SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “variational Monte Carlo”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Search for low mass dark matter in DarkSide-50: the bayesian network approach

Abstract We present a novel approach for the search of dark matter in the DarkSide-50 experiment, relying on Bayesian Networks. This method incorporates the detector response model into the likelihood function, explicitly maintaining the connection with the quantity of interest. No assumptions about the linearity of the problem or the shape of the probability distribution functions are required, and there is no need to morph signal and background spectra as a function of nuisance parameters. By expressing the problem in terms of Bayesian Networks, we have developed an inference algorithm based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo to calculate the posterior probability. A clever description of the detector response model in terms of parametric matrices allows us to study the impact of systematic variations of any parameter on the final results. Our approach not only provides the desired information on the parameter of interest, but also potential constraints on the response model. Our results are consistent with recent published analyses and further refine the parameters of the detector response model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1991

Using probabilistic analysis to assess the reliability of predicted SRB aft-skirt stresses

Probabilistic failure analysis is a tool to predict the reliability of a part or system. Probabalistic techniques were used to predict critical stresses which occur in the solid rocket booster aft-skirt during main engine buildup, immediately prior to lift-off. More than any other hold down post (HDP) load component, the Z loads are sensitive to variations in strains and calibration constants. Also, predicted aft-skirt stresses are strongly affected by HDP load variations. Therefore, the instrumented HDP are not effective load transducers for Z loads, and, when used with aft skirt stress indicator equations, yield estimates with large uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation proved to be a straight forward way of studying the overlapping effects of multiple parameters on predicted equipment performance. An advantage of probabilistic analysis is the degree of uncertainty of each parameter as stated explicitly by its probability distribution. It was noted, however, that the choice of parameter distribution had a large effect on the simulation results. Many times these distributions must be assumed. The engineer who is designing the part should be responsible for the choice of parameter distribution.

Richardson, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Robust Stability Analysis of the Space Launch System Control Design: A Singular Value Approach

Classical stability analysis consists of breaking the feedback loops one at a time and determining separately how much gain or phase variations would destabilize the stable nominal feedback system. For typical launch vehicle control design, classical control techniques are generally employed. In addition to stability margins, frequency domain Monte Carlo methods are used to evaluate the robustness of the design. However, such techniques were developed for Single-Input-Single-Output (SISO) systems and do not take into consideration the off-diagonal terms in the transfer function matrix of Multi-Input-Multi-Output (MIMO) systems. Robust stability analysis techniques such as H(sub infinity) and mu are applicable to MIMO systems but have not been adopted as standard practices within the launch vehicle controls community. This paper took advantage of a simple singular-value-based MIMO stability margin evaluation method based on work done by Mukhopadhyay and Newsom and applied it to the SLS high-fidelity dynamics model. The method computes a simultaneous multi-loop gain and phase margin that could be related back to classical margins. The results presented in this paper suggest that for the SLS system, traditional SISO stability margins are similar to the MIMO margins. This additional level of verification provides confidence in the robustness of the control design.

Pei, Jing↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Grid Strength under Uncertain Renewable Generation

The increasing displacement of synchronous generators with renewable resources such as wind and solar via power electronic interfaces causes a reduction in short-circuit strength and weak grid issues. The variation and uncertainty of renewable energy increase challenges for identifying weak grid conditions. This paper proposes an efficient method to analyze the impact of uncertain renewable energy on grid strength. The proposed method uses the probabilistic collocation method (PCM) to approximate the results of grid strength assessment under uncertain renewable generation, in order to reduce computational burden without compromising result accuracy when compared with traditional Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). To improve the accuracy of the approximation results, the proposed method integrates the K-means clustering technique with PCM to select the approximation samples of input variables. The efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparison with MCS on the modified IEEE 9-bus system and modified IEEE 39-bus system with multiple renewable generators.

grid strength↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of ferromagnetic electrode length and thickness on Magnetic Tunnel Junction-Based Molecular Spintronic Devices (MTJMSD)

A knowledge gap exists about the impact of variation in length and thickness of ferromagnetic(FM) electrodes on molecular spintronics devices’ ability to manifest molecular coupling impact. Magnetic Tunnel Junction-Based Molecular Spintronic Devices (MTJMSDs) are potential candidates for inventing highly correlated materials and devices and investigating the fundamental science of organic spintronics. This paper reports our experi- mental observations providing the dramatic impact of variation in ferromagnetic electrode length and thickness on paramagnetic molecule-based MTJMSD. Room temperature transport studies were performed to investigate the effect of FM electrode thickness. On the other hand, magnetic force microscopy measurements were con- ducted to understand the effect of FM electrode length extending beyond the molecular junction area, i.e., the site where paramagnetic molecules bridged between two FM. In the strong molecular coupling regime, transport study suggested thickness variation caused ~1000 to million-fold differences in junction conductivity. MFM study revealed near-zero magnetic contrast for pillar-shaped MTJMSD without any extended FM electrode. However, MFM images showed a multitude of microscopic magnetic phases on cross junction shaped MTJMSD where FM electrodes extended beyond the junction area. To understand the intriguing experimental results, we conducted an in-depth theoretical study using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) approach. MCS study utilized a Heisenberg atomic model of cross junction shaped MTJMSD to gain insights about room temperature transport and MFM experimental observations of microscopic MTJMSD. To make this study applicable for a wide variety of MTJMSDs, we systematically studied the effect of variation in molecular coupling strength between magnetic molecules and ferromagnetic (FM) electrodes of various dimensions. Here, our theoretical results suggest 25 atoms thick FM electrode show very weak molecular coupling impact and of the same order of experimentally studied FM electrode dimensions showing weak effect. Also, MCS results agree with experimentally observed multiple magnetic phases on lengthy FM electrodes of an MTJMSD.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multisublattice cluster expansion study of short-range ordering in iron-substituted strontium titanate

Owing to the challenges in obtaining realistic atomic configurations in large chemical phase spaces, it is not straightforward to describe structure–property relations in materials exhibiting configurational disorder. One example is iron-substituted strontium titanate (SrTi 1–x Fe x O 3–d , STF), a promising perovskite-derivative cathode material in solid oxide fuel cells that exhibits full solid solubility 0 ≤ x ≤ 1 and a tendency to exhibit short-range order. Here we demonstrate a multisublattice cluster expansion (CE) framework and apply it to STF across the full composition range. The CE approach is distinct from more traditional CE formulations in that clusters are defined explicitly by the chemical species distributed among multiple sublattices, rather than via cluster functions of occupation variables with decoration. The modified CE approach makes it easy to distinguish meaningful chemical interactions that are harder to extract from conventional CE, since for the latter chemical identity in a cluster is expressed as a product of site occupations. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) is implemented as a regression analysis tool to select key clusters and avoid overfitting. We demonstrate this formulation on STF, and show that it can accurately predict configurational energies in comparison to conventional CE. From the key clusters, we identify that short-range ordering between substitutional Fe and oxygen vacancies (V O ) results in the formation of Fe–VO strings. In addition, we consider the stability of STF through CE-based Monte Carlo (MC) simulations and confirm the presence of superstructures that were previously observed in transmission electron microscopy. In this work, analysis of atomic configurations from MC samples reveals variations in the oxidation state of Fe atoms, which can be explained by the ordering tendency of Fe and V O . The cluster description and selection formalism described here may be applied to other disordered multisublattice systems for accurate and efficient material modeling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-throughput multimodal exploration of a nanocrystalline Cu-Ag library

Sputter-deposited, nanocrystalline Cu-Ag thin films produced across a broad compositional and deposition-parameter space were evaluated to unravel the process-structure-property relationships important for creating hard, conductive electrical contacts and coatings. Combinatorial deposition involving pulsed direct current magnetron sputtering of elemental targets enabled swift examination of nearly the full range of alloy compositions and a relevant portion of deposition atomistics. Several high-throughput characterization modalities were employed to evaluate the chemistry, structure, and properties of the films. The resultant hardness, modulus, film density, crystal texture, and resistivity were analyzed in terms of key deposition characteristics (incident atom kinetic energy and incidence angle) predicted by binary-collision, kinematic Monte Carlo simulations. The study revealed improved hardness, parabolic resistivity dependence on composition, and compositional and process dependencies of film tarnishing. The results are discussed in the context of variations in microstructure and film density. Transmission electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction demonstrate several forms of compositional variation including solute segregation to grain boundaries as well as periodic, intragranular compositional modulations. Annealing of a Cu-rich alloy film exhibiting grain boundary segregation showed that this as-deposited, compositional variation is not stable above 100 °C. Finally, the Cu-Ag system is shown to have potential for hard, conductive, tarnish-resistant and room temperature-stable nanocrystalline thin films across the composition space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1998

Application of the Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis Method to the Analysis of a Realistic Structure

The Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis method is a new technique for obtaining the statistics of a desired response engineering quantity for a structure with non-deterministic parameters. The method uses measured data from modal testing of the structure as the input random variables, rather than more "primitive" quantities like geometry or material variation. This modal information is much more comprehensive and easily measured than the "primitive" information. The probabilistic analysis is carried out using either response surface reliability methods or Monte Carlo simulation. A previous work verified the feasibility of the PDS method on a simple seven degree-of-freedom spring-mass system. In this paper, extensive issues involved with applying the method to a realistic three-substructure system are examined, and free and forced response analyses are performed. The results from using the method are promising, especially when the lack of alternatives for obtaining quantitative output for probabilistic structures is considered.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Application of the Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis Method to Realistic Structures

The Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis method is a technique for obtaining the statistics of a desired response engineering quantity for a structure with non-deterministic parameters. The method uses measured data from modal testing of the structure as the input random variables, rather than more "primitive" quantities like geometry or material variation. This modal information is much more comprehensive and easily measured than the "primitive" information. The probabilistic analysis is carried out using either response surface reliability methods or Monte Carlo simulation. In previous work, the feasibility of the PDS method applied to a simple seven degree-of-freedom spring-mass system was verified. In this paper, extensive issues involved with applying the method to a realistic three-substructure system are examined, and free and forced response analyses are performed. The results from using the method are promising, especially when the lack of alternatives for obtaining quantitative output for probabilistic structures is considered.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Emulation With Uncertainty Quantification of Regional Sea‐Level Change Caused by the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Projecting regional sea‐level change under various climate‐change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice‐mass change, which requires substantial computational cost if applied to probabilistic frameworks requiring thousands to millions of samples. Here we build emulators of regional sea‐level change at 27 coastal locations, due to the GRD effects associated with future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change over the 21st century. The emulators are evaluated against a numerical sea‐level model applied to an ensemble of ice‐sheet model simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2100. We build a physics‐based emulator using a recent sensitivity kernel approach and compare it to machine learning based emulators (neural network and conditional variational autoencoder methods). In order to quantify uncertainty, we derive well‐calibrated prediction intervals for regional sea‐level change via split‐conformal inference and linear regression, and show that Monte Carlo dropout does not yield well‐calibrated uncertainties in this instance. We also demonstrate substantial gains in computational efficiency using both the physics‐based emulator and neural networks in comparison to the numerical model for the complete regional sea‐level solution. Overall, we find the physics‐based emulator modestly outperforms the machine learning emulators for this problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1975

A Monte Carlo analysis of the effects of instrumentation errors on aircraft parameter identification

An output error estimation algorithm was used to evaluate the effects of both static and dynamic instrumentation errors on the estimation of aircraft stability and control parameters. A Monte Carlo analysis, using simulated cruise flight data, was performed for a high performance military aircraft, a large commercial transport, and a small general-aviation aircraft. The effects of variations in the information content of the flight data, resulting from two different choices of control input maneuvers, were also determined. The results indicate that unmodeled instrumentation errors can cause inaccuracies in the estimated parameters which are comparable to their nominal values. Control input errors and angular accelerometer lags were found to be most significant of the instrumentation errors evaluated, and the perturbations they produce are much larger than those arising from the combined effects of static errors and white noise in the output response measurements.

Bryant, W. H.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying the Sensitivity of Condition Incidence Parameters in the Evidence Library

One approach to quantifying spaceflight risk at NASA makes use event driven probabilistic techniques. The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is such a tool that estimates medical risk metrics via simulation and enables optimization of medical resources subject to mission constraints [1]. Previous analyses have informed medical set composition, exercise countermeasures, and water intake, where each analysis quantifies the risk associated with proposed variations in system design. As future mission profiles extend beyond Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) and lengthen in duration, understanding these risks and contributing factors is critical. MEDPRAT employs Monte Carlo sampling techniques to simulate missions and track the occurrence of medical events. These events follow fault-tree-like progressions through levels of severity and mitigation via medical treatment to many possible outcomes and these are reported throughout the mission. Making this possible, are the medical databases that contain evidence gathered by the Human Research Program (HRP). Quantifying the impact of uncertainty or variability in the input data is an important step in evaluating the credibility of modeling and simulation results. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of medical risk metrics with respect to the condition incidence parameters within the Evidence Library (EL) [2] as the medical database input for MEDPRAT. The medical conditions, contained in the EL, are equipped with incidence rates that describe the likelihood that the condition will occur. These incidence rates reflect historical spaceflight data or when appropriate, terrestrial data. In this presentation, we will explore how uncertainty in these rates propagate to the medical risk described by MEDPRAT. These results identify the conditions and parameters with the largest contribution to medical risks.

Ian Lim↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of space charge effects in the MicroBooNE LArTPC using cosmic muons

Large liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs), especially those operating near the surface, are susceptible to space charge effects. In the context of LArTPCs, the space charge effect is the build-up of slow-moving positive ions in the detector primarily due to ionization from cosmic rays, leading to a distortion of the electric field within the detector. This effect leads to a displacement in the reconstructed position of signal ionization electrons in LArTPC detectors ("spatial distortions"), as well as to variations in the amount of electron-ion recombination experienced by ionization throughout the volume of the TPC. We present techniques that can be used to measure and correct for space charge effects in large LArTPCs by making use of cosmic muons, including the use of track pairs to unambiguously pin down spatial distortions in three dimensions. Finally, the performance of these calibration techniques are studied using both Monte Carlo simulation and MicroBooNE data, utilizing a UV laser system as a means to estimate the systematic bias associated with the calibration methodology.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2005

Influence of a fat layer on the near infrared spectra of human muscle: quantitative analysis based on two-layered Monte Carlo simulations and phantom experiments

The influence of fat thickness on the diffuse reflectance spectra of muscle in the near infrared (NIR) region is studied by Monte Carlo simulations of a two-layer structure and with phantom experiments. A polynomial relationship was established between the fat thickness and the detected diffuse reflectance. The influence of a range of optical coefficients (absorption and reduced scattering) for fat and muscle over the known range of human physiological values was also investigated. Subject-to-subject variation in the fat optical coefficients and thickness can be ignored if the fat thickness is less than 5 mm. A method was proposed to correct the fat thickness influence. c2005 Optical Society of America.

NASA Discipline Life Sciences Technologies↗

NASA NTRS1974

Pre-mare cratering and early solar system history

An evaluation of the application of the high extra-lunar flux in pre-mare times to more general problems of early solar system history is attempted by combining the results of dynamic studies with lunar chronological data. Dynamical studies permit separate evaluation of the possible sources for both the normal flux during the first 600 m.y. years of lunar history as well as the peak which apparently occurred 4.0 b.y. ago. Dynamical studies have been carried out in order to determine the extent to which a heliocentric flux could be confined to the Moon (and Earth). A Monte Carlo method has been used to calculate the relative impact rates of planet-crossing bodies with the moon and the terrestrial planets. It is concluded that the time-variation of the flux on these planets is closely related to that on the moon.

Wetherill, G. W.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probing configurational disorder in ZnGeN 2 using cluster-based Monte Carlo

ZnGeN 2 is sought as a semiconductor with comparable lattice constant to GaN and tunable band gap for integration in optoelectronic devices. Configurational disorder on the cation sublattice of ZnGeN 2 can strongly modify the electronic structure compared to the ordered material, and both ordered and disordered forms of ZnGeN 2 are candidates for light-emitting diodes and other emitters. The nonisovalent character of the disordered species (Zn 2+ and Ge 4+ ) subjects the cation ordering to strong short-range order effects. To model these effects, we use Monte Carlo (MC) simulations utilizing a cluster expansion to approximate formation enthalpy. Representative disordered configurations in 1024-atom supercells are relaxed in density functional theory calculations. From the MC structures, we extract a short-range order parameter (the N-cation coordination motif), and two long-range order parameters (Bragg-Williams and stretching parameters), and examine their correlations. We perform a thermodynamic integration to determine the mixing entropy and free energy. ZnGeN 2 exhibits a first-order phase transition with pronounced discontinuities in enthalpy and entropy, as well as in the structural order parameters. We discuss the relationship between the effective temperature used in the MC simulation and the growth temperatures in experiment in relation to the crossover from the nonequilibrium to the equilibrium growth regime. This work expands on current models of site disorder in ZnGeN 2 and provides atomic structure models with a systematic variation of the degree of cation disorder.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2021

Structural and chemical disorder enhance point defect diffusion and atomic transport in Ni 3 Al-based γ' phase

The ordered L1 2 γ' Ni 3 Al intermetallic inclusions are routinely used as strengthening constituents in Ni-based superalloys and recent high-entropy alloys. As there are different metallic elements relative to the alloy matrix, the composition of γ' phase inclusions usually suffers some variations. In this work, we studied the elemental partition and its influence on atomic transport properties in a model (NiCo) 3 Al γ' phase with chemical and structural disorder. Combining the Monte Carlo and molecular static techniques, we first determined the elemental distribution in such compositionally-complexed γ' phase. The results suggest that Co tends to segregate, which profoundly influences defect energetics and diffusion properties. By modeling thermally activated diffusion by molecular dynamics, we found that chemical disorder induced by Co can enhance vacancy diffusion while significantly suppress diffusion via interstitial atom migration, as compared to the stoichiometric γ' Ni 3 Al. We further reveal that these observations are closely related to the defect energetics in these systems. Furthermore, our results explain the effects of disorder, long- and short-range orders on the diffusion properties in multicomponent intermetallic alloys, which helps to understand the stability and, thus, γ'-phase-assisted strengthening at different conditions including annealing and irradiation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved heavy-ion PID using scintillation light detector with neural network analysis: a Monte Carlo simulation study

The photon collection efficiency of gaseous scintillator detectors varies according to the position of the impinging charged particles in the medium that generates scintillation light. Thus, when impinging particles are distributed over a large area, the intrinsic photon-number resolution of the system is affected by a large variation. This work presents and discusses a method for adjusting the total number of detected photons to account for variation in the photon collection efficiency as a function of the position of the light source within the scintillating medium. The method was developed and validated by processing data from systematic simulation studies based on GEANT4 that model the response of the Energy Loss Optical Scintillation System (ELOSS) detector. The position of the charged particle is calculated using a deep neural network algorithm. This is accomplished by analyzing the distribution of scintillation light recorded by the array of photosensors. The estimated particle position is then used to calculate the correction factor and adjust the amount of captured light to account for variations in the photon collection efficiency. The neural network algorithm provides excellent tracking capabilities, achieving sub-millimeter position resolution and an angular resolution of 12 mrad, approaching the performance of traditional tracking detectors (e.g., drift chambers). The present method can be generalized to any optical scintillation system where the photon collection efficiency depends on the position of the impinging particle.

Heavy-ion detectors↗