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DOE OSTI2021

Summary of DASSH-CFD Inter-Assembly Heat Transfer Comparison

Fast reactor core design requires integration of detailed power distributions obtained from neutronics models and thermal fluids calculations to determine temperature distributions and flow conditions. During the design phase, calculations may be repeated as specifications change and computational expense must be balanced with solution accuracy, creating an opportunity for the use of intermediate-fidelity codes. To that end, the Ducted Assembly Steady-State Heat Transfer Software (DASSH) has been developed at Argonne National Laboratory to perform full-core, steady state coolant and fuel pin temperature calculations in reactors consisting of hexagonal, ducted assemblies. DASSH is a first-order, finite volume subchannel code based on methodologies initially introduced in the legacy thermal hydraulics codes SUPERENERGY-2 and SE2-ANL. It can work coupled with the Argonne Reactor Computational (ARC) code suite to obtain neutron and gamma power distributions based on neutron transport solutions and features many improvements and new capabilities compared to its predecessors. DASSH calculates temperatures by balancing energy between subchannels and relies on correlations to account for flow distribution and coolant mixing.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Merefa Community Microgrid: Supporting Distributed Energy Resource Deployment in Ukraine

A conceptual design is described for a community microgrid in Ukraine. Microgrid resources include solar photovoltaics, battery energy storage, and conventional natural gas fueled reciprocating engine generators. The conceptual architecture was informed by the microgrid developer, NREL subject matter experts, and the application of REopt, an NREL-developed software tool created for identification of least-cost combination of resources for achieving cost savings, resilience, and renewable energy goals. This fact sheet is a summary of a previously published technical report; see NREL/TP-7A40-89527, which includes conceptual architecture, estimates of key summary financial metrics, and sequence of operations.

battery storage↗

DOE OSTI2018

Infrastructure development for radioactive materials at the NSLS-II

The X-ray Powder Diffraction (XPD) Beamline at the National Synchrotron Light Source-II is a multipurpose instrument designed for high-resolution, high-energy X-ray scattering techniques. In this article, the capabilities, opportunities and recent developments in the characterization of radioactive materials at XPD are described. The overarching goal of this work is to provide researchers access to advanced synchrotron techniques suited to the structural characterization of materials for advanced nuclear energy systems. XPD is a new beamline providing high photon flux for X-ray Diffraction, Pair Distribution Function analysis and Small Angle X-ray Scattering. The infrastructure and software described here extend the existing capabilities at XPD to accommodate radioactive materials. Such techniques will contribute crucial information to the characterization and quantification of advanced materials for nuclear energy applications. We describe the automated radioactive sample collection capabilities and recent X-ray Diffraction and Small Angle X-ray Scattering results from neutron irradiated reactor pressure vessel steels and oxide dispersion strengthened steels.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2019

GridAPPS-D™ a distribution management platform to develop applications for rural electric utilities

Rural electric utilities, many of which operate with a co-op management approach, have unique operational challenges not shared with their municipal or IOU counterparts. Rural electric utilities typically have fewer customers per feeder mile, and are generally less able to afford the costs, or provide robust support for today’s Advanced Distribution Management System (ADMS) offerings. Additionally, co-ops typically do not need the full suite of ADMS offerings but would benefit from a subset of applications such as OMS, Unbalanced Power-Flow, Volt-VAR optimization and FLISR (Fault Location Isolation and Service Restoration). Their needs, even within these applications, are simpler and more standardized. Lastly, due to their size, their IT capabilities and resources are commonly limited; hence hardware and software needs to be standards-based and easy to maintain with only most expansions of current capabilities. GridAPPS-D™ is an open-source, application development environment that’s part of the Department of Energy’s Grid Modernization Efforts, being led by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The GridAPPS-D project is developing a reference architecture and implementation with the goal of reducing the time and cost to integrate distribution applications for both planning and operations through the use of standardized interfaces and data models. In this paper, we present a view of the reference architecture for GridAPPS-D and highlight its applicability to the rural electric utilities’ needs, including descriptions of applications being developed using this platform, and how they can be applied to other rural electric utilities.

distribution management, GridAPPS-D, rural electri↗

DOE OSTI2025

NFPA Distributed Energy Resources Safety Training (DERST) For Emergency Responders

The National Fire Protection Association, with support from the Department of Energy, executed a multi-year initiative to develop, enhance, and disseminate Distributed Energy Resources Safety Training (DERST) tools for U.S. emergency responders. As Distributed Energy Resources (DER)—such as solar photovoltaics, battery energy storage systems (ESS), electric vehicles (EVs), and associated infrastructure—become increasingly prevalent, the NFPA identified a critical need for up-to-date standardized, accessible, and effective safety training tailored for the fire service and related public safety professionals. The project delivered a comprehensive suite of educational resources to improve responders’ abilities to safely manage DER-related incidents. This included: • Revised Modular Training Courses: Updated classroom-based DER safety courses, now modular and accessible nationwide through fire academies and the North American Fire Training Directors (NAFTD) network. • Live Burn Testing & Research: A full-scale controlled burn of a DER-equipped residential structure provided real-world data and insights, forming the basis for updated best practices. • A Gamified Simulation Tool – Firefighters Incident Response Simulation Tool (FIRST): A first-of-its-kind, multiplayer, scenario-based simulation using the Unreal Engine 5.0 to train responders in a realistic virtual, multi-DER incident environment. • Field Familiarization Software Tools & Prop Guide: Digital DER field familiarization evolutions software guide and a prop development manual to support field-based DER training exercises, enhancing responders' hands-on familiarity with DER infrastructure and collaboration on virtual incident responses. • National Dissemination Strategy: Strategic partnerships with NAFTD, Vector Solutions, and others enabled wide-scale distribution, with over 5,000 departments accessing resources and 1,100+ departments adopting the simulator in the first seven months. Also provided a web portal for easy access to all training and simulation programs developed under this grant for the U.S. responder community. Key findings from the project—particularly from the burn test—led to paradigm shifts in fire response tactics. For example, traditional approaches to garage fires may be hazardous if DERs are present, due to explosive off gassing and thermal runaway risks. The new training emphasizes scene assessment, stand-off approaches, thermal imaging verification, and careful post-incident cooling of DER components to prevent reignition. This initiative has had a significant national impact, raising awareness, enhancing preparedness, and supporting safer DER incident response practices. Significant engagement from the media, public safety organizations, and PBS coverage has further amplified the reach and adoption of NFPA’s DER safety training, tools, and simulations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Review of Current Software for Analyzing Total X-ray Scattering Data from Liquids

The popularity of the pair distribution function (PDF) analysis of X-ray total scattering data has steadily grown as access to ex situ synchrotron data has expanded. Due to the broadening of the PDF user community, there is a growing demand for software that can be used to extract PDFs and is accessible to non-expert users. While user-friendly options have been developed over the past decade for fast, streamlined data analysis, care must be taken in both processing the data and understanding any limitations, especially in the case of liquids. In this review, the same scattering data are analyzed using different total X-ray scattering software, in order to compare the accuracy of the extracted structure factors and associated pair distribution functions. The goal is to assess the best practices for extracting the most accurate liquid data for each software package. The importance of absolute normalization and the application of the most appropriate corrections are emphasized via quantitative comparisons between liquid sulfur and water. Additionally, an awareness of the competing conventions used to define the PDF in crystallography and liquids/glasses is crucial for both the downstream analyses of the data and a comparison with the previous results in the literature.

Gallington, Leighanne C. (ORCID:0000000203837522)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Building Load Control to Facilitate High Penetration of Solar Photovoltaic Generation (Final Technical Report)

Solar photovoltaic (PV) resources are the most common form of distributed generation in residential and commercial customer premises within electric distribution networks. A higher penetration of PV generation in distribution circuits will impose challenges on maintaining service voltages within the range of industry standards, power quality, and power flow. Buildings consume 74% of the electricity produced in the United States, and a significant portion of the building load is dispatchable, making them responsive to electrical grid needs. Oak Ridge National Laboratory—in collaboration with Southern Company; the University of Tennessee, Knoxville; and the Georgia Institute of Technology—is examining the PV integration issues in distribution-level electrical grids and developing integrated demand-side control and communication systems to enable responsive loads. The proposed responsive loads mechanism performs renewable generation following to increase the penetration of solar PV within each feeder. The specific objectives of this project are to (1) examine distribution-level PV integration scenarios to understand requirements, (2) undertake an end-to-end simulation-based design of a distributed control strategy of loads geographically near the PV generation asset to minimize the effect on the distribution feeder, (3) deploy and demonstrate the control technology developed in partnership with utilities, and (4) perform a scalability analysis at the utility scale. This 3-year integrated project aims to develop, demonstrate, and validate demand-side control technology to enable increased the penetration of renewables while mitigating challenges that arise due to their intermittency. Activities in Budget Period (BP) 1 focused on a literature review and the formal design of a control system for integrating local distribution with generation and loads. The team used modeling and simulation to evaluate the impact of varying buildings loads, variable PV generation, and power flow dynamics on the distribution circuit. The dynamic models developed in BP 1 were used in BP 2 to develop a model-based control design and a test bed. The test bed has enabled the simulation-based testing and comparison of different control designs and formulations applied to different configurations of the distribution grid, PVs, and building loads. The control approaches developed in BP 2 were implemented in BP 3 in the form of hardware deployed at the Central Baptist Church (CBC) in Knoxville, Tennessee, for testing and evaluation. The outcome of this project was the development and demonstration of open-source, low-cost, low-touch sensing and control retrofits to distributed PV generation and building loads that, in a coordinated fashion, provide the load-shaping response needed to integrate high levels of renewable penetration. This research addresses the target metrics by dynamically controlling a load with solar generation variability to minimize the extent of two-way power flow, enhance reliability, facilitate high PV penetration (>100% of peak load in a line segment), and generate scalable software and hardware solutions adaptable to any penetration levels. The research and development activities are focused and designed to be impactful within the relevant 2020 targets time frame.An accurate open-source integration simulation framework for end-to-end control design was developed and deployed at the CBC facility for testing and evaluation. This final report provides a detailed review of the technical results achieved during this 3-year integrated project. A novel spectral analysis of PV data is demonstrated to derive the requirements of the control design. A detailed simulation-based analysis of PV integration at increasing penetration levels is presented using 1 year of PV data to demonstrate the impact on the distribution circuits. Two different control strategies were developed and demonstrated via simulation to track variable PV generation with adaptive load dispatch. The report concludes with a summary of accomplishments and recommendations for a path forward.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Numerical Modeling & Optimization of the iProTech Pitching Inertial Pump (PIP) Wave Energy Converter (WEC) (CRADA Final Report)

This project represents a continuation of the collaboration between iProTech and NLR to simulate, optimize and design the iProTech Pitching Inertial Pump (PIP) device. The objectives of this TEAMER project are twofold: 1. Refining the physical characteristics of the existing iProTech PIP WEC-Sim model to enhance the model’s fidelity and include controllable components. Key model enhancements target the inclusion of Coulomb friction, the introduction of a controllable bypass valve, and the replacement of traditional check valves with advanced motorized ones. 2. Exploring traditional and advanced control algorithms. From traditional methods like latching control to cutting-edge reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms, the goal is to ensure the PIP device's adaptability and optimal performance across a range of ocean conditions. NLR is tasked with augmenting the WEC-Sim model and implementing the control algorithms, culminating in performance comparison analyses. iProTech will update their existing 3D models, advise on model improvements, and determine crucial system metrics. WEC-Sim, developed in MATLAB/SIMULINK with Simscape Multibody, is the main piece of software that will be used in this project. Coupled with the MATLAB RL Toolbox, it offers a robust platform for in-depth simulation and optimization of the iProTech PIP device. Building on previous work to explore the PIP design space and optimize its geometry, mass distribution, center of gravity and other key parameters, this project aims to refine iProTech’s existing numerical models and develop effective control algorithms that can seamlessly integrate into their future hardware testing campaigns.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cooperative fault management for resilient integration of renewable energy

Cooperative fault management (CFM) is designed herein to control different types of renewable energy resources cooperatively during electrical faults. This paper studies systems with a high penetration of photovoltaic (PV) energy and wind energy. First, CFM leverages power converters of PV farms to boost the ride-through capability of nearby doubly-fed induction generators (DFIGs). By controlling PV farms’ output voltages to change smoothly during both fault initiation and fault clearance, the widely used crowbar in DFIGs is less likely to be activated. Crowbar activation adversely makes DFIGs lose controllability and absorb reactive power. The second contribution is the development of a software-defined CFM controller and a controller in-the-loop demonstration of the real-time performance of this optimization-based CFM. CFM capitalizes on distributed optimization formulation to enable flexibility, plug-and-play, and privacy-preserving. Computation time, however, is a major concern for optimization-based dynamics control. Here, real-time controller-in-the-loop simulation results show optimization-based CFM can output reference values around 60 ms and is quick enough for dynamic control.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

UQpy v4.1: Uncertainty quantification with Python

This paper presents the latest improvements introduced in Version 4 of the UQpy, Uncertainty Quantification with Python, library. In the latest version, the code was restructured to conform with the latest Python coding conventions, refactored to simplify previous tightly coupled features, and improve its extensibility and modularity. To improve the robustness of UQpy, software engineering best practices were adopted. A new software development workflow significantly improved collaboration between team members, and continuous integration and automated testing ensured the robustness and reliability of software performance. Continuous deployment of UQpy allowed its automated packaging and distribution in system agnostic format via multiple channels, while a Docker image enables the use of the toolbox regardless of operating system limitations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Combining diagnostics, modeling, and control systems for automated alignment of the TES beamline

X-ray beamlines are essential components of all synchrotron light sources. Practical operations involve frequent variation in beamline component positions and orientation, particularly when photon beam parameters shift due to experimental needs, or due to variations in the incoming photon beam. The alignment process can be time consuming and takes away from valuable beam time for experimental data collection. We describe progress in the automation of certain alignment tasks on the tender-energy X-ray spectroscopy (TES) beamline at the National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II). The beamline is controlled using the BlueSky software in which high level experimental plans guide the beamline components during an experiment. Numerous software packages exist for beamline modeling, and they may be tied to the beamline control system using a package we are continuing to develop called Sirepo-Bluesky. The photon beam distribution may be measured with fluorescent screens, and a relation between beam and machine state can be found by varying the mirror and aperture settings over a multi-dimensional range. We describe the results of such parameter varying measurements and how we are combining Sirepo-Bluesky with machine learning methods and reduced models to automate mirror alignment on the TES beamline.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-J-96: Multi-Axis Dose Accumulation of Noninvasive Image-Guided Breast Brachytherapy Through Biomechanical Modeling of Tissue Deformation Using the Finite Element Method

Purpose: Noninvasive image-guided breast brachytherapy delivers conformal HDR Ir-192 brachytherapy treatments with the breast compressed, and treated in the cranial-caudal and medial-lateral directions. This technique subjects breast tissue to extreme deformations not observed for other disease sites. Given that, commercially-available software for deformable image registration cannot accurately co-register image sets obtained in these two states, a finite element analysis based on a biomechanical model was developed to deform dose distributions for each compression circumstance for dose summation. Methods: The model assumed the breast was under planar stress with values of 30 kPa for Young’s modulus and 0.3 for Poisson’s ratio. Dose distributions from round and skin-dose optimized applicators in cranial-caudal and medial-lateral compressions were deformed using 0.1 cm planar resolution. Dose distributions, skin doses, and dose-volume histograms were generated. Results were examined as a function of breast thickness, applicator size, target size, and offset distance from the center. Results: Over the range of examined thicknesses, target size increased several millimeters as compression thickness decreased. This trend increased with increasing offset distances. Applicator size minimally affected target coverage, until applicator size was less than the compressed target size. In all cases, with an applicator larger or equal to the compressed target size, > 90% of the target covered by > 90% of the prescription dose. In all cases, dose coverage became less uniform as offset distance increased and average dose increased. This effect was more pronounced for smaller target-applicator combinations. Conclusions: The model exhibited skin dose trends that matched MC-generated benchmarking results and clinical measurements within 2% over a similar range of breast thicknesses and target sizes. The model provided quantitative insight on dosimetric treatment variables over a range of clinical circumstances. These findings highlight the need for careful target localization and accurate identification of compression thickness and target offset. Prof. Rivard is a shareholder of Advanced Radiation Therapy, LLC, the manufacturer of the AccuBoost noninvasive image-guided breast brachytherapy system examined herein. None of the other authors have any conflicts-of-interest for this work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

GridPACK™ : A Framework for Developing Power Grid Simulations on High-Performance Computing Platforms

This paper describes the GridPACK™ framework, which is designed to help power grid engineers develop modeling software capable of running on high performance computers. The framework makes extensive use of software templates to provide high level functionality while at the same time allowing developers the freedom to express whatever models and algorithms they are using. GridPACK™ contains modules for setting up distributed power grid networks, assigning buses and branches with arbitrary behaviors to the network, creating distributed matrices and vectors and using parallel linear and non-linear solvers to solve algebraic equations. It also provides mappers to create matrices and vectors based on properties of the network and functionality to support IO and to mana

Palmer, Bruce J.↗

DOE OSTI2019

FY 18 Status Report on the Computing Systems for the Yucca Mountain Project TSPA-LA Models and Inventory of Software used for Process Models

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) continued evaluation of total system performance assessment (TSPA) computing systems for the previously considered Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). This was done to maintain the operational readiness of the computing infrastructure (computer hardware and software) and knowledge capability for total system performance assessment (TSPA) type analysis, as directed by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), DOE 2010. This work is a continuation of the ongoing readiness evaluation reported in Lee and Hadgu (2014), Hadgu et al. (2015) and Hadgu and Appel (2016), and Hadgu et al. (2017). The TSPA computing hardware (2014 server cluster -CL2014) and storage system described in Hadgu et al. (2015) were used for the current analysis. One floating license of Gold Sim with Versions 9.60.300, 10.5, 11.1 and 12.0 was installed on the cluster head node, and its distributed processing capability was mapped on the cluster processors. Other supporting software were tested and installed to support the TSPA-type analysis on the server cluster. The FY18 task included developing an inventory of software used for the Yucca Mountain Project process models and preliminary assessment of status of the software; enhancing security of the cluster and setting a backup system. The 2014 server cluster and supporting software systems are fully operational to support TSPA-LA type analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2015

Combined Impact of Heterogeneous Lifetime and Gettering on Solar Cell Performance

We couple numerical process and device simulations to provide a framework for understanding the combined effects of as-grown wafer impurity distribution, processing parameters, and solar cell architecture. For this study, we added the Impurity-to-Efficiency simulator to Synopsys’ Sentaurus Process software using the Alagator Scripting Language. Our results quantify how advanced processing can eliminate differences in efficiency due to different as-grown impurity concentrations and due to different area fractions of defective wafer regions. We identify combinations of as-grown impurity distributions and process parameters that produce solar cells limited by point defects and those that are limited by precipitated impurities. Gettering targeted at either point defect or precipitate reduction can then be designed and applied to increase cell efficiency. We also visualize the post-processing iron and total recombination distributions in 2D maps of the wafer cross-section. PV researchers and companies can input their initial iron distributions and processing parameters into our software and couple the resulting process simulation results with a solar cell device design of interest to conduct their own analyses. The Alagator scripts we developed are freely available online at http://pv.mit.edu/impurity-to-efficiency-i2e-simulator-for-sentaurus-tcad/.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

Basic parameter estimation of binary neutron star systems by the advanced LIGO/Vigro network

Within the next five years, it is expected that the Advanced LIGO/Virgo network will have reached a sensitivity sufficient to enable the routine detection of gravitational waves. Beyond the initial detection, the scientific promise of these instruments relies on the effectiveness of our physical parameter estimation capabilities. A major part of this effort has been toward the detection and characterization of gravitational waves from compact binary coalescence, e.g., the coalescence of binary neutron stars. While several previous studies have investigated the accuracy of parameter estimation with advanced detectors, the majority have relied on approximation techniques such as the Fisher Matrix which are insensitive to the non-Gaussian nature of the gravitational wave posterior distribution function. Here we report average statistical uncertainties that will be achievable for strong detection candidates (S/N = 20) over a comprehensive sample of source parameters. We use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo based parameter estimation software developed by the LIGO/Virgo Collaboration with the goal of updating the previously quoted Fisher Matrix bounds. We find the recovery of the individual masses to be fractionally within 9% (15%) at the 68% (95%) credible intervals for equal-mass systems, and within 1.9% (3.7%) for unequal-mass systems. We also find that the Advanced LIGO/Virgo network will constrain the locations of binary neutron star mergers to a median uncertainty of 5.1 deg{sup 2} (13.5 deg{sup 2}) on the sky. This region is improved to 2.3 deg{sup 2} (6 deg{sup 2}) with the addition of the proposed LIGO India detector to the network. We also report the average uncertainties on the luminosity distances and orbital inclinations of strong detections that can be achieved by different network configurations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

The Current State of Radiation Dosimetry in Radionuclide Therapy

Radionuclide therapy combines the specificity of cancer cell targeting with the well-known cytotoxic effects of ionizing radiation. It has the potential to simultaneously eradicate both the primary tumor site as well as the metastatic extent of the disease throughout the body. Despite these advantages, a major limitation of radionuclide therapy is that conventional internal dosimetry methods have failed to accurately predict treatment outcomes in patients. It has been proposed that this shortcoming is due to the fact that therapeutic dosimetry is typically performed using methods developed for diagnostic imaging that do not consider patient specific anatomy, pharmacokinetics and dose heterogeneity. Even worse, dosimetry methods are often completely neglected during treatment planning and dose prescription is based on Body Surface Area/Weight (BSA/BW) and platelet counts. The most widely used internal dosimetry software is OLINDA/EXM (Organ Level Internal Dose Assessment for Exponential Modeling). OLINDA/EXM calculates absorbed doses using the formulism developed by the Medical Internal Radiation Dose (MIRD) committee of the Society of Nuclear Medicine. In its current implementation, OLINDA/EXM requires the use of S factors, which are derived in phantoms that do not accurately represent the actual patient. In addition, OLINDA/EXM assumes that the activity distribution in each organ and tumor is uniform, when it has been well established that activity distributions are often highly heterogeneous. Furthermore, the tumor is not modeled in the phantom, which introduces additional uncertainties in the calculation. Due to these limitations, there is a clear need for improved dosimetry methods for therapeutic nuclear medicine that utilize patient-specific imaging information. A variety of efforts are currently underway to develop such methods. There are two commercial software packages on the market for voxel level internal dosimetry: STRATOS (Philips Technologies, Aachen, Germany) and VoxelDose (DosiSoft, Cachan, France), but both packages are not widely used in clinical practice. In addition, several academic platforms have been developed. Similar to these offerings, RAPID is a robust, fast and multimodal platform. However, RAPID has been designed with tremendous flexibility to perform accurate dosimetry for any radiopharmaceutical in the pre-clinical and clinical setting in order to aid in drug development and to assist in radionuclide therapy treatment planning. This presentation will overview existing dosimetry platforms while focusing on the Monte Carlo-based platform developed at the University of Wisconsin known as RAPID (Radiopharmaceutical Assessment Platform for Internal Dosimetry). RAPID is a robust and universal platform that can provide accurate 3D internal dosimetry for any radiopharmaceutical during both the pre-clinical and clinical stages of drug development as well as clinical treatment planning in TRT. (authors)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Advanced Solar and Load Forecasting Incorporating HD Sky Imaging: BNL Phase II Activities (Final Report)

Over the last ten years, lower costs and government incentives for rooftop and utility scale solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have led to a rapid growth in the amount of power generated from this renewable energy source. For example, the cumulative PV generating capacity of 1,160 MW in New York State at the end of 2018 represents a growth of more than 4,000% over the past seven years and almost 400% over the past five years. But increased dependence on this inherently variable energy source introduces the need to anticipate, i.e., forecast, changes in energy production and manage them appropriately. Utilities and grid operators can then use this forecast information to balance changes and maintain stability of the electric grid by adding additional sources or diverting excess supplies for sale or storage, as needed. Current techniques based on persistence modeling are not accurate enough to provide reliable forecasts. With support from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technology Office (DOE SETO) and the New York Power Authority (NYPA), Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) formed a collaborative team to provide reliable forecasting over a range of time intervals. In addition, the forecasting area was scaled up to about 50 km2, a factor of 20 times larger than previously achieved, so that available solar irradiance could be forecast throughout an entire region including both large generating facilities and distributed rooftop solar arrays. In its role, BNL developed a technology for predicting changes in available solar energy from zero to 30 minutes ahead. This “nowcasting” approach uses inexpensive, off-the-shelf, high definition (HD) imagers with custom software to identify and track the movement of approaching clouds and predict their impact on available solar irradiance. The BNL Nowcasting model improves forecasting accuracy by 20 to 50% over current techniques. Forecasting reliability for low clouds (worst case scenario since they move over solar panels more rapidly than high clouds) was calculated to be 95% accurate for forecast periods of five minute ahead. Reliability decreases with longer forecast time intervals and was calculated to be about 80% for 10 minute forecasts, and about 70% for 20 minutes ahead. Clouds were still reliably tracked by the imager network at 60% accuracy for forecast lead times up to about 30 minutes ahead, and this was determined to be the practical nowcasting limit for low clouds in a network of this scale. This work represents the second phase of a multi-phase effort to develop and deploy solar forecasting at a regional scale so that contributions from distributed rooftop solar resources can be forecast along with solar generating facilities, giving utilities and stakeholders an accurate assessment of future energy production. Additional work is planned to operate the forecasting network in an area upstate New York to assess system reliability under diverse meteorological conditions and to monitor system performance over a full range of seasonal variability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗