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At least 307 records · Page 17

A Digital Twin Framework Utilizing Machine Learning for Robust Predictive Maintenance: Enhancing Tire Health Monitoring

We introduce a novel digital twin (DT) framework for the predictive maintenance of long-term physical systems. Using monitoring tire health as an application, we show how the DT framework can be used to enhance automotive safety and efficiency, and how the technical challenges can be overcome using a three-step approach. First, to manage the data complexity over a long operation span, we employ data reduction techniques to concisely represent physical tires using historical performance and usage data. Relying on these data, for fast real-time prediction, we train a transformer-based model offline on our concise dataset to predict future tire health over time, represented as remaining casing potential (RCP). Based on our architecture, our model quantifies both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, providing reliable confidence intervals around predicted RCP. Second, to incorporate real-time data, we update the predictive model in the DT framework, ensuring its accuracy throughout its lifespan with the aid of hybrid modeling and the use of the discrepancy function. Third, to assist decision-making in predictive maintenance, we implement a tire state decision algorithm, which strategically determines the optimal timing for tire replacement based on RCP forecasted by our transformer model. This approach ensures that our DT accurately predicts system health, continually refines its digital representation, and supports predictive maintenance decisions. Furthermore, our framework effectively embodies a physical system, leveraging big data and machine learning (ML) for predictive maintenance, model updates, and decision-making.

advanced computing infrastructure↗

Evaluation of U-net-based Image Segmentation Model to Digital Mammography

Detecting suspicious lesions in medical imaging is the important first step in computer-aided detection (CAD) systems. However, detecting abnormalities in breast tissue is difficult due to the lesion's varying size, shape, margin, and contrast with the background tissue. We focused on mass segmentation, a method that provides notable morphological features by outlining contours of masses. Accurate segmentation is crucial for correct diagnosis. Recent advancements in deep learning have improved object detection and segmentation, and these techniques are also being applied to medical imaging studies. We focused on U-net, which is a recently developed mass segmentation algorithm based on a fully convolutional network. The U-net architecture consists of (1) a contracting path to increase the resolution of the output and (2) a symmetric expanding path to better locate the region of interest. The performance of a U-net model was tested with 63 digital mammograms from INbreast, a publicly available database. We trained the model with images resized to 40x40 pixels and conducted 10-fold cross-validation to prevent overfitting. The model's performance with respect to breast density and the lesion's BI-RADS rating was also investigated. Dice coefficients (DC) were used as a performance measure to compare the predicted segmentation of the model with the ground truth. Logistic regression and an analysis of variance were performed to determine the significance of the DCs with regards to breast density and lesion behavior and to calculate the 95% confidence interval. The average DC was 0.80. The difference between DCs for BI-RADS 2 and 4c and for BI-RADS 2 and 5 were significant, suggesting that the model has more difficulty in segmenting benign lesions.

Cho, Priscilla↗

ATR-SEIRAS Method to Measure Interfacial pH during Electrocatalytic Nitrate Reduction on Cu

This study reports the accuracy and applications of an attenuated total reflectance–surface-enhanced infrared absorption spectroscopy (ATR–SEIRAS) technique to indirectly measure the interfacial pH of the electrolyte within 10 nm of the electrocatalyst surface. This technique can be used in situ to study aqueous electrochemical reactions with a calibration range from pH 1–13, time resolution down to 4 s, and an average 95% confidence interval of 14% that varies depending on the pH region (acidic, neutral, or basic). The method is applied here to electrochemical nitrate reduction at a copper cathode to demonstrate its capabilities, but is broadly applicable to any aqueous electrochemical reaction (such as hydrogen evolution, carbon dioxide reduction, or oxygen evolution) and the electrocatalyst may be any SEIRAS-active thin film (e.g., silver, gold, or copper). The time-resolved results show a dramatic increase in the interfacial pH from pH 2–7 in the first minute of operation during both constant current and pulsed current experiments where the bulk pH is unchanged. Attempts to control the pH polarization at the surface by altering the electrochemical operating conditions—lowering the current or increasing the pulse frequency—showed no significant change, demonstrating the challenge of controlling the interfacial pH.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nomogram for Predicting Postoperative Portal Venous Systemic Thrombosis in Patients with Cirrhosis Undergoing Splenectomy and Esophagogastric Devascularization

Objectives. The aim of the study is to develop a nomogram for predicting postoperative portal venous systemic thrombosis (PVST) in patients with cirrhosis undergoing splenectomy and esophagogastric devascularization. Methods. In total, 195 eligible patients were included. Demographic characteristics were collected, and the results of perioperative routine laboratory investigations and ultrasound examinations were also recorded. Blood cell morphological traits, including the red cell volume distribution width (RDW), mean platelet volume, and platelet distribution width, were identified. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were implemented for risk factor filtration, and an integrated nomogram was generated and then validated using the bootstrap method. Results. A color Doppler abdominal ultrasound examination on a postoperative day (POD) 7 (38.97%) revealed that 76 patients had PVST. The results of the multivariate logistic regression suggested that a higher RDW on POD3 (RDW3) (odds ratio (OR): 1.188, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.073–1.326), wider portal vein diameter (OR: 1.387, 95% CI: 1.203–1.642), history of variceal hemorrhage (OR: 3.407, 95% CI: 1.670–7.220), and longer spleen length (OR: 1.015, 95% CI: 1.001–1.029) were independent risk parameters for postoperative PVST. Moreover, the nomogram integrating these four parameters exhibited considerable capability in PVST forecasting. The nomogram’s receiver operating characteristic curve reached 0.83 and achieved a sensitivity and specificity of 0.711 and 0.848, respectively, at its cutoff. The nomogram’s calibration curve demonstrated that it was well calibrated. Conclusion. The nomogram exhibited excellent performance in PVST prediction and might assist surgeons in identifying vulnerable patients and administering timely prophylaxis.

Chen, Miao↗

Risk Factors and Trends for HPV-Associated Subsequent Malignant Neoplasms among Adolescent and Young Adult Cancer Survivors

Subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMN; new cancers that arise after an original diagnosis) contribute to premature mortality among adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer survivors. Because of the high population prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, we identify demographic and clinical risk factors for HPV-associated SMNs (HPV-SMN) among AYA cancer survivors in the SEER-9 registries diagnosed from 1976 to 2015. Outcomes included any HPV-SMN, oropharyngeal-SMN, and cervical-SMN. Follow-up started 2 months after their original diagnosis. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) compared risk between AYA survivors and general population. Age-period-cohort (APC) models examined trends over time. Fine and Gray's models identified therapy effects controlling for cancer and demographic confounders. Of 374,408 survivors, 1,369 had an HPV-SMN, occurring on average 5 years after first cancer. Compared with the general population, AYA survivors had 70% increased risk for any HPV-SMN [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.61–1.79] and 117% for oropharyngeal-SMN (95% CI, 2.00–2.35); cervical-SMN risk was generally lower in survivors (SIR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.76–0.95), but Hispanic AYA survivors had a 8.4 significant increase in cervical-SMN (SIR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.01–2.06). AYAs first diagnosed with Kaposi sarcoma, leukemia, Hodgkin, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma had increased HPV-SMN risks compared with the general population. Oropharyngeal-SMN incidence declined over time in APC models. Chemotherapy and radiation were associated with any HPV-SMN among survivors with first HPV-related cancers, but not associated among survivors whose first cancers were not HPV-related. HPV-SMN in AYA survivors are driven by oropharyngeal cancers despite temporal declines in oropharyngeal-SMN. Hispanic survivors are at risk for cervical-SMN relative to the general population. Encouraging HPV vaccination and cervical and oral cancer screenings may reduce HPV-SMN burden among AYA survivors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Quantification of Lanthanides in a Molten Salt Reactor Surrogate Off-Gas Stream Using Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy

To enable the deployment of molten salt reactor technology, the development of off-gas treatment systems and advanced monitoring tools capable of operating with high temperatures and radiation fields while delivering near real-time information is necessary. Here, we aim to fulfill this requirement and proposes laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for monitoring molten salt aerosol streams. A sheath gas measuring method was developed to protect optical elements from aerosol particles and to ensure a relatively constant aerosol stream for measurement. An aqueous system was studied to demonstrate the utility of LIBS for monitoring possible fission products in an aerosol stream: Gd, Nd, and Sm up to 2000 parts per million (ppm). A calibration model was built using partial least squares (PLS) regression with five, six, and nine latent variables for Gd, Nd, and Sm, respectively. This calibration model successfully estimated the concentrations of three test samples, which were validated with inductively charged plasma optical emission spectroscopy measurements at a 99.9% confidence interval. To enhance these models, a genetic algorithm was used to filter the spectra before entering the PLS model, thereby limiting the spectral features being regressed to those with greater correlations to concentration. This allowed for the number of latent variables used in the PLS models to be reduced to four, three, and three for Gd, Nd, and Sm, respectively. Finally, the genetic algorithm-filtered PLS models were used to predict the concentrations of the aerosol stream on a real-time dataset and resulted in a 73%, 18%, and 25% improvement in root mean squared error of prediction compared to the original PLS models developed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Monitoring Noble Gases (Xe and Kr) and Aerosols (Cs and Rb) in a Molten Salt Reactor Surrogate Off-Gas Stream Using Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS)

In this study with surrogate materials we show that laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) is a robust tool with promising capability toward monitoring gaseous (Xe and Kr) and aerosol (Cs and Rb) species in an off-gas stream from a molten salt reactor (MSR). MSRs will continually evolve fission products into the cover gas flowing across the reactor headspace. The cover gas entrains Xe and Kr gases, along with aerosol particles, before passing into an off-gas treatment system. Univariate models of Xe and Kr peaks showed a strong correlation to concentration indicated by their coefficients of determination of 0.983 and 0.997, respectively. Multivariate models were built for all four analytes using partial least squares regression coupled with preprocessing steps including normalization, trimming, and/or genetic algorithm derived filters. The models were evaluated by predicting the concentrations of the analytes in four validation samples, in which all calibration models were successfully validated at a confidence interval of 99.9%. Finally, pressure controllers were used to regulate the mass flow rate of Kr flowing into the measurement cell in sinusoidal and stepwise waveforms to test the real-time monitoring capabilities of the regression models. Both univariate and partial least squares Kr models were able to successfully quantify the gas concentration in the real-time evaluation. The root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) values for these real-time tests were calculated to be 0.051, 0.060, and 0.121 mol% demonstrating the measurement systems’ capability to perform online monitoring with acceptable accuracy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of the CISNET Colorectal Cancer Models

Purpose To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)'s SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets.Methods We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANNs) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets.Results The optimal ANN for SimCRC had 4 hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had 1 hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 h for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN.Conclusions Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, such as the CISNET CRC models. In this work, we present a step-by-step guide to constructing emulators for calibrating 3 realistic CRC individual-level models using a Bayesian approach.

artificial neural networks↗

How Time Inefficient and Uncertain are Paratransit Trips Compared to Car Trips

The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) stipulates that paratransit mobility be comparable to public transit. However, with just under 5% of the population relying on public transportation, transit is not a representative benchmark. To highlight this inequality, we compare trip times by paratransit to counterfactual car-based travel. Using 2.5 years of demand data from the Denver Regional Transportation District's Access-a-Ride service, we compare paratransit trip times to counterfactual car-based trips for the same origin-destination pairs, controlling for various trip characteristics. Compared to car travel, the findings indicate high variability and uncertainty associated with paratransit trip times. For the same origin-destination pairs, the mean paratransit trip time is almost twice that of the mean car travel time, with a standard deviation for paratransit trip time fourfold that of the standard deviation for car trip time. For perspective, traveling an average of 10 mi during the 7-8 a.m. morning peak can take about 16 min by car with almost no variability, while that same trip can take an average of 25 min by paratransit, with 5% of trips being outside the 95% confidence interval and thus unpredictable. Paratransit trip time inefficiency tends to be particularly worse for females; older adults; those making trips between 9 and 11 a.m.; cash-paying customers; those making shorter trips; and those traveling during inclement weather, including cold temperatures. These findings suggest a need to re-assess using public transit as a benchmark for paratransit supply as regulated by the ADA.

accessible transportation and mobility↗

Contraceptive Sabotage and Contraceptive Use at the Time of Pregnancy: An Analysis of People with a Recent Live Birth in the United States

Contraceptive sabotage and other forms of intimate partner violence (IPV) can interfere with contraceptive use. We used 2012 to 2015 Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System data from 8,981 people residing in five states who reported that when they became pregnant, they were not trying to get pregnant. We assessed the relationships between ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage and physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (both by the current partner) and contraceptive use at the time of pregnancy using multivariable logistic regression. We also assessed the joint associations between physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy and ever experienced contraceptive sabotage with contraceptive use at the time of pregnancy. Few people ever experienced contraceptive sabotage (1.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4, 2.3) or physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (2.8%; 95% CI: 2.3, 3.3). In models adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, marital status, education, and state of residence, ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage was associated with contraceptive use at the time of pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.73; 95% CI: 1.06, 2.82), but not with physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (aOR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.46, 1.02). When examining the joint association, compared to not ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage or physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy, ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage was significantly related to contraceptive use at the time of pregnancy (aOR: 1.72; 95% CI: 1.00, 2.95). However, it was not associated with experiencing physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (aOR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.45, 1.04) or with experiencing both contraceptive sabotage and physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (aOR: 1.21; 95% CI: 0.42, 3.50), compared to not ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage or physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy. Our study highlights that current partner contraceptive sabotage may motivate those not trying to get pregnant to use contraception; however, all people in our sample still experienced a pregnancy.

Huber-Krum, Sarah↗

Psychological Distress and Alzheimer’s Disease Mortality in the United States: Results from the 1997–2014 National Health Interview Survey-National Death Index Record Linkage Study

Objective: This study examines the association between psychological distress and Alzheimer’s disease mortality among US adults aged ≥45. Methods: We analyzed the Kessler 6-item psychological distress scale as a risk factor for Alzheimer’s mortality using the pooled 1997–2014 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS)- National Death Index (NDI) database ( N = 265,089). Cox regression was used to model mortality as a function of psychological distress and sociodemographic and behavioral covariates. Results: The Alzheimer’s mortality risk was 97% higher (HR = 1.97; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.37, 2.84) in adults with serious psychological distress compared with those without psychological distress, controlling for sociodemographic covariates. The relative mortality risk remained statistically significant (HR = 1.49; 95% CI = 1.04, 2.13) after additional adjustment for smoking, alcohol consumption, health status, activity limitation, and body mass index. Discussion: US adults had significantly higher risks of Alzheimer’s disease mortality at higher psychological distress levels. These findings underscore the significance of addressing psychological well-being as a strategy for reducing Alzheimer’s disease mortality.

Singh, Gopal K.↗

Vegetable intake and the risk of bladder cancer in the BLadder Cancer Epidemiology and Nutritional Determinants (BLEND) international study

Although a potential inverse association between vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk has been reported, epidemiological evidence is inconsistent. This research aimed to elucidate the association between vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk by conducting a pooled analysis of data from prospective cohort studies. Vegetable intake in relation to bladder cancer risk was examined by pooling individual-level data from 13 cohort studies, comprising 3203 cases among a total of 555,685 participants. Pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models stratified by cohort for intakes of total vegetable, vegetable subtypes (i.e. non-starchy, starchy, green leafy and cruciferous vegetables) and individual vegetable types. In addition, a diet diversity score was used to assess the association of the varied types of vegetable intake on bladder cancer risk. The association between vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk differed by sex ( P -interaction = 0.011) and smoking status ( P -interaction = 0.038); therefore, analyses were stratified by sex and smoking status. With adjustment of age, sex, smoking, energy intake, ethnicity and other potential dietary factors, we found that higher intake of total and non-starchy vegetables were inversely associated with the risk of bladder cancer among women (comparing the highest with lowest intake tertile: HR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.64–0.98, P = 0.037 for trend, HR per 1 SD increment = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.81–0.99; HR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.63–0.97, P = 0.034 for trend, HR per 1 SD increment = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.79–0.98, respectively). However, no evidence of association was observed among men, and the intake of vegetable was not found to be associated with bladder cancer when stratified by smoking status. Moreover, we found no evidence of association for diet diversity with bladder cancer risk. Higher intakes of total and non-starchy vegetable are associated with reduced risk of bladder cancer for women. Further studies are needed to clarify whether these results reflect causal processes and potential underlying mechanisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Prescribed fires, smoke exposure, and hospital utilization among heart failure patients

Abstract Background Prescribed fires often have ecological benefits, but their environmental health risks have been infrequently studied. We investigated associations between residing near a prescribed fire, wildfire smoke exposure, and heart failure (HF) patients’ hospital utilization. Methods We used electronic health records from January 2014 to December 2016 in a North Carolina hospital-based cohort to determine HF diagnoses, primary residence, and hospital utilization. Using a cross-sectional study design, we associated the prescribed fire occurrences within 1, 2, and 5 km of the patients’ primary residence with the number of hospital visits and 7- and 30-day readmissions. To compare prescribed fire associations with those observed for wildfire smoke, we also associated zip code-level smoke density data designed to capture wildfire smoke emissions with hospital utilization amongst HF patients. Quasi-Poisson regression models were used for the number of hospital visits, while zero-inflated Poisson regression models were used for readmissions. All models were adjusted for age, sex, race, and neighborhood socioeconomic status and included an offset for follow-up time. The results are the percent change and the 95% confidence interval (CI). Results Associations between prescribed fire occurrences and hospital visits were generally null, with the few associations observed being with prescribed fires within 5 and 2 km of the primary residence in the negative direction but not the more restrictive 1 km radius. However, exposure to medium or heavy smoke (primarily from wildfires) at the zip code level was associated with both 7-day (8.5% increase; 95% CI = 1.5%, 16.0%) and 30-day readmissions (5.4%; 95% CI = 2.3%, 8.5%), and to a lesser degree, hospital visits (1.5%; 95% CI: 0.0%, 3.0%) matching previous studies. Conclusions Area-level smoke exposure driven by wildfires is positively associated with hospital utilization but not proximity to prescribed fires.

Raab, Henry↗

Organochlorine pesticides and risk of papillary thyroid cancer in U.S. military personnel: a nested case-control study

Background: The effects of organochlorine pesticide (OCP) exposure on the development of human papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) are not well understood. A nested case-control study was conducted with data from the U.S. Department of Defense Serum Repository (DoDSR) cohort between 2000 and 2013 to assess associations of individual OCPs serum concentrations with PTC risk. Methods: This study included 742 histologically confirmed PTC cases (341 females, 401 males) and 742 individually-matched controls with pre-diagnostic serum samples selected from the DoDSR. Associations between categories of lipid-corrected serum concentrations of seven OCPs and PTC risk were evaluated for classical PTC and follicular PTC using conditional logistic regression, adjusted for body mass index category and military branch to compute odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Effect modification by sex, birth cohort, and race was examined. Results: There was no evidence of associations between most of the OCPs and PTC, overall or stratified by histological subtype. Overall, there was no evidence of an association between hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and PTC, but stratified by histological subtype HCB was associated with significantly increased risk of classical PTC (third tertile above the limit of detection (LOD) vs. <LOD, OR = 1.61, 95% CI, 1.09, 2.38; p for trend = 0.05) and significantly decreased risk of follicular variant PTC (third tertile above the limit of detection (LOD) vs. <LOD, OR = 0.38, 95% CI, 0.16, 0.91; p for trend = 0.04). Further stratified by sex, risk of classical PTC was higher for females (third tertile above LOD vs. <LOD, OR = 2.23, 95% CI: 1.23, 4.06; p-trend = 0.02) than for males (OR = 1.22, 95%CI: 0.72–2.08; p-trend = 0.56), though the test for interaction by sex was not statistically significant (p-interaction = 0.30). Similarly, β-hexachlorocyclohexane (β-HCCH) was associated with a higher risk for classical PTC for women with concentrations ≥LOD versus <LOD (OR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.07, 2.89), while the effects were null for men. There were no consistent trends when stratified by race or birth year. Conclusions: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has classified HCB and other OCPs we studied here as probable human carcinogens. Our findings of increased risks for classical PTC associated with increased concentrations of HCB and β-HCCH, which were stronger among females, should be replicated in future studies of other populations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Risk of longer-term endocrine and metabolic conditions in the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Coast Guard cohort study – five years of follow-up

Abstract Introduction Long-term endocrine and metabolic health risks associated with oil spill cleanup exposures are largely unknown, despite the endocrine-disrupting potential of crude oil and oil dispersant constituents. We aimed to investigate risks of longer-term endocrine and metabolic conditions among U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) responders to the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill. Methods Our study population included all active duty DWH Oil Spill Coast Guard Cohort members ( N = 45,224). Self-reported spill exposures were ascertained from post-deployment surveys. Incident endocrine and metabolic outcomes were defined using International Classification of Diseases (9th Revision) diagnostic codes from military health encounter records up to 5.5 years post-DWH. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for various incident endocrine and metabolic diagnoses (2010–2015, and separately during 2010–2012 and 2013–2015). Results The mean baseline age was 30 years (~ 77% white, ~ 86% male). Compared to non-responders ( n = 39,260), spill responders ( n = 5,964) had elevated risks for simple and unspecified goiter (aHR = 2.09, 95% CI: 1.29–3.38) and disorders of lipid metabolism (aHR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.00–1.18), including its subcategory other and unspecified hyperlipidemia (aHR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.01–1.21). The dysmetabolic syndrome X risk was elevated only during 2010–2012 (aHR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.22–3.51). Responders reporting ever ( n = 1,068) vs. never ( n = 2,424) crude oil inhalation exposure had elevated risks for disorders of lipid metabolism (aHR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.00–1.53), including its subcategory pure hypercholesterolemia (aHR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.08–2.72), the overweight, obesity and other hyperalimentation subcategory of unspecified obesity (aHR = 1.52, 95% CI: 1.09–2.13), and abnormal weight gain (aHR = 2.60, 95% CI: 1.04–6.55). Risk estimates for endocrine/metabolic conditions were generally stronger among responders reporting exposure to both crude oil and dispersants (vs. neither) than among responders reporting only oil exposure (vs. neither). Conclusion In this large cohort of active duty USCG responders to the DWH disaster, oil spill cleanup exposures were associated with elevated risks for longer-term endocrine and metabolic conditions.

Denic-Roberts, Hristina↗

Differential patterns of reproductive and lifestyle risk factors for breast cancer according to birth cohorts among women in China, Japan and Korea

Background: The birth cohort effect has been suggested to influence the rate of breast cancer incidence and the trends of associated reproductive and lifestyle factors. We conducted a cohort study to determine whether a differential pattern of associations exists between certain factors and breast cancer risk based on birth cohorts. Methods: This was a cohort study using pooled data from 12 cohort studies. We analysed associations between reproductive (menarche age, menopause age, parity and age at first delivery) and lifestyle (smoking and alcohol consumption) factors and breast cancer risk. We obtained hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis on the 1920s, 1930s, 1940s and 1950s birth cohorts. Results: Parity was found to lower the risk of breast cancer in the older but not in the younger birth cohort, whereas lifestyle factors showed associations with breast cancer risk only among the participants born in the 1950s. In the younger birth cohort group, the effect size was lower for parous women compared to the other cohort groups (HR [95% CI] 0.86 [0.66–1.13] compared to 0.60 [0.49–0.73], 0.46 [0.38–0.56] and 0.62 [0.51–0.77]). Meanwhile, a higher effect size was found for smoking (1.45 [1.14–1.84] compared to 1.25 [0.99–1.58], 1.06 [0.85–1.32] and 0.86 [0.69–1.08]) and alcohol consumption (1.22 [1.01–1.48] compared to 1.10 [0.90–1.33], 1.15 [0.96–1.38], and 1.07 [0.91–1.26]). Conclusion: We observed different associations of parity, smoking and alcohol consumption with breast cancer risk across various birth cohorts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Reliability, stability during long-term storage, and intra-individual variation of circulating levels of osteopontin, osteoprotegerin, vascular endothelial growth factor-A, and interleukin-17A

Background: Studies in many populations have reported associations between circulating cytokine levels and various physiological or pathological conditions. However, the reliability of cytokine measurements in population studies, which measure cytokines in multiple assays over a prolonged period, has not been adequately examined; nor has stability during sample storage or intra-individual variation been assessed. Methods: We assessed (1) analytical reliability in short- and long-term repeated measurements; (2) stability and analytical reliability during long-term sample storage, and (3) variability within individuals over seasons, of four cytokines—osteopontin (OPN), osteoprotegerin (OPG), vascular endothelial growth factor-A (VEGF-A), and interleukin-17A (IL-17A). Measurements in plasma or serum samples were made with commercial kits according to standard procedures. Estimation was performed by fitting a random or mixed effects linear model on the log scale. Results: In repeated assays over a short period, OPN, OPG, and VEGF-A had acceptable reliability, with intra- and inter-assay coefficients of variation (CV) less than 0.11. Reliability of IL-17A was poor, with inter- and intra-assay CV 0.85 and 0.43, respectively. During long-term storage, OPG significantly decayed (-33% per year; 95% confidence interval [-54, -3.7]), but not OPN or VEGF-A (-0.3% or -6.3% per year, respectively). Intra- and inter-assay CV over a long period were comparable to that in a short period except for a slight increase in inter-assay CV of VEGF-A. Within-individual variation was small for OPN and VEGF-A, with intra-class correlations (ICC) 0.68 and 0.83, respectively, but large for OPG (ICC 0.11). Conclusions: We conclude that OPN and VEGF-A can be reliably measured in a large population, that IL-17A is suitable only for small experiments, and that OPG should be assessed with caution due to degradation during storage and intra-individual variation. The overall results of our study illustrate the need for validation under relevant conditions when measuring circulating cytokines in population studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Chapter 13: All-Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing Aircraft (eVTOL) for Sustainable Urban Travel

Increasing urbanization, ground congestion, and greenhouse gas emissions have spurred aircraft pioneers to capitalize on advancements in battery technology, electric motors, software, and other advances to develop all-electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft intended to save travelers time within densely populated urban regions. This study served as an example for conducting a life-cycle analysis (LCA) of an eVTOL aircraft, analyzing its manufacturing process, its in-life operation as a passenger transportation service between urban locations, and (in part) end-of-life treatment. This case study aims to provide guidance on how to accurately conduct eVTOL LCA, particularly on how to define the problem, how to obtain the right information from engineers inside and outside their own organizations, and what areas to focus on. As LCA results are only as accurate as the assumptions that were made, a more rigorous LCA that includes sensitivity analysis and uncertainty characterization can help further understand the limitations of those assumptions. New technologies such as blockchain may also play an important role in LCA, including the life-cycle inventory and improving confidence intervals. Completing a credible LCA is central to supporting the argument in favor of introducing the new technology. Completing such a study will allow companies to demonstrate to relevant stakeholders the likely impact of their aircraft on the environment by quantifying the operational climate footprint of the aircraft and the manufacturing process used to build it. To this end, this case study also provides examples of how to report and present LCA results, optimizing for communications to non-LCA experts. The LCA can also assist in identifying opportunities to improve the environmental performance at various life-cycle stages, informing decision makers as products and manufacturing processes evolve or are redesigned. Given the nascency of both eVTOL aircraft manufacturing and operations, it is strongly recommended that LCA analysts treat reports on eVTOL aircraft as works-in-progress. As new information is found, design changes are made, and the aircraft or operation gains maturity, it is inevitable that some amendments will need to be made to the LCA. It is suggested that a complete overhaul of the LCA be made every 18-24 months throughout the R&D, design, and operational scale-up phases of the project.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗