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At least 307 records · Page 17

Automated Discovery and Modeling of Sequential Patterns Preceding Events of Interest

The integration of emerging data manipulation technologies has enabled a paradigm shift in practitioners' abilities to understand and anticipate events of interest in complex systems. Example events of interest include outbreaks of socio-political violence in nation-states. Rather than relying on human-centric modeling efforts that are limited by the availability of SMEs, automated data processing technologies has enabled the development of innovative automated complex system modeling and predictive analysis technologies. We introduce one such emerging modeling technology - the sequential pattern methodology. We have applied the sequential pattern methodology to automatically identify patterns of observed behavior that precede outbreaks of socio-political violence such as riots, rebellions and coups in nation-states. The sequential pattern methodology is a groundbreaking approach to automated complex system model discovery because it generates easily interpretable patterns based on direct observations of sampled factor data for a deeper understanding of societal behaviors that is tolerant of observation noise and missing data. The discovered patterns are simple to interpret and mimic human's identifications of observed trends in temporal data. Discovered patterns also provide an automated forecasting ability: we discuss an example of using discovered patterns coupled with a rich data environment to forecast various types of socio-political violence in nation-states.

Rohloff, Kurt↗

Discovery and Monitoring of a New Black Hole Candidate XTE J1752-223 with RXTE: RMS Spectrum Evolution, BH Mass and the Source Distance

We report on the discovery and monitoring observations of a new galactic black hole candidate XTE J1752-223 by Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). The new source appeared on the X-ray sky on October 21 2009 and was active for almost 8 months. Phenomenologically, the source exhibited the low-hard/highsoft spectral state bi-modality and the variability evolution during the state transition that matches standard behavior expected from a stellar mass black hole binary. We model the energy spectrum throughout the outburst using a generic Comptonization model assuming that part of the input soft radiation in the form of a black body spectrum gets reprocessed in the Comptonizing medium. We follow the evolution of fractional root-mean-square (RMS) variability in the RXTE/PCA energy band with the source spectral state and conclude that broad band variability is strongly correlated with the source hardness (or Comptonized fraction). We follow changes in the energy distribution of rms variability during the low-hard state and the state transition and find further evidence that variable emission is strongly concentrated in the power-law spectral component. We discuss the implication of our results to the Comptonization regimes during different spectral states. Correlations of spectral and variability properties provide measurements of the BH mass and distance to the source. The spectral-timing correlation scaling technique applied to the RXTE observations during the hardto- soft state transition indicates a mass of the BH in XTE J1752-223 between 8 and 11 solar masses and a distance to the source about 3.5 kiloparsec.

Shaposhinikov, Nikolai↗

Discovery of X-Ray-Emitting O-Ne-Mg-Rich Ejecta in the Galactic Supernova Remnant Puppis A

We report on the discovery of X-ray-emitting O-Ne-Mg-rich ejecta in the middle-aged Galactic O-rich supernova remnant Puppis A with Chandra and XMM-Newton. We use line ratios to identify a low-ionization filament running parallel to the northeastern edge of the remnant that requires super-solar abundances, particularly for O, Ne, and Mg, which we interpret to be from O-Ne-Mg-rich ejecta. Abundance ratios of Ne/O, Mg/O, and Fe/O are measured to be [approx]2, [approx]2, and <0.3 times the solar values. Our spatially resolved spectral analysis from the northeastern rim to the western rim otherwise reveals sub-solar abundances consistent with those in the interstellar medium. The filament is coincident with several optically emitting O-rich knots with high velocities. If these are physically related, the filament would be a peculiar fragment of ejecta. On the other hand, the morphology of the filament suggests that it may trace ejecta heated by a shock reflected strongly off the dense ambient clouds near the northeastern rim.

Katsuda, Satoru↗

Discovery and Evolution of the New Black Hole Candidate Swift J1539.2-6227 During Its 2008 Outburst

We report on the discovery by the Swift Gamma-Ray Burst Explorer of the black hole candidate Swift J1539.2-6227 and the subsequent course of an outburst beginning in November 2008 and lasting at least seven months. The source was discovered during normal observations with the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) on 2008 November 25. An extended observing campaign with the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) and Swift provided near-daily coverage over 176 days, giving us a rare opportunity to track the evolution of spectral and timing parameters with fine temporal resolution through a series of spectral states. The source was first detected in a hard state during which strong low-frequency quasiperiodic oscillations (QPOs) were detected. The QPOs persisted for about 35 days and a signature of the transition from the hard to soft intermediate states was seen in the timing data. The source entered a short-lived thermal state about 40 days after the start of the outburst. There were variations in spectral hardness as the source flux declined and returned to a hard state at the end of the outburst. The progression of spectral states and the nature of the timing features provide strong evidence that Swift J1539.2-6227 is a candidate black hole in a low-mass X-ray binary system.

Krimm, H. A.↗

Characterizing the Joint Effect of Diverse Test-Statistic Correlation Structures and Effect Size on False Discovery Rates in a Multiple-Comparison Study of Many Outcome Measures

In their 2009 Annals of Statistics paper, Gavrilov, Benjamini, and Sarkar report the results of a simulation assessing the robustness of their adaptive step-down procedure (GBS) for controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) when normally distributed test statistics are serially correlated. In this study we extend the investigation to the case of multiple comparisons involving correlated non-central t-statistics, in particular when several treatments or time periods are being compared to a control in a repeated-measures design with many dependent outcome measures. In addition, we consider several dependence structures other than serial correlation and illustrate how the FDR depends on the interaction between effect size and the type of correlation structure as indexed by Foerstner s distance metric from an identity. The relationship between the correlation matrix R of the original dependent variables and R~, the correlation matrix of associated t-statistics is also studied. In general R~ depends not only on R, but also on sample size and the signed effect sizes for the multiple comparisons.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗

Discovery and Mass Measurements of a Cold, Sub-Neptune Mass Planet and Its Host Star

The gravitational microlensing exoplanet detection method is uniquely sensitive to cold, low-mass planets which orbit beyond the snow-line, where the most massive planets are thought to form. The early statistical results from microlensing indicate that Neptune-Saturn mass planets located beyond the snow-line are substantially more common than their counterparts in closer orbits that have found by the Doppler radial velocity method. We present the discovery of the planet MOA-2009-BLG-266Lb, which demonstrates that the gravitational microlensing method also has the capability to measure the masses of cold, low-mass planets. The mass measurements of the host star and the planet are made possible by the detection of the microlensing parallax signal due to the orbital motion or the Earth as well as observations from the EPOXI spacecraft in a Heliocentric orbit. The microlensing light curve indicates a planetary host star mass of M(sun) = 0.54 + / - 0.05M(sun) located at a distance of DL= 2.94 _ 0.21 kpc, orbited by a planet of mass mp= 9.8 +/-1.1M(Earth) with a semi-major axis of a = 3.1(+1.9-0.4)MAU.

Barry, Richard K., Jr.↗

Design and Implementation of the Boundary Layer Transition Flight Experiment on Space Shuttle Discovery

In an effort to better the understanding of high speed aerodynamics, a series of flight experiments were installed on Space Shuttle Discovery during the STS-119 and STS-128 missions. This experiment, known as the Boundary Layer Transition Flight Experiment (BLTFE), provided the technical community with actual entry flight data from a known height protuberance at Mach numbers at and above Mach 15. Any such data above Mach 15 is irreproducible in a laboratory setting. Years of effort have been invested in obtaining this valuable data, and many obstacles had to be overcome in order to ensure the success of implementing an Orbiter modification. Many Space Shuttle systems were involved in the installation of appropriate components that revealed 'concurrent engineering' was a key integration tool. This allowed the coordination of all various parts and pieces which had to be sequenced appropriately and installed at the right time. Several issues encountered include Orbiter configuration and access, design requirements versus current layout, implementing the modification versus typical processing timelines, and optimizing the engineering design cycles and changes. Open lines of communication within the entire modification team were essential to project success as the team was spread out across the United States, from NASA Kennedy Space Center in Florida, to NASA Johnson Space Center in Texas, to Boeing Huntington Beach, California among others. The forum permits the discussion of processing concerns from the design phase to the implementation phase, which eventually saw the successful flights and data acquisition on STS-119 in March 2009 and on STS-128 in September 2009.

Spanos, Theodoros A.↗

Improve Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery Through the Use of MatLab

Data mining is widely used to mine business, engineering, and scientific data. Data mining uses pattern based queries, searches, or other analyses of one or more electronic databases/datasets in order to discover or locate a predictive pattern or anomaly indicative of system failure, criminal or terrorist activity, etc. There are various algorithms, techniques and methods used to mine data; including neural networks, genetic algorithms, decision trees, nearest neighbor method, rule induction association analysis, slice and dice, segmentation, and clustering. These algorithms, techniques and methods used to detect patterns in a dataset, have been used in the development of numerous open source and commercially available products and technology for data mining. Data mining is best realized when latent information in a large quantity of data stored is discovered. No one technique solves all data mining problems; challenges are to select algorithms or methods appropriate to strengthen data/text mining and trending within given datasets. In recent years, throughout industry, academia and government agencies, thousands of data systems have been designed and tailored to serve specific engineering and business needs. Many of these systems use databases with relational algebra and structured query language to categorize and retrieve data. In these systems, data analyses are limited and require prior explicit knowledge of metadata and database relations; lacking exploratory data mining and discoveries of latent information. This presentation introduces MatLab(R) (MATrix LABoratory), an engineering and scientific data analyses tool to perform data mining. MatLab was originally intended to perform purely numerical calculations (a glorified calculator). Now, in addition to having hundreds of mathematical functions, it is a programming language with hundreds built in standard functions and numerous available toolboxes. MatLab's ease of data processing, visualization and its enormous availability of built in functionalities and toolboxes make it suitable to perform numerical computations and simulations as well as a data mining tool. Engineers and scientists can take advantage of the readily available functions/toolboxes to gain wider insight in their perspective data mining experiments.

Shaykhian, Gholam Ali↗

Systems Engineering Using Heritage Spacecraft Technology: Lessons Learned from Discovery and New Frontiers Deep Space Missions

In the design and development of complex spacecraft missions, project teams frequently assume the use of advanced technology or heritage systems to enable a mission or reduce the overall mission risk and cost. As projects proceed through the development life cycle, increasingly detailed knowledge of the advanced or heritage systems and the system environment identifies unanticipated issues that result in cost overruns or schedule impacts. The Discovery & New Frontiers (D&NF) Program Office recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays resulting from advanced technology or heritage assumptions for 6 D&NF missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that the cost and schedule growth did not result from technical hurdles requiring significant technology development. Instead, systems engineering processes did not identify critical issues early enough in the design cycle to ensure project schedules and estimated costs address the inherent risks. In general, the overruns were traceable to: inadequate understanding of the heritage system s behavior within the proposed spacecraft design and mission environment; an insufficient level of experience with the heritage system; or an inadequate scoping of the system-wide impacts necessary to implement the heritage or advanced technology. This presentation summarizes the study s findings and offers suggestions for improving the project s ability to identify and manage the risks inherent in the technology and heritage design solution.

Barley, Bryan↗

Discovery and New Frontiers Project Budget Analysis Tool

The Discovery and New Frontiers (D&NF) programs are multi-project, uncoupled programs that currently comprise 13 missions in phases A through F. The ability to fly frequent science missions to explore the solar system is the primary measure of program success. The program office uses a Budget Analysis Tool to perform "what-if" analyses and compare mission scenarios to the current program budget, and rapidly forecast the programs ability to meet their launch rate requirements. The tool allows the user to specify the total mission cost (fixed year), mission development and operations profile by phase (percent total mission cost and duration), launch vehicle, and launch date for multiple missions. The tool automatically applies inflation and rolls up the total program costs (in real year dollars) for comparison against available program budget. Thus, the tool allows the user to rapidly and easily explore a variety of launch rates and analyze the effect of changes in future mission or launch vehicle costs, the differing development profiles or operational durations of a future mission, or a replan of a current mission on the overall program budget. Because the tool also reports average monthly costs for the specified mission profile, the development or operations cost profile can easily be validate against program experience for similar missions. While specifically designed for predicting overall program budgets for programs that develop and operate multiple missions concurrently, the basic concept of the tool (rolling up multiple, independently-budget lines) could easily be adapted to other applications.

Newhouse, Marilyn E.↗

Discovery and Identification of Dimethylsilanediol as a Contaminant in ISS Potable Water

In September 2010, analysis of ISS potable water samples was undertaken to determine the contaminant(s) responsible for a rise of total organic carbon (TOC) in the Water Processor Assembly (WPA) product water. As analysis of the routine target list of organic compounds did not reveal the contaminant, efforts to look for unknown compounds were initiated, resulting in discovery of an unknown peak in the gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) analysis for glycols. A mass spectrum of the contaminant was then generated by concentrating one of the samples and analyzing it by GC/MS in full-scan mode. Although a computer match of the compound identity could not be obtained with the instrument database, a search with a more up-to-date mass spectral library yielded a good match with dimethylsilanediol (DMSD). Inductively coupled plasma/mass spectrometry (ICP/MS) analyses showed abnormally high silicon levels in the samples, confirming that the unknown compound(s) contained silicon. DMSD was then synthesized to confirm the identification and provide a standard to develop a calibration curve. Further confirmation was provided by external direct analysis in real time time of flight (DART TOF) mass spectrometry. To routinely test for DMSD in the future, a quantitative method was needed. A preliminary GC/MS method was developed and archived samples from various locations on ISS were analyzed to determine the extent of the contamination and provide data for troubleshooting. This paper describes these events in more detail as well as problems encountered in routine GC/MS analyses and the subsequent development of high performance liquid chromatography and LC/MS/MS methods for measuring DMSD.

Rutz, Jeffrey A.↗

Improve Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery through the use of MatLab

Data mining is widely used to mine business, engineering, and scientific data. Data mining uses pattern based queries, searches, or other analyses of one or more electronic databases/datasets in order to discover or locate a predictive pattern or anomaly indicative of system failure, criminal or terrorist activity, etc. There are various algorithms, techniques and methods used to mine data; including neural networks, genetic algorithms, decision trees, nearest neighbor method, rule induction association analysis, slice and dice, segmentation, and clustering. These algorithms, techniques and methods used to detect patterns in a dataset, have been used in the development of numerous open source and commercially available products and technology for data mining. Data mining is best realized when latent information in a large quantity of data stored is discovered. No one technique solves all data mining problems; challenges are to select algorithms or methods appropriate to strengthen data/text mining and trending within given datasets. In recent years, throughout industry, academia and government agencies, thousands of data systems have been designed and tailored to serve specific engineering and business needs. Many of these systems use databases with relational algebra and structured query language to categorize and retrieve data. In these systems, data analyses are limited and require prior explicit knowledge of metadata and database relations; lacking exploratory data mining and discoveries of latent information. This presentation introduces MatLab(TradeMark)(MATrix LABoratory), an engineering and scientific data analyses tool to perform data mining. MatLab was originally intended to perform purely numerical calculations (a glorified calculator). Now, in addition to having hundreds of mathematical functions, it is a programming language with hundreds built in standard functions and numerous available toolboxes. MatLab's ease of data processing, visualization and its enormous availability of built in functionalities and toolboxes make it suitable to perform numerical computations and simulations as well as a data mining tool. Engineers and scientists can take advantage of the readily available functions/toolboxes to gain wider insight in their perspective data mining experiments.

Shaykahian, Gholan Ali↗

Discovery of Eclipses from the Accreting Millisecond X-Ray Pulsar Swift J1749.4-2807

We report the discovery of X-ray eclipses in the recently discovered accreting millisecond X-ray pulsar SWIFT J1749.4-2807. This is the first detection of X-ray eclipses in a system of this type and should enable a precise neutron star mass measurement once the companion star is identified and studied. We present a combined pulse and eclipse timing solution that enables tight constraints on the orbital parameters and inclination and shows that the companion mass is in the range 0.6-0.8 solar mass for a likely range of neutron star masses, and that it is larger than a main-sequence star of the same mass. We observed two individual eclipse egresses and a single ingress. Our timing model shows that the eclipse features are symmetric about the time of 90 longitude from the ascending node, as expected. Our eclipse timing solution gives an eclipse duration (from the mid-points of ingress to egress) of 2172+/-13 s. This represents 6.85% of the 8.82 hr orbital period. This system also presents a potential measurement of "Shapiro" delay due to general relativity; through this technique alone, we set an upper limit to the companion mass of 2.2 Solar mass .

Markwardt, C. B.↗

Discovery and Mass Measurements of a Cold, 10-Earth Mass Planet and Its Host Star

We present the discovery and mass measurement of the cold, low-mass planet MOA-2009-BLG-266Lb, made with the gravitational microlensing method. This planet has a mass of mp = 10.4 +/- M(Earth) and orbits a star of Mstar = 0.56 +/- 0.09 M(Sun) at a semi-major axis of a = 3.2 + 1.9/-0.5 AU, and an orbital period of 7.6 +7.7/-1.5 yrs. The planet and host star mass measurements are due to the measurement of the microlensing parallax effect. This measurement was primarily due to the orbital motion of the Earth, but the analysis also demonstrates the capability measure micro lensing parallax with the Deep Impact (or EPOXI) spacecraft in a Heliocentric orbit. The planet mass and orbital distance are similar to predictions for the critical core mass needed to accrete a substantial gaseous envelope, and thus may indicate that this planet is a failed gas giant. This and future microlensing detections will test planet formation theory predictions regarding the prevalence and masses of such planets

Barry, Richard K.↗

Swift J2058.4+0516: Discovery of a Possible Second Relativistic Tidal Disruption Flare

We report the discovery by the Swift hard X-ray monitor of the transient source Swift J2058.4+0516 (Sw J2058+05). Our multi-wavelength follow-up campaign uncovered a long-lived (duration approximately greater than months), luminous X-ray (L(sub x.iso) approximates 3 X 10(exp47) erg/s) and radio (vL(sub v.iso) approximates 10(exp 42) erg/s) counterpart. The associated optical emission, however, from which we measure a redshift of 1.1853, is relatively faint, and this is not due to a large amount of dust extinction in the host galaxy. Based on numerous similarities with the recently discovered GRB 110328A / Swift 1164449.3+573451 (Sw 11644+57), we suggest that Sw J2058+05 may be the second member of a new class of relativistic outbursts resulting from the tidal disruption of a star by a supermassive black hole. If so, the relative rarity of these sources implies that either these outflows are extremely narrowly collimated (theta < 1 deg), or only a small fraction of tidal disruptions generate relativistic ejecta. Analogous to the case of long duration gamma-ray bursts and core-collapse supernovae, we speculate that the spin of the black hole may be a necessary condition to generate the relativistic component. Alternatively, if powered by gas accretion (i.e., an active galactic nucleus), this would imply that some galaxies can transition from apparent quiescence to a radiatively efficient state of accretion on quite short time scales.

Cenko, S. Bradely↗

Low Altitude Mapping Orbit Design and Maintenance for the Dawn Discovery Mission at Vesta

NASA's Dawn discovery mission will orbit the giant asteroid Vesta beginning in the summer of 2011. Four different near polar science orbits are planned. The lowest planned orbit at Vesta is called the Low Altitude Mapping Orbit or LAMO and is by far the most challenging to design and maintain due to the strong, nonspherical gravity expected there. This paper describes the orbit selection process. The true gravity field of Vesta remains highly uncertain. The proposed orbit selection process will be applied once sufficient gravity knowledge is obtained at higher orbits. The orbit selection process is applied here to a fictitious gravity field based on a Hubble space telescope shape model for Vesta assuming uniform density. The outcome of the process described here is a variety of stable orbits. However, Initially stable orbits at the LAMO altitude are not expected to remain stable operationally due to the unpredictable impulses resulting from the Dawn spacecraft thruster firings to de-saturate its momentum wheels. As a result, orbital maintenance maneuvers will be probably be necessary. This paper also briefly describes the statistical maneuver design process that resulted in the orbit maintenance plan.

orbit stability↗

RIMAS - Optical Design Development of the Imager/Spectrometer for the Discovery Channel Telescope

The Rapid IMAger - Spectrometer (RIMAS) is a collaborative effort between the University of Maryland at College Park, NASA-GSFC and Lowell Observatory designed for use on the 4.3 meter Discovery Channel Telescope at Lowell. The primary science goal of the instrument is the study of gamma-ray burst (ORB) afterglow appearing in the near-infrared. Continuous operation will allow measurements beginning minutes after the prompt emission. We present the results of the RIMAS optical design development. The instrument consists of two arms separated by a dichroic: the first for the Y and J bands (0.9 - 1.35 microns) and the second for the Hand K-bands (1.5 - 1.8 and 2.0 - 2.4 microns). Each arm will be equipped with two broad band filters for imaging, as well as low resolution and echelle grisms. The imaging modes are designed to be diffraction limited, with one pixel corresponding to approx.0.35 arcseconds, while the diffractive modes have resolving powers of approximately 20 and 4,000. With photometric and spectroscopic capabilities, RIMAS will be well positioned to quickly determine redshifts, followed by high resolution spectroscopic studies of ORB afterglow.

Capone, John↗

Discovery of Nine Gamma-Ray Pulsars in Fermi-Lat Data Using a New Blind Search Method

We report the discovery of nine previously unknown gamma-ray pulsars in a blind search of data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). The pulsars were found with a novel hierarchical search method originally developed for detecting continuous gravitational waves from rapidly rotating neutron stars. Designed to find isolated pulsars spinning at up to kHz frequencies, the new method is computationally efficient, and incorporates several advances, including a metric-based gridding of the search parameter space (frequency, frequency derivative and sky location) and the use of photon probability weights. The nine pulsars have spin frequencies between 3 and 12 Hz, and characteristic ages ranging from 17 kyr to 3 Myr. Two of them, PSRs Jl803-2149 and J2111+4606, are young and energetic Galactic-plane pulsars (spin-down power above 6 x 10(exp 35) ergs per second and ages below 100 kyr). The seven remaining pulsars, PSRs J0106+4855, J010622+3749, Jl620-4927, Jl746-3239, J2028+3332,J2030+4415, J2139+4716, are older and less energetic; two of them are located at higher Galactic latitudes (|b| greater than 10 degrees). PSR J0106+4855 has the largest characteristic age (3 Myr) and the smallest surface magnetic field (2x 10(exp 11)G) of all LAT blind-search pulsars. PSR J2139+4716 has the lowest spin-down power (3 x l0(exp 33) erg per second) among all non-recycled gamma-ray pulsars ever found. Despite extensive multi-frequency observations, only PSR J0106+4855 has detectable pulsations in the radio band. The other eight pulsars belong to the increasing population of radio-quiet gamma-ray pulsars.

Celik-Tinmaz, Ozlem↗