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At least 289 records · Page 16

Status and Examples for the Version 06 IMERG Multi-Satellite Products

After five years of development following the launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) missionCore Observatory, the GPM data products are now being extended across the joint Tropical Rainfall MeasuringMission (TRMM) and GPM eras. Version 06 of the U.S. GPM team's Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals forGPM (IMERG) merged precipitation product provides a consistent intercalibration for all precipitation productscomputed from individual satellites with the TRMM and GPM Core Observatory sensors as the TRMM- andGPM-era calibrators, respectively, and incorporates monthly surface gauge data. One major change in the basicIMERG algorithm for V06 is that precipitation motion vectors (used to drive the quasi-Lagrangian interpolation,or "morphing") are computed by tracking vertically integrated vapor (TQV) fields analyzed in MERRA2 andGEOS5. This innovation provides globally complete coverage, expanding IMERG's coverage beyond the 60N-Slatitude band previously provided by IR-based vectors, although precipitation over snowy/icy surfaces is stillmasked out as unreliable. A second innovation is that the Quality Index (QI) data field computed for the half-hourlydatasets has been refined to include estimates of correlation at microwave overpass times.We will summarize the processing status for V06 IMERG, for which the retrospective processing shouldbe actively advancing at meeting time. We will show early examples of performance. For example, the TQVmotion vectors are typically slightly better than the IR-based vectors at all latitudes. The transition across theTRMM/GPM data boundary will be discussed, including the necessity of filling in the TRMM-based calibrationsover the latitude band 35-65 in each hemisphere. The notional schedule for the eventual retirement of thepredecessor TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) multi-satellite dataset will be updated as well.

Huffman, George J.↗

Fusion of Visible and Thermal-Infrared Imagery for SLAM for Landing on Icy Moons

This paper addresses the problem of localization for landing on the surface of icy moons, like Europa or Enceladus. Due to the possibility of specular reflection as well as high bulk albedo, icy surfaces present new challenges that make traditional vision-based navigation systems relying on visible imagery unreliable. We propose augmenting visible light cameras with a thermal-infrared camera using inverse-depth parameterized monocular EKF-SLAM to address problems arising from the appearance of icy moons. Results were obtained from a novel procedural Europa surface simulation which models the appearance and the thermal properties simultaneously from physically-based methods. In this framework, we show that thermal features improve localization by 23% on average when compared to a visible camera. Moreover, fusing both sensing modalities increases the improvement in localization to 31% on average, compared to using a visible light camera alone.

thermal vision↗

Multilevel Monte Carlo Estimation of Unbiased Expectation via Sample Reuse and the Low Variance Estimation of Asymptotic Rates

A new variant of the multilevel Monte Carlo estimator [5, 3, 9, 12] is presented for the estimation of expectation statistics that utilizes sample reuse in specified levels, explicitly removes approximation error bias associated with numerically computed output quantities of interest that have an asymptotic limit behavior, and permits a low variance estimate of the asymptotic rate of convergence to that limit. In addition, it is shown that this new multilevel Monte Carlo variant can yield a computational cost savings. A review of Monte Carlo and multilevel Monte Carlo estimators is presented that includes analysis of expected value, expected mean squared error, and the calculation of optimized multilevel sample size parameters. The multilevel Monte Carlo estimator produces estimates of expectation for numerically approximated output quantities of interest that are biased by approximation error. When the quantity of interest can be modeled as the asymptotic limit of numerically approximated output quantities of interest, it is theoretically possible to remove this approximation error bias in the multilevel Monte Carlo estimator. In actual implementations, however, this procedure is unreliable due to statistical variability and inaccuracy in estimating the needed asymptotic limit. Analysis and numerical experiment show that the proposed variant of the multilevel Monte Carlo method greatly reduces (in some cases eliminates) the statistical variability in this limit estimation.

Barth, Timothy↗

Algae to Enhance Water Recovery for Future Space Habitats

Bioregenerative technologies have been suggested for human life support in space for decades. Such technologies have not yet been incorporated due to 1) assumed unreliability and 2) bioregeneration rates for given processes are slower when compared to equivalent physical/chemical treatment technologies. Slower treatment capacity for biological system result in larger technology infrastructure (i.e., higher mass, power, and volume requirements), and thus less attractive. Current ISS (International Space Station) life support systems are strictly physical/chemical. However, bioregenerative systems are being suggested for future surface systems (on the Moon or Mars) due to the limited access to resupplied materials and continued need for resiliency and sustainability. In the realm of water reclamation, the ISS system processes only urine, metabolic condensates, and hygiene (i.e., handwash and oral, no shower or laundry) waters with 75 percent closure. For future surface habitats with 4 crew members, approximately 30 liters per day of wastewater will be generated, containing estimated 850 milligrams per liter NH4-N. Conventional algae PBRs (photobioreactors) require dilution to accommodate such high concentrations of ammonium. If dilution is required, resulting technology hardware will increase dramatically in mass. A new approach was explored, whereby high carbon dioxide (1200-2000 parts per million) and light (400-600 micromoles per square meter per second) conditions were provided to treat the undiluted wastewater stream. Daily treatment capacity for Chlorella sorokiniana and Chlorella vulgaris was observed to be 85 and 107 milligrams NH4-N per gram of biomass, respectively. This preliminary study shows that there is capacity to increase ammonium removal rates by algal species, and thus reactor size (mass and volume) for future surface systems. Smaller reactor volumes will help bioregenerative treatment technologies compete with the presently accepted physical/chemical treatment technologies.

Water Purification↗

Analytic Spacecraft Attitude and Rate Estimation Performance During Attitude Sensor Outages

Analytic expressions for spacecraft attitude and rate estimation performance of an attitude estimation filter in terms of sensor specifications are useful tools for spacecraft design. Farrenkopf (1978) famously found analytic expressions for steady-state pre-update and post-update attitude and gyro bias estimate error variances for an attitude estimation filter for a single-axis spacecraft with a Rate Output Gyro (ROG). Markley and Reynolds (2000) extended the analysis for a Rate-Integrating Gyro (RIG) with angle white noise. These expressions allow for the rapid evaluation of system performance during preliminary mission design phases. One contribution of this paper is the analytic calculation of the steady-state pre-update and post-update angular rate estimate uncertainty for both the ROG and RIG cases. The primary contribution of this paper is the extension of the results for both the ROG and the RIG cases to the situation of an attitude sensor outage. This situation arises frequently in practice; for example when a star sensor’s field of view is occluded, when a star sensor’s readings are unreliable during a thruster burn that vibrates the spacecraft, or during star sensor outages due to radiation upsets. Analytic expressions for the attitude estimate uncertainty, gyro bias estimate uncertainty, and angular rate estimate uncertainty are given in terms of the attitude sensor outage interval, the star tracker measurement noise, and gyro noise parameters. Validity of the analytic results is demonstrated via Monte Carlo simulation.

Galante, Joseph M.↗

Analytic Spacecraft Attitude and Rate Estimation Performance During Attitude Sensor Outages

Analytic expressions for spacecraft attitude and rate estimation performance of an attitude estimation filter in terms of sensor specifications are useful tools for spacecraft design. Farrenkopf (1978) famously found analytic expressions for steady-state pre-update and post-update attitude and gyro bias estimate error variances for an attitude estimation filter for a single-axis spacecraft with a Rate Output Gyro (ROG). Markley and Reynolds (2000) extended the analysis for a Rate-Integrating Gyro (RIG) with angle white noise. These expressions allow for the rapid evaluation of system performance during preliminary mission design phases. One contribution of this paper is the analytic calculation of the steady-state pre-update and post-update angular rate estimate uncertainty for both the ROG and RIG cases. The primary contribution of this paper is the extension of the results for both the ROG and the RIG cases to the situation of an attitude sensor outage. This situation arises frequently in practice; for example when a star sensor’s field of view is occluded, when a star sensor’s readings are unreliable during a thruster burn that vibrates the spacecraft, or during star sensor outages due to radiation upsets. Analytic expressions for the attitude estimate uncertainty, gyro bias estimate uncertainty, and angular rate estimate uncertainty are given in terms of the attitude sensor outage interval, the star tracker measurement noise, and gyro noise parameters. Validity of the analytic results is demonstrated via Monte Carlo simulation.

Galante, Joseph M.↗

Providing Data Access and Analysis Capabilities to SERVIR’s Data-Sparse Regions

In developing regions of the world, the communications infrastructure pose enormous challenges for using Earth observation data. Limited internet bandwidth along with the high costs make it almost impossible to process and extract zonal statistics over large periods of time for even small geographic areas. In such cases, downloading daily rainfall data or dekadal series of NDVI data would take days and consume all the bandwidth allocated to an organization (for reference, internet connections in Niger would cost thousands of dollars per month at a maximum - and unreliable - bandwidth of just 10 Mbps). Running crop models or hydrological models typically require several years of historic data over the area of interest (AOI). In some cases, these AOIs are relatively small compared to the footprint of individual earth observation granules. Hence, systems that let the stakeholders subset the data to download to a user specified area, or even submit processing requests that let them download small result files for the AOI become critical. The SERVIR program has developed a tool to provide this type of access to help decision makers in developing regions use long time series of adjusted rainfall data (CHIRPS), NDVI values, seasonal weather forecasts, evaporative stress indices and others in a very efficient manner. This system, named ClimateSERV (https://climateserv.servirglobal.net) ingests the datasets in an automated fashion and allows interactive access (through a web application), or automated access through a simple API that developers can quickly incorporate in independent applications. This way, the extraction of daily averages of rainfall over a 50 square Km area through 30 years of archived data takes only a few seconds to process, and the results can be presented on an online chart or downloaded in a comma separated file that's only a few Kb.

Ashmall, William↗

In-Time UAV Flight-Trajectory Estimation and Tracking Using Bayesian Filters

Rapid increase of UAV operation in the next decade in areas of on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement, traffic surveillance and several others pose potential risks to the low altitude airspace above densely populated areas. Safety assessment of airspace demands the need for a novel UAV traffic management (UTM) framework for regulation and tracking of the vehicles. Particularly for low-altitude UAV operations, quality of GPS measurements feeding into the UAV is often compromised by loss of communication link caused by presence of trees or tall buildings in proximity to the UAV flight path. Inaccurate GPS locations may yield to unreliable monitoring and inaccurate prognosis of remaining battery life and other safety metrics which rely on future expected trajectory of the UAV. This work therefore proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology for autonomous UAVs using in-time GPS measurements. Firstly, a typical 4D smooth trajectory generation technique from a series of waypoint locations with associated expected times-of-arrival based on B-spline curves is presented. Initial uncertainty in the vehicle's expected cruise velocity is quantified to compute confidence intervals along the entire flight trajectory using error interval propagation approach. Further, the generated planned trajectory is considered as the prior knowledge which is updated during its flight with incoming GPS measurements in order to estimate its current location and corresponding kinematic profiles. Estimation of position is denoted in dicrete state-space representation such that position at a future time step is derived from position and velocity at current time step and expected velocity at the future time step. A linear Bayesian filtering algorithm is employed to efficiently refine position estimation from noisy GPS measurements and update the confidence intervals. Further, a dynamic re-planning strategy is implemented to incorporate unexpected detour or delay scenarios. Finally, critical challenges related to uncertainty quantification in trajectory prognosis for autonomous vehicles are identified, and potential solutions are discussed at the end of the paper. The entire monitoring framework is demonstrated on real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center.

Banerjee, Portia↗

Reaching for 20 Years with the IMERG Multi-Satellite Products

The latest releases of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission products cap five years of vigorous development cycle since the launch of the GPM Core Observatory, and these now provide datasets that are relatively homogeneous across the joint Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and GPM eras. Version 06 of the U.S. GPM team's Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) merged precipitation product enforces a consistent intercalibration for all precipitation products computed from individual satellites with the TRMM and GPM Core Observatory sensors as the TRMM- and GPM era calibrators, respectively, and incorporates monthly surface gauge data. The basic IMERG algorithm now features precipitation motion vectors (used to drive the Lagrangian interpolation, or "morphing") that arecomputed by tracking vertically integrated vapor fields analyzed in MERRA2 and GEOS5. This innovation provides globally complete coverage, expanding IMERG's coverage beyond the 60°N-S latitude band provided by IR-based vectors, although we continue to mask out precipitation over snowy/icy surfaces as unreliable. A second innovation is the Quality Index (QI) data field. The half-hourly QI is taken as the approximate Kalman Filter correlation computed in the morphing calculation.

Huffman, George J.↗

Trusted Communication: Utilizing Speech Communication to Enhance Human-Machine Teaming Success

An area of increasing interest for the next generation of aircraft is autonomy and the integration of increasingly autonomous systems into the national airspace. Such an integration requires humans to work closely with autonomous systems, forming teams. Our hypothesis is that a team composed of both humans and autonomous systems will operate better than either entity alone. We have existing procedures for certifying pilots to operate in the national airspace and are currently working on methods for validating the function of autonomous systems, however we have no method in place for assessing the interaction of these two disparate systems. Communication is one avenue. This paper will examine the use of language as a metric for ascertaining human-machine teaming effectiveness. A proof-of-concept of the application of two communication-based analysis techniques, Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) and Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA), for the prediction of success in human/chatbot teaming was conducted. By running these analyses over data from the 2014 and 2015 Loebner Prize competitions of human/chatbot teaming, numerical scores were obtained that can be associated with scores provided by human judges during the competition. Correlating their LIWC and LSA data with the scores provided by the judges, and using linear regression over this correlation, formulae were obtained that predict the score of human/chatbot interaction. These formulae were tested over the 2013 Loebner Prize transcripts, determining that, though there was strong correlation between predicted and actual scores, the predictive success of this method was not strong. However, with specialized topic spaces and lexica, as well as larger data sets, the predictive power of these metrics will improve. Given the importance of providing metrics for human-machine system team success and given the promise shown by the communication-basedLIWCand LSAmethods, continuing research in this area is necessary. After examining the potential for using communication and spoken language as a metric for the success of human/autonomous system teaming, this paper then examines aspects inherent to communication systems that may contribute to unreliability and reduced trust. Modern natural language processing tools rely on deep learning algorithms to create language rules that produce accurate results, but these rules are uninterpretable. The resulting blackbox system lacks transparency necessary for full validation and complete trust. Additionally, speech-based interfaces pose other difficulties to developing coordinated teamwork between humans and autonomous systems. Human communication is infrequently limited to speech only, instead usually relying on a combination of verbal, gestural, and general body language communication. Reducing an analysis of team effectiveness to a study of spoken language alone is problematic as it leaves these other equally important forms of communication out. This paper will examine these problems and the general deficiencies in speech-based metrics for human-machine teaming.

E L Meszaros↗

Move to Talk, Talk to Move: Tightly Integrated Communication and Control for Coordinated Swarms of Small Spacecraft

The Move to Talk, Talk to Move: Tightly Integrated Communication and Control for Coordinated Swarms of Small Spacecraft project will build on existing research on collaborative autonomy of multi-agent systems and design techniques that will enable coordinated communication and control of spacecraft. The success of many space exploration and science missions hinges on real-time monitoring of time-varying and/or geographically distributed phenomena. This monitoring can be achieved using a swarm of small spacecraft, which collect data about the environment and share information within the swarm of spacecraft. Current space exploration missions typically issue commands to control each spacecraft individually from Earth, and the data gathered by each spacecraft is also transmitted to Earth separately via X-band communication over the Deep Space Network (DSN). This approach is expensive, slow, and unreliable. Many coordinated tasks amongst a swarm of autonomous agents (or, specifically, small spacecraft) rely on communication. Existing control, estimation, and decision algorithms often assume that mostly reliable communications are available; however, this is often not the case in actual environments and thus is a barrier to operating swarms of small spacecraft.

Qi Han↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-35322-DND

This talk discusses emerging methods that seek to fuse and integrate physics-based modeling with machine learning. With the recent rise of machine learning and artificial intelligence, there has been a huge surge in data-driven approaches to solve computational science and engineering problems. However, neglecting a priori knowledge of established physical laws and relying solely on data-driven methods can yield unreliable, less interpretable, and/or non-physical results, especially when data is sparse or predictions are required outside of the training data domain. This two part talk presents two distinct approaches for accelerating predictions with machine learning that are grounded and constrained by relevant physics and their application to problems at NASA.

Julian Cuevas Paniagua↗

Vibration-based health characterization of multiple IMUs in UAV applications

Inertial measurement units (IMUs) are vital in UAV navigation for vehicle attitude and position estimation, especially in the frequently-occurring case of temporary loss of GPS capabilities. Degradation in these units could yield inaccurate position estimates, resulting in incorrect input for vehicle control systems. A wide variety of these units exist to meet the needs of UAV operators, general aviation, and military vehicles. In recent decades, lightweight and inexpensive MEMS sensors have grown in popularity with respect to UAVs. Studies into the failure modes of MEMS devices suggest that vibration is one of the leading causes of MEMS degradation. MEMS sensors are generally encased in their own hermetic packaging, as their small size and sensitivity cause them to be particularly vulnerable to air damping and particulate contamination when exposed. Exposure to excessive vibration can cause cracking in this packaging as well as damage to connecting electronics, with recorded results that cause sensors to act outside of their specifications, potentially providing unreliable input to controllers. A prior study from the Politecnico di Torino looked into the degradation of MEMS IMUs, specifically the AXIS-AIS402, for aerospace and vibrating environments. In the study, the authors found that after exposing MEMS IMUs to simulated vibrations from working conditions of aerospace applications, the sensors showed increased noise and increased bias instability. At NASA Ames, several widely-used MEMS IMUs were selected for a new IMU degradation study, comparing accelerometer performance before and after exposure to similar levels of vibration simulating aerospace conditions. The IMUs were selected from the Pixhawk autopilot systems, hobby sUAS, or prior experimental studies at NASA. Additionally, the industrial grade VectorNav-100 IMU was selected as a ground truth reference point to which the performance of the test sensors can be compared. In the study, each sensor is exposed to functional levels of UAV vibration as replicated on a single-frequency vibratory table in the NASA Ames SHARP Laboratory, and each accelerometer is characterized for bias, drift, and noise characteristics both before and after vibratory exposure. The focus of this study is to monitor the health of the IMU sensors and determine if sensor degradation can be detected from output error and frequency spectrum analysis, rather than from microscopic examination of the sensors. In this case, sensor degradation and faulty data can be more easily detectable by non-experts hoping to use these sensors as an important piece of an integrated package. In addition, specific sensor degradation modes potentially leading to in-flight hazards could be identified, such as accelerated levels of drift and altered temperature response. The overall goal of this work is to increase levels of safety for future users of these sensors and to provide a clear analysis of sensor limitations currently lacking in most sensor specification documentation.

IMUs↗

Central Valley Water Resources: Improving California Groundwater Assessments using GRACE and InSAR Datasets for Water Resource Management

California’s Central Valley is one of the most productive agricultural areas in the world, producing approximately $20 billion in crops annually. The recent California droughts of 2007-2010 and 2012-2019 resulted in increased groundwater pumping in the Central Valley to adequately irrigate farmland. Overdrafting of the Central Valley aquifer results in groundwater depletion, land subsidence, and permanent loss of groundwater storage. In 2014, depletion of groundwater led the state of California to enact the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA),requiring critically overdrafted, high, and medium priority sub-basins to reach sustainable levels of groundwater pumping and recharge by 2042. SGMA allows local Groundwater Sustainability Agencies (GSAs) the authority to create Groundwater Sustainability Plans (GSPs) at the sub-basin level. To assist California’s Department of Water Resources (DWR), this project quantified groundwater change and land subsidence in Central Valley sub-basins with sparse or unreliable well and Geographic Positioning Systems (GPS) data. This was done using NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), GRACE FollowOn (GRACE-FO), and interferograms derived from Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR) and Advanced Land Observing Satellite 2 (ALOS-2)Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar 2 (PALSAR-2). Time series of the GRACE and InSAR data were compared with well and GPS data in data-dense sub-basins to determine the feasibility of these datasets for groundwater storage and subsidence monitoring. We found that GRACE and InSAR data are effective tools for determining groundwater change and land subsidence and can be used on their own to monitor sub-basins in the absence of well and GPS data

Water Resources↗

Central Valley Water Resources: Improving California Groundwater Assessments using GRACE and InSAR Datasets for Water Resource Management

California’s Central Valley is one of the most productive agricultural areas in the world, producing approximately $20 billion in crops annually. The recent California droughts of 2007-2010 and 2011-2017 resulted in increased groundwater pumping in the Central Valley to adequately irrigate farmland. Overdrafting of the Central Valley aquifer results in groundwater depletion, land subsidence, and permanent loss of groundwater storage. In 2014, depletion of groundwater led the state of California to enact the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), requiring critically overdrafted, high, and medium priority sub-basins to reach sustainable levels of groundwater pumping and recharge by 2042. SGMA allows local Groundwater Sustainability Agencies the authority to create Groundwater Sustainability Plans at the sub-basin level. To assist California’s Department of Water Resources, this project quantified groundwater change and land subsidence in Central Valley sub-basins with sparse or unreliable well and GPS data. This was done using NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO), and interferograms derived from Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR) and Advanced Land Observing Satellite 2 (ALOS-2) Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar 2 (PALSAR-2). Time series of the GRACE and InSAR data were compared with well and GPS data in data-dense sub-basins to determine the feasibility of these datasets for groundwater storage and subsidence monitoring. We found thatGRACE and InSAR data are effective tools for determining groundwater change and land subsidence and can be used on their own to monitor sub-basins in the absence of well and GPS data.

Water Resources↗

IMERG Multi-Satellite Products Across Two Decades

The Version 06 Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission products were completed over the last year, capping five years of development since the launch of the GPM Core Observatory, and covering the joint Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and GPM eras with consistently processed algorithms. The U.S. GPM team’s Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) merged precipitation product enforces a consistent intercalibration for all precipitation products computed from individual satellites with the TRMM and GPM Core Observatory sensors as the TRMM- and GPM-era calibrators, respectively, and incorporates monthly surface gauge data in the Final (research) product. Mid-latitude calibrations during the TRMM era necessarily are more approximate because TRMM only covered the latitude band 35°N-S, while GPM covers 65°N-S. Starting in V06, IMERG employs precipitation motion vectors (used to drive the quasi-Lagrangian interpolation, or “morphing”) that are computed by tracking the vertically integrated vapor as analyzed in MERRA2 and GEOS FP. This approach covers the entire globe, expanding coverage beyond the 60°N-S latitude band provided by IR-based vectors in previous versions, although we choose to mask out microwave-based precipitation over snowy/icy surfaces as unreliable. We will provide examples of performance for the V06 IMERG products, including comparison with the long-term record of GPCP and TMPA, showing higher values by about 8% in the latitude band 50°N-S over oceans; diurnal cycle, demonstrating improvement over previous versions; and daily precipitation PDFs for the entire record, showing a shift at the TRMM/GPM boundary, as well as interannual variations. These analyses have important implications for the utility of V06 IMERG data for long-record calculations. Finally, we will review the retirement of the predecessor TMPA multi-satellite dataset.

George J. Huffman↗

A New Vision and A More Rational Process Will Advance Space Life Support Through Better Projects

Many space life support assumptions are obviously mistaken but they are generally accepted because they mutually support each other and because they advance a mistaken futuristic vision of closed human ecosystems in space. Many projects have been mistakenly selected to increase life support system closure or reduce launch mass in order to implement this impractical vision. Project members rarely challenge their project’s assumptions and guiding vision. Systems engineering including cost, reliability, risk, and system trade-offs has been very strongly discouraged to prevent rational criticism of these dubious assumptions, the projects, and the ecosystem vision. A more realistic vision can define better near term life support goals and future aspirations that will improve mission support and increase public interest. Given more realistic goals, it will be possible to develop effective technical alternatives, use open rational project selection methods, conduct professional project management, and make swifter progress in the inevitable human advance into space. The current unworkable human space settlement scenario involves moon visits and permanent bases, zero gravity trips to Mars, Mars visits and bases, all leading to extensive human settlements on the moon and Mars. This is unrealistic because the moon and Mars have less than Earth normal gravity and high radiation that can seriously damage human health. A better alternative would use rotating space colonies that produce Earth gravity and are radiation shielded. The attractive fantasy of reproducing terrestrial ecology in space should be replaced by the idea of building a closed system based on advancing technology such as artificial photosynthesis. Past mistaken projects include growing plants for food to replicate terrestrial food sources, recovering small amounts of water from difficult to process waste to achieve high system closure, and using newly designed, lighter, but unreliable hardware to reduce launch mass. The political process supporting the false assumptions, projects, and vision has deliberately prevented the usual systems engineering and cost-benefit analysis. We are going to do much better.

Harry W. Jones↗

Analyzing the Subjectivity of Hole-Type Image Quality Indicators for Radiography

Hole-type penetrameters used as image quality indicators (IQIs) for radiography have an inherent degree of subjectivity to their interpretation. The 1T (one times the thickness of the penetrameter) hole is so small, it can be difficult to distinguish from noise. It is suspected that an operator’s knowledge of the true location of the 1T hole may subconsciously influence a false positive identification of the 1T hole when in fact it cannot be discerned. In the case of computed radiography (CR), the size of the phosphor particles may lead to a noise pattern with features on the scale of the 1T hole. Per NASA-STD-5009, the 1T hole must be detected in order to achieve adequate sensitivity. This is based on the historical understanding that this sensitivity will enable detection of the minimum detectable flaw sizes listed in the standard. It’s important to understand if 1T sensitivity is being achieved, and the associated risk if not. This study sought to determine the true detectability of 1T-sized holes in aluminum and Inconel by creating and inspecting a set of penetrameters with randomly placed holes. Enough holes and vacant zones were created to enable a full probability of detection study with 90% detectability, 95% confidence. Testing is ongoing, but preliminary results have shown poor detectability. The detection rate is slightly better for Inconel than aluminum, slightly better using a micro-focus vs. mini-focus tube, and definitively better for film than CR. One of the key questions of this study is whether historical requirements for film are applicable for CR, and these initial findings suggest they may not be. There is also a requirement in the NASA standard for the minimum contrast-to-noise ratio of the hole. The results have shown that this numerical threshold does not correlate well with visual detection. This raises questions about the true nature of detection, in an age of image processing vs. human judgement. As the results indicate that the detection of 1T holes is unreliable, the next challenge will be determining what sensitivity is really achieved, and what is needed.

Erin Lanigan↗