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Production of long-term global water vapor and liquid water data set using ultra-fast methods to assimilate multi-satellite and radiosonde observations

During the next decade, many programs and experiments under the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) will utilize present day and future data sets to improve our understanding of the role of moisture in climate, and its interaction with other variables such as clouds and radiation. An important element of GEWEX will be the GEWEX Water Vapor Project (GVaP), which will eventually initiate a routine, real-time assimilation of the highest quality, global water vapor data sets including information gained from future data collection systems, both ground and space based. The comprehensive global water vapor data set being produced by METSAT Inc. uses a combination of ground-based radiosonde data, and infrared and microwave satellite retrievals. This data is needed to provide the desired foundation from which future GEWEX-related research, such as GVaP, can build. The first year of this project was designed to use a combination of the best available atmospheric moisture data including: radiosonde (balloon/acft/rocket), HIRS/MSU (TOVS) retrievals, and SSM/I retrievals, to produce a one-year, global, high resolution data set of integrated column water vapor (precipitable water) with a horizontal resolution of 1 degree, and a temporal resolution of one day. The time period of this pilot product was to be det3ermined by the availability of all the input data sets. January 1988 through December 1988 were selected. In addition, a sample of vertically integrated liquid water content (LWC) was to be produced with the same temporal and spatial parameters. This sample was to be produced over ocean areas only. Three main steps are followed to produce a merged water vapor and liquid water product. Input data from Radiosondes, TOVS, and SSMI/I is quality checked in steps one and two. Processing is done in step two to generate individual total column water vapor and liquid water data sets. The third step, and final processing task, involves merging the individual output products to produce the integrated water vapor product. A final quality control is applied to the merged data sets.

Vonderhaar, T. H.↗

Composition Changes After the "Halloween" Solar Proton Event: The High-Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere (HEPPA) Model Versus MIPAS Data Intercomparison Study

We have compared composition changes of NO, NO2, H2O2,O3, N2O, HNO3 , N2O5, HNO4, ClO, HOCl, and ClONO2 as observed by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat in the aftermath of the "Halloween" solar proton event (SPE) in October/November 2003 at 25-0.01 hPa in the Northern hemisphere (40-90 N) and simulations performed by the following atmospheric models: the Bremen 2D model (B2dM) and Bremen 3D Chemical Transport Model (B3dCTM), the Central Aerological Observatory (CAO) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the ECHAM5/MESSY Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, the modeling tool for SO1ar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and SOCOLi), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The large number of participating models allowed for an evaluation of the overall ability of atmospheric models to reproduce observed atmospheric perturbations generated by SPEs, particularly with respect to NOS, and ozone changes. We have further assessed the meteorological conditions and their implications on the chemical response to the SPE in both the models and observations by comparing temperature and tracer (CH4 and CO) fields. Simulated SPE-induced ozone losses agree on average within 5% with the observations. Simulated NO(y) enhancements around 1 hPa, however, are typically 30% higher than indicated by the observations which can be partly attributed to an overestimation of simulated electron-induced ionization. The analysis of the observed and modeled NO(y) partitioning in the aftermath of the SPE has demonstrated the need to implement additional ion chemistry (HNO3 formation via ion-ion recombination and water cluster ions) into the chemical schemes. An overestimation of observed H2O2 enhancements by all models hints at an underestimation of the OH/HO2 ratio in the upper polar stratosphere during the SPE. The analysis of chlorine species perturbations has shown that the encountered differences between models and observations, particularly the underestimation of observed ClONO2 enhancements, are related to a smaller availability of ClO in the polar night region already before the SPE. In general, the intercomparison has demonstrated that differences in the meteorology and/or initial state of the atmosphere in the simulations causes a relevant variability of the model results, even on a short timescale of only a few days.

Funke, B.↗

A Decision-Support Model for Selecting Additive Manufacturing Versus Subtractive Manufacturing Based on Energy Consumption

This paper presents a simple computational model for determining whether additive manufacturing or subtractive manufacturing is more energy efficient for production of a given metallic part. The key discriminating variable is the fraction of the bounding envelope that contains material – i.e. the volume fraction of solid material. For both the additive process and the subtractive process, the total energy associated with the production of a part is defined in terms of the volume fraction of that part. The critical volume fraction is that for which the energy consumed by subtractive manufacturing equals the energy consumed by additive manufacturing. For volume fractions less than the critical value, additive manufacturing is more energy efficient. For volume fractions greater than the critical value, subtractive manufacturing is more efficient. The model considers the entire manufacturing lifecycle – from production and transport of feedstock material through processing to return of post-production scrap for recycling. Energy consumed by processing equipment while idle is also accounted for in the model. Although the individual energy components in the model are identified and accounted for in the expressions for additive and subtractive manufacturing, values for many of these components may not be currently available. Energy values for some materials’ production and subtractive and additive manufacturing processes can be found in the literature. However, since many of these data are reported for a very specific application, it may be difficult, if not impossible, to reliably apply these data to new process-material manufacturing scenarios since, very often, insufficient information is provided to enable extrapolation to broader use. Consequently, this paper also highlights the need to develop improved knowledge of the energy embodied in each phase of the manufacturing process. To be most valuable, users of the model should determine the energy consumed by their manufacturing process equipment on the basis of energy-per-unit-volume of production for each material of interest – considering both alloy composition and form. Energy consumed during machine idle per unit time should also be determined by the user then scaled to specific processing scenarios. Energy required to generate feedstock material (billet, plate, bar, wire, powder) must be obtained from suppliers.

J K Watson↗

Advanced Power and Propulsion: Insuring Human Survival and Productivity in Deep Space Missions

Dr. Chang-Diaz gave an intriguing presentation of his research in advanced rocket propulsion and its relevance for planning and executing crewed deep space explorations. Though not necessarily exclusively Martian, his thrust looks critically at future Mars missions. Initially Dr. Chang-Diaz showed the time constraints of Mars missions due to orbital mechanics and our present chemically powered rocket technology. Since essentially all the energy required to place current generation spacecraft into a Martian trajectory must be expended in the early minutes of a flight, most of such a mission is spent in free-fall drift, captive to the gravitational forces among Earth, the Sun, and Mars. The simple physics of such chemically powered missions requires nearly a year in transit for each direction of a Mars mission. And the optimal orientations of Earth and Mars for rendezvous require further time on or around Mars to await return. These extensions of mission duration place any crew under a three-fold jeopardy: (1) physiological deconditioning (which in some aspects is still unknown and unpreventable), (2) psychological stress, and (3) ionizing radiation. This latter risk is due to exposure of crew members for extended time to the highly unpredictable and potentially lethal radiations of open space. Any gains in shortening mission duration would reap equivalent or greater benefits for these crew concerns. Dr. Chang-Diaz has applied his training and expertise (Ph.D. from Massachusetts Institute of Technology in applied plasma physics) toward development of continuous rocket propulsion which would offer great time advantages in travel, and also more launch options than are now available. He clearly explained the enormous gains from a relatively low thrust accelerative force applied essentially continuously versus the high, but short-lived propulsion of present chemical rockets. In fact, such spacecraft could be powered throughout the mission, accelerating to approximately the midpoint and decelerating during the latter half. This would not only provide some level of gravity (acceleration) throughout the mission but also allow very high velocities to be achieved, thus saving many months of travel time. In proposing the design of such a spacecraft propulsion system, Dr. Chang-Diaz was quick to acknowledge the need for a large power source, which undoubtedly must be nuclear fueled at the solar distances involved. He calls his system the Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket (VASIMR). The other major ingredient is a mass (deuterium, which could also function as a radiation shield for crews) for energizing into the ultra hot, high velocity exhaust plasma. He foresees models now functional in the laboratory soon to be tested in space. In fact, some of these concepts have already been tried there. His optimism and determination would have operational rockets in the next decades.

Chang-Diaz, Franklin R.↗

A Simple Mechanism for Fractionating Oxygen Isotopes in the Solar Nebula

Lightning in the Solar Nebula is caused by the tribo-electric charging of dust grains carried by massive turbulent flows and driven by the accretion energy in the disk: it has long been one agent assumed responsible for the formation of chondrules. The degree to which charge separation can occur is dependent upon a number of factors, including the concentration of radioactive sources and the total level of ionization in the nebula, and these factors determine the maximum energy likely to be released by a single bolt. While chondrule formation requires a massive discharge, even a small lightning bolt can vaporize grains in the ionized discharge channel. Experimental studies have shown that silica, iron silicate and iron oxide grains formed from a high voltage discharge in hydrogen rich gas containing some oxygen produces solids that are enriched in O-17 and O-18 relative to the composition of the starting gas. Vaporization of silicates produces SiO, metal and free oxygen atoms in each discharge and these species will immediately begin to recondense from the hot plasma. Freshly condensed grains are incrementally enriched in heavy oxygen while the gas is enriched in O-16. Repeated evaporation and condensation of silicates in continuously occurring lightning discharges will monotonically increase the fractionation of oxygen isotopes between the O-17 and O-18 rich dust and the O-16 rich gas. The first mass independently fractionated refractory oxide particles were produced in the lab following the condensation of a flowing gas mixture containing variable amounts of hydrogen, silane, pentacarbonyl iron and oxygen that passed through a high voltage discharge powered by a Tesla coil. While the exact chemical pathway is still uncertain, the most probable reaction mechanisms involve oxidation of the growing refractory clusters by O3, OH or O atoms. This model has some interesting consequences for chemical processes in the early solar nebula. Chemical fractionation of recondensed dust evaporated via lightning discharges should be strongly time dependent. At earlier times, the accretion rate is maximal, thus driving strong turbulence, energetic grain-grain collisions, tribo-electric charging and charge separation, leading to frequent, powerful lightning discharges. As the accretion rate diminishes, turbulence decreases and lightning discharges will become both less powerful and less frequent, thus decreasing the rate of dust-gas fractionation. The most rapid increase in the formation of O-16 poor dust will occur early in nebular history. Generation of fractionated dust should be distributed throughout the inner disk. Once condensed, grain dispersal would average out any significant isotopic anomalies within the inner disk.

Nuth, Joseph A., III↗

Ion Acoustic Wave Frequencies and Onset Times During Type 3 Solar Radio Bursts

Conflicting interpretations exist for the low-frequency ion acoustic (S) waves often observed by ISEE 3 in association with intense Langmuir (L) waves in the source regions of type III solar radio bursts near 1 AU. Two indirect lines of observational evidence, as well as plasma theory, suggest they are produced by the electrostatic (ES) decay L yields L(PRIME) + S. However, contrary to theoretical predictions, an existing analysis of the wave frequencies instead favors the electromagnetic (EM) decays L yields T + S, where T denotes an EM wave near the plasma frequency. This conflict is addressed here by comparing the observed wave frequencies and onset times with theoretical predictions for the ES and EM decays, calculated using the time-variable electron beam and magnetic field orientation data, rather than the nominal values used previously. Field orientation effects and beam speed variations are shown analytically to produce factor-of-three effects, greater than the difference in wave frequencies predicted for the ES and EM decays; effects of similar magnitude occur in the events analyzed here. The S-wave signals are extracted by hand from a sawtooth noise background, greatly improving the association between S waves and intense L waves. Very good agreement exists between the time-varying predictions for the ES decay and the frequencies of most (but not all) wave bursts. The waves occur only after the ES decay becomes kinematically allowed, which is consistent with the ES decay proceeding and producing most of the observed signals. Good agreement exists between the EM decay's predictions and a significant fraction of the S-wave observations while the EM decay is kinematically allowed. The wave data are not consistent, however, with the EM decay being the dominant nonlinear process. Often the observed waves are sufficiently broadband to overlap simultaneously the frequency ranges predicted for the ES and EM decays. Coupling the dominance of the ES decay with this frequency overlap provides support for a previous suggestion that fundamental emission occurs when the EM decay is stimulated by the ES decay product waves. The periods in which the ES and EM decays produce observable S waves are consistent with the observed and (independently) predicted times of fundamental and harmonic radio emission. This supports interpretation of fundamental emission as stimulated EM decay and harmonic emission as the coalescence L + L(prime) yields T of beam-generated L waves and L(prime) waves produced by the ES decay, where T denotes an electromagnetic wave at twice the plasma frequency. Analysis of the electron beam data reveals that the time-varying beam speed is consistent with ballistic beam propagation with minimal energy loss, implying that the beam propagates in a state close to time- and volume-averaged marginal stability. This confirms a central tenet of the stochastic growth theory for type III bursts.

Cairns, Iver H.↗

TRMM and Its Connection to the Global Water Cycle

The importance of quantitative knowledge of tropical rainfall, its associated latent heating and variability is summarized in the context of the global hydrologic cycle. Much of the tropics is covered by oceans. What land exists, is covered largely by rainforests that are only thinly populated. The only way to adequately measure the global tropical rainfall for climate and general circulation models is from space. The TRMM orbit is inclined 35 degrees leading to good sampling in the tropics and a rapid precession to study the diurnal cycle of precipitation. The precipitation instrument complement consists of the first rain radar to be flown in space (PR), a multi-channel passive microwave sensor (TMI) and a five-channel VIS/IR (VIRS) sensor. The precipitation radar operates at a frequency of 13.6 GHz. The swath width is 220 km, with a horizontal resolution of 4 km and the vertical resolution of 250 m. The minimum detectable signal from the precipitation radar has been measured at 17 dBZ. The TMI instrument is designed similar to the SSM/I with two important changes. The 22.235 GHz water vapor absorption channel of the SSM/I was moved to 21.3 GHz in order to avoid saturation in the tropics and 10.7 GHz V&H polarized channels were added to expand the dynamic range of rainfall estimates. The resolution of the TMI varies from 4.6 km at 85 GHz to 36 km at 10.7 GHz. The visible and infrared sensor (VIRS) measures radiation at 0.63, 1.6, 3.75, 10.8 and 12.0 microns. The spatial resolution of all five VIRS channels is 2 km at nadir. In addition to the three primary rainfall instruments, TRMM will also carry a Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and a Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument. This presentation will focus primarily on the advances in our understanding of tropical rain systems needed to interpret the TRMM data. Global averages, as well as case studies from TRMM radar (PR), the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Visible and Infrared Sensor (VIRS) will be presented. Comparisons and contrasts among the different sensors will be drawn. Results will also be compared to previous rainfall climatologies generated from the SSM/I instrument. In particular this paper will focus on the synergy between the TRMM radar and passive microwave radiometer and what we have learned from is synergy.

Kummerow, Chiristian↗

ISRU Pilot Excavator: Bucket Drum Scaling Experimental Results

NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) is funding the development of a robotic excavator called the “ISRU Pilot Excavator” which will be a technology demonstration of excavating and transporting 10 metric tons of lunar regolith on the surface of the moon with a 30k-class robotic excavator. ISRU Pilot Excavator will be the next generation of robotic excavator to use bucket drums as excavation tools. This is an evolution of the Regolith Advanced Surface Systems Operations Robot (RASSOR) developed at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center. Bucket drums are hollow cylinders with regularly spaced scoops around the perimeter. The drums rotate in one direction to collect regolith with the scoops. The regolith slides down an internal baffling system inside the drum which prevents the regolith from falling back out of the scoops. The captured regolith can then be transported while held in the drum and then deposited by rotating the drum in the opposite direction allowing the regolith to slide back down the baffling and out of the excavation scoops. Bucket drums were developed by Lockheed Martin in 2008 and used on multiple robotic excavator prototypes ever since. However the forces on a bucket drum and considerations for scaling have not been measured in detail. Bucket drums are challenging to model using classical blade\bucket equations because of their unique geometry. Therefore this experiment was performed to measure the forces on three bucket drums of the same geometry at different scales. Small: 9.4” (239mm) dia. x 8.1” (206mm) width, Medium: 11.6” (294mm) dia. x 10” (254mm) width, and Large: 17” (432mm) dia. x 14.1”(358mm) width. The test stand consisted of an actuated gantry with controlled motion in the vertical (Z) and horizontal (X) axes and a single rotation axis (R). The bucket drums were individually mounted to the rotary axis of the test stand and translated across a prepared bed of BP-1 lunar regolith simulant at a specified linear speed and cutting depth. The test stand was outfitted with a torque sensor in line with the rotation of the drum (R) and a 3 axis (X, Y, and Z) load cell. In addition to the three sizes of bucket drums the linear excavation speed and cutting depth were test variables. The results of these experiments show the relationship between the three scales of bucket drums for factors such as: excavation force, torque due to regolith rotation inside the drum, excavation energy, time to fill, etc. and will be discussed in detail in this paper. This fundamental data will be used in the design of the ISRU Pilot Excavator and can inform the design of future bucket drum excavators.

Jason Michael Schuler↗

Depth Dose Distribution Study within a Phantom Torso after Irradiation with a Simulated Solar Particle Event at NSRL

The adequate knowledge of the radiation environment and the doses incurred during a space mission is essential for estimating an astronaut's health risk. The space radiation environment is complex and variable, and exposures inside the spacecraft and the astronaut's body are compounded by the interactions of the primary particles with the atoms of the structural materials and with the body itself Astronauts' radiation exposures are measured by means of personal dosimetry, but there remains substantial uncertainty associated with the computational extrapolation of skin dose to organ dose, which can lead to over- or underestimation of the health risk. Comparisons of models to data showed that the astronaut's Effective dose (E) can be predicted to within about a +10% accuracy using space radiation transport models for galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and trapped radiation behind shielding. However for solar particle event (SPE) with steep energy spectra and for extra-vehicular activities on the surface of the moon where only tissue shielding is present, transport models predict that there are large differences in model assumptions in projecting organ doses. Therefore experimental verification of SPE induced organ doses may be crucial for the design of lunar missions. In the research experiment "Depth dose distribution study within a phantom torso" at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) at BNL, Brookhaven, USA the large 1972 SPE spectrum was simulated using seven different proton energies from 50 up to 450 MeV. A phantom torso constructed of natural bones and realistic distributions of human tissue equivalent materials, which is comparable to the torso of the MATROSHKA phantom currently on the ISS, was equipped with a comprehensive set of thermoluminescence detectors and human cells. The detectors are applied to assess the depth dose distribution and radiation transport codes (e.g. GEANT4) are used to assess the radiation field and interactions of the radiation field with the phantom torso. Lymphocyte cells are strategically embedded at selected locations at the skin and internal organs and are processed after irradiation to assess the effects of shielding on the yield of chromosome damage. The initial focus of the present experiment is to correlate biological results with physical dosimetry measurements in the phantom torso. Further on, the results of the passive dosimetry within the anthropomorphic phantoms represent the best tool to generate reliable data to benchmark computational radiation transport models in a radiation field of interest. The presentation will give first results of the physical dose distribution, the comparison with GEANT4 computer simulations based on a Voxel model of the phantom, and a comparison with the data from the chromosome aberration study.

Berger, Thomas↗

TRMM and its Connection to the Global Water Cycle

The importance of quantitative knowledge of tropical rainfall, its associated latent heating and variability is summarized in the context of the global hydrologic cycle. Much of the tropics is covered by oceans. What land exists, is covered largely by rainforests that are only thinly populated. The only way to adequately measure the global tropical rainfall for climate and general circulation models is from space. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) orbit is inclined 35 degrees leading to good sampling in the tropics and a rapid precession to study the diurnal cycle of precipitation. The precipitation instrument complement consists of the first rain radar to be flown in space (PR), a multi-channel passive microwave sensor (TMI) and a five-channel VIS/IR (VIRS) sensor. The precipitation radar operates at a frequency of 13.6 GHz. The swath width is 220 km, with a horizontal resolution of 4 km and the vertical resolution of 250 m. The minimum detectable signal from the precipitation radar has been measured at - 17 dBZ. The TMI instrument is designed similar to the SSM/I with two important changes. The 22.235 GHz water vapor absorption channel of the SSM/I was moved to 21.3 GHz in order to avoid saturation in the tropics and 10.7 GHz V&H polarized channels were added to expand the dynamic range of rainfall estimates. The resolution of the TMI varies from 4.6 km at 85 GHz to 36 km at 10.7 GHz. The visible and infrared sensor (VIRS) measures radiation at 0.63, 1.6, 3.75, 10.8 and 12.0 microns. The spatial resolution of all five VIRS channels is 2 km at nadir. In addition to the three primary rainfall instruments, TRMM will also carry a Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and a Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument. This presentation will focus primarily on the advances in our understanding of tropical rain systems needed to interpret the TRMM data. Global averages, as well as case studies from TRMM radar (PR), the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Visible and Infrared Sensor (VIRS) will be presented. Comparisons and contrasts among the different sensors will be drawn. Results will also be compared to previous rainfall climatologies generated from the SSM/I instrument. In particular this paper will focus on the synergy between the TRMM radar and passive microwave radiometer and what we have learned from its synergy.

Kummerow, Christian↗

ISRU Pilot Excavator: Bucket Drum Scaling Experimental Results

NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) is funding the development of a robotic excavator called the “ISRU Pilot Excavator” (IPEx) which will be a technology demonstration of excavating and transporting 10 metric tons of lunar regolith on the surface of the moon with a 30kg-class robotic excavator. IPEx will be the next generation of robotic excavators to use bucket drums as excavation tools. This is an evolution of the Regolith Advanced Surface Systems Operations Robot (RASSOR) developed at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center (KSC). Bucket drums are hollow cylinders with regularly spaced scoops around the perimeter. The drums rotate in one direction to collect regolith with the scoops. The regolith slides down an internal baffling system inside the drum which prevents the regolith from falling back out of the scoops (see Figure 1). The captured regolith can then be transported while held in the drum and then deposited by rotating the drum in the opposite direction allowing the regolith to slide back down the baffling and out of the excavation scoops. Bucket drums were developed by Lockheed Martin in 2008 and used on multiple robotic excavator prototypes ever since. However, the forces on a bucket drum and considerations for scaling have not been measured in detail. Bucket drums are challenging to model using classical blade\bucket equations because of their unique geometry. Therefore, this experiment was performed to measure the forces on three bucket drums of the same geometry at different scales. Small: 9.4” (239mm) dia. x 8.1” (206mm) width, Medium: 11.6” (294mm) dia. x 10” (254mm) width, and Large: 17” (432mm) dia. x 14.1” (358mm) width. The test stand consisted of an actuated gantry with controlled motion in the vertical (Z) and horizontal (X) axes and a single rotation axis (R). The bucket drums were individually mounted to the rotary axis of the test stand and translated across a prepared bed of BP-1 lunar regolith simulant at a specified linear speed and cutting depth. The test stand was outfitted with a torque sensor in line with the rotation of the drum (R) and a 3 axis (X, Y, and Z) load cell. In addition to the three sizes of bucket drums the linear excavation speed and cutting depth were test variables. The results of these experiments show the relationship between the three scales of bucket drums for factors such as: excavation force, torque due to regolith rotation inside the drum, excavation energy, time to fill, etc. and will be discussed in detail in this paper. This fundamental data will be used in the design of IPEx and can inform the design of future bucket drum excavators.

RASSOR↗

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗

A Study of Nucleate Boiling with Forced Convection in Microgravity

The ultimate objective of basic studies of flow boiling in microgravity is to improve the understanding of the processes involved, as manifested by the ability to predict its behavior. This is not yet the case for boiling heat transfer even in earth gravity, despite the considerable research activity over the past 30 years. The elements that constitute the nucleate boiling process - nucleation, growth, motion, and collapse of the vapor bubbles (if the bulk liquid is subcooled) - are common to both pool and flow boiling. It is well known that the imposition of bulk liquid motion affects the vapor bubble behavior relative to pool boiling, but does not appear to significantly influence the heat transfer. Indeed, it has been recommended in the past that empirical correlations or experimental data of pool boiling be used for design purposes with forced convection nucleate boiling. It is anticipated that such will most certainly not be possible for boiling in microgravity, based on observations made with pool boiling in microgravity. In earth gravity buoyancy will act to remove the vapor bubbles from the vicinity of the heater surface regardless of how much the imposed bulk velocity is reduced, depending, of course, on the geometry of the system. Vapor bubbles have been observed to dramatically increase in size in pool boiling in microgravity, and the heat flux at which dryout took place was reduced considerably below what is generally termed the critical heat flux (CHF) in earth gravity, depending on the bulk liquid subcooling. However, at heat flux levels below dryout, the nucleate pool boiling process was enhanced considerably over that in earth gravity, in spite of the large vapor bubbles formed in microgravity and perhaps as a consequence. These large vapor bubbles tended to remain in the vicinity of the heater surface, and the enhanced heat transfer appeared to be associated with the presence of what variously has been referred to as a liquid microlayer between the bubble and the heater surface. The enhancement of the boiling process with low velocities in earth gravity for those orientations producing the formation of a liquid macrolayer described above, accompanied by "sliding" vapor bubbles, has been demonstrated. The enhancement was presented as a function of orientation, subcooling, and heated length, while a criterion for the heat transfer for mixed natural/forced convection nucleate boiling was given previously. A major unknown in the prediction and application of flow boiling heat transfer in microgravity is the upper limit of the heat flux for the onset of dryout (or critical heat flux - CHF), for given conditions of fluid-heater surfaces, including geometry, system pressure and bulk liquid subcooling. It is clearly understood that the behavior in microgravity will be no different than on earth with sufficiently high flow velocities, and would require no space experimentation. However, the boundary at which this takes place is still an unknown. Previous results of CHF measurements were presented for low velocity flow boiling at various orientations in earth gravity as a function of flow velocity and bulk liquid subcooling, along with preliminary measurements of bubble residence times on a flat heater surface. This showed promise as a parameter to be used in modeling the CHF, both in earth gravity and in microgravity. The objective of the work here is to draw attention to and show results of current modeling efforts for the CHF, with low velocities in earth gravity at different orientations and subcoolings. Many geometrical possibilities for a heater surface exist in flowing boiling, with boiling on the inner and outer surfaces of tubes perhaps being the most common. If the vapor bubble residence time on and departure size from the heater surface bear a relationship to the CHF, as results to be given indicate, it is important that visualization of and access to vapor bubble growth be conveniently available for research purposes. In addition, it is desirable to reduce the number of variables as much as possible in a fundamental study. These considerations dictated the use of a flat heater surface, which is rectangular in shape, 1.91 cm by 3.81 cm (0.75 x 1.5 inches), consisting either of a 400 Angstrom thick semi-transparent gold film sputtered on a quartz substrate which serves simultaneously as a heater and a resistance thermometer, or a copper substrate of the same size. The heater substrate is a disc which can be rotated so that the heated length in the flow direction can be changed from 1.91 to 3.81 cm (0.75 to 1.5 inches). The fluid is R-113, and the velocities can be varied between 0.5 cm/s and 60 cm/s. For a sufficiently low velocity the CHF can be modeled reasonably well at various orientations by the correlation for pool boiling corrected for the influence of bulk liquid subcooling, multiplied by the square root of q, the angle relative to horizontal. This arises from equating buoyancy and drag forces in the inverted positions where the vapor bubbles are held against the heater surface as they slide. A distortion of the measurements relative to pool boiling occurs as the flow velocity increases. In modeling this effect at different levels of subcooling it appeared appropriate to estimate the volumetric rate of vapor generation, using measurements of bubble frequency (or residence time), void fraction and average bubble boundary layer thickness. These were determined with the use of a platinum hot wire probe 0.025 mm in diameter by 1.3 mm long, applying a constant current to distinguish between contact with liquid or vapor. Two-dimensional spatial variations are obtained with a special mechanism to resolve displacements in increments of 0.025 mm. From such measurements it was determined that the fraction of the surface heat transfer resulting in evaporation varies inversely with the subcooling correction factor for the CHF. The measured inverse bubble residence time is normalized relative to that predicted for an infinite horizontal flat plate at the CHF, and is correlated well with the CHF normalized relative to that for pool boiling, for various orientation angles and subcooling levels. This correspondence is then combined with a normalizing factor for the energy flux leaving the heater surface at the CHF and the computed bubble radius at departure, determined from the balance between the outward velocity of the interface due to evaporation and the buoyance induced velocity of the center of mass of the bubble. The product of the CHF and the corresponding residence time was determined to be a constant for all orientations at a given bulk flow velocity and liquid subcooling, and must be determined empirically for each velocity and subcooling at present. It then becomes possible to predict the CHF for the different orientations, velocities, and subcoolings. These are compared with normalized measurements of the CHF for velocities ranging from 4 cm/s to 55 cm/s, subcoolings from 2.8 to 22.2 K, over orientations angles of 360 degrees.

Merte, Herman, Jr.↗

A Multi-Disciplinary Analysis Framework for the Design of Small Launch Vehicles

Between the years of 1995 and 2014 the number of small satellites (1-500 kg) went up from 20 to 180. [1] Out of the 180 launched in 2014 66% were Nano satellites (1-10 kg). [1] With this trend of smaller satellites, one would expect a rise in number of small launch vehicles (SLVs are defined by capability to carry 1-100 kg to orbit), but this has not happened: [3] only 8% of all small satellites are launched on SLVs and the others become secondary payloads on regular launch vehicles. [1] This results in small satellites being placed into either suboptimal orbits or waiting for launch schedules to align with bigger launches, resulting in long waiting times. Dedicated SLVs could improve the responsiveness of small satellite launches, but SLV design is complicated by the large architecture space needed to be explored in order to find efficient and affordable designs. The SLV architecture trade space contains many discrete options, e.g. solid vs. liquid fuels, air launch vs. ground launch, number of stages, etc. [2][3] Performing detailed analysis for all the options at once would be prohibitive. Thus, a sizing environment/framework that is capable of providing necessary information for conceptual-level trade studies and can rapidly explore the vast SLV architecture space is necessary. The framework, illustrated in Figure 1, consists of four disciplines central to the sizing and synthesis of launch vehicles: propulsion, aerodynamics, structures, and trajectory. For the aerodynamics and trajectory disciplines, Missile DATCOM and POST2 are used, respectively. The propulsion and structures disciplines are represented in the framework with tools developed at ASDL Georgia Tech. For propulsion, the Solid Motor Analysis Code (SMAC) is a physics-based conceptual design tool for solid rocket motors. SMAC is capable of geometric burn simulation, ballistic analysis, and prediction of thrust performance. [4] For structures, Launch Vehicle Structural Analysis (LVSA) tool is a physics-based tool that focuses on structural dynamic analysis with sizing capability. These tools are integrated into the framework illustrated in Figure 1 with the corresponding connections described in Table 1. The process flow is as follows: first, SMAC sizes insulation and calculates maximum operating pressures for each vehicle stage. The MEOP and insulation thickness values from SMAC are fed to LVSA which then utilizes this information to size the motor casing. This creates a feedback loop between LVSA and SMAC that converges on the radius available for fuel, casing, and insulation thickness. Once the stage sizing is converged on SMAC creates an engine deck that is passed to POST2. Next, the data from SMAC and LVSA goes into Missile DATCOM which generates an aerodynamics database for POST2. Finally, POST2 performs a targeting optimization while maximizing the payload mass to orbit. Within the framework, POST2 is automated in order to be robust to a wide variety of possible designs by performing a Monte Carlo simulation over the initialization vector of the POST2 optimization variables. To demonstrate the capability of this framework, a sample problem of exploring the design space of an SLV capable of placing satellites into a low Earth orbit (inclination=47 deg, 196.5 by 211.3 nm) is used. This sample problem is a ground-launched SLV consisting of four in-line SRM stages. The multidisciplinary design analysis (MDA) environment is utilized to explore a design space consisting of 22 continuous and 12 discrete variables, shown by Table 1 by blocks 1,2,3. Running a full factorial design of experiments (DOE) would have been prohibitively expensive even with this reduced design space, thus a space filling design with 3,502 and then additional expansion of 2,602 cases was used. The first DOE consisted of 3,502 cases, and all of the variables were varied. These input variables are listed in blocks 1, 2, and 3 in Table 1. Most of the variables are propulsion related with stage lengths determining the delta-V split of the SLV. The expansion consisted of 2,602 cases, and the continuous variables were set to be equal to the most promising designs from the sizing of first DOE. For each set of continuous variables, the discrete variables (grain type, star points, and propellant) were to varied. The results of the DOE can be seen in Figure 2; each of the points in this plot represents a closed launch vehicle that reaches the targeted orbit. For each of the cases, there is information on flown trajectory, structural, and propulsion properties of the SLV. For example, Figure 3 shows changes in altitude and velocity with time for a particular case. The right side of Figure 3 clearly shows the coasting (slow decrease) and burning phases (sharp increase) of the SLV mission. LV mass is positively correlated with the optimized payload mass to orbit because heavier LVs carry more fuel and thus have more stored chemical energy. Furthermore, for any given payload mass to orbit, the most efficient design would result in the smallest LV. The results as visualized in Figure 2 shows this tradeoff, and the Pareto frontier of the efficient designs can be seen along the dotted line. Figure 2 can be divided into regions with the lowest mass vehicles corresponding to the minimum bound on radius, and the highest mass vehicles corresponding to the maximum bound on radius. Within a mass region, the discrete variables, such as propellant type and propellant grain arrangement, have the most effect on payload mass. This paper presents an MDA framework that can perform an automated physics-based sizing of SLV designs and a corresponding methodology to utilize the MDA to explore the design space of SLVs. The proposed methodology was applied to a perform a design space exploration for a four stage SLV. The outputs show the expected pareto frontier forming and provide detailed information about the SLV performance and staging. Using the produced data, it will be possible to select a set of pareto optimal designs that can then be further explored in subsequent design cycles. This demonstration shows that automated design space exploration should be used in the early phase design of future SLV concepts.

Nikita S Birbasov↗

Analysis of Electrical Characteristics of Thin Film Photovoltaic Cells

Solar energy is the most abundant form of energy in many terrestrial and extraterrestrial environments. Often in extraterrestrial environments sunlight is the only readily available form of energy. Thus the ability to efficiently harness solar energy is one of the ultimate goals in the design of space power systems. The essential component that converts solar energy into electrical energy in a solar energy based power system is the photovoltaic cell. Traditionally, photovoltaic cells are based on a single crystal silicon absorber. While silicon is a well understood technology and yields high efficiency, there are inherent disadvantages to using single crystal materials. The requirements of weight, large planar surfaces, and high manufacturing costs make large silicon cells prohibitively expensive for use in certain applications. Because of silicon s disadvantages, there is considerable ongoing research into alternative photovoltaic technologies. In particular, thin film photovoltaic technologies exhibit a promising future in space power systems. While they are less mature than silicon, the better radiation hardness, reduced weight, ease of manufacturing, low material cost, and the ability to use virtually any exposed surface as a substrate makes thin film technologies very attractive for space applications. The research group lead by Dr. Hepp has spent several years researching copper indium disulfide as an absorber material for use in thin film photovoltaic cells. While the group has succeeded in developing a single source precursor for CuInS2 as well as a unique method of aerosol assisted chemical vapor deposition, the resulting cells have not achieved adequate efficiencies. While efficiencies of 11 % have been demonstrated with CuInS2 based cells, the cells produced by this group have shown efficiencies of approximately 1 %. Thus, current research efforts are turning towards the analysis of the individual layers of these cells, as well as the junctions between them, to determine the cause of the poor yields. As a student of electrical engineering with some material science background, my role in this research is to develop techniques for analyzing the electrical characteristics of the CuInS2 cells. My first task was to design a shadow mask to be used to place molybdenum contacts under a layer of CuInS;! in order to analyze the contact resistance between the materials. In addition, I have also analyzed evaporated aluminum top contacts and have tested various methods of increasing their thicknesses in order to decrease series resistance. More recently I have worked with other members of the research group in reviving a vertical cold-wall reactor for experimentation with CuInS2 quantum dots. As part of that project, I have improved the design for a variable frequency and pulse width square wave generator to be used in driving the precursor injection process. My task throughout the remainder of my tenure is to continue to analyze and develop tools for the analysis of electrical properties of the CuInS2 cells with the ultimate goal of discovering ways to improve the efficiency of our photovoltaic cells. Traditionally, photovoltaic cells are based on a single crystal silicon absorber. While The research group lead by Dr. Hepp has spent several years researching copper indium

Kasick, Michael P.↗

The Utilization Profiles of the CCSDS Unified Space Link Protocol (USLP)

The purpose of this paper is to identify the utilization profiles for interfacing the Data Protocol Sublayer using the Unified Space Link Protocols (USLP) (reference 1) with the space link coding procedures as specified in the CCSDS Coding & Synchronization Blue Books (references 2 through 5), used in both telecommand and telemetry applications. This paper describes how the USLP Protocol utilizes the coding and synchronization sublayer to support: a. Direct to Earth (DTE) telemetry links for engineering and science data b. Direct to Earth (DTE) telemetry links for very high rate science data c. Direct from Earth (DFE) command, sequencing and flight software loads d. Space to Space Links (Proximity) utilized by orbiters for data exchange to/from surface bound assets. The CCSDS has divided the functions of the Data Link Layer into two sublayers: the Data Link Protocol Sublayer (DLP-SL) and the Coding and Synchronization Sublayer (CS-SL). The Data Link Protocol Sublayer (DLP-SL) interfaces to the users, accepting the data that is to be transported, on the sending side of the link, and delivering that data on the receiving end. The Transfer Frame is the data unit that is transferred across the Data Link Protocol Sublayer and the Coding and Synchronization Sublayer boundary. The Coding and Synchronization Sublayer (CS-SL) provides the encoding, randomization, and frame synchronization functions that prepares the USLP Transfer Frame for transport across the space link. The CS-SL is divided into 2 processes: 1) The Frame Interface Processes (FIP) performs the interface functions required to prepare the data for delivery to the Coding/Decoding Process (CDP). This process includes prepending a Frame Start Marker to the provided frame, when management has designated that the frame is not to be aligned to the codeblock or when there is no block code used. 2) The Coding/Decoding Process (CDP) performs the forward error correction processes that are used to optimize the performance of the link and minimize the error rate. The CDP creates the symbol stream that is delivered to the Physical Layer. The transfer of the USLP transfer frames across different types of space links is the focus of this paper. The Protocol Data Unit (PDU) that is passed in both directions between the Data Link Protocol Sublayer (DLP-SL) and Coding and Synchronization Sublayer (CS-SL) is the transfer frame. The USLP frame structure provides flexibility that can be constrained by the functions utilized within the CS-SL that prepare the transfer frame for transit. For example, the USLP transfer frame contains a length field that enables the frame to be of variable length but CS-SL under certain conditions may constrain the frame to be fixed in length. This paper describes 5 operational modes available for use by the Data Link Layer to provide data exchange across the USLP space link. These modes are different because different operational requirements apply to vastly different types of space links and thus the communications implementation requirements differ. The environmental issues include the power or energy available, the distance between the end points of the link, the complexity of the equipment available at those end points, the atmospheric conditions and radiometric frequency selection. The CS-SL utilizes different forward error correcting codes supported by specific operational modes to configure the data for transit. This paper describes all of the operational modes in a series of data models which decompose the functionality between the Data Link Protocol Sublayer and the Coding and Synchronization sublayer. The operational modes described are: 1. Uncoded Mode: has been used for short links that contain significant available power to provide an acceptable frame error rate. The frames in this mode can be variable in length and typically use an error detection algorithm (i.e., CRC) to determine if there are errors in the received frame. 2. Convolutional Only Mode: is currently the prime forward error correction coding used for the proximity links. The frames in this mode can be variable in length and typically use an error detection algorithm (i.e., CRC) to determine if there are errors in the received frame. 3. Variable Length Frame Aligned to Variable Length Codeblock (TC): is used for Direct from Earth links were power levels are high and the simple, least complex code i.e., the BCH code is used. This mode has been in use since the early 1970s. The BCH code is a short code and the decoder is easy to implement. 4. Fixed Length Frame Aligned to Fixed Length Codeblock (AOS/TM): was introduced when the concatenated Convolutional and Reed-Solomon Code was formulated to provide significant reduction in link data error rate and the ability to determine if there was an error in the decoded codeblock. The frame is aligned to the codeblock so that there is a one to one relationship of frame errors to codeblock errors without additional error detection coding being added. This mode requires the protocol frames to be the exact size of the message portion of the codeblock. 5. Frames Unaligned to Fixed Length Codeblocks (Currently used for very high rates and space to space links): This mode is currently used for missions that have a very high data rate that can be controlled adaptively as the environment changes and as the next generation operating mode for the proximity link. This mode from a coded data stream point of view is exactly like that described in 4. above, except that the frame need not be aligned to the codeblock. There is no requirement on frame length when using this mode. Thus when using USLP it can be used to support links that require short or long frames. There is also no mandatory requirement that frames cannot be separated by idle data reducing the tight data rate connection requirements between the data link protocol sublayer and the coding & synchronization sublayer. In conclusion, how these operational modes can be put to use in mission operational scenarios is described for Direct from Earth links (DFE), Direct to Earth links (DTE), and Proximity links.

Greenberg, E.↗

Laser Sounder for Global Measurement of CO2 Concentrations in the Troposphere from Space: Progress

We describe progress toward developing a laser-based technique for the remote measurement of the tropospheric CO2 concentrations from orbit. Our goal is to demonstrate a lidar technique and instrument technology that will permit measurements of the CO2 column abundance in the lower troposphere from aircraft at the few ppm level, with a capability of scaling to permit global CO2 measurements from orbit. Accurate measurements of the tropospheric CO2 mixing ratio from space are challenging due to the many potential error sources. These include possible interference from other trace gas species, the effects of temperature, clouds, aerosols & turbulence in the path, changes in surface reflectivity, and variability in dry air density caused by changes in atmospheric pressure, water vapor and topographic height. Some potential instrumental errors include frequency drifts in the transmitter, small transmission and sensitivity drifts in the instrument. High signal-to-noise ratios and measurement stability are needed for mixing ratio estimates at the few ppm level. We have been developing a laser sounder approach as a candidate for a future space mission. It utilizes multiple different laser transmitters to permit simultaneous measurement of CO2 and O2 extinction, and aerosol backscatter in the same measurement path. It directs the narrow co-aligned laser beams from the instrument's fiber lasers toward nadir, and measures the energy of the strong laser echoes reflected from the Earth's land and water surfaces. During the measurement its narrow linewidth lasers are rapidly tuned on- and off- selected CO2 line near 1572 nm and an O2 absorption line near 770 nm. The receiver measures the energies of the laser echoes from the surface and any clouds and aerosols in the path with photon counting detectors. Ratioing the on- to off-line echo pulse energies for each gas permits the column extinction and column densities of CO2 and O2 to be estimated simultaneously via the differential absorption lidar technique. For the on-line wavelengths, the side of the selected absorption lines are used, which due to pressure broadening, weights the measurements to the lower troposphere, where CO2 variations caused by surface sources and sinks are largest. Simultaneous measurements of O2 column abundance are made using an identical approach using an O2 line. The laser backscatter profiles from clouds and aerosols are measured with other lidar channels, which permits identifying measurements influenced by clouds and/or aerosol scattering in the path. For space use, our lidar would continuously measure at nadir in near polar circular orbit. Using dawn and dusk measurements made over the same region will make it possible to sample the diurnal variations in CO2 mixing ratios. A 1-m diameter telescope is used for the receiver for all wavelengths. When averaging over 50 seconds, our calculations show a SNR of approximately 1500 is achievable for each gas at each on- and off-line measurement. Measurements from such a mission can be used to generate monthly global maps of the lower tropospheric CO2 column abundance. Our calculations show global coverage with an accuracy of a few ppm with a spatial resolution of approximately 50,000 sq. km are achievable each month. We have demonstrated some key elements of the laser, detector and receiver approaches in the laboratory and with measurements over a 206 m horizontal path. These include stable measurements of CO2 line shapes in an absorption cell using a fiber laser amplifier seeded by a tunable diode laser, measurement of small amplitude changes at low optical signal levels with the PMT receiver, and comparison of the horizontal path measurements of CO2 against those from an in-situ instrument.

Abshire, J. B.↗

Consequences of Different Air-Sea Feedbacks on Ocean Using MITgcm and MERRA-2 Forcing: Implications for Coupled Data Assimilation Systems

Ocean surface flux estimates from atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses contain errors that compensate for inaccuracies in the respective atmosphere and ocean models used to generate these reanalyses. A conundrum for climate studies is the discrepancy between surface fluxes that minimize model-data differences for an atmosphere-only model vs surface fluxes that minimize model-data differences for an ocean model. As a first step towards a consistent coupled ocean-atmosphere data-assimilation (DA) system, we compare surface net heat flux from a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), to net heat flux from a state-of-the-art ocean state estimate, the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean Version 4 (ECCO-v4). The possible impacts of the MERRA-2 and ECCO-v4 air-sea net heat flux difference in a coupled DA system were assessed using a set of experiments designed to imitate different “flavors” of a coupled DA system in an ocean-only setup. This was done by forcing the ECCO-v4 underlying ocean model - the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) - with different sets of MERRA-2 fields and utilizing different forcing methods. By doing so we were able to turn off different air-sea feedbacks which, in a coupled DA setup, are partially muted by the constraining observations. The set of experiments, therefore, represents a range of active feedbacks in different “flavors” of coupled data-assimilation systems. For the period 1992–2011, MERRA-2 net heat flux has a global mean difference of -4.9 Wm(exp -2) relative to ECCO-v4. When MERRA-2 surface fields are used to force MITgcm, imbalances in the energy and the hydrological cycles of MERRA-2, which are directly related to the fact that MERRA-2 was created without an interactive ocean, propagate to the ocean. The experiment in which MITgcm is forced with MERRA-2 fluxes (MERRA-2-flux experiment) results in a 2.5°C global mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) cooling, a 1m reduction in global mean sea level, and other drastic changes in the large scale ocean circulation relative to those resulting when the MITgcm is forced with the optimized ECCO-v4 net heat flux (the ECCO-v4 experiment itself). When MITgcm is forced with MERRA-2 state variables (MERRA-2-state experiment), the SST is somewhat restored to the observed SST, but the errors are shifted to the water cycle, resulting in a global mean sea level increase of 2.7 m. To further explore the pros and cons of these two approaches, we introduce a new intermediate forcing method in which the ocean is forced with turbulent fluxes but has a long wave feedback. This method, unlike MERRA-2 state, preserves the MERRA-2 water and salinity cycles, and it reduces the SST error compared to the MERRA-2-flux experiment, but the SST is not as good as that in the MERRA-2-state experiment. Our results have implications for ocean-model forcing recipes and clearly reveal the undesirable consequences of limiting the feedbacks in either these types of experiments or in coupled DA.

Ehud Strobach↗