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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1999

Effects of Orbital Lifetime Reduction on the Long-Term Earth Satellite Population as Modeled by EVOLVE 4.0

The latest update of the NASA orbital debris environment model, EVOLVE 4.0, has been used to study the effect of various proposed debris mitigation measures, including the NASA 25-year guideline. EVOLVE 4.0, which includes updates of the NASA breakup, solar activity, and the orbit propagator models, a GEO analysis option, and non-fragmentation debris source models, allows for the statistical modeling and predicted growth of the particle population >1 mm in characteristic length in LEO and GEO orbits. The initial implementation of this &odel has been to study the sensitivity of the overall LEO debris environment to mitigation measures designed to limit the lifetime of intact objects in LEO orbits. The mitigation measures test matrix for this study included several commonly accepted testing schemes, i.e., the variance of the maximum LEO lifetime from 10 to 50 years, the date of the initial implementation of this policy, the shut off of all explosions at some specified date, and the inclusion of disposal orbits. All are timely studies in that all scenarios have been suggested by researchers and satellite operators as options for the removal of debris from LEO orbits.

Krisko, Paula H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Changes in Oculomotor Behavior and PVT Reaction Time During One Night of Sleep Deprivation

INTRODUCTION: The Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT) is a widely used objective measure of sustained attention, alertness, and fatigue. Previous studies consistently show that prolonged wakefulness and disrupted sleep patterns lead to increased lapses of attention and slower reaction times. These findings have critical implications for various professions, including healthcare, aviation, transportation safety, and spaceflight. In this study, we employed linear mixed models (LMM) to investigate hourly-measured 5-minute PVT reaction times during one night of total sleep deprivation. Our goal was to characterize the contribution of homeostatic sleep pressure (time awake) and circadian phase (salivary melatonin levels) on the dynamics of PVT reaction time. MATERIALS & METHODS: Data from twelve human participants were used in the analysis. Participants were healthy non-smokers, aged 18 and 40, with normal sleep habits defined as Pittsburg Sleep Quality Index scores < 5, and Morningness – Eveningness Questionnaire scores > 42 and < 58, respectively. Participants followed a constant-routine protocol and arrived at the NASA sleep laboratory approximately 1 to 2 hours after their habitual waking time. Tympanic temperature was measured every 30 min to provide a real-time estimate of circadian phase. Participants were required to stay awake throughout the laboratory experiment, which continued until their tympanic temperature had returned to baseline levels. This approach ensured that we could capture each participant's circadian trough and recovery, typically occurring between 24 and 26 hours after waking. The PVT and saliva melatonin were measured every hour, starting approximately from 3 hours after awakening. More information about the measurement protocol can be found in the publication by Stone et al. We used PVT reaction times between 100 and 10000 ms to calculate Reciprocal Reaction Times (RRTs). LMM models were employed to assess the contribution of time awake and saliva melatonin levels on changes in RRTs. Two models were created: the first model treated time awake as a fixed effect and the second model considered both the salivary melatonin level and time awake as fixed effects. Participants were included as a random effect in both models. We compared the models using an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The models were computed using the 'lmer' function from the 'lme4' package in R, and LMM p-values were determined using Satterthwaite's method. RESULTS: We found that time awake had a statistically significant effect on PVT RRTs during one night of sleep deprivation [χ2 = 2132.4, df = 1, p < 0.001]. In addition, the model including both saliva melatonin levels and time awake was statistically significantly better than one that uses just time awake [χ2 = 17.4, df = 1, p < 0.001]. DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION: As expected, these preliminary results suggest that the time awake and circadian phase each contribute to performance reductions as measured by the PVT. Future analyses will explore the contributions of other factors to the model.

sleep deprivation↗
NASA NTRS2001

Sensing, Spectra and Scaling: What's in Store for Land Observations

Bill Pecora's 1960's vision of the future, using spacecraft-based sensors for mapping the environment and exploring for resources, is being implemented today. New technology has produced better sensors in space such as the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and SPOT, and creative researchers are continuing to find new applications. However, with existing sensors, and those intended for launch in this century, the potential for extracting information from the land surface is far from being exploited. The most recent technology development is imaging spectrometry, the acquisition of images in hundreds of contiguous spectral bands, such that for any pixel a complete reflectance spectrum can be acquired. Experience with Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) has shown that, with proper attention paid to absolute calibration, it is possible to acquire apparent surface reflectance to 5% accuracy without any ground-based measurement. The data reduction incorporates in educated guess of the aerosol scattering, development of a precipitable water vapor map from the data and mapping of cirrus clouds in the 1.38 micrometer band. This is not possible with TM. The pixel size in images of the earth plays and important role in the type and quality of information that can be derived. Less understood is the coupling between spatial and spectral resolution in a sensor. Recent work has shown that in processing the data to derive the relative abundance of materials in a pixel, also known is unmixing, the pixel size is an important parameter. A variance in the relative abundance of materials among the pixels is necessary to be able to derive the endmembers or pure material constituent spectra. In most cases, the 1 km pixel size for the Earth Observing System Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument is too large to meet the variance criterion. A pointable high spatial and spectral resolution imaging spectrometer in orbit will be necessary to make the major next step in our understanding of the solid earth surface and its changing face.

Goetz, Alexander F. H.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Aircraft NO/x/ emissions and stratospheric ozone reductions - Another look

New estimates for stratospheric ozone perturbations attributable to supersonic transport (SST) emissions are presented. First, a review is given of recent data pointing to lower OH concentrations below 30 km, as compared to the values predicted by photochemical models. The evidence for lower OH comes from a wide range of laboratory and atmospheric studies. The sensitivity of theoretical estimates of ozone change to OH abundances, and the coupling mechanisms between the O(x)-NO(x)-HO(x)-Cl(x) families which are responsible for the sensitivity, are discussed. Updated calculations for SST-induced ozone alterations are compared with older predictions. For example, assuming continuous aircraft injection of NO2 at 20 km at a rate of 1 x 10 to the 9th kg per year (globally), a 4% ozone decrease, is now calculated where earlier a 3% ozone increase was found. This large variance from previous forecasts suggests that new assessments of certain other polluting agents, particularly nitrogen fertilizers, are needed.

Turco, R. P.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The meandering Gulf Stream as seen by the Geosat altimeter - Surface transport, position, and velocity variance from 73 deg to 46 deg W

Results are presented of an analysis of the surface geostrophic velocity field for the Gulf Stream region for the position, structure, and surface transport of the Gulf Stream for 2.5 yr of the Geosat altimeter Exact Repeat Mission. Synthetic data using a Gaussian velocity profile were generated and fit to the sea surface residual heights to create a synthetic mean sea surface height field and profiles of absolute geostrophic currents. An analysis of the model parameters and the actual geostrophic velocity profiles revealed two different flow regimes for the Gulf Stream connected by a narrow transition region coincident with the New England Seamount Chain. The upstream region was found to exhibit relatively straight Gulf Stream paths, long Eulerian time scales, and eastward propagating meanders. The downstream region had more large meanders, no consistent propagation direction, and shorter Eulerian time scales. A 25-percent reduction in surface transport occurred in the transition region, with a corresponding reduction in current speed and no change in Gulf Stream width.

Kelly, Kathryn A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermomechanical Processing of Uranium Alloys with 10 and 50 Weight Percent Zirconium

This work focuses on casting and thermomechanical processing for moderate sized (500-1000g) 10% by weight and 50% by weight uranium-zirconium alloys. Three castings of uranium – 10wt% zirconium and a fourth casting of uranium – 50wt% zirconium were completed using different castings processes. The first casting process relied on only induction mixing within the VIM system thereby eliminating the need for an arc-melting feedstock preparation step. The second casting process used the arc-melting process prior for feedstock to the same VIM system. In this study, the induction mixing process alone with a graphite crucible appears insufficient for the fabrication of UZr alloys. Graphite is suitable with the use of master alloy UZr feedstock produced by arc-melting. There was a moderate increase of approximately 100 ppm of carbon within the U10Zr alloys. However, there was a near 1000 ppm increase of carbon in the U50Zr alloy. This carbon content is considered too high for forming processes, and therefore, warrants the use of a ceramic crucible for UZr castings near 50wt% zirconium. Zirconia does not appear suitable for UZr castings near 50wt% zirconium. The use of Beryllia or Thoria may be a more suitable option. However, due to the significantly lower liquidus and lower zirconium content, Zirconia crucibles do appear viable for carbon reduction in the U10Zr system. Two thermomechanical processes are also studied in this work - hot extrusion of the U50Zr system and heat treatment in an argon atmosphere. This work demonstrated that extrusion of the U50Zr alloy near 680°C is a viable choice even with +1000 ppm carbon. Extrusion of the U50Zr system near 630°C was unsuccessful and does not appear viable unless significant force and tooling strength is available. There appears to be a moderate increase in extrudate hardness when compared to as-cast. Heat-treatment reduced the hardness of as-cast alloys in the U10Zr castings as well as resolve some variance in the microstructures. However, for the U50Zr billet that did not successfully extrude at 630°C, heat treatment at 900°C for 96 hours did not have a significant impact on hardness or microstructure.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2002

On the Regulation of the Pacific Warm Pool Temperature

In the tropical western Pacific, regions of the highest sea surface temperature (SST) and the largest cloud cover are found to have the largest surface heating, primarily due to the weak evaporative cooling associated with weak winds. This situation is in variance with the suggestions that the temperature in the Pacific warm pool is regulated either by the reduced solar heating due to an enhanced cloudiness or by the enhanced evaporative cooling due to an elevated SST. It is clear that an enhanced surface heating in an enhanced convection region is not sustainable and must be interrupted by variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation. As the deep convective regions shift away from regions of high SST due primarily to seasonal variation and secondarily to interannual variation of the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation, both trade wind and evaporative cooling in the high SST region increase, leading to a reduction in SST. We conclude that the evaporative cooling associated with the seasonal and interannual variations of trade winds in the primary factor that prevent the warm pool SST from increasing to a value much higher than what is observed.

Chou, Ming-Dah↗
NASA NTRS1999

Ventilatory responses to dynamic exercise elicited by intramuscular sensors

PURPOSE: Eight subjects, aged 27.0+/-1.6 yr, performed incremental workload cycling to investigate the contribution of skeletal muscle mechano- and metaboreceptors to ventilatory control during dynamic exercise. METHODS: Each subject performed four bouts of exercise: exercise with no intervention (CON); exercise with bilateral thigh cuffs inflated to 90 mm Hg (CUFF); exercise with application of lower-body positive pressure (LBPP) to 45 torr (PP); and exercise with 90 mm Hg thigh cuff inflation and 45 torr LBPP (CUFF+PP). Ventilatory responses and pulmonary gas exchange variables were collected breath-by-breath with concomitant measurement of leg intramuscular pressure. RESULTS: Ventilation (VE) was significantly elevated from CON during PP and CUFF+PP at workloads corresponding to > or = 60% CON peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak) and during CUFF at workloads > or = 80% CON VO2peak, P < 0.05. The VO2 at which ventilatory threshold occurred was significantly reduced from CON (2.17+/-0.28 L x min(-1)) to 1.60+/-0.19 L x min(-1), 1.45+/-0.15 L x min(-1), and 1.15+/-0.11 L x min(-1) during CUFF, PP, and CUFF+PP, respectively. The slope of the linear regression describing the VE/CO2 output relationship was increased from CON by approximately 22% during CUFF, 40% during PP, and 41% during CUFF+PP. CONCLUSIONS: As intramuscular pressure was significantly elevated immediately upon application of LBPP during PP and CUFF+PP without a concomitant increase in VE, it seems unlikely that LBPP-induced increases in VE can be attributed to activation of the mechanoreflex. These findings suggest that LBPP-induced reductions in perfusion pressure and decreases in venous outflow resulting from inflation of bilateral thigh cuffs may generate a metabolite sensitive intramuscular ventilatory stimulus.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the Influence of Linker Substitution and Ratios on Cooperative Framework Flexibility through the Mixed-Linker Approach

Cooperatively flexible metal–organic frameworks that exhibit step-shaped, or Type V-like, adsorption–desorption profiles can lower requisite pressure–temperature swings and thus energy input, necessary for an array of gas storage, delivery, and separations applications. However, such benefits are lost if the pressure threshold of the adsorption and desorption steps at a given temperature does not match the conditions dictated by the application, such as H 2 storage and delivery or olefin–paraffin separations. Unfortunately, the discovery of cooperatively flexible frameworks remains wholly serendipitous and de novo design remains impossible. Accordingly, there is a great need to further our understanding of flexibility such that we can intuitively derivatize known frameworks and, ultimately, design entirely new ones to meet the requisite conditions of energy-consumptive processes. In this work, we demonstrate that the mixed-linker, or multivariate, approach is a powerful tool for the derivation of a known flexible framework, with variances in linker substitution and ratio giving rise to a family wherein significant changes to the step-shaped adsorption–desorption profiles for multiple adsorbates are observed. Specifically, we report 12 isostructural mixed-linker derivatives of CdIF-13 (sod–Cd(benzimidazolate) 2 ) with six point-modified benzimidazole linkers spontaneously synthesized through prototypical solvothermal conditions. Furthermore, each is shown by PXRD to exhibit similar reversible flexibility to CdIF-13 and by TGA and DSC to be similarly thermally stable. Isothermal gas adsorption measurements with N 2 at 77 K, CO 2 at 195 K, and propane at 298 K demonstrate the wide-ranging, adsorbate-dependent effects of linker substitution and ratio, including dramatic reductions in the adsorption threshold pressure, evolution of multiple steps, and complete absence of observable adsorption. Aided by prior crystallographic characterization of CdIF-13, the observed trends were analyzed in an attempt to resolve the influence of linker substitution and ratios on structural behavior. In total, this work illustrates how the mixed-linker approach enables the synthesis and study of a large catalog of functionally modified frameworks, which can help identify the variables that influence flexibility and sorption behavior.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1987

Radial orbit error reduction and sea surface topography determination using satellite altimetry

A method is presented in satellite altimetry that attempts to simultaneously determine the geoid and sea surface topography with minimum wavelengths of about 500 km and to reduce the radial orbit error caused by geopotential errors. The modeling of the radial orbit error is made using the linearized Lagrangian perturbation theory. Secular and second order effects are also included. After a rather extensive validation of the linearized equations, alternative expressions of the radial orbit error are derived. Numerical estimates for the radial orbit error and geoid undulation error are computed using the differences of two geopotential models as potential coefficient errors, for a SEASAT orbit. To provide statistical estimates of the radial distances and the geoid, a covariance propagation is made based on the full geopotential covariance. Accuracy estimates for the SEASAT orbits are given which agree quite well with already published results. Observation equations are develped using sea surface heights and crossover discrepancies as observables. A minimum variance solution with prior information provides estimates of parameters representing the sea surface topography and corrections to the gravity field that is used for the orbit generation. The simulation results show that the method can be used to effectively reduce the radial orbit error and recover the sea surface topography.

Engelis, Theodossios↗
NASA NTRS1996

Submaximal exercise VO2 and Qc during 30-day 6 degrees head-down bed rest with isotonic and isokinetic exercise training

BACKGROUND: Maintaining intermediary metabolism is necessary for the health and well-being of astronauts on long-duration spaceflights. While peak oxygen uptake (VO2) is consistently decreased during prolonged bed rest, submaximal VO2 is either unchanged or decreased. METHODS: Submaximal exercise metabolism (61 +/- 3% peak VO2) was measured during ambulation (AMB day-2) and on bed rest days 4, 11, and 25 in 19 healthy men (32-42 yr) allocated into no exercise (NOE, N = 5) control, and isotonic exercise (ITE, N = 7) and isokinetic exercise (IKE, N = 7) training groups. Exercise training was conducted supine for two 30-min periods per day for 6 d per week: ITE training was intermittent at 60-90% peak VO2; IKE training was 10 sets of 5 repetitions of peak knee flexion-extension force at a velocity of 100 degrees s-1. Cardiac output was measured with the indirect Fick CO2 method, and plasma volume with Evans blue dye dilution. RESULTS: Supine submaximal exercise VO2 decreased significantly (*p < 0.05) by 10.3%* with ITE and by 7.3%* with IKE; similar to the submaximal cardiac output decrease of 14.5%* (ITE) and 20.3%* (IKE), but different from change in peak VO2 (+1.4% with ITE and -10.2%* with IKE) and decrease in plasma volume of -3.7% (ITE) and -18.0%* (IKE). Reduction of submaximal VO2 during bed rest correlated 0.79 (p < 0.01) with submaximal Qc, but was not related to change in peak VO2 or plasma volume. CONCLUSION: Reduction in submaximal oxygen uptake during prolonged bed rest is related to decrease in exercise but not resting cardiac output; perturbations in active skeletal muscle metabolism may be involved.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Representing the Sub-Grid Heterogeneity of Surface Precipitation in A General Circulation Model

Precipitation variability on spatial scales smaller than a typical general circulation model (GCM) grid box is often neglected, with the grid-mean precipitation rate being applied uniformly to underlying surface tiles. This reduces the extrema seen by the surface, with corresponding reductions in surface runoff and altered land-atmosphere fluxes. Here we present a novel approach to stochastically distribute precipitation across sub-grid surface tiles within a GCM. Based on 4 km Stage IV precipitation data, the scheme parameterizes the dry area fraction as a function of grid mean precipitation rate, and defines the relative distribution of intensities across non-dry surface tiles. To incorporate memory and mimic the persistence of precipitating storms, the relative intensity assigned to each sub-grid tile is determined by an autoregressive process. Using single column experiments, the scheme is shown to reproduce observed precipitation statistics at the scale of model surface tiles. We also document impacts on surface hydrology and energy partitioning, with notable increases in precipitation runoff, surface temperature variance, and the Bowen ratio.

GCM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting battery capacity and power degradation with multi-task learning

Lithium-ion batteries degrade due to usage and exposure to environmental conditions, which affects their capability to store energy and supply power. Accurately predicting the capacity and power fade of lithium-ion battery cells is challenging due to intrinsic manufacturing variances and coupled nonlinear ageing mechanisms. In this paper, we propose a data-driven prognostics framework to predict both capacity and power fade simultaneously with multi-task learning. The model is able to predict the degradation trajectory of both capacity and internal resistance together with knee-points and end-of-life points accurately at early-life stage. The validation shows an average percentage error of 2.37% and 1.24% for the prediction of capacity fade and resistance rise, respectively. The model's ability to accurately predict the degradation, facing capacity and resistance estimation errors, further demonstrates the model's robustness and generalizability. Compared with single-task learning models for forecasting capacity and power degradation, the model shows a significant prediction accuracy improvement and computational cost reduction. This work presents the highlights of multi-task learning in the degradation prognostics for lithium-ion batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatial impacts of technological innovations on the levelized cost of energy for offshore wind power plants in the United States

Recent studies predict significant decreases in the future levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of offshore wind energy, much of which is attributed to anticipated cost reductions from technological innovation. This study evaluates the spatial variability of LCOE caused by technology-induced decreases in a range of capital, operational, and financial cost categories. A spatial cost model of fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind plants is used to model the impact across thousands of potential United States sites. A specified change in an individual turbine subsystem cost produces a range of LCOE outcomes due to the varying geospatial characteristics of the considered sites and the nonlinear, interactive dependency on these input parameters; for example, a 10.8% improvement in net capacity factor can reduce LCOE by between 6% and 20% at different sites. This work expands upon the existing offshore wind literature, which typically evaluates cost sensitivities at a single site and does not consider the spatial variance in LCOE. The results suggest that the impact of technological innovations can be considerable and should be considered on a spatial as well as temporal basis when prioritizing technology innovation research or funding decisions to advance offshore wind technologies in the United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2019

Modelling above-ground biomass stock over Norway using national forest inventory data with ArcticDEM and Sentinel-2 data

Boreal forests constitute a large portion of the global forest area, yet they are undersampled through field surveys, and only a few remotely sensed data sources provide structural information wall-to-wall throughout the boreal domain. ArcticDEM is a collection of high-resolution (2 m) space-borne stereogrammetric digital surface models (DSM) covering the entire land area north of 60° of latitude. The free-availability of ArcticDEM data offers new possibilities for aboveground biomass mapping (AGB) across boreal forests, and thus it is necessary to evaluate the potential for these data to map AGB over alternative open-data sources (i.e., Sentinel-2). This study was performed over the entire land area of Norway north of 60° of latitude, and the Norwegian national forest inventory (NFI) was used as a source of field data composed of accurately geolocated field plots (n=7710) systematically distributed across the study area. Separate random forest models were fitted using NFI data, and corresponding remotely sensed data consisting of either: i) a canopy height model (ArcticCHM) obtained by subtracting a high-quality digital terrain model (DTM) from the ArcticDEM DSM height values, ii) Sentinel-2 (S2), or iii) a combination of the two (ArcticCHM+S2). Furthermore, we assessed the effect of the forest- and terrain-specific factors on the models’ predictive accuracy. The best model (,i.e., ArcticCHM+S2) explained nearly 60% of the variance of the training set, which translated in the largest accuracy in terms of root mean square error (RMSE=41.4 t/ha). This result highlights the synergy between 3D and multispectral data in AGB modelling. Furthermore, this study showed that despite the importance of ArcticCHM variables, the S2 model performed slightly better than ArcticCHM model. This finding highlights some of the limitations of ArcticDEM, which, despite the unprecedented spatial resolution, is highly heterogeneous due to the blending of multiple acquisitions across different years and seasons. We found that both forest- and terrain-specific characteristics affected the uncertainty of the ArcticCHM+S2 model and concluded that the combined use of ArcticCHM and Sentinel-2 represents a viable solution for AGB mapping across boreal forests. The synergy between the two data sources allowed for a reduction of the saturation effects typical of multispectral data while ensuring the spatial consistency in the output predictions due to the removal of artifacts and data voids present in ArcticCHM data. While the main contribution of this study is to provide the first evidence of the best-case-scenario (i.e., availability of accurate terrain models) that ArcticDEM data can provide for large-scale AGB modelling, it remains critically important for other studies to investigate how ArcticDEM may be used in areas where no DTMs are available as is the case for large portions of the boreal zone.

space-borne imagery↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning Functions Varying along a Central Subspace

Many functions of interest are in a high-dimensional space but exhibit low-dimensional structures. This paper studies regression of an s-Hölder function in $R^D$ which varies along a central subspace of dimension $d$ while $d \ll D$. A direct approximation of $f$ in $R^D$ with an accuracy $\varepsilon$ requires the number of samples in the order of $\varepsilon^{-(2s+D)/s}$. In this paper, we analyze the generalized contour regression (GCR) algorithm for the estimation of the central subspace and use piecewise polynomials for function approximation. GCR is among the best estimators for the central subspace, but its sample complexity is an open question. In this paper, we partially answer this questions by proving that if a variance quantity is exactly known, GCR leads to a mean squared estimation error of $O(n^{-1})$ for the central subspace. The estimation error of this variance quantity is also given in this paper. The mean squared regression error of $f$ is proved to be in the order of $(n/\log n)^{-\frac{2s}{2s+d}}$, where the exponent depends on the dimension of the central subspace instead of the ambient space . This result demonstrates that GCR is effective in learning the low-dimensional central subspace. We also propose a modified GCR with improved efficiency. Here, the convergence rate is validated through several numerical experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A demonstration of improved constraints on primordial gravitational waves with delensing

We present a constraint on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$, derived from measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization $B$-modes with "delensing,'' whereby the uncertainty on $r$ contributed by the sample variance of the gravitational lensing $B$-modes is reduced by cross-correlating against a lensing $B$-mode template. This template is constructed by combining an estimate of the polarized CMB with a tracer of the projected large-scale structure. The large-scale-structure tracer used is a map of the cosmic infrared background derived from Planck satellite data, while the polarized CMB map comes from a combination of South Pole Telescope, BICEP/Keck, and Planck data. We expand the BICEP/Keck likelihood analysis framework to accept a lensing template and apply it to the BICEP/Keck data set collected through 2014 using the same parametric foreground modelling as in the previous analysis. From simulations, we find that the uncertainty on $r$ is reduced by $\sim10\%$, from $\sigma(r)$= 0.024 to 0.022, which can be compared with a $\sim26\%$ reduction obtained when using a perfect lensing template. Applying the technique to the real data, the constraint on $r$ is improved from $r_{0.05} < 0.090$ to $r_{0.05} < 0.082$ (95% C.L.). Furthermore, this is the first demonstration of improvement in an $r$ constraint through delensing.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Nonlinear equilibration of localized instabilities on a baroclinic jet

Dynamical mechanisms underlying the equilibration of absolute instability are examined in a nonlinear, quasigeostrophic, two-layer model. The key to understanding the nonlinear equilibration is in recognizing that linear absolute instabilities can be stabilized both by a reduction of the vertical shear and by enhancement of the mean barotropic velocity. In a localized domain, the equilibration process proceeds with the creation of locally convectively unstable regions downstream, which encroach onto the locally absolutely unstable region until the local instability is suppressed. That local instabilities exist only if absolutely unstable regions span a minimum size is verified by eigenvalue calculations of three-dimensional flows. Numerical examples suggest that this critical size is at least 9000 km for a wide range of parameter values chosen to investigate the midlatitude storm tracks. Fluctuations arising from local absolute instability obtain maximum amplitude in the downstream convectively unstable regions rather than in the absolutely unstable regions themselves. Together, these results suggest that if an equilibrated absolute instability were to occur in midlatitudes, a zonal band of surface easterlies exceeding 900 km would be required and the associated enhanced variances would not be found coincident with the regions of absolute instability.

Delsole, Timothy M.↗