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Results for “Capacity Expansion Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Non-equilibrium insertion of lithium ions into graphite

Graphite has been regarded as the most important anode material for currently used lithium-ion batteries due to its two-dimensional (2D) nature hosting ionic intercalations. However, the kinetic insertion of Li ions is still not well known microscopically. In this work, we investigate the real-time intercalation process of Li ions using in situ transmission electron microscopy. We observe the lithium insertion process at the atomic scale, in which the graphite layers undergo expansion, forming wrinkles and finally inhomogeneous cracks as the Li ions accumulate, different from the proposed models. Leveraging on theoretical simulations, Li-ion migration driven by an external electrical field is suggested to be induced into the irreversible wrinkled structures. This non-equilibrium behavior that occur in lithium-ion batteries can be more pronounced at a high charging rate, which will practically degrade the capacity of graphite. Furthermore, this work unveils the reaction scenario of the non-equilibrium Li-ion insertion, which benefits the understanding of the performance of graphite-based energy-storage devices.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling nuclear energy’s future role in decarbonized energy systems

Increased attention has been focused on the potential role of nuclear energy in future electricity markets and energy systems as stakeholders target rapid and deep decarbonization and reductions in fossil fuel use. This paper examines models of electric sector planning and broader energy systems optimization to understand the prospective roles of nuclear energy and other technologies. In this perspective, we survey modeling challenges in this environment, illustrate opportunities to propagate best practices, and highlight insights from the deep decarbonization literature on the range of visions for nuclear energy's role. Nuclear energy deployment is highest with combinations of stringent emissions policies, nuclear cost reductions, and constraints on the deployment of other technologies, which underscores model dimensions related to these areas. New modeling capabilities are needed to adequately address emerging issues, including representing characteristics and applications of nuclear energy in systems models, and to ensure the relevance of models for policy and planning as deeper decarbonization is explored.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Anharmonic thermodynamic properties and phase boundary across the postperovskite transition in MgSi O 3

To address the effects of lattice anharmonicity across the perovskite to postperovskite transition in MgSiO 3 , we conduct calculations using the phonon quasiparticle (PHQ) approach. The PHQ is based on abinitio molecular dynamics and, in principle, captures full anharmonicity. Free energies in the thermodynamic limit (N → ∞) are computed using temperature-dependent quasiparticle dispersions within the phonon gas model. Systematic results on anharmonic thermodynamic properties and phase boundary are reported. Both the local density approximation and the generalized gradient approximation calculations are performed to provide confident constraints on these properties. Anharmonic effects are demonstrated by comparing results with those obtained using the quasiharmonic approximation (QHA). The inadequacy of the QHA is indicated by its overestimation of thermal expansivity and thermodynamic Grüneisen parameter and its converged isochoric heat capacity in the high-temperature limit. The PHQ phase boundary has a Clapeyron slope (dP/dT) that increases with temperature. This result contrasts with the nearly zero curvature of the QHA phase boundary. Anharmonicity bends the phase boundary to lower temperatures at high pressures. Implications for the double-crossing of the phase boundary by the mantle geotherm are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Property Measurements of NaCl-UCl 3 and NaCl-KCl-UCl 3 Molten Salts (Rev.1)

Thermochemical and thermophysical property values of several salt compositions of interest are needed by molten salt reactor (MSR) developers to design, license, and operate their reactors. Thermochemical and thermophysical properties being measured at Argonne include thermal transitions, phase behavior, heat capacity, density, volumetric thermal expansion of the liquid phase, thermal diffusivity, thermal conductivity, and viscosity. Several properties of eutectic compositions in the ternary NaCl-KCl-UCl 3 and binary NaCl-UCl 3 systems that may be used by MSR developers as fuel bearing salts are being measured. A 65.8 mol % NaCl–34.2 mol % UCl 3 mixture and a near-eutectic mixture of 50.9 mol % NaCl–24.4 mol % KCl–24.7 mol % UCl 3 were synthesized and the thermochemical properties of the mixtures were measured by using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The measured transition temperatures were compared to transition temperatures predicted using two models. A thermodynamic model of the binary NaCl-UCl 3 system was constructed using data in the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database–Thermochemical Version 2.0 (MSTDB-TC V2.0). A ternary NaClKCl-UCl 3 system model constructed at Argonne and was described in a previous report. These comparisons can be used to validate the models. Thermophysical property values of molten salts are needed to model how salt retains and transfers heat in an MSR system. These property values are essential to the entire MSR design because molten salt is used as both the fuel and the coolant material in a salt fueled reactor. Heat capacity of the synthesized NaCl-UCl 3 and NaCl-KCl-UCl 3 salt mixtures was measured by using DSC and thermal diffusivity was measured by using laser flash analysis (LFA) at temperatures spanning the typical operating range of an MSR.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

First principles calculations in support of Pu aging: calculating the effects of lattice imperfections on thermodynamics

Plutonium (Pu) has, in theory, well defined crystal structures: its atoms are arranged in regular spatial patterns. But Pu is radioactive, and as its nuclei decay those regular spatial patterns are interrupted. The interruptions are lattice imperfections, which are known to affect how materials respond to their environment. To adequately model Pu, we need to know which lattice imperfections are present, how they interact with each other, and how they affect the material’s response to its environment. The work presented here aims to use density functional theory (DFT) calculations to begin to answer the latter, in particular, how individual lattice imperfections affect measurable effects including thermal expansion (the change in volume in response to a change in temperature), heat capacity (the amount of thermal energy needed to change a material’s temperature), and elastic moduli (a material’s resistance to applied stresses). Pu poses many computational challenges. The $\textit{f}$ electrons require special attention. Of all the elements, Pu has the largest number of electrons that must be included in the calculations. Thermal effects require calculating the phonons (the lattice vibrations), which for systems containing lattice imperfections demand large, complex computational cells - but computational resources limit the size and complexity. With careful restructuring of how the calculations are performed, all these challenges have been met to enable calculations that provide insight into how lattice imperfections affect Pu’s response to its environment. Reported here are the computational challenges and the advances developed to meet them, along with the first results showing the strong effect that one prototype lattice imperfection (an interstitial Pu atom in a delta-phase Pu lattice) has on Pu’s response to its environment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Repowering: The Other Side of the Reliability Coin

Extreme weather, cracked backsheets, severe PID, poorly built modules, and installation flaws - all can compromise a solar plant's health and force repowering long before end of life. With more than 70% of U.S. PV capacity less than seven years old, the fleet is young, but its rapid expansion has introduced new materials and system designs that are still being tested under real-world conditions. As a result, reliability - not economics - is what most often drives repowering decisions. Repowering is frequently assumed to be an economically motivated choice, but our work shows that reliability concerns are the real trigger. Drawing from industry interviews, case studies, and modeling, we highlight the physical, electrical, and policy barriers owners face when deciding whether to repair, repower, or decommission. At the same time, repowering can create opportunities: renewed interconnection periods, improved energy yields, and strategic upgrades to extend system value. We present a quantitative framework using NLR's System Advisor Model (SAM) and PV in Circular Economy (PV ICE) tool to evaluate trade-offs across financial, material, and energy impacts. These findings provide practical guidance for navigating the realities of repowering today and underscore the critical role of reliability in shaping the future performance and sustainability of the PV fleet.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

The critical role of intrinsic defects and many-body interactions on the stability of MnBi2Te4

Intrinsic antisite defects pose a major challenge to understanding and predicting the exotic properties of the layered topological magnetic insulator MnBi2Te4 (MBT). In this work, we study the origin of the abundance of intrinsic defects in MBT, including many-body defect–defect interactions and many-body electronic correlations. Until now, ab initio methods have struggled to explain thermodynamic stability and properties influenced by defect behavior in MBT. We model native Mn–Bi antisite defects in MBT at finite temperatures using a cluster expansion that includes defect–defect interactions. To overcome the limitations of conventional density functional theory (DFT), we introduce a hybrid approach that incorporates high-accuracy quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) calculations, introducing missing correlations. This strategy allows for accurate estimation of defect energetics and finite-temperature properties. We compute the configurational free energy, defect concentration, and configurational heat capacity, revealing a second-order order–disorder phase transition near the experimental synthesis temperature. Our study provides the first theoretical insight into the thermodynamics of intrinsic defects in MBT. The negative free energy relative to pristine MBT at synthesis temperatures indicates that Mn–Bi antisite formation is thermodynamically spontaneous. We also present a broadly applicable general framework for correcting low-level theoretical theories using highly accurate many-body corrections from QMC.

Ghaffar, Abdul [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000241190168)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding Reentrance in Frustrated Magnets: The Case of the Er 2 Sn 2 O 7 Pyrochlore

Reentrance, the return of a system from an ordered phase to a previously encountered less-ordered one as a controlled parameter is continuously varied, is a recurring theme found in disparate physical systems, yet its microscopic cause is often not investigated thoroughly. Here, through detailed characterization and theoretical modeling, we uncover the microscopic mechanism behind reentrance in the strongly frustrated pyrochlore antiferromagnet Er 2 Sn 2 O 7 . We use single crystal heat capacity measurements to expose that Er 2 Sn 2 O 7 exhibits multiple instances of reentrance in its magnetic field B vs temperature T phase diagram for magnetic fields along three cubic high symmetry directions. Through classical Monte Carlo simulations, mean field theory, and classical linear spin-wave expansions, we argue that the origins of the multiple occurrences of reentrance observed in Er 2 Sn 2 O 7 are linked to soft modes. These soft modes arise from phase competition and enhance thermal fluctuations that entropically stabilize a specific ordered phase, resulting in an increased transition temperature for certain field values and thus the reentrant behavior. Our work represents a detailed examination into the mechanisms responsible for reentrance in a frustrated magnet and may serve as a template for the interpretation of reentrant phenomena in other physical systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the impacts of natural gas power generation growth on solar electricity development: PJM's evolving resource mix and ramping capability

Abstract Expansion of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and natural gas‐fired generation capacity in the United States has put a renewed spotlight on methods and tools for power system planning and grid modernization. This article investigates the impact of increasing natural gas‐fired electricity generation assets on installed distributed solar PV systems in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) Interconnection in the United States over the period 2008–2018. We developed an empirical dynamic panel data model using the system‐generalized method of moments (system‐GMM) estimation approach. The model accounts for the impact of past and current technical, market and policy changes over time, forecasting errors, and business cycles by controlling for PJM jurisdictions‐level effects and year fixed effects. Using an instrumental variable to control for endogeneity, we concluded that natural gas does not crowd out renewables like solar PV in the PJM capacity market; however, we also found considerable heterogeneity. Such heterogeneity was displayed in the relationship between solar PV systems and electricity prices. More interestingly, we found no evidence suggesting any relationship between distributed solar PV development and nuclear, coal, hydro, or electricity consumption. In addition, considering policy effects of state renewable portfolio standards, net energy metering, differences in the PJM market structure, and other demand and cost‐related factors proved important in assessing their impacts on solar PV generation capacity, including energy storage as a non‐wire alternative policy technique. This article is categorized under: Photovoltaics > Economics and Policy Fossil Fuels > Climate and Environment Energy Systems Economics > Economics and Policy

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Risk assessment of wellbore leakage during underground hydrogen storage

The expansion of renewable energy sources would require large-scale energy storage options to overcome the intermittent nature of these sources. Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs offers a scalable and practical energy storage solution. These reservoirs are chosen for their availability and large capacity, but the unique properties of hydrogen raise concerns about potential leakage pathways, particularly through wellbores. In this study, we develop and apply, for the first time, reduced-order models (ROMs) specifically designed for efficient leakage risk prediction in UHS systems operating in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. Using 3,000 high-fidelity simulation scenarios, we examine the influence of 11 key parameters, including reservoir and aquifer depths, wellbore permeability and porosity, initial saturations of water, oil and gas fractions (hydrogen, light, intermediate, and heavy hydrocarbons), reservoir pressure multiplier, and the aquifer-to-reservoir volume ratio, to simulate leakage behavior over a 1,000-year timescale. We train ROMs using a two-step classification-regression approach, achieving R 2 values exceeding 99 % across all targets. These ROMs effectively capture the leakage evolution and identify critical controls of leakage, guiding the design of mitigation strategies. Results indicate that gas leakage occurs in about 27 % of scenarios as early as five years post-operation, reaching volumes of up to 106 ft3. Oil leakage is less frequent (~17 %) and typically begins decades later. Our findings also show that hydrogen often migrates first, owing to its smaller molecular size and higher buoyancy, followed by heavier hydrocarbons. Over time, these heavier components contribute significantly to the total leaked volume, reinforcing the need for targeted monitoring and remediation strategies. Our analysis highlights that deeper storage reservoirs, shallower aquifers, and low-permeability wellbores significantly reduce leakage risks. In conclusion, this work offers a robust framework for risk-informed UHS deployment, supporting energy security through reliable large-scale hydrogen storage while safeguarding environmental integrity.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

The role of nuclear in China’s energy future: insights from integrated assessment

China, the world’s largest electricity consumer, has strong motivations to deploy nuclear power due to increasing electricity demand and environmental concerns. However, there are social, institutional, and technical barriers to future nuclear expansion. This paper provides an updated assessment of nuclear energy potential in China with analyses at both national and provincial levels and compares results with studies previously conducted. Using an integrated assessment model, this paper considers the interactions among different socioeconomic development pathways, technology options, climate policies, and social/political concerns on inland siting. Among all factors explored, climate policies have the most significant impact on accelerating the deployment of nuclear technologies. Inland siting of nuclear power plants increases total capacity, but the impact is limited without climate policy. The amount of annual nuclear generation across scenarios and studies is unlikely to rise above 11% by 2030 and 30% by 2050 of total Chinese electricity generation. A dramatic increase in total Chinese nuclear energy generating capacity – around 3900 TWh of nuclear generation by 2050 – is only possible in scenarios where China sees electricity demand increase substantially, sticks to and tightens its current Paris Accord commitments, achieves low costs of nuclear technologies, and allows inland siting of nuclear power plants.

China, integrated assesment, Nuclear Power Plants↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-Temperature Thermodynamics of Uranium from Ab Initio Modeling

We present high-temperature thermodynamic properties for uranium in its γ phase (γ-U) from first-principles, relativistic, and anharmonic theory. The results are compared to CALPHAD modeling. The ab initio electronic structure is obtained from density-functional theory (DFT) that includes spin–orbit coupling and an added self-consistent orbital-polarization (OP) mechanism for more accurate treatment of magnetism. The first-principles method is coupled to a lattice dynamics scheme that is used to model anharmonic lattice vibrations, namely, Self-Consistent Ab Initio Lattice Dynamics (SCAILD). The methodology can be summarized in the acronym DFT + OP + SCAILD. Upon thermal expansion, γ-U develops non-negligible magnetic moments that are included for the first time in thermodynamic theory. The all-electron DFT approach is shown to model γ-U better than the commonly used pseudopotential method. In addition to CALPHAD, DFT + OP + SCAILD thermodynamic properties are compared with other ab initio and semiempirical modeling and experiments. Our first-principles approach produces Gibbs free energy that is essentially identical to CALPHAD. The DFT + OP + SCAILD heat capacity is close to CALPHAD and most experimental data and is predicted to have a significant thermal dependence due to the electronic contribution.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Vehicle-to-Grid planning framework incorporating electric vehicle user equilibrium and distribution network flexibility enhancement

The rapid surge in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, coupled with advancements in charging technologies, emphasizes the critical necessity for expanding EV recharging infrastructure. Simultaneously, the Distribution Network (DN) encounters escalating challenges in meeting charging demand during peak traffic periods. Consequently, there is a mounting demand for the deployment of innovative Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technologies to augment the DN’s flexibility in power dispatch and alleviate travel costs for EV users. Hence, this paper proposes an EV-user-equilibrium-(UE)-constrained V2G planning framework that enhances flexibility in the DN. The framework aims to ascertain the optimal placement and capacity of EV charging stations (EVCSs) and V2G charging piles within the Transportation Network (TN). It takes into account the equilibrium condition stemming from competitive EV charging and routing behaviors alongside the optimal expansion of DN energy resources to accommodate the electricity supplied by the V2G piles. This study commences by analyzing EV drivers’ travel decisions, considering the influence of charging and V2G pile locations and sizes. Subsequently, we tackle the Traffic Assignment Problem with User Equilibrium (TAP-UE) model to characterize the steady-state traffic flow distribution of EVs. Following this, we formulate the optimization model for the Coordinated Power and Transportation Network (CPTN), which encompasses the optimal expansion of DN facilities and traffic flow regulation under UE conditions. To mitigate the computational complexity associated with the V2G planning model, we introduce a series of linearization methods to obtain a manageable Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) solution. Finally, to validate the efficacy of our proposed planning framework, we apply it to two test systems, including a real-world case study. Through these case studies, we explore the necessity and potential benefits of V2G technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

PARETO 0.5.0 Release

PARETO 0.5.0 Release. Highlights: Treatment Center Modeling - New case study with desalination, clean brine, and evaporation treatment technologies - New option to reduce disposal capacity due to Seismic Response Areas (SRA) - New option to consider water sharing outside of system General Updates - New features for Sankey Diagram visualization (multiple regions, filtered time periods) - Introduce badges to README.md - Convert documentation to ASCII LaTeX - Code cleaning and maintenance - Correct strategic model documentation typo - Update and format treatment demo input spreadsheet Bug Fixes - Fix water quality operational model results printing bug - Piping and trucking variables are now built only over defined arcs instead of all possible connections - Revise pipeline expansion cost constraints, ensure that all pipelines built incur cost

PARETO,PARETO-UI,PSE,Process Systems Engineering,P↗
DOE OSTI2026

Paleotribological models using preserved fossil tissue properties reveal functional significance of Eurasian mammoth dental evolution

Eurasian mammoths (Mammuthus) underwent substantial modifications in molar morphology as later-diverging species evolved progressively thinner enamel and increased enamel crest complexity. These features have been hypothesized to reduce whole-tooth wear and extend dental longevity as increasingly graze-dominated diets evolved within the lineage. This hypothesis has yet to be directly tested. Here, in this study, we developed an in-silico wear model using experimentally derived wear rates from fossil and extant proboscidean dental tissues. The models revealed that shifts in tissue topology do not affect whole-tooth wear rate, as inverse trends in lamellar frequency and enamel thickness preserve a consistent surface enamel area fraction; the determining factor of wear. Rather, topological shifts produce a wear-emergent secondary occlusal surface with greater numbers of triturating crests that create a regular, low-relief, file-like shearing pavement. These changes in occlusal architecture likely directly impacted the mastication capacity of Mammuthus dentitions, facilitating their dietary expansion to incorporate fibrous, lower-nutrient graze.

Dental wear↗
DOE OSTI2022

Temperature Effects in Flexible Adsorption Processes for Amorphous Microporous Polymers

A collection of atomistic molecular simulations is reported that illustrate the impact of adsorption temperature on species uptake and adsorbate-induced structural rearrangement for amorphous polymers of intrinsic microporosity. Temperature-sensitive structural rearrangement is evaluated by contrasting two methods: standard grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations using a rigid framework approximation and a combined Monte Carlo/molecular dynamics approach that fully incorporates framework flexibility. We report single-component gas phase adsorption isotherms for CH 4 , C 2 H 4 , C 2 H 6 , C 3 H 6 , C 3 H 8 , and CO 2 across a temperature range of 250–400 K for models of an archetypal polymer of intrinsic microporosity, PIM-1. A quadratic model is presented that captures two main mechanisms of temperature-dependent adsorption-induced deformation of PIM-1 up to a relative swelling of 1.15: thermal expansion and an increased propensity to swell as a function of species uptake. Two case studies are reported that highlight the critical role of operating temperature in industrial storage and separation applications. The first study focuses on methane storage and delivery applications using a pressure–temperature swing adsorption application (PTSA). We demonstrate that larger working capacities are accompanied by increased volumetric strain between adsorption–desorption steps. The second case study considers PIM-1 as an adsorbent to separate an exemplar ternary syngas mixture at operating temperatures ranging 300–550 K. Here, a temperature threshold of ~400 K is identified, beyond which adsorption-induced PIM-1 swelling is negligible and the solubility selectivity-loading curve transitions to exhibiting a nearly linear relationship.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting the Pseudocapacitive Windows for MXene Electrodes with Voltage-Dependent Cluster Expansion Models

MXene transition-metal carbides and nitrides are of growing interest for energy storage applications. These compounds are especially promising for use as pseudocapacitive electrodes due to their ability to convert energy electrochemically at fast rates. Using voltage-dependent cluster expansion models, we predict the charge storage performance of MXene pseudocapacitors for a range of electrode compositions. M 3 C 2 O 2 electrodes based on group-VI transition metals have up to 80% larger areal energy densities than prototypical titanium-based (e.g., Ti 3 C 2 O 2 ) MXene electrodes. We attribute this high pseudocapacitance to the Faradaic voltage windows of group-VI MXene electrodes, which are predicted to be 1.2 to 1.8 times larger than those of titanium-based MXenes. The size of the pseudocapacitive voltage window increases with the range of oxidation states that are accessible to the MXene transition metals. Here, by similar mechanisms, the presence of multiple ions in the solvent (Li + and H + ) leads to sharp changes in the transition-metal oxidation states and can significantly increase the charge capacity of MXene pseudocapacitors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sustainable Triacetic Acid Lactone Production from Sugarcane by Fermentation and Crystallization

Triacetic acid lactone (TAL) has the potential to serve as a bioderived platform chemical for commercial products including sorbic acid and recyclable polydiketoenamine plastics. In this study, we leveraged BioSTEAM to design, simulate, and evaluate (via techno-economic analysis, TEA, and life cycle assessment, LCA) TAL production from sugarcane. We experimentally characterized TAL solubility, calibrated solubility models, and designed a process to separate TAL from fermentation broths by crystallization. The biorefinery could produce TAL at a minimum product selling price (MPSP) of $\$3.73$–5.86·kg –1 (5th–95th percentiles; baseline at $\$4.60$·kg –1 ) and a carbon intensity (CI) of 5.31 [2.60–8.71] kg CO 2 -eq·kg –1 , which could enable financially viable, low-CI production of sorbic acid and polydiketoenamines. To drive down costs and CI, we explored the theoretical fermentation space (titer, yield, productivity combinations), operation scheduling and capacity expansion strategies (e.g., integrated sorghum processing), and potential separation improvements (mitigating TAL loss through pH control). Advancements in key design and technological parameters could further reduce MPSP by 51% to $\$2.26$·kg –1 [$\$1.97$–2.80·kg –1 ] and CI by 43% to 3.05 [1.91–4.15] kg CO 2 -eq·kg –1 . This research highlights the ability of agile TEA-LCA to screen promising designs, navigate sustainability trade-offs, prioritize research needs, and chart quantitative roadmaps to advance bioproducts and biofuels.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗