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At least 289 records · Page 16

A14H-04 Analysis of Simulated and Observed Trends in Global Surface PM2.5 and Aerosol Optical Properties from 1958 to 2018 Using the NASA GEOSCCM

Modeling of long-term trends of aerosols and their properties is important for constraining aerosol-climate forcing, and for characterizing changes in particulate matter pollution speciation and exposure. Here we study global and regional long-term trends in surface fine particulate matter (PM ) and aerosol optical properties for 60 years from 1958 to 2018, using simulations performed with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM), and evaluate the model hindcast with observations for the last three decades. Comparing the modeled aerosols with a diverse set of observations helps interpret observed and simulated trends, and serves as a benchmark for future GEOSCCM developments and input datasets improvements. We first characterize modeled global and regional temporal changes in surface PM and its components, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA) and we interpret their link with emissions drivers. We then compare modeled surface PM with ground-based observations from monitoring networks and with global reconstructed PM datasets from observations-model data fusion. Total AOD is compared with long-term satellite measurements from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and measurements from the ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). Additional aerosol optical properties, such as absorption and scattering coefficients, are evaluated with ground-based observations from the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) records.

aerosols↗

Assessment of Long-term Trends in the Collection 4 Total Ozone Record from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument

Long-term changes in total ozone affect the amount of harmful UV radiation reaching Earth’s surface and reflect progress made towards recovery of stratospheric ozone. Satellite total ozone data are also used to estimate long-term trends in tropospheric ozone, a reactive and potent greenhouse gas, by subtracting the stratospheric column timeseries from that of total ozone. For these scientific applications, the long-term stability should be better than 1%. Left unchecked, instrument calibration drift can produce a trend of this magnitude or greater. NASA has produced nearly twenty years of total ozone data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) using the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) algorithm. The drift in the OMI instrument as monitored by ice radiance calibration has been relatively slow, but it has reached a level of ~3% over the mission lifetime. This drift was corrected in the recently released Collection 4 OMI calibrated radiances, updating the Collection 3 calibration released in 2006. We have reprocessed the OMI total ozone record using the Collection 4 calibration and updates to the TOMS algorithm. We summarize these changes and evaluate their impact by comparing to the previous Collection 3 OMI dataset, the Suomi NPP Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Nadir Mapper (OMPS-NM) and Solar Backscatter UV (SBUV) Merged Ozone Dataset (MOD) total ozone records and other independent satellite total ozone datasets. Climatological radiance residuals from OMI and OMPS-NM are calculated and compared to investigate differences in spectral calibration that can cause drifts in long-term total ozone trends. We also analyze the tropospheric ozone record produced using the Collection 4 OMI total ozone and stratospheric column ozone from MLS. Collection 3 OMI data processed with the TOMS algorithm show a positive drift relative to other satellite and ground-based data of 1-2 DU per decade. Initial results show that this drift is reduced in Collection 4 OMI, due to the updated OMI calibration. In this work we will quantify the improvements in Collection 4 OMI relative to independent data sources at both the ozone and radiance level

Collection 4 OMI Total Ozone↗

Satellite NO 2 Trends and Hotspots Over Offshore Oil and Gas Operations in the Gulf of Mexico

The Outer Continental Shelf of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is populated with numerous oil and natural gas (ONG) platforms which produce NO x (NO x = NO + NO 2 ), a major component of air pollution. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) is mandated to ensure that the air quality of coastal states is not degraded by these emissions. As part of a NASA-BOEM collaboration, we conducted a satellite data-based analysis of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) patterns and trends in the GOM. Data from the OMI and TROPOMI sensors were used to obtain 18+ year records of tropospheric column (TrC) NO 2 in three GOM regions: (a) Houston urban area, (b) near shore area off the Louisiana coast, and a (c) deepwater area off the Louisiana coast. The 2004–2022 time series show a decreasing trend for the urban (−0.027 DU/decade) and near shore (−0.0022 DU/decade) areas, and an increasing trend (0.0019 DU/decade) for the deepwater area. MERRA-2 wind and TROPOMI NO 2 data were used to reveal several NO2 hotspots (up to 25% above background values) under calm wind conditions near individual platforms. The NO 2 signals from these deepwater platforms and the high density of shallow water platforms closer to shore were confirmed by TrC NO 2 anomalies of up to 10%, taking into account the monthly TrC NO 2 climatology over the GOM. The results presented in this study establish a baseline for future estimates of emissions from the ONG hotspots and provide a methodology for analyzing NO 2 measurements from the new geostationary TEMPO instrument.

NO2↗

Trends in Tropical Circulation over the Pacific During the Last Decade

The Aqua spacecraft decadal time span generated a vast volume of data that can be used for climate change studies. Here we use these data to investigate the tropical circulation response to global warming during the last decade. We use the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Advance Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) data obtained on Aqua spacecraft to determine the trends in the surface and mid- troposphere temperatures, as well as trends in cloudiness, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and precipitation over the West and East Pacific in 2002-2011. The Aqua instruments deliver accurate, simultaneous measurements of the state of the atmosphere twice per day. We find that the tropical (Walker) circulation over Pacific Ocean has been accelerating during this last decade.

infrared sounder↗

Surface Ozone Variability and Trends over the South African Highveld from 1990 to 2007

Surface ozone is a secondary air pollutant formed from reactions between nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) and volatile organic compounds in the presence of sunlight. In this work we examine effects of the climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and NOx variability on surface ozone from 1990 to 2007 over the South African Highveld, a heavily populated region in South Africa with numerous industrial facilities. Over summer and autumn (December-May) on the Highveld, El Niño, as signified by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the central Pacific Ocean, is typically associated with drier and warmer than normal conditions favoring ozone formation. Conversely, La Niña, or negative SST anomalies over the central Pacific Ocean, is typically associated with cloudier and above normal rainfall conditions, hindering ozone production. We use a generalized regression model to identify any linear dependence that the Highveld ozone, measured at five air quality monitoring stations, may have on ENSO and NOx. Our results indicate that four out of the five stations exhibit a statistically significant sensitivity to ENSO at some point over the December-May period where El Niño amplifies ozone formation and La Niña reduces ozone formation. Three out of the five stations reveal statistically significant sensitivity to NOx variability, primarily in winter and spring. Accounting for ENSO and NOx effects throughout the study period of 18 years, two stations exhibit statistically significant negative ozone trends in spring, one station displays a statistically significant positive trend in August, and two stations show no statistically significant change in surface ozone.

NOx↗

Long-Term Ozone Variability and Trends from Reanalyses

Stratospheric ozone has a profound impact on radiation and chemistry over various spatial and temporal scales. The evolution of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century, however, is not well understood, especially in the lower stratosphere. Highly vertically resolved ozone data from satellite-borne limb sounders have proved to be invaluable for studying ozone in the middle and upper stratosphere but it was not until recently that these measurements were successfully incorporated in atmospheric reanalyses. Validation and comparison studies have demonstrated that the addition of observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on EOS (Earth Observing System) Aura greatly improved the quality of ozone fields in MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) making these assimilated data sets more useful for scientific research. In this presentation we demonstrate that multidecadal lower-stratospheric ozone variability and trends can be derived from NASA's MERRA-2 reanalysis ozone. In particular, the reanalysis ozone bias-corrected using a chemistry model simulation as a transfer function agrees very well with recently reprocessed long ozonesonde records. Ozone trends in the lower stratosphere will be discussed in the context of recent findings (Ball et al., 2018) and interpreted in connection with long-term circulation changes in the lower stratosphere. Next, we show that the use of ozone data retrieved from the next generation OMPS (Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite) instruments, including the OMPS Limb Profiler, can successfully extend the reanalyses into the future allowing comprehensive monitoring of global ozone and interpretation of its evolution during the critical period of expected ozone recovery and climate change from increasing concentration of greenhouse gases.

ozone↗

Improved Assessment of Recent Trends in NOx and VOC Emissions and Ozone Production Sensitivity Regimes Using Satellite Data

This presentation highlights results from a NASA Aura Science Team and Atmospheric Composition Modeling and Analysis Program (ACMAP) project which study the capability to observe and model trends in ozone (O3) production regimes using spaceborne sensors. Ultraviolet– visible (UV–Vis) tropospheric column satellite retrievals of formaldehyde (HCHO) (a proxy for volatile organic compound [VOC] reactivity) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (a proxy for nitrogen oxides [NOx]) are frequently used to investigate the sensitivity of O3 production to emissions of NOx and VOCs. There are challenges that come from using satellite-derived ratios of HCHO and NO2 (FNR) to study O3 production sensitivity with the largest uncertainties associated with specific spaceborne sensor’s retrieval biases and errors. This study quantifies the differences and improvements in satellite retrievals of O3 production sensitivity regimes using FNRs when moving from legacy polar orbiting satellites such as the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard NASA’s Aura satellite and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Nadir Mapper (OMPS-NM) onboard the NASA/NOAA Suomi-NPP platform to newer, higher spatiotemporal resolution satellite sensors TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and eventually the recently launched NASA geostationary sensor Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO). Furthermore, we investigate how using retrievals of NO2 and HCHO from these different satellites to constrain model predictions impacts the ability to accurately simulate O3 chemistry including chemical production regimes. To this end, we have conducted inverse model simulations, using the WRF-CMAQ-DDM data assimilation system at 12 km × 12 km, to constrain emissions of NOx and VOCs over the contiguous United States (CONUS) when assimilating OMI and TROPOMI retrievals of NO2 and HCHO. Two advantages of this are that we a) account for each satellite’s errors/biases in the emission estimation and b) update the prior profile to ensure that only radiance information is used for optimizing the emissions. This presentation will demonstrate: a) the varying accuracy of different satellite retrieved FNRs and ability to capture known sub-annual emission trends (e.g., seasonal, weekend/weekday) and emission anomalies during the COVID-19 lockdown of 2020, b) the differences and improvements in top-down emission estimates of NOx and VOCs when constrained by newer satellite sensors compared to legacy systems, and c) multi-sensor optimized emission estimates of summer-time NOx and VOCs between 2019-2021.

Data↗

Airbreathing propulsion system trends.

Among trends in airbreathing propulsion, the priority is shown to belong to the goal of quieting engines to a level no greater than the natural background noise level of the environment in which they operate. For military engines, not so severely noise-constrained, the possibility of stoichiometric gas-turbine engines is shown to be within reach. Very high bypass ratio propfans are especially suitable for V/STOL aircraft. Evolution of reliable variable-geometry inlets and exhaust nozzles characterizes trends in the supersonic regime.

Dugan, J. F., Jr.↗

Early childhood education: Status trends, and issues related to electronic delivery

The status of, and trends and issues within, early childhood education which are related to the possibilities of electronic delivery of educational service are considered in a broader investigation of the role of large scale, satellite based educational telecommunications systems. Data are analyzed and trends and issues discussed to provide information useful to the system designer who wishes to identify and assess the opportunities for large scale electronic delivery in early childhood education.

Rothenberg, D.↗

Fracture trends identified by ERTS-1 imagery in Utah and Nevada

The author has identified the following significant results. Structures clearly traceable through bed rock are considered most reliable. Continuity, however, is frequently traceable through ranges and across adjoining sedimentary basins where changes in drainage, erosion pattern, soil color, or vegetation suggest that the basin sediments are extremely sensitive to underlying structures. Many large and continuous trends, too smeared by erosion to be visible on the ground or from aircraft photos, become quite evident at the scale of the ERTS-1 images. The study was made with little regard for surface geology. The trends have been retraced to separate and unidirectional sets. These are now being related to surface geology, geophysical studies, volcanic and intrusive centers, and areas of mineralization.

Jensen, M. L.↗

The application of trend surface analysis to a portion of the Apollo 15 X-ray fluorescence data

X-ray fluorescence data for 8 and 16 second time integrals gathered by Apollo 15 in circum lunar orbit were analyzed to determine the capability for chemical mapping of relatively small lunar features in a portion of Tranquillitatis and Serenitatis basins. Spatial mapping using trend surface analysis demonstrated that a useable signal could be extracted from Al/Si intensity ratios calculated for 8 second time spans. Reliability of the Al/Si ratio was enhanced when 16 second data were compiled using a sliding average technique. Residual anomalies from the trend surface mapping were identified and correlated with relatively small lunar surface features.

Podwysocki, M. H.↗

High-lift aerodynamics: Trends, trades, and options

The trend toward the utilization of higher maximum lift coefficient with increased aircraft size and cruise velocities is discussed. The impact of this trend on the need for tradeoffs between cruise performance and takeoff, climb, and landing performance is examined. Theoretical methods for the analysis of the two-dimensional characteristics of flap systems are described and compared with experimental data. Four powered-lift concepts are described to outline some of the options currently being developed. Two jet-flap theories are described which provide analytical methods for estimation of the three-dimensional aerodynamic high-lift performance characteristics of powered lift systems.

Margason, R. J.↗

Classification of LANDSAT agricultural data based upon color trends

An automated classification procedure is described. The decision rules were developed for classifying an unknown observation by matching its color trend with that of expected trends for known crops. The results of this procedure were found to be encouraging when compared with the usual supervised classification procedures.

Tubbs, J. D.↗

Trends in computerized structural analysis and synthesis; Proceedings of the Symposium, Washington, D.C., October 30-November 1, 1978

The subjects considered are related to future directions of structural applications and potential of new computing systems, advances and trends in data management and engineering software development, advances in applied mathematics and symbolic computing, computer-aided instruction and interactive computer graphics, nonlinear analysis, dynamic analysis and transient response, structural synthesis, structural analysis and design systems, advanced structural applications, supercomputers, numerical analysis, and trends in software systems. Attention is given to the reliability and optimality of the finite element method, computerized symbolic manipulation in structural mechanics, a standard computer graphics subroutine package, and a drag method as a finite element mesh generation scheme.

Noor, A. K.↗

Comments on TEC trends

The paper comments on published and projected thermionic-energy-conversion (TEC) performance trends. This commentary includes graphs and an appendix relating TEC performance parameters, plots of predicted and actual TEC trends, a figure relating projected cost of electricity to overall efficiency for TEC topping, and a discussion of the implications of these relationships.

Morris, J. F.↗

Structural concept trends for commercial supersonic cruise aircraft design

Structural concept trends for future commercial supersonic transport aircraft are considered. Highlights, including the more important design conditions and requirements, of two studies are discussed. Knowledge of these design parameters, as determined through studies involving the application of flexible mathematical models, enabled inclusion of aeroelastic considerations in the structural-material concepts evaluation. The design trends and weight data of the previous contractual study of Mach 2.7 cruise aircraft were used as the basis for incorporating advanced materials and manufacturing approaches to the airframe for reduced weight and cost. Structural studies of design concepts employing advanced aluminum alloys, advanced composites, and advanced titanium alloy and manufacturing techniques are compared for a Mach 2.0 arrow-wing configuration concept. Appraisals of the impact of these new materials and manufacturing concepts to the airframe design are shown and compared. The research and development to validate the potential sources of weight and cost reduction identified as necessary to attain a viable advanced commercial supersonic transport are discussed.

Sakat, I. F.↗

Historical trend in the research and development of aircraft

Results are presented from a study of aircraft design trends undertaken to determine the relationship between research, development, test and evaluation and aircraft mission capability, requirements and objectives. It is shown that while in some cases a performance objective was the primary research driver, research was the driver in the formulation of objectives in others. Among the topics discussed are: (1) speed considerations such as compressibility, propulsion and test techniques; (2) airframe considerations such as swept, delta, trapezoidal and variable-sweep planforms and mission commonality; (3) research aircraft; (4) the recent impact of computer-aided design; (5) Soviet aircraft development approaches and (6) a comparison of Soviet and U.S. military aircraft design trends. Attention is given to experimental and prototype aircraft programs which, although cancelled, anticipated significant subsequent developments.

Spearman, M. L.↗