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At least 307 records · Page 17

Monsoonal MCS Initiation, Rainfall, and Diurnal Gravity Waves over the Bay of Bengal: Observation and a Linear Model

Abstract Previous observational studies have indicated that mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute the majority of precipitation over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during the summer monsoon season, yet their initiation and propagation remain incompletely understood. To fill this knowledge gap, we conducted a comprehensive study using a combination of 20-yr satellite observations, MCS tracking, reanalysis data, and a theoretical linear model. Satellite observations reveal clear diurnal propagation signals of MCS initiation frequency and rainfall from the west coast of the BoB toward the central BoB, with the MCS rainfall propagating slightly slower than the MCS initiation frequency. Global reanalysis data indicate a strong association between the offshore-propagating MCS initiation frequency/rainfall and diurnal low-level wind perturbations, implying the potential role of gravity waves. To verify the hypothesis, we developed a 2D linear model that can be driven by realistic meteorological fields from reanalysis. The linear model realistically reproduces the characteristics of offshore-propagating diurnal wind perturbations. The wind perturbations, as well as the offshore propagation signals of MCS initiation frequency and rainfall, are associated with diurnal gravity waves emitted from the coastal regions, which in turn are caused by the diurnal land–sea thermal contrast. The ambient wind speed and vertical wind shear play crucial roles in modulating the timing, propagation, and amplitude of diurnal gravity waves. Using the linear model and satellite observations, we further show that the stronger monsoonal flows lead to faster offshore propagation of diurnal gravity waves, which subsequently control the offshore propagation signals of MCS initiation and rainfall. Significance Statement Rainfall over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is primarily contributed by large and organized rainfall systems in the summer monsoon season. During this season, these systems are commonly observed over the east coast of India around midnight, the western BoB in the morning, and the central BoB in the afternoon. This eastward rainfall propagation is confirmed by observations, reanalysis data, and a theoretical model to have a strong association with atmospheric diurnal gravity waves. These waves are caused by land–sea thermal contrast and can trigger rainfall systems over the offshore regions. We also found that the diurnal gravity waves, as well as their triggered rainfall systems, can be greatly modulated by the large-scale monsoonal flows. All the above findings improve our understanding of diurnal rainfall cycle over the BoB and may contribute to the future improvement of rainfall forecast over the region.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Bayesian learning of orthogonal embeddings for multi-fidelity Gaussian Processes

Uncertainty propagation in complex engineering systems often poses significant computational challenges related to modeling and quantifying probability distributions of model outputs, as those emerge as the result of various sources of uncertainty that are inherent in the system under investigation. Gaussian Processes regression (GPs) is a robust meta-modeling technique that allows for fast model prediction and exploration of response surfaces. Multi-fidelity variations of GPs further leverage information from cheap and low fidelity model simulations in order to improve their predictive performance on the high fidelity model. In order to cope with the high volume of data required to train GPs in high dimensional design spaces, a common practice is to introduce latent design variables that are typically projections of the original input space to a lower dimensional subspace, and therefore substitute the problem of learning the initial high dimensional mapping, with that of training a GP on a low dimensional space. Here in this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to identify optimal transformations that map the input points to low dimensional latent variables. The \projection" mapping consists of an orthonormal matrix that is considered a priori unknown and needs to be inferred jointly with the GP parameters, conditioned on the available training data. The proposed Bayesian inference scheme relies on a two-step iterative algorithm that samples from the marginal posteriors of the GP parameters and the projection matrix respectively, both using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. In order to take into account the orthogonality constraints imposed on the orthonormal projection matrix, a Geodesic Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is employed, that is suitable for exploiting probability measures on manifolds. We extend the proposed framework to multi-fidelity models using GPs including the scenarios of training multiple outputs together. We validate our framework on three synthetic problems with a known lower-dimensional subspace. The benefits of our proposed framework, are illustrated on the computationally challenging aerodynamic optimization of a last-stage blade for an industrial gas turbine, where we study the effect of an 85-dimensional shape parameterization of a three-dimensional airfoil on two output quantities of interest, specifically on the aerodynamic efficiency and the degree of reaction

42 ENGINEERING↗

Using long‐term data from a whole ecosystem warming experiment to identify best spring and autumn phenology models

Abstract Predicting vegetation phenology in response to changing environmental factors is key in understanding feedbacks between the biosphere and the climate system. Experimental approaches extending the temperature range beyond historic climate variability provide a unique opportunity to identify model structures that are best suited to predicting phenological changes under future climate scenarios. Here, we model spring and autumn phenological transition dates obtained from digital repeat photography in a boreal Picea ‐ Sphagnum bog in response to a gradient of whole ecosystem warming manipulations of up to +9°C, using five years of observational data. In spring, seven equally best‐performing models for Larix utilized the accumulation of growing degree days as a common driver for temperature forcing. For Picea , the best two models were sequential models requiring winter chilling before spring forcing temperature is accumulated. In shrub, parallel models with chilling and forcing requirements occurring simultaneously were identified as the best models. Autumn models were substantially improved when a CO 2 parameter was included. Overall, the combination of experimental manipulations and multiple years of observations combined with variation in weather provided the framework to rule out a large number of candidate models and to identify best spring and autumn models for each plant functional type.

Schädel, Christina↗

Machine learning methods for fission product identification from Bragg curves

A fission time projection chamber (fission-TPC) was developed to provide precise neutron-induced fission measurements for several major actinides. As fission fragments lose energy in one of the gas volumes of the fission-TPC, energy loss information is captured and may be used to determine fission product yields as the stopping power of an ion is dependent on the atomic number. The work presented here demonstrates the ability to apply machine learning techniques for Bragg curve classification. A set of one million energy loss curves for 24 different fission-fragment elements was generated using common stopping power software. A ResNet architecture optimized for 1D data was used to train, test, and validate a model for light and heavy fission fragments using the simulated data. The resultant classification accuracy for the light and heavy fragments indicates that this could be a viable method for elemental classification of data from the fission-TPC.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Life-cycle Analysis of Conversion of Post-Use Plastic via Pyrolysis with the GREET Model

In this report, we present an updated LCA of the PTF pathway developed at Argonne. Benavides et al. (2017) analyzed the environmental impact of producing ultra-low sulfur (ULS) diesel fuel from PUP via pyrolysis (the most common PTF technology). We used the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET®) model and collected data from eight PTF companies to assess the potential energy and environmental benefits associated with this technology (Argonne, 2020). We conducted a survey and aggregated the dataset based on the different responses, which included plant capacity, process yields, feedstock composition, material and energy inputs, and outputs, and other parameters. We calculated the energy, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and water consumption of its intermediate product pyrolysis oil and final product PUP-derived ULS diesel and compared the results to those metrics for their conventional counterparts (crude naphtha and petroleum ULS diesel fuel).

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Development of a 95-Year Solar Dataset for Resource Adequacy Studies

Long-term high-resolution solar data provides enhanced understanding of variability of solar generation and enhances our ability to develop strategies for a resilient and reliable electric grid under high deployment of solar energy. Therefore, it is important to develop long-term synthetic datasets that can provide multiple occurrences of various severe weather scenarios that are expected to test the limits of resource adequacy under scenarios contain various energy generation sources. Examples of such scenarios could be long periods of high temperatures when demand for electricity is high or periods where high winds could lead to a shut-down of transmission lines for long periods of time to ensure fire safety. NREL has developed the first version of such a dataset covering a 95-year period covering 2006-2100 at a 4km hourly resolution. This dataset contains all variables necessary to calculate solar generation. During development of this dataset, we focused on creating unbiased, high-resolution solar irradiance through statistical downscaling methods, using Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) as input. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) containing over 25 years of observations was used to calibrate the statistical downscaling models. This presentation will outline the primary steps in developing this dataset, including (1) regridding RCM data to a common grid at 20-km resolution, (2) correcting RCM biases with NSRDB, (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar and ancillary data. Additionally, we will present an evaluation of the downscaled data against the NSRDB across various zones in the CONUS. Lastly, we will present a user guide for accessing the datasets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Moisture Metaphenome Incubation Analysis Results

The Birch effect, a pulse of CO2 release that occurs when dry soil is rewet, is commonly observed, yet the underlying biogeochemistry remains elusive. Using multi-omics data, real-time mass spectrometry and modeling approaches, we investigated the molecular response to rewetting of a soil microbiome exposed to drought for one and two weeks. The microbiome response was evaluated through analysis of transcript, protein, metabolite, and respiration profiles and metabolic modeling using an enhanced version of the Metabolite Expression Metabolic Network Integration for Pathway Identification and Selection (MEMPIS) algorithm (Roy Chowdhury et al, mSystems, 2019).

Lipton, Mary S [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

Modeling Assessment of Residential Air-to-Water Heat Pumps Coupled with Cooling Thermal Storage

This study explored the performance and operating cost viability of air-to-water heat pumps (AWHPs) coupled with thermal energy storage (TES) in efficient new residential construction. AWHPs are an emerging technology in this country, but offer promise in terms of high efficiency, fully contained and factory charged outdoor refrigeration system, and hydronic delivery capabilities, which facilitates zoning, ducts in conditioned space, and TES integration for summer load-shifting. Although this AWHP+TES strategy is not yet mainstream, the authors feel that in ten years as decarbonization efforts proceed and TOU rates become more common, strategies such as this will be more accessible. Validated EnergyPlus simulation models were developed based on detailed monitoring data collected over several years at Pacific Gas and Electric's CVRH laboratory test homes located in Stockton, California. One of the CVRH test homes (1,962 ft 2 two-story) had been testing various AWHP systems and configurations over the past six years. The validated model was then updated with high efficiency IECC ZERH envelope and component requirements for climate zones 1-5, including ducts in conditioned space thermal distribution. Simulations were completed for the 1,962 ft 2 home in each climate zone for a minimum efficiency ASHP, an AWHP coupled with a fan coil, and an AWHP coupled with TES sized to eliminate summer on-peak compressor operation. To maintain consistency in reporting energy use estimates, all cases were run with a similar indoor thermostat control strategy to pre-cool the house below the nominal 76 degrees Fahrenheit set point prior to the on-peak period and float slightly above the set point during the peak period. The AWHP+TES configuration was controlled to alternately condition the indoor space or to charge the TES tanks prior to the beginning of the on-peak. Three composite TOU rates were developed based on existing TOU rates across the U.S. to provide differing economic scenarios to evaluate customer bill impacts throughout the summer. Two of the TOU rates had short three-hour peak periods, while the third rate had a longer seven-hour duration peak period. AWHP modeling projections were based on the observed field performance of the Chiltrix CX34 variable speed unit. Other products on the market or entering the market in the near term would likely perform differently.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Layers Can Be Deceiving: A Hopping Model for Small Molecule Diffusion in TATB Crystal

Sorption of small molecule gases in materials can play a significant role in their long‐term stability and compatibility within multi‐material assemblies. While many material properties of the insensitive high explosive TATB (1,3,5‐triamino‐2,4,6‐trinitrobenzene) are well understood, very little is known regarding its permeability to gases. TATB crystal exhibits a graphitic‐like layered packing structure that evokes a mental schema in which the layers form nanoscopic channels, but it is unclear whether this structure promotes gas transport. Here, we use molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to predict transport of small molecules through TATB single crystal. An approach to fit classical force fields is developed to model TATB interactions with H 2 O, He, Ne, and Ar, which is then combined with steered MD to probe gas transport along selected directions in the crystal. We find that small molecule transport occurs via a hopping mechanism that exhibits distinct jumps between interstitial sites and is substantially faster normal to the layers as compared to through them. This result stems from the finding that intralayer junctions between adjacent TATB molecules are the most stable interstitial sites and that energetic barriers are lower for hopping between adjacent layers. An empirical model for diffusion rate based on the MD data shows that the rate decays exponentially with increasing molecular radius and is negligibly small for all molecules larger than He, including common atmospheric gases. These findings have implications for the interpretation of experiments that measure surface area, material response to extreme conditions, and are expected to help constrain models for material aging.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Allometric relationships and trade‐offs in 11 common M editerranean‐climate grasses

Abstract Biomass allocation in plants is the foundation for understanding dynamics in ecosystem carbon balance, species competition, and plant–environment interactions. However, existing work on plant allometry has mainly focused on trees, with fewer studies having developed allometric equations for grasses. Grasses with different life histories can vary in their carbon investment by prioritizing the growth of specific organs to survive, outcompete co‐occurring plants, and ensure population persistence. Further, because grasses are important fuels for wildfire, the lack of grass allocation data adds uncertainty to process‐based models that relate plant physiology to wildfire dynamics. To fill this gap, we conducted a greenhouse experiment with 11 common California grasses varying in photosynthetic pathway and growth form. We measured plant sizes and harvested above‐ and belowground biomass throughout the life cycle of annual species, while for the establishment stage of perennial grasses to quantify allometric relationships for leaf, stem, and root biomass, as well as plant height and canopy area. We used basal diameter as a reference measure of plant size. Overall, basal diameter is the best predictor for leaf and stem biomass, height, and canopy area. Including height as another predictor can improve model accuracy in predicting leaf and stem biomass and canopy area. Fine root biomass is a function of leaf biomass alone. Species vary in their allometric relationships, with most variation occurring for plant height, canopy area, and stem biomass. We further explored potential trade‐offs in biomass allocation across species between leaf and fine root, leaf and stem, and allocation to reproduction. Consistent with our expectation, we found that fast‐growing plants allocated a greater fraction to reproduction. Additionally, plant height and specific leaf area negatively influenced the leaf‐to‐stem ratio. However, contrary to our hypothesis, there were no differences in root‐to‐leaf ratio between perennial and annual or C 4 and C 3 plants. Our study provides species‐specific and functional‐type‐specific allometry equations for both above‐ and belowground organs of 11 common California grass species, enabling nondestructive biomass assessment in California grasslands. These allometric relationships and trade‐offs in carbon allocation across species can improve ecosystem model predictions of grassland species interactions and environmental responses through differences in morphology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Morphological descriptors of nanoparticles: The link between atomistic structures and x-ray absorption spectra

Understanding and quantifying the morphology of nanoparticles are essential for linking their atomic structure to diverse applications and verifying theoretical models. While experimental information on the structure of nanoparticles in the size range below ∼5 nm can be extracted from x-ray absorption spectroscopy using a small number of descriptors—most commonly coordination numbers—developing an understanding of morphology descriptors from experimental data remains a challenge. Here, in this study, we introduce NanoGene, a genetic algorithm-based method for generating structurally diverse nanoparticle models guided by user-defined descriptors. We establish correlations among structural, size-related, and morphological descriptors and demonstrate how experimentally accessible parameters, such as coordination numbers, can be leveraged to infer otherwise inaccessible ones, such as the generalized coordination number or particle oblateness. Principal component and clustering analyses reveal the relative importance of descriptors, with the number of atoms emerging as a key discriminant of the nanoparticle structure. By providing both the methodology and an extensive dataset of nanoparticle geometries, this work offers a practical foundation for descriptor-based analysis and interpretation of experimental observations, bridging the gap between local atomic coordinates and global morphological characterization.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Data readiness pipeline patterns for scientific AI at scale: Insights from climate, fusion, life sciences, and materials

This article examines how data readiness for AI principles apply to large scientific datasets used to train foundation models. We analyze archetypal workflows across four representative domains—climate, nuclear fusion, life sciences, and materials—to identify common preprocessing patterns and domain‐specific constraints. We introduce a two‐dimensional readiness model that combines canonical preprocessing patterns with a five‐level operational readiness scale, both tailored to high‐performance computing (HPC) environments. This construct helps outline key challenges in transforming large‐scale scientific data into formats suitable for scalable AI training. Together, these dimensions form a conceptual maturity matrix that characterizes scientific data readiness and guides infrastructure development toward standardized, cross‐domain support for scalable and reproducible AI for science. Finally, we evaluate this maturity matrix in the context of case studies including ClimaX (climate), AFLOW (materials), OpenFold (proteomics), and DIII‐D fusion disruption‐prediction workflows, from which we distill lessons learned and provide recommendations to guide practitioners in developing robust AI‐readiness pipelines. Finally, we discuss remaining cross‐cutting challenges that persist across scientific domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Learning viscoelasticity models from indirect data using deep neural networks

In this study, we propose a novel approach to model viscoelasticity materials, where rate-dependent and non-linear constitutive relationships are approximated with deep neural networks. We assume that inputs and outputs of the neural networks are not directly observable, and therefore common training techniques with input–output pairs for the neural networks are inapplicable. To that end, we develop a novel computational approach to both calibrate parametric and learn neural-network-based constitutive relations of viscoelasticity materials from indirect displacement data in the context of multiple-physics systems. We show that limited displacement data holds sufficient information to quantify the viscoelasticity behavior. We formulate the inverse computation – modeling viscoelasticity properties from observed displacement data – as a PDE-constrained optimization problem and minimize the error functional using a gradient-based optimization method. The gradients are computed by a combination of automatic differentiation and implicit function differentiation rules. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated through numerous benchmark problems in geomechanics and porous media transport.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Parametric Study of SANSMIC Input and Resulting Impact on Predicted Cavern Geometry and Leaching Efficiency

The Sandia Solution Mining Code (SANSMIC) has been used for many years to examine the development of salt cavern geometry, both in a confirmatory manner with comparisons made to real-world sonar data and in a predictive manner when updated sonar data are not available. SANSMIC models require some modeling choices in order to incorporate real-world data. Key modeling choices include the vertical resolution of cavern geometry to implement, as well as how to incorporate daily raw water injection data into the SANSMIC model. This report documents five studies that address the impact of the modeling choices on the predicted cavern geometries and calculated leaching efficiencies. In most cases, hypothetical cylindrical initial cavern geometries are used to provide a common baseline against which to test the systematic variation of input variables including cavern radius, oil-brine-interface (OBI) depth, vertical cell size, raw water injection rate, raw water injection duration, workover time, and number of leaching stages. The use of smaller cell sizes is recommended moving forward to provide a better one-to-one relationship between sonar data and the modeled cavern. A new methodology for incorporating raw water injection data is also recommended, in order to more closely model real-world injection and workover times. Overall, the systematic studies performed here have increased our confidence in previous SANSMIC model results, as well future use of the code for predicting leaching effects on cavern geometries. Some minor changes to modeling choices are recommended, which can easily be applied with the version of SANSMIC currently under development.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Explainable AI for a No-Teardown Vehicle Component Cost Estimation: A Top-Down Approach

The broader ambition of this article is to popularize an approach for the fair distribution of the quantity of a system's output to its subsystems while allowing for underlying complex subsystem level interactions. Particularly, we present the use of this framework on a very specific (but generalizable) application, interesting for a more general AI audience. Here, we detail a data-driven approach to vehicle price modeling and its component price estimation by leveraging a combination of concepts from machine learning and game theory. We show an alternative to common teardown methodologies and surveying approaches for component and vehicle price estimation at the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) level that has the advantage of bypassing uncertainties involved in gathering teardown data, the need to perform expensive and biased surveying, and the need to perform retail price equivalent or indirect cost multiplier adjustments to mark up direct manufacturing costs to MSRP. This novel exercise not only provides accurate pricing of the technologies at the customer level, but also shows the, a priori known, large gaps in pricing strategies between manufacturers, vehicle classes, market segments, etc. There is also clear interaction between the price of technologies and other specifications present in vehicles. Those results are indication that old methods of manufacturer-level component costing, aggregation, and application of flat and rigid adjustment factors should be carefully examined. The findings are based on a database developed by Argonne, which includes over 64,000 vehicles covering MY1990 to MY2020 with hundreds of vehicle specs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

ET-AL: Entropy-targeted active learning for bias mitigation in materials data

Growing materials data and data-driven informatics drastically promote the discovery and design of materials. While there are significant advancements in data-driven models, the quality of data resources is less studied despite its huge impact on model performance. In this work, we focus on data bias arising from uneven coverage of materials families in existing knowledge. Observing different diversities among crystal systems in common materials databases, we propose an information entropy-based metric for measuring this bias. To mitigate the bias, we develop an entropy-targeted active learning (ET-AL) framework, which guides the acquisition of new data to improve the diversity of underrepresented crystal systems. We demonstrate the capability of ET-AL for bias mitigation and the resulting improvement in downstream machine learning models. This approach is broadly applicable to data-driven materials discovery, including autonomous data acquisition and dataset trimming to reduce bias, as well as data-driven informatics in other scientific domains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Human limits in machine learning: prediction of potato yield and disease using soil microbiome data

Abstract Background The preservation of soil health is a critical challenge in the 21st century due to its significant impact on agriculture, human health, and biodiversity. We provide one of the first comprehensive investigations into the predictive potential of machine learning models for understanding the connections between soil and biological phenotypes. We investigate an integrative framework performing accurate machine learning-based prediction of plant performance from biological, chemical, and physical properties of the soil via two models: random forest and Bayesian neural network. Results Prediction improves when we add environmental features, such as soil properties and microbial density, along with microbiome data. Different preprocessing strategies show that human decisions significantly impact predictive performance. We show that the naive total sum scaling normalization that is commonly used in microbiome research is one of the optimal strategies to maximize predictive power. Also, we find that accurately defined labels are more important than normalization, taxonomic level, or model characteristics. ML performance is limited when humans can’t classify samples accurately. Lastly, we provide domain scientists via a full model selection decision tree to identify the human choices that optimize model prediction power. Conclusions Our study highlights the importance of incorporating diverse environmental features and careful data preprocessing in enhancing the predictive power of machine learning models for soil and biological phenotype connections. This approach can significantly contribute to advancing agricultural practices and soil health management.

Aghdam, Rosa↗

Building fault detection data to aid diagnostic algorithm creation and performance testing

It is estimated that approximately 4-5% of national energy consumption can be saved through corrections to existing commercial building controls infrastructure and resulting improvements to efficiency. Correspondingly, automated fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) algorithms are designed to identify the presence of operational faults and their root causes. A diversity of techniques is used for FDD spanning physical models, black box, and rule-based approaches. A persistent challenge has been the lack of common datasets and test methods to benchmark their performance accuracy. This article presents a first of its kind public dataset with ground-truth data on the presence and absence of building faults. This dataset spans a range of seasons and operational conditions and encompasses multiple building system types. It contains information on fault severity, as well as data points reflective of the measurements in building control systems that FDD algorithms typically have access to. The data were created using simulation models as well as experimental test facilities, and will be expanded over time.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗