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At least 307 records · Page 17

IC Project: w19_hossfault “Modelling of stick-slip behavior in sheared granular fault gouge & nonlinear elasticity behavior in cracked solid”

Low frequency earthquakes, non-volcanic tremor, and acoustic emissions are examples of weak seismic signals that may help detect major seismic events, i.e., earthquakes. In a laboratory setting, in which stick-slip events are simulated, acoustic emissions are detected far from the stick-slip events. In both, field and laboratory scale cases, the acoustic emission signals are sourced or detected in a volume remote from the volume that spawns the earthquake. Therefore, it is relevant to establish the causal relationship between signals detected on passive, remote monitors and the dynamics of the elastic structures that launch important seismic events. The work conducted under this IC allocation allowed us to utilize a numerical model that let us follow this causality, i.e., examine and connect the dynamics in a granular system (fault gouge), to signals detected on passive remote monitors. It was demonstrated that stress chains are key in the dynamics of granular systems and that their evolution is the source of the acoustic emission.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Room temperature colossal superparamagnetic order in aminoferrocene–graphene molecular magnets

Intensive studies are published for graphene-based molecular magnets due to their remarkable electric, thermal, and mechanical properties. However, to date, most of all produced molecular magnets are ligand based and subject to challenges regarding the stability of the ligand(s). The lack of long-range coupling limits high operating temperature and leads to a short-range magnetic order. Herein, we introduce an aminoferrocene-based graphene system with room temperature superparamagnetic behavior in the long-range magnetic order that exhibits colossal magnetocrystalline anisotropy of 8 × 10 5 and 3 × 10 7 J/m 3 in aminoferrocene and graphene-based aminoferrocene, respectively. These values are comparable to and even two orders of magnitude larger than pure iron metal. Aminoferrocene [C 10 H 11 FeN] + is synthesized by an electrophilic substitution reaction. It was then reacted with graphene oxide that was prepared by the modified Hammers method. The phase structure and functionalization of surface groups were characterized and confirmed by XRD, FT-IR, and Raman spectroscopy. To model the behavior of the aminoferrocene between two sheets of hydroxylated graphene, we have used density functional theory by placing the aminoferrocene molecule between two highly ordered hydroxylated sheets and allowing the structure to relax. Here, the strong bowing of the isolated graphene sheets suggests that the charge transfer and resulting magnetization could be strongly influenced by pressure effects. In contrast to strategies based on ligands surface attachment, our present work that uses interlayer intercalated aminoferrocene opens routes for future molecular magnets as well as the design of qubit arrays and quantum systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DriveSense: A Noise-Resilient Framework for Driving Mode Identification

Accurate drive mode classification is essential for enhancing the reliability and predictive maintenance of heavy-duty electric trucks. This study proposes a novel fuzzy logic-based framework, DriveSense, for real-time drive mode classification, addressing key challenges such as sensor noise, transitional behaviors, and computational efficiency. The proposed approach integrates a two-stage filtering pipeline, combining adaptive outlier removal and a dynamic Kalman filter to enhance data quality. A fuzzy inference system with smoothened trapezoidal membership functions is then applied to classify driving modes into standstill, constant speed, acceleration, and deceleration while mitigating the effects of noise and edge cases. Performance evaluation using real-world and simulated drive cycles demonstrates significant improvements in classification accuracy (up to 97.8%), F1-score (up to 0.97), and robustness against noise, while reducing false positives. Comparative analysis against baseline models, demonstrates DriveSense’s superior accuracy and generalizability across diverse driving patterns. The framework’s lightweight and interpretable fuzzy inference engine operates with low computational latency, ensuring compatibility with real-time embedded systems typical of heavy-duty electric trucks. Moreover, DriveSense models transitional behaviors through overlapping fuzzy sets and adaptive borderline classification logic, enabling smooth identification of subtle shifts such as rolling stops or gradual deceleration. These results highlight DriveSense’s potential to enhance predictive maintenance strategies, reduce downtime, and support scalable, fleet-wide diagnostics.

Kumar, Praveen [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

Generating Mixed Patterns of Residential Segregation: An Evolutionary Approach

The Schelling model of residential segregation has demonstrated that even the slightest preference for neighbors of the same race can be amplified into community-wide segregation. However, these models are unable to simulate mixed, coexisting patterns of segregation and integration, which have been seen to exist in cities. Using evolutionary model discovery we demonstrate how including social factors beyond racial bias when modeling relocation behavior enables the emergence of strongly mixed patterns. Our results indicate that the emergence of mixed patterns is better explained by multiple factors influencing the decision to relocate; the most important being the interaction of nonlinear, rapidly diminishing racial bias with a recent, historical tendency to move. Additionally, preference for less isolated neighborhoods or preference for neighborhoods with longer residing neighbors may produce weaker mixed patterns. Finally, this work highlights the importance of exploring the influence of multiple hypothesized factors of decision making, and their interactions, within agent rules, when studying emergent outcomes generated by agent-based models of complex social systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

High-Burnup BWR LOCA Burst Analysis Framework Development and Demonstration

Nuclear power currently contributes approximately 20% of total electricity generation in the United States and more than 10% globally. Given the increasing reliance on nuclear energy to achieve our nation’s goal of reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, there is significant pressure on the existing nuclear industry to extend plant operational licenses and improve efficiency. This is crucial as the existing nuclear fleet serves as a vital bridge until new light water and advanced reactors can be developed and deployed, bolstering the supply of carbon-free energy to meet domestic demands. Operational costs primarily consist of plant operation and maintenance and fuel costs, influenced by materials and reactor core designs. These factors, coupled with heavily subsidized renewable energy markets, create a challenging economic environment for the existing light water reactor fleet, as well as for new build projects. To address these economic challenges, the nuclear industry has developed a strategic blueprint aimed at enhancing nuclear power’s economic sustainability. Past initiatives, such as efforts to eliminate fuel failures by 2010 and reduce operating costs by 30% before 2020, have laid the groundwork. Optimizing core design parameters, including burnup limits and enrichment levels, can lengthen cycles, reduce outages, reduce batch reload batch fractions and spent fuel storage requirements, and lower maintenance and operating expenses, thereby enhancing economic viability. In the United States, boiling water reactors (BWRs) comprise approximately one-third of the fleet, although much of the research and development focus has traditionally been on pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Advances in modeling and simulation, particularly through the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, are crucial to the long-term viability of BWRs, just as they are for PWRs. A key research area of the high burnup/increased enriched fuel initiative is focused on addressing loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA)-related issues. NEAMS has dedicated significant effort to enhancing tools to better support BWRs, with a current focus on showcasing the BWR framework for high-burnup LOCA analysis. This high-fidelity work will demonstrate a best estimate pin-by-pin high-burnup BWR LOCA analysis to assess full-core cladding rupture behavior. This modeling capability will help with better understanding and realistic evaluation of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) phenomena at BWRs, which then could be used to prevent FFRD at BWRs without penalizing operational parameters. In addition, the results of this work will help identify strategies to identify additional margins or to potentially limit cladding rupture through core design optimizations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

GEOSH: Ideal Gas Chemical Equation of State

We present the framework and methodology for the new Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) G as chemical E quation O f S tate at H igher temperatures code (GEOSH) which aims to accurately model the behavior of chemically complex gaseous mixtures in equilibrium. Assuming the ideal gas approximation, GEOSH leverages the recursive nature of the Saha ionization and molecular equations in order to eliminate the molecular and ionic degrees of freedom, thereby reducing the problem size to the number of atomic species plus one for the free electrons if ions are included. This approach allows the chemical species, both molecular and ionic, of the mixture to be expressed in terms of the abundances of the elemental species. As a result, the GEOSH framework achieves a reduction in computational expense, increased processing speed, and the capability to efficiently model large-scale chemical networks. This report provides the necessary physical background and theoretical foundations for the GEOSH code, accompanied by benchmarking studies.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Acceleration of Thermochemistry Solves in MOOSE and Pronghorn

This work focuses on the development and implementation of strategies to accelerate thermochemical calculations within MOOSE-based multiphysics simulations, particularly for applications in MSRs. We highlight the inherent complexity of nuclear materials, which require a multiscale approach to accurately model their behavior across various physical domains, including mechanical, chemical, and thermal phenomena. Thermochemical equilibrium calculations are crucial for predicting material properties and enhancing the fidelity of these simulations. The integration of Thermochimica, a Gibbs energy minimizer, into MOOSE allows for the direct minimization of Gibbs energy at every point on the mesh. However, the computational cost of such integration is significant. To address this, we explored acceleration strategies such as multi-threading support and the use of a thermodynamic ValueCache to reduce redundant calculations. Additionally, we investigated modifications to Thermochimica to enable phase constraints and improve its coupling with phase-field models, which are essential for simulating microstructural evolution and corrosion in MSR. These efforts aim to optimize the computational efficiency and accuracy of multiphysics simulations, thereby supporting the development of reliable and efficient nuclear materials for next-generation reactor technologies.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Controlling cantilevered adaptive X-ray mirrors

Modeling the behavior of a prototype cantilevered X-ray adaptive mirror (held from one end) demonstrates its potential for use on high-performance X-ray beamlines. Similar adaptive mirrors are used on X-ray beamlines to compensate optical aberrations, control wavefronts and tune mirror focal distances at will. Controlled by 1D arrays of piezoceramic actuators, these glancing-incidence mirrors can provide nanometre-scale surface shape adjustment capabilities. However, significant engineering challenges remain for mounting them with low distortion and low environmental sensitivity. Finite-element analysis is used to predict the micron-scale full actuation surface shape from each channel and then linear modeling is applied to investigate the mirrors' ability to reach target profiles. Using either uniform or arbitrary spatial weighting, actuator voltages are optimized using a Moore–Penrose matrix inverse, or pseudoinverse, revealing a spatial dependence on the shape fitting with increasing fidelity farther from the mount.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Updating and Refining BISON TRISO Assessment

Several advanced reactor concepts consider tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel in their designs. To support the advanced reactor industry, the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is developing modeling and simulation capabilities within the BISON fuel performance code. Assessment of these capabilities against available experi- mental data, such as the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program, is essential in instilling confidence in the code predictions. Associated uncertainties in model inadequacy, experimental measurements, and manufacturing are also of importance. This report discusses the updating and standardization of the existing assessment suite in BISON for TRISO fuel performance analysis. The cases considered the AGR-1, AGR-2, and AGR-3/4 experimental programs. The report also includes a preliminary investigation into the sources of model inadequacy associated with silver (Ag) release fractions using the AGR-2 Compact 2-1-2 as a case study. The results indicate that uncertainties in the operating temperatures supplied to the model and the form of those temperature conditions (spatially averaged versus spatially resolved) both affect Ag release predictions. This suggests that previously observed model inadequacy can be attributed to both physical models and the operating conditions supplied to them. These findings will be leveraged to guide development of assessment cases for additional experiments and refinement of physical models for behaviors that potentially influence Ag release, such as palladium penetration.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Model for Humidity-Mediated Diffusion on Aluminum Surfaces and Its Role in Accelerating Atmospheric Aluminum Corrosion

Bare aluminum metal surfaces are highly reactive, which leads to the spontaneous formation of a protective oxide surface layer. Because many subsequent corrosive processes are mediated by water, the structure and dynamics of water at the oxide interface are anticipated to influence corrosion kinetics. Here, using molecular dynamics simulations with a reactive force field, we model the behavior of aqueous aluminum metal ions in water adsorbed onto aluminum oxide surfaces across a range of ion concentrations and water film thicknesses corresponding to increasing relative humidity. We find that the structure and diffusivity of both the water and the metal ions depend strongly on the humidity of the environment and the relative height within the adsorbed water film. Aqueous aluminum ion diffusion rates in water films corresponding to a typical indoor relative humidity of 30% are found to be more than 2 orders of magnitude slower than self-diffusion of water in the bulk limit. Connections between metal ion diffusivity and corrosion reaction kinetics are assessed parametrically with a reductionist model based on a 1D continuum reaction–diffusion equation. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating the properties specific to interfacial water in predictive models of aluminum corrosion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Forecast of Wildfire Potential Across California USA Using a Transformer

Wildfires are a major issue facing the United States, a matter further exacerbated by an ever-changing climate. In California alone, wildfires are responsible for billions of dollars in damages and take lives each year. Accurately predicting fire danger conditions allows preparation awareness before wildfires start. Transformers are a class of deep learning models designed to identify patterns in sequential datasets. In recent years, transformers have gained popularity through their impressive performance in natural language processing and other applications of signal recognition. This analysis demonstrates the ability of a transformer with a residual connection to forecast fire danger potential over the state of California. Wildland fire potential index (WFPI) maps collected from the US Geological Survey database from January 1st 2020 to December 31st 2023 were used to tune, train and evaluate the transformer. Meteorological inputs (provided by Daymet daily weather and climatological summaries), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (calculated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)), and outputs from the Scott and Burgman fire behavior fuel models (to characterize maps of fuel types), were used as inputs. Our results show that a transformer can effectively emulate the US Forest Service modeled WFPI maps of California USA for four week long forecasts over the month of July, 2023, with correlations ranging from 0.85 – 0.98.

Limber, Russell [ORNL]↗

Platform for Integrated Land use And Transportation Experiments and Simulation (PILATES) v1.0

PILATES allows for flexibly and at-scale coupling of multiple models to allow for multi-scale and multi-resolution simulation of regional-scale transport networks. In particular, it couples the MATSim-derived transportation modeling framework for Behavior, Energy, Autonomy and Mobility (BEAM) with other models operating at different time scales. Rather than tightly coupling supply and demand models using shared agents and memory within the same software process, PILATES orchestrates different model runs in a containerized framework. This structure requires passing information from the demand models to BEAM in the format of a synthetic population and agent plans, and from BEAM to the demand models in terms or origin/destination tables (also known as "skims"). This allows it to take advantage of the behavioral sophistication of existing activity-based models as well as the reinforcement learning structure of MATSim replanning and adopted by BEAM, in a way that requires minimal changes to existing models. It also takes advantage of the computational performance of BEAM, which allows for simulations with millions of agents to complete in reasonable time as well as allowing for detailed mechanistic simulation of the operation of on-demand modes.

Needell, Zachary↗

Fleet Algorithm Design for Pooled Rideshare: Integrating Human Factors, Simulation, and Optimization

This dissertation explores the study the integration of human factors modeling and rideshare fleet control algorithms. Pooled rideshare is a unique transportation mode offering that allows riders increased flexibility and accessibility over public transportation, and decreased cost relative to personal vehicles or traditional rideshare. Additionally, relative to personal vehicles, pooled rideshare offers reduced costs and options for those with difficulty obtaining transportation. Prior research in the space typically focused on modeling human behavior, or optimizing system performance, but a lack of integration of the concepts leads to unrealistic or underutilized outcomes. To tackle this problem, novel rideshare assignment, and repositioning strategies were designed and implemented in a simulation environment. Through a series of successive studies, improvements to current rideshare processes were identified, and beneficial outcomes for profitability, accessibility, and traffic were explored. Further, improved metrics to assess rideshare performance were designed and analyzed in the context of improved rideshare offerings. This research contributes to the field of transportation by tackling novel but pragmatic approaches to challenges facing the rideshare industry. Through the course of this dissertation, rideshares impacts on users, operators, and even regulators will be explored in detail. The justification behind the use of a simulation environment, a set of simulated regional models for testing, and the focus on realism and deployability is illustrated. The research identifies holes in potential markets for the use of both private, and public rideshare systems.

Paul, Joseph↗

Reproducible benchmark for the SNAP 8 experimental reactor at operating conditions

This work presents fully reproducible multiphysics benchmark models of the Systems for Nuclear Auxiliary Power (SNAP) 8 Experimental Reactor at operating conditions with coolant flow. Wet experiment (with coolant, at power) validation benchmarks are presented using both deterministic (Serpent-Griffin) and Monte-Carlo (OpenMC-Cardinal) multiphysics frameworks coupled with thermal-hydraulic solvers in MOOSE. Reactivity coefficient measurements including fuel temperature, isothermal temperature, and power coefficients show good agreement with experiments, with discrepancies within experimental uncertainty. Reactivity worth experiments for coolant, samarium, and xenon poisoning are reproduced with differences under 200 pcm. Comparison between Serpent-Griffin and OpenMC-Cardinal frameworks reveal multiphysics coupling introduces positive reactivity effects (100-200 pcm) compared to uniform temperature and density fields at nominal operating conditions. Comparison between Serpent-Griffin and reference Serpent solution shows that power distributions maintain consistent radial and axial peaking behavior. All models, assumptions, thermophysical and thermomechanical properties, and material definitions are thoroughly documented with cited references; model inputs and model generating scripts are stored in the snapReactors GitHub repository.

SNAP↗

Screening and Validation of Molecular Targeted Radiosensitizers

The development of molecular targeted drugs with radiation and chemotherapy is critically important for improving the outcomes of patients with hard-to-treat, potentially curable cancers. However, too many preclinical studies have not translated into successful radiation oncology trials. Major contributing factors to this insufficiency include poor reproducibility of preclinical data, inadequate preclinical modeling of intertumoral genomic heterogeneity that influences treatment sensitivity in the clinic, and a reliance on tumor growth delay instead of local control (TCD50) endpoints. There exists an urgent need to overcome these barriers to facilitate successful clinical translation of targeted radiosensitizers. To this end, we have used 3-dimensional (3D) cell culture assays to better model tumor behavior in vivo. Examples of successful prediction of in vivo effects with these 3D assays include radiosensitization of head and neck cancers by inhibiting epidermal growth factor receptor or focal adhesion kinase signaling, and radioresistance associated with oncogenic mutation of KRAS. To address the issue of tumor heterogeneity, we leveraged institutional resources that allow high-throughput 3D screening of radiation combinations with small-molecule inhibitors across genomically characterized cell lines from lung, head and neck, and pancreatic cancers. This high-throughput screen is expected to uncover genomic biomarkers that will inform the successful clinical translation of targeted agents from the National Cancer Institute Cancer Therapy Evaluation Program portfolio and other sources. Screening “hits” need to be subjected to refinement studies that include clonogenic assays, addition of disease-specific chemotherapeutics, target/biomarker validation, and integration of patient-derived tumor models. The chemoradiosensitizing activities of the most promising drugs should be confirmed in TCD50 assays in xenograft models with or without relevant biomarker and using clinically relevant radiation fractionation. We predict that appropriately validated and biomarker-directed targeted therapies will have a higher likelihood than past efforts of being successfully incorporated into the standard management of hard-to-treat tumors.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Phase transitions in Schloegl's second model for autocatalysis on a Bethe lattice

Schloegl's second model (also known as the quadratic contact process) on a lattice involves spontaneous particle annihilation at rate p and autocatalytic particle creation at empty sites with n ≥ 2 occupied neighbors. The particle creation rate for exactly n occupied neighbors is selected here as n(n - 1)/[z(z - 1)] for lattice coordination number z. We analyze this model on a Bethe lattice. Precise behavior for stochastic models on regular periodic infinite lattices is usually surmised from kinetic Monte Carlo simulation on a finite lattice with periodic boundary conditions. However, the persistence of boundary effects for a Bethe lattice complicates this process, e.g., by inducing spatially heterogenous states. This motivates the exploration of various boundary conditions and unconventional simulation ensembles on the Bethe lattice to predict behavior for infinite size. Here, we focus on z = 3, and predict a discontinuous transition to the vacuum state on the infinite lattice when p exceeds a threshold value of around 0.053.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

What Makes You Hold on to That Old Car? Joint Insights From Machine Learning and Multinomial Logit on Vehicle-Level Transaction Decisions

What makes you hold on to that old car? While the vast majority of household vehicles are still powered by conventional internal combustion engines, the progress of adopting emerging vehicle technologies will critically depend on how soon the existing vehicles are transacted out of the household fleet. Leveraging a nationally representative longitudinal data set, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this study examines how household decisions to dispose of or replace a given vehicle are: 1) influenced by the vehicle’s attributes, 2) mediated by households’ concurrent socio-demographic and economic attributes, and 3) triggered by key life cycle events. Coupled with a newly developed machine learning interpretation tool, TreeExplainer, we demonstrate an innovative use of machine learning models to augment traditional logit modeling to both generate behavioral insights and improve model performance. We find the two gradient-boosting-based methods, CatBoost and LightGBM, are the best performing machine learning models for this problem. The multinomial logistic model can achieve similar performance levels after its model specification is informed by TreeExplainer. Both machine learning and multinomial logit models suggest that while older vehicles are more likely to be disposed of or replaced than newer ones, such probability decreases as the vehicles serve the family longer. Pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles are less likely to be disposed of or replaced than cars, and leased vehicles are more likely to be transacted than owned vehicles. We find that married families, families with higher education levels, homeowners, and older families tend to keep their vehicles longer. Life events such as childbirth, residential relocation, and change of household composition and income are found to increase vehicle disposal and/or replacement. We provide additional insights on the timing of vehicle replacement or disposal, in particular, the presence of children and childbirth events are more strongly associated with vehicle replacement among younger parents.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Wildfire towers drive firebrand lofting: insights from coupled fire-atmosphere model simulations

Wildfire behavior is shaped by complex fire dynamics, with firebrands playing a critical role in spot fire ignition and fire spread. While previous studies have explored firebrand generation and transport, the specific role of towers and troughs from wildland fires in the lofting of firebrands remains unquantified. This study addresses that gap by using physics-based coupled fire-atmosphere model simulations to examine how wildfire towers (updrafts) and troughs (downdrafts) influence firebrand lofting. Our results show that the majority of firebrands (78.85%) are lofted from towers, where strong updrafts drive long-range transport. In contrast, only 21.15% of firebrands are lofted within troughs, where downdrafts cause most firebrands to fall near the fireline. We also find that firebrand size significantly influences lofting behavior, with smaller particles (1 mm radius) exhibiting the strongest correlation with updraft intensity. These findings highlight the dominant role of wildfire towers in promoting long-distance firebrand dispersal—an essential factor in rapid wildfire growth and wildland-urban interface (WUI) fire risks. By quantifying the relationship between firebrand lofting and fire-induced atmospheric features, this study provides critical insights to improve spot fire modeling, support mitigation planning, and enhance firefighter and WUI community safety in spot fire-prone regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗