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DOE OSTI2023

Explicitly determined sea ice emissivity and emission temperature over the Arctic for surface–sensitive microwave channels

Data assimilation of satellite microwave measurements is one of the important keys to improving weather forecasting over the Arctic region. However, the use of surface-sensitive microwave-sounding channel measurements for data assimilation or retrieval has been limited, especially during winter, due to the poorly constrained sea ice emissivity. In this study, aiming at more use of those channel measurements in the data assimilation, we propose an explicit method for specifying the surface radiative boundary conditions (namely emissivity and emitting layer temperature of snow and ice). These were explicitly determined with a radiative transfer model for snow and ice and with snow/ice physical parameters (i.e., snow/ice depths and vertical distributions of temperature, density, salinity, and grain size) simulated from the thermodynamically-driven snow/ice growth model. Here we conducted 1-D Var experiments in order to examine whether this approach can help to use the surface-sensitive microwave temperature channel measurements over the Arctic sea ice region for data assimilation. Results show that (1) the surface-sensitive microwave channels can be used in the 1-D Var retrieval, and (2) the specification of the radiative boundary condition at the surface using the snow/sea ice emission model can significantly improve the atmospheric temperature retrieval, especially in the lower troposphere (500 hPa to surface). The successful retrieval suggests that useful information can be extracted from surface-sensitive microwave-sounding channel radiances over sea ice surfaces through the explicit determination of snow/ice emissivity and emitting layer temperature.

1-D Var retrieval↗

DOE OSTI2023

Wigner time delay in photoionization: a 1D model study

Abstract In scattering theory, the Wigner–Smith time delay, calculated through a phaseshift derivative or its multichannel generalization, has been demonstrated to measure the amount of delay or advance experienced by colliding particles during their interaction with the scattering potential. Fetic, Becker, and Milosevic argue that this concept cannot be extended to include photoionization, viewed as a half-scattering experiment. Their argument is based on the lack of information about scattering phaseshifts in the part of the wavefunction (satisfying the ingoing-wave boundary condition) going to the detector. This article aims to test this claim by examining a photodetachment process in a simple 1D model with a short-range symmetrical potential. Using time-dependent perturbation theory with a dipole interaction, the relevant wavepacket of the outgoing particle is analyzed and compared to the free wavepacket as a reference. Our findings confirm that, indeed, a time delay arises in the liberated fragmentation wavepacket, which is expressed as an energy derivative of the scattering phaseshift. Our study highlights that the source of the phaseshift content in the wavepacket arriving at the detector is the dipole matrix element, which is a direct consequence of imposing the ingoing-wave boundary condition. We illustrate our results through numerical simulations of both the non-free and free wavepackets. The amount of the observed time delay is found to be half of that appearing in a typical scattering experiment.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dual-Fuel Ammonia Equivalence Ratio Sweep Data

Ammonia (NH3) has garnered significant interest as an alternative fuel for meeting international emissions reduction mandates in sectors with high weight and distance requirements, such as shipping. Technical barriers and unanswered questions remain on the combustion strategies that can maximize ammonia utilization and minimize emissions. Prior research studies at the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory have shown strong performance with NH3 under dual-fuel mode using conventional diesel combustion (CDC) manifold air pressure settings. Diesel airflow was initially used to simplify retrofitting (no turbocharger modification), which resulted in air-fuel equivalence ratios (λ) greater than 1.5. To characterize potential improvements in dual-fuel NH3 combustion performance at richer in-cylinder conditions, a global λ sweep compared the use of early (E-pilot) and late (L-pilot) single diesel injections. The experiments were conducted at 1200 RPM and 12.8 ± 0.2 bar (75 % load), and λ was varied by decreasing the commanded air flow to the engine at greater than 90 % ammonia energy substitution level. A diesel injection timing sweep was conducted for both the injection strategies at fixed λ, and the timing with the lowest engine-out N2O emissions was identified. The results indicated an optimal balance between CO2,eq and thermal efficiency benefits both E-pilot and L-pilot injection strategy cases compared with CDC at a λ of 1.4. The indicated nitrogen-based emissions exhibited a strong correlation to the ratio of CA5–50 and ignition delay for L-pilot, but no apparent trend emerged for the E-pilot injection strategy at the tested boundary conditions. This dataset includes the raw experimental data and documentation of the experiment conditions and methods.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fourier Neural Networks as Function Approximators and Differential Equation Solvers

We present a Fourier neural network (FNN) that can be mapped directly to the Fourier decomposition. The choice of activation and loss function yields results that replicate a Fourier series expansion closely while preserving a straightforward architecture with a single hidden layer. The simplicity of this network architecture facilitates the integration with any other higher-complexity networks, at a data pre- or postprocessing stage. We validate this FNN on naturally periodic smooth functions and on piecewise continuous periodic functions. We showcase the use of this FNN for modeling or solving partial differential equations with periodic boundary conditions. The main advantages of the current approach are the validity of the solution outside the training region, interpretability of the trained model, and simplicity of use.

Fourier decomposition↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of Precipitation-Strengthening Heat-Resistant Austenitic Stainless Steels for Life-Prediction Modeling

In this study, the role of minor alloying additions in 347H stainless steels (UNS34709, ASTM A240/240M) on creep-rupture properties at 650-750°C and microstructure evolution during isothermal exposure at 750°C has been investigated, aiming to provide the experimental dataset as boundary conditions of physics-based modeling for material/component life prediction. Four different 347H heats containing various amounts of boron and nitrogen additions were prepared and evaluated. The combined additions of B and N are found to stabilize the strengthening secondary M23C6 carbides and retarding the transition from M23C6 to sigma phase precipitates during thermal exposure. The observed kinetics of microstructure evolution reasonably explains the improvement of creep-rupture properties of 347H stainless steels with the B and N additions.

Yamamoto, Yukinori↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hidden fluid mechanics: Learning velocity and pressure fields from flow visualizations

For centuries, flow visualization has been the art of making fluid motion visible in physical and biological systems. Although such flow patterns can be, in principle, described by the Navier-Stokes equations, extracting the velocity and pressure fields directly from the images is challenging. We addressed this problem by developing hidden fluid mechanics (HFM), a physics-informed deep-learning framework capable of encoding the Navier-Stokes equations into the neural networks while being agnostic to the geometry or the initial and boundary conditions. We demonstrate HFM for several physical and biomedical problems by extracting quantitative information for which direct measurements may not be possible.

Raissi, Maziar↗

DOE OSTI2025

Validating corrosion models: A comparison of governing equations

Experimental validation of Finite Element Method (FEM) models varying electrochemical governing equations, inclusion of chemical reactions, and time on the resultant damage profile for two galvanic couples is explored. Two anode materials (Magnesium AZ31 and Carbon Steel) in contact with a cathode (Stainless Steel 304 L) were modeled in/exposed to NaCl (1 and 0.1 M respectively for the anode materials) for up to one week. The physics approach, inclusion of chemical reactions, and the boundary conditions required to accurately represent the damage profile in FEM models depended on the galvanic couple materials and, ultimately, the corrosion rate. For high rates of corrosion (i.e., magnesium anode), the Nernst-Planck equation with Electroneutrality was sufficient to describe the damage, while, for low rates of corrosion (i.e., carbon steel anode), the Laplace equation was sufficient. In all cases, the most complete governing equation (Nernst-Planck-Poisson Equation) was not necessary to accurately describe the damage. Precipitation reactions in solution also played a critical role in the predicted damage profile, especially for high corrosion rate systems. Finally, for short time periods (< 6 h), the choice of governing equations does not significantly influence damage profile results. Overall, the choice of physics to reduce error in simulations relies on the boundary conditions, geometry, conductivity of the solution, electrochemical potential differences, and time of exposure. The above results are discussed with regard to accuracy and computational savings.

Carbon steel↗

DOE OSTI2022

Structural Characterization of a Toppling Rock Slab From Array-Based Ambient Vibration Measurements and Numerical Modal Analysis

Accurate assessments of the internal structure and boundary conditions of unstable rock slopes are imperative for evaluating landslide hazard scenarios. However, instability characterization at depth remains challenging and is often limited by costly or invasive subsurface investigations. Here, we develop a new approach coupling array-based ambient vibration modal analysis and numerical modeling to improve structural characterization of rock slope instabilities at depth. We used ambient noise cross-correlation on 4 hr of seismic data recorded by an array of 30 nodal geophones at a 500-m-long toppling rock slab in Utah, USA to identify modal frequencies between 0.8 and 3.5 Hz and derive modal displacements. We show that transverse and longitudinal bending modes span the length of the instability, indicating an interconnected slab. Further, statistical comparison of field results with outputs from >1,000 finite element models with varying boundary conditions showed that the instability depth varies between 40–70 and 10–20 m in the middle and lateral regions, respectively. Our approach yields new information on the structural conditions of rock cliff and column instabilities at depth, which is not easily obtained by other means but is imperative for change detection monitoring and improved hazard assessments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Finite-size correction for slab supercell calculations of materials with spontaneous polarization

Abstract The repeated slab approach has become a de facto standard to accurately describe surface properties of materials by density functional theory calculations with periodic boundary conditions. For materials exhibiting spontaneous polarization, we show that the conventional scheme of passivation with pseudo hydrogen is unable to realize a charge-neutral surface. The presence of a net surface charge induces via Gauss’s law a macroscopic electric field through the slab and results in poor size convergence with respect to the thickness of the slab. We propose a modified passivation method that accounts for the effect of spontaneous polarization, describes the correct bulk limits and boosts convergence with respect to slab thickness. The robustness, reliability, and superior convergence of energetics and electronic structure achieved by the proposed method are demonstrated using the example of polar ZnO surfaces.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2021

Natively Periodic Fast Multipole Method: Approximating the Optimal Green’s Function

The fast multipole method (FMM) obeys periodic boundary conditions "natively" if it uses a periodic Green's function for computing the multipole expansion in the interaction zone of each FMM oct-tree node. One can define the "optimal" Green's function for such a method that results in the numerical solution that converges to the equivalent particle-mesh (PM) solution in the limit of sufficiently high order of multipoles. A discrete functional equation for the optimal Green's function can be derived, but is not practically useful as methods for its solution are not known. Instead, this paper presents an approximation for the optimal Green's function that is accurate to better than 10 -3 in ${L}_{\mathrm{MAX}}$ norm and 10 -4 in L 2 norm for practically useful multipole counts. Such an approximately optimal Green's function offers a practical way for implementing the FMM with periodic boundary conditions natively, without the need to compute lattice sums or to rely on hybrid FMM-PM approaches.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

FY22 Progress on Computational Modeling of the Water-Based NSTF

This report summarizes the system-level modeling effort by Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) of the Natural convection Shutdown heat removal Test Facility (NSTF) in FY22. As an extension of the effort from FY21, this year’s work focuses primarily on the two-phase modeling of the NSTF using RELAP5-3D, particularly with the inclusion of the cavity model. The results from simulations were used to compare against experimental data for benchmarking purposes of the RELAP5 deck. Additionally, RELAP5 was used as a predictive tool to guide planned test operations and identify expected system behaviors. In the first part of this report, details are provided of the cavity omitted model where heat flux is applied directly as a boundary condition to the risers. The general trend predicted by the RELAP5 model matches that from the experimental data when a single-phase natural circulation flow is first established, followed by an oscillatory two-phase period and finally a stable two-phase flow. However, the onset of oscillations is predicted early by the model due to the smaller thermal mixing region in the tank. However, by expanding the simulated thermal mixing region in the tank, the onset of oscillations predicted by the model is able to match that from the experiment. These oscillations where studied in depth and are deduced to be flashing-induced instability. The model was then modified to simulate an accident scenario case where a representative heat load based on the full-scale Framatome’s 625 MW t SC-HTGR was applied directly to the riser channels. The simulated initial and boundary conditions were identical to those performed experimentally, facilitating direct comparisons between the predicted and experimental results. It was determined that the results showed some discrepancies remain, likely due to the overprediction of vapor generation rate by the computer model. In the second part of this report, the cavity model is re-introduced where it is observed that the RELAP5 prediction is now able to capture the major trends of the observed flow commonly observed during two-phase conditions. However, the onset of oscillations is once again predicted early by the model, possibly caused by the underprediction of heat loss from the heater and cavity. This is likely due to the omission of support structures in the cavity that can act as additional pathways for heat to escape to the environment. To overcome the underprediction of heat loss, part of the insulation surrounding the cavity side panels and the back of the heaters are removed to allow heat to escape directly to the environment, which then improves the RELAP5 prediction. Parametric studies are also performed to investigate the effects of heater power, tank inventory level, and tank gas space pressure on flow behaviors, also in direct comparison to conditions tested experimentally. User option-61 in the RELAP5-3D input deck, which changes the heat transfer coefficient correlations used for calculating the vapor generation, is also investigated where it is found that by enabling the option, the overall duration of oscillations is increased and matches that from the experiment better. The RELAP5 model is further benchmarked with a header inlet- throttling case where it is observed that the prediction from the model fails to capture some major features observed in the experiment. By using a modified loss coefficient curve for the valve, the accuracy of the prediction is improved where most of the major features observed in the experiment are predicted by the model. Lastly, the model is benchmarked with an inventory depletion scenario where it is observed that despite the modeling limitation of RELAP5, the prediction shows good agreement with the experimental data where major trends and features are captured by the model. Future work will see continued development of the current RELAP5-3D input deck of the NSTF to both improve the accuracy of the model’s predictive capability and continuing serving the experimental program. The mutually beneficial relationship between analysis and experimental efforts has become integral to the parent NSTF program, and the greater objective to fully understand and accurately predict the heat removal performance of a full scale RCCS concept.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Q2 Report for FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

This report describes the work and activities carried out towards the completion of each of the following milestones in FY25 Q2: 1. Demonstrate workflow for generating self-consistent CESOL plasma profiles + first wall and divertor loading prediction and generate the CAT plasma and neutron loading needed for further engineering analysis: $\circ$ Run CESOL with BOUT++/Hermes-3 and immersed boundary condition to directly map to wall: • Run BOUT++/Hermes-3 through the IPS workflow to find radial particle and energy diffusivities to match either the Eich or the physics-based scaling of the SOL heat flux width, and • Expand source of first wall heat flux to include charged particles, neutrals, and radiation from the core+edge. 2. Generate medium fidelity parametrized CAD: $\circ$ Develop the TRACER tool to read an existing CAD, regenerate the geometry based on vertex location and connectivity information, define vertex translation and parameters needed for scaling the CAD, and $\circ$ Utilize the FreeGS code to determine CAT PF coil placement, including minimizing the number of coils, coil current, and electromechanical stresses. 3. Utilize plasma loading for engineering analysis: $\circ$ Couple the plasma loading to input for OpenFOAM and demonstrate initial test of thermal analysis of CAT first wall loading with typical DCLL blanket component cooling boundary conditions. 4. Demonstrate nuclear analysis: $\circ$ Apply initial analysis of tritium transport in DCLL blanket by evaluating spatially resolved tritium generation rates, tritium diffusion and convection.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Wind Farm Simulation and Layout Optimization in Complex Terrain: Preprint

This work reports on incorporating complex terrain into wind farm simulations for the purpose of layout optimization. Adding complex terrain boundary conditions to NREL's medium fidelity computational fluid dynamics model, WindSE, produces significant separation, flow curvature, and speedup effects that would otherwise be difficult to capture with lower-fidelity models or a flat-terrain assumption. These flow features, in turn, can significantly impact the optimal turbine array layout. We demonstrate the impact of complex terrain on flow in both an idealized and real-world setting, and discuss modifications to the code that enable gradient-based optimization using terrain-aware adjoint gradients. Through several optimization case studies, we show that the layout optimization process takes advantage of speedup effects on terrain high points, and leverages flow curvature effects that modify wake trajectories. This yields substantial power improvements over gridded layouts, and hints at future research directions in simulation and optimization for wake trajectories in complex terrain.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Block-Structured Adaptive Mesh Framework to Solve Radiation Transfer Equation in Irregular Embedded Geometries

Radiation transport arises in various scientific, industrial, and medical fields, and understanding its effect in applications is needed to make accurate predictions, safety assessments and performance optimizations. Solving the Radiation Transport Equation (RTE) is challenging due to its integro-differential nature, which involves both differential and integral terms. The differential term describes the change in radiation intensity due to absorption and emission, while the integral term accounts for scattering. The accurate modeling of radiation is further complicated in many applications due to the complex, irregular geometries. Various methods exist for solving the RTE, including the zonal, Monte Carlo, spherical harmonics, discrete ordinates, and finite volume methods. Traditional mesh-based approaches, which rely on structured or unstructured meshes, struggle with irregular geometries due to: a) the difficulty of conforming structured grids to irregular domains, b) challenges in enforcing boundary conditions correctly, and c) the additional computational cost of unstructured mesh methods. This work presents a second-order accurate method for solving the RTE in irregular geometries. The radiation intensity is discretized using the finite-volume method in both spatial and angular directions on regular Cartesian grid blocks. Leveraging the block-structured adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) framework provided by AMReX, our method refines the grid locally to reduce spatial discretization error, ensuring a converged numerical solution while minimizing computational costs elsewhere. A two-stage deferred correction approach is employed: First, a first-order discretization on grid blocks is solved using an algebraic multigrid method in HYPRE. Second, a correction term is applied explicitly to achieve second-order accuracy. The correction term is calculated by approximating the radiation flux on cell faces using a Total Variation Diminishing (TVD) scheme. This approach ensures quick convergence of the multigrid method while preserving higher-order accuracy of the numerical solution. Irregular geometries are resolved as embedded boundaries (EB), resulting in both cut cells and regular cells. In cut cells, we modify the fluxes using face fractions and incorporate additional contributions from EB boundary conditions. To ensure higher-order convergence near the EB interface, the correction term is modified by interpolating the radiation intensity to fictitious ghost points. The implementation takes advantage of modern supercomputers by leveraging AMReX’sMPI/X parallelization strategy where X can be MPI or a GPU accelerator including CUDA, HIP and DPC++. We validate our solver using classical test cases, both with and without EB, demonstrating accuracy and efficiency. Additionally, we analyze the impact of adaptive mesh refinement on solution accuracy and computational cost, highlighting the advantages of our approach for high-resolution radiation transport simulations.

computational fluid dynamics (CFD)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Higher-order particle representation for particle-in-cell simulations

In this paper we present an alternative approach to the representation of simulation particles for unstructured electrostatic and electromagnetic PIC simulations. In our modified PIC algorithm we represent particles as having a smooth shape function limited by some specified finite radius, r 0 . A unique feature of our approach is the representation of this shape by surrounding simulation particles with a set of virtual particles with delta shape, with fixed offsets and weights derived from Gaussian quadrature rules and the value of r 0 . As the virtual particles are purely computational, they provide the additional benefit of increasing the arithmetic intensity of traditionally memory bound particle kernels. The modified algorithm is implemented within Sandia National Laboratories' unstructured EMPIRE-PIC code, for electrostatic and electromagnetic simulations, using periodic boundary conditions. We show results for a representative set of benchmark problems, including electron orbit, a transverse electromagnetic wave propagating through a plasma, numerical heating, and a plasma slab expansion. In this work, good error reduction across all of the chosen problems is achieved as the particles are made progressively smoother, with the optimal particle radius appearing to be problem-dependent.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Flexible and Modular Simultaneous Modeling of Flow and Reactive Transport in Rivers and Hyporheic Zones

Investigations of coupled multiphysics processes in rivers and hyporheic zones have extensively used numerical models. Most existing models use a sequential, one-way coupling between the surface and subsurface domains. Such one-way coupling potentially introduces error. To overcome this, a fully coupled model, hyporheicFoam, was developed using the open-source computational platform OpenFOAM. It captures the coupled flow and multicomponent reactive transport processes within both surface and subsurface domains and across their interface. The coupling between two domains is implemented by mapping conservative flux boundary conditions at the interface through an iterative algorithm. Reactive transport is enabled by specifying a reaction network. To start, we have implemented reaction kinetics following the double Monod-type model with inhibition. The model capability is illustrated through modeling of both conservative and reactive hyporheic flow and transport through dune bedforms. With the novel coupled model, it is now possible to quantify reactions wherein the reactants and products are constantly exchanging between domains and have feedbacks. hyporheicFoam can simulate large, three-dimensional cases owing to the computational flexibility and power offered by the code structure and parallel design of OpenFOAM.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Material Interactions in Severe Accidents – Benchmarking the MELCOR V2.2 Eutectics Model for a BWR-3 Mark-I Station Blackout: Part II – Uncertainty Analysis

Single case comparisons between severe accident simulations can provide detailed insights into severe accident model behavior, however, they cannot offer insights into model uncertainty, sensitivity to uncertain parameters, or underlying model biases.Here in this analysis, the single case benchmark comparison of the MELCOR material interaction models for a station blackout (SBO) scenario of a boiling water reactor (BWR) using representative Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 boundary conditions is expanded to include an uncertainty analysis. As part of this uncertainty analysis, 1200 simulations are performed for each material interaction model (2400 total), with random sampling of 14 uncertain MELCOR input parameters. Input parameters are selected for their impact on models representing core degradation processes. These include candling, fuel rod failure, debris quenching and dryout. The analysis performed here is not a traditional “best-estimate” uncertainty analysis that uses best-estimate parameters or identifies best-estimate figure of merit distributions. Instead, it is an exploratory uncertainty analysis that identifies and interrogates underlying model form biases of the two material interaction models (eutectics and interactive materials models). Uniform distributions are applied to all uncertain parameters to ensure coverage of the model parameter uncertainty space. Key findings from this study include underlying model form biases exhibited by material interaction models, and notable differences in accident progression outcomes between the material interaction models. This uncertainty study extends and confirms the conclusions from the first part of this study, which compared the impact of material interaction modeling on simulation of a short-term station blackout scenario with representative Fukushima Daiichi Unit I boundary conditions. In particular, this study confirms that the eutectics model generally exhibits accelerated degradation and failure of fuel components, the core plate, and the lower head. The eutectics model also has a tendency to exhibit a greater degree of core degradation, greater debris mass formation, and larger debris mass ejection. Finally, the eutectics model exhibits higher maximum temperatures for fuel, cladding, particulate debris, oxidic molten pool, and metallic molten pool components than the interactive materials model; interactive materials model simulations exhibit a soft “limitation” on maximum temperatures that is related to the temperature at which material relocation occurs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?

Abstract. A 15-member ensemble of convection-permitting regional simulations of the fast-moving and destructive derecho of 29–30 June 2012 that impacted the northeastern urban corridor of the USA is presented. This event generated 1100 reports of damaging winds, generated significant wind gusts over an extensive area of up to 500 000 km2, caused several fatalities, and resulted in widespread loss of electrical power. Extreme events such as this are increasingly being used within pseudo-global-warming experiments to examine the sensitivity of historical, societally important events to global climate non-stationarity and how they may evolve as a result of changing thermodynamic and dynamic contexts. As such it is important to examine the fidelity with which such events are described in hindcast experiments. The regional simulations presented herein are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The resulting ensemble is used to explore simulation fidelity relative to observations for wind gust magnitudes, spatial scales of convection (as is manifest in high composite reflectivity, cREF), and both rainfall and hail production as a function of model configuration (microphysics parameterization, lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), start date, use of nudging, compiler choice, damping, and number of vertical levels). We also examine the degree to which each ensemble member differs with respect to key mesoscale drivers of convective systems (e.g., convective available potential energy and vertical wind shear) and critical manifestations of deep convection, e.g., vertical velocities, cold-pool generation, and how those properties relate to the correct characterization of the associated atmospheric hazards (wind gusts and hail). Use of a double-moment, seven-class scheme with number concentrations for all species (including hail and graupel) results in the greatest fidelity of model-simulated wind gusts and convective structure to the observations of this event. All ensemble members, however, fail to capture the intensity of the event in terms of the spatial extent of convection and the production of high near-surface wind gusts. We further show very high sensitivity to the LBCs employed and specifically that simulation fidelity is higher for simulations nested within ERA-Interim compared to ERA5. Excess convective available potential energy (CAPE) in all ensemble members after the derecho passage leads to excess production of convective cells, wind gusts, cREF > 40 dBZ, and precipitation during a frontal passage on the subsequent day. This event proved very challenging to forecast in real time and to reproduce in the 15-member hindcast simulation ensemble presented here. Future work could examine if simulations with other initial and lateral boundary conditions can achieve greater fidelity.

Shepherd, Tristan (ORCID:0000000186276419)↗