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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1981

Trends and pacing items in computational aerodynamics

A perspective is presented of trends in computational aerodynamics, and of important technology development items that pace future advanced applications. From a survey of AIAA Journal papers published during the past two decades, the growth trends and the progressively increasing emphasis on code development for viscous, compressible, turbulent flow are illustrated. These trends are reflected in the chronology of introduction by the aerospace industry of new computational methods in aircraft design. Key pacing items outlined are: automatic grid generation for nonlinear inviscid computations; advanced computers, improved efficiency of numerical methods, and improved turbulence models for Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computations; advanced computers, time-dependent three-dimensional law-of-the-wall, code development, improved efficiency of numerical methods, and improved subgrid-scale turbulence modeling for large eddy simulations.

Chapman, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Compositional trends in Apollo 16 soils

Data on the bulk chemical composition of the soils collected at and under the surface of the Apollo 16 landing site are synthesized and reviewed, with emphasis placed on the way in which the compositional trends within the soils relate to the site geology. Two distinct compositional mixing trends are discerned. One involves addition to this surface Cayley component of a material such as that ejected by North Ray Crater. The other is thought to be a segment of a mixing line between the average melt fraction of the local Cayley component and pure or nearly pure anorthosite. Grain size fractions of Apollo 16 soils exhibit a general trend of higher concentrations of large ion lithophile (LIL) elements associated with plagioclase in the finest fraction compared with the coarse fractions. The suite of pristine nonmare rocks (as currently recognized) is found to be insufficient to model the Apollo 16 soils.

Korotev, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Space Power Management and Distribution Status and Trends

An overview of space power management and distribution (PMAD) is provided which encompasses historical and current technology trends. The PMAD components discussed include power source control, energy storage control, and load power processing electronic equipment. The status of distribution equipment comprised of rotary joints and power switchgear is evaluated based on power level trends in the public, military, and commercial sectors. Component level technology thrusts, as driven by perceived system level trends, are compared to technology status of piece-parts such as power semiconductors, capacitors, and magnetics to determine critical barriers.

Reppucci, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Long-term downward trend in total solar irradiance

The first 5 years (from 1980 to 1985) of total solar irradiance observations by the first Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM I) experiment on board the Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft show a clearly defined downward trend of -0.019 percent/year. The existence of this trend has been confirmed by the internal self-calibrations of ACRIM I, by independent measurements from sounding rockets and balloons, and by observations from the Nimbus-7 spacecraft. The trend appears to be due to unpredicted variations of solar luminosity on time scales of years, and it may be related to solar cycle magnetic activity.

Willson, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Statistical analysis of total ozone and stratospheric Umkehr data for trends and solar cycle relationship

Dobson total ozone data from 1970-1984 and stratospheric Umkehr profile ozone data from 1970-1981 are analyzed. The relationship between ozone and long-term solar cycle activity is examined using 10.7 cm solar flux data. From the Dobson data it is estimated that the overall global trend in total ozone is -0.26 + or -0.92 percent per decade, which indicates no significant overall trend; and for the total ozone-solar flux relationship there is a 1.18 + or - 0.66 percent change in total ozone from solar cycle minimum to maximum that reveals a positive relationship. Analysis of the Umkehr data reveals a negative trend of -0.30 + or - 0.17 percent per year in the layers 7 snd 8. The relationship between Umkehr data and solar flux in layers 6 and 7 is 2.57 + or - 1.25 percent and 3.40 + or - 2.16 percent change from solar cycle minimum to maximum; however, no significant relationship is detected in the higher layers 8 and 9. These estimates are compared with theoretical model calculations. It is noted that the estimated effects of solar cycle activity on total ozone and stratospheric ozone agree with calculations of photochemical models.

Reinsel, Gregory C.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Spacecraft technology trends - A view from the past

Future spacecraft will be sent on missions to complete the exploration of the solar system, to return samples from celestial bodies, record the process of creation of stars, galaxies, and the universe itself, to provide a continuous record of earth processes, and to maintain vital space communications. A key ingredient to projecting the future is to comprehend the historic record and to understand the significance of trends. This paper focuses on spacecraft cost and life trends, as well as those of the major subsystems. Throughout the history of the 'space age' there has been significant progress in the performance of spacecraft and their subsystems. However, various aspects of spacecraft performance lag behind what is technically feasible by a considerable margin. In addition, examination of the historical trend implies that future spacecraft will likely continue to be relatively unique in their design features. This is in contrast to the technically realizable future attributes such as large space platforms, modularity, system autonomy and on-orbit repair and servicing.

Hudson, Wayne R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Toward an improved global network for determination of tropospheric ozone climatology and trends

Current data on ozone variability on daily, monthly, annual, and interannual time scales were used for a standard trend-prediction analysis. Using the results of this analysis, together with a quantitative theory that defines the 'effectively sampled region' for an observing station, a definition was developed for a global network capable of determining ozone climatology and ozone trends with uncertainties not above 1 percent per year at the 95 percent confidence level. The definition indicates a need for at least a doubling of the present number of stations; the areas where more stations are most needed include the oceans, most of Asia, Africa, and South America. It is pointed out that differential absorption lidar ozone instruments have the potential for far more frequent measurements of ozone vertical profiles and, hence, potentially more accurate climatology and trend determinations than the ozonesondes; however, the differential-absorption lidar ozone measurements may produce a biased data set above the cloud base.

Prinn, Ronald G.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Trends in environmentally induced spacecraft anomalies

The Spacecraft Anomaly Data Base was useful in identifying trends in anomaly occurrence. Trends alone do not provide quantitative testimony to a spacecraft's reliability, but they do indicate areas that command closer study. An in-depth analysis of a specific anomaly can be expensive and difficult without access to the spacecraft. Statistically verified anomaly trends can provide a good reference point to begin anomaly analysis. Many spacecraft experience an increase in anomalies during the period of several days centered on the solar equinox, a period that is also correlated with sun eclipse at geostationary altitude and an increase in major geomagnetic storms. Increase anomaly occurrence can also be seen during the local time interval between midnight and dawn. This local time interval represents a region in Earth's near space that experiences an enhancement in electron plasma density due to a migration from the magnetotail during or following a geomagnetic substorm.

Wilkinson, Daniel C.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Launch commit criteria performance trending analysis, phase 1, revision A. SRM and QA mission services

An assessment of quantitative methods and measures for measuring launch commit criteria (LCC) performance measurement trends is made. A statistical performance trending analysis pilot study was processed and compared to STS-26 mission data. This study used four selected shuttle measurement types (solid rocket booster, external tank, space shuttle main engine, and range safety switch safe and arm device) from the five missions prior to mission 51-L. After obtaining raw data coordinates, each set of measurements was processed to obtain statistical confidence bounds and mean data profiles for each of the selected measurement types. STS-26 measurements were compared to the statistical data base profiles to verify the statistical capability of assessing occurrences of data trend anomalies and abnormal time-varying operational conditions associated with data amplitude and phase shifts.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1989

Methods for trend analysis: Examples with problem/failure data

Statistics are emphasized as an important role in quality control and reliability. Consequently, Trend Analysis Techniques recommended a variety of statistical methodologies that could be applied to time series data. The major goal of the working handbook, using data from the MSFC Problem Assessment System, is to illustrate some of the techniques in the NASA standard, some different techniques, and to notice patterns of data. Techniques for trend estimation used are: regression (exponential, power, reciprocal, straight line) and Kendall's rank correlation coefficient. The important details of a statistical strategy for estimating a trend component are covered in the examples. However, careful analysis and interpretation is necessary because of small samples and frequent zero problem reports in a given time period. Further investigations to deal with these issues are being conducted.

Church, Curtis K.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The new Space Shuttle Transportation System (STS) - Problem, performance, supportability, and programmatic trending program

This paper describes the NASA Space Shuttle Trend Analysis program. The four main areas of the program - problem/reliability, performance, supportability, and programmatic trending - are defined, along with motivation for these areas, the statistical methods used, and illustrative Space Shuttle applications. Also described is the NASA Safety, Reliability, Maintainability and Quality Assurance (SRM&QA) Management Information Center, used to focus management attention on key near-term launch concerns and long-range mission trend issues. Finally, the computer data bases used to support the program and future program enhancements are discussed.

Crawford, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Estimating Confidence In Data Via Trend Analysis

Recursive equation defines probability-density function storing trends in noisy or potentially erroneous data. Part of algorithm for analysis of trends in data. Developed to determine reliability of data from sensor used to guide robot, and mathematical approach that it represents proves valuable in other applications. Enables computation of statistic (called "confidence statistic") indicating level of confidence in new datum. Generates confidence statistic high or low, depending on whether new datum consistent or inconsistent with previous trends.

Gutow, David A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Atmospheric emissions and trends of nitrous oxide deduced from 10 years of ALE-GAGE data

Long-term measurements of nitrous oxide (N2O) obtained during the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (ALE) and the Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (GAGE) for a period from 1978 to 1988 are presented and interpreted. It is observed that the average concentration in the Northern Hemisphere is 0.75 +/- 0.16 ppbv higher than in the Southern Hemisphere and that the global average linear trend in N2O lies in the range from 0.25 to 0.31 percent/year. The measured trends and latitudinal distributions are shown to be consistent with the hypothesis that stratospheric photodissociation is the major atmospheric sink for N2O, while the cause of the N2O trend is suggested to be a combination of a growing tropical source and a growing Northern mid-latitude source. A 10-year average global N2O emission rate of (20.5 +/- 2.4) x 10 to the 12th g N2O/year is deduced from the ALE/GAGE data.

Prinn, R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A case study in nonconformance and performance trend analysis

As part of NASA's effort to develop an agency-wide approach to trend analysis, a pilot nonconformance and performance trending analysis study was conducted on the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU). The purpose of the study was to (1) demonstrate that nonconformance analysis can be used to identify repeating failures of a specific item (and the associated failure modes and causes) and (2) determine whether performance parameters could be analyzed and monitored to provide an indication of component or system degradation prior to failure. The nonconformance analysis of the APU did identify repeating component failures, which possibly could be reduced if key performance parameters were monitored and analyzed. The performance-trending analysis verified that the characteristics of hardware parameters can be effective in detecting degradation of hardware performance prior to failure.

Maloy, Joseph E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Total ozone trends deduced from Nimbus 7 TOMS data

The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) on the Nimbus 7 satellite has been measuring the total column amount of ozone over the globe for more than 11 years. Recent improvements in the data analysis have led to a technique for determining and removing drift in the calibration such that the data at the end of the record are precise to + or - 1.3 percent (2-sigma) relative to the data at the beginning of the record. A statistical model, including terms for seasonal variation, linear trend, quasi-biennial oscillation, solar cycle and second-order autoregressive noise has been fit to the TOMS time series of total ozone data. The linear trend obtained when this statistical model is fit to the TOMS data averaged between 65 N and 65 S latitudes is -0.26 + or - 0.14 percent/year or -3 percent over the 11.6 year time period from November 1978 to May 1990. The trend is near zero (0.0002 + or - 0.2 percent/year) at the equator and increases toward both poles.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Global trends

Measuring trends in ozone, and most other geophysical variables, requires that a small systematic change with time be determined from signals that have large periodic and aperiodic variations. Their time scales range from the day-to-day changes due to atmospheric motions through seasonal and annual variations to 11 year cycles resulting from changes in the sun UV output. Because of the magnitude of all of these variations is not well known and highly variable, it is necessary to measure over more than one period of the variations to remove their effects. This means that at least 2 or more times the 11 year sunspot cycle. Thus, the first requirement is for a long term data record. The second related requirement is that the record be consistent. A third requirement is for reasonable global sampling, to ensure that the effects are representative of the entire Earth. The various observational methods relevant to trend detection are reviewed to characterize their quality and time and space coverage. Available data are then examined for long term trends or recent changes in ozone total content and vertical distribution, as well as related parameters such as stratospheric temperature, source gases and aerosols.

Megie, G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Comparisons of observed ozone and temperature trends in the lower stratosphere

One result of the ozone assessment (WMO, 1989) is that there is a significant negative ozone trend in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere from 1970 through 1986. The relationship of this trend in ozone to that of temperature in the same altitude region is examined utilizing a 62-station set of rawinsonde data, and the results are compared to the changes in temperature determined from a radiative equilibrium model calculation. The calculated and observed trends in lower stratospheric temperature indicate substantial agreement in the shape and magnitude of the vertical profiles.

Miller, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Ozone and temperature trends

An update of the extensive reviews of the state of knowledge of measured ozone trends published in the Report of the International Ozone Trends Panel is presented. The update contains a review of progress since these reports, including reviewing of the ozone records, in most cases through March 1991. Also included are some new, unpublished reanalyses of these records including a complete reevaluation of 29 stations located in the former Soviet Union. The major new advance in knowledge of the measured ozone trend is the existence of independently calibrated satellite data records from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAG) instruments. These confirm many of the findings, originally derived from the Dobson record, concerning northern mid-latitude changes in ozone. We now have results from several instruments, whereas the previously reported changes were dependent on the calibration of a single instrument. This update will compare the ozone records from many different instruments to determine whether or not they provide a consistent picture of the ozone change that has occurred in the atmosphere. The update also briefly considers the problem of stratospheric temperature change. As in previous reports, this problem received significantly less attention, and the report is not nearly as complete. This area needs more attention in the future.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗