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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Is Water a Universal Solvent for Life?

There are strong reasons to believe that the laws, principles and constraints of physics and chemistry are universal. It is much less clear how this universality translates into our understanding of the origins of life. Conventionally, discussions of this topic focus on chemistry that must be sufficiently rich to seed life. Although this is clearly a prerequisite for the emergence of living systems, I propose to focus instead on self-organization of matter into functional structures capable of reproduction, evolution and responding to environmental changes. In biology, most essential functions are largely mediated by noncovalent interactions (interactions that do not involve making or breaking chemical bonds). Forming chemical bonds is only a small part of what living systems do. There are specific implications of this point of view for universality. I will concentrate on one of these implications. Strength of non-covalent interactions must be properly tuned. If they were too weak, the system would exhibit undesired, uncontrolled response to natural fluctuations of physical and chemical parameters. If they were too strong kinetics of biological processes would be slow and energetics costly. This balance, however, is not a natural property of complex chemical systems. Instead, it has to be achieved with the aid of an appropriate solvent for life. In particular, potential solvents for life must be characterized by a high dielectric constant to ensure solubility of polar species and sufficient flexibility of biological structures stabilized by electrostatic interactions. Among these solvents, water exhibits a remarkable trait that it also promotes solvophobic (hydrophobic) interactions between non-polar species, typically manifested by a tendency of these species to aggregate and minimize their contacts with the aqueous solvent. Hydrophobic interactions are responsible, at least in part, for many self-organization phenomena in biological systems, such as the formation of cellular boundary structures or protein folding. Strengths of electrostatic and hydrophobic interactions are similar and can be balanced over a wide range of temperatures, which considerably increases the repertoire of interactions that can be used to modulate biological functions. Some properties of water, e.g. its chemical activity against polymerization reactions, are considered as unfavorable to life. In actuality, this might be a favorable trait because life requires a balance between constructive and destructive processes. For example, molecules synthesized in response to specific conditions must be degraded once these conditions change. Otherwise regulation of biological processes would be virtually impossible. Water might not be the only liquid with favorable properties for supporting life. It has been proposed that formamide, which might be present elsewhere in the universe in sufficient quantities to warrant interest, could be a potential alternative to water for the origin of life. However, this will remain highly hypothetical until it is demonstrated in further studies on its physical, chemical and biological properties it is capable of mediating self-organization of matter and providing proper balance between different types of non-covalent interactions.

Pohorill, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2018

Improved Hydrology over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

Peatlands of the Northern Hemisphere represent an important carbon pool that mainly accumulated since the last ice age under permanently wet conditions in specific geological and climatic settings. The carbon balance of peatlands is closely coupled to water table dynamics. Consequently, the future carbon balance over peatlands is strongly dependent on how hydrology in peatlands will react to changing boundary conditions, e.g. due to climate change or regional water level drawdown of connected aquifers or streams. Global land surface modeling over organic-rich regions can provide valuable global-scale insights on where and how peatlands are in transition due to changing boundary conditions. However, the current global land surface models are not able to reproduce typical hydrological dynamics in peatlands well. We implemented specific structural and parametric changes to account for key hydrological characteristics of peatlands into NASA's GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM, Koster et al. 2000). The main modifications pertain to the modeling of partial inundation, and the definition of peatland-specific runoff and evapotranspiration schemes. We ran a set of simulations on a high performance cluster using different CLSM configurations and validated the results with a newly compiled global in-situ dataset of water table depths in peatlands. The results demonstrate that an update of soil hydraulic properties for peat soils alone does not improve the performance of CLSM over peatlands. However, structural model changes for peatlands are able to improve the skill metrics for water table depth. The validation results for the water table depth indicate a reduction of the bias from 2.5 to 0.2 m, and an improvement of the temporal correlation coefficient from 0.5 to 0.65, and from 0.4 to 0.55 for the anomalies. Our validation data set includes both bogs (rain-fed) and fens (ground and/or surface water influence) and reveals that the metrics improved less for fens. In addition, a comparison of evapotranspiration and soil moisture estimates over peatlands will be presented, albeit only with limited ground-based validation data. We will discuss strengths and weaknesses of the new model by focusing on time series of specific validation sites.

Bechtold, M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Observations of the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer’s Response to a Solar Eclipse

The atmospheric response to the solar eclipse of 8 April 2024 in North America is investigated with a specific focus on the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL). We leverage measurements collected during the Third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3), including Doppler lidars, sonic anemometers, and thermodynamic profiler data to investigate the atmospheric response across sites that experienced partial eclipse conditions with nearly 90% obscuration. Using these measurements, we examine eclipse-induced changes in key meteorological parameters, such as temperature, wind speed, and turbulent fluxes. Most previous eclipse studies have been conducted over land, whereas this study provides new observations for both coastal and marine environments, offering additional insight into eclipse-driven variability in the MABL. The findings confirm a notable decrease in downwelling shortwave radiation during the eclipse, which results in rapid cooling of surface air. The temperature reduction ranges from $1.2^\circ \text {C}$ to $1.4^\circ \text {C}$ in coastal regions and from $0.3^\circ \text {C}$ to $0.5^\circ \text {C}$ over the ocean. This analysis suggests that the MABL’s higher thermal inertia compared to coastal regions moderates the temperature decrease during the eclipse. Wind speed exhibits a more complex behavior, as it is influenced by both the MABL and preexisting synoptic conditions. Although a reduction in wind speed is observable up to approximately 140 m above ground level (AGL) at more inland sites, at other locations closer to the coast, this reduction is constrained to the lowest 100 m AGL. Turbulence parameters retrieved from sonic anemometers, such as turbulence kinetic energy, turbulent heat flux, and friction velocity, decrease during the eclipse at coastal sites, accompanied by a brief transition of atmospheric stability from unstable to neutral or weakly stable conditions. For the open-ocean sites, the variability in turbulence statistics and atmospheric stability is minimal during the occurrence of the eclipse.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
NASA NTRS2003

Resonance Effects in the NASA Transonic Flutter Cascade Facility

Investigations of unsteady pressure loadings on the blades of fans operating near the stall flutter boundary are carried out under simulated conditions in the NASA Transonic Flutter Cascade facility (TFC). It has been observed that for inlet Mach numbers of about 0.8, the cascade flowfield exhibits intense low-frequency pressure oscillations. The origins of these oscillations were not clear. It was speculated that this behavior was either caused by instabilities in the blade separated flow zone or that it was a tunnel resonance phenomenon. It has now been determined that the strong low-frequency oscillations, observed in the TFC facility, are not a cascade phenomenon contributing to blade flutter, but that they are solely caused by the tunnel resonance characteristics. Most likely, the self-induced oscillations originate in the system of exit duct resonators. For sure, the self-induced oscillations can be significantly suppressed for a narrow range of inlet Mach numbers by tuning one of the resonators. A considerable amount of flutter simulation data has been acquired in this facility to date, and therefore it is of interest to know how much this tunnel self-induced flow oscillation influences the experimental data at high subsonic Mach numbers since this facility is being used to simulate flutter in transonic fans. In short, can this body of experimental data still be used reliably to verify computer codes for blade flutter and blade life predictions? To answer this question a study on resonance effects in the NASA TFC facility was carried out. The results, based on spectral and ensemble averaging analysis of the cascade data, showed that the interaction between self-induced oscillations and forced blade motion oscillations is very weak and can generally be neglected. The forced motion data acquired with the mistuned tunnel, when strong self-induced oscillations were present, can be used as reliable forced pressure fluctuations provided that they are extracted from raw data sets by an ensemble averaging procedure.

Lepicovsky, J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Boreal Winter Predictions with the GEOS-2 GCM: The Role of Boundary Forcing and Initial Conditions

Ensembles of atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) seasonal forecasts and long-term simulations (1980-94) are analyzed to assess the controlling influences of boundary forcing and memory of the initial conditions. Both the forecasts and simulations are carried out with version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-2) GCM forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). While much of the focus is on the seasonal time scale (January- March) and the Pacific North American (PNA) region, we also present results for other regions, shorter time scales, and other known modes of variability in the northern hemisphere extratropics. Forecasts of indices of some of the key large-scale modes of variability show that there is considerable variability in skill between different regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The eastern North Atlantic region has the poorest long lead forecast skill showing no skill beyond about 10 days. Skillful seasonal forecasts are primarily confined to the wave-like ENSO response emanating from the tropical Pacific. In the Northern Hemisphere, this is associated with the well-known Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern. Memory of the initial conditions is the major factor leading to skillful extratropical forecasts of lead time less than one month, while SST forcing is the only factor at the seasonal time scale. SST forcing contributes to skillful forecasts at sub- seasonal time scales only over the PNA region. The GEOS-2 GCM produces average (1980-94) signal to noise ratios which are less than one everywhere in the extratropics, except for the subtropical Pacific where they approach 1.5. When confined to the ENSO years, the maximum signal to noise ratios occur in the PNA region where they exceed three. An assessment of the sampling distribution of the forecasts suggests the model's ENSO response is very likely too weak. These results show some sensitivity to the uncertainties in the estimates of the SST forcing fields. In the North Pacific region, the sensitivity to SST forcing manifests itself primarily as changes in the variability of the PNA response, underscoring the need for an ensemble approach to the seasonal prediction problem.

Chang, Yehui↗
NASA NTRS2022

Nonlinear Evolution of Instabilities in a Laminar Separation Bubble at a Hypersonic Mach Number

The development of both convective stationary perturbation as well as global instabilities in the vicinity of a laminar separation bubble above an axisymmetric compression corner in a hypersonic flow is investigated using numerical simulations. The flow configuration of primary interest corresponds to the cone-cylinder-flare model used in experimental measurements in the Boeing/AFOSR Mach-6 Quiet Tunnel at Purdue University. For a flare angle of 10 degrees and a unit Reynolds number of 11.5 x 10 6 m -1 , their surface flow visualizations identified the presence of streamwise elongated thermal streaks near the reattachment position and the dominant azimuthal spacing between the streaks was determined to be approximately 10 degrees (i.e., an azimuthal mode number of 36). Previous linear stability analyses predicted that the amplification characteristics of small amplitude, unsteady, convective instabilities within this flow were consistent with the surface pressure fluctuations measured in the experiment. However, their accompanying analysis of global instabilities had found the separation bubble to be weakly unstable at the 10 degrees flare angle, with the most unstable global mode corresponding to a stationary disturbance with an azimuthal wavenumber of m ≈ 5, which was well below the measured wavenumber of m = 36. Besides confirming the presence of the global instability at these flow conditions, the present numerical simulations quantify the details of the stationary equilibrium state associated with the supercritical bifurcation resulting from the nonlinear saturation of the unstable global mode. Although velocity perturbations associated with the saturated global mode are dominated by the fundamental spanwise wavelength associated with the linear global instability, the surface heat flux downstream of reattachment is dominated by m = 36 in agreement with experimental measurements. However, the shorter wavelength peak ( m = 36) in the azimuthal spectrum is not manifested as streaks with an azimuthal spacing of 10 degrees. An additional simulation of the combined evolution of both unsteady convective and global instabilities indicates that the nonlinear interactions between a broadband spectrum of oblique Mack’s first mode instabilities generate stationary vortex modes with a higher dominant wavenumber ( m = 60) as that observed in the experiments. Additional analyses are performed to predict the global mode behavior at other flare angles and how it differs from the convective centrifugal instability due to concave streamline curvature over the compression corner.

Hypersonic flow↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Understanding and Utilizing PBL Height Data from Multiple Observing Systems in the GEOS System

The accuracy of PBL height simulation is a key issue in many applications including forecasting near surface meteorology and air quality, however, it is a very challenging problem due to the lack of not only comprehensive, global Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) observations but also a strategy and infrastructure to utilize PBL height data from a variety of sensors. Following the designation of PBL as an incubation class observable in the 2017 Decadal Survey, the PBL Incubation Study Team Report [14] made clear that “a future global PBL observing system requires modeling and data assimilation as essential components.” There is an urgent need for global modeling development in order to utilize Program of Record (POR) observations, assess their impacts, and identify gaps to be filled by future PBL missions. Our overall objective is to develop PBL data assimilation capabilities in the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS), focusing on PBL height from multiple observing systems, to support the assessment and use of future PBL observations. The NASA GEOS system is composed of the GEOS global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and the atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). The PBL parameterizations include the “Lock” K-profile scheme driven by surface and cloud-top buoyancy fluxes ([4]), and the “Louis” local scheme for stable conditions based on the Richardson number ([5]). Above the mixed layer defined by the Lock surface plume, shallow cumulus convection is represented by the mass flux scheme of [9]. Additional parameterizations are summarized in [1]. The ADAS employs the hybrid 4D Ensemble- Variational (EnVar) configuration ([15]), with the ensemble providing flow-dependent background error covariance information. The resultant analysis increments are fed back to the forecast model through the 4D incremental analysis update (IAU) approach ([11]). In this study, PBL height data are being or have been generated from radiosondes, GNSS RO, satellite (CATS, CALIPSO and ICESat-2) and ground-based (MPLNET) lidars, and wind profiler. Investigations have been conducted to specify quality marks for PBL height retrievals for the data assimilation purpose. These PBL height data have different strengths and weaknesses ([2], [3], [6], [7], [8], [10]), and the satellite PBL height data provide better global coverage and complement in-situ PBL height data. Radiosondes offer high accuracy and in situ measurement of temperature and humidity profiles, but with poor spatio-temporal sampling. The in-situ observing systems like MPLNET and wind profiler provide long history of PBL height records at each station. The GNSS RO based PBL height is retrieved based on the sharp gradients in refractivity profile that represent the fine vertical structure of temperature and moisture changes above the PBL. However, not all RO refractivity profiles reach the surface depending on location and regime, and RO refractivity retrievals can be negatively biased below 2km. The PBL height data from satellite lidars provide high resolution along track PBL height retrievals, but over land they are affected by previous day convective PBL aerosol and strongly associated with mixing layer and retrievals cannot be made below thick, attenuating clouds. A successful assimilation of PBL height data requires a thorough understanding of the observing method and the retrieval algorithm for each observing system in order to use the PBL height data from multiple observing systems properly. Due to the sensitivity of PBL height data to the observing method and choice of algorithm, it is important to use a model definition appropriate for each observation type to compute differences between PBL height data and model PBL height (OmFs). The GEOS model currently includes two PBL height definitions suitable for direct comparison with observed PBL height, and additional definitions are being added in this study. Evaluation of different model PBL height definitions is underway. Meanwhile, efforts have been made in the GEOS data assimilation system to develop PBL height data assimilation capability. PBL height data can be assimilated using two different approaches. The traditional approach is to construct an observation operator and its tangent linear and adjoint, which link control variables to PBL height data from each observing system. This observation operator can be very complicated, e.g., the lidar-based PBL height observation operator includes the backscatter lidar forward observation operator, the algorithm to derive PBL height from attenuated total backscatter, interpolation, and calculations handling the mismatch between observed and model scales. The other approach is to augment PBL height to the control variable vector, and it is adopted in this study. The latter approach was also used in previous studies, e.g., the assimilation of PBL height data from radiosonde and aircraft in the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) system for a dispersion modelling study ([13]); the PBL height assimilation study using lidar PBL height data at Greensburg, Kansas for a field campaign ([12]). The PBL height assimilation from multiple observing systems in this study allows us to take advantage of the diverse PBL height data that provide much better global coverage collectively under different meteorological conditions and with different temporal and spatial scales. As all the PBL heights are tightly coupled with the PBL thermodynamic variables, the strong correlations, which are provided by the 4D ensemble forecast, enable PBL height data from various sources to interact and combine coherently and provide additional information for PBL temperature and moisture fields. The results of comparisons among PBL height data from different sources and the evaluation of the model PBL height definitions with the PBL height data will be presented, and the PBL height data synergy strategies and preliminary results will also be discussed at the conference.

Y. Zhu↗
NASA NTRS2005

Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has undertaken analyses of these models. One (the CA model) is driven largely by observations on past patterns of land use change, while the other (the EC model) is driven by mechanisms of the land use change decision at the parcel level. Our project may be the first serious attempt at developing both types of models for the same area, using as much common data as possible. We have identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and plan to continue to revise each model in the light of new data and new lessons learned through continued collaboration. Questions, approaches, findings, publication and presentation lists concerning the research are also presented.

Goetz, Scott J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Hydrodynamic Instability and Thermal Coupling in a Dynamic Model of Liquid-Propellant Combustion

For liquid-propellant combustion, the Landau/Levich hydrodynamic models have been combined and extended to account for a dynamic dependence of the burning rate on the local pressure and temperature fields. Analysis of these extended models is greatly facilitated by exploiting the realistic smallness of the gas-to-liquid density ratio rho. Neglecting thermal coupling effects, an asymptotic expression was then derived for the cellular stability boundary A(sub p)(k) where A(sub p) is the pressure sensitivity of the burning rate and k is the disturbance wavenumber. The results explicitly indicate the stabilizing effects of gravity on long-wave disturbances, and those of viscosity and surface tension on short-wave perturbations, and the instability associated with intermediate wavenumbers for critical negative values of A(sub p). In the limit of weak gravity, hydrodynamic instability in liquid-propellant combustion becomes a long-wave, instability phenomenon, whereas at normal gravity, this instability is first manifested through O(1) wavenumbers. In addition, surface tension and viscosity (both liquid and gas) each produce comparable effects in the large-wavenumber regime, thereby providing important modifications to the previous analyses in which one or more of these effects was neglected. For A(sub p)= O, the Landau/Levich results are recovered in appropriate limiting cases, although this typically corresponds to a hydrodynamically unstable parameter regime for p << 1. In addition to the classical cellular form of hydrodynamic stability, there exists a pulsating form corresponding to the loss of stability of steady, planar burning to time-dependent perturbations. This occurs for negative values of the parameter A(sub p), and is thus absent from the original Landau/Levich models. In the extended model, however, there exists a stable band of negative pressure sensitivities bounded above by the Landau type of instability, and below by this pulsating form of hydrodynamic instability. Indeed, nonsteady modes of combustion have been observed at low pressures in hydroxylammonium nitrate (HAN)-based liquid propellants, which often exhibit negative pressure sensitivities. While nonsteady combustion may correspond to secondary and higher-order bifurcations above the cellular boundary, it may also be a manifestation of this pulsating type of hydrodynamic instability. In the present work, a nonzero temperature sensitivity is incorporated into our previous asymptotic analyses. This entails a coupling of the energy equation to the previous purely hydrodynamic problem, and leads to a significant modification of the pulsating boundary such that, for sufficiently large values of the temperature-sensitivity parameter, liquid-propellant combustion can become intrinsically unstable to this alternative form of hydrodynamic instability. For simplicity, further attention is confined here to the inviscid version of the problem since, despite the fact that viscous and surface-tension effects are comparable, the qualitative nature of the cellular boundary remains preserved in the zero-viscosity limit, as does the existence of the pulsating boundary. The mathematical model adopts the classical assumption that there is no distributed reaction in either the liquid or gas phases, but now the reaction sheet, representing either a pyrolysis reaction or an exothermic decomposition at the liquid/gas interface, is assumed to depend on local conditions there.

Margolis, S. B.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Analysis and Design of Variable Stiffness Composite Cylinders

An investigation of the possible performance improvements of thin circular cylindrical shells through the use of the variable stiffness concept is presented. The variable stiffness concept implies that the stiffness parameters change spatially throughout the structure. This situation is achieved mainly through the use of curvilinear fibers within a fiber-reinforced composite laminate, though the possibility of thickness variations and discrete stiffening elements is also allowed. These three mechanisms are incorporated into the constitutive laws for thin shells through the use of Classical Lamination Theory. The existence of stiffness variation within the structure warrants a formulation of the static equilibrium equations from the most basic principles. The governing equations include sufficient detail to correctly model several types of nonlinearity, including the formation of a nonlinear shell boundary layer as well as the Brazier effect due to nonlinear bending of long cylinders. Stress analysis and initial buckling estimates are formulated for a general variable stiffness cylinder. Results and comparisons for several simplifications of these highly complex governing equations are presented so that the ensuing numerical solutions are considered reliable and efficient enough for in-depth optimization studies. Four distinct cases of loading and stiffness variation are chosen to investigate possible areas of improvement that the variable stiffness concept may offer over traditional constant stiffness and/or stiffened structures. The initial investigation deals with the simplest solution for cylindrical shells in which all quantities are constant around the circumference of the cylinder. This axisymmetric case includes a stiffness variation exclusively in the axial direction, and the only pertinent loading scenarios include constant loads of axial compression, pressure, and torsion. The results for these cases indicate that little improvement over traditional laminates exists through the use of curvilinear fibers, mainly due to the presence of a weak link area within the stiffness variation that limits the ultimate load that the structure can withstand. Rigorous optimization studies reveal that even though slight increases in the critical loads can be produced for designs with an arbitrary variation of the fiber orientation angle, the improvements are not significant when compared to traditional design techniques that utilize ring stiffeners and frames. The second problem that is studied involves arbitrary loading of a cylinder with a stiffness variation that changes only in the circumferential direction. The end effects of the cylinder are ignored, so that the problem takes the form of an analysis of a cross-section for a short cylinder segment. Various load cases including axial compression, pressure, torsion, bending, and transverse shear forces are investigated. It is found that the most significant improvements in load-carrying capability exist for cases which involve loads that also vary around the circumference of the shell, namely bending and shear forces. The stiffness variation of the optimal designs contribute to the increased performance in two ways: lowering the stresses in the critical areas through redistribution of the stresses; and providing a relatively stiff region that alters the buckling behavior of the structure. These results lead to an in-depth optimization study involving weight optimization of a fuselage structure subjected to typical design constraints. Comparisons of the curvilinear fiber format to traditional stiffened structures constructed of isotropic and composite materials are included. It is found that standard variable stiffness designs are quite comparable in terms of weight and load-carrying capability yet offer the added advantage of tailorability of distinct regions of the structure that experience drastically different loading conditions. The last two problems presented in this work involve the nonlinear phenomenon of long tubes under bending. Though this scenario is not as applicable to fuselage structures as the previous problems, the mechanisms that produce the nonlinear effect are ideally suited to be controlled by the variable stiffness concept. This is due to the fact that the dominating influence for long cylinders under bending is the ovalization of the cross-section, which is governed mainly by the stiffness parameters of the cylindrical shell. Possible improvement of the critical buckling moments for these structures is investigated using either a circumferential or axial stiffness variation. For the circumferential case involving infinite length cylinders, it is found that slight improvements can be observed by designing structures that resist the cross-sectional deformation yet do not detract from the buckling resistance at the critical location. The results also indicate that buckling behavior is extremely dependent on cylinder length. This effect is most easily seen in the solution of finite length cylinders under bending that contain an axial stiffness variation. For these structures, the only mechanism that exhibits improved response are those that effectively shorten the length of the cylinder, thus reducing the cross-sectional deformation due to the forced restraint at the ends. It was found that the use of curvilinear fibers was not able to achieve this effect in sufficient degree to resist the deformation, but that ring stiffeners produced the desired response admirably. Thus, it is shown that the variable stiffness concept is most effective at improving the bending response of long cylinders through the use of a circumferential stiffness variation.

Tatting, Brian F.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Real-Time Assimilation of Goes-Derived Products into A Mesoscale Model and It's Impact on Short-Term (06-36hr) Forecasts from 17 October 1998 through the Present

As the parameterizations of surface energy budgets in regional models have become more complete physically, models have the potential to be much more realistic in simulations of coupling between surface radiation, hydrology, and surface energy transfer. Realizing the importance of properly specifying the surface energy budget, many institutions are using land-surface models to represent the lower boundary forcing associated with biophysical processes and soil hydrology. However, the added degrees of freedom due to inclusion of such land-surface schemes require the specification of additional parameters within the model system such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, stream flow, runoff, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. Spatial heterogeneity of these parameters makes correct specification problematic since measurements are not routinely available. A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-IR skin temperature tendencies, solar insolation, and surface albedo into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. The technique has been successfully employed in a number of mesoscale models in case-study mode. We have taken the next step and developed a study to determine if assimilating these types of data into mesoscale models in real-time can improve short-term (648h) forecasts of temperature, relative humidity, and QPF on a daily basis over relatively large regions. Therefore, an operational modeling/assimilation system has been developed at the GHCC during the past summer that allows us to produce simulations out to 48 hours in a timely manor. The PSU/NCAR MM5 is used in a nested configuration with a 25 km grid covering the southeastern third of the US. The model has been on-line since 1 July 1998 and forecast products are posted on our web site. The satellite algorithms that generate data to be assimilated came on-line 17 October 1998. Quantitative assessment of the forecast quality is performed via traditional verification statistics. In addition, invaluable qualitative information is obtained through close collaboration with several NWSFO's who are using the MM5 products in real-time on a daily basis. The assimilation technique has been applied in an off-line mode since 17 October. Results based on bulk statistical verification of surface meteorology over the entire Southeastern US show that assimilating the GOES-derived land surface tendencies and solar radiation results in a significant reduction of the shelter air temperature and RH bias on a daily basis. In fact, the assimilation technique has produced improved temperature and RH forecasts for 97% of the 100 simulations performed to date. Work is currently underway to determine the sensitivity of the assimilation procedure to the availability of satellite data, length of assimilation period, model initialization, and synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. In addition, results from a detailed energy budget analysis using the Early Eta, our operational MM5, and the assimilation runs will help us to better understand the satellite assimilation the land-surface energy budge. Research during the spring-summer of 1999 will focus on the impact of the assimilation technique during the warm season where it is hypothesized that it can have a positive impact on QPF during conditions of weak synoptic-scale forcing.

Lapenta, William M.↗