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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Validation of the DESI 2024 Lyα forest BAO analysis using synthetic datasets

The first year of data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) contains the largest set of Lyman-α (Lyα) forest spectra ever observed. This data, collected in the DESI Data Release 1 (DR1) sample, has been used to measure the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) feature at redshift z = 2.33. In this work, we use a set of 150 synthetic realizations of DESI DR1 to validate the DESI 2024 Lyα forest BAO measurement presented in [1]. The synthetic data sets are based on Gaussian random fields using the log-normal approximation. We produce realistic synthetic DESI spectra that include all major contaminants affecting the Lyα forest. The synthetic data sets span a redshift range 1.8 < z < 3.8, and are analyzed using the same framework and pipeline used for the DESI 2024 Lyα forest BAO measurement. To measure BAO, we use both the Lyα auto-correlation and its cross-correlation with quasar positions. We use the mean of correlation functions from the set of DESI DR1 realizations to show that our model is able to recover unbiased measurements of the BAO position. We also fit each mock individually and study the population of BAO fits in order to validate BAO uncertainties and test our method for estimating the covariance matrix of the Lyα forest correlation functions. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results and identify the needs for the next generation of Lyα forest synthetic data sets, with the top priority being to simulate the effect of BAO broadening due to non-linear evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NR↗
NASA NTRS2012

Validation of MODIS FLH and In Situ Chlorophyll a from Tampa Bay, Florida (USA)

Satellite observation of phytoplankton concentration or chlorophyll-a (chla) is an important characteristic, critically integral to monitoring coastal water quality. However, the optical properties of estuarine and coastal waters are highly variable and complex and pose a great challenge for accurate analysis. Constituents such as suspended solids and dissolved organic matter and the overlapping and uncorrelated absorptions in the blue region of the spectrum renders the blue-green ratio algorithms for estimating chl-a inaccurate. Measurement of suninduced chlorophyll fluorescence, on the other hand, which utilizes the near infrared portion of the electromagnetic spectrum may, provide a better estimate of phytoplankton concentrations. While modelling and laboratory studies have illustrated both the utility and limitations of satellite algorithms based on the sun induced chlorophyll fluorescence signal, few have examined the empirical validity of these algorithms or compared their accuracy against bluegreen ratio algorithms . In an unprecedented analysis using a long term (2003-2011) in situ monitoring data set from Tampa Bay, Florida (USA), we assess the validity of the FLH product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer against a suite of water quality parameters taken in a variety of conditions throughout this large optically complex estuarine system. . Overall, the results show a 106% increase in the validity of chla concentration estimation using FLH over the standard chla estimate from the blue-green OC3M algorithm. Additionally, a systematic analysis of sampling sites throughout the bay is undertaken to understand how the FLH product responds to varying conditions in the estuary and correlations are conducted to see how the relationships between satellite FLH and in situ chlorophyll-a change with depth, distance from shore, from structures like bridges, and nutrient concentrations and turbidity. Such analysis illustrates that the correlations between FLH and in situ chla measurements increases with increasing distance between monitoring sites and structures like bridges and shore. Due probably to confounding factors, expected improvement in the FLH- chla relationship was not clearly noted when increasing depth and distance from shore alone (not including bridges). Correlations between turbidity and nutrient concentrations are discussed further and principle component analyses are employed to address the relationships between the multivariate data sets. A thorough understanding of how satellite FLH algorithms relate to in situ water quality parameters will enhance our understanding of how MODIS s global FLH algorithm can be used empirically to monitor coastal waters worldwide.

Fischer, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS1991

Determination of the in-flight spectral and radiometric characteristics of the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS)

AVIRIS is a science research imaging spectrometer that measures radiance in 224 channels between 400 to 2450 nm in the electromagnetic spectrum. To determine the inflight spectral and radiometric characteristics of AVIRIS a validation and calibration experiment was performed. Five data sets were acquired over a calibration site on the homogeneous playa of Rogers Dry Lake, California, U.S. Surface reflectance, atmospheric optical depths, and atmospheric water vapor measurements were acquired concurrently with the overflights. These in situ measurements were used to constrain the LOWTRAN 7 radiative transfer code to predict the total spectral radiance incident at the AVIRIS aperture. These predicted radiances and the AVIRIS measured radiances were analyzed to validate the inflight characteristics. Inflight spectral channel positions and response functions over the AVIRIS spectral range were derived. Radiometric calibration coefficients were calculated for each channel as well as radiometric accuracy, intraflight stability, and noise equivalent delta radiance.

Green, Robert O.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Update on Apollo Data Restoration by the NSSDC and the PDS Lunar Data Node

The Lunar Data Node (LDN) , under the auspices of the Geosciences Node of the Planetary Data System (PDS) and the National Space Science Data Center (NSSDC), is continuing its efforts to recover and restore Apollo science data. The data being restored are in large part archived with NSSDC on older media, but unarchived data are also being recovered from other sources. They are typically on 7- or 9-track magnetic tapes, often in obsolete formats, or held on microfilm, microfiche, or paper documents. The goal of the LDN is to restore these data from their current form, which is difficult for most researchers to access, into common digital formats with all necessary supporting data (metadata) and archive the data sets with PDS. Restoration involves reading the data from the original media, deciphering the data formats to produce readable digital data and converting the data into usable tabular formats. Each set of values in the table must then be understood in terms of the quantity measured and the units used. Information on instrument properties, operational history, and calibrations is gathered and added to the data set, along with pertinent references, contacts, and other ancillary documentation. The data set then undergoes a peer review and the final validated product is archived with PDS. Although much of this effort has concentrated on data archived at NSSDC in the 1970's, we have also recovered data and information that were never sent to NSSDC. These data, retrieved from various outside sources, include raw and reduced Gamma-Ray Spectrometer data from Apollos 15 and 16, information on the Apollo 17 Lunar Ejecta And Meteorites experiment, Dust Detector data from Apollos 11, 12, 14, and I5, raw telemetry tapes from the Apollo ALSEPs, and Weekly Status Reports for all the Apollo missions. These data are currently being read or organized, and supporting data is being gathered. We are still looking for the calibrated heat flow data from Apollos 15 and 17 for the period 1975-1977, any assistance or information on these data would be welcome. NSSDC has recently been tasked to release its hard-copy archive, comprising photography, microfilm, and microfiche. The details are still being discussed, but we are concentrating on recovering the valuable lunar data from these materials while they are still readily accessible. We have identified the most critical of these data and written a LASER proposal to fund their restoration. Included in this effort are data from the Apollo 15 and 16 Mass Spectrometers and the Apollo 17 Par-UV Spectrometer and ancillary information on the Apollo 17 Surface Electrical Properties Experiment.

Williams, David R.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Shuttle Continuous Open Wind Tunnel (SCOWT)

The aerodynamic and heat transfer coefficients are studied within the range of thermo-fluid-dynamic conditions experienced by a satellite during Tethered Satellite System (TSS) atmospheric flights. The gasdynamic processes occuring downstream of the bow wave standing in front of the satellite are also studied. The knowledge of the chemistry and physics of the upper atmosphere related to satellite aerothermodynamics is furthered. The existence of an overshooting of the air drag coefficient of the sphere in the transition regime is validated. A complete set of measurements is performed in order to provide the data base to develop and validate theoretical models of free molecule transition flow fields.

Carlomagno, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Jet-Surface Interaction Test: Flow Measurements Results

Modern aircraft design often puts the engine exhaust in close proximity to the airframe surfaces. Aircraft noise prediction tools must continue to develop in order to meet the challenges these aircraft present. The Jet-Surface Interaction Tests have been conducted to provide a comprehensive quality set of experimental data suitable for development and validation of these exhaust noise prediction methods. Flow measurements have been acquired using streamwise and cross-stream particle image velocimetry (PIV) and fluctuating surface pressure data acquired using flush mounted pressure transducers near the surface trailing edge. These data combined with previously reported far-field and phased array noise measurements represent the first step toward the experimental data base. These flow data are particularly applicable to development of noise prediction methods which rely on computational fluid dynamics to uncover the flow physics. A representative sample of the large flow data set acquired is presented here to show how a surface near a jet affects the turbulent kinetic energy in the plume, the spatial relationship between the jet plume and surface needed to generate surface trailing-edge noise, and differences between heated and unheated jet flows with respect to surfaces.

Flow↗
NASA NTRS2013

Ablator Response Model Development: From Flight Data Back to Fundamental Experiments

The successful Mars atmospheric entry by the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL-Curiosity) combined with the success of the Earth atmospheric entry by the Stardust capsule have established PICA as a major Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) material. We expect that this class of materials will be on the short list selected by NASA for any atmospheric entry missions and that it will be the lead of that list of materials in any planning, feasibility studies or flight readiness studies. In addition to NASAs successes, the Dragon capsule, the successful commercial space vehicle built by SpaceX, uses PICA-X, while the European Space Agency is considering ASTERM for its exploration missions that involve atmospheric entries, both of these materials are of the same family as PICA. In the talk, a high-fidelity model will be detailed and discussed. The model tracks the chemical composition of the gases produced during pyrolysis. As in the conventional models, it uses equilibrium chemistry to determine the recession rate at high temperatures but switches to in-volume finite-rate ablation for lower temperatures. It also tracks the time evolution of the porosity of the material. Progress in implementing this high-fidelity model in a code will be presented. In addition, a set of basic experimental data being supported for model validation will be summarized. The validation process for the model development will be discussed. Preliminary results will be presented for a case where detailed pyrolysis product chemistry is computed. Finally, a wish list for a set of validation experiments will be outlined and discussed.

Mansour, Nagi N.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Theory Validation - 2 Points of View

The task of validating any given theory against any given proprotor/propeller data set is of immense importance. Not just to the researchers who are developing a theory, but to the working engineers using the theory to design a proprotor/propeller. However, there is major difference in how the two groups see validation. This difference is that, most frequently, researchers see the validation in coefficient form as, for example, CP versus CT or Figure of Merit versus CT. In contrast, design engineers are always working in the dimensional world as, for example, horsepower required to hover versus aircraft weight. The objective of the design engineer is, of course, to release drawings and specifications to manufacturing so a VTOL aircraft will be built with reasonably high assurance that the aircraft will meet the primary specifications.

Harris, Franklin D.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Data Mining of Historical Human Data to Assess the Risk of Injury due to Dynamic Loads

The NASA Occupant Protection Group is charged with ensuring crewmembers are protected during all dynamic phases of spaceflight. Previous work with outside experts has led to the development of a definition of acceptable risk (DAR) for space capsule vehicles. The DAR defines allowable probability rates for various categories of injuries. An important question is how to validate these probabilities for a given vehicle. One approach is to impact test human volunteers under projected nominal landing loads. The main drawback is the large number of subject tests required to attain a reasonable level of confidence that the injury probability rates would meet those outlined in the DAR. An alternative is to mine existing databases containing human responses to impact. Testing an anthropomorphic test device (ATD) at the same human‐exposure levels could yield a range of ATD responses that would meet DAR. As one aspect of future vehicle validation, the ATD could be tested in the vehicle's seat and suit configuration at nominal landing loads and compared with the ATD responses supported by the human data set. This approach could reduce the number of human‐volunteer tests NASA would need to conduct to validate that a vehicle meets occupant protection standards. METHODS: The U.S. Air Force has recorded hundreds of human responses to frontal, lateral, and spinal impacts at many acceleration levels and pulse durations. All of this data are stored on the Collaborative Biomechanics Data Network (CBDN), which is maintained by the Wright Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB). The test device for human occupant restraint (THOR) ATD was impact tested on WPAFB's horizontal impulse accelerator (HIA) matching human‐volunteer exposures on the HIA to 5 frontal and 3 spinal loading conditions. No human injuries occurred as a result of these impact conditions. Peak THOR response variables for neck axial tension and compression, and thoracic‐spine axial compression were collected. Maximal chest deflection was determined from motion capture video of the impact test. HIC‐ 15 and BRIC were calculated from head acceleration responses. Given the number of human subjects for each test condition a confidence interval of injury probability will be obtained. RESULTS: Results will be discussed in terms of injury‐risk probability estimates based on the human data set evaluated. Also, gaps in the data set will be identified. These gaps could be one of two types. One is areas where additional THOR testing would increase the comparable human data set, thereby improving confidence in the injury probability rate. The other is where additional human testing would assist in obtaining information on other acceleration levels or directions. DISCUSSION: The historical human data showed validity of the THOR ATD for supplemental testing. The historical human data are limited in scope, however. Further data are needed to characterize the effects of sex, age, anthropometry, and deconditioning due to spaceflight on risk of injury

Wells, Jesica↗
NASA NTRS1992

The Fifth Calibration/Data Product Validation Panel Meeting

The minutes and associated documents prepared from presentations and meetings at the Fifth Calibration/Data Product Validation Panel meeting in Boulder, Colorado, April 8 - 10, 1992, are presented. Key issues include (1) statistical characterization of data sets: finding statistics that characterize key attributes of the data sets, and defining ways to characterize the comparisons among data sets; (2) selection of specific intercomparison exercises: selecting characteristic spatial and temporal regions for intercomparisons, and impact of validation exercises on the logistics of current and planned field campaigns and model runs; and (3) preparation of data sets for intercomparisons: characterization of assumptions, transportable data formats, labeling data files, content of data sets, and data storage and distribution (EOSDIS interface).

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2018

Observations and Recommendations for the Calibration of Landsat 8 OLI and Sentinel 2 MSI for Improved Data Interoperability

Combining data from multiple sensors into a single seamless time series, also known as data interoperability, has the potential for unlocking new understanding of how the Earth functions as a system. However, our ability to produce these advanced data sets is hampered by the differences in design and function of the various optical remote-sensing satellite systems. A key factor is the impact that calibration of these instruments has on data interoperability. To address this issue, a workshop with a panel of experts was convened in conjunction with the Pecora 20 conference to focus on data interoperability between Landsat and the Sentinel 2 sensors. Four major areas of recommendation were the outcome of the workshop. The first was to improve communications between satellite agencies and the remote-sensing community. The second was to adopt a collections-based approach to processing the data. As expected, a third recommendation was to improve calibration methodologies in several specific areas. Lastly, and the most ambitious of the four, was to develop a comprehensive process for validating surface reflectance products produced from the data sets. Collectively, these recommendations have significant potential for improving satellite sensor calibration in a focused manner that can directly catalyze efforts to develop data that are closer to being seamlessly interoperable.

calibration; geometric; radiometric; Landsat; Sent↗
NASA NTRS2002

Flight Test Evaluation of the Airborne Information for Lateral Spacing (AILS) Concept

The Airborne Information for Lateral Spacing (AILS) concept is designed to support independent parallel approach operations to runways spaced as close as 2,500 feet. This report briefly describes the AILS operational concept and the results of a flight test of one implementation of this concept. The focus of this flight test experiment was to validate a prior simulator study, evaluating pilot performance, pilot acceptability, and minimum miss-distances for the rare situation in which an aircraft on one approach intrudes into the path of an aircraft on the other approach. Although the flight data set was not meant to be a statistically valid sample, the trends acquired in flight followed those of the simulator and therefore met the intent of validating the findings from the simulator. Results from this study showed that the design-goal mean miss-distance of 1,200 feet to potential collision situations was surpassed with an actual mean miss-distance of 1,859 feet. Pilot reaction times to the alerting system, which was an operational concern, averaged 0.65 seconds, were well below the design goal reaction time of 2.0 seconds. From the results of both of these tests, it can be concluded that this operational concept, with supporting technology and procedures, may provide an operationally viable means for conducting simultaneous, independent instrument approaches to runways spaced as close as 2500 ft.

Abbott, Terence S.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Multivariate normality

Sets of experimentally determined or routinely observed data provide information about the past, present and, hopefully, future sets of similarly produced data. An infinite set of statistical models exists which may be used to describe the data sets. The normal distribution is one model. If it serves at all, it serves well. If a data set, or a transformation of the set, representative of a larger population can be described by the normal distribution, then valid statistical inferences can be drawn. There are several tests which may be applied to a data set to determine whether the univariate normal model adequately describes the set. The chi-square test based on Pearson's work in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries is often used. Like all tests, it has some weaknesses which are discussed in elementary texts. Extension of the chi-square test to the multivariate normal model is provided. Tables and graphs permit easier application of the test in the higher dimensions. Several examples, using recorded data, illustrate the procedures. Tests of maximum absolute differences, mean sum of squares of residuals, runs and changes of sign are included in these tests. Dimensions one through five with selected sample sizes 11 to 101 are used to illustrate the statistical tests developed.

Crutcher, H. L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

New Raman Water Vapor and Temperature Lidar at JPL Table Mountain Facility: Optimization, Validations and Sonde Intercomparison

Jet Propulsion Laboratory currently operates lidar systems at Table Mountain Facility (TMF), California (34.4 deg N, 117.7 deg W at 2300m) and Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO), Hawaii (19.5 deg N, 155.6 deg W at 3400m) under the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC, formerly NDSC). To complement existing NDACC lidars at TMF, which acts as a primary site for inter-comparisons, a new water vapor and temperature lidar has begun routine operation with typically 3-4 nightly profiles per week. As water vapor is a key greenhouse gas, and is highly variable on annual and seasonal cycles, accurate long term measurements are necessary for predictions of climate change and to increase our understanding of the atmospheric processes it contributes to. The new TMF lidar has demonstrated high spatial and temporal resolution, with a high degree of optimization being achieved over the past year, although the authors believe further improvement may yet be possible. The lidar has been designed for accuracies of 5% up to 12km in the free troposphere with the capability to measure to the tropopause and lower stratosphere with accuracies of 1 ppm. It is anticipated that the data sets produced will be used for Aura validation and for incorporation into NDACC archives. Validation results for the optimized system are presented with intercomparisons using Vaisala RS92-K radiosondes.

water vapor↗
NASA NTRS2014

Cross-Calibration of Earth Observing System Terra Satellite Sensors MODIS and ASTER

The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emissive and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) are two of the five sensors onboard the Earth Observing System's Terra satellite. These sensors share many similar spectral channels while having much different spatial and operational parameters. ASTER is a tasked sensor and sometimes referred to a zoom camera of the MODIS that collects a full-earth image every one to two days. It is important that these sensors have a consistent characterization and calibration for continued development and use of their data products. This work uses a variety of test sites to retrieve and validate intercalibration results. The refined calibration of Collection 6 of the Terra MODIS data set is leveraged to provide the up-to-date reference for trending and validation of ASTER. Special attention is given to spatially matching radiance measurements using prelaunch spatial response characterization of MODIS. Despite differences in spectral band properties and spatial scales, ASTER-MODIS is an ideal case for intercomparison since the sensors have nearly identical views and acquisitions times and therefore can be used as a baseline of intercalibration performance of other satellite sensor pairs.

MODIS↗
NASA NTRS2018

Enriching the Twitter Stream Increasing Data Mining Yield and Quality Using Machine Learning

Social media data streams are important sources of real-time and historical global information for science applications. At the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), we are exploring the Twitter data stream for its potential in augmenting the validation program of NASA Earth science missions, specifically the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. We have implemented a tweet processing infrastructure that outputs classified precipitation tweets. Inputs are "passive" tweets, along with a smaller number of tweets from "active" participants, i.e., those knowingly contributing to our effort. The "active" tweets, presumably of higher quality, enrich the Twitter stream. "Active" sources include data scraped from other social media (e.g., public Facebook posts) and data from existing crowdsourcing programs (e.g., mPING reports). In addition, there is likely relevant precipitation information in images and documents that are the end points of links often included in tweets. Information derived from these "active" sources could then be tweeted into the Twitter stream, thus enriching its quality. The objective of our current work is to mine these tweet­ linked images and documents, using neural networks, to increase the information content and quality related to precipitation. For images, we classified them as either precipitation-related or not. For training and validation, we used images obtained via the Google custom search API. We created two models: (1) by training a simple Convolutional Neural Network and (2) by using transfer learning principles to adapt a pre-trained object recognition model. For documents, both those linked to tweets and the tweet contents, we trained Hierarchical Attention Networks to determine precipitation occurrence, type, and intensity. For training and validation, we used a keyword-filtered tweet data set labelled with ground truth data from Dark Sky (an API to retrieve weather-related labels) and the National Severe Storms Laboratory's Multi­ Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system. Our results demonstrated the efficacy of our machine learning approaches for enriching the Twitter stream, to derive information potentially useful for validation of earth science satellite data.

Albayrak, Arif↗
NASA NTRS2007

Uncertainty Analysis of Historical Hurricane Data

An analysis of variance (ANOVA) study was conducted for historical hurricane data dating back to 1851 that was obtained from the U. S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The data set was chosen because it is a large, publicly available collection of information, exhibiting great variability which has made the forecasting of future states, from current and previous states, difficult. The availability of substantial, high-fidelity validation data, however, made for an excellent uncertainty assessment study. Several factors (independent variables) were identified from the data set, which could potentially influence the track and intensity of the storms. The values of these factors, along with the values of responses of interest (dependent variables) were extracted from the data base, and provided to a commercial software package for processing via the ANOVA technique. The primary goal of the study was to document the ANOVA modeling uncertainty and predictive errors in making predictions about hurricane location and intensity 24 to 120 hours beyond known conditions, as reported by the data set. A secondary goal was to expose the ANOVA technique to a broader community within NASA. The independent factors considered to have an influence on the hurricane track included the current and starting longitudes and latitudes (measured in degrees), and current and starting maximum sustained wind speeds (measured in knots), and the storm starting date, its current duration from its first appearance, and the current year fraction of each reading, all measured in years. The year fraction and starting date were included in order to attempt to account for long duration cyclic behaviors, such as seasonal weather patterns, and years in which the sea or atmosphere were unusually warm or cold. The effect of short duration weather patterns and ocean conditions could not be examined with the current data set. The responses analyzed were the storm latitude, longitude and intensity, as recorded in the data set, 24 or 120 hours beyond the current state. Several ANOVA modeling schemes were examined. Two forms of validation were used: 1) comparison with official hurricane prediction performance metrics and 2) cases studies conducted on hurricanes from the 2005 season, which were not included within the model construction and ANOVA assessment. In general, the ANOVA technique did not perform as well as the established official prediction performance metrics published by NOAA; still, the technique did remarkably well in this demonstration with a difficult data set and could probably be made to perform better with more knowledge of hurricane development and dynamics applied to the problem. The technique provides a repeatable prediction process that eliminates the need for judgment in the forecast.

Green, Lawrence L.↗