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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

PV Performance Modeling and Stakeholder Engagement (Final Technical Report)

This core capability project’s objective is to increase the value of photovoltaic (PV) performance models by improving their functionality, demonstrating, and quantifying their validity, and offering a wide range of stakeholder engagement opportunities. In FY22-24, we developed new and improved modeling algorithms and functions to represent PV performance more accurately in a variety of environments and conditions. The “Model parameter toolkit” was developed and includes functions to translate between different module temperature models, incidence angle modifier models, and single-diode models. A new modeling capability named “PV Atlas” was also developed leveraging Sandia’s High Performance Computing resources. This capability allows us to investigate several questions and provide climate-specific best practices and geographic data files; all these are hosted on an interactive website on Sandia’s GitHub and can be used for training, system optimization, or to provide best practices for uncertainty reduction. For model validation, we published high-quality PV performance, and weather data; these data are well documented, filtered, and processed for quality and include examples on how to run PV simulations. We also developed well documented, standardized methods for validating PV models and ran independent model validation and 2 blind modeling intercomparisons engaging with 49 organizations from 17 countries. We co-led and contributed to a growing, well documented and maintained suite of open-source functions for PV modeling (i.e., the pvlib-python) and we outreached to the PV modeling stakeholders via the PVPMC workshops and web resources. In addition, this project supported US representation and leadership for the International Energy Agency (IEA) PVPS Task 13; specifically, members of our team led and supported 3 subtasks on: 1) Best practices for the optimization of bifacial photovoltaic tracking, 2) Extreme weather events and their multiple impact on PV power plants: Risks, failure mechanisms and mitigation strategies, and 3) Best practice guidelines for the use of economic and technical Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). This project resulted in the publications of 14 peer reviewed journal papers, 37 conference presentations, 6 SAND reports, 5 public datasets and 6 new webpages on the PVPMC website. It supported the release of 13 pvlib-python versions where 28 enhancements were from this PV Performance Modeling project. We co-organized 5 PVPMC workshops in FY22-24 with the participation of 214 unique institutions and around 700 participants. The PVPMC website was redesigned, and its reliability was improved; it receives over 50,000 visitors/year from 202 unique countries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Euro-Deterrent: Analysis of Proposals for a European Nuclear Arsenal (CNSIS Paper)

The idea of a “Euro-deterrent”—a nuclear arsenal under European control and mandated to protect multiple European countries—has been proposed many times as a means for European self-defense independent of United States security guarantees under the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This paper examines not only the concept’s multiple guises, but the reasons for their failure. It will address the idea of a Franco-British umbrella, a French umbrella, a European “pool”, and the nuclear arsenal of a hypothetical “united Europe”. Reasons for rejection largely fall into three categories: sovereignty concerns, credibility gaps, and a desire to preserve existing norms and structures. This paper concludes that the Euro-deterrent will likely remain only hypothetical unless the US unequivocally signals its intent to withdraw its nuclear umbrella from Europe, thereby forcing European countries to build a new defense arrangement.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

Community Choice Aggregation(CCA) Data Collection Webinar for Status and Trends in the Voluntary Market Report (2024 Data) [Slides]

We have subcontracted LEAN Energy US, to help us improve our CCA data collection effort for the Annual Voluntary Energy Markets Data Report. LEAN Energy US (Local Energy Aggregation Network) is a national 501(c)3 non-profit organization dedicated to accelerating the country's transition to clean and renewable power, supporting competition and customer choice in the energy sector, and maintaining affordable electricity rates. We work in partnership with a range of organizations to actively support the formation and operational success of Community Choice Aggregation (CCA) programs around the country. This webinar, hosted in partnership with LEAN Energy US, is intended to introduce their members to our data collection effort and encourage CCAs in their network to participate.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lessons Learned from Site Selection Efforts for Deep Geological Disposal

This report discusses international experiences from site selection of deep geological repositories (DGR) for radioactive waste disposal. Based on experiences from three countries with recent or ongoing site selections, the report describes different site selection approaches and summarizes lessons learned. The German and Swiss programs are two slightly different examples of one end of the spectrum of potential siting approaches: Starting with the entire country, a technically based downselection is performed to select the repository site. The Canadian program is an example of the other end of the spectrum: Here, the program started with an extensive engagement program with Canadians to collaboratively develop a socially acceptable and technically sound national approach for the long-term management of used nuclear fuel. This was followed by the launch of a collaboratively developed consent-based siting process designed to seek an informed and willing host with suitable sites, considering both technical and community well-being site requirements.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating IDP Origins Using ACLED Political Violence Events: Validation with Lebanon IDP Flow Data

A key input in modeling population distribution and flows following conflict events is the inclusion of Internally Displaced Person (IDP) flows between administrative units within a country. These flows are critical for capturing population movement and redistribution driven by current events, particularly conflict. In some cases, IDP destination data are available while origin data is incomplete or unavailable. This creates a gap in understanding where displacement is occurring, limiting the ability to model population redistribution accurately. Without origin data, it is not possible to reallocate population flows or accurately represent where displacement is occurring within the country. This report evaluates whether Armed Conflict Location Event Data (ACLED) political violence event data can be used to estimate IDP origin distributions when direct origin data are unavailable. The approach is validated using historical IDP flow data from Lebanon, where both origins and destinations are observed. Results show that ACLED event distributions strongly correspond to observed IDP-origin patterns, particularly when using cumulative 60-day event windows. The method is most reliable for identifying major origin districts and approximating proportional origin shares. However, it is not intended to reconstruct exact individual displacement flows, but rather to provide a probabilistic spatial allocation of displacement origins.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extreme Decentralized Water Treatment: Exploring the Future of Premise-Scale Water Treatment and Reuse

Access to an adequate quantity of piped water and management of wastewater produced in homes and businesses is an expectation of city dwellers in wealthy countries, and an aspiration for many people living in rapidly developing cities in low- and middle-income countries. It is also crucial to public health and protection of the environment. For well over a century, municipal drinking water provision and wastewater management have been made possible by large investments in centralized systems in which fresh water passes through a small number of drinking water treatment plants before being distributed through a vast underground pipe network to buildings throughout the city (Sedlak 2014). After it is used, wastewater is collected in underground sewers that route it to treatment plants prior to its discharge to the environment. In some water-stressed cities, a fraction of the treated wastewater undergoes additional treatment prior to reuse. This recycled water often is returned to users through another dedicated water distribution system, which is designated in many places with purple pipes (non-potable water reuse). Alternatively, treated wastewater may be subjected to advanced treatment (e.g., reverse osmosis followed by advanced oxidation) prior to being returned to the drinking water supply (potable water reuse).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meeting Global Health Needs via Infectious Disease Forecasting: Development of a Reliable Data-Driven Framework

Infectious diseases (IDs) have a significant detrimental impact on global health. Timely and accurate ID forecasting can result in more informed implementation of control measures and prevention policies. To meet the operational decision-making needs of real-world circumstances, we aimed to build a standardized, reliable, and trustworthy ID forecasting pipeline and visualization dashboard that is generalizable across a wide range of modeling techniques, IDs, and global locations. We forecasted 6 diverse, zoonotic diseases (brucellosis, campylobacteriosis, Middle East respiratory syndrome, Q fever, tick-borne encephalitis, and tularemia) across 4 continents and 8 countries. We included a wide range of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models (n=9) and trained them on a multitude of features (average n=2326) within the One Health landscape, including demography, landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. The pipeline and dashboard were created in consideration of crucial operational metrics—prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, spatiotemporal generalizability, uncertainty quantification, and interpretability—which are essential to strategic data-driven decisions. While no single best model was suitable for all disease, region, and country combinations, our ensemble technique selects the best-performing model for each given scenario to achieve the closest prediction. For new or emerging diseases in a region, the ensemble model can predict how the disease may behave in the new region using a pretrained model from a similar region with a history of that disease. The data visualization dashboard provides a clean interface of important analytical metrics, such as ID temporal patterns, forecasts, prediction uncertainties, and model feature importance across all geographic locations and disease combinations. As the need for real-time, operational ID forecasting capabilities increases, this standardized and automated platform for data collection, analysis, and reporting is a major step forward in enabling evidence-based public health decisions and policies for the prevention and mitigation of future ID outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Human fatalities resulting from wild pig attacks worldwide – 2000-2019

Although reported to be rare, human fatalities resulting from wild pig (Sus scrofa) attacks do occur. Toward a better understanding of patterns in fatal wild pig attacks, we synthesized worldwide reports of wild pig attacks on humans between 2000 and 2019. We documented 163 separate reports of fatal wild pig attacks that resulted in 172 human deaths. On average, 8.6 human deaths occurred annually due to wild pig attacks during those 2 decades. The majority of fatal attacks resulted in a single human death; however, there were 6 cases in which an individual fatal attack resulted in 2–4 human deaths. These fatal wild pig attacks occurred in 29 countries, mostly within the wild pig’s native global range. Fatal attacks primarily occurred under non-hunting circumstances and involved seemingly unprovoked wild pigs. Under hunting circumstances, fatal attacks primarily involved provoked or wounded wild pigs. Fatal attacks typically involved a solitary wild pig, with 12% involving multiple pigs. Solitary pigs involved in fatal attacks were typically large boars that in most attacks exhibited defensive behaviors, although we discovered 7 attacks during which the pig’s behaviors appeared to be predatory. Three fatal attacks were initially investigated as homicides. Overall, victims of fatal wild pig attacks were between 3 and 85 years old and were traveling on foot when the attack occurred. The majority of victims of fatal attacks were adult (20–59 years old), male, traveling on foot, and working in isolation. Among all fatal attacks, 50% identified the cause of death, which included exsanguination/hemorrhagic shock, severe injury, heart attack, craniocerebral injury, severe injury/disembowelment/intestinal prolapse, and toxemia/septicemia. Fatal wild pig attacks occurred primarily in rural areas, with fatal attacks 390% more likely to occur in rural areas with large populations and at least 45% forested and agricultural cover. The greater the rural human population size within a country is, the greater the number of fatal wild pig attacks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Early Inference of Nuclear Technology-Directed Research Activities of Authors from Scientific Publications

Nuclear research articles can provide information about early nuclear proliferation indicators such as influential research entities and technology capability levels of a country, but detection of nuclear activities typically occurs after they have started. We investigate the extent to which nuclear research articles can be used to infer whether a research entity will acquire or develop a nuclear technology before it happens. Early detection of nuclear proliferation or technology development indicators from data is challenging due to partial observability, sparse and unlabeled information, and confounding signals from multiple concurrent activities. This paper presents the early detection problem as a sequential decision-making, goal inference problem, where the objective is to characterize and predict an individual’s, organization’s, or a country’s intent (unobserved goal-directed behavior) towards developing a nuclear capability from partially observed sequences of their research publications, using inverse reinforcement learning and Bayesian goal inference methods. A computational framework is presented, and its application demonstrated using 29,196 Scopus records for a case study related to a civil nuclear capability. The case study results serve as a proof-of-concept demonstration for inference of technology-directed research activity of authors who publish in the nuclear domain. The inference method, combined with advanced computing, may be used to assess and monitor activities pertaining to early developmental stages of a nuclear technology or capability, which in turn can help to identify and prioritize activities with nuclear proliferation potential for further investigation.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of water scarcity on agricultural production and electricity generation in the Middle East and North Africa

Incorporating the interdependencies between water, energy and food (WEF) within an integrated approach of planning and management could help nations worldwide to address sustainability concerns. This is a topic of great importance for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where water is a very limited resource. In this study, we develop an analytical framework to analyze the water-energy-food nexus in the MENA region to inform the formulation of integrated strategies for water, energy and food activities. Our approach is based on an integrated assessment model for the MENA region, which explicitly represents WEF sectors within an economic framework, in tandem with a set of relevant scenarios addressing three key dimensions (socioeconomics, climate and water-management). Using this framework, our study analyzes the current and projected status of water resources in the region, and the potential implications for the agriculture and electricity sectors. Our scenarios demonstrate that water scarcity worsens by the end of the 21st century in most MENA countries, mostly due to growing demands. The impacts of growing scarcity on agriculture are significant, with production projected to drop by 60 percent by 2050 in some countries. On the other hand, and to a lesser extent, water-saving technologies and fuel-switching in the power sector play a key role in mitigating the effects of water scarcity on electricity generation in some parts of the MENA region. Our analysis then underscores the need to reduce the dependence of MENA’s agricultural and energy sectors on water, and transition to renewable energies to reduce water scarcity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Updated HIV-1 Consensus Sequences Change but Stay Within Similar Distance From Worldwide Samples

HIV consensus sequences are used in various bioinformatic, evolutionary, and vaccine related research. Since the previous HIV-1 subtype and CRF consensus sequences were constructed in 2002, the number of publicly available HIV-1 sequences have grown exponentially, especially from non-EU and US countries. Here, we reconstruct 90 new HIV-1 subtype and CRF consensus sequences from 3,470 high-quality, representative, full genome sequences in the LANL HIV database. While subtypes and CRFs are unevenly spread across the world, in total 89 countries were represented. For consensus sequences that were based on at least 20 genomes, we found that on average 2.3% (range 0.8–10%) of the consensus genome site states changed from 2002 to 2021, of which about half were nucleotide state differences and the rest insertions and deletions. Interestingly, the 2021 consensus sequences were shorter than in 2002, and compared to 4,674 HIV-1 worldwide genome sequences, the 2021 consensuses were somewhat closer to the worldwide genome sequences, i.e., showing on average fewer nucleotide state differences. Some subtypes/CRFs have had limited geographical spread, and thus sampling of subtypes/CRFs is uneven, at least in part, due to the epidemiological dynamics. Thus, taken as a whole, the 2021 consensus sequences likely are good representations of the typical subtype/CRF genome nucleotide states. The new consensus sequences are available at the LANL HIV database.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

It takes a village: using a crowdsourced approach to investigate organic matter composition in global rivers through the lens of ecological theory

Though community-based scientific approaches are becoming more common, many scientific efforts are conducted by small groups of researchers that together develop a concept, analyze data, and interpret results that ultimately translate into a publication. Here, we present a community effort that breaks these traditional boundaries of the publication process by engaging the scientific community from initial hypothesis generation to final publication. We leverage community-generated data from the Worldwide Hydrobiogeochemistry Observation Network for Dynamic River Systems (WHONDRS) consortium to study organic matter composition through the lens of ecological theory. This community endeavor will use a suite of paired physical and chemical datasets collected from 97 river corridors across the globe. With our first step aimed at ideation, we engaged a community of scientists from 20 countries and 60 institutions, spanning disciplines and career stages by holding a virtual workshop (April 2021). In the workshop, participants generated content for questions, hypotheses, and proposed analyses based on the WHONDRS dataset. These ideation efforts resulted in several narratives investigating different questions led by different teams, which will be the basis for research articles in a Frontiers in Water collection. Currently, the community is collectively analyzing, interpreting, and synthesizing these data that will result in seven crowdsourced articles using a single, existing WHONDRS dataset. The use of a shared dataset across articles not only lowers barriers for broad participation by not requiring generation of new data, but also provides unique opportunities for emergent learning by connecting outcomes across studies. Here we will explain methods used to enable this community endeavor aimed to promote a greater diversity of thinking on river corridor biogeochemistry through community science.

Borton, Mikayla A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Field Epidemiology Training Program’s Contribution to Essential Public Health Functions in Seven National Public Health Institutes

Objective: This study explores how Field Epidemiology Training Programs (FETP) whose National Public Health Institutes (NPHI) are supported by U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have contributed to strengthening essential public health functions. Methods: We conducted 96 semi-structured interviews with public health experts including NPHI staff, non-NPHI government staff, and staff from non-governmental and international organizations in Cambodia, Colombia, Liberia, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, and Zambia. We managed data using MAXQDA and employed direct content analysis to derive themes. Results: Three overarching themes emerged in relation to FETPs’ role within the NPHIs’ public health functions. These themes included contribution to improving country surveillance systems, role in providing leadership in outbreak responses, and strengthening countries’ and the NPHIs’ surveillance workforce capacity. Participants also shared challenges around FETPs’ implementation and suggestions for improvement. Conclusion: The results demonstrate the value of FETPs in strengthening public health systems through building workforce capacity and improving surveillance systems. By identifying the successes of FETPs in contributing to essential public health functions, our findings might inform current and future FETP implementation and its integration into NPHIs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using Low-Cost Measurement Systems to Investigate Air Quality: A Case Study in Palapye, Botswana

Exposure to particulate air pollution is a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. In developing countries, the combustion of solid fuels is widely used as a source of energy, and this process can produce exposure to harmful levels of particulate matter with diameters smaller than 2.5 microns (PM 2.5 ). However, as countries develop, solid fuel may be replaced by centralized coal combustion, and vehicles burning diesel and gasoline may become common, changing the concentration and composition of PM 2.5 , which ultimately changes the population health effects. Therefore, there is a continuous need for in-situ monitoring of air pollution in developing nations, both to estimate human exposure and to monitor changes in air quality. In this study, we present measurements from a 5-week field experiment in Palapye, Botswana. We used a low-cost, highly portable instrument package to measure surface-based aerosol optical depth (AOD), real-time surface PM 2.5 concentrations using a third-party optical sensor, and time-integrated PM 2.5 concentration and composition by collecting PM 2.5 onto Teflon filters. Furthermore, we employed other low-cost measurements of real-time black carbon and time-integrated ammonia to help interpret the observed PM 2.5 composition and concentration information during the field experiment. We found that the average PM 2.5 concentration (9.5 μg∙m –3 ) was below the World Health Organization (WHO) annual limit, and this concentration closely agrees with estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) report estimates for this region. Sulfate aerosol and carbonaceous aerosol, likely from coal combustion and biomass burning, respectively, were the main contributors to PM 2.5 by mass (33% and 27% of total PM 2.5 mass, respectively). While these observed concentrations were on average below WHO guidelines, we found that the measurement site experienced higher concentrations of aerosol during first half our measurement period (14.5 μg∙m –3 ), which is classified as "moderately unhealthy" according to the WHO standard.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Missing Pieces: The Role of Secretion Systems in Campylobacter jejuni Virulence

Campylobacter jejuni is likely the most common bacterial cause of gastroenteritis worldwide, responsible for millions of cases of inflammatory diarrhea characterized by severe abdominal cramps and blood in the stool. Further, C. jejuni infections are associated with post-infection sequelae in developed countries and malnutrition and growth-stunting in low- and middle-income countries. Despite the increasing prevalence of the disease, campylobacteriosis, and the recognition that this pathogen is a serious health threat, our understanding of C. jejuni pathogenesis remains incomplete. In this review, we focus on the Campylobacter secretion systems proposed to contribute to host-cell interactions and survival in the host. Moreover, we have applied a genomics approach to defining the structural and mechanistic features of C. jejuni type III, IV, and VI secretion systems. Special attention is focused on the flagellar type III secretion system and the prediction of putative effectors, given that the proteins exported via this system are essential for host cell invasion and the inflammatory response. We conclude that C. jejuni does not possess a type IV secretion system and relies on the type III and type VI secretion systems to establish a niche and potentiate disease.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identification of a Continuously Stable and Commercially Available Cell Line for the Identification of Infectious African Swine Fever Virus in Clinical Samples

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is causing outbreaks both in domestic pigs and wild boar in Europe and Asia. In 2018, the largest pig producing country, China, reported its first outbreak of African swine fever (ASF). Since then, the disease has quickly spread to all provinces in China and to other countries in southeast Asia, and most recently to India. Outbreaks of the disease occur in Europe as far west as Poland, and one isolated outbreak has been reported in Belgium. The current outbreak strain is highly contagious and can cause a high degree of lethality in domestic pigs, leading to widespread and costly losses to the industry. Currently, detection of infectious ASFV in field clinical samples requires accessibility to primary swine macrophage cultures, which are infrequently available in most regional veterinary diagnostic laboratories. Here, we report the identification of a commercially available cell line, MA-104, as a suitable substrate for virus isolation of African swine fever virus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Laboratory Infection of Novel Akhmeta Virus in CAST/EiJ Mice

Akhmeta virus is a zoonotic Orthopoxvirus first identified in 2013 in the country of Georgia. Subsequent ecological investigations in Georgia have found evidence that this virus is widespread in its geographic distribution within the country and in its host-range, with rodents likely involved in its circulation in the wild. Yet, little is known about the pathogenicity of this virus in rodents. We conducted the first laboratory infection of Akhmeta virus in CAST/EiJ Mus musculus to further characterize this novel virus. We found a dose-dependent effect on mortality and weight loss (p < 0.05). Anti-orthopoxvirus antibodies were detected in the second- and third-highest dose groups (5 × 104 pfu and 3 × 102 pfu) at euthanasia by day 10, and day 14 post-infection, respectively. Anti-orthopoxvirus antibodies were not detected in the highest dose group (3 × 106 pfu), which were euthanized at day 7 post-infection and had high viral load in tissues, suggesting they succumbed to disease prior to mounting an effective immune response. In order of highest burden, viable virus was detected in the nostril, lung, tail, liver and spleen. All individuals tested in the highest dose groups were DNAemic. Akhmeta virus was highly pathogenic in CAST/EiJ Mus musculus, causing 100% mortality when ≥3 × 102 pfu was administered.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Retrospective Analysis Reveals That the 2021 Outbreaks of African Swine Fever Virus in Ghana Were Caused by Two Distinct Genotypes

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is the causative agent of African swine fever (ASF), a highly infectious and lethal disease of domesticated swine. Outbreaks of ASF have been mostly restricted to the continent of Africa. The outbreaks that have occurred outside of Africa were controlled by extensive depopulation of the domesticated pig population. However, in 2007, an outbreak occurred in the country of Georgia, where ASFV infected wild pigs and quickly spread across eastern Europe. Since the reintroduction of ASF into Europe, variants of the current pandemic strain, ASFV Georgia 2007/01 (ASFV-G), which is classified as Genotype 2 based on p72 sequencing, have been reported in countries within western Europe, Asia, and the island of Hispaniola. Additionally, isolates collected in 2020 confirmed the presence of variants of ASFV-G in Nigeria. Recently, we reported similar variants of ASFV-G collected from domestic pigs suspected of dying of ASF in Ghana in 2022. Here, we retroactively report, based on full-length sequencing, that similar variants were present in Ghana in 2021. The SNP analysis revealed derivatives of ASFV with distinct genetic markers. Furthermore, we identified three full-length ASFV genomes as Genotype 1, indicating that there were two genotypes circulating in proximity during the 2021 ASF outbreaks in Ghana.

Virology↗