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NASA NTRS2007

Remote and Ground Truth Spectral Measurement Comparisons

FORMOSAT III are a set of six research satellites from Taiwan that were launched in April 2006. The satellites are in 800 km, 71 degree inclination orbits and separated by 24 degrees in ascending node. Ground truth spectral measurements were taken of outer surface materials on FORMOSAT III. From those measurements, a computer model was built to predict the spectral reflectance, which included phase angle and orientation of the spacecraft relative to the observer. However, materials exposed to the space environment have exhibited spectral changes including a darkening and a reddening of the spectra. This reddening was seen as an increase in slope of the reflectance as the wavelength increases. Therefore, the model of pristine materials was augmented to include the space weathering effects. Remote data were collected on two of the six FORMOSAT satellites using the 1.6 meter telescope at AMOS (Air Force Maui Optical and Supercomputing) site with the Spica spectrometer. Due to the separation in ascending node, observations were made on whichever one of the six satellites was visible on that specific night. Three nights of data were collected using the red (6000 9500 angstroms) filter and two nights of data were collected using the blue (3200 -6600 angstroms) filter. A comparison of the data showed a good match to the pristine model for the blue filter region. The absorption feature near 5500 angstroms due to the copper colored Kapton multi-layer insulation (MLI) was very apparent in the remote samples and a good fit to the data was seen in both satellites observed. The features in the red filter regime agreed with the pristine model up through 7000 angstroms where the reddening begins and the slope of the remote sample increases. A comparison of the two satellites showed similar features in the red and blue filter regions, i.e. the satellites were aging at the same rate. A comparison of the pristine model to the first month of remote measurements showed the amount by which the satellite had reddened. This information was used in the space weathered model to predict the second month s reflectance measurement. The results showed that the reddening did not increase from the first month of observations to the second. A third month of data will be necessary to determine if the reddening occurs instantly and then stabilizes with time or if the effect continues to increase with time.

Abercromby, Kira Jorgensen↗

NASA NTRS2007

GEO Population Estimates using Optical Survey Data

Optical survey data taken using the NASA Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) gives us an opportunity to statistically sample faint object population in the Geosynchronous (GEO) and near-GEO environment. This paper will summarize the MODEST survey work that has been conducted by NASA since 2002, and will outline the techniques employed to arrive at the current population estimates in the GEO environment for dim objects difficult to detect and track using current systems in the Space Surveillance Network (SSN). Some types of orbits have a higher detection rate based on what parts of the GEO belt is being observed, a straightforward statistical technique is used to debias these observations to arrive at an estimate of the total population potentially visible to the telescope. The size and magnitude distributions of these fainter debris objects are markedly different from the catalogued population. GEO debris consists of at least two different populations, one which follows the standard breakup power law and one which has anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (1 to approx. 30 square meters per kilogram; a sheet of paper = approx. 13 square meters per kilogram). The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) is investigating objects in GEO orbits with anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (AMRs). The ESA Space Debris Telescope discovered this population and has and its properties of inclinations (0 to 30 degrees), changing eccentricities (0 and 0.6), and mean motions (approx. 1 rev), will be presented. The accepted interpretation of this orbital behavior is that solar radiation pressure drives the perturbations causing time varying inclinations and eccentricities. The orbital parameters are unstable for this population and thus difficult to predict. Their dim visual magnitudes and photometric variability make observations a challenge. The IADC has enlisted a series of observatories (participating institutions: University of Michigan/CTIO, Astronomical Institute University of Bern, Boeing LTS / AMOS, Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics) at different longitudes. Complete observational coverage over periods of days to months will provide a better understanding of the properties, such as solar radiation pressure effects on orbital elements, size, shape, attitude, color variations, and spectral characteristics. Results from recent observational programs will be summarized, and includes a description of the orbit elements prediction processes, a summary of the metric tracking performance, and some photometric characteristics of this class of debris.

Barker, Edwin S.↗

NASA NTRS2007

An Attempt to Observe Debris from the Breakup of a Titan 3C-4 Transtage

In February 2007 dedicated observations were made of the orbital space predicted to contain debris from the breakup of the Titan 3C-4 transtage back on February 21, 1992. These observations were carried out on the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST) in Chile with its 1.3deg field of view. The search region or orbital space (inclination and right ascension of the ascending node (RAAN) was predicted using NASA#s LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris) code to generate a Titan debris cloud. Breakup fragments are created based on the NASA Standard Breakup Model (including fragment size, area-to-mass (A/M), and delta-V distributions). Once fragments are created, they are propagated forward in time with a subroutine GEOPROP. Perturbations included in GEOPROP are those due to solar/lunar gravity, radiation pressure, and major geopotential terms. Barker, et. al, (AMOS Conference Proceedings, 2006, pp. 596-604) used similar LEGEND predictions to correlate survey observations made by MODEST (February 2002) and found several possible night-to-night correlations in the limited survey dataset. One conc lusion of the survey search was to dedicate a MODEST run to observing a GEO region predicted to contain debris fragments and actual Titan debris objects (SSN 25000, 25001 and 30000). Such a dedicated run was undertaken with MODEST between February 17 and 23, 2007 (UT dates). MODEST#s limiting magnitude of 18.0 (S\N approx.10) corresponds to a size of 22cm assuming a diffuse Lambertian albedo of 0.2. However, based on observed break-up data, we expect most debris fragments to be smaller than 22cm which implies a need to increase the effective sensitivity of MODEST for smaller objects. MODEST#s limiting size can be lowered by increasing the exposure time (20 instead of 5 seconds) and applying special image processing. The special processing combines individual CCD images to detect faint objects that are invisible on a single CCD image. Sub-images are cropped from six consecutive CCD images with pixel shifts between images being consistent with the predicted movement of a Titan object. A median image of all the sub-images is then created leaving only those objects with the proper Titan motion. Limiting the median image in this manner brings the needed computer time to process all images taken on one night down to about 50 hours of CPU time.

Barker, E. S.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Remote and Ground Truth Spectral Measurement Comparisons of FORMOSAT III

FORMOSAT III are a set of six research satellites from Taiwan that were launched in April 2006. The satellites are in 800 km, 71 degree inclination orbits and separated by 24 degrees in ascending node. Laboratory spectral measurements were taken of outer surface materials on FORMOSAT III. From those measurements, a computer model was built to predict the spectral reflectance accounting for both solar phase angle and orientation of the spacecraft relative to the observer. However, materials exposed to the space environment have exhibited spectral changes including a darkening and a "reddening" of the spectra. This "reddening" is characterized by an increase in slope of the reflectance as the wavelength increases. Therefore, the model of pre-flight materials was augmented to include the presumed causative agent: space weathering effects. Remote data were collected on two of the six FORMOSAT satellites using the 1.6 meter telescope at the AMOS (Air Force Maui Optical and Supercomputing) site with the Spica spectrometer. Due to the separation in ascending node, observations were acquired of whichever one of the six satellites was visible on that specific night. Three nights of data were collected using the red (6000 - 9500 angstroms) filter and five nights of data were collected using the blue (3200 - 6600 angstroms) filter. A comparison of the data showed a good match to the pre-flight models for the blue filter region. The absorption feature near 5500 angstroms due to the copper colored Kapton multi-layer insulation (MLI) was very apparent in the remote samples and a good fit to the data was seen in all satellites observed. The features in the red filter regime agreed with the pre-flight model up through 7000 angstroms where the reddening begins and the slope of the remote sample increases. A comparison of the satellites showed similar features in the red and blue filter regions, i.e. the satellite surfaces were aging at the same rate. A comparison of the pre-flight model to the first month of remote measurements showed the amount by which the satellite had reddened. The second month of data observed a satellite at a higher altitude and was therefore, not compared to the first month. A third month of data was collected but of satellites at the lower altitude regime and can only be compared to the first month. One cause of the reddening that was ruled out in early papers was a possible calibration issue.

Abercromby, Kira Jorgensen↗

NASA NTRS1999

Large area pulsed solar simulator

An advanced solar simulator illuminates the surface a very large solar array, such as one twenty feet by twenty feet in area, from a distance of about twenty-six feet with an essentially uniform intensity field of pulsed light of an intensity of one AMO, enabling the solar array to be efficiently tested with light that emulates the sun. Light modifiers sculpt a portion of the light generated by an electrically powered high power Xenon lamp and together with direct light from the lamp provide uniform intensity illumination throughout the solar array, compensating for the square law and cosine law reduction in direct light intensity, particularly at the corner locations of the array. At any location within the array the sum of the direct light and reflected light is essentially constant.

Kruer, Mark A.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Ultra-Lightweight Hybrid Thin-Film Solar Cells: A Survey of Enabling Technologies for Space Power Applications

The development of hybrid inorganic/organic thin-film solar cells on flexible, lightweight, space-qualified, durable substrates provides an attractive solution for fabricating solar arrays with high mass specific power (W/kg). Next generation thin-film technologies may well involve a revolutionary change in materials to organic-based devices. The high-volume, low-cost fabrication potential of organic cells will allow for square miles of solar cell production at one-tenth the cost of conventional inorganic materials. Plastic solar cells take a minimum of storage space and can be inflated or unrolled for deployment. We will explore a cross-section of in-house and sponsored research efforts that aim to provide new hybrid technologies that include both inorganic and polymer materials as active and substrate materials. Research at University of Texas at Arlington focuses on the fabrication and use of poly(isothianaphthene-3,6-diyl) in solar cells. We describe efforts at Norfolk State University to design, synthesize and characterize block copolymers. A collaborative team between EIC Laboratories, Inc. and the University of Florida is investigating multijunction polymer solar cells to more effectively utilize solar radiation. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/Ohio Aerospace Institute (OAI) group has undertaken a thermal analysis of potential metallized substrates as well as production of nanoparticles of CuInS2 and CuInSe2 in good yield at moderate temperatures via decomposition of single-source precursors. Finally, preliminary work at the Rochester Institute of Technology (R.I.T.) to assess the impact on performance of solar cells of temperature and carbon nanotubes is reported. Technologies that must be developed to enable ultra-lightweight solar arrays include: monolithic interconnects, lightweight array structures, and new ultra-light support and deployment mechanisms. For NASA applications, any solar cell or array technology must not only meet weight and AMO efficiency goals, but also must be durable enough to survive launch conditions and space environments.

Hepp, Aloysius F.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Performance of High-Efficiency Advanced Triple-Junction Solar Panels for the LILT Mission Dawn

NASA's Discovery Mission Dawn is designed to (LILT) conditions. operate within the solar system's Asteroid belt, where the large distance from the sun creates a low-intensity, low-temperature (LILT) condition. To meet the mission power requirements under LlLT conditions, very high-efficiency multi-junction solar cells were selected to power the spacecraft to be built by Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC) under contract with JPL. Emcore's InGaP/InGaAs/Ge advanced triple-junction (ATJ) solar cells, exhibiting an average air mass zero (AMO) efficiency of greater than 27.6% (one-sun, 28 C), were used to populate the solar panels [1]. The two solar array wings, to be built by Dutch Space, with 5 large- area panels each (total area of 36.4 sq. meters) are projected to produce between 10.3 kWe and 1.3 kWe of end-of life (EOL) power in the 1.0 to 3.0 AU range, respectively. The details of the solar panel design, testing and power analysis are presented.

triple junction solar cells↗

NASA NTRS2008

The US CLIVAR Working Group on Drought: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies on Regional Drought

Schubert, Siegfried↗

NASA NTRS2009

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

The USCLI VAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM5), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

NASA NTRS2007

Ultra-Thin, Triple-Bandgap GaInP/GaAs/GaInAs Monolithic Tandem Solar Cells

The performance of state-of-the-art, series-connected, lattice-matched (LM), triple-junction (TJ), III-V tandem solar cells could be improved substantially (10-12%) by replacing the Ge bottom subcell with a subcell having a bandgap of approx.1 eV. For the last several years, research has been conducted by a number of organizations to develop approx.1-eV, LM GaInAsN to provide such a subcell, but, so far, the approach has proven unsuccessful. Thus, the need for a high-performance, monolithically integrable, 1-eV subcell for TJ tandems has remained. In this paper, we present a new TJ tandem cell design that addresses the above-mentioned problem. Our approach involves inverted epitaxial growth to allow the monolithic integration of a lattice-mismatched (LMM) approx.1- eV GaInAs/GaInP double-heterostructure (DH) bottom subcell with LM GaAs (middle) and GaInP (top) upper subcells. A transparent GaInP compositionally graded layer facilitates the integration of the LM and LMM components. Handle-mounted, ultra-thin device fabrication is a natural consequence of the inverted-structure approach, which results in a number of advantages, including robustness, potential low cost, improved thermal management, incorporation of back-surface reflectors, and possible reclamation/reuse of the parent crystalline substrate for further cost reduction. Our initial work has concerned GaInP/GaAs/GaInAs tandem cells grown on GaAs substrates. In this case, the 1- eV GaInAs experiences 2.2% compressive LMM with respect to the substrate. Specially designed GaInP graded layers are used to produce 1-eV subcells with performance parameters nearly equaling those of LM devices with the same bandgap (e.g., LM, 1-eV GaInAsP grown on InP). Previously, we reported preliminary ultra-thin tandem devices (0.237 cm2) with NREL-confirmed efficiencies of 31.3% (global spectrum, one sun) (1), 29.7% (AM0 spectrum, one sun) (2), and 37.9% (low-AOD direct spectrum, 10.1 suns) (3), all at 25 C. Here, we include recent results of testing similar devices under the concentrated AMO spectrum, and also present the first demonstration of a high-efficiency, ultra-thin GaInP/GaAs/GaInAs tandem cell processed on a flexible kapton handle.

Wanlass, M. W.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Predicting Fire Season Severity in South America Using Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Fires in South America cause forest degradation and contribute to carbon emissions associated with land use change. Here we investigated the relationship between year-to-year changes in satellite-derived estimates of fire activity in South America and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. We found that the Oceanic Ni o Index (ONI) was correlated with interannual fire activity in the eastern Amazon whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index was more closely linked with fires in the southern and southwestern Amazon. Combining these two climate indices, we developed an empirical model that predicted regional annual fire season severity (FSS) with 3-5 month lead times. Our approach provides the foundation for an early warning system for forecasting the vulnerability of Amazon forests to fires, thus enabling more effective management with benefits for mitigation of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions.

Chen, Yang↗

NASA NTRS2012

Characterizing Orbital Debris and Spacecrafts Through a Multi-Analytical Approach

Defining the risks present to both crewed and robotic spacecrafts is part of NASA s mission, and is critical to keep these resources out of harms way. Characterizing orbital debris is an essential part of this mission. We present a proof-of-concept study that employs multiple techniques to demonstrate the efficacy of each approach. The targets of this study are IDCSPs (Initial Defense Communications Satellite Program). 35 of these satellites were launched by the US in the mid-1960s and were the first US communications satellites in the GEO regime. They were emplaced in slightly sub-synchronous orbits. These targets were chosen for this proof-of-concept study for the simplicity of their observable exterior surfaces. The satellites are 26-sided polygons (86cm in diameter), initially spin-stabilized and covered on all sides in solar panels. Data presented here include: (a) visible broadband photometry (Johnson B and Cousins R bands) taken with the University of Michigan s 0.6-m aperture Curtis-Schmidt telescope MODEST (for Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope) in Chile in November, 2011, (b) laboratory broadband photometry (Johnson BV Cousins RI) of solar cells, obtained using the Optical Measurements Center (OMC) at NASA/JSC (see Cowardin et al., this meeting for more details), (c) visible-band spectra taken using the Magellan 6.5m Baade Telescope at Las Campanas Observatory in Chile in March, 2012 (see also Seitzer et al., this meeting), and (d) visible-band laboratory spectra of solar cells using a Field Spectrometer. Color-color plots using broadband photometry (e.g. B-R vs. R-I) demonstrate that different material types fall into distinct areas on the plots (Cowardin, AMOS 2010). Spectra will be binned in wavelength to compare with photometry results and plotted on the same graph for comparison. This allows us to compare lab data with telescopic data, and photometric results with spectroscopic results. In addition, the spectral response of solar cells in the visible wavelength regime varies from relatively flat (modern black solar cells with uniform albedo as a function of wavelength) to older solar cells whose reflectivity is sharply peaked in the blue (similar to the IDCSP solar cells). With a target like IDCSPs, the material type is known a priori. Therefore, this study will also be used to determine whether laboratory spectra of pre-launch (pristine) solar cells differ from the telescopic spectra of IDCSPs that have been exposed to the harsh environment of space for ~45 years to investigate whether space weathering effects are evident.

Lederer, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Predicting Regional Drought on Sub-Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales

Drought occurs on a wide range of time scales, and within a variety of different types of regional climates. It is driven foremost by an extended period of reduced precipitation, but it is the impacts on such quantities as soil moisture, streamflow and crop yields that are often most important from a users perspective. While recognizing that different users have different needs for drought information, it is nevertheless important to understand that progress in predicting drought and satisfying such user needs, largely hinges on our ability to improve predictions of precipitation. This talk reviews our current understanding of the physical mechanisms that drive precipitation variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales, and the implications for predictability and prediction skill. Examples are given highlighting the phenomena and mechanisms controlling precipitation on monthly (e.g., stationary Rossby waves, soil moisture), seasonal (ENSO) and decadal time scales (PD~ and AMO).

Schubert, Siegfried↗

NASA NTRS2012

Comparative Analysis of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability from Ensemble Operational Ocean Analyses

Upper ocean heat content (HC) is one of the key indicators of climate variability on many time-scales extending from seasonal to interannual to long-term climate trends. For example, HC in the tropical Pacific provides information on thermocline anomalies that is critical for the longlead forecast skill of ENSO. Since HC variability is also associated with SST variability, a better understanding and monitoring of HC variability can help us understand and forecast SST variability associated with ENSO and other modes such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An accurate ocean initialization of HC anomalies in coupled climate models could also contribute to skill in decadal climate prediction. Errors, and/or uncertainties, in the estimation of HC variability can be affected by many factors including uncertainties in surface forcings, ocean model biases, and deficiencies in data assimilation schemes. Changes in observing systems can also leave an imprint on the estimated variability. The availability of multiple operational ocean analyses (ORA) that are routinely produced by operational and research centers around the world provides an opportunity to assess uncertainties in HC analyses, to help identify gaps in observing systems as they impact the quality of ORAs and therefore climate model forecasts. A comparison of ORAs also gives an opportunity to identify deficiencies in data assimilation schemes, and can be used as a basis for development of real-time multi-model ensemble HC monitoring products. The OceanObs09 Conference called for an intercomparison of ORAs and use of ORAs for global ocean monitoring. As a follow up, we intercompared HC variations from ten ORAs -- two objective analyses based on in-situ data only and eight model analyses based on ocean data assimilation systems. The mean, annual cycle, interannual variability and longterm trend of HC have been analyzed

Xue, Yan↗

NASA NTRS2012

Statistical Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin, 1945-2010

Examined are statistical aspects of the 715 tropical cyclones that formed in the North Atlantic basin during the interval 1945-2010. These 715 tropical cyclones include 306 storms that attained only tropical storm strength, 409 hurricanes, 179 major or intense hurricanes, and 108 storms that struck the US coastline as hurricanes. Comparisons made using 10-year moving average (10-yma) values between tropical cyclone parametric values and surface air and ENSO-related parametric values indicate strong correlations to exist, in particular, against the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) surface air temperature, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) index, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, in addition to the Oceanic Ni o index (ONI) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) indices. Also examined are the decadal variations of the tropical cyclone parametric values and a look ahead towards the 2012 hurricane season and beyond.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Human-in-the-Loop Operations over Time Delay: NASA Analog Missions Lessons Learned

Teams at NASA have conducted studies of time-delayed communications as it effects human exploration. In October 2012, the Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Analog Missions project conducted a Technical Interchange Meeting (TIM) with the primary stakeholders to share information and experiences of studying time delay, to build a coherent picture of how studies are covering the problem domain, and to determine possible forward plans (including how to best communicate study results and lessons learned, how to inform future studies and mission plans, and how to drive potential development efforts). This initial meeting s participants included personnel from multiple NASA centers (HQ, JSC, KSC, ARC, and JPL), academia, and ESA. It included all of the known studies, analog missions, and tests of time delayed communications dating back to the Apollo missions including NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations (NEEMO), Desert Research and Technology Studies (DRATS/RATS), International Space Station Test-bed for Analog Research (ISTAR), Pavilion Lake Research Project (PLRP), Mars 520, JPL Mars Orbiters/Rovers, Advanced Mission Operations (AMO), Devon Island analog missions, and Apollo experiences. Additionally, the meeting attempted to capture all of the various functional perspectives via presentations by disciplines including mission operations (flight director and mission planning), communications, crew, Capcom, Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA), Behavioral Health and Performance (BHP), Medical/Surgeon, Science, Education and Public Outreach (EPO), and data management. The paper summarizes the descriptions and results from each of the activities discussed at the TIM and includes several recommendations captured in the meeting for dealing with time delay in human exploration along with recommendations for future development and studies to address this issue.

Rader, Steven N.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Advancing Autonomous Operations for Deep Space Vehicles

Starting in Jan 2012, the Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Autonomous Mission Operations (AMO) Project began to investigate the ability to create and execute "single button" crew initiated autonomous activities [1]. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) designed and built a fluid transfer hardware test-bed to use as a sub-system target for the investigations of intelligent procedures that would command and control a fluid transfer test-bed, would perform self-monitoring during fluid transfers, detect anomalies and faults, isolate the fault and recover the procedures function that was being executed, all without operator intervention. In addition to the development of intelligent procedures, the team is also exploring various methods for autonomous activity execution where a planned timeline of activities are executed autonomously and also the initial analysis of crew procedure development. This paper will detail the development of intelligent procedures for the NASA MSFC Autonomous Fluid Transfer System (AFTS) as well as the autonomous plan execution capabilities being investigated. Manned deep space missions, with extreme communication delays with Earth based assets, presents significant challenges for what the on-board procedure content will encompass as well as the planned execution of the procedures.

Haddock, Angie T.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013

This Technical Publication (TP) is part 2 of a two-part study of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that occurred during the weather satellite era, 1960-2013. In particular, this TP examines the inferred statistical relationships between 25 tropical cyclone parameters and 9 specific climate-related factors, including the (1) Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), (2) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), (3) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, (4) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) index, (5) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), (6) NAO index of the Climate Research Unit (CRU), (7) Armagh surface air temperature (ASAT), (8) Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI), and (9) Mauna Loa carbon dioxide (CO2) (MLCO2) index. Part 1 of this two-part study examined the statistical aspects of the 25 tropical cyclone parameters (e.g., frequencies, peak wind speed (PWS), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), etc.) and provided the results of statistical testing (i.e., runs-testing, the t-statistic for independent samples, and Poisson distributions). Also, the study gave predictions for the frequencies of the number of tropical cyclones (NTC), number of hurricanes (NH), number of major hurricanes (NMH), and number of United States land-falling hurricanes (NUSLFH) expected for the 2014 season, based on the statistics of the overall interval 1960-2013, the subinterval 1995-2013, and whether the year 2014 would be either an El Niño year (ENY) or a non-El Niño year (NENY).

Wilson, Robert M.↗