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At least 307 records · Page 17

Global Rescue Response to a Multivehicle Deorbit from the International Space Station

The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has been tasked to support rescue efforts in the event of an off-nominal landing of a Commercial Crew Program vehicle transporting NASA crewmembers to or from the International Space Station. The DoD is further tasked to support returning U.S. and International Partner crewmembers on Russian Soyuz spacecraft missions, specifically to ensure aeromedical evacuation capability in the event of a crewmember injury at the time of launch or landing. This DoD mission is primarily considered during planned launch and landing operations, with forces placed in an alert posture to support if needed. However, overall mission concept of operations encompasses a no-notice rescue capability in the event of an on-orbit emergency. Such contingency scenarios are pre-coordinated and simulated to ensure a ready posture of associated DoD assets and to promote coordination of government, commercial, and military stakeholders. To date, planning and simulations have focused on execution of a single rescue mission; the possibility of a multi-vehicle evacuation and rescue scenario has not been adequately explored. This presentation will examine the process of responding to an emergency onboard the International Space Station that results in the early departure and deorbit of multiple docked vehicles to preserve the health and safety of the crew. We will highlight the complexity of this recovery scenario and discuss potential complications that could arise, as well as identify areas in which deliberate planning and simulation can better ensure successful preparation for such a multifaceted recovery operation.

Travis Levon Houser↗

NTESS Retirement Income Plan Summary Plan Description

National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia LLC (NTESS) is pleased to sponsor for your benefit the NTESS Retirement Income Plan (RIP or Pension Plan), formerly known as the Sandia Corporation Retirement Income Plan, which is designed to provide a source of continuing income during retirement for covered employees. This Summary Plan Description (SPD) explains how to determine if you will be eligible for a benefit from the Pension Plan when you retire or terminate your employment. Under certain circumstances, reduced pension benefits can be continued to your Spouse or a contingent annuitant, following your death. This SPD includes the provisions of the RIP as of January 1, 2020. The pension benefits described in this SPD apply to Eligible Employees (as defined in Questions 1 and 2) who experience a Termination of Employment (as defined in Appendix A) with NTESS or another Affiliated Company (as defined in Appendix A) on or after this date. More detailed information is contained in the NTESS Retirement Income Plan document, which governs the operation of this Pension Plan. In the event there is or appears to be any discrepancy between the terms of the RIP document and this SPD, the terms of the RIP document control.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

STS-71, Space Shuttle Mission Report

The STS-71 Space Shuttle Program Mission Report summarizes the Payload activities and provides detailed data on the Orbiter, External Tank (ET), Solid Rocket Booster (SRB), Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM), and the Space Shuttle main engine (SSME) systems performance. STS-71 is the 100th United States manned space flight, the sixty-ninth Space Shuttle flight, the forty-fourth flight since the return-to-flight, the fourteenth flight of the OV-104 Orbiter vehicle Atlantis, and the first joint United States (U.S.)-Russian docking mission since 1975. In addition to the OV-104 Orbiter vehicle, the flight vehicle consisted of an ET that was designated ET-70; three SSMEs that were designated 2028, 2034, and 2032 in positions 1, 2, and 3, respectively; and two SRBs that were designated Bl-072. The RSRMs that were an integral part of the SRBs were designated 360L045A for the left SRB and 360W045B for the right SRB. The STS-71 mission was planned as a 1 0-day plus 1-day-extension mission plus 2 additional days for contingency operations and weather avoidance. The primary objectives of this flight were to rendezvous and dock with the Mir Space Station and perform on-orbit joint U.S.-Russian life sciences investigations, logistical resupply of the Mir Space Station, return of the United States astronaut flying on the Mir, the replacement of the Mir-18 crew with the two-cosmonaut Mir-19 crew, and the return of the Mir-18 crew to Earth. The secondary objectives were to perform the requirements of the IMAX Camera and the Shuttle Amateur Radio experiment-2 (SAREX-2).

Frike, Robert W., Jr.↗

STS-114: Discovery L-3 Countdown Status Briefing

Bruce Buckingham of NASA Public Affair hosted this briefing. Jeff Spaulding, NASA Test Director; Scott Higgenbotham, STS-114 Payload-Mission Manager; Cathy Winters, Shuttle Weather Officer were present. Jeff specifically noted that the mission represents NASA's first step towards fulfilling the President's visions of returning to the Moon and then on to Mars and beyond. Scott reports that the 28,000 pounds of ISS hardware that is in the payload bay of the Discovery is ready to go, and completed final close outs. Cathy mentioned that Hurricane Dennis is not a threat, however, main threat of inland thunderstorms would result to 30% weather prohibiting launch. Cathy further gave current weather forecast supported with charts: the Launch Forecast, Tanking Forecast, SRB (Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster) Forecast, CONUS and TAL Launch Sites Forecast and with 24 hours and 48 hours turn around plan. Final inspections, ice formation, ice inspection, effect of weather conditions to the external tank, delays and contingencies were some of the topics covered with the News Media.

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Tug fleet and ground operations schedules and controls. Volume 1: Executive summary

This study presents Tug Fleet and Ground Operations Schedules and Controls plan. This plan was developed and optimized out of a combination of individual Tug program phased subplans, special emphasis studies, contingency analyses and sensitivity analyses. The subplans cover the Tug program phases: (1) Tug operational, (2) Interim Upper Stage (IUS)/Tug fleet utilization, (3) and IUS/Tug payload integration, (4) Tug site activation, (5) IUS/Tug transition, (6) Tug acquisition. Resource requirements (facility, GSE, TSE, software, manpower, logistics) are provided in each subplan, as are appropriate Tug processing flows, active and total IUS and Tug fleet requirements, fleet management and Tug payload integration concepts, facility selection recommendations, site activation and IUS to Tug transition requirements. The impact of operational concepts on Tug acquisition is assessed and the impact of operating Tugs out of KSC and WTR is analyzed and presented showing WTR as a delta. Finally, cost estimates for fleet management and ground operations of the DDT&E and operational phases of the Tug program are given.

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ATC contingency operations in the en-route flight regime

Air traffic control (ATC) operations were examined to learn what factors of controller performance should be given consideration in the design and development of future automation systems enhancing ATC. Contingencies were of two types: those constraining airspace usage or traffic flow (i.e., weather); and those related to system and equipment usage (i.e., radar/radio status). Examination of controller response to contingencies and workload pressures showed differing effects on controller allocations of effort among the three primary function of planning, monitoring, and informaton transfer. Automation advancements oriented towards aiding the controller in performing monitoring tasks may offer the most substantial safety benefit.

Lyman, E. G.↗

Re-scheduling as a tool for the power management on board a spacecraft

The scheduling of events on board a spacecraft is based on forecast energy levels. The real time values of energy may not coincide with the forecast values; consequently, a dynamic revising to the allocation of power is needed. The re-scheduling is also needed for other reasons on board a spacecraft like the addition of new event which must be scheduled, or a failure of an event due to many different contingencies. This need of rescheduling is very important to the survivability of the spacecraft. In this presentation, a re-scheduling tool will be presented as a part of an overall scheme for the power management on board a spacecraft from the allocation of energy point of view. The overall scheme is based on the optimal use of energy available on board a spacecraft using expert systems combined with linear optimization techniques. The system will be able to schedule maximum number of events utilizing most energy available. The outcome is more events scheduled to share the operation cost of that spacecraft. The system will also be able to re-schedule in case of a contingency with minimal time and minimal disturbance of the original schedule. The end product is a fully integrated planning system capable of producing the right decisions in short time with less human error. The overall system will be presented with the re-scheduling algorithm discussed in detail, then the tests and results will be presented for validations.

Albasheer, Omar↗

Contingency Management Requirements Document: Preliminary Version. Revision F

This is the High Altitude, Long Endurance (HALE) Remotely Operated Aircraft (ROA) Contingency Management (CM) Functional Requirements document. This document applies to HALE ROA operating within the National Airspace System (NAS) limited at this time to enroute operations above 43,000 feet (defined as Step 1 of the Access 5 project, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration). A contingency is an unforeseen event requiring a response. The unforeseen event may be an emergency, an incident, a deviation, or an observation. Contingency Management (CM) is the process of evaluating the event, deciding on the proper course of action (a plan), and successfully executing the plan.

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The Challenge of Achieving Site Closure of a Complex Groundwater Plume - 20531

Over the last three decades, DOE has made substantial progress in nearly every area of nuclear waste cleanup and has closed and transitioned 91 of the 107 sites in the EM complex. Several of the remaining groundwater plumes at Hanford, Los Alamos, Paducah, Oak Ridge, and Savannah River are complex and tend to have unique site or contaminant characteristics which provide an almost impossible challenge to remediate to regulatory levels. As a result, these complex sites will require a large investment to remediate. In order for DOE to achieve regulatory closure, a technically sound case must be developed and presented to regulators and stakeholders that clearly demonstrates that remedial goals have been or will be irreversibly achieved or that there is an alternate acceptable end-state. Five lines of evidence are required: - A conceptual site model that is as complete as possible, with the knowledge that it may continue to evolve with time; - Demonstration that trends in contaminant concentrations, or flux, versus time indicate that remedial goals will be achieved on schedule or within a reasonable time thereafter and that trends that deviate from this path are explainable by the conceptual model; - Demonstration that remobilization of attenuated contaminants is unlikely to occur in the future; - Explicit consideration of remedial contingencies, should deviations in the path toward remedial goals occur; - Development of an effective long-term monitoring plan to detect any conditions that might alter the path toward remedial goals. SRS has made significant progress in the remediation of contamination associated with the F-area and H-Area Seepage Basins, and it is currently developing a strategic closure path that addresses each of these lines of evidence and identifies both basic and applied scientific issues that will need to be addressed in order to obtain regulatory closure. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Contingency maneuver strategies for the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer-Earth Probe (TOMS-EP)

The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer-Earth Probe (TOMS-EP) is a polar-orbiting spacecraft designed to measure total ozone levels in the Earth's atmosphere. The nominal mission orbit is a 955-kilometer circular Sun-synchronous orbit with an ascending node mean local crossing time (MLT) between 11:02 a.m. and 11:25 a.m. These two mean local ascending node times constitute the boundaries of the MLT box for this mission. The MLT boundaries were chosen to maintain the Sun-to-Earth-to-vehicle orbit-normal (SVN) angle within a preselected set of seasonally independent boundaries. Because the SVN angle is seasonally dependent, but the MLT is not, contingency options for correcting the MLT of orbital states that fall outside of the required MLT range become time dependent. This paper focuses on contingency orbit adjustment strategies developed at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) during the mission planning phase of TOMS-EP. Time-dependent delta-V strategies are presented for correcting mission orbit states lying outside of the MLT range. Typically, passive control of the MLT drift rate can be used to restore the orbit state to the required MLT before a seasonal violation of SVN angle constraints can occur. Passive control of the MLT drift rate is obtained through adjustment of the semimajor axis and/or the inclination. The time between initial arrival on orbit at an 'out-of-the box' MLT state and violation of the SVN angle constraints is always less than or equal to 1 year. The choice of which parameter(s) to adjust is dictated by the duration of this time period, the desired mission lifetime, the delta-V cost, and operational constraints.

Kestler, James↗

Optimal Energy Storage System and Smart Switch Placement in Dynamic Microgrids With Applications to Marine Energy Integration

Here this paper studies a dynamic microgrid (DMG) planning problem that places energy storage systems (ESSs) and smart switches (SSWs) optimally in the system. We apply the proposed methodology to applications concerning marine renewable energy (MRE). MRE is an emerging clean energy resource with enormous capacity but volatile and intermittent energy output profiles. Innovative grid-integration technologies designed to enhance the reliability of an MRE-integrated system are needed. However, there are still limited studies in this regard. Existing works have shown the promising prospect of using a dynamic microgrid (DMG) operational concept to accommodate renewable resources in distribution systems, but they usually assume fixed ESS and SSW installations. To further improve the operational flexibility of DMGs, we propose a DMG planning methodology that optimally places ESSs and SSWs so that a DMG with MRE is warranted with proper resource adequacy and topological flexibility in both the contingency and normal operations. We use realistic case studies based on a real-world distribution network and the U.S. Department of Energy's MRE dataset to verify the value and validity of the proposed work.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Automated control of hierarchical systems using value-driven methods

An introduction is given to the Value-driven methodology, which has been successfully applied to solve a variety of difficult decision, control, and optimization problems. Many real-world decision processes (e.g., those encountered in scheduling, allocation, and command and control) involve a hierarchy of complex planning considerations. For such problems it is virtually impossible to define a fixed set of rules that will operate satisfactorily over the full range of probable contingencies. Decision Science Applications' value-driven methodology offers a systematic way of automating the intuitive, common-sense approach used by human planners. The inherent responsiveness of value-driven systems to user-controlled priorities makes them particularly suitable for semi-automated applications in which the user must remain in command of the systems operation. Three examples of the practical application of the approach in the automation of hierarchical decision processes are discussed: the TAC Brawler air-to-air combat simulation is a four-level computerized hierarchy; the autonomous underwater vehicle mission planning system is a three-level control system; and the Space Station Freedom electrical power control and scheduling system is designed as a two-level hierarchy. The methodology is compared with rule-based systems and with other more widely-known optimization techniques.

Pugh, George E.↗

Statistical Steady-State Stability Analysis for Transmission System Planning for Offshore Wind Power Plant Integration

This paper presents a statistical steady-state stability analysis for transmission system planning studies in order to identify operational issues inherent in the integration of offshore wind power plants. It includes normal and contingency operation. This study considers the integration of a 1000-MW offshore wind power plant into the FirstEnergy/PJM service territory in the U.S. Great Lakes region as a case study and uses a realistic computer model of the U.S. Eastern Interconnection, a 63,000-bus test system. The results show the utility of this statistical analysis tool and its effectiveness in identification of the operational impacts as a result of the integration of offshore wind power plant.

Sajadi, Amirhossein↗

Manual Crew Override of Vehicle Landings Following G-Transitions

BACKGROUND Manual control during exploration spaceflight consists of both planned automated supervisory control and unplanned crew override. This crew override capability is critical to enable overall mission success during landing contingencies. However, the introduction of manual override capabilities must be implemented to enable crews to mitigate risks introduced by human error. Adaptive changes in the sensorimotor system can manifest during g-transitions as spatial disorientation. While training and landing aids enable successful landing through disorientation, these adaptive changes may increase cognitive demand that needs to be accounted for in the manual control strategy. It is important to characterize these effects as soon as possible following the G-transition to develop appropriate countermeasures. METHODS In this study, we will examine operational piloting tasks following International Space Station (ISS) missions in a simulated lunar landing using a six-degree-of-freedom (6DOF) motion base. The motion-based simulation will be implemented in our laboratory at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) and will be available within hours following the return from commercial crew landings. The primary goals of this study are (1) to understand the impact of spaceflight on crew ability to perform manual crew override tasks, (2) to examine how adaptive changes in vestibular and cognitive function relate to changes in manual crew override proficiency, and (3) compare performance during late “just-in-time” on-board training with early post-flight crew performance. The impact of spaceflight on piloting capability will be assessed from pre- versus post-flight changes in crewmembers assigned to either short duration (< 30 day) or long duration (~6- month) missions to the International Space Station (ISS). Individual differences in post-flight vestibular and cognitive changes include motion sickness reports, measures of tilt motion perception accuracy and precision, and dual-task tracking. During the 6DOF lunar simulation, the crew will manually takeover attitude and rate-of-descent to the nominal or re-designated landing aim point during the approach phase. The outcome measures for the lunar crew override tasks will be the percent time maintaining actual vehicle states, e.g., attitude and rate-of-descent, within recommended guidance during the landing approach, number and maximum deviation outside limits, and root mean square error (RMSE). Given that “just-in-time” (JIT) training is an operational expectation for the Human Landing System (HLS) program, all participants will perform late inflight JIT training for each manual crew override task in which they will participate. Crew proficiency will be captured inflight during JIT training that will be implemented on a laptop with hand controllers to allow the crewmember to practice the landing task procedures like the approach implemented for JIT training with Shuttle landing and ISS telerobotic tasks. COUNTERMEASURE UPDATES The lunar lander simulation has been implemented onto a two-laptop display system where subjects select from alternative landing points, based upon avoiding hazards that the on-board system identifies during the landing. The subject makes inputs using a rotational hand controller (i.e., joystick) and a translational hand controller, which are processed by simulated vehicle dynamics to update the vehicle attitude and rate of descent. Subjects will utilize a combination of flight, situation, and status displays to monitor the state of the simulated vehicle. The simulation exports tilt and translation movements to a 6DOF motion base synced to visual movements and provides representative vestibular cues to the subject while performing the task inside an enclosed cabin featuring a simulated lunar out-the-window view and a heads-down lander cockpit view. RELEVANCE This project will deliver an operational demonstration of crew override capability following spaceflight and identify potential deficits that may require remediation. Comparison of individual vestibular and cognitive changes with crew override performance will help better characterize the manual control risks associated with sensorimotor alterations. The inclusion of “just-in-time” on-board training will ensure we are characterizing changes in override proficiency with this expected countermeasure in place. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: The authors acknowledge contributions from Draper, HLS Joint Test Panel, Crew HLS Interfaces for Piloting Working Group, and Dynamic Skills Trainer (DST) Lab toward the development of the lunar landing simulation. This project is funded by the Human Health Countermeasures Element.

Austin M Bollinger↗

Manual Crew Override of Vehicle Landings Following G-Transitions

BACKGROUND Manual control during exploration spaceflight consists of both planned automated supervisory control and unplanned crew override. This crew override capability is critical to enable overall mission success during landing contingencies. However, the introduction of manual override capabilities must be implemented to enable crews to mitigate risks introduced by human error. Adaptive changes in the sensorimotor system can manifest during g-transitions as spatial disorientation. While training and landing aids enable successful landing through disorientation, these adaptive changes may increase cognitive demand that needs to be accounted for in the manual control strategy. It is important to characterize these effects as soon as possible following the G-transition to develop appropriate countermeasures. METHODS The following study seeks to inform the risk associated with altered sensorimotor and vestibular function impacting critical mission tasks. We aim to characterize the effects of short and long-duration weightlessness on manual control following G-transitions using simulated lunar landing on a six-degree-of-freedom (6DOF) motion base, a fixed base simulation, and a supervisory control tablet task. The primary goal is to understand the impact of spaceflight on crew ability to perform manual crew override and supervisory control. This aim will be assessed by comparing pre- versus postflight simulation performance in crewmembers assigned to either short duration (< 30 day) or long duration (~6- month) missions to the International Space Station (ISS). We hypothesize there will be postflight increases in the percent time that pilots are outside of the acceptable range for recommended vehicle state parameters and the reaction time for secondary cognitive tasks. Ground-based control subjects, who are demographically matched to the crew considering age (± 5 years) and gender, will undergo the same testing schedule as the crew to examine the effects of flight phase independent of microgravity exposure. The second aim is to examine how adaptive changes in vestibular and cognitive function relate to changes in manual crew override proficiency. Crew performance for a sensorimotor perceptual test battery will evaluate motion perception tracking, roll nulling, and/or vection sensitivity using the 6DOF motion base. We hypothesize that a higher severity of vestibular alterations will be associated with increased percent time outside of guidance limits. Motion sickness severity and sleepiness will also be evaluated. To determine the impact of “just-in-time” training, the third aim seeks to compare performance during on-board lunar landing tasks conducted late in-flight to early postflight. We hypothesize that proficiency on the “just-in-time” laptop trainer late in mission will be positively correlated with early postflight proficiency on the same task. The final aim will establish assessments of performance, training protocols, and the learning progression in a ground-control cohort of first-time users. RESULTS The assessment of the learning progression associated with the piloting task on the motion base system with thirty ground subjects will be reported. Learning curves will be established across four distinct sessions and within session considering trial difficulty. The difficulty of the landing task can be modulated with the landing divert distance and cross or downrange difficulty. Results may include changes in performance across multiple trials of a multi-attribute lunar tablet supervisory control task. Preliminary investigations of eighteen subjects who completed vestibular threshold and motion perception tasks offer expected performance ranges for upcoming preflight crew evaluations. The results yielded an average roll threshold of 0.46 ± 0.30 deg/s and an average roll nulling root mean square error performance of 2.52 ± 0.52 deg/s. RELEVANCE This project will deliver an operational demonstration of crew monitoring capability following spaceflight and identify potential deficits that may require remediation. Comparison of individual vestibular and cognitive changes with crew performance will help better characterize the manual control risks associated with sensorimotor alterations. Ground testing will evaluate learning progression, refine training protocols, and serve as a control cohort for comparisons to crew performance. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: The authors acknowledge contributions from Draper, the Dynamic Skills Trainer (DST) Lab, and the Software, Robotics, and Simulation Division toward the development of the lunar landing simulation platforms. This project is funded by the Human Health Countermeasures Element.

Hannah M. Weiss↗

Autonomous Medical Care for Exploration

The goal of Autonomous Medical Care (AMC) is to ensure a healthy, well-performing crew which is a primary need for exploration. The end result of this effort will be the requirements and design for medical systems for the CEV, lunar operations, and Martian operations as well as a ground-based crew health optimization plan. Without such systems, we increase the risk of medical events occurring during a mission and we risk being unable to deal with contingencies of illness and injury, potentially threatening mission success. AMC has two major components: 1) pre-flight crew health optimization and 2) in-flight medical care. The goal of pre-flight crew health optimization is to reduce the risk of illness occurring during a mission by primary prevention and prophylactic measures. In-flight autonomous medical care is the capability to provide medical care during a mission with little or no real-time support from Earth. Crew medical officers or other crew members provide routine medical care as well as medical care to ill or injured crew members using resources available in their location. Ground support becomes telemedical consultation on-board systems/people collect relevant data for ground support to review. The AMC system provides capabilities to incorporate new procedures and training and advice as required. The on-board resources in an autonomous system should be as intelligent and integrated as is feasible, but autonomous does not mean that no human will be involved. The medical field is changing rapidly, and so a challenge is to determine which items to pursue now, which to leverage other efforts (e.g. military), and which to wait for commercial forces to mature. Given that what is used for the CEV or the Moon will likely be updated before going to Mars, a critical piece of the system design will be an architecture that provides for easy incorporation of new technologies into the system. Another challenge is to determine the level of care to provide for each mission type. The level of care refers to the amount and type of care one will render based on perceived need and ability. This is in contrast to the standard of care which is the benchmark by which that care is provided. There are certainly some devices and procedures that have unique microgravity or partial gravity requirements such that terrestrial methods will not work. For example, performing CPR on Mars cannot be done in exactly the same way as on Earth because the reduced gravity causes too large a reduction in the forces available for effective compression of the chest. Likewise, fluid behavior in microgravity may require a specialized water filtration and mixing system for the creation of intravenous fluids. This paper will outline the drivers for the design of the medical care systems, prioritization and planning techniques, key system components, and long term goals.

Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.↗

Requirements, Resource Planning, and Management for Decrewing/Recrewing Scenarios of the International Space Station

Following the failure of 44 Progress (44P) on launch in August 2011, and the subsequent grounding of all Russian Soyuz rocket based launches, the International Space Station (ISS) ground teams engaged in an effort to determine how long the ISS could remain crewed, what would be required to safely configure the ISS for decrewing, and what would be required to recrew the ISS upon resumption of Soyuz rocket launches if decrewing became necessary. This White Paper was written to capture the processes and lessons learned from real-time time events and to provide a reference and training document for ISS Program teams in the event decrewing of the ISS is needed. Through coordination meetings and assessments, teams identified six decrewing priorities for ground and crew operations. These priorities were integrated along with preflight priorities through the Increment re-planning process. Additionally, the teams reviewed, updated, and implemented changes to the governing documentation for the configuration of the ISS for a contingency decrewing event. Steps were taken to identify critical items for disposal prior to decrewing, as well as identifying the required items to be strategically staged or flown with the astronauts and cosmonauts who would eventually recrew the ISS. After the successful launches and dockings of both 45P and 28 Soyuz (28S), the decrewing team transitioned to finalizing and publishing the documentation for standardizing the decrewing flight rules. With the continued launching of crews and cargo to the ISS, utilization and science is again a high priority; both Increment pairs 29 and 30, and Increment 31 and 32 reaching the milestone of at least 35 hours per week average utilization.

Bach, David A.↗

Decomposition of Sources of Errors in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting over the U.S. Sunbelt

Seasonal streamflow forecasts, contingent on climate information, can be utilized to ensure water supply for multiple uses including municipal demands, hydroelectric power generation, and for planning agricultural operations. However, uncertainties in the streamflow forecasts pose significant challenges in their utilization in real-time operations. In this study, we systematically decompose various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecasts from two Land Surface Models (LSMs) (Noah3.2 and CLM2), which are forced with downscaled and disaggregated climate forecasts. In particular, the study quantifies the relative contributions of the sources of errors from LSMs, climate forecasts, and downscaling/disaggregation techniques in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. For this purpose, three month ahead seasonal precipitation forecasts from the ECHAM4.5 general circulation model (GCM) were statistically downscaled from 2.8deg to 1/8deg spatial resolution using principal component regression (PCR) and then temporally disaggregated from monthly to daily time step using kernel-nearest neighbor (K-NN) approach. For other climatic forcings, excluding precipitation, we considered the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (NLDAS-2) hourly climatology over the years 1979 to 2010. Then the selected LSMs were forced with precipitation forecasts and NLDAS-2 hourly climatology to develop retrospective seasonal streamflow forecasts over a period of 20 years (1991-2010). Finally, the performance of LSMs in forecasting streamflow under different schemes was analyzed to quantify the relative contribution of various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. Our results indicate that the most dominant source of errors during winter and fall seasons is the errors due to ECHAM4.5 precipitation forecasts, while temporal disaggregation scheme contributes to maximum errors during summer season.

Decomposition↗