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At least 307 records · Page 17

HE-LHC: The High-Energy Large Hadron Collider

Particle physics has arrived at an important moment of its history. The discovery of the Higgs boson, with a mass of 125 GeV, completes the matrix of particles and interactions that has constituted the “Standard Model” for several decades. This model is a consistent and predictive theory, which has so far proven successful at describing all phenomena accessible to collider experiments. However, several experimental facts do require the extension of the Standard Model and explanations are needed for observations such as the abundance of matter over antimatter, the striking evidence for dark matter and the non-zero neutrino masses. Theoretical issues such as the hierarchy problem, and, more in general, the dynamical origin of the Higgs mechanism, do likewise point to the existence of physics beyond the Standard Model. This report contains the description of a novel research infrastructure based on a high-energy hadron collider, which extends the current energy frontier by almost a factor 2 (27 TeV collision energy) and an integrated luminosity of at least a factor of 3 larger than the HL-LHC. In connection with four experimental detectors, this infrastructure will deepen our understanding of the origin of the electroweak symmetry breaking, allow a first measurement of the Higgs self-coupling, double the HL-LHC discovery reach and allow for in-depth studies of new physics signals arising from future LHC measurements. This collider would directly produce particles at significant rates at scales up to 12 TeV. The project re-uses the existing LHC underground infrastructure and large parts of the injector chain at CERN. This particle collider would succeed the HL-LHC directly and serve the world-wide physics community for about 20 years beyond the middle of the 21st century. The European Strategy for Particle Physics (ESPP) update 2013 stated “To stay at the forefront of particle physics, Europe needs to be in a position to propose an ambitious post-LHC accelerator project at CERN by the time of the next Strategy update”. The FCC study has implemented the ESPP recommendation by developing a vision for an “accelerator project in a global context”. This document describes the detailed design and preparation of a construction project for a post-LHC circular high-energy hadron collider “in collaboration with national institutes, laboratories and universities worldwide”, and enhanced by a strong participation of industrial partners. Now, a coordinated preparation effort can be based on a core of an ever-growing consortium of already more than 135 institutes worldwide. The technology for constructing a High-Energy LHC can be brought to the technology readiness level required for construction within the coming ten years through a committed and focused R&D programme. The concept comprises a power-saving, low-temperature superconducting magnet system based on an evolution of the Nb3Sn technology pioneered at the HL-LHC, an energy-efficient cryogenic refrigeration infrastructure based on a neon-helium (Nelium) light gas mixture, a high-reliability and low loss cryogen distribution infrastructure based on Invar, high-power distributed beam transfer using superconducting elements and local magnet energy recovery and re-use technologies that are already gradually introduced at other CERN accelerators. Re-use of the LHC underground civil infrastructure worth about 500 million CHF at the time of its construction, extension of the surface sites and use of the existing injector chain that also serve for a concurrently running physics programme are levers to come to a sustainable research infrastructure at the energy frontier. Strategic R&D for HE-LHC aims at minimising construction cost and energy consumption, while maximising the socio-economic impact. It needs to mitigate technology-related risks and ensure that industry can benefit from an acceptable economic utility. Concerning the implementation, a preparatory phase of about eight years is both necessary and adequate to establish the project governance and organisation structures, to build the international machine and experiment consortia, to develop a territorial implantation plan considering the constraints emerging from using the existing infrastructure and the host states’ requirements, optimising the use of land, resources and preparing the construction project. Such a large-scale, international fundamental research infrastructure, tightly involving industrial partners and providing training at all education levels, will be a strong motor of economic and societal development in all participating nations. The FCC study has implemented a set of actions towards a coherent vision for the world-wide high-energy and particle physics community, providing a collaborative framework for topically complementary and geographically well-balanced contributions. This conceptual design report lays the foundation for a subsequent infrastructure preparatory and technical design phase.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Interfacial Pressure Improves Calendar Aging of Lithium Metal Anodes

Lithium metal is a very attractive anode material because its theoretical specific capacity is approximately 10 times higher than conventional graphite anodes. Despite great promise, Li anodes suffer from capacity fade due to instabilities with the electrolyte as well as stranding of active Li. We have previously shown that applied interfacial pressure improves Li anode cycling because the pressure reduces the propensity for Li isolation and enables easier reconnection. Many researchers have also shown that calendar aging can lead to Li capacity loss and this has been attributed to either electrolyte decomposition with concurrent Li corrosion or to the formation of stranded Li. Our prior research focused on calendar aging during cycling suggests the mechanism for calendar aging is largely related to stranding of Li during rest and reconnection of the stranded Li upon further cycling, evidenced by similar average Coulombic efficiencies and Li loss in cells with and without rest. Because our calendar aging studies suggest Li stranding as a major cause of Coulombic efficiency drops and our Li cycling studies suggest this can be mitigated partially through applied interfacial pressure, we hypothesized that applied pressure would improve calendar aging by reducing stranded Li and enabling reconnection. We systematically varied applied pressure (0-1000 kPa) on Li metal anodes during cycling tests with and without intermittent calendar aging periods. Though the Coulombic efficiency decreases during aging periods, the lost capacity is recovered during subsequent cycles, as shown though average Coulombic efficiency and cumulative Li capacity loss analysis. We find that application of pressure partially mitigates calendar aging, in accordance with our hypothesis that calendar aging is caused by Li standing and can be mitigated to some degree with interfacial pressure. This is further supported by our results showing that the average Coulombic efficiency and cumulative Li capacity losses are similar over 50 cycles for cells that were continuously cycled and cells with periodic calendar aging periods. This result indicates that the losses during aging are reversible, which is consistent with Li stranding and reconnection. We show that pressure is one mitigation technique that helps reduce Li calendar aging in this study, but our finding that calendar aging is primarily governed by the stranding and reconnection of dead Li has wider implications. This research suggests that other mitigations which have been shown to prevent dead Li formation or encourage reconnection during cycling would also likely be successful for the purpose of improving calendar aging. The authors were supported by a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program. This work was performed, in part, at the Center for Integrated Nanotechnologies, an Office of Science User Facility operated for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC (NTESS), a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA) under contract DE-NA0003525. This written work is authored by an employee of NTESS. The employee, not NTESS, owns the right, title and interest in and to the written work and is responsible for its contents. This work was authored in part by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Any subjective views or opinions that might be expressed in the written work do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Government.

applied pressure↗

Model-based Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning for Improved Physical Security Design: A Prototype

Prior work in FY24 developed an adversarial AI agent aid in path analysis of physical protection systems. This agent, trained using a model-based reinforcement learning algorithm, was able to successfully learn the most vulnerable path in facilities. It was able to extend the current state of practice for physical protection design by exhibiting dynamic behavior based on current environmental conditions. Whereas PathTrace largely performs a static, graph-based analysis, the AI agent was able to make decisions based on relative position in the facility, current conditions (was the adversarial agnet discovered?), and proximity to secondary targets. The agent demonstrated some novel capabilities, but had limitations that need to be resolved before it can be used for production purposes. For example, the adversarial agent generalizes poorly and takes a relatively long time to train. Nonetheless, there is still considerable promise for developing the adversarial agent further in order to explore even richer, more dynamic behaviors (e.g., adversary motivations, environmental debris, and more). This work considers a complementary idea; development of a planning agent. The planning agent is envisioned as an auto-complete-like tool that can help accelerate security system design by human experts. The agent would respect existing barriers and sensors placed by a human expert while offering cost-effective suggestions (i.e., implicitly balancing effectiveness with cost) to improve the design. The goal is for this agent to be part of an expert’s toolbox, not to totally upend the current state-of-practice, or to displace human experts. The ultimate goal would be concurrent training of both the adversarial and planning agent together, to learn entirely through self-play. This would represent an entirely new way of performing system deign. We selected a hierarchical, model-based reinforcement learning algorithm to serve as the planning agent. This is an extension of concepts used in the prior FY24 adversarial agent work. There, we had a single agent acting an environment. Here, we have two different sub-agents (policies), working together, to form a complete agent. There is a manager policy, which can select abstract goals on slower time scales, and a worker, which performs primitive actions to reach goals selected by the manager. It is worth noting that this class of algorithm is challenging to work with. From our understanding, our work is one of the first successful uses of model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) in nuclear energy1 , and likely the first hierarchical model-based reinforcement learning application in nuclear energy. Further, this work is one of the first known attempts to apply AI to perform a design tasks in nuclear energy. Consequently, there were significant implementation challenges and the bulk of the work was focused on successful implementation and algorithm design. The results presented here are very low technology readiness level as a consequence of the lack of related literature, but still represent a significant step forward in the pursuit of applied AI for design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Hydraulic Capacity of an ADA Compliant Street Drain Grate

Resurfacing of urban roads with concurrent repairs and replacement of sections of curb and sidewalk may require pedestrian ramps that are compliant with the American Disabilities Act (ADA), and when street drains are in close proximity to the walkway, ADA compliant street grates may also be required. The Minnesota Department of Transportation ADA Operations Unit identified a foundry with an available grate that meets ADA requirements. Argonne National Laboratory’s Transportation Research and Analysis Computing Center used full scale three dimensional computational fluid dynamics to determine the performance of the ADA compliant grate and compared it to that of a standard vane grate. Analysis of a parametric set of cases was carried out, including variation in longitudinal, gutter, and cross street slopes and the water spread from the curb. The performance of the grates was characterized by the fraction of the total volume flow approaching the grate from the upstream that was captured by the grate and diverted into the catch basin. The fraction of the total flow entering over the grate from the side and the fraction of flow directly over a grate diverted into the catch basin were also quantities of interest that aid in understanding the differences in performance of the grates. The ADA compliant grate performance lagged that of the vane grate, increasingly so as upstream Reynolds number increased. The major factor leading to the performance difference between the two grates was the fraction of flow directly over the grates that is captured by the grates.

3D CFD↗

Assessing concurrent effects of climate change on hydropower supply, electricity demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Basin of China

Hydropower importantly provides flexible low-carbon electricity, however, climate change will affect the hydropower system through altering hydrologic regimes while also affecting electricity demands for heating and cooling that hydropower resources serve. This study assesses the effect of climate change on hydropower and electricity demand in the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) in China on the regional net electric load and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is accomplished by using climate projections from five global climate models (GCMs) to simultaneously force (1) a physically-based hydrological model and a statistically-based hydropower model to estimate the future generating capacity of 21 large hydropower plants in the UYRB and (2) an empirical electricity demand model accounting for socioeconomic and climatic factors. Under climate change, the projected hydropower generation in the UYRB tends to increase in the 21st century but is far less than the increase in electricity demand, increasing the gap between demand and supply. Future increases in overall electricity demand are driven by GDP growth, but climate change will alter the distribution of the seasonal electricity demand. Climate warming decreases electricity demand for heating in winter and increases electricity demand for cooling in summer, but ultimately increases demand. Meanwhile, there is an increasing mismatch between electricity demand and hydropower supply associated with inter- and intra-annual variations, owing to the temporal climate change and increase in compound climate extremes (droughts and heatwaves). Finally, meeting the gap between supply and demand due to climate change is estimated to contribute 79.0–184.6 and 50.6–316.2 MMT CO 2e /yr of additional GHG emissions by the mid and end of 21st century, respectively.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Combined near- and far-field high-energy diffraction microscopy dataset for Ti-7Al tensile specimen elastically loaded in situ

High-energy diffraction microscopy (HEDM) constitutes a suite of combined X-ray characterization methods, which hold the unique advantage of illuminating the microstructure and micromechanical state of a material during concurrent in situ mechanical deformation. The data generated from HEDM experiments provides a heretofore unrealized opportunity to validate meso-scale modeling techniques, such as crystal plasticity finite element modeling (CPFEM), by explicitly testing the accuracy of these models at the length scales where the models predict their response. Combining HEDM methods with in situ loading under known and controlled boundary conditions represents a significant challenge, inspiring the recent development of a new high-precision rotation and axial motion system for simultaneously rotating and axially loading a sample. In this paper, we describe the initial HEDM dataset collected using this hardware on an alpha-titanium alloy (Ti-7Al) under in situ tensile deformation at the Advanced Photon Source, Argonne National Laboratory. We present both near-field HEDM data that maps out the grain morphology and intragranular crystallographic orientations and far-field HEDM data that provides the grain centroid, grain average crystallographic orientation, and grain average elastic strain tensor for each grain. Finally, we provide a finite element mesh that can be utilized to simulate deformation in the volume of this Ti-7Al specimen.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

5G Enabled Energy Innovation: Advanced Wireless Networks for Science (Workshop Report)

Rapidly expanding, new telecommunications infrastructure based on 5G technologies will disrupt and transform how we design, build, operate, and optimize scientific infrastructure and the experiments and services enabled by that infrastructure, from continental-scale sensor networks to centralized scientific user facilities, from intelligent Internet of Things devices to supercomputers. Concurrently, 5G will introduce, or exacerbate, challenges related to protecting infrastructure and associated scientific data as well as to fully leveraging opportunities related to expanded infrastructure scale and complexity. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science operates scientific infrastructure, supporting some of the nation’s most advanced intellectual discoveries, spanning the country and including 30 world-class user facilities from supercomputers to accelerators. Along with field experiments and remote observatories, every aspect of DOE’s scientific enterprise will be affected by 5G, which amounts to a complete renovation of the underpinnings of the nation’s information infrastructure. In this report we explore the scientific opportunities and new research challenges associated with 5G, ranging from scalability to heterogeneity to cybersecurity. The rapid commercial deployment of 5G opens the opportunity to rethink and reinvent DOE’s scientific infrastructure and experimentation, from intelligent sensor networks at unprecedented scales to a digital continuum of cyberinfrastructure spanning low-power sensors, high-performance computing embedded within and at the edge of the network, and DOE’s large-scale user instrument and computing facilities. New programming paradigms, workflow and data frameworks, and AI-based system design, operation, and autonomous adaptation and optimization will be necessary in order to exploit these new opportunities. Field deployments and centralized scientific instruments can also be revolutionized, moving (without traditional performance penalties) from wired to wireless connectivity for data and control systems, improving flexibility, and opening new sensing modalities, including the use of the 5G electromagnetic spectrum itself as an environmental probe. For DOE science, in contrast to commercial 5G applications and settings, devices will be deployed in extreme environments such as cryogenically cooled instrument control systems and in remote settings with harsh conditions, requiring the design of new materials for RF communication and edge processing to operate in these regimes. Concurrently, 5G infrastructure comprises both hardware and sophisticated software systems - currently closed and proprietary. The cybersecurity challenges to 5G-empowered reinvention mirror the complexity and variety of new 5G features, from virtualization to private network slices to ubiquitous access. Research is also needed in order to accelerate the development of secure and open 5G software infrastructure, reducing reliance on hardware and software produced outside the United States and providing the transparency and rigorous evaluation and testing afforded through open software. Twelve broad research thrusts are laid out in four chapters, with a companion fifth chapter (and three additional research thrusts) underscoring the needs and opportunities for an aggressive testbed program co-designed by networking experts and scientists involved in the 15 research thrusts. The urgency of undertaking this research is fueled by a global, accelerating deployment of new telecommunications infrastructure that is designed for entertainment and commercial applications - barely scratching the surface of what 5G can do to extend U.S. leadership in scientific discovery.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Self-consistent clustering analysis: an efficient multiscale scheme for inelastic heterogeneous materials

A predictive computational theory is shown for modeling complex, hierarchical materials ranging from metal alloys to polymer nanocomposites. The theory can capture complex mechanisms such as plasticity and failure that span across multiple length scales. This general multiscale material modeling theory relies on sound principles of mathematics and mechanics, and a cutting-edge reduced order modeling method named self-consistent clustering analysis (SCA) [Zeliang Liu, M.A. Bessa, Wing Kam Liu, “Self-consistent clustering analysis: An efficient multi-scale scheme for inelastic heterogeneous materials,” Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Engrg. 306 (2016) 319–341]. SCA reduces by several orders of magnitude the computational cost of micromechanical and concurrent multiscale simulations, while retaining the microstructure information. This remarkable increase in efficiency is achieved with a data-driven clustering method. Computationally expensive operations are performed in the so-called offline stage, where degrees of freedom (DOFs) are agglomerated into clusters. The interaction tensor of these clusters is computed. In the online or predictive stage, the Lippmann-Schwinger integral equation is solved cluster-wise using a self-consistent scheme to ensure solution accuracy and avoid path dependence. To construct a concurrent multiscale model, this scheme is applied at each material point in a macroscale structure, replacing a conventional constitutive model with the average response computed from the microscale model using just the SCA online stage. A regularized damage theory is incorporated in the microscale that avoids the mesh and RVE size dependence that commonly plagues microscale damage calculations. The SCA method is illustrated with two cases: a carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) structure with the concurrent multiscale model and an application to fatigue prediction for additively manufactured metals. For the CFRP problem, a speed up estimated to be about 43,000 is achieved by using the SCA method, as opposed to FE2, enabling the solution of an otherwise computationally intractable problem. The second example uses a crystal plasticity constitutive law and computes the fatigue potency of extrinsic microscale features such as voids. This shows that local stress and strain are capture sufficiently well by SCA. This model has been incorporated in a process-structure-properties prediction framework for process design in additive manufacturing.

Liu, Z.↗

Initiation of Experimental Campaign to Address Knowledge Gaps Related to Simultaneous Thermal and Gamma Radiation Aging of Crosslinked Polyethylene and Ethylene-Propylene Rubber Cable Insulation

Key cable knowledge gaps identified in the Expanded Materials Degradation Assessment (EMDA) volume on Aging of Cables and Cable Systems (Volume 5) specifically relate to the combined effects of thermal and gamma irradiation stresses on cable insulation materials. These include dose rate effects (DRE), inverse temperature effects (ITE), and synergistic effects (S/E). Extent of radiation-induced polymer degradation is proportional to absorbed dose, but DRE describe the phenomenon in which degree of damage is based not only on total dose, but also on the dose rate experienced during dose accumulation. This can be particularly complicated in the presence of thermal stress as a material spends more time at elevated temperature to receive the same total dose at a lower dose rate. Rates of cable polymer degradation generally increases with temperature, but ITE describes the situation in which polymer material damage under irradiation is greater at lower temperatures than at higher temperatures. Finally, S/E describe the concept that the mechanism of polymer material degradation when exposed to thermal aging and radiation aging in succession may be different than when exposed to thermal and radiation aging concurrently. The experimental campaign at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) described in this report seeks to address these knowledge gaps through investigation of the degradation of relevant cable insulation materials at select conditions using controlled temperatures, dose rates and total doses. Insulation materials considered were chosen to represent those most commonly found in U.S. nuclear power plants in terms of manufacturers and polymer systems. They include products from manufactures including The Rockbestos Company; The Okonite Company; Boston Insulated Wire & Cable Company; Kerite Company; Anaconda Company; Brand Rex, Inc.; and Samuel Moore Company. The products include the most ubiquitous cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) and ethylene-propylene rubber (EPR) classes of insulation polymer. Circulating air ovens with remote temperature sensing and control are positioned within the gamma irradiation beam to enable controlled temperatures during radiation exposure. Dose rates are controlled through repeatable positioning of specimens at determined distances from the Cobalt-60 gamma source. Total absorbed doses for comparing temperature and dose rate effects are controlled by removing samples from exposure at pre-determined time points. The effects of gamma beam geometry, source decay and attenuation due to samples, ovens and racks are determined and controlled for using local point dosimetry. The temperature, dose and dose rates selected for the experimental campaign described in this report were determined following input from a range of stakeholders and intended to balance the constraints of the experimental capabilities, available material, project timeline and project funding with the value of the effort in narrowing EMDA-identified knowledge gaps. Results from this campaign are anticipated to reduce uncertainty in the understanding of cable material degradation behavior in nuclear power plant environments and thereby support cable aging management in long term operation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The Energy Transition: Advanced Nuclear Needed but Address Climate Vulnerabilities Now

The term “Energy Transition” is an attempt to capture an elaborate set of activities related to the modernization and decarbonization of energy grids. Performed concurrently and often in an ad hoc manner across local, state, regional and national boundaries, it is bringing chaos to what should arguably be one of the most conservatively managed of all critical infrastructure sectors. What’s more, with climate change producing an increasing tempo of extreme events, confidence in the intended resilient and redundant structure of the electric grids is likely to ebb. Even without these climate induced stressors, the nation’s electric grid was built for an earlier century. In addition to a drive towards greater efficiency via digitization and a continuing price decline in distributed energy resources (DERs), one could argue that climate change concerns are the primary driver of the energy transition. Non-CO2 emitting generation sources like wind and solar have become an important part of the overall generation fleet, albeit ones that cannot be counted upon to provide dispatchable power. Current projections indicate deployment of even larger percentages of DERs in coming years. Until far better storage capabilities arrive, the variability of wind and solar, inconsistent performance of traditional thermal generation plants, and energy delivery failures associated with natural gas pipelines will reinforce mounting reliability concerns. This pertains to both electric transmission and distribution. The recent shuttering of nuclear power plants in Germany, Japan, the US and elsewhere are also putting more downward pressure on dispatchable generation. Russia’s attack on Ukraine has roiled energy markets worldwide and forced some countries to return to coal as a primary fuel. In view circumstances such as these, it is essential that significant changes be made to policies and planning criteria, and to the standards and code on which they are based. Given the accelerating pace of extreme weather events, this needs to occur as soon as possible.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Investigation of Technologies to Improve Condenser Heat Transfer and Performance in a Relevant Coal-Fired Power Plant

Improvements in thermal power-generating plant performance is correlated directly to societal benefits including lower cost of reduced fuel consumption, resulting in lower cost of electricity for the consumer and reduced carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Warm steam exhausted from low-pressure steam turbines is condensed to liquid water on the exterior of thin-walled metal condenser tubes with cooling water passing through the tube interior. The condensation of steam creates a vacuum that supports turbine rotation and the concurrent generation of electricity. This vacuum is optimized when heat transfer across the wall of condenser tube is maximized. Common hindrances to heat transfer include foulants in cooling water that may form and adhere to the interior of condenser tubes, including mineral scale, microbiological films, and particulate deposition. Flowing cooling water may also include a laminar layer at the interior metal surfaces that travels more slowly than bulk water flow, serving to impede heat transfer. On the tube exterior, condensing steam forms an insulating layer of water that flows down the tube and reduces the effectiveness of cooling. Both the interior and exterior barriers to optimal heat transfer may be alleviated to some extent by surface treatments. On the tube interior, hydrophobic coatings may be applied that can reduced the adherence of foulants and of the laminar flow layer to the tube surface. On the tube exterior, hydrophobic coatings or mechanical treatments can be applied that may result in the termination of droplet growth and the departure of droplets from the surface rather than coalescence into a continuous layer of flowing water. Fourteen surface treatments were applied to condenser tubes in this study, including eight interior coatings and six exterior treatments, five of which were coatings and one a microstructural texture. Heat transfer measurement equipment simulating conditions in the condenser of an operating power plant was used to determine heat transfer coefficients by measuring sufficient flow, temperature, water chemistry and other data. Several of the tubes with interior surface treatments showed improvement in heat transfer coefficients compared with a plain (uncoated) tube, and several of the tubes with exterior surface treatments also showed enhanced heat transfer coefficients.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Impact of Concurrent Solubilization and Fines Migration on Fracture Aperture Growth in Shales during Acidized Brine Injection

Acidic hydraulic fracturing fluid chemically and physically alters shale rock fabric during injection and shut-in, creating a “reaction-altered zone” along the fracture faces. To better characterize the variable thickness and composition of this reaction-altered zone under advective flow, we take a coupled experimental and modeling approach. A fluidic cell, with six fiducial markers, is first fabricated to keep the rock sample in place during the core floods and to allow image alignment of acquired images. Then, we conduct a series of reactive core floods in a clay-rich siliceous Wolfcamp shale sample with 10 wt % carbonate, using a synthetic fracturing fluid under no confining stress and at room temperature. High-resolution computed tomography (CT) scans are periodically conducted to observe the spatial alteration of the fracture network. We then perform scanning electron microscopy (SEM-EDS) on the two orthogonal surfaces (fracture surface and freshly cut profile face) to generate high-resolution elemental maps that show the change in mineralogy, both with distance along a given flow path along a fracture surface and with depth from the fracture surface into the shale matrix. These results are contrasted against a two-dimensional (2D) advection-diffusion reaction model developed previously for batch reactions between shale and synthetic fracturing fluids. The model simulates the geochemical interaction occurring at the fracture/matrix interface and penetrating into the shale matrix during the reactive core flood. Both model and experimental results show that the acidic brine is neutralized during the core flood, corresponding to an increase in fracture aperture as a function of fluid volume injected with the greatest change near the inlet. SEM-EDS scans reveal significant dissolution of carbonates on the fracture surface without pyrite oxidation. The reactive transport model indicates that carbonate depletion into the shale interior should be observable, yet SEM-EDS shows no discernible loss of carbonate in the orthogonal profile face. The combination of these observations suggests an additional fracture evolution mechanism in the reactive system, i.e., fines migration. We show that fines migration enhances the access of fracturing fluid to the matrix resulting in a more pronounced fracture widening. Finally, we conclude that coupled mineral dissolution and fines migration govern fracture aperture growth during acidized brine injection. In this work, we effectively show the underlying risk of relying solely on models that do not include an important (transport) process that can alter the system significantly and propose a combined chemomechanical mechanism for fracture evolution appropriate for this shale mineralogy.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Accelerating the Whiteshell Laboratories Decommissioning Through the Implementation of a Projectized and Delivery-Focused Organization - 13074

Whiteshell Laboratories (WL) is a nuclear research site in Canada that was commissioned in 1964 by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited. It covers a total area of approximately 4,375 hectares (10,800 acres) and includes the main campus site, the Waste Management Area (WMA) and outer areas of land identified as not used for or impacted by nuclear development or operations. The WL site employed up to 1100 staff. Site activities included the successful operation of a 60 MW organic liquid-cooled research reactor from 1965 to 1985, and various research programs including reactor safety research, small reactor development, fuel development, biophysics and radiation applications, as well as work under the Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste Management Program. In 1997, AECL made a business decision to discontinue research programs and operations at WL, and obtained government concurrence in 1998. The Nuclear Legacy Liabilities Program (NLLP) was established in 2006 by the Canadian Government to remediate nuclear legacy liabilities in a safe and cost effective manner, including the WL site. The NLLP is being implemented by AECL under the governance of a Natural Resources Canada (NRCan)/AECL Joint Oversight Committee (JOC). Significant progress has since been made, and the WL site currently holds the only Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) nuclear research site decommissioning license in Canada. The current decommissioning license is in place until the end of 2018. The present schedule planned for main campus decommissioning is 30 years (to 2037), followed by institutional control of the WMA until a National plan is implemented for the long-term management of nuclear waste. There is an impetus to advance work and complete decommissioning sooner. To accomplish this, AECL has added significant resources, reorganized and moved to a projectized environment. This presentation outlines changes made to the organization, the tools implemented to foster projectization, and the benefits and positive impacts on schedule and delivery. A revised organizational structure was implemented in two phases, starting 2011 April 1, to align WL staff with the common goal of decommissioning the site through the direction of the WL Decommissioning Project General Manager. On 2011 September 1, the second phase of the reorganization was implemented and WL Decommissioning staff was organized under five Divisions: Programs and Regulatory Compliance, General Site Services, Decommissioning Strategic Planning, Nuclear Facilities and Project Delivery. A new Mission, Vision and Objectives were developed for the project, and several productivity enhancements are being implemented. These include the use of an integrated and fully re-sourced Site Wide Schedule that is updated and reviewed at Plan-of-the-Week meetings, improved work distribution throughout the year, eliminating scheduling 'push' mentality, project scoreboards, work planning implementation, lean practices and various process improvement initiatives. A revised Strategic Plan is under development that reflects the improved project delivery capabilities. As a result of these initiatives, and a culture change towards a projectized approach, the decommissioning schedule will be advanced by approximately 10 years. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

TREAT neutronics analysis and design support, Part I: Multi-SERTTA

Experiment vehicle design is necessary in preparation for Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility restart and the resumption of transient testing to support Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) characterization and other future fuels testing requirements. Currently the most mature vehicle design is the Multi-SERTTA (Static Environments Rodlet Transient Test Apparatuses), which can accommodate up to four concurrent rodlet-sized specimens under separate environmental conditions. Robust test vehicle design requires neutronics analyses to support design development, optimization of the power coupling factor (PCF) to efficiently maximize energy generation in the test fuel rodlets, and experiment safety analyses. Calculations were performed to support analysis of a near-final design of the Multi-SERTTA vehicle, the design process for future TREAT test vehicles, and establish analytical practices for upcoming transient test experiments. Models of the Multi-SERTTA vehicle containing typical PWR-fuel rodlets were prepared and neutronics calculations were performed using MCNP6.1 with ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data libraries. Calculation of the PCF for reference conditions of a PWR fuel rodlet in clean water at operational temperature and pressure provided results between 1.10 and 1.73 W/g-MW depending on the location of the four Multi-SERTTA units with the stack. Basic changes to the Multi-SERTTA secondary vessel containment and support have minimal impact on PCF; using materials with less neutron absorption can improve expected PCF values, especially in the primary containment. An optimized balance is needed between structural integrity, experiment safety, and energy deposition in the experiment. Type of medium and environmental conditions within the primary vessel surrounding the fuel rodlet can also have a significant impact on resultant PCF values. The estimated reactivity insertion worth into the TREAT core is impacted more by the primary and secondary Multi-SERTTA vehicle structure with the experiment content and contained environment having a near negligible impact on overall system reactivity. Additional calculations were performed to evaluate the peak-to-average assembly powers throughout the TREAT core, as well as the nuclear heat generation for the various structural components of the Multi-SERTTA assembly. Future efforts include the evaluation of flux collars to shape the PCF for individual Multi-SERTTA units during an experiment such as to achieve uniformity in test unit environmental conditions impacted by the non-uniform axial flux/power profile of TREAT. Upon resumption of transient testing, experimental results from both the Multi-SERTTA and Multi-SERTTA-CAL will be compared against calculational results and methods for further optimization and design strategies. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

TREAT neutronics analysis and design support, Part II: Multi-SERTTA-CAL

Experiment vehicle design is necessary in preparation for Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility restart and the resumption of transient testing to support Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) characterization and other future fuels testing requirements. Currently the most mature vehicle design is the Multi-SERTTA (Static Environments Rodlet Transient Test Apparatuses), which can accommodate up to four concurrent rodlet-sized specimens under separate environmental conditions. Robust test vehicle design requires neutronics analyses to support design development, optimization of the power coupling factor (PCF) to efficiently maximize energy generation in the test fuel rodlets, and experiment safety analyses. An integral aspect of prior TREAT transient testing was the incorporation of calibration experiments to experimentally evaluate and validate test conditions in preparation of the actual fuel testing. The calibration experiment package established the test parameter conditions to support fine-tuning of the computational models to deliver the required energy deposition to the fuel samples. The calibration vehicle was designed to be as near neutronically equivalent to the experiment vehicle as possible to minimize errors between the calibration and final tests. The Multi-SERTTA-CAL vehicle was designed to serve as the calibration vehicle supporting Multi-SERTTA experimentation. Models of the Multi-SERTTA-CAL vehicle containing typical PWR-fuel rodlets were prepared and neutronics calculations were performed using MCNP6.1 with ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data libraries; these results were then compared against those performed for Multi-SERTTA to determine the similarity and possible design modification necessary prior to construction of these experiment vehicles. The estimated reactivity insertion worth into the TREAT core is very similar between the two vehicle designs, with the primary physical difference being a hollow Inconel tube running down the length of the calibration vehicle. Calculations of PCF indicate that on average there is a reduction of approximately 6 % for PWR fuel rodlets irradiated under both wet and dry conditions. Changes to the primary or secondary vessel structure in the calibration vehicle can be performed to offset this discrepancy and maintain neutronic equivalency. Current possible modifications to the calibration vehicle include reduction of the primary vessel wall thickness, swapping Zircaloy-4 for stainless steel 316 in the secondary containment, or slight modification to the temperature and pressure of the water environment within the primary vessel. Removal of some of the instrumentation within the calibration vehicle can also serve to slightly increase the PCF. Future efforts include further modification and optimization of the Multi-SERTTA and Multi-SERTTA-CAL designs in preparation of actual TREAT transient testing. Experimental results from both test vehicles will be compared against calculational results and methods to provide validation and support additional neutronics analyses. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Low-Cost, High-Performance Carbon Fiber for Compressed Natural Gas Storage Tanks (Final Technical Report – Down Select Report)

The aim of this project is to reduce the cost of Type IV, carbon fiber (CF) composite overwrap compressed gas storage tanks by reducing the cost of CF and CF composites. The project team worked to reduce the cost of CF by exploring and testing opportunities for a low-cost alternative precursor material for CF production to supplant market-dominant and costly polyacrylonitrile (PAN). Concurrently, the team aimed to reduce the cost of the tanks at the composite level by improving the interfacial adhesion between the fibers and the matrix resin through the incorporation of low-cost nanoparticles recycled from waste materials, which would reduce the volume of costly CF required to achieve the same tank performance. At the end of the first year, the project team selected mesophase pitch as the primary precursor candidate from a field of materials based on the superior mechanical performance and cost-saving potential. During the second year, the team produced CFs derived from mesophase pitch achieving an average tensile strength of 365.6 ksi and average tensile modulus of 40.74 Msi. Facility availability for spinning and converting these fibers at greater scale has hindered scale-up demonstration, but the team has identified opportunities to conduct this work in the near term. Cost modeling shows that these mesophase pitch-derived CFs can be up to 40% less expensive than PAN-derived CFs due to the lower cost of the feedstock material, higher throughput, greater conversion yield, and lower cost spinning method and compared to PAN. Additionally, the team has demonstrated at lab-scale that nanoparticle coating CFs can significantly increase the interfacial shear strength and load transfer efficiency of CFs in a matrix. Single filament pull-out testing showed a 27% average increase in max interfacial shear strength due to this coating. A continuous method of applying these coatings to a tow of CF has been developed for scale-up. 26 m tows of coated CFs were produced using this system and formed into composite ring samples for ASTM ring burst testing. Issues with the testing protocol have limited assessment of these results. A prototype Type IV tank was designed to meet ANSI HGV2 standards, and the design criteria set out by DOE, using the CF properties developed by the team paired with a proprietary resin matrix, a polyamide liner, and aluminum end bosses. The tank weighs 153.1 kg and with a total capacity of 5.8 kg H2 (5.6 kg usable), which yields a gravimetric capacity of 1.17 kWh/kg. Cost modeling predicts that the tank will have a projected cost of $15.73/kWh. Tank performance modeling does not include considerations for fiber-matrix load transfer efficiency improvements offered by nanoparticle coating method.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A Public-Private-Acadmic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is pleased to have led a partnership to advance the state-of-the-science of solar power forecasting by designing, developing, building, deploying, testing, and assessing the SunCast™ Solar Power Forecasting System. The project has included cutting edge research, testing in several geographically- and climatologically-diverse high penetration solar utilities and Independent System Operators (ISOs), and wide dissemination of the research results to raise the bar on solar power forecasting technology. The partners include three other national laboratories, six universities, and industry partners. This public-private-academic team has worked in concert to perform use-inspired research to advance solar power forecasting through cutting-edge research to advance both the necessary forecasting technologies and the metrics for evaluating them. The project has culminated in a year-long, full-scale demonstration of provide irradiance and power forecasts to utilities and ISOs to use in their operations. The project focused on providing elements of a value chain, beginning with the weather that causes a deviation from clear sky irradiance and progresses through monitoring and observations, modeling, forecasting, dissemination and communication of the forecasts, interpretation of the forecast, and through decision-making, which produces outcomes that have an economic value. The system has been evaluated using metrics developed specifically for this project, which has provided rich information on model and system performance. Research was accomplished on the very short range (0-6 hours) Nowcasting system as well as on the longer term (6-72 hour) forecasting system. The shortest range forecasts are based on observations in the field. The shortest range system, built by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and based on Total Sky Imagers (TSIs) is TSICast, which operates on the shortest time scale with a latency of only a few minutes and forecasts that currently go out to about 15 min. This project has facilitated research in improving the hardware and software so that the new high definition cameras deployed at multiple nearby locations allow discernment of the clouds at varying levels and advection according to the winds observed at those levels. Improvements over “smart persistence” are about 29% for even these very short forecasts. StatCast is based on pyranometer data measured at the site as well as concurrent meteorological observations and forecasts. StatCast is based on regime-dependent artificial intelligence forecasting techniques and has been shown to improve on “smart persistence” forecasts by 15-50%. A second category of short-range forecasting systems employ satellite imagery and use that information to discern clouds and their motion, allowing them to project the clouds, and the resulting blockage of irradiance, in time. CIRACast (the system produced by the Cooperative Institute for Atmospheric Research [CIRA] at Colorado State University) was already one of the more advanced cloud motion systems, which is the reason that team was brought to this project. During the project timeframe, the CIRA team was able to advance cloud shadowing, parallax removal, and implementation of better advecting winds at different altitudes. CIRACast shows generally a 25-40% improvement over Smart Persistence between sunrise and approximately 1600 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) . A second satellite-based system, MADCast (Multi-sensor Advective Diffusive foreCast system), assimilates data from multiple satellite imagers and profilers to assimilate a fully three-dimensional picture of the cloud into the dynamic core of WRF. During 2015, MADCast (provided at least 70% improvement over Smart Persistence, with most of that skill being derived during partly cloudy conditions. That allows advection of the clouds via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model dynamics directly. After WRF-Solar™ showed initial success, it was also deployed in nowcasting mode with coarser runs out to 6 hours made hourly. It provided improvements on the order of 50-60% over Smart Persistence for forecasts up to 1600 UTC. The advantages of WRF-Solar-Nowcasting and MADCast were then blended to develop the new MAD-WRF model that incorporates the most important features of each of those models, both assimilating satellite cloud fields and using WRF-So far physics to develop and dissipate clouds. MAE improvements for MAD-WRF for forecasts from 3-6 hours are improved over WRF-Solar-Now by 20%. While all the Nowcasting system components by themselves provide improvement over Smart Persistence, the largest benefit is derived when they are smartly blended together by the Nowcasting Integrator to produce an integrated forecast. The development of WRF-Solar™ under this project has provided the first numerical weather prediction (NWP) model specifically designed to meet the needs of irradiance forecasting. The first augmentation improved the solar tracking algorithm to account for deviations associated with the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit and the obliquity of the Earth. Second, WRF-Solar™ added the direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse (DIF) components from the radiation parameterization to the model output. Third, efficient parameterizations were implemented to either interpolate the irradiance in between calls to the expensive radiative transfer parameterization, or to use a fast radiative transfer code that avoids computing three-dimensional heating rates but provides the surface irradiance. Fourth, a new parameterization was developed to improve the representation of absorption and scattering of radiation by aerosols (aerosol direct effect). A fifth advance is that the aerosols now interact with the cloud microphysics, altering the cloud evolution and radiative properties, an effect that has been traditionally only implemented in atmospheric computationally costly chemistry models. A sixth development accounts for the feedbacks that sub-grid scale clouds produce in shortwave irradiance as implemented in a shallow cumulus parameterization Finally, WRF-Solar™ also allows assimilation of infrared irradiances from satellites to determine the three dimensional cloud field, allowing for an improved initialization of the cloud field that increases the performance of short-range forecasts. We find that WRF-Solar™ can improve clear sky irradiance prediction by 15-80% over a standard version of WRF, depending on location and cloud conditions. In a formal comparison to the NAM baseline, WRF-Solar™ showed improvements in the Day-Ahead forecast of 22-42%. The SunCast™ system requires substantial software engineering to blend all of the new model components as well as existing publically available NWP model runs. To do this we use an expert system for the Nowcasting blender and the Dynamic Integrated foreCast (DICast®) system for the NWP models. These two systems are then blended, we use an empirical power conversion method to convert the irradiance predictions to power, then apply an analog ensemble (AnEn) approach to further tune the forecast as well as to estimate its uncertainty. The AnEn module decreased RMSE (root mean squared error) by 17% over the blended SunCast™ power forecasts and provided skill in the probabilistic forecast with a Brier Skill Score of 0.55. In addition, we have also developed a Gridded Atmospheric Forecast System (GRAFS) in parallel, leveraging cost share funds. An economic evaluation based on Production Cost Modeling in the Public Service Company of Colorado showed that the observed 50% improvement in forecast accuracy will save their customers $819,200 with the projected MW deployment for 2024. Using econometrics, NCAR has scaled this savings to a national level and shown that an annual expected savings for this 50% forecast error reduction ranges from $11M in 2015 to $43M expected in 2040 with increased solar deployment. This amounts to a $455M discounted savings over the 26 year period of analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗