framework for Extreme Fast Charging Stations Considering Demand Charges, Battery Degradation, and Forecast Uncertainties

To achieve a cost-effective and expeditious charging experience for extreme fast charging station (XFCS) owners and electric vehicle (EV) users, the optimal operation of XFCS is crucial. It is however challenging to simultaneously manage the profit from energy arbitrage, the cost of demand charges, and the degradation of a battery energy storage system (BESS) under uncertainties. This paper, therefore, proposes a multi-layered multi-time scale energy flow management framework for an XFCS by considering long- and short-term forecast uncertainties, monthly demand charges reduction, and BESS life degradation. In the proposed approach, an upper scheduling layer (USL) ensures the overall operation economy and yields optimal scheduling of the energy resources on a rolling horizon basis, thereby considering the long-term forecast errors. A lower dispatch layer (LDL) takes the short-term forecast errors into account during the real-time operation of the XFCS. Per the latest research, monthly demand charges can be as high as 90% of the total monthly bills for EV fast charging stations; to this end, this paper takes the first attempt at the reduction of demand charges cost by considering the trade-off between the energy cost and monthly demand charges. Contrasting literature, this work allocates an energy reserve in the BESS stored energy to deal with the impact of short-term forecast errors on the optimized real-time operation of the XFCS. Moreover, degradation modeling considers the trade-off between short-term benefits and long-term BESS life degradation. As a result, case studies and a comparative analysis prove the efficacy of the proposed framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerant supermarket refrigeration system modeling and its application

As an environmentally friendly low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerant, Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) has continuously gained popularity and research attention as alternative refrigerant for supermarket refrigeration system. In this paper, to fulfill the increasing need of accurate Low-GWP supermarket refrigeration models for development of supervisory level control and optimization strategies, a high fidelity model is developed for CO 2 transcritical supermarket refrigeration system which includes compressor rack of low temperature (LT) compressors and medium temperature (MT) compressors, air-cooled gas cooler, evaporator, expansion valves and other auxiliary equipment. A resistance-capacity model structure is proposed to simulate the display cases. Semi-thermodynamic models are proposed to estimate reciprocating compressors volumetric efficiency and power consumption. Furthermore the zone modeling approach is used for evaporator simulation, and air-cooled gas cooler is modeled with distributed modeling method. The expansion valve simulation is based on orifice flow model. To calibrate these models, both manufacture performance data and experimental data are used. The experiments are conducted with a full instrumental CO 2 supermarket refrigeration system installed in Oak Ridge National Lab Flexible Research Platform (FRP). The simulation model can predict the system performance, including power consumption, cooling capacity, mass flow rate, temperature, and pressure, with high accuracy (within ±4%) compared to experimental data. In addition, this developed model has been used to create the system optimum high side pressure for high side expansion valve control, and to generate wide operating range simulation data for developing the batter-equivalent commercial refrigeration system model which can be used in grid interactive control development.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Explaining persistent incomplete mixing in multicomponent reactive transport with Eulerian stochastic model

We present an Eulerian stochastic advection–diffusion–reaction (SADR) model and use it to explain incomplete mixing typically observed in transport experiments with bimolecular reactions. Unlike traditional advection– dispersion–reaction (ADR) models, the SADR model describes mechanical and diffusive mixing as two separate processes. In the SADR model, mechanical mixing is driven by random advective velocity whose variance is given by the coefficient of mechanical dispersion. The diffusive mixing is modeled as a Fickian diffusion process with the effective diffusion coefficient. We demonstrate that the sum of the two coefficients is equal to the dispersion coefficient, but only the effective diffusion coefficient contributes to the mixing-controlled reactions. We use experimental results of Gramling et al. * * to show that for transport and bimolecular reactions in porous media, the SADR model is significantly more accurate than the ADR model, which overestimates the concentration of the reaction product by as much as 60%. We also show that the SADR model predicts an experimentally observed bell- shaped spatial distribution of the reactive product concentration, while the ADR model results in a concentration distribution with an unphysical kink.

Bimolecular reactions, incomplete mixing, Stochast↗

High-Throughput Uniformity and Defect Monitoring in Low-Temperature Electrolysis Porous Transport Layers Using X-Ray Radiography

Effective quality control (QC) for manufacturing proton exchange membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE) components is critical to enabling widespread adoption of the technology for hydrogen generation. This study investigates X-ray radiography as a novel, high-throughput, potentially in-line QC technique for detecting defects and assessing material property distributions in titanium-based porous transport layers (PTLs) which constitute a crucial component of low temperature PEMWE stacks. We obtain radiographs of a set of fifteen PTLs and model their absorbance of the broadband radiation as a second-order polynomial to account for the non-monoenergetic radiation source used in this study. The resulting model serves as a basis for predicting the areal density and porosity distributions of the PTLs. We find radiography successful in detecting multiple instances of defects, including holes/depressions, cracks, and excess material on the surface or in the pores of the material, demonstrating its potential as a robust in-line QC tool for PTL manufacturing.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Estimating reaction parameters in mechanism-enabled population balance models of nanoparticle size distributions: A Bayesian inverse problem approach

In order to quantitatively predict nano- as well as other particle-size distributions, one needs to have both a mathematical model and estimates of the parameters that appear in these models. Here, we show how one can use Bayesian inversion to obtain statistical estimates for the parameters that appear in recently derived mechanism-enabled population balance models (ME-PBM) of nanoparticle growth. The Bayesian approach addresses the question of “how well do we know our parameters, along with their uncertainties?.” The results reveal that Bayesian inversion statistical analysis on an example, prototype $\mathrm{lr(0)_n}$ nanoparticle formation system allows one to estimate not just the most likely rate constants and other parameter values, but also their SDs, confidence intervals, and other statistical information. Moreover, knowing the reliability of the mechanistic model's parameters in turn helps inform one about the reliability of the proposed mechanism, as well as the reliability of its predictions. Importantly, the paper can also be seen as a tutorial with the additional goal of achieving a “Gold Standard” Bayesian inversion ME-PBM benchmark that others can use as a control to check their own use of this methodology for other systems of interest throughout nature. Overall, the results provide strong support for the hypothesis that there is substantial value in using a Bayesian inversion methodology for parameter estimation in particle formation systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Interpreting machine learning prediction of fire emissions and comparison with FireMIP process-based models

Annual burned areas in the United States have increased 2-fold during the past decades. With more large fires resulting in more emissions of fine particulate matter, an accurate prediction of fire emissions is critical for quantifying the impacts of fires on air quality, human health, and climate. This study aims to construct a machine learning (ML) model with game-theory interpretation to predict monthly fire emissions over the contiguous US (CONUS) and to understand the controlling factors of fire emissions. The optimized ML model is used to diagnose the process-based models in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) to inform future development. Results show promising performance for the ML model, Community Land Model (CLM), and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator-Interactive Fire And Emission Algorithm For Natural Environments (JULES-INFERNO) in reproducing the spatial distributions, seasonality, and interannual variability of fire emissions over the CONUS. Regional analysis shows that only the ML model and CLM simulate the realistic interannual variability of fire emissions for most of the subregions (r >0.95 for ML and r =0.14~0.70 for CLM), except for Mediterranean California, where all the models perform poorly (r =0.74 for ML and r <0.30 for the FireMIP models). Regarding seasonality, most models capture the peak emission in July over the western US. However, all models except for the ML model fail to reproduce the bimodal peaks in July and October over Mediterranean California, which may be explained by the smaller wind speeds of the atmospheric forcing data during Santa Ana wind events and limitations in model parameterizations for capturing the effects of Santa Ana winds on fire activity. Furthermore, most models struggle to capture the spring peak in emissions in the southeastern US, probably due to underrepresentation of human effects and the influences of winter dryness on fires in the models. As for extreme events, both the ML model and CLM successfully reproduce the frequency map of extreme emission occurrence but overestimate the number of months with extremely large fire emissions. Comparing the fire PM 2.5 emissions from the ML model with process-based fire models highlights their strengths and uncertainties for regional analysis and prediction and provides useful insights into future directions for model improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Data-Driven Algorithm for Enabling Delay Tolerance in Resilient Microgrid Controls Using Dynamic Mode Decomposition

The increased implementation of smart grid technologies in the power distribution grid presents unique opportunities that enable resiliency, but also brings challenges motivating needs for novel solutions and mitigation techniques. The bi-directional power and data flow allow for the grid to operate with increased resiliency, which is the ability to avoid discontinuity of service to end-use loads during extreme events. However, in applications where control of the distribution grid or microgrid relies on communication networks, the degradation of communication systems in the form of loss or high latency can cause maloperation and result in loss of end-use loads. Here this paper presents a novel framework to enable delay tolerance of centralized microgrid control schemes to mitigate communication system latency impacts and guarantee successful control action. We demonstrate the delay tolerance on a control scheme that operates a battery energy storage system (BESS) to offset the sudden loss of generation and maintain system frequency. During periods of severely degraded communication system performance, the proposed delay-tolerant algorithm compensates for the latency by utilizing a data-driven model generated at the device level using dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) to determine the performance of the communications. The DMD technique predicts the system’s frequency using device-level terminal measurements and provides updated control signals. The HELICS cosimulation platform evaluates the cyber-physical interaction of the power system model in GridLAB-D, the centralized control agent in Python, and the discrete network model in NS-3. The framework is tested and validated on the IEEE-123 node system modified to represent a networked remote microgrid model, and the results show an improvement in the dynamic performance

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Privacy Preserving Model-Free Optimization and Control Framework for Demand Response from Residential Thermal Loads

We consider the problem of optimizing the cost of procuring electricity for a large collection of homes managed by a load serving entity, by pre-cooling or pre-heating the thermal inertial loads in the homes to avoid procuring power during periods of peak electricity pricing. We would like to accomplish this objective in a completely privacy-preserving and model-free manner, that is, without direct access to the state variables (temperatures or power consumption) or the dynamical models (thermal characteristics) of individual homes, while guaranteeing personal comfort constraints of the consumers. We propose a two-stage optimization and control framework to address this problem. In the first stage, we use a long short-term memory (LSTM) network to predict hourly electricity prices, based on historical pricing data and weather forecasts. Given the hourly price forecast and thermal models of the homes, the problem of designing an optimal power consumption trajectory that minimizes the total electricity procurement cost for the collection of thermal loads can be formulated as a large-scale integer program (with millions of variables) due to the on-off cyclical dynamics of such loads. We provide a simple heuristic relaxation to make this large-scale optimization problem model-free and computationally tractable. In the second stage, we translate the results of this optimization problem into distributed open-loop control laws that can be implemented at individual homes without measuring or estimating their state variables, while simultaneously ensuring consumer comfort constraints. We demonstrate the performance of this approach on a large-scale test case comprising of 500 homes in the Houston area and benchmark its performance against a direct model-based optimization and control solution.

Sivaranjani, S.↗

C–S–H gel densification: The impact of the nanoscale on self-desiccation and sorption isotherms

The relationship between humidity and water content in a hydrating cement paste is largely controlled by the nanostructure of the C–S–H gel. Current hydration models do not describe this nanostructure, thus sorption isotherms and self-desiccation are given as constitutive inputs instead of being predicted from microstructural evolution. To address this limitation, this work combines a C–S–H gel description from nanoscale simulations with evolving capillary pore size distributions from a simple hydration model. Results show that a progressive densification of the C–S–H gel must be considered in order to explain the self-desiccation of low-alkali pastes. The impact of C–S–H densification on the evolution of microstructure and sorption isotherms is then discussed, including the effect of water-to-cement ratio, cement powder fineness, and curing temperature. Overall, this work identifies an area where nanoscale simulations can integrate larger-scale models of cement hydration and poromechanics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗