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DOE OSTI2021

Graph Convolutional Network-Based Topology Embedded Deep Reinforcement Learning for Voltage Stability Control

Topological variations in power system is a common phenomenon and can impose significant challenges to traditional controllers of power system. Recent study revealed the strength of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based approaches in power system preventive and corrective control. But topological variations are difficult to capture using classical fully connected neural network (FCN) model and has not been explicitly modeled in previous work. Hence, we develop a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) based DRL framework to tackle topology changes in control design of power system. The GCN model exploits the graph structure of the power network and helps the DRL agent to embed the topology information during learning process. Our GCN based approach is evaluated using the IEEE-39 bus system and it outperforms the FCN-based DRL scheme in terms of training convergence and control performance considering grid topology changes.

Hossain, Ramij Raja↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data and scripts associated with a manuscript on residence time distribution simulation in two 10-kilometer long river sections

This data package is associated with the publication “On the Transferability of Residence Time Distributions in Two 10-km Long River Sections with Similar Hydromorphic Units” submitted to the Journal of Hydrology (Bao et al. 2024).Quantifying hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEFs) at the stream-groundwater interface, along with their residence time distributions (RTDs) in the subsurface, is crucial for managing water quality and ecosystem health in dynamic river corridors. However, directly simulating high-spatial resolution HEFs and RTDs can be a time-consuming process, particularly for watershed-scale modeling. Efficient surrogate models that link RTDs to hydromorphic units (HUs) may serve as alternatives for simulating RTDs in large-scale models. One common concern with these surrogate models, however, is the transferability of the relationship between the RTDs and HUs from one river corridor to another. To address this, we evaluated the HEFs and the resulting RTD-HU relationships for two 10-kilometer-long river corridors along the Columbia River, using a one-way coupled three-dimensional transient surface-subsurface water transport modeling framework that we previously developed. Applying this framework to the two river corridors with similar HUs allows for quantitative comparisons of HEFs and RTDs using both statistical tests and machine learning classification models. This data package includes the model inputs files and the simulation results data. This data package contains 10 folders. The modeling simulation results data are in the folders 100H_pt_data and 300area_pt_data, for the study domain Hanford 100H and 300 area respectively. The remaining eight folders contain the scripts and data to generate the manuscript figures. The file-level metadata file (Bao_2024_Residence_Time_Distribution _flmd.csv) includes a list of all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The data dictionary file (Bao_2024_Residence_Time_Distribution _dd.csv) includes column header definitions and units of all tabular files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cosmic Inference: Constraining Parameters with Observations and a Highly Limited Number of Simulations

We look at cosmological probes that pose an inverse problem where the measurement result is obtained through observations, and the objective is to infer values of model parameters that characterize the underlying physical system-our universe, from these observations and theoretical forward-modeling. The only way to accurately forward-model physical behavior on small scales is via expensive numerical simulations, which are further “emulated” due to their high cost. Emulators are commonly built with a set of simulations covering the parameter space with Latin hypercube sampling and an interpolation procedure; the aim is to establish an approximately constant prediction error across the hypercube. In this paper, we provide a description of a novel statistical framework for obtaining accurate parameter constraints. The proposed framework uses multi-output Gaussian process emulators that are adaptively constructed using Bayesian optimization methods with the goal of maintaining a low emulation error in the region of the hypercube preferred by the observational data. In this paper, we compare several approaches for constructing multi-output emulators that enable us to take possible inter-output correlations into account while maintaining the efficiency needed for inference. Using a Lyα forest flux power spectrum, we demonstrate that our adaptive approach requires considerably fewer-by a factor of a few in the Lyα P(k) case considered here-simulations compared to the emulation based on Latin hypercube sampling, and that the method is more robust in reconstructing parameters and their Bayesian credible intervals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using long‐term data from a whole ecosystem warming experiment to identify best spring and autumn phenology models

Abstract Predicting vegetation phenology in response to changing environmental factors is key in understanding feedbacks between the biosphere and the climate system. Experimental approaches extending the temperature range beyond historic climate variability provide a unique opportunity to identify model structures that are best suited to predicting phenological changes under future climate scenarios. Here, we model spring and autumn phenological transition dates obtained from digital repeat photography in a boreal Picea ‐ Sphagnum bog in response to a gradient of whole ecosystem warming manipulations of up to +9°C, using five years of observational data. In spring, seven equally best‐performing models for Larix utilized the accumulation of growing degree days as a common driver for temperature forcing. For Picea , the best two models were sequential models requiring winter chilling before spring forcing temperature is accumulated. In shrub, parallel models with chilling and forcing requirements occurring simultaneously were identified as the best models. Autumn models were substantially improved when a CO 2 parameter was included. Overall, the combination of experimental manipulations and multiple years of observations combined with variation in weather provided the framework to rule out a large number of candidate models and to identify best spring and autumn models for each plant functional type.

Schädel, Christina↗

DOE OSTI2025

SymbolNet: neural symbolic regression with adaptive dynamic pruning for compression

Abstract Compact symbolic expressions have been shown to be more efficient than neural network (NN) models in terms of resource consumption and inference speed when implemented on custom hardware such as field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), while maintaining comparable accuracy (Tsoi et al 2024 EPJ Web Conf. 295 09036). These capabilities are highly valuable in environments with stringent computational resource constraints, such as high-energy physics experiments at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. However, finding compact expressions for high-dimensional datasets remains challenging due to the inherent limitations of genetic programming (GP), the search algorithm of most symbolic regression (SR) methods. Contrary to GP, the NN approach to SR offers scalability to high-dimensional inputs and leverages gradient methods for faster equation searching. Common ways of constraining expression complexity often involve multistage pruning with fine-tuning, which can result in significant performance loss. In this work, we propose S y m b o l N e t , a NN approach to SR specifically designed as a model compression technique, aimed at enabling low-latency inference for high-dimensional inputs on custom hardware such as FPGAs. This framework allows dynamic pruning of model weights, input features, and mathematical operators in a single training process, where both training loss and expression complexity are optimized simultaneously. We introduce a sparsity regularization term for each pruning type, which can adaptively adjust its strength, leading to convergence at a target sparsity ratio. Unlike most existing SR methods that struggle with datasets containing more than O ( 10 ) inputs, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our model on the LHC jet tagging task (16 inputs), MNIST (784 inputs), and SVHN (3072 inputs).

Tsoi, Ho Fung (ORCID:0000000225502184)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Intensive Care Unit Length of Stay and Mortality Using Patient Vital Signs: Machine Learning Model Development and Validation

Background: Patient monitoring is vital in all stages of care. In particular, intensive care unit (ICU) patient monitoring has the potential to reduce complications and morbidity, and to increase the quality of care by enabling hospitals to deliver higher-quality, cost-effective patient care, and improve the quality of medical services in the ICU. Objective: We here report the development and validation of ICU length of stay and mortality prediction models. The models will be used in an intelligent ICU patient monitoring module of an Intelligent Remote Patient Monitoring (IRPM) framework that monitors the health status of patients, and generates timely alerts, maneuver guidance, or reports when adverse medical conditions are predicted. Methods: We utilized the publicly available Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) database to extract ICU stay data for adult patients to build two prediction models: one for mortality prediction and another for ICU length of stay. For the mortality model, we applied six commonly used machine learning (ML) binary classification algorithms for predicting the discharge status (survived or not). For the length of stay model, we applied the same six ML algorithms for binary classification using the median patient population ICU stay of 2.64 days. For the regression-based classification, we used two ML algorithms for predicting the number of days. We built two variations of each prediction model: one using 12 baseline demographic and vital sign features, and the other based on our proposed quantiles approach, in which we use 21 extra features engineered from the baseline vital sign features, including their modified means, standard deviations, and quantile percentages. Results: We could perform predictive modeling with minimal features while maintaining reasonable performance using the quantiles approach. The best accuracy achieved in the mortality model was approximately 89% using the random forest algorithm. The highest accuracy achieved in the length of stay model, based on the population median ICU stay (2.64 days), was approximately 65% using the random forest algorithm. Conclusions: The novelty in our approach is that we built models to predict ICU length of stay and mortality with reasonable accuracy based on a combination of ML and the quantiles approach that utilizes only vital signs available from the patient’s profile without the need to use any external features. This approach is based on feature engineering of the vital signs by including their modified means, standard deviations, and quantile percentages of the original features, which provided a richer dataset to achieve better predictive power in our models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hierarchical Inference with Bayesian Neural Networks: An Application to Strong Gravitational Lensing

In the past few years, approximate Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have demonstrated the ability to produce statistically consistent posteriors on a wide range of inference problems at unprecedented speed and scale. However, any disconnect between training sets and the distribution of real-world objects can introduce bias when BNNs are applied to data. This is a common challenge in astrophysics and cosmology, where the unknown distribution of objects in our universe is often the science goal. In this work, we incorporate BNNs with flexible posterior parameterizations into a hierarchical inference framework that allows for the reconstruction of population hyperparameters and removes the bias introduced by the training distribution. We focus on the challenge of producing posterior PDFs for strong gravitational lens mass model parameters given Hubble Space Telescope–quality single-filter, lens-subtracted, synthetic imaging data. We show that the posterior PDFs are sufficiently accurate (statistically consistent with the truth) across a wide variety of power-law elliptical lens mass distributions. We then apply our approach to test data sets whose lens parameters are drawn from distributions that are drastically different from the training set. We show that our hierarchical inference framework mitigates the bias introduced by an unrepresentative training set's interim prior. Simultaneously, we can precisely reconstruct the population hyperparameters governing our test distributions. Our full pipeline, from training to hierarchical inference on thousands of lenses, can be run in a day. The framework presented here will allow us to efficiently exploit the full constraining power of future ground- and space-based surveys (https://github.com/swagnercarena/ovejero).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of a new quantum trajectory molecular dynamics framework

An extension to the wave packet description of quantum plasmas is presented, where the wave packet can be elongated in arbitrary directions. A generalized Ewald summation is constructed for the wave packet models accounting for long-range Coulomb interactions and fermionic effects are approximated by purpose-built Pauli potentials, self-consistent with the wave packets used. We demonstrate its numerical implementation with good parallel support and close to linear scaling in particle number, used for comparisons with the more common wave packet employing isotropic states. Ground state and thermal properties are compared between the models with differences occurring primarily in the electronic subsystem. Especially, the electrical conductivity of dense hydrogen is investigated where a 15% increase in DC conductivity can be seen in our wave packet model compared with other models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Helium Incorporation into Scandium Fluoride, a Model Negative Thermal Expansion Material

Scandium trifluoride is a model negative thermal expansion (NTE) material. Its simple structure can be described as an A-site vacant perovskite, and it shows isotropic NTE over a very wide temperature range (up to ~1100 K), due to transverse vibrational motion of the fluoride. Like many framework NTE materials, it undergoes a phase transition at low pressures, adopting a rhombohedral (R3̅c) structure at >0.7 GPa and 300 K in commonly used nonpenetrating pressure media, such as silicone oil. High pressure X-ray diffraction data and gas uptake/release measurements indicate that, on compression in helium above ~200 K, helium is inserted into ScF 3 to form the defect perovskite He x ScF 3 . The incorporation of helium stiffens the structure and changes its phase behavior. At room temperature, complete filling of the structure with helium does not occur until >1.5 GPa. On compression, a cubic perovskite structure is maintained until ~5 GPa. As the pressure was increased to ~9.5 GPa, a further transition occurred at ~7 GPa. The first transition at ~5 GPa is likely to a tetragonal (P4/mbm) perovskite, but the detailed structure of the perovskite phase formed on compression above ~7 GPa is unclear. Cooling down from 300 to 100 K in helium at ~0.4 GPa leads to an approximate composition of He 0.1 ScF 3 . High pressure neutron diffraction measurements, in the temperature range 15–150 K show that the incorporation of helium increases the pressure at which the cubic (Pm3̅m) to rhombohedral (R3̅c) putative quantum structural phase transition occurs from close to 0 GPa to ~0.2 GPa at 0 K.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Proposed Common Model of Multi-phase Strength and Equation of State for a Tri-laboratory Collaboration (Working Draft 1.1)

The proposed simple common model for multiphase strength and EoS (CMMP) is meant to be sufficiently simple that each of the collaborating labs can share in a common starting point. Another objective is to start with relatively simple assumptions, which will not necessarily capture details of the physical processes, and incrementally add complexity in order to identify the minimal-needed technical detail. Through this co-evolution of model and experiment, we will better learn the importance of various theoretical approximations and where to invest future resources in experiment and model development. This simple framework is based on pressure and temperature equilibrium of all co-existing phases combined with deviatoric stress averaging through a volume fraction weighted ow stress and a volume fraction weighted shear modulus. Implementations of the framework based on equilibrium phase fractions (i.e. instantaneous kinetic rate) and for finite rate transition kinetics are proposed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scenario storyline discovery for complex multi-actor human-natural systems

This poster was presented at the AGU Fall Meeting 2024. Abstract:Scenario analysis is a useful tool for assessing the impacts of future conditions or alternative strategies. However, the common practice of focusing on a small number of predetermined scenarios can limit our understanding of key uncertainties, and fail to represent diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by simulating a wide range of possible futures and system perspectives. A challenge with these approaches is that they often involve large ensemble experiments which limit interpretability and usability. We recently introduced the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced ``forensic''), a scenario discovery framework that helps users identify scenario storylines that capture key system dynamics and as well as important outcomes. In this poster presentation, we present training materials to support the generalizable application of the framework to other multi-actor systems with complex dynamics. Specifically, we will present a step-by-step methodological typology of tools and methods that can be used to generate and classify plausible states of the world on key metrics and consequential dynamics. The typology will also discuss potential implications of these choices and their applicability to different systems.

Colorado River↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automation of Vulnerability and Patch Management: Information Extraction, Association, and Optimization

Vulnerability and patch management is an integral part of a robust cybersecurity program, yet it grows increasingly complex due to the sheer amount of data that must be analyzed. Particularly in Operational Technology (OT) environments, analysis must be done manually because of the lack of automated solutions. Additionally, there are many steps in this process, from the initial discovery of the vulnerability to the implementation of its remediation, and each step in the process requires different data in order to be performed effectively. In this work, we provide approaches and strategies to assist operators in industrial or OT environments throughout the vulnerability management cycle. Security advisories provide key information about mitigation strategies, or actions that can be taken when a patch is unavailable or cannot be installed. Details of these strategies are not shared in public vulnerability databases and must be found manually. We approach this problem by designing a solution to automatically identify that information within vendor security advisories and retrieve it for operator use. We start with an approach that requires domain-specific knowledge of certain frequently-seen reference websites. Next, an approach that can work on an arbitrary website but relies on certain keywords. Finally, an approach that uses Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods and does not require specific knowledge or keywords. Each of these approaches is more general than its predecessor; we demonstrate high accuracy for all approaches Advisories also often contain details of affected products in non-standard or natural language formats. While this information can be easily understood when read by an operator, the non-standard format acts as a barrier to effective automation. We provide an approach for the first step in this process: identifying vendors in security advisories and mapping them to a standard framework for representing digital assets and software products. We evaluate five established string similarity algorithms, plus one of our own design that combines string similarity and information theory, on the task of mapping vendors to their corresponding entries in the Common Platform Enumeration (CPE) repository. Our results show that our proposed metric outperforms all others. Due to the constraints on time, finances, and personnel for organizations, Large Language Models (LLMs) may seem like attractive opportunities for security operators to speed up information gathering; however, it is still not clear whether LLMs can handle vulnerability management tasks well. To answer this question, we perform an empirical study of LLMs’ ability to provide consistent, accurate information about vulnerabilities in order to guide organizations in their adoption of LLMs. We observe poor performance for all models tested, suggesting that these models are not well-suited to the consistent retrieval of accurate vulnerability information. Finally, once vulnerabilities have been identified and any additional information has been obtained, operators must decide which remediation actions to implement based on their available resources. This already-complex problem becomes even more so when we consider that a vulnerability may have multiple avenues for remediation. We formulate this scenario as two knapsack problems and provide solutions, which we then compare against several existing strategies for vulnerability prioritization seen in real operational environments.

McClanahan, Kylie↗

DOE OSTI2025

The discriminant power of bubble wall velocities: gravitational waves and electroweak baryogenesis

A precise determination of the bubble wall velocity v$_{w}$ is crucial for making accurate predictions of the baryon asymmetry and gravitational wave (GW) signals in models of electroweak baryogenesis (EWBG). Working in the local thermal equilibrium approximation, we exploit entropy conservation to present efficient algorithms for computing v$_{w}$, significantly streamlining the calculation. We then explore the parameter dependencies of v$_{w}$, focusing on two sample models capable of enabling a strong first-order electroweak phase transition: a ℤ$_{2}$-symmetric singlet extension of the SM, and a model for baryogenesis with CP violation in the dark sector. We study correlations among v$_{w}$ and the two common measures of phase transition strength, α$_{n}$ and v$_{n}$/T$_{n}$. Interestingly, we find a relatively model-insensitive relationship between v$_{n}$/T$_{n}$ and α$_{n}$. We also observe an upper bound on α$_{n}$ for the deflagration/hybrid wall profiles naturally compatible with EWBG, the exact value for which varies between models, significantly impacting the strength of the GW signals. In summary, our work provides a framework for exploring the feasibility of EWBG models in light of future GW signals.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of uncertainty-aware equation-of-state models: Application to copper

Sophisticated hydrodynamic codes are commonly used to understand and predict events relevant to natural and applied sciences. The degree to which these simulations reflect reality, however, is dependent on how well we understand the materials and underlying physics involved. These research communities need material models that communicate the uncertainty in the physical properties, which at their basest form comes from the uncertainty in the underlying experimental measurements. Additionally, we have constructed a new framework for using both experimental measurements and the associated experimental uncertainties to build equation-of-state models that reflect not only current best measurements but also the accuracy of those measurements. This method had been used to construct an ensemble of equation-of-state models for copper that communicates the experimental uncertainties in the data through the equation-of-state model, which is available for application in any simulation metric of interest.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of Integrated Thermal Fluids Modeling Capability for MSRs

The DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program supports a full range of computational thermal fluids analysis capabilities and code developments for a broad class of light-water and advanced reactor concepts. The research and development approach under thermal fluids technical area synergistically combines three length and time scales in a hierarchal multi-scale approach. To demonstrate the feasibility and capabilities of a multi-scale thermal fluids capability using these codes, a key joint effort has been pursued to develop an integrated system-and engineering-scale thermal fluids analysis capability with the MOOSE-based codes, through integration of SAM and Pronghorn, both based on the MOOSE framework. This report summarizes the progress in developing an integrated system- and engineering-scale thermal fluids analysis capability based on SAM and Pronghorn for molten salt reactors (MSRs), which gained significant interest in recently years. Two coupling approaches were studied, i.e. separate domain or domain-segregated coupling approach and the domain-overlapping approach. A series of coupled multi-physics models have been developed for a common reference molten salt fast reactor (MSFR) concept, ranging from standalone SAM system model to integrated SAM-Pronghorn-Griffin models. Both the steady state and the transient simulations are performed to the state-of-the-art simulation capabilities of NEAMS software suite in MSFR system applications. This report also covers further development and testing of the gas transport model in SAM for MSR modeling support. The presence of noncondensable gas in MSR systems would have strong impacts on fission gas removal and transport of noble metals throughout the system. Fission products removed through the off-gas system can also impact reactivity and can act as an additional point of heat removal. To ensure that the gas transport model is adequately tested, the supported modeling capabilities and features of SAM were identified, and a suite of tests were developed to test the model for each identified feature. Validation and UQ testing were also performed for the model and demonstrated that the buoyancy term, which was originally developed using non-salt/helium gas experimental data, can capture the experimental gas bubble velocity and diameter to within experimental and code uncertainty. An existing MSRE model was also modified in this work to include the gas transport model and to demonstrate the gas model behavior for realistic conditions of interest.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Variational multiscale reinforcement learning for discovering reduced order closure models of nonlinear spatiotemporal transport systems

Abstract A central challenge in the computational modeling and simulation of a multitude of science applications is to achieve robust and accurate closures for their coarse-grained representations due to underlying highly nonlinear multiscale interactions. These closure models are common in many nonlinear spatiotemporal systems to account for losses due to reduced order representations, including many transport phenomena in fluids. Previous data-driven closure modeling efforts have mostly focused on supervised learning approaches using high fidelity simulation data. On the other hand, reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful yet relatively uncharted method in spatiotemporally extended systems. In this study, we put forth a modular dynamic closure modeling and discovery framework to stabilize the Galerkin projection based reduced order models that may arise in many nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamical systems with quadratic nonlinearity. However, a key element in creating a robust RL agent is to introduce a feasible reward function, which can be constituted of any difference metrics between the RL model and high fidelity simulation data. First, we introduce a multi-modal RL to discover mode-dependant closure policies that utilize the high fidelity data in rewarding our RL agent. We then formulate a variational multiscale RL (VMRL) approach to discover closure models without requiring access to the high fidelity data in designing the reward function. Specifically, our chief innovation is to leverage variational multiscale formalism to quantify the difference between modal interactions in Galerkin systems. Our results in simulating the viscous Burgers equation indicate that the proposed VMRL method leads to robust and accurate closure parameterizations, and it may potentially be used to discover scale-aware closure models for complex dynamical systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Human limits in machine learning: prediction of potato yield and disease using soil microbiome data

Abstract Background The preservation of soil health is a critical challenge in the 21st century due to its significant impact on agriculture, human health, and biodiversity. We provide one of the first comprehensive investigations into the predictive potential of machine learning models for understanding the connections between soil and biological phenotypes. We investigate an integrative framework performing accurate machine learning-based prediction of plant performance from biological, chemical, and physical properties of the soil via two models: random forest and Bayesian neural network. Results Prediction improves when we add environmental features, such as soil properties and microbial density, along with microbiome data. Different preprocessing strategies show that human decisions significantly impact predictive performance. We show that the naive total sum scaling normalization that is commonly used in microbiome research is one of the optimal strategies to maximize predictive power. Also, we find that accurately defined labels are more important than normalization, taxonomic level, or model characteristics. ML performance is limited when humans can’t classify samples accurately. Lastly, we provide domain scientists via a full model selection decision tree to identify the human choices that optimize model prediction power. Conclusions Our study highlights the importance of incorporating diverse environmental features and careful data preprocessing in enhancing the predictive power of machine learning models for soil and biological phenotype connections. This approach can significantly contribute to advancing agricultural practices and soil health management.

Aghdam, Rosa↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Framework for Performance Evaluation and Design Optimization of PCM Embedded Heat Exchangers for the Built Environment

This research sheds light on the performance evaluation and design optimization of PCM-HXs for the built environment, addressing several barriers to practical issues to PCM-HX commercialization such as modeling aspects (i.e., modeling expertise and computational / time investment, etc.), manufacturing aspects (i.e., at-scale manufacturing, cost assessments, etc.) and experimental performance assessment (i.e., reliable experimental data, assessment of multiple PCM-working fluid combinations, etc.). We present a novel, comprehensive, and experimentally-validated design optimization framework for PCM-HXs capable of simulating any PCM-HX geometry with reasonable accuracy and significant computational time savings when compared to traditional CFD-based design practices. The framework was validated for a wide range of PCM-HX configurations, including a design optimization for a domestic hot water heater application where TES partially replaces electrical heating input. The resulting PCM-HXs were found to deliver 34-68% of the total daily hot water supply with only 5-10% package volume increase from the water heater, thus within U.S. DOE targets for TES systems. To identify the most promising HXs for PCM applications, first-order geometry and cost analyses were conducted based on off-the-shelf HX products. As part of this work, 9 PCM-HX prototypes were manufactured using additive and conventional manufacturing methods. Detailed economy-of-scale assessments were conducted for the most promising PCM-HXs and were found to have a good outlook for the next 5-10 years. The PCM-HX design optimization framework was validated through comprehensive in-house experimental testing using newly-developed PCM-to-fluid test facilities. In total,10 total in-house component-level experiments were conducted using these prototypes, including 9 with water and 1 with refrigerant (R410A) as the working fluid. It was found that the framework can successfully predict experimental thermal-hydraulic performance within ±10-20% the first time without manual design changes, eliminating the need for time-consuming and expensive prototyping efforts as part of the design process. As part of this work, a publicly-available PCM web tool was released which includes a PCM property database (531 PCMs) and PCM-HX modeling tool to assist the design community on common PCM-HX use-cases, e.g., single/multiple flow path(s) fluid-to-PCM and air-to-fluid-to-PCM configurations (https://ceeeweb.umd.edu/pcmapp/). This work will accelerate the design and time to market for next generation PCM-HXs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗