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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Evaluation of IMERG Satellite Precipitation Over the Land-Coast-Ocean Continuum – Part Ii: Quantification

To understand and manage water systems under a changing climate and meet an increasing demand for water, a quantitative understanding of precipitation is most important in coastal regions. The capabilities of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) V06B product for precipitation quantification are examined over three coastal regions of the United States: the West Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the East Coast, all of which are characterized by different topographies and precipitation climatologies. A novel uncertainty analysis of IMERG is proposed that considers environmental and physical parameters such as elevation and distance to the coastline. The IMERG performance is traced back to its components, i.e., passive microwave (PMW), infrared (IR), and morphing-based estimates. The analysis is performed using high-resolution, high-quality Ground Validation Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (GV-MRMS) rainfall estimates as ground reference at the native resolution of IMERG of 30 min and 0.1°. IMERG Final (IM-F) quantification performance heavily depends on the respective contribution of PMW, IR, and morph components. IM-F and its components overestimate the contribution of light rainfall (<1 mm h−1) and underestimate the contribution of high rainfall rates (>10 mm h−1) to the total rainfall volume. Strong regional dependencies are highlighted, especially over the West Coast, where the proximity of complex terrain to the coastline challenges precipitation estimates. Other major drivers are the distance from the coastline, elevation, and precipitation types, especially over the land and coast surface types, that highlight the impact of precipitation regimes.

Atmosphere↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Nasa Multiscale Analysis Tool: an Enabling Platform for Achieving Vision 2040

Vision 2040 is a community-driven consensus document, written in 2018, aimed at defining the potential 25-year future state required for performing integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems for future aerospace and aeronautical applications. Nine Vision Key Elements (KEs) were defined along with associated technical gaps. This paper will address current NASA GRC research efforts utilizing the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT). This paper will specifically focus on NASMAT’s ability to address gaps in three of the nine Vision 2040 KEs: 1) Models and Methods, 2) Multiscale Measurements and Characterization Tools and Methods, and 6) Data, Informatics, and Visualization. NASMAT is a versatile platform for performing computationally efficient multiscale analyses of heterogeneous materials. NASMAT offers the user flexibility to define an arbitrary number of length scales (levels) where a variety of micromechanics theories can be implemented at each level. Micromechanics theories can be selected to balance accuracy and computational efficiency and range from analytical (Mori-Tanaka) to several semi-analytical (method of cells) formulations. NASMAT can also be coupled with external software and used to perform multiscale analyses of more complex structures. The paper will include a recent application of NASMAT to model a complex, three-dimensional woven composite, with a particular emphasis placed on multiscale measurements utilized to enhance the quality of the multiscale analysis. Since typical NASMAT analyses can be completed in on the order of seconds to minutes, a second example will demonstrate NASMAT’s ability to generate large quantities of data useful for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, or machine learning applications. Current progress on developing multiscale data visualization tools will also be addressed along with the challenges associated with and proposed solutions for sifting through large amounts of data. These examples will demonstrate that NASMAT is an enabling platform for achieving the goals in Vision 2040.

Vision 2040↗
NASA NTRS2023

An Enabling Platform for Achieving Multiscale Multiphysics Analysis of Multiphase Materials

This paper will address current NASA GRC research efforts utilizing the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) which address technical gaps in three of the Vision 2040 key discipline areas. NASMAT is a versatile platform for performing computationally efficient multiscale analyses of heterogeneous materials and is available free through the NASA software catalog. It offers the user flexibility to define an arbitrary number of length scales (levels) where a variety of micromechanics theories can be implemented at each level. Micromechanics theories can be selected to balance accuracy and computational efficiency and range from analytical (Mori-Tanaka) to several semi-analytical (method of cells) formulations. The resulting anisotropic, evolving nonlinear, thermomechanical constitutive model can also be coupled with external software and used to perform multiscale analyses of more complex structures. A recent application to model a complex, three-dimensional woven composite, with a particular emphasis placed on multiscale measurements utilized to enhance the quality of the multiscale analysis will be discussed. Since typical NASMAT analyses can be completed on the order of seconds to minutes, a second example will demonstrate the ability to generate large quantities of data useful for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, or machine learning applications. Current progress on implementing NASMAT within a multiscale digital thread/digital twin framework will also be addressed. These examples will demonstrate that NASMAT is an enabling platform for achieving the goals in Vision 2040.

Multiscale↗
NASA NTRS2023

Turbulence Model Validation Through Joint Experimental /Computational Studies of Separated Flow Over A Three-Dimensional Tapered Bump: Part I - Experimental Investigation

The results of a three-year experimental campaign aimed at comprehensively documenting the separated flow over a three-dimensional bump are presented with the purpose of generating a benchmark experimental database useful in validating computational fluid dynamics (CFD) flow simulations. The bump model geometry was designed to provide well-defined and repeatable smooth-body flow separation conditions that were suitable for both experiments and simulations. The bump had a Gaussian streamwise profile with a constant height equal to 8.5% of its width over the central 60% of the test section width. The remaining 40% were outboard spanwise portions that gradually taper to zero using an error function profile to minimize side-wall boundary layer effects. The model was immersed in a turbulent boundary layer that was developed on a suspended flat plate in the Notre Dame Mach 0.6 Wind Tunnel. In order to document the effect of the incoming boundary layer thickness on the flow separation, the bump model could be located at two streamwise positions. The mean velocity and turbulence intensity of the wind tunnel freestream flow field and approaching turbulent boundary layer were fully documented. The measurements of the flow separation region included surface visualization, wall shear stress using oil-film interferometry, mean and dynamic surface pressure, and planar and stereoscopic particle image velocimetry. The experiments were conducted over a range of Mach numbers from 0.05 to 0.2 corresponding to a range of Reynolds numbers based on the test section spanwise dimension (0.914m) of 1.0 × 10 6 ≤ Re L = U ∞ L/ν ≤ 4.0 × 10 6 . The bulk of the results are presented for the higher Mach number conditions of 0.1 and 0.2 with Re L = 2.0 × 10 6 and 4.0 × 10 6 , respectively. Extensive uncertainty analysis of the data was performed. The data is archived in the NASA Langley Turbulence Modeling Resource website at https://turbmodels.larc.nasa.gov/Other_exp_Data/speedbump_sep_exp.html. In addition to the experiments, a computational effort was made in parallel by the CFD group at Boeing Research & Technology highlighting the usefulness of the data set, which is outlined in the accompanying CFD report.

Flow separation↗
NASA NTRS2024

Assessment of Dust Size Retrievals Based on AERONET: A Case Study of Radiative Closure From Visible-Near-Infrared to Thermal Infrared

Super-coarse dust particles (diameters >10 μm) are evidenced to be more abundant in the atmosphere than model estimates and contribute significantly to the dust climate impacts. Since super-coarse dust accounts for less dust extinction in the visible-to-near-infrared (VIS-NIR) than in the thermal infrared (TIR) spectral regime, they are suspected to be underestimated by remote sensing instruments operates only in VIS-NIR, including Aerosol Robotic Networks (AERONET), a widely used data set for dust model validation. In this study, we perform a radiative closure assessment using the AERONET-retrieved size distribution in comparison with the collocated Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) TIR observations with comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The consistently warm bias in the comparisons suggests a potential underestimation of super-coarse dust in the AERONET retrievals due to the limited VIS-NIR sensitivity. An extra super-coarse mode included in the AERONET-retrieved size distribution helps improve the TIR closure without deteriorating the retrieval accuracy in the VIS-NIR.

thermal infrared (TIR)↗
NASA NTRS2024

An Extensible Perturbed Parameter Ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model Version 6

This paper documents the methodology and preliminary results from a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (PPE) technique, where multiple parameters are varied simultaneously and the parameter values are determined with Latin hypercube sampling. This is done with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We apply the PPE method to CESM2-CAM6 to understand climate sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameters. The initial simulations vary 45 parameters in the microphysics, convection, turbulence and aerosol schemes with 263 ensemble members. These atmospheric parameters are typically the most uncertain in many climate models. Control simulations are analyzed and targeted simulations to understand climate forcing due to aerosols and fast climate feedbacks. The use of various emulators is explored in the multi- dimensional space mapping input parameters to output metrics. Parameter impacts on various model outputs, such as radiation, cloud and aerosol properties are evaluated. Machine learning is also used to probe optimal parameter values against observations. Our findings show that using PPE is a valuable tool for climate uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, by varying many parameters simultaneously, we find that many different combinations of parameter values can produce results consistent with observations, and thus careful analysis of tuning is important. The CESM2-CAM6 PPE is publicly available, and extensible to other configurations to address questions of other model processes in the atmosphere and other model components (e.g. coupling to the land surface).

Machine learning↗
NASA NTRS2026

Recommended Practices in Laser-Induced Fluorescence (LIF) Diagnostics for Electric Propulsion

Laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) spectroscopy uses Doppler-shifted laser photons to excite a bound electron transition in an atom or ion, with subsequent fluorescence emission detected in order to measure the local velocity distribution function (VDF) and/or particle density. Due to its non-invasive nature, high spatial resolution, and acceptable difficulty of implementation, LIF has become a favored diagnostic for electric propulsion (EP) plasmas, particularly in the study of Hall thrusters. This paper presents recommended best practices for LIF measurements in electric thrusters, drawn from over three decades of implementation heritage in the EP community. Focusing on both single-photon LIF (typically used to measure VDFs) and two-photon LIF (TALIF, typically used to determine densities), the paper covers selection of atomic transitions to target, experimental setups, and interpretation of data. A number of special topics and advanced applications are discussed, including uncertainty analysis, techniques for high-speed measurements, and applications to a variety of propellants.

plasma plume↗
NASA NTRS2026

Spatially Refined Satellite Gravimetry Captures Human Signatures in Global Terrestrial Water Storage Trends

Human activities have directly altered the water cycle through water management, aquifer pumping, agricultural irrigation, and land use change. Although satellite gravimetry has transformed global hydrological research, its coarse resolution limits attribution of freshwater change to human activities at many management-relevant scales. Here we assessed global terrestrial water storage (TWS) trends from April 2002 to November 2025 using “stacked” regression of Level-1B intersatellite ranging data, which leverages temporal information and variability to dramatically improve effective spatial resolution relative to standard approaches. We combined this refined product with rigorous uncertainty analysis, autocorrelation-robust geostatistical methods, and literature assessment to evaluate TWS trend associations with land and water use, climate variability, and glacial mass loss. We identified TWS trend hotspots exhibiting significant spatial associations with anthropogenic 40 drivers, including groundwater and surface-water irrigation, rainfed agriculture, deforestation, and reservoir impoundment. Across these regions, cumulative TWS losses (3,122 Gt) substantially exceeded gains (2,432 Gt). Compared with traditional regression of monthly mascons, our approach yielded regional trend magnitudes that are on average 33% larger, revealing that global freshwater depletion, particularly from groundwater pumping, is considerably more acute than previously estimated. Multivariate regression models show that humans account for a significant share of the spatial variability in TWS trends on every non-polar continent except Australia. We detected localized TWS gains linked to rainfed agriculture, surface water irrigation, and reservoir filling that were unresolved in earlier gravimetric studies. The methodology provides a foundation for future gravity missions to independently track decadal freshwater change with unprecedented spatial fidelity.

groundwater↗
NASA NTRS2008

Tolerance and UQ4SIM: Nimble Uncertainty Documentation and Analysis Software

Ultimately, scientific numerical models need quantified output uncertainties so that modeling can evolve to better match reality. Documenting model input uncertainties and variabilities is a necessary first step toward that goal. Without known input parameter uncertainties, model sensitivities are all one can determine, and without code verification, output uncertainties are simply not reliable. The basic premise of uncertainty markup is to craft a tolerance and tagging mini-language that offers a natural, unobtrusive presentation and does not depend on parsing each type of input file format. Each file is marked up with tolerances and optionally, associated tags that serve to label the parameters and their uncertainties. The evolution of such a language, often called a Domain Specific Language or DSL, is given in [1], but in final form it parallels tolerances specified on an engineering drawing, e.g., 1 +/- 0.5, 5 +/- 10%, 2 +/- 10 where % signifies percent and o signifies order of magnitude. Tags, necessary for error propagation, can be added by placing a quotation-mark-delimited tag after the tolerance, e.g., 0.7 +/- 20% 'T_effective'. In addition, tolerances might have different underlying distributions, e.g., Uniform, Normal, or Triangular, or the tolerances may merely be intervals due to lack of knowledge (uncertainty). Finally, to address pragmatic considerations such as older models that require specific number-field formats, C-style format specifiers can be appended to the tolerance like so, 1.35 +/- 10U_3.2f. As an example of use, consider figure 1, where a chemical reaction input file is has been marked up to include tolerances and tags per table 1. Not only does the technique provide a natural method of specifying tolerances, but it also servers as in situ documentation of model uncertainties. This tolerance language comes with a utility to strip the tolerances (and tags), to provide a path to the nominal model parameter file. And, as shown in [1], having the ability to quickly mark and identify model parameter uncertainties facilitates error propagation, which in turn yield output uncertainties.

Kleb, Bil↗
NASA NTRS1984

Analysis of the uncertainties in velocity measurements with triple hot-wire probes

A detailed computerized sensitivity analysis of the triple hot-wire equations has been performed in order to delineate the uncertainties associated with measurements of the velocity components. Absolute and relative uncertainties for the instantaneous hot-wire outputs are calculated as functions of roll and pitch angles, based on a constant probability combination of the uncertainties in the inputs. From the results, it is concluded that the small inherent difficulties associated with the triple hot-wire data do not reflect artifacts introduced by the data processing. Fixed errors present in the V and W channels of the output are due to the nonzero measuring volume of the triple wire probe, and are entirely predictable.

Frota, M. N.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Multi-Sensor Aerosol Products Sampling System (MAPSS) for Integrated Analysis of Satellite Retrieval Uncertainties

Among the known atmospheric constituents, aerosols represent the greatest uncertainty in climate research. Although satellite-based aerosol retrieval has practically become routine, especially during the last decade, there is often disagreement between similar aerosol parameters retrieved from different sensors, leaving users confused as to which sensors to trust for answering important science questions about the distribution, properties, and impacts of aerosols. As long as there is no consensus and the inconsistencies are not well characterized and understood ', there will be no way of developing reliable climate data records from satellite aerosol measurements. Fortunately, the most globally representative well-calibrated ground-based aerosol measurements corresponding to the satellite-retrieved products are available from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). To adequately utilize the advantages offered by this vital resource,., an online Multi-sensor Aerosol Products Sampling System (MAPSS) was recently developed. The aim of MAPSS is to facilitate detailed comparative analysis of satellite aerosol measurements from different sensors (Terra-MODIS, Aqua-MODIS, Terra-MISR, Aura-OMI, Parasol-POLDER, and Calipso-CALIOP) based on the collocation of these data products over AERONET stations. In this presentation, we will describe the strategy of the MAPSS system, its potential advantages for the aerosol community, and the preliminary results of an integrated comparative uncertainty analysis of aerosol products from multiple satellite sensors.

Ichoku, Charles↗
NASA NTRS2010

Application of Ensemble Detection and Analysis to Modeling Uncertainty in Non Stationary Process

Characterization of non stationary and nonlinear processes is a challenge in many engineering and scientific disciplines. Climate change modeling and projection, retrieving information from Doppler measurements of hydrometeors, and modeling calibration architectures and algorithms in microwave radiometers are example applications that can benefit from improvements in the modeling and analysis of non stationary processes. Analyses of measured signals have traditionally been limited to a single measurement series. Ensemble Detection is a technique whereby mixing calibrated noise produces an ensemble measurement set. The collection of ensemble data sets enables new methods for analyzing random signals and offers powerful new approaches to studying and analyzing non stationary processes. Derived information contained in the dynamic stochastic moments of a process will enable many novel applications.

Racette, Paul↗
NASA NTRS1987

Probabilistic structural analysis to quantify uncertainties associated with turbopump blades

A probabilistic study of turbopump blades has been in progress at NASA Lewis Research Center for over the last two years. The objectives of this study are to evaluate the effects of uncertainties in geometry and material properties on the structural response of the turbopump blades to evaluate the tolerance limits on the design. A methodology based on probabilistic approach has been developed to quantify the effects of the random uncertainties. The results of this study indicate that only the variations in geometry have significant effects.

Nagpal, Vinod K.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Probabilistic structural analysis to quantify uncertainties associated with turbopump blades

A probabilistic study of turbopump blades has been in progress at NASA Lewis Research Center for over the last two years. The objectives of this study are to evaluate the effects of uncertainties in geometry and material properties on the structural response of the turbopump blades to evaluate the tolerance limits on the design. A methodology based on probabilistic approach was developed to quantify the effects of the random uncertainties. The results indicate that only the variations in geometry have significant effects.

Nagpal, Vinod K.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Statistics Analysis of the Uncertainties in Cloud Optical Depth Retrievals Caused by Three-Dimensional Radiative Effects

This paper presents a simple approach to estimate the uncertainties that arise in satellite retrievals of cloud optical depth when the retrievals use one-dimensional radiative transfer theory for heterogeneous clouds that have variations in all three dimensions. For the first time, preliminary error bounds are set to estimate the uncertainty of cloud optical depth retrievals. These estimates can help us better understand the nature of uncertainties that three-dimensional effects can introduce into retrievals of this important product of the MODIS instrument. The probability distribution of resulting retrieval errors is examined through theoretical simulations of shortwave cloud reflection for a wide variety of cloud fields. The results are used to illustrate how retrieval uncertainties change with observable and known parameters, such as solar elevation or cloud brightness. Furthermore, the results indicate that a tendency observed in an earlier study, clouds appearing thicker for oblique sun, is indeed caused by three-dimensional radiative effects.

Varnai, Tamas↗
NASA NTRS2016

Uncertainty Reduction using Bayesian Inference and Sensitivity Analysis: A Sequential Approach to the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge

This paper presents a computational framework for uncertainty characterization and propagation, and sensitivity analysis under the presence of aleatory and epistemic un- certainty, and develops a rigorous methodology for efficient refinement of epistemic un- certainty by identifying important epistemic variables that significantly affect the overall performance of an engineering system. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (NASA-LUQC) problem that deals with uncertainty analysis of a generic transport model (GTM). First, Bayesian inference is used to infer subsystem-level epistemic quantities using the subsystem-level model and corresponding data. Second, tools of variance-based global sensitivity analysis are used to identify four important epistemic variables (this limitation specified in the NASA-LUQC is reflective of practical engineering situations where not all epistemic variables can be refined due to time/budget constraints) that significantly affect system-level performance. The most significant contribution of this paper is the development of the sequential refine- ment methodology, where epistemic variables for refinement are not identified all-at-once. Instead, only one variable is first identified, and then, Bayesian inference and global sensi- tivity calculations are repeated to identify the next important variable. This procedure is continued until all 4 variables are identified and the refinement in the system-level perfor- mance is computed. The advantages of the proposed sequential refinement methodology over the all-at-once uncertainty refinement approach are explained, and then applied to the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge problem.

Uncertainty↗