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Results for “variability analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Two-step charge density wave transition and hidden transient phase in 1 T – TiSe 2

Using variable temperature atomic pair distribution function analysis, we study the emergence of charge density wave (CDW) order in 1T-TiSe 2 and find that it takes place via a two-step transition. First, upon decreasing temperature to about 235(3) K, CDW related lattice distortions emerge in the individual TiSe 2 layers alone. Then, upon further decreasing the temperature, the two-dimensional distortions in the layers couple and the widely recognized three-dimensional 2a o x 2a o x 2c o superstructure emerges at about 205(3) K. Because two different band gaps are known to emerge at the same temperatures, the finding indicates the presence of strong electron-phonon coupling. The transient phase between the two steps lacks inversion symmetry and may serve as a precursor of the debated chiral 1T-TiSe 2 phase. Finally, our findings are important for the understanding of the enigmatic CDW transition in 1T-TiSe 2 and CDW instabilities in van der Waals materials in general.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Double-differential inclusive charged-current ν μ cross sections on hydrocarbon in MINERvA at ( E ν ) ~ 3.5 GeV

MINERvA reports inclusive charged-current cross sections for muon neutrinos on hydrocarbon in the NuMI beamline. We measured the double-differential cross section in terms of the longitudinal and transverse muon momenta, as well as the single-differential cross sections in those variables. The data used in this analysis correspond to an exposure of 3.34×10 20 protons on target with a peak neutrino energy of approximately 3.5 GeV. Measurements are compared to the GENIE, NuWro and GiBUU neutrino cross-section predictions, as well as a version of GENIE modified to produce better agreement with prior exclusive MINERvA measurements. None of the models or variants were able to successfully reproduce the data across the entire phase space, which includes areas dominated by each interaction channel.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting soil carbon changes in switchgrass grown on marginal lands under climate change and adaptation strategies

Abstract The United States Great Lakes Region (USGLR) is a critical geographic area for future bioenergy production. Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) is widely considered a carbon (C)‐neutral or C‐negative bioenergy production system, but projected increases in air temperature and precipitation due to climate change might substantially alter soil organic C (SOC) dynamics and storage in soils. This study examined long‐term SOC changes in switchgrass grown on marginal land in the USGLR under current and projected climate, predicted using a process‐based model (Systems Approach to Land‐Use Sustainability) extensively calibrated with a wealth of plant and soil measurements at nine experimental sites. Simulations indicate that these soils are likely a net C sink under switchgrass (average gain 0.87 Mg C ha −1 year −1 ), although substantial variation in the rate of SOC accumulation was predicted (range: 0.2–1.3 Mg C ha −1 year −1 ). Principal component analysis revealed that the predicted intersite variability in SOC sequestration was related in part to differences in climatic characteristics, and to a lesser extent, to heterogeneous soils. Although climate change impacts on switchgrass plant growth were predicted to be small (4%–6% decrease on average), the increased soil respiration was predicted to partially negate SOC accumulations down to 70% below historical rates in the most extreme scenarios. Increasing N fertilizer rate and decreasing harvest intensity both had modest SOC sequestration benefits under projected climate, whereas introducing genotypes better adapted to the longer growing seasons was a much more effective strategy. Best‐performing adaptation scenarios were able to offset >60% of the climate change impacts, leading to SOC sequestration 0.7 Mg C ha −1 year −1 under projected climate. On average, this was 0.3 Mg C ha −1 year −1 more C sequestered than the no adaptation baseline. These findings provide crucial knowledge needed to guide policy and operational management for maximizing SOC sequestration of future bioenergy production on marginal lands in the USGLR.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Novel Method for Preoperative Positioning of Total Ankle Replacement Using 3D Digital Model

Abstract Objective To establish a digital model of the ankle joint through 3D imaging technology and explore the preoperative placement of ankle replacement prostheses. Methods Computed tomography images of intact ankle joints from 54 cases in the outpatient and inpatient departments of our hospital were collected; according to the INBONE® total ankle system surgery process, the surgery model and surgical osteotomy were finished using MIMICS based on computer simulation method. The shortest distance was measured between the center point and the anterior, posterior, medial, and lateral, respectively, to ensure the precise position of the ankle replacement prosthesis by digital simulation surgery. The relationship between the two variables was analyzed by bivariate correlation analysis. Results The dataset of this study included 48 cases of the sub‐data set (26 males and 22 females) and included 27 cases of left ankle and 21 cases of right ankle. The average medial malleolar angle was 18.67°± 2.87°, the average amount of bone resection was 12.13 ± 1.86 cm 3 , the mid‐anterior distance was 1.72 ± 0.19 cm, the mid‐posterior distance was 2.00 ± 0.19 cm, the ratio of mid‐anterior to mid‐posterior was 0.87, the mid‐medial distance was 1.26 ± 0.17 cm, the mid‐lateral distance was 1.19 ± 0.16 cm, and the ratio of mid‐medial to mid‐lateral was 1.06. After osteotomy, the anteroposterior diameter was 3.73 ± 0.32 cm, the transverse diameter was 2.46 ± 0.27 cm, and the ratio of anteroposterior diameter to transverse diameter was 1.53. In the bottom view, the shape after osteotomy is rectangular. The mid‐anterior distance was strongly negatively correlated with age, the mid‐anterior distance and the amount of bone resection, the mid‐medial distance and the amount of bone resection, the mid‐lateral distance and the amount of bone resection, the mid‐lateral distance and the anteroposterior diameter, the anteroposterior diameter and the transverse diameter were all strongly positively correlated. Conclusion The projection point of the lower tibia centerline on the tibial horizontal osteotomy surface is located at a position slightly anterior to the midpoint of the transverse diameter after ankle arthroplasty. The rational positioning of the total ankle replacement is located at both a position slightly anterior to the midpoint of the transverse diameter and midpoint of the anteroposterior diameter, which can be used as a reference method before total ankle arthroplasty surgery.

Wu, Shi‐xun↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting initial trans-membrane pressure across cycles in the ultrafiltration process using random forest

With growing freshwater scarcity, direct potable reuse (DPR) systems that reclaim wastewater for drinking are becoming increasingly important for sustainable water supply. Reliable operation requires minimizing downtime in ultrafiltration (UF) units, where membrane fouling leads to elevated trans-membrane pressure (TMP). This study develops data-driven regression models based on random forest (RF) and autoregressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial TMP at the start of each UF filtration cycle in a pilot-scale DPR system. The RF model consistently outperforms baseline methods, including historical mean, last observation carried forward, and AR models, across multiple forecast horizons, achieving the lowest root mean square error. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent input variables across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is assessed for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches. The proposed RF framework establishes a robust foundation for predictive monitoring and real-time optimization of UF operations, supporting sustainable and reliable water reuse.

direct potable reuse↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Evolving Role of Extreme Weather Events in the U.S. Power System with High Levels of Variable Renewable Energy

As weather-dependent renewable generation grows, it is important for power system planning to understand the broad trends and correlations between weather, renewable resources, and load. The traditional planning, performed by utilities and system operators, includes the study of system resource adequacy during peak load periods in the summer and winter to ensure the generation and transmission system is appropriate to meet load. But in a power grid with a high penetration of variable renewable energy (i.e., wind and solar), periods of high risk to system resource adequacy may no longer correspond only to hours of peak load. In particular, high shares of variable renewable energy, even when well-forecasted to inform system operations, can further complicate the stress extreme weather events already place on the grid. They also may lead to changes to the types of weather conditions that are most problematic to system operations and resource adequacy due to widespread and extended deficits of wind and solar generation. Accordingly, the focus of reliability assessments in long-term planning studies may need to evolve in the coming years to more fully incorporate weather events that lead to these deficits. This report seeks to identify these new weather events and understand the characteristics of the events that lead to system risk of future systems with higher penetrations variable renewable energy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Two-Dimensional Silk Crystal Films as Matrix Layer for High-Performance Microelectronics

This study explores a bio-inspired approach for memristive devices by combining Keggin-type polyoxometalates (POMs)-[SiW 12 O 40 ] 4 (POM-T) and [PW 12 O 40 ] 3 (POM-P), with silk fibroin (SF) to create 2D SF–POM layers on highly ordered pyrolytic graphite (HOPG) as resistive switching layers for memristors. We propose that the ordered SF layer template 0D POMs facilitate the formation of conductive filaments, thereby enhancing the variability of the manufactured memristors. AFM analysis revealed that both SF and SF–POM layers shared similar morphologies, while SF–POM–T formed larger aggregates, likely due to the stronger acidity of POM-T, which probably caused SF to aggregate and alter its secondary structure. Scanning Kelvin probe microscopy (SKPM) revealed that POMs reduced the contact potential difference of HOPG, resulting in lower work functions. Compared to an SF device, the SF–POM–P device showed improved memristive behavior, with a larger current gap and good repeatability over multiple sweeps; whereas the SF–POM–T device did not exhibit memristor activity, likely due to acidity-induced disruption of the SF template’s order and CF formation. More importantly, SF–POM–P devices also demonstrated programmable memristive states. Finally, combining simulation-driven memristor modeling, we showcase a co-design workflow for advancing bioinspired memristors through new materials design, synthesis, and device modeling and development.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Education for PV Modeling Professionals: Observations from the 2025 PVPMC Workshop

We surveyed professionals in the photovoltaic industry to understand interests in education and training for performance modeling of solar power systems. We found that most professionals are self-taught and rely on a variety of public sources of technical materials. Available formal education, such as courses or certification programs, either lacks detail or is focused on software user training. Responses indicate several opportunities to create public resources that would benefit professional learning for solar power system modeling: • Create a glossary of terms and common variable names. • Develop guidance on uncertainty analysis in the context of solar power systems modeling. • Assemble a catalog of available educational materials and data sources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying the Effect of Economic Development Zones on Electrical Load Growth in Kentucky [Slides]

The Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet has recently undertaken a comprehensive effort to map and catalog potential economic development sites across the state. The purpose of this technical assistance is to quantify the potential impact of developing designated sites on Kentucky's electricity load growth, providing insights at both state and county level considering the next 10 years. This analysis should explicitly incorporate and address key project uncertainties by developing various load growth scenarios that account for development scale, site specificity, and sector variability. The need for a site-specific analysis comes from the understanding that conventional econometric (top-down) load forecasting models cannot sufficiently isolate or predict the discrete load increases resulting from the development of these unique and targeted economic sites.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A novel approach for tetrahedral-element-based finite element simulations of anisotropic hyperelastic intervertebral disc behavior

Intervertebral discs are microstructurally complex spinal tissues that add greatly to the flexibility and mechanical strength of the human spine. Attempting to provide an adjustable basis for capturing a wide range of mechanical characteristics and to better address known challenges of numerical modeling of the disc, we present a robust finite-element-based model formulation for spinal segments in a hyperelastic framework using tetrahedral elements. We evaluate the model stability and accuracy using numerical simulations, with particular attention to the degenerated intervertebral discs and their likely skewed and narrowed geometry. To this end, 1) annulus fibrosus is modeled as a fiber-reinforced Mooney-Rivlin type solid for numerical analysis. 2) An adaptive state-variable dependent explicit time step is proposed and utilized here as a computationally efficient alternative to theoretical estimates. 3) Tetrahedral-element-based FE models for spinal segments under various loading conditions are evaluated for their use in robust numerical simulations. For flexion, extension, lateral bending, and axial rotation load cases, numerical simulations reveal that a suitable framework based on tetrahedral elements can provide greater stability and flexibility concerning geometrical meshing over commonly employed hexahedral-element-based ones for representation and study of spinal segments in various stages of degeneration.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Orbital Refinement and Stellar Properties for the HD 9446, HD 43691, and HD 179079 Planetary Systems

The Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey is a project that aims to detect transits of intermediate-long period planets by refining orbital parameters of the known radial velocity planets using additional data from ground-based telescopes, calculating a revised transit ephemeris for the planet, then monitoring the planet host star during the predicted transit window. Here we present the results from three systems that had high probabilities of transiting planets: HD 9446 b and c, HD 43691 b, and HD 179079 b. We provide new radial velocity (RV) measurements that are then used to improve the orbital solution for the known planets. We search the RV data for indications of additional planets in orbit and find that HD 9446 shows a strong linear trend of 4.8σ. Using the newly refined planet orbital solutions, which include a new best-fit solution for the orbital period of HD 9446 c, and an improved transit ephemerides, we found no evidence of transiting planets in the photometry for each system. Transits of HD 9446 b can be ruled out completely and transits HD 9446 c and HD 43691 b can be ruled out for impact parameters up to b = 0.5778 and b = 0.898, respectively, due to gaps in the photometry. A transit of HD 179079 b cannot be ruled out, however, due to the relatively small size of this planet compared to the large star and thus low signal to noise. We determine properties of the three host stars through spectroscopic analysis and find through photometric analysis that HD 9446 exhibits periodic variability.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Availability Estimates of Low-Cost, Dispatch-Constrained Electricity (LDE)

This dataset accompanies the report "Potential Availability of and Supply Curves for Low-Cost, Dispatch-Constrained Electricity", which provides initial estimates of the quantity and availability of the potential low-cost, dispatch-constrained electricity (LDE) resource in the United States under scenarios with high variable renewable energy (VRE) penetrations. The analysis also estimates supply curves that can be used in subsequent analysis of the opportunity to use the LDE. The estimated LDE resource could be used for various applications that value low-cost electricity and can operate at reduced capacity factors, including electrolytic hydrogen production and carbon capture. The analysis accompanying this dataset was performed in 2018-2019 to support an analysis of "The Technical and Economic Potential of the H2@Scale Concept within the United States" ( https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy21osti/77610.pdf ). This dataset includes the quantity of estimated LDE resource for each hour of the year in 2050, aggregated to both the national level and the ReEDS balancing area level. As described in the accompanying report, the ReEDS model was used to project the evolution of the power sector over time. Links to the mapping of ReEDS balancing areas to states and ReEDS balancing area shape files are provided. This dataset also includes the report figure data.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Model of Large Scale Electrochemical Direct Ocean Capture Under Variable Power

Since limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C by 2100 will not only require an energy transition but also billions of tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal per year, it is essential to expand these efforts. This can be done offshore via electrochemical direct ocean capture (eChem DOC) which extracts CO2 from seawater that can later be stored underground or converted to products. Deployments of eChem DOC will be powered by renewable energy and therefore need to function with variable power inputs. This project aims to support future large-scale deployments by developing a model of eChem DOC operation, informed by industry and literature, and assessing its performance under variable power and varying designs. Initial analysis suggests that discretizing the eChem system has a higher impact on increasing overall capture than storing the chemical solutions to continue capture during periods of lower power availability, but this is likely situation dependent. Future work will use more realistic power profiles.

direct ocean capture↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Nationwide Supply Chain for Circularity of PET and Olefin Plastics

PET (Polyethylene Terephthalate, #1) and olefin plastics including HDPE (High Density Polyethylene, #2), LDPE/LLDPE (Low Density/Linear Low-Density Polyethylene, #4) and PP (Polypropylene, #5) together comprise nearly 80% of the U.S. plastic market. Due to their high market share and extensive application in packaging these polymers have better potential for circularity than other polymer types. To understand the potential of future scenarios with higher recycling rates, supply chain scenarios for PET and olefin plastic packaging need to be analyzed with increased availability and collection of plastics. Currently there exists a knowledge gap to understand the circular supply chain on a national level. Performing a nationwide analysis introduces certain challenges such as variability in the plastic mix of the recycling stream in different municipalities, lack of collection of some types of plastics, regional differences in cost and estimating a national supply curve based on state level access rate and participation rate. Currently, a limited number of Plastic Reclaimers recycle the nation’s collected plastic involving transportation over long distances surpassing state boundaries. Modeling a nationwide scenario instead of regional/state based scenario will facilitate transportation beyond state boundaries for the development of a circular economy. A Mixed-integer Linear Programming model was developed, to identify the optimal location and capacity of the Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) nationwide subject to maximizing the profit margin of the industrial entities within the model. We considered three different scenarios including the base case scenario (S1) collecting 2.27 million metric tons/year as well as two additional scenarios with available plastic supply of 1.8 times (S2) and 2.2 times (S3) of the base case scenario. The model identified 166, 275 and 319 counties as potential MRF locations for scenarios S1, S2 and S3 respectively. Compared to the existing number of counties having MRFs in the US, the model results indicated a reduction of 38% of MRFs for S1. For S2 and S3, the number of counties with MRFs increased 3% and 20% respectively compared to counties currently with MRFs. The average profit remains constant between $180-$181/ton regardless of the increased plastic collection.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparative Analysis of Natural Gas Cogeneration Incentives on Electricity Production in Latin America

An analysis to assess the influence of country-dependent variables and incentives on the feasibility of natural gas cogeneration projects in Latin America is presented in this work. The analysis is performed using a hypothetical industrial plant, where the cogeneration solution consists in the recovery of waste heat from the power generation for steam production. The feasibility is evaluated by calculating the Return of Investment (ROI) and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the project. Eight Latin American countries are studied considering their specific natural gas markets, regulation, and macroeconomic variables. Two scenarios, electricity production for self-consumption and electricity production with power surplus sale, are independently analyzed considering the effects of available incentives. In the countries where the project is feasible, the application of incentives leads to a significant reduction in the ROI and, consequently, to an increment in the IRR. The effect of the interest rate and environmental impact were also analyzed. In general terms, along the region, the regulation for cogeneration is incipient while incentives are very standard and similar respect to lowering of import, Value-Added Tax (VAT), and income taxes, which seems to be designed purely to promote capital investment. Following the results from this study, it is of paramount importance to create new policy instruments in the future to advance the regulatory framework for cogeneration in Latin America.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Identification and Characterization of ten Escherichia coli Strains Encoding Novel Shiga Toxin 2 Subtypes, Stx2n as Well as Stx2j, Stx2m, and Stx2o, in the United States

The sharing of genome sequences in online data repositories allows for large scale analyses of specific genes or gene families. This can result in the detection of novel gene subtypes as well as the development of improved detection methods. Here, we used publicly available WGS data to detect a novel Stx subtype, Stx2n in two clinical E. coli strains isolated in the USA. During this process, additional Stx2 subtypes were detected; six Stx2j, one Stx2m strain, and one Stx2o, were all analyzed for variability from the originally described subtypes. Complete genome sequences were assembled from short- or long-read sequencing and analyzed for serotype, and ST types. The WGS data from Stx2n- and Stx2o-producing STEC strains were further analyzed for virulence genes pro-phage analysis and phage insertion sites. Nucleotide and amino acid maximum parsimony trees showed expected clustering of the previously described subtypes and a clear separation of the novel Stx2n subtype. WGS data were used to design OMNI PCR primers for the detection of all known stx1 (283 bp amplicon), stx2 (400 bp amplicon), intimin encoded by eae (221 bp amplicon), and stx2f (438 bp amplicon) subtypes. These primers were tested in three different laboratories, using standard reference strains. An analysis of the complete genome sequence showed variability in serogroup, virulence genes, and ST type, and Stx2 pro-phages showed variability in size, gene composition, and phage insertion sites. The strains with Stx2j, Stx2m, Stx2n, and Stx2o showed toxicity to Vero cells. Stx2j carrying strain, 2012C-4221, was induced when grown with sub-inhibitory concentrations of ciprofloxacin, and toxicity was detected. Taken together, these data highlight the need to reinforce genomic surveillance to identify the emergence of potential new Stx2 or Stx1 variants. The importance of this surveillance has a paramount impact on public health. Per our description in this study, we suggest that 2017C-4317 be designated as the Stx2n type-strain.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A software package for modeling and simulating fault graphs

This report describes a novel fault graph modeling language and a simulation tool for executing models specified in the language. The modeling language has three primary features that distinguish it from similar reliability analysis tools. These are (1) a random variable modeling several distinct outcomes of a single fault; (2) chains of faults in which one fault triggers another; and (3) time to fail sampled from probability distributions including positive normal, exponential, Weibull with a minimum, or immediate. These features are motivated by their use in a historical analysis of centrifuge reliability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗