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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Optimization of Test Plans for Advanced Exploration Systems Reliability and Supportability

Future crewed exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will operate farther from Earth and be logistically isolated for longer than any previous human spaceflight mission. Under these conditions, supportability and reliability willbestronger drivers of mission mass and risk than they have been in the past. Items with high failure rates, or uncertain failure rates, can result in high spares mass requirements and/or high risk on deep space missions. Testing is a critical element of system development which provides the opportunity to identify and resolve design issues, defects, or other failure modes before they cause problems during a mission. Reliability growth programs can reduce failure rates by identifying and remove failure modes via design changes, and long-duration life testing can provide valuable data to reduce failure rate estimate uncertainty and verify (to some level of confidence) that components are as reliable as expected. Testing activities take time and resources, however, and must be incorporated into program plans in order to be fully effective. This paper presents an integrated reliability test plan analysis and optimization methodology, which has been used to inform Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Life Support Systems (LSS) ground test planning for future missions. The methodology determines the optimal number of test units to purchase and allocation of test time –split between reliability growth and uncertainty reduction testing –across a given set of items in order to minimize spares mass for a given mission under constraints on total test cost and schedule. Model outputs also include expected spares mass after testing and the expected number of modifications or refurbishments during testing, both of which can inform program planning. Discussion of the model, conclusions, and future work are also presented.

Testing↗
NASA NTRS2015

Towards Real-Time, On-Board, Hardware-Supported Sensor and Software Health Management for Unmanned Aerial Systems

For unmanned aerial systems (UAS) to be successfully deployed and integrated within the national airspace, it is imperative that they possess the capability to effectively complete their missions without compromising the safety of other aircraft, as well as persons and property on the ground. This necessity creates a natural requirement for UAS that can respond to uncertain environmental conditions and emergent failures in real-time, with robustness and resilience close enough to those of manned systems. We introduce a system that meets this requirement with the design of a real-time onboard system health management (SHM) capability to continuously monitor sensors, software, and hardware components. This system can detect and diagnose failures and violations of safety or performance rules during the flight of a UAS. Our approach to SHM is three-pronged, providing: (1) real-time monitoring of sensor and software signals; (2) signal analysis, preprocessing, and advanced on-the-fly temporal and Bayesian probabilistic fault diagnosis; and (3) an unobtrusive, lightweight, read-only, low-power realization using Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) that avoids overburdening limited computing resources or costly re-certification of flight software. We call this approach rt-R2U2, a name derived from its requirements. Our implementation provides a novel approach of combining modular building blocks, integrating responsive runtime monitoring of temporal logic system safety requirements with model-based diagnosis and Bayesian network-based probabilistic analysis. We demonstrate this approach using actual flight data from the NASA Swift UAS.

Unmanned Aerial System↗
NASA NTRS1991

Structural dynamics: Probabilistic structural analysis methods. Program overview

A brief description is provided of the fundamental aspects of a quantification process. Progress since the last structural durability conference in 1989 is summarized. The methodology to date and that to be developed during the life of the program is presented. The uncertain factors are presented. The approach is outlined that is required to achieve component and/or system certification in the shortest possible time for affordable reliability risk. Two new elements appear in a block diagram: (1) uncertainties in human factor, and (2) uncertainties in the computer code. Research to quantify the uncertainties in the human factor was initiated and is discussed.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Terminal Tracking for the Lucy Trojan Asteroid Mission

The most recent NASA Discovery class mission to fly is the Lucy mission to the Trojan Asteroids of Jupiter. Launched in October of 2021, Lucy’s destination will be the unexplored Jupiter Trojan Asteroids that orbit the Sun at the stable L4 and L5 points ahead of, and behind Jupiter. This 12-yearmission will perform close flybys of 1 main belt asteroid, Donaldjohanson, and 7 Trojans asteroids: Eurybates and its satellite Queta, Polymele, Leucus, Orus, and the near equal mass Trojan binary pair, Patroclus andMenoetius. The large distance from earth for the encounters, the high relative velocities and sun incidence angles on approach,and the limited number of Earth observations of the Trojans,make the delivery knowledge highly uncertain. To reduce the delivery uncertainties and maximize science return, Lucy employs a Terminal Tracking System consisting of optical imaging, centroiding and state estimation of the Trojan asteroids on approach and through close approach. This paper presents the Lucy Terminal Tracking System implementation, a brief overview of the mission and the GN&C subsystem.

Philip G Good↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Extreme-Value Approach to Anomaly Vulnerability Identification

The objective of this paper is to present a method for importance analysis in parametric probabilistic modeling where the result of interest is the identification of potential engineering vulnerabilities associated with postulated anomalies in system behavior. In the context of Accident Precursor Analysis (APA), under which this method has been developed, these vulnerabilities, designated as anomaly vulnerabilities, are conditions that produce high risk in the presence of anomalous system behavior. The method defines a parameter-specific Parameter Vulnerability Importance measure (PVI), which identifies anomaly risk-model parameter values that indicate the potential presence of anomaly vulnerabilities, and allows them to be prioritized for further investigation. This entails analyzing each uncertain risk-model parameter over its credible range of values to determine where it produces the maximum risk. A parameter that produces high system risk for a particular range of values suggests that the system is vulnerable to the modeled anomalous conditions, if indeed the true parameter value lies in that range. Thus, PVI analysis provides a means of identifying and prioritizing anomaly-related engineering issues that at the very least warrant improved understanding to reduce uncertainty, such that true vulnerabilities may be identified and proper corrective actions taken.

Everett, Chris↗
NASA NTRS1993

DESSY: Making a real-time expert system robust and useful

As the complexity and expected life-span of modern space systems continue to increase, the need for real-time data monitoring and failure analysis becomes more critical to their successful operation. The DEcision Support SYstem (DESSY) is a joint effort by the Intelligent Systems Branch/ER2 and the Remote Manipulator System (RMS) Section/DF44 to develop an expert system for the monitoring of the Payload Deployment and Retrieval System (PDRS). DESSY users, the RMS flight controllers, are provided with user interface enhancements and automated monitoring of system state (physical orientation) and status (operational health). Currently, a DESSY prototype for the Manipulator Positioning Mechanism (MPM) and Manipulator Retention Latches (MRL) of the PDRS has been developed and successfully demonstrated during the STS-49 and STS-46 missions. Expert systems for monitoring real-time operations must not only accurately represent domain knowledge, but also address the challenges of using unfiltered real-time data as input. This paper describes the methods and design strategies developed to overcome problems with real-time data in the NASA Mission Control Center. Types of data problems addressed are as follows: (1) loss of data; (2) erratic data; and (3) data lags and irregularities during state transition. Methods used to handle data problems include rule disabling for ignoring data when data quality is uncertain, context-sensitive bounded pattern recognition for minimizing incorrect conclusions based on bad data, and graceful recovery through system correction when reliable data returns. This combination of methods with an object-based modular DESSY design assures a robust program capable of lengthy periods of uninterrupted use in operations.

Land, Sherry A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Impact of Model Uncertainty on Spatial Compensation in Active Structural Acoustic Control

Turbulent boundary layer (TBL) noise is considered a primary factor in the interior noise experienced by passengers aboard commercial airliners. There have been numerous investigations of interior noise control devoted to aircraft panels; however, practical realization is a challenge since the physical boundary conditions are uncertain at best. In most prior studies, pinned or clamped boundary conditions have been assumed; however, realistic panels likely display a range of varying boundary conditions between these two limits. Uncertainty in boundary conditions is a challenge for control system designers, both in terms of the compensator implemented and the location of actuators and sensors required to achieve the desired control. The impact of model uncertainties, uncertain boundary conditions in particular, on the selection of actuator and sensor locations for structural acoustic control are considered herein. Results from this research effort indicate that it is possible to optimize the design of actuator and sensor location and aperture, which minimizes the impact of boundary conditions on the desired structural acoustic control.

Cabell, Randolph H.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Our present state of ignorance of the outer planets and their satellites.

Although the outer solar system contains the bulk of the angular momentum of the system and a huge fraction of the total planetary mass, very little is actually known about it. Massive Jupiter, with its low mean density and huge red spot (possibly a Taylor column), shows a complex rotational pattern as a result of three rotating systems, each having a different period. Atmospheric scattering of the reflected solar radiation makes spectral interpretation uncertain. Imprecisions in the Bond albedo cause discrepancies between actual and predicted solar energy absorbed. Saturn is similar to Jupiter in massiveness, low density, atmospheric aerosols, and albedo. Its rings are believed to be largely water ice. To date, no evidence of radiation belts, analogous to Jupiter's, exists for Saturn, Uranus, or Neptune. Methane and hydrogen have been detected in the atmospheres of all these planets, but the mole fraction of hydrogen is lower in the atmospheres of Uranus and Neptune. Uranus' 98 degree inclination will provide basis for study of its atmospheric circulation. Our knowledge of Pluto is restricted to the sparsest physical data.

Rea, D. G.↗
NASA NTRS1987

The Arp Ring: Galactic or extragalactic?

The Arp Ring is a faint, loop-like structure around the northern end of M81 which becomes apparent only on deep optical photographs of the galaxy. The nature of the Ring and its proximity to M81 are uncertain. Is it simply foreground structure, part of this galaxy, or is it within the M81 system? Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) maps of the region show a far-infrared counterpart of the Ring. The infrared data are compared with previous optical and radio observations to try to ascertain its physical nature. The poor correlation found between the common infrared/optical structure and the distribution of extragalactic neutral hydrogen, and the fact that its infrared properties are indistinguishable from those of nearby galactic cirrus, imply that the Arp Ring is simply a ring structure in the galactic cirrus.

Abolins, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Laboratory Simulation of the Effect of Rocket Thrust on a Precessing Space Vehicle

Ground tests of solid propellant rocket motors have shown that metal-containing propellants produce various amounts of slag (primarily aluminum oxide) which is trapped in the motor case, causing a loss of specific impulse. Although not yet definitely established, the presence of a liquid pool of slag also may contribute to nutational instabilities that have been observed with certain spin-stabilized, upper-stage vehicles. Because of the rocket's axial acceleration, absent in the ground tests, estimates of in-flight slag mass have been very uncertain. Yet such estimates are needed to determine the magnitude of the control authority of the systems required for eliminating the instability. A test rig with an eccentrically mounted hemispherical bowl was designed and built which incorporates a follower force that properly aligns the thrust vector along the axis of spin. A program that computes the motion of a point mass in the spinning and precessing bowl was written. Using various RPMs, friction factors, and initial starting conditions, plots were generated showing the trace of the point mass around the inside of the fuel tank. The apparatus will incorporate future design features such as a variable nutation angle and a film height measuring instrument. Data obtained on the nutational instability characteristics will be used to determine order of magnitude estimates of control authority needed to minimize the sloshing effect.

Alvarez, Oscar↗
NASA NTRS1990

Laboratory simulation of the rocket motor thrust as a follower force

Ground tests of solid propellant rocket motors have shown that metal-containing propellants produce various amounts of slag (primarily aluminum oxide), which is trapped in the motor case causing a loss of specific impulse. Although not yet definitely established, the presence of a liquid pool of slag also may contribute to nutational instabilities that have been observed with certain spin-stabilized, upper-stage vehicles. Because of the rocket's axial acceleration - absent in the ground tests - estimates of in-flight slag mass have been very uncertain. Yet such estimates are needed to determine the magnitude of the control authority of the systems required for eliminating the instability. A test rig with an eccentrically mounted hemispherical bowl was designed and built that incorporates a follower force that properly aligns the thrust vector along the axis of spin. A program that computes the motion of a point mass in the spinning and precessing bowl was written. Using various rpm, friction factors, and initial starting conditions, plots were generated showing the trace of the point mass around the inside of the fuel tank. The apparatus will be used extensively during the 1990 to 1991 academic year and incorporate future design features such as a variable nutation angle and a film height measuring instrument. Data obtained on the nutational instability characteristics will be used to determine order-of-magnitude estimates of control authority needed to minimize the sloshing effect.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1992

NASA Instep/mdmsc Jitter Suppression Experiment (JITTER)

The objectives are the following: (1) to develop and demonstrate in-space performance of both passive and active damping systems for suppression of micro-amplitude vibration on an actual application structure and operate despite uncertain dynamics and uncertain disturbance characteristics; and (2) to correlate ground and in-space performance - the performance metric is vibration attenuation. The goals are to achieve vibration suppression equivalent to 5 percent passive damping in selected models and 15 percent active damping in selected modes. Various aspects of this experiment are presented in viewgraph form.

White, Edward V.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Toward a Coherent Detailed Evaluation of Aerosol Data Products from Multiple Satellite Sensors

Atmospheric aerosols represent one of the greatest uncertainties in climate research. Although satellite-based aerosol retrieval has practically become routine, especially during the last decade, there is often disagreement between similar aerosol parameters retrieved from different sensors, leaving users confused as to which sensors to trust for answering important science questions about the distribution, properties, and impacts of aerosols. As long as there is no consensus and the inconsistencies are not well characterized and understood, there will be no way of developing reliable climate data records from satellite aerosol measurements. Fortunately, the most globally representative well-calibrated ground-based aerosol measurements corresponding to the satellite-retrieved products are available from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). To adequately utilize the advantages offered by this vital resource, an online Multi-sensor Aerosol Products Sampling System (MAPSS) was recently developed. The aim of MAPSS is to facilitate detailed comparative analysis of satellite aerosol measurements from different sensors (Terra-MODIS, Aqua-MODIS, TerraMISR, Aura-OMI, Parasol-POLDER, and Calipso-CALIOP) based on the collocation of these data products over AERONET stations. In this presentation, we will describe the strategy of the MA~SS system, its potential advantages for the aerosol community, and the preliminary results of an integrated comparative uncertainly analysis of aerosol products from multiple satellite sensors.

Ichoku, Charles↗
NASA NTRS2011

Coherent Evaluation of Aerosol Data Products from Multiple Satellite Sensors

Aerosol retrieval from satellite has practically become routine, especially during the last decade. However, there is often disagreement between similar aerosol parameters retrieved from different sensors, thereby leaving users confused as to which sensors to trust for answering important science questions about the distribution, properties, and impacts of aerosols. As long as there is no consensus, and the inconsistencies are not well characterized and understood, there will be no way of developing reliable model inputs and climate data records from satellite aerosol measurements. Fortunately, the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) is providing well-calibrated globally representative ground-based aerosol measurements corresponding to the satellite-retrieved products. Through a recently developed web-based Multi-sensor Aerosol Products Sampling System (MAPSS), we are utilizing the advantages offered by collocated AERONET and satellite products to characterize and evaluate aerosol retrieval from multiple sensors. Indeed, MAPSS and its companion statistical tool AeroStat are facilitating detailed comparative uncertainty analysis of satellite aerosol measurements from Terra-MODIS, Aqua-MODIS, Terra-MISR, Aura-OMI, Parasol-POLDER, and Calipso-CALIOP. In this presentation, we will describe the strategy of the MAPSS system, its potential advantages for the aerosol community, and the preliminary results of an integrated comparative uncertainly analysis of aerosol products from multiple satellite sensors.

Ichoku, Charles↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Time Safety Assessment & Risk Prediction for Unmanned Aerial Systems

One of the critical challenges in emerging autonomous systems is timely mitigation of hazards encountered during operation which may not be known or accounted for at the time of design. Efficient execution of unmanned systems therefore demands a paradigm shift from scheduled periodic maintenance to predictive risk analysis that includes condition-based-monitoring, real-time reliability assessment and hazard mitigation. Particularly, the state-of-health parameters needs to be computed at the component level, unit level as well as the integrated system level. While in the former two levels, the physics of health propagation may be based on underlying electro-mechanical properties, system level prognostics often relies on data-driven models. Further, uncertainty from model, measurements and input sources should be accurately quantified to generate meaningful prediction results that can be fed into reliable decision making processes. Finally, the expected risk and time to failure has to be computed based on the current state-of-health of the overall system. This talk presents a conceptual design of such an in-time safety assurance approach for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) operating at low altitudes near and over populated areas. Typical in-flight hazard incidents include unplanned detour, proximity to obstacles, mid-flight component faults, limited battery life and poor quality of GPS measurements. Safety assessment therefore comprises trajectory generation and re-plan, battery RUL computation, distributed fault diagnostics and uncertainty management of predicted trajectory based on GPS measurement noise. The entire monitoring framework will be demonstrated on simulated as well as real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center. This tutorial will therefore guide the audience through a step-by-step tracking of an autonomous system with focus on in-time risk prediction in the presence of unforeseen hazards and uncertain environment.

diagnostics↗
NASA NTRS2022

Reliability-Aware Requirements Development for Autonomy Software

Autonomy is the ability of a system to make decisions and take actions in the presence of uncertainty. Validating autonomy, therefore, is a matter of validating that the system makes intelligent decisions even when there might be discrepancies between the observed and the expected state of the world as well as when the possible outcome of each of the possible courses of action is uncertain. During the requirements engineering phase, the functions, including those that are required to be autonomous and their expected behavior are specified. However, in the case of autonomous software system, it is challenging to specify all possible scenarios that the software may encounter. Additionally, since autonomous behaviors cannot always be fully predetermined, it is difficult to reason about their completeness and correctness. While these challenges are also faced with non-autonomous system, they are more prevalent for autonomous system due to their complexity and emergent behavior. Our efforts have been three-fold. On one hand, we have developed a goal-based method for requirements decomposition. We have embedded this approach into a higher-level systems engineering framework and then developed methods for decision and reliability analysis within this framework. And finally, we use simulation analysis to validate the more theoretical methods and provide a feedback mechanism. The decision analysis approach (DA) helps in identifying and mitigating the run-time risks, by bringing to the forefront the uncertainties, decisions, interactions, and other factors that may cause autonomous software to make erroneous decisions. The DA framework is used to quantify, for each decision that the software can make, failure risk due to uncertainties. The information about the key decisions and circumstances that can cause autonomous system to make incorrect decisions are used to generate test scenarios to be run in a simulator to ensure that the system can handle error-prone circumstances. The results or outcomes from decisions, based on the simulated scenarios, can then be leveraged to further gain insight of the assured system. We combine a goal-based approach with simulation analysis to facilitate requirements development for autonomous systems and further provide a method for run-time systems level reliability considerations during the autonomous software development process. The DA and the reliability analysis methods provide a formalism for the consideration of uncertainty in the run time decision-making process for autonomous software. This formalism considers the uncertainty involved in the outcome of different courses of action, in terms of performance and cost, as well as a method to consider the system level reliability implications. System level reliability considerations for autonomous software decision making contribute to the satisfaction of the system level goals over the lifecycle of a given mission. We demonstrate our approach using a hypothetical rover path planning example. The requirements for our rover simulator are based on existing literature about Mars rovers and lessons learned from real world observations at JPL. The specifics of the autonomy design for the Mars rovers, that have not been previously cleared for external release, are not used for our demonstrations.

Lindvall, Mikael↗
NASA NTRS1996

Reliability, Risk and Cost Trade-Offs for Composite Designs

Risk and cost trade-offs have been simulated using a probabilistic method. The probabilistic method accounts for all naturally-occurring uncertainties including those in constituent material properties, fabrication variables, structure geometry and loading conditions. The probability density function of first buckling load for a set of uncertain variables is computed. The probabilistic sensitivity factors of uncertain variables to the first buckling load is calculated. The reliability-based cost for a composite fuselage panel is defined and minimized with respect to requisite design parameters. The optimization is achieved by solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations whose coefficients are functions of probabilistic sensitivity factors. With optimum design parameters such as the mean and coefficient of variation (representing range of scatter) of uncertain variables, the most efficient and economical manufacturing procedure can be selected. In this paper, optimum values of the requisite design parameters for a predetermined cost due to failure occurrence are computationally determined. The results for the fuselage panel analysis show that the higher the cost due to failure occurrence, the smaller the optimum coefficient of variation of fiber modulus (design parameter) in longitudinal direction.

Shiao, Michael C.↗